This is the first of my weekly predictions. For the record, last year I was 165-83 (66.5%) picking winners straight up and 127-113-8 (52.8%) against the spread. I went 123-125 (49.6%) on the over/under. So in other words I’m not going to make you rich in Vegas, but I’ll give you about 2 of 3 winning teams. Last season my best weeks straight up were 13-1 and 14-1. Against the spread I had a 10-4-1 and a 9-4-1, while against the over/under my bests were 10-3 with four 9-5 weeks. Needless to say I also tanked, with my worst straight up being a 5-8. Against the spread my worst was 3-11-1 with another 4-9, while in the over/under I suffered through a trio of 5-10 weeks.

I’m taking 15 of 16 favored teams, guaranteeing that I won’t have that great of a week, but it feels right to me. Typically there are about 3 major eye opening games in the opening week. Potentially those are wins from Tennessee, Buffalo and Cincinnati. I could see Denver, Kansas City or Carolina winning, but I’m not going to predict it at this point.

San Francisco (-3) @ NY Giants (under 39.5)

The 49ers are going to struggle in this one a lot more than people expect. Mostly because they just seem rusty to me. Their offense never hit high gear in the preseason. They likely won’t here either because the G-Men still have a decent defense, which gets better at home. They also have a possibly explosive offense once they get going. This is going to be a typical bruising affair, and San Francisco is going to skate by in a game that New York will probably feel they could have won: San Francisco 24, NY Giants 14

Buffalo (+3) vs. NY Jets (under 40.5)

Yes, the Jets went to the playoffs last year while the Bills couldn’t beat anyone, but this is one game that Drew Bledsoe won’t lose. Let’s face it, he has a lot of weapons and he knows how to use them. The Jets are not improved over last year, and quite frankly don’t strike fear into their opponents. Expect Bledsoe to have a solid if not spectacular outing (ie 250 yards 2 TD’s) and for Travis Henry to get plenty of rushing attempts in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Testaverde will toss a pair of INT’s while trying to lead his team back: Buffalo 20, NY Jets 14

Chicago (-4.5) vs. Minnesota (over 41)

Da Bears take their show on the road. Well, sort of. They go up the road to Champaign, Illinois while Soldier Field gets a face-lift. No matter, because the invading Vikings have a paper thin defense and simply can’t score with them. It might be exciting football, but clearly the home team is going to keep the visitors at bay most of the afternoon in one of the rare high scoring affairs: Chicago 31, Minnesota 17

Cincinnati (-2) vs. San Diego (under 38)

I honestly don’t know why the Bengals aren’t getting more respect from the odds makers. They finally have a smart quarterback now that Frerotte is in charge, and are led by a stud running back in the form of Dillon. The defense has shored up their holes, and overall they are a step above the lower tier teams like San Diego. After all, the Chargers are basically hoping their second year QB/RB tandem of Brees/Tomlinson can carry them because they have little else on offense. Defensively they can still step up, but can be worn down, especially on the road, which is what happens here: Cincinnati 24, San Diego 13

Cleveland (-2.5) vs. Kansas City (over 37)

The Browns are just hoping that quarterback Tim Couch is at full strength, and the rest is gravy. It also marks the debut of rookie running back William Green who is trying to resurrect a team that was dead last in rushing last year. He won’t light the world on fire, but he will provide a spark. Kansas City has no wide receivers and a turnover prone quarterback to go with their star tight end and solid feature back. Not enough dimensions to compete in the NFL. The dog pounds woofs: Cleveland 27, Kansas City 14

Green Bay (-7) vs. Atlanta (under 43)

It’s hard to believe the Favre was once a Falcon, but what’s easy to believe is that he’s going to destroy his old team. Atlanta is not a good road team, and not good period when you get down to it. They have a controversy waiting to happen in their backfield because Dunn wants to be the main man. They have unheralded wide receivers, and a flashy but inconsistent quarterback. The Packers are going to lay it on thick: Green Bay 34, Atlanta 6

Tennessee (-1) vs. Philadelphia (under 37)

Hard to believe the Eagles are ‘dogs in this one? It shouldn’t be. The Titans played a lot of teams tough last year, and would easily have made the playoffs if Eddie George had been at full strength. I see this game boiling down to which team controls the tempo by running the ball. Philly’s backfield is comprised of oft-injured/inconsistent Staley, aging Levens and rookie Westbrook while the Titans will ride George. Neither team is going to pass for 200 yards, and it probably boils down to a missed field goal here or there: Tennessee 16, Philadelphia 14

Miami (-8) vs. Detroit (over 35.5)

They might need to wave the white flag in this one. The Dolphins know how to play defense, and Detroit has zero offense. Ricky Williams is going to have a sparkling debut because they are going to be in scoring position almost every time they get the ball. I would not be surprised with a 40 carry effort if they choose to let him stay in the game that long, which is doubtful. More likely Travis Minor will get 10 or 15 carries while they mop up this massacre: Miami 34, Detroit 6

Washington (-7) vs. Arizona (under 44)

Am I the only one who noticed that the “high powered” Washington offense was shut out twice in the first half this preseason? For those scoring at home, that’s first string time. Without question this team’s defense is going to be the focus early on in the season. Arizona has a much improved offense, but not enough to contend with the best linebacking corps in the NFL. A solid opener from Steve Spurrier, but a far cry from the 42-7 most will be predicting: Washington 27, Arizona 13

Baltimore (-2) at Carolina (under 33.5)

Incredibly, the Panthers feel they have a better chance to win with Rodney Peete, who couldn’t keep a job on the Raiders as a #3 and hasn’t seen regular season action in 3 years. Enter Ray Lewis and his defense, and you’ve got trouble. This one could get ugly early on, and if only for one week Ravens’ RB Jamal Lewis will look like his old self. In a game featuring probably 2 of the 5 worst offenses, it will be Baltimore’s ability to set up their defense that will be the difference: Baltimore 20, Carolina 9

Indianapolis (-3.5) at Jacksonville (over 43.5)

The Colts get to welcome the Jags into the new AFC South, and it should be a rude awakening. Jacksonville has a sputtering offense featuring oft-injured feature back Fred Taylor and fresh off the holdout line wide receiver Jimmy Smith. They are going to be asleep at the start, and with the arsenal Indy has it will be over early. In Dungy’s return to Florida, people will be hard pressed to remember him as a defensive minded coach following this one: Indianapolis 35, Jacksonville 17

St. Louis (-3) at Denver (over 51.5)

Over the past 5 seasons each of these teams has a pair of Super Bowl trips, but unfortunately for Denver their trips were on the front side of that window. The Rams offense is in high gear, and while Denver has a lot of weapons now that McCaffrey and Sharpe are back in the fold, they are not ready to out score the Rams. However, it will be entertaining to watch them try. On the downside, there will be so much passing it might be hard for fantasy watchers to figure out if it will be Portis or Gary down the line: St. Louis 38, Denver 27

Oakland (-7) vs. Seattle (over 41)

The Raiders smell fresh meat in the form of Hasselbeck, and in recent history they have torn apart teams with weak starting quarterbacks. Their defense is starting to kick it up a notch, as evidenced by their ability to release LB Biekert and call it for cap reasons. The real reason is he’s not good enough to play on this defense any longer. The offense is going to take a week or two to get back to their typical performance, but in this one they will look a lot better because Seattle won’t move the ball: Oakland 34, Seattle 14

Tampa Bay (-5.5) vs. New Orleans (under 37.5)

Gruden’s debut is going to answer a lot of questions about his offensive genius. He has all the parts, but can he make them work together? I think so, but it will take time. For the first few weeks it will still be the defense that leads this team to victories. In New Orleans I see a team with question marks on offense in the form of new feature back McAllister and anointed #2 wide receiver Stallworth, who is a rookie. They need time to put it all together, and the Bucs’ defense is not going to let that happen: Tampa Bay 23, New Orleans 13

Dallas (-7.5) at Houston (over 33)

Ouch. That’s what I’ll be feeling for David Carr when this hungry young Dallas defense eats his lunch. Emmitt Smith is going to run all over this patched up defense, and Quincy Carter won’t need to do much which is good because he’s a little on the weak side. Cleveland lost 43-0 in their opener, but that was against Pittsburgh, a much better team. I expect Dallas to lay down the wood, just not that hard: Dallas 31, Houston 6

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at New England (over 37)

How many defending Super Bowl champions are underdogs at home in the season opener? Well, only the ones who fluked their way to the title and didn’t improve in the off-season. Pittsburgh, however, did improve. They have a pair of more capable wide receivers with rookie Randle El and veteran Mathis. Jerome Bettis is healthy, which he wasn’t in the playoffs. The team lost basically no one who mattered, and is out for revenge. New England signed guys like WR Donald Hayes, are you kidding me? They are opening up Gilette Stadium, and someone should have bribed the schedule maker to send them a duck instead of a cannonball to the head: Pittsburgh 27, New England 13