The old AFC Central loses one good team (Tennessee) and one bad one (Jacksonville). The stocks of the Ohio teams (Cincinnati and Cleveland) are rising, while Baltimore’s is plummeting. The only steady team is Pittsburgh, which should win the first division title with ease. This will be an interesting division to watch, especially if the Ohio teams can push down Baltimore twice each. The wild cards are likely to go to the second place finishers in the South and West, however, so even though the Bengals and Browns will make some noise, don’t expect a playoff appearance from either. PITTSBURGH: (13-3) should have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl, but let big plays ruin their chances. Unlike recent years where free agency has pillaged their roster, this time they return just about everyone, with the only notable change being letting go of linebacker Earl Holmes in favor of free agent James Farrior. Wide receiver Plaxico Burress finally lived up to his potential, and alongside Hines Ward comprised the team’s best duo since Stallworth and Swann of the 1970’s dynasty. No, they are not as good, but they get the job done. They let Will Blackwell go, and Bobby Shaw takes his talents to Jacksonville, but they signed veteran Terance Mathis to adequately fill their #3 role. Jerome Bettis was sidelined by injury late in the season, and his recovery is pivotal to the team’s success in the playoffs, but with Amos Zeroeue around they should coast in the regular season regardless. The other major change was kicking Kris Brown to the curb in favor of place kicker Todd Peterson, which can only be seen as a good thing. Not surprisingly, they took a guard with their first pick in the draft, and with few holes to fill they took a chance by selecting playmaker Antwaan Randle El in the second round. Listed as a wide receiver, he also played quarterback and is a great athlete. <p>The schedule is about the easiest in the NFL, especially after the first 2 games when the only playoff teams they meet are Baltimore and Tampa Bay, both on the road. They open in New England with a chance to avenge their AFC championship gam defeat. Then Oakland comes to town, in a matchup that probably should have been for the AFC title last year if not for the dumbest rule ever put on paper. Other than the aforementioned pair of road games, only trips to Cleveland and Tennessee pose any problems, and aside from the finale against Baltimore no team the rest of the way comes to Heinz Field that won over 7 games in 2001. They are your #1 seed, and teams will have to wrestle the AFC title game from them.

CLEVELAND: (10-6) is another young, growing team from Ohio that is ready to step up their game in 2002. They did well in free agency in that they replaced the two offensive lineman, defensive end and running back they lost, and picked up a pair of defensive linemen and linebackers to bolster an improving unit. The youthful offense is led by Tim Couch who needs to take charge in this his third season. William Green was drafted to stimulate the running game that sputtered under rookie James Jackson and others last year. Kevin Johnson is one of the better young receivers in the game, but he needs the other youngsters on the team to develop as well. Fellow starter Quincy Morgan made just 30 catches in 2001, his rookie season, and JuJuan Dawson made only 22 in an injury shortened campaign. Andre King and Dennis Northcutt are in their second and third years respectively. Those 4 wideouts have just 56 starts among them, making KJ the veteran of the squad having made every start over his 3 seasons. They also drafted Andre Davis in the second round. <p>The defense is solid, and gets a new middle linebacker in Earl Holmes. They allowed 17 points or fewer in 9 games, posting a 6-3 record, but in the other 7 games, when they gave up 24 points or more, they went 1-6. Likewise, when they scored 20 points or more they went 6-1, and scored just 108 points (12.0 average) during their 9 losses. So if the offense can pick it up, this team could definitely contend. After all, they lost heartbreakers to Seattle (9-6) and Jacksonville (15-10) and took division champs Chicago and Pittsburgh to OT before losing. Turn those games around and they go 11-5. Opening at home against Kansas City and Cincinnati could give them a 2-0 jump, but then they travel to Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay over the next 4 weeks, with a home game against Baltimore mixed in. They host Houston, but then travel to the NY Jets before hosting Pittsburgh in a game that could drop them to 4-5. That’s where the fun begins though, because the only opponent over the final 7 that made the playoffs is dismantled Baltimore. The other roadies are Cincinnati, New Orleans and Jacksonville, with home games against Carolina, Indianapolis and Atlanta. Going 6-1 in that span is within reason, and this team could make a serious playoff rush if they can pull an upset or two in the first half. Either way, they are going to be a force in 2003.

CINCINNATI: (9-7) is really going to show improvement this season. They dropped 3 in a row late in the season by a combined 8 points, and beat eventual champion New England and defending champion Baltimore in back to back weeks to open the season. They also beat Pittsburgh in week 16. The biggest improvement is on defense, where they get good linebacker play and are far removed from the unit that regularly gave up 30 points a game. The offense is young and improving as well, with stud running back Dillon, flashy playmaker Warrick at wide receiver, and newcomer Westbrook to play alongside him. If either Chad Johnson or Ron Dugans can step up, this could be a solid group of receivers. Gus Frerotte was acquired to help the quarterback spot, but isn’t much of an upgrade over Jon Kitna. Whoever gets the job needs to limit turnovers and allow the running game and defense to win games. They did an solid job in free agency, re-signing all their key players and acquiring cornerback Burris, and defensive end Ogbogu along with Westbrook. Losing wideout Darnay Scott and tight end Tony McGee is going to have zero effect. <p>The draft produced a surprise pick at #10 overall in Levi Jones, but when you base your team on running Dillon, it makes sense. Other than that, getting place kicker Travis Dorsch to replace much maligned Neil Rackers will also help. The season opens favorably, with San Diego coming to town, followed by a trip across state to Cleveland and then down to Atlanta. Then comes a telling stretch when Tampa Bay stops by, followed by a roadie in Indianapolis and visits from Pittsburgh and Tennessee. They could be 3-4 at that point, but should be able to get wins in visits to Houston and Baltimore, and then beat Cleveland at home to move to 6-4 before losing in Pittsburgh. The end of the season is when they could make their run, with home games against Baltimore, Jacksonville, and New Orleans and visits to Carolina and Buffalo. The weather in Buffalo may cause problems, but this is a team that should go 9-7 or better.

BALTIMORE: (5-11) shot their wad trying to repeat as champs, and fell way short by getting blown out of the playoffs in Pittsburgh. Now they have lost their starting quarterback (Elvis Grbac), #1 wide receiver (Qadry Ismail), starting tight end (Shannon Sharpe), and kick return extraordinaire (Jermaine Lewis). Even worse, their feature back (Jamal Lewis) is returning from an ACL injury that cost him the entire 2001 season. What they are left with for starting wider receivers is once promising Travis Taylor, who would probably be a #3 wideout on most teams, and Brandon Stokley, who starred in the Super Bowl, but hasn’t done a thing since. The good news is that they have Todd Heap at tight end, a guy who will quickly make people forget about Shannon Sharpe and his big mouth. The quarterback situation might turn out better as well. Redman has been given the starting nod because they want to know what he can do, but Jeff Blake has been brought in for insurance and is probably going to have the job before long. Both are better than unsure Elvis Grbac who would rather play Mr. Mom that be an NFL quarterback. The total wreckage was 18 players lost, and amazingly, 11 teams will boast former Ravens next year, with the Texans, Broncos, and Vikings having 2 each. Blake was the only free agent signed. <p>They drafted 10 players, and you better believe that all of them will make the team, even though none stands out as an immediate impact player. Even with the loss of talent, there are still teams the Ravens can beat, and lucky for them at least 4 are on the schedule, with Jacksonville visiting, and Carolina, Atlanta and Houston among the road trips. If anyone thinks they will handle the Ohio teams, don’t forget that they were 1-3 against them in 2001 when they fielded a much better team, and the losses were by an average of 10.3 points. Billick’s arrogance has brought this on, so enjoy last place Brian, and wipe that smirk off your face.