This is by far the worst division top to bottom in the NFL and it is possible that a team in another division will miss the playoffs even with a better record than the North champs. The Bengals have gotten very little respect in the media while everyone is ready to crown the Ravens even with no passing game. On the other side of the coin, the Steelers have suddenly fallen flat and the Browns are mixing a lot of different parts together and hoping they can mesh in a hurry. Cincinnati (9-7, first place)

They are taking a huge risk by appointing Palmer the starter before he has thrown a single pass in a regular season game, but nevertheless I’m looking forward to his first meeting with former Pac-10 rival Kyle Boller (Cal Berkeley) of Baltimore. That’s going to be worth watching. On the plus side, the Bengals have plenty of weapons around him. Chad Johnson is making an argument as one of the top five receivers in the game. Peter Warrick has found himself after picking up 976 yards on 97 touches last year. Kelley Washington had a solid rookie year with a stout 13.6 receiving average and 4 touchdown catches. Then there is the running game, which should be in good hands if Rudi Johnson can handle the pressure, and they drafted Chris Perry just in case. With all of that offense it isn’t surprising that their demise last year was the defense. They allowed every team to score at least 17 points and averaged 24.0 for the season, fourth worst in the NFL. I have to think that Marvin Lewis will start to have an impact in that department. They got help in the secondary with Herring at safety and O’Neal at corner, and they also spent both second round picks in the secondary with Keiwan Ratliff (CB) and Madieu Williams (FS). They also took a pair of linebackers in the third round and two defensive linemen in the fourth round. If nothing else, that will give them plenty of depth. The line suffered some turnover with three departures and three arrivals, so we’ll see how the new unit shapes up. The key for them will be to take care of business in their division because the rest of their schedule is very tough. Road trips to New England, Philadelphia, Washington and Tennessee will not be fun. Neither will visits from Miami, Dallas and Denver. They will probably go 2-5 or 3-4 in those games. It is key for them to beat AFC East foes Buffalo (home) and NY Jets (away) if they want to win the division. In the end, they are a 9-7 team that is building on something much better.

Baltimore (7-9, second place)

I don’t know how you can confidently turn your team over to a guy who in 9 starts last year exceeded 156 yards only once. That takes a lot of courage. The problem I have is that just when they get something going in the passing game with Wright lobbing bombs to Robinson, they bench Wright (who is now hurt) and let Robinson leave for Minnesota. Travis Taylor seemed to be building towards a viable #1 receiver after a solid 2002 (61 receptions, 869 yards, 6 touchdowns) but his numbers fell down about 25% last year. He still caught 3 of the 16 touchdowns and the only ones by a receiver still on the team (Robinson had 6, Tight ends Heap and Jones each had 3). Can they really rely on the rushing game to repeat their 167.1 average? It is hard to imagine how any team beat them with their +71.1 yard advantage on the ground per game, but then again they were dead last in passing with a 140.9 average so when it came to third down they were done. The defense is still there even after losing a step or two, but they did nothing to improve in the offseason. Don’t expect Deion Sanders to make much of an impact if he does sign on. The Owens debacle left them trading for wide receiver Kevin Johnson, who will help the passing game a little, as might third round pick Devard Darling. However, in the NFL you need to get a lot better each year just to stay in the hunt. They haven’t done that.

Cleveland (6-10, third place)

They are ready to implode. The backfield is unsettled with William Green battling Lee Suggs, who may or may not be ready to run the ball effectively for a team that historically has problems doing just that, Jeff Garcia inherits a team that just lost two of their better wide receivers and their defense got mugged at the end of last season. With an outside chance at a playoff run sitting on 4-7 they gave up 34, 26, 23 and 35 on consecutive weeks, all losses. With Garcia coming in, he won’t have an Owens to lean on but rather will have to throw to Morgan and Davis, both mediocre players. His running days are probably behind him as well so he’s not the playmaker he once was. The only plus for them is that they got a pair of potential impact players in the draft in first round pick Winslow (TE) and second round selection Sean Jones (FS). This will be a frustrating year for Winslow, however, and you can expect plenty of crying from him to the press.

Pittsburgh (5-11, fourth place)

Roethlisberger gives the division yet another young gun and leaves Cleveland fans crying after former #1 Couch’s failures. The Steelers have wasted a lot of good opportunities in recent years to make a run and now it appears they are going through the dreaded rebuilding process. It might not take very long if they can find a young stud running back in next year’s draft given the rest of the young surrounding talent on offense. What really surprised me about last season was their porous defense. Giving up 30+ points in 5 of your first 10 games is a good way to start 3-7. Truth be told, however, it was the offense that stunk. They had only 7 games where they hit 20 points and were 4-3 in those games. If Staley gives them a spark out of the backfield they might improve on their 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In the final analysis, schedule is irrelevant, they aren’t deep, aren’t intimidating and worse yet they don’t have a quarterback to do better than 6-10. Aside from Staley they did nothing in free agency other than get aging corner Willie Williams back from Seattle. The draft produced Big Ben for the future, but for the present they got only second round selection Colclough (CB) who might help the secondary. This could be the end for Cowher, who must be thankful for signing an extension this summer.