Not a good week for teams that came in 3-0, as they went 0-3 since you have to throw out the Chargers-Patriots match-up of 3-0’s. What a week for scoring, as 8 teams posted 30 or more points (one in a losing cause) and 5 other teams scored 21 points or more only to lose their games. When San Diego is 4-0 and St. Louis is 0-4, you know we’ve had a bizarre first quarter of the season

I had another uneven week of predictions, really only hitting on Pittsburgh struggling past Cleveland (20-14 pick, 16-13 actual) and Tampa Bay thumping Cincinnati (34-6 pick, 35-7 actual). I am stunned at St. Louis’ continued struggles, and was caught by surprise with a pair of winless teams knocking off their unbeaten opponents. So with all of that in mind, 8-6 straight up (32-28 on the year) wasn’t all that bad. I was an awful 5-9 against the spread, putting me at 24-35-1 on the year, but I did go 8-6 on the over/under to even me out at 30-30. The oddsmakers were 8-6 straight up (32-28) to maintain a two game lead over me, but went 4-10 against the spread (20-39-1) to drop 4 behind. There were 8 overs and 6 unders last week, and for the year 32 have gone over with 28 going under.

With Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Seattle off this week (combined record in games vs. rest of NFL 2-12) the competition level rises this week. Games that were once considered battles of titans (Rams @ 49ers) no longer seem so big, while others (Chargers @ Broncos) loom large unexpectedly. New division rivalries (Buccaneers @ Falcons) also get going, and a pair of AFC East contenders that looked past their last opponent get it on with the Patriots visiting the Dolphins.

I’m taking 4 dogs, with a pair of them winning straight up. I also had to alter a couple picks to account for picking the spread or the over/under on the nose, which always makes me nervous. For the record, I have an extra point to Oakland and San Diego, so we’ll see how that works out.

Arizona (2-2) @ Carolina (3-1) pick CAR –3.5 (over 36.5)

The Cardinals have once again found someone to get Thomas Jones out of the lineup, this time it is rookie Marcel Shipp who had 131 total yards on 22 touches and found the end zone twice in their win over the Giants. The key to their offense, however, is wide receiver David Boston, who is limited due to injury. Without him, they won’t move the ball much on a Carolina defense that held a solid Green Bay offense under control last week. Coach Fox said the Panthers would run the ball, and they sure have, putting up 130.8 yards (10th NFL) per game during their solid start. Arizona is right behind them at 129.5 but it hasn’t been a consistent attack. The Cards passing attack (161.5/game, 27th in NFL) has been awful, which is bad news because Carolina is #2 in the NFL at 159.5 yards per game allowed. Carolina has been solid against the run as well (80.5/game, 4th in NFL) and Arizona has just a middle of the pack defense. All of this points in one direction, the Panthers run over them: Carolina 27, Arizona 13

Cincinnati (0-4) @ Indianapolis (2-1) pick CIN +13.5 (over 44)

Can I claim a mulligan where the Bengals are concerned? They finished strong last year, had an improving defense and workable skill players including a new quarterback, which is why I picked them to win more than they lost. Oops, they are awful again. They rank 19th in total defense, but their offense has put up a miserable 229.8 yards per game, ranking ahead of only Houston. Indy comes in with the 10th ranked offense led by a slew of stud skill players. On paper, this is a blowout, and I hope I’m not out thinking myself by saying the Colts sleep walk in the first half following their bye to let this one get closer than it should be: Indianapolis 31, Cincinnati 19

New England (3-1) @ Miami (3-1) pick MIA –2.5 (under 44)

This should have been a game between 4-0 teams, but the Chiefs and Chargers had other plans. As it is, New England brings their high powered offense (2nd in yardage, 3rd in scoring) against Miami’s high powered offense (8th in yardage, 2nd in scoring) for a game that is likely to be decided on defense. Both defense have shown vulnerability in the early going, with Miami ranked 16th and New England sitting at 24th. The Patriots have a slight edge in points given up (20.0 to 21.2) and both teams have crushed the Jets. The key mutual opponent is the Chiefs, who put up 79 points combined against these teams, but lost to the Pats (41-38 in OT) while crushing the Dolphins 48-30 last week. That’s the only thing I can use to differentiate these teams because both will be hot following losses. Miami has not defended the pass well (238.5/game, 23rd in NFL) while Brady has led the Pats to a league leading 325.2 yards per game. Then again, Miami has the 3rd best ground game at 165.2 yards a contest going up against the 29th ranked run defense at 141.2 yards per game. I’m torn, but a good running game tends to win out, especially when that team is at home: Miami 16, New England 13

NY Giants (2-2) @ Dallas (2-2) pick DAL –0 (under 35.5)

If either of these teams have any playoff aspirations, they have to win this game. The Cowboys bring their 24th ranked offense to the table, and have put up just 57 points, good for 27th in the NFL. While the Giants have been much better in yardage, they have managed 2 fewer points on the year, thanks in large part to their awful running game (27th in NFL, 76.8/game). At least the G-Men have played defense, to the tune of 6th and 7th respectively against the pass and run. They come off a very ugly road showing, a 21-7 loss to Arizona, and these battles are always hard fought. Dallas was a trendy pick to contend, especially by people not paying attention the fact that Quincy Carter starts at quarterback. Something tells me that a Cowboys defense averaging 14 points a contest (other than their 44-13 blowout loss to Philly) finds a way to will them to another victory: Dallas 12, NY Giants 10

Oakland (3-0) @ Buffalo (2-2) pick OAK –3 (under 53)

The Bills are starting to look a lot like the 2000 St. Louis Rams, who could barely put up enough points to out score the opposition. Yes, they are 4th in the NFL at 33.0 points per game, but they are also 28th at 32.8 points per game allowed. That’s not good news when you’re hosting a team leading the league in scoring at 37.7 points a contest. The Raiders have had their way on offense, leading the league by nearly 23 yards per game, and 62 over the Bills who are 6th. They are also 10th in total defense, and 1st against the run allowing just 52.7 yards a game. But the Bills will attack through the air, and Oakland comes in rated 25th with 243.7 yards per game, partially because they have played from ahead so much, leading to their ranking 7th in opposing pass attempts at 37.3 throws. They will again be without Charles Woodson, however, which stings more when facing a team with Moulds, Price, and Reed rather than Mason, Dyson, and McCareins. If the Raiders win, it will be behind their rushing offense (9th in NFL, 135.2/game) against the Bills poor run defense (23th in NFL, 125.2) in an effort to use the clock and control the tempo. I think it is clear that the Raiders can score with Buffalo, play better defense, and run more effectively. I can see the Bills winning this game, but I’m not predicting it: Oakland 28, Buffalo 24

Pittsburgh (1-2) @ New Orleans (3-1) pick NO –2.5 (over 43.5)

The Saints have just what they want, another 2001 playoff team. After winning their opening three contests against playoff teams, they lost to a Lions team that was 2-17 since the start of last season. It’s simple to figure out how they lost. Even though they averaged 6.9 yards per rush, and converted 7 of 13 third downs they lost the turnover battle 3-0. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was righting their ship, allowing just 122 yards passing to Cleveland after getting shredded by Oakland and New England. Even still, they averaged just 2.7 yards per rush, had to turn to Tommy Maddox to get them to overtime, and once there had to overcome the Browns attempting the game winning field goal and getting their own attempt blocked. Both come in with comparable defenses with Pittsburgh 28th against the pass, and New Orleans 26th while Pittsburgh is 10th against the run and New Orleans is 11th. Offensively, however, New Orleans comes in at 12th, with Pittsburgh just 21st. The Saints have outscored the Steelers 27.8 to 15.7 and they have their former defensive coordinator at head coach. Think he might know how to go after them? The only downside is that wide receivers Joe Horn and Donte’ Stallworth are both ailing, with Horn expected to play through it. I expect lots of Deuce McAllister on dink plays, and special teams to come up big for the home team in this one. The Steelers are digging a hole, but they should be able to find their way out in the coming weeks: New Orleans 26, Pittsburgh 20

Tampa Bay (3-1) @ Atlanta (1-2) pick ATL +2 (over 39)

Things were supposed to be easy for the Bucs in the NFC South, but even with a solid start they find themselves in a three way tie atop the division. Now they get a team coming off a bye, and itching for a win over a 2001 playoff team after a pair of close calls to open the season. The Bucs are scoring (9th in NFL, 26.5/game) but a lot of it is coming on defense and special teams. They rank just 20th in total offense, just behind Atlanta. Defensively they are solid as usual, coming in ranked 5th while Atlanta is a respectable 11th. Both teams have whitewashed Cincinnati, and the more I look at it they are evenly matched. Get this, Tampa Bay is 6th against the run, Atlanta is 6th in rushing. Atlanta is 24th in run defense, while Tampa Bay is 26th in rushing. Atlants is 6th in pass defense, while Tampa Bay is 7th. Where does it end? Passing offense, where Tampa Bay is 14th with Atlanta checking in at 26th. But that’s just because Vick creates offense, and isn’t your pro-typical passer. He gets it done with intangibles, and I think the home team gets this one over Chucky: Atlanta 23, Tampa Bay 20

Washington (1-2) @ Tennessee (1-3) pick TEN –5.5 (under 45.5)

The Redskins come off their bye week with a new starting quarterback and wide receiver. The Titans come off an embarrassing 52-25 loss in Oakland, wishing they had a bye. Their once stout defense comes in at 26th, one spot ahead of Washington, who can’t master Marvin Lewis’ system even though they have a pair of stud corners and an outstanding trio of linebackers. Offensively the ‘Skins are 27th with their Fun ‘n Gun while the Titans are 18th with their conventional offense. Neither team has mounted a ground attack, and Tennessee has been particularly futile even with Eddie George supposedly at full strength, tying with Baltimore at 30th with just 72 yards a game. Washington comes in at 20th with 89.3 yards a game, but is in the middle of the pack at 4.1 yards a rush, and only 3 teams have fewer rushing attempts per game (Rams, Bills, Jets if you’re curious). Then again, Tennessee (5th, 82.2/game) has been far better stopping the run than Washington has (30th, 163.3). The key could be pass defense, because the Titans just loss star corner Rolle from a unit that comes in 29th while allowing 274 yards a game. The question is whether or not Washington can take advantage of that behind either Ramsey or Weurrfel. One thing I’m sure of, it will be hard for Tennessee to get anything going in the air without top threat Mason, which puts Bailey on Dyson, and Smoot on McCareins. Mix this all up, and if the ‘Skins had anything resembling a solid quarterback, they would win this game for sure. Ah, but they don’t, and I believe Tennessee will get their ground game in gear for a stunningly easy victory: Tennessee 31, Washington 13

Kansas City (2-2) @ NY Jets (1-3) pick KC –3 (over 45)

How can things get worse for the Jets? They are tied for 29th in scoring defense (32.5/game) and facing the 2nd rated scoring offense (35.5). Maybe the only good news is that their 30th ranked scoring offense (12.5/game) will be facing the team they are tied with in scoring defense. It is easy to pinpoint their struggles because as Curtis Martin goes, the Jets go. He has been hurt, and they are dead last in rushing at just 60.2 yards per game. That’s over a dollar less than the Chiefs who come in at 169.2 good for 2nd in the NFL. Their passing attack hasn’t been much better (23rd, 189.8) and while they get a shot in the arm with new starting QB Pennington, starting wide receiver Chrebet is hurting. With such offensive woes, it is easy to see why their defense has been shredded (31st, 398.2/game) but again the silver lining is that the Chiefs have even given up more yards (last, 439.0/game) and by a wide margin. My take is simple, so what if the Chiefs give up tons of points and yards, their offense is clicking big time thanks mostly to TE Gonzalez and RB Holmes. They are going to run, pass, and walk on the home town team. I do expect Pennington to stimulate a little offense, however: Kansas City 34, NY Jets 21

San Diego (4-0) @ Denver (3-1) pick DEN –5 (over 41)

Okay, everyone who thought the Chargers would be alone in first place after four weeks, raise your hand. Okay, aside from the liars that would be no one. When you are 4th in total defense (264.5) and lead the league in rushing (182.0) by nearly 13 yards a game, you are going to win. The Broncos are 6th in total defense (277.2) and 8th in rushing (141.2) so they are following a similar recipe for success. The stew was rotten this week, however, as they managed to get pretty much blown out while giving up just 230 total yards. On the other coast, San Diego was busy making a statement, piling up 238 yards rushing during a 21-14 win over New England. Their passing attack hasn’t come into play, as they have the fewest attempts per game (24.0) and rank 31st in passing offense. A smart team like Denver will stack the line and dare Brees to beat them. Yes, San Diego usually gives Denver problems, but not at Mile High, old or new: Denver 24, San Diego 18

Philadelphia (3-1) @ Jacksonville (2-1) pick PHI –3 (under 42)

This is a game that the Eagles cannot afford to overlook. The Jaguars have overcome the losses to key players on offense and somehow come in ranked 5th at 392.3 yards a game. They’ll need it all, because Philly is 7th at 387.5 per contest. The difference is defense, where Philadelphia ranks 3rd (263.2) while Jacksonville is back in the pack at 16th (329.3). Philly’s 8th ranked run defense (90.5) is sure to be tested by the Mack/Taylor duo that has the Jags at 4th in the league in rushing (157.0). Philly is also tough against the pass, ranking 4th (172.8) and not surprisingly they are tied for 6th in scoring defense allowing an even 16 points a game. The Jags are actually tied for 3rd in that category (15.7) and are the only team in 4 games that has held Kansas City under 38 points (16 to be exact). They also played a solid Colts offense. The moral is do not underestimate the home team. I think they can have enough success running the ball to stay in the game, and if they limit their mistakes they can certainly win it. However, the way McNabb is going, he won’t let that happen: Philadelphia 22, Jacksonville 17

St. Louis (0-4) @ San Francisco (3-1) pick SF –7 (over 40.5)

What do the Cowboys, Giants, Ravens, Jets, Texans and Bengals have in common? They are the only teams that have scored less points than the Rams, and two have them already have wins over the beleaguered team. Coming in with a 15.2 scoring average (26th) is just mind boggling for a team that is usually automatic for 30 points. This year 21 is their high, which is normally a solid quarter for them. San Francisco (23rd, 16.7) is also struggling to score, but they have been winning with a defense tied for 4th at 15.7 points a game. St. Louis is in the middle of pack (18th, 22.0) and hasn’t been saved by their defense in any regard. The Rams come in at 11th in total offense (350.8) while the 49ers check in at 22nd (302.0) so a contest that is usually a shootout looks to be decided on the other side of the ball. San Francisco’s passing game has been awful (29th, 156.7) while St. Louis has done their thing (4th, 274.2) while playing from behind in every game. The big difference is that San Francisco has run over teams (7th, 145.3) while St. Louis has abandoned the run altogether (28th, 76.5) and forgotten that Marshall Faulk is not a wide receiver. Only the Jets have fewer rushing attempts, and to put it in perspective the NFL leading Chargers have over double (37.0 to 17.8) what the Rams have. San Francisco can stop the pass (9th, 192.0) and both are in the middle of the pack in run defense. The biggest factor is how much heart St. Louis has behind starting quarterback Jamie Martin now that Kurt Warner is basically out until the final month of the season. At 0-4 they are virtually out of the playoff hunt, but at 0-5 there is no virtual about it. I’ve picked them to win 4 times in a row, and quite frankly I’m sick of their antics: San Francisco 27, St. Louis 17

Baltimore (1-2) @ Cleveland (2-2) pick BAL +7.5 (under 36.5)

Is there still bad blood between the old Browns and the new Browns? I don’t really think so, considering this is the fourth return trip Baltimore has made. The Ravens put together what appeared to be a big offensive performance in their stunning 34-23 win over Denver, but managed just 230 yards of offense while taking advantage of a special teams touchdown, and driving just 37 yards for another touchdown. They were also just 3 of 13 on third down, and gave away 2 fumbles. Their once stout defense also gave up 402 yards, and has been mediocre against the run (16th, 105.2) whereas no team used to be able to go anywhere on the ground against them. They rank 13th in total defense (315.7) which isn’t half bad until you consider their offense is 30th (230.7) and only ahead of Cincinnati (barely) and Houston. Cleveland isn’t great on defense (22nd, 333.8) or offense (16th, 333.1) but they’ve found a way to score (10th, 25.8) which is more than Baltimore can say (13.7, 29th) at this point. If you like ugly football, that’s what you’ll get because Baltimore can’t run the ball (tied 30th, 72.0) or pass the ball (28th, 158.7) at all while Cleveland can’t pass it (23rd, 243.8) or run it (21st, 87.2) very well either. The less ugly team wins: Cleveland 19, Baltimore 13

Green Bay (3-1) @ Chicago (2-2) pick GB +1.5 (over 44)

The Packers are looking really get a leg up on the division here. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that if they win this game, they will win the division. They will have a two game lead, but really it is a four game lead because they will not lose to the Bears at home this December and therefore will have the tiebreaker. Thus far Favre has passed them (5th, 270.2) to victory in every game outside of a dome, while their running game (13th, 125.0) has also been solid even though Ahman Green missed a game. Add it up and you have the 4th ranked offense (395.2) and are tied for 7th in scoring (27.8). The Bears have looked mediocre during 4 games that have been decided by 6 points or less. Offensively they are 23rd (300.8) and just 19th running the ball (90.8) and 18th in passing (210.0) behind Jim Miller. Their defense (20th, 334.2) hasn’t stood out either, ranking 20th against the run (109.5) and 22nd (224.8) against the pass. They have played any world-beaters, either. The Pack ranks 10th in pass defense (193.5) although their run defense has been awful (tied 27th, 140.0) so its pretty clear to see how the Bears will attack. My take is that with both teams having solid ground games, only one team has Bret Favre in front of a national television audience. He knows how big this game is, and he won’t let it get away: Green Bay 28, Chicago 23