Eight teams went into last week at 2-0, and 6 of them came out at 3-0, the most possible since New Orleans met Chicago and Oakland was off. Teams I was impressed with in week 2 went 5-0 so I guess some of the time I know what I’m talking about. Miami impressed me for the second time in a row, and New Orleans for the third straight week. Philadelphia was the only other team to do so, and they did it for the first time this year. They go up against teams with a combined 2-7 record, so naturally I’m taking all 3 to win this week.

Last week I went 10-4 straight up, 6-8 against the spread and 6-8 on the over/under. I was pretty disappointed in Washington losing by 10 on a 9 point spread, and with Detroit’s garbage time scoring giving them the cover. Chicago also blew a 20-0 lead. I did pick the EXACT score on the Denver vs. Buffalo game, thank you very much. So on the season I am 27-19 straight up, 19-26-1 against the spread, and 22-24 on the over/under. The oddsmakers were 10-4 picking winners this week and 6-8 against the spread. There were 6 overs and 8 unders. On the year tey are 24-22 picking winners and 16-29-1 against the spread. There have been 24 overs and 22 unders.

Carolina (3-0) @ Green Bay (2-1) pick GB –7 (over 43)

Sooner or later, the madness must stop. If someone had been in a coma since say February, 1996 they might think this is a blockbuster rematch of the NFC title game. For the rest of us, it’s “expose the fraud” week in Wisconsin. The Panthers have averaged a 21-9 win over a trio of teams that are a combined 0-5 against the rest of the NFL. They’ve gotten almost 300 yards out of Lamar Smith, and a pair of quality starts at quarterback from ancient Rodney Peete. I don’t have a clue whether or not Ahman Green starts for the Pack this week, and I don’t care. Green Bay is putting up more points than Carolina can handle, and their defense is getting to where they need to be, even if they suffered a couple of injuries this week: Green Bay 31, Carolina 17

Chicago (2-1) @ Buffalo (1-2) pick BUF –3 (over 44)

This is going to be a much better game than most people think. The Bears have shown that regardless of the quality of their opposition, they’re going to make it close. They’ve beaten a bad Minnesota team (27-23 coming from behind) and a mediocre Atlanta team (14-13 when the Falcons missed a late field goal) while blowing a big lead while losing to a good New Orleans team (29-23). The Bills share their “keep it close” mentality, having won in OT over that same bad Minnesota team (45-39) while losing on a pair of kickoff returns for scores to the mediocre Jets (37-31 in OT) and the solid Broncos (28-23). For my money, that’s a very even showing. Both teams have been outscored slightly on the season, and Chicago’s games have produced about 20 points fewer on average. I’ll split the difference: Buffalo 28, Chicago 24

Cleveland (2-1) @ Pittsburgh (0-2) pick CLE +6.5 (under 43)

As about a million people have already said, “if not for that Dwayne Rudd play, this team is 3-0”. Cleveland has had a pair of 300+ yard days through the air, which does not bode well for Pittsburgh, who has given up just shy of 700 yards to Brady and Gannon. I have to think the Steelers have taken the two weeks between games to adjust. It’s not like the Browns are going to do anything running the ball with rookie Willie Green looking awful, and Jamel White not good enough for them not to draft a back in the first round. The Steelers will sit in their nickel and dime all day if they have to. The problem might be their offense, which has struggled mightily. Bettis has 18 carries for 76 yards in the 2 losses, and Stewart has averaged around 220 yards passing. Wide receiver Plaxico Burress has been invisible. You know what? None of it really matters, because Cowher is not the longest tenured coach in the NFL for no reason. He’ll have them ready, and they’ll get it done. But somehow I think the Browns cover: Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 14

Dallas (1-2) @ St. Louis (0-3) pick STL –11 (over 43)

If ever there was a team that needed to get out their frustrations, it’s the Rams. For the season Warner has just 1 TD and 7 picks? This isn’t Ryan Leaf we’re talking about. I don’t care if Faulk is in jeans on the sidelines, the offense is going to get started in this game. Mostly because Dallas can’t move the ball, and unlike against the tough Bucs’ defense Monday night, the Rams will capitalize on field position: St. Louis 30, Dallas 16

Houston (1-2) @ Philadelphia (2-1) pick PHI –19.5 (over 36)

After making a statement in a blowout of Dallas, now the Eagles will try to do the same to another team from Texas. I think the Texans are even worse on both sides of the ball. They have been terrible since their opening win, averaging 161 yards and 3 points. News flash, Philadelphia has a solid defense. It would make sense for the Eagles to use this game as a training ground for their lackluster running game, which I believe they will do once they are 21 up at the half. It’s tough to give up 3 touchdowns, but remember that the Texans have lost by this many the past two weeks, and neither team is as good as the Eagles: Philadelphia 34, Houston 3

Miami (3-0) @ Kansas City (1-2) pick MIA –3 (under 44.5)

Last week the Chiefs threw a scare into unbeaten New England on the road. This week they try to do more than scare the unbeaten Dolphins at home. Miami turned up the defense a notch, allowing just 189 yards and 3 points against the Jets. They will be challenged by a Chiefs team that comes in averaging 31 points a contest. Well, Miami has put up 33 while yielding just 12, which brings us to the difference – KC’s defense, which has allowed an unruly 34 points per game. Holmes vs. Williams is a marquee rushing match-up, and neither quarterback is really capable of taking over a game at this point, so you have to decide the game on mistakes and defense. Miami wins on both counts: Miami 24, Kansas City 17

New Orleans (3-0) @ Detroit (0-3) pick NO –7 (over 46)

The sigh of relief you hear is the Saints, who finally get an opponent that didn’t make the playoffs last year. The word letdown comes to mind, but with their offense in high gear (27 points per game) I don’t see it happening. The Lions got a solid game out of James Stewart, and took advantage of Green Bay’s falling asleep late to make last week’s loss close, but they have given up 117 points (that’s 39 per game sports fans) which is just mind boggling if you ask me. The Saints will control the tempo and roll them over from the start: New Orleans 34, Detroit 16

NY Jets (1-2) @ Jacksonville (1-1) pick NYJ +3.5 (under 42.5)

Here’s a couple of teams that I didn’t expect to do much this season. They aren’t disappointing me. The Jags got a week off to prepare, and the Jets are coming off 2 losses by a combined 74-10. Ouch. Jacksonville has used a healthy Fred Taylor to establish a solid rushing attack, while New York has struggled partially due to Curtis Martin’s lack of health. This isn’t adding up in favor of the visitors, is it? After this one, I think fans in the Big Apple are going to start clamoring for Chad Pennington: Jacksonville 22, NY Jets 20

NY Giants (2-1) @ Arizona (1-2) pick NYG –2.5 (over 38)

At this point, the G-Men are probably wondering what division they are in. This will be their fourth consecutive game against the NFC West, even though they are facing an ex-NFC East opponent here. With just 2 offensive touchdowns, it is easy to see this Giants team has been carried by their defense so far. Arizona has struggled even against mediocre competition, and it starts with Jake Plummer, who has averaged just 174 passing yards per game. That’s fine if you’re Michael Vick, and make it up running the ball and creating offense. It’s not fine if you have plenty of targets, and a decent ground game. My take is that this is bound to be a defensive, grind it out game. If Dilfer can pass for 352 yards on these guys, I guarantee you that Collins can, and that will be the difference in the game: NY Giants 24, Arizona 20

Tampa Bay (2-1) @ Cincinnati (0-3) pick TB –6.5 (over 34)

This is the kind of game that Jon Gruden needs to really kick his offense into high gear. They’ve put up 71 points (23.7 average) but if you throw out the defensive touchdowns, safety, and 2 yard plunge following an interception return to the 2 yard line that average drops to just 14. That’s Dungy-like. Cincy is giving up 28 a contest, however, so expect them to get loose in this one. The new starting QB for the Bungles is Akili Smith. I’d like you to meet Warren Sapp: Tampa Bay 34, Cincinnati 6

New England (3-0) @ San Diego (3-0) NE –3 (under 41.5)

The only match-up of unbeaten teams provides a second venue for a reality check. To the Chargers’ credit, they’ve allowed just 205.3 yards per contest coming in, but two of those games were against inept offenses in Houston and Cincinnati. Meanwhile, New England has piled up an NFL-high 115 points (38 per game) and shown no signs of slowing down. San Diego’s defense might stop them now and then, but with their offense going nowhere it will be a case of inevitability. This is the first good defense San Diego has faced, and it will show: New England 24, San Diego 10

Tennessee (1-2) @ Oakland (2-0) OAK –6 (under 43.5)

Following their come from behind win against the Eagles on opening day, the Titans have simply fallen apart. First they laid an egg in Dallas, and then they let a 14-point lead get away against Cleveland. Meanwhile, Oakland is fresh off a bye week, which was preceded by a pair of convincing wins over Seattle and Pittsburgh. The only good news is that shut down corner Charles Woodson will not be there to take Titans’ wide receiver Derrick Mason completely out of the game. The bad news for future Raider opponents is that now rookie Phillip Buchanon is going to get indoctrinated quicker than expected, and will soon be shutting down receivers himself. The last couple times these teams have met, Eddie George has led a pounding running attack that gave the Raiders problems. This time Oakland has Parella and Adams in the middle, and that makes all the difference. Oakland’s defense looks good, and so does their offense: Oakland 24, Tennessee 14

Minnesota (0-3) @ Seattle (0-3) SEA –3 (over 43.5)

For a second consecutive week, ESPN serves up a pair of winless teams. Great scheduling guys, I think I’ll watch an X-Files rerun. At least they’ve lost for different reasons. The Seahawks can’t score (12.0 per game) and the Vikings can’t stop anyone (31.0 per game). Coming off games where they gave up just 80 and 31 yards rushing, Minnesota watched Carolina roll up 164 on them. The Seahawks did the opposite, going from 470 the first 2 weeks, to just 80 last week. For my money, I’ll say that Seattle is able to run the ball, and pass the ball too. If Daunte Culpepper is up to the task, the Vikes might win a shootout, but I don’t think he is: Seattle 31, Minnesota 24

Denver (3-0) @ Baltimore (0-2) DEN –7 (under 36.5)

In another great piece of scheduling, the Ravens are rewarded for letting most of their team go during a cap purge by getting a home game on MNF. Nice. The visiting Broncos have beaten a few good teams in St. Louis, San Francisco and Buffalo, while Baltimore was knocked off by Carolina (10-7) and Tampa Bay (25-0). Do you think Shannon Sharpe might give his new team a few hints on how to stop his old team? The real story here is that the Ravens pretty much embarrassed Denver in the playoffs following the 2000 season. It was 21-3, but they were humiliated. Payback is a *censored*, and Baltimore can no longer stop the run cold, although they’ve only given up 65.5 per game this year. Denver has a better rushing attack than Carolina and Tampa Bay combined. That’s the bottom line: Denver 24, Baltimore 10