Subtlety is not one of my strengths
NFL Predictions 2002: Week 13
Overall I’m taking 7 underdogs, with 3 of them winning straight up, and hoping the “overs” do some catching up by picking 9-7 in favor of the plus side
Washington (5-6) @ Dallas (4-7) pick DAL +1.5 (under 35)
The Redskins, after losing a pair of games to move off the playoff bubble, are back on it after beating St. Louis thanks to Warner’s fumble. Now they get 5 games that they could conceivably win, including a pair against these Cowboys, who would love to pull their rivals into “out of the playoffs” status. All season it has been the offensive Dallas offense (28th, 292.5) that has held their team down because their defense (9th, 314.8) has held all but one opponent to 20 points or less. When you score 21 points twice, and the rest of the time are under that total, you can see why they are 4-7. Washington had a hyped up offense under Spurrier that hasn’t delivered (26th, 300.0) and quietly have succeeded with defense (10th, 315.5) under Marvin Lewis.
This is a rivalry game, so you take the stats with a grain of salt. Dallas has an average running game (15th, 111.2) but can’t throw the ball (29th, 181.3). Washington also has an average running game (17th, 108.2) and only a slightly better passing game (25th, 191.8). So it boils down to defense you would think. Against the run, Dallas (12th, 108.0) has been only slightly better than Washington (15th, 110.6) although they also have a 3.7 to 4.1 edge in yards per carry. In the secondary, it is Washington (12th, 204.9) that has a slight edge over Dallas (15th, 206.8). Both units are banged up, and Dallas is having to do without Darren Woodson. I think what you’ve got is a game that should score in the teens, and is going to be decided by field position. I like the Cowboys because it is Thanksgiving, and really for no other reason because I think they could lose to every team in the NFL without playing particularly poorly: DALLAS 17, WASHINGTON 16
New England (6-5) @ Detroit (3-8) pick NE –5.5 (over 44)
At first glance, you’ve got the defending champs who have overcome a four game skid to win 3 of 4 against a team that is now on their second three game losing streak of the season. Detroit made a poor call giving away the ball last week, and that was after blowing a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter. New England almost blew a 21 point lead themselves, but they seem to have regained their offensive rhythm. On the season, New England has a middle of the pack offense (15th, 339.7) and defense (13th, 325.3) to go along with their just over .500 record. Detroit has a bottom feeding offense (29th, 280.9) and defense (28th, 372.4) that has led to their awful record.
The first thing New England will do is see if this is the week Antowain Smith can get the running game going (30th, 91.6) against an underrated Detroit run defense (16th, 111.0) that actually is tied for 5th in yards per carry against (3.8). When that doesn’t work, Brady will go up top (6th, 248.1) with his many weapons against a Detroit secondary (30th, 261.4) that has been torched all season. They have given up 21 touchdowns, good for 29th in the NFL, against just 6 interceptions (30th in NFL). On the other side, you can expect Detroit to also try to run (28th, 92.7) and James Stewart has been pretty good lately. They might be able to buy some time with the running game because the Patriots front line (25th, 130.5) has not been very good. The Lions will need all the running they can get because Harrington and the passing game (26th, 188.2) are going to provide very little help against a very solid New England secondary (7th, 194.7).
What I’m seeing is a flood of Patriot passes, and a few sustained drives by Detroit. While I do think Detroit can stay in this game with their running game and by converting some third and say 4 to 8 yards to go, there is no question in my mind that New England will win this game in the end. Will it be enough to cover? Yeah, I think so: NEW ENGLAND 26, DETROIT 20
Arizona (4-7) @ Kansas City (5-6) pick KC –9.5 (under 46.5)
The Chiefs have been flirting around with making a run at playoff position for weeks. They got in it with a 20-10 win over Oakland, then lost 17-13 at San Francisco. They were back after a 17-16 win over Buffalo, and are now on the outside looking in after a 39-32 loss in Seattle. They will be essentially out of business with a loss here, and the two factors might be home field, where they have won three of their last four, and their defense, which had put in three straight solid efforts before being shredded last week. The Cards have mailed it in, having lost by over 21 points three times in a row, and by 10 or more points in each game of a 5 game skid. Their 4-2 start is a distant memory, and with 4 of 5 remaining against teams fighting to make the playoffs they are staring at 5-11 at best. For the season, Arizona’s injury riddled offense (25th, 305.4) has stalled after entering the season with high hopes behind a solid offensive line. Their defense (30th, 378.8) has been awful as well. For KC, the offense has been on par with Vermeil’s former team, St. Louis, and ranks just behind them (4th, 380.4) this year. Unfortunately, the defense has still managed to give away over 47 yards more (last, 427.7) than both their offense and the next worst team (Seattle, 379.9).
In Arizona, their lone bright spot is Marcel Shipp and the offensive line, producing a solid running game (11th, 122.1). Shipp is the latest man to replace first round bust Thomas Jones. The ground is definitely where they should start, as the Chiefs do not possess a strong front line (22nd, 125.7) and give up 5.0 yards per carry (31st in NFL). The aerial attack is now led by a lame duck starting quarterback in Jake Plummer, who they say they will not re-sign, and a wide receiving corps that is riddled with injuries. It is no wonder they can’t produce (27th, 183.3) although they weren’t lighting it up even when star David Boston and Mar’Tay Jenkins were on the field. They will definitely see man coverage as the Chiefs stack the line to stop the run, but good teams have torched their secondary (last, 302.0) all season. When Kansas City has the ball, they are going to run (2nd, 154.5) with an offense that has the second best yards per carry (5.3) in the NFL behind Priest Holmes. Among the top 5 in rushing average, they are the only team without a mobile quarterback (Culpepper, McNabb, Vick, Garcia) helping those figures. Arizona does not defend the run very well (28th, 131.7) and teams have run against them more than any team other than Seattle, with 32.1 rushes per game. Their 4.1 average ranks 14th, but their defense tires quickly. Kansas City has also had success passing the ball (12th, 225.8) and even though teams don’t throw much on Arizona, when they do they tear up their secondary (27th, 247.1).
I can see Arizona scoring some points, but I can’t see them stopping Kansas City, who might not punt all day long. The Chiefs need this game to stay alive in the playoff race, although they still need help. Arizona is cruising along for playoff position, as well they should. A nice marquee wide receiver to somewhat replace David Boston (likely to leave via free agency) is probably what they need to win a few games next year: KANSAS CITY 31, ARIZONA 13
Atlanta (7-3-1) @ Minnesota (3-8) pick MIN +3.5 (over 47.5)
The Falcons come into this game as the hottest team out there, with their last loss coming October 6 against Tampa Bay. Halloween and Thanksgiving have both passed since then. Minnesota has not been all that bad lately, going 3-4 after starting out the season with 4 straight losses, but their only win of note was over Green Bay, who they own at home. One thing Minnesota still does well is move the football (2nd, 386.4) but their defense (29th, 376.2) gives most of it back. Atlanta has brought back memories of their 1998 dream season, but has done it with an average offense (15th, 339.8) and defense (13th, 323.0). Mostly they succeed because Michael Vick is pulling the strings.
Thanks to Vick’s legs, the Falcons have a running game (4th, 147.9) among the NFL’s best, and Warrick Dunn is certainly at his best on the fake stuff. The Vikings have not been run against very much (6th, 97.7) and teams run just 25.3 times per game (10th fewest in NFL) against them. That’s because their secondary (31st, 278.5) is terrible, and no team has allowed more touchdown passes (23). That will allow Vick and the Atlanta passing game (25th, 191.9) to get comfortable, although he really has no weapons to speak of other than maybe tight end Alge Crumpler. When Minnesota has the ball, they can certainly succeed in the air (11th, 227.5) or on the ground (1st, 158.9) and have a mobile quarterback of their own in Daunte Culpepper. The question is whether or not he can limit his turnovers to 0 or 1. The Falcons do not have a strong secondary (12th, 203.4) as evidenced by their 12.7 yards per reception allowed, which is lower than only Minnesota’s. They are also not very good against the run (19th, 119.6) and are allowing a hefty 4.6 yards per carry (25th in NFL). Yes, some of these stats are made to look bad by the 645 total yards given up to Pittsburgh, but over 11 games the impact of that is lessened.
All around the board I’m smelling upset, and some of the Minnesota players have to remember the sting of 1998 when these Falcons beat them on a field goal to advance to the Super Bowl. Vick is an exciting quarterback, but he doesn’t play defense. Neither team can stop the other, and in games like that you have to favor the home team with nothing to lose. Green Bay was on a roll when they came here and look what happened to them. I still like Atlanta to win, but I’ll take the points: ATLANTA 34, MINNESOTA 31
Baltimore (5-6) @ Cincinnati (1-10) pick BAL –2.5 (over 38)
Coach Billick is up to his old tricks again, saying his team was “out of the playoff race” to fire them up against the Titans. The truth is that with the Saints (their next opponent) reeling, and Houston after that, they could easily be 8-6 with Cleveland coming to town and very much in the race. The Bengals have been out of it since week 3, and have only 4 losses by one score or less to look back on. They cut wide receiver Michael Westbrook this week, and he called his stay there a “nightmare”. Their last meeting was a 38-27 Ravens win, in a game that featured kickoff, punt and interception returns for touchdowns. If you throw those scores out, it was 24-20, and statistically it was a very close game with Baltimore having only 1 more first down (21-20) and Cincinnati winning in total yardage (372-325). The key was a 4-2 turnover edge for the Ravens, and also the fact that they led most of the game, allowing them to run the ball (162 yards rushing, 5.1 per attempt) and force Cincinnati to throw it 41 times (3 interceptions) instead of running it more (28 carries, 4.4 average). For the season, Baltimore is thankful for Houston’s entry into the league so they are not last (31st, 271.5). Defensively they have survived the loss of key players, and their coordinator, but clearly strike fear into no one with this unit (19th, 339.0). Cincinnati gets a little more out of their offense (21st, 313.2) and has just about an equal defense (21st, 342.0). Their problem is poor luck and lousy execution at key segments of the game.
The Bengals have to run the ball (18th, 107.3) to keep Kitna from having to throw another 41 passes, and they should match their season average against this Baltimore run defense (13th, 109.2). The passing game is in pretty good hands with Kitna (21st, 205.9) if he can keep from giving away the ball, and Chad Johnson is on fire right now. The Baltimore secondary has certainly been giving up yardage (24th, 229.8) thus far, so that trend should continue. Jamal Lewis has really helped the Ravens stay alive, and they have a decent running game (16th, 109.1) as well. They’ll get another chance to light it up against a porous Cincinnati front line (31st, 139.3). They will need to because they cannot throw the ball (31st, 162.5) and are now without Brandon Stokley, making their wide receiving corps even weaker. Cincinnati’s secondary (11th, 202.7) has not faced a lot of passes with teams running 31.8 times per game (3rd most in NFL) and rank 22nd in yards per reception (11.7).
Believe it or not, I expect another good football game that is likely to be entertaining. Cincinnati is a couple of players away, including quarterback Byron Leftwich with the #1 draft pick, from being a contending football team. Baltimore, however, is still in this race. More so, they have survived the loss of Ray Lewis and in spite of what their coach says are very much a wild card contender: BALTIMORE 23, CINCINNATI 19
Carolina (3-8) @ Cleveland (6-5) pick CLE -8 (over 34.5)
Remember when the Panthers were 3-0? Remember when they lost their next 3 by a total of just 7 points? Yeah, that was when they were a decent football team. Since then they have dropped another five in a row, four of which were by 10 points or more, and are now looking to become the first team this season to lose nine straight. Cleveland has overcome a couple of 3 point losses to Pittsburgh, and that infamous helmet debacle in the opener to work back into the playoff race with four wins in their past five games. On the year, the Brownies have had more flash than substance on offense (22nd, 311.7) and been suspect on defense (24th, 252.7). Carolina has suffered with an inept offense (30th, 271.6) which has spoiled efforts from their very solid defense (6th, 298.7)
The big story around The Mistake by the Lake lately has been the sudden surge of running back William Green, who most of the season was looking like a first round bust. The running game (31st, 86.7) is still horrible, but recently has been getting the job done, albeit against a pair of teams (New Orleans, Cincinnati) that give up 4.4 yards per rush. They get a much stiffer test with Carolina’s run defense (10th, 101.9) that ranks 3rd at 3.7 yards per rush. That will likely lead to lots of passing, and even with several wide receivers stepping up, Cleveland (14th, 225.0) still hasn’t been outstanding in that department. They also face a good Carolina secondary (8th, 196.8). When the Panthers have the ball, their first priority is to run it (22nd, 103.3) which they have done progressively worse at as the season has gone along. They might have some success this week, however, as Cleveland’s run defense (22nd, 125.7) is not very good. If they don’t run effectively, or fall behind, they are sunk because Peete and the passing game (30th, 168.4) will be not very much help, even against a below average Cleveland secondary (22nd, 227.0).
What I’m smelling here is upset, but now late breaking news says that Lamar Smith is out. After Steve “no relation” Smith’s problems, I wonder if they’ve got anything left in the tank. They are angry, and certainly don’t want to lose for the ninth time in a row, but on the road against a team with something to play for, Cleveland will pull away now that Lamar is not the one rushing the ball: CLEVELAND 27, CAROLINA 17
Chicago (3-8) @ Green Bay (8-3) pick GB –9.5 (over 38)
A lot has changed since these teams last met in week 5. At that point Chicago was 2-2, Green Bay was 3-1 and it was a critical game for control of the NFC North division. The Packers won comfortably (34-21) in front of a national audience on Monday night football, for the third win in what would eventually be a seven game winning streak. The Bears suffered the third loss of what would become an eight game losing streak. Ironically, it is now Green Bay trying to snap a two game skid, and Chicago who is trying to have their first winning streak since a 2-0 start. For the season, Green Bay’s offense (10th, 362.6) has done everything expected of it and more, and their defense (14th, 325.5) has held their own. Chicago’s offense (27th, 293.3) has gone under thanks to poor quarterback play, and their defense has stunk (25th, 355.9) mostly because of injuries.
Green Bay has a great running game (12th, 117.4) and loves to grind it out at Lambeau late in the season, which is what they will try to do against a decent Chicago run defense (17th, 114.9). They will probably need to pass more than they would like to, but that’s okay when Favre leads your attack (7th, 245.3) against a battered Chicago secondary (26th, 241.0) that has given up 19 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. For the Bears to succeed, they need Anthony Thomas to warp back to 2001 when he was effective, because their ground game (last, 83.5) is just awful, and is tied with Houston for worst yards per rush (4.3). Thomas might find some room this week against a poor Green Bay front line (29th, 132.2) that has allowed 4.9 yards per rush (29th in NFL). Banged up Jim Miller says he’ll start at quarterback, and somehow they have stayed in the middle of the pack in passing offense (19th, 209.8) but face an opportunistic Green Bay secondary (5th, 193.3) that is second in the NFL with 19 interceptions.
The first time around, Green Bay built a 14-0 lead and never let go, masking the fact that they were only 3 of 13 on third down. They won because of a 4-1 turnover edge, and by holding Chicago to 2.8 yards per rush. However, that was on just 16 rushes, and Miller had to throw 49 times which led to 3 interceptions. If they can establish the run, they might make this game interesting, and have certainly played much better the last three weeks while the Packers have struggled. Only twice this season have the Bears lost by 10 points, but of course one of those was against Green Bay. Half of Green Bay’s wins have come by double digits, and I really do think Chicago is out of gas at this point. There is no losing streak to bust, no playoff spot to play for, only an old rivalry that to be honest I don’t think means that much to a lot of their younger players: GREEN BAY 27, CHICAGO 13
Miami (7-4) @ Buffalo (5-6) pick BUF +2.5 (over 38)
The Dolphins have certainly corrected whatever had been wrong when they lost 3 in a row and scored exactly 10 points each game. They put Baltimore and San Diego, a pair of playoff contenders, away by an aggregate 56-10 the past two weeks. Alas, that was at home. Now they get to travel to frigid upstate New York against a Bills team that has lost three in a row, and is coming home after a pair of road games. Even revenge for a 23-10 loss might not be enough to swing things in Miami’s favor in this game. Overall, Miami’s offense (16th, 338.5) hasn’t suffered all that much with Lucas now that he has settled in, and this will probably be his last start. Defensively (3rd, 282.9) they are as strong as ever and have held six opponents to 13 points or less including three in a row. Buffalo’s offense (9th, 364.1) has disappeared in their last three games, putting up just 36 total points (12.0 average) after scoring 23 or more in their first eight games, including 31+ five times. That hurts because their defense (22nd, 342.4) has never been strong, and eight times has given up 24 or more points.
Miami brought in Ricky Williams to help them in cold weather situations, and we’ll see if the running game (6th, 139.8) that killed a solid Chargers defense last week can handle a weak Buffalo run defense (26th, 131.0) this week on the road. Undoubtedly Buffalo is going to stack the line because Miami is shorthanded in the passing game (22nd, 198.7) and didn’t have that many weapons in the first place. Buffalo should be able to defend in the secondary (17th, 211.4) but needs to prevent the big play as they have allowed 20 touchdowns (25th in NFL) and produced an NFL low 5 interceptions. Travis Henry is slumping, and needs to snap out of it to jumpstart the Buffalo offense. Running the ball (25th, 96.4) against this tough Miami front line (2nd, 89.5) is paramount to their success. Bledsoe leads a still potent passing game (3rd, 267.7) but they are best served not trying repeatedly to test Miami’s secondary (6th, 193.4) if they can help it.
Forget what you think happened the first time (i.e. that Lucas’ first game cost them) because Buffalo ran over Miami to the tune of 4.7 yards per rush and 132 yards. The six turnovers probably should have provided a wider margin of victory than just 23-10, but Buffalo was just 3 of 13 on third down and forced into three field goals by a tough Miami defense. That defense gets much softer on the road, where they given up 22 points or more in 3 of 5 games, including a 48 spot in Kansas City. Buffalo’s only really ugly home loss was 38-7 to New England, and we all know Belichick owns Bledsoe. This game could be a blowout very easily, and a lot of people will be left scratching their heads when it is all over: BUFFALO 27, MIAMI 14
Pittsburgh (6-4-1) @ Jacksonville (5-6) pick JAX +3 (under 44)
With Cleveland nipping at their heels, and hosting a weak Carolina team, Pittsburgh cannot afford to lose this game. They are after all on a 5-1-1 streak, which has been forgotten with Maddox’s injury. The Jags have had an up and down season marked by a three game winning streak, followed by a four game losing streak, followed by a two game winning streak. Talk about three steps forward, four steps back. If they lose this game, it’s lights out for their playoff hopes, which are still very much alive, especially with three games left against teams they are chasing for the wild card (Cincinnati) and division (Tennessee and Indianapolis). For the season, Jacksonville has a mediocre offense (17th, 328.5) and equally unproductive defense (17th, 331.4) which is probably why they are 5-6. Pittsburgh’s offense (6th, 374.3) has been revitalized under Maddox, who just might play this week, but their defense (20th, 339.3) has struggled much of the season and has given up 30 points five times. Not exactly Steel Curtain material.
Jerome Bettis is back for Pittsburgh, who traditionally lives to run the ball (10th, 125.0) and should have some success against an average Jacksonville front line (18th, 119.4). Whether or not Maddox plays will determine how successful the passing game (5th, 249.3) is for Pittsburgh against an ordinary Jacksonville secondary (18th, 212.0). Last week Stewart was an effective 22 of 26 passing for 236 yards and did not throw an interception. The Jags have gotten this far on the legs of Taylor and Mack running the ball (8th, 135.6) but will find the going tough against Pittsburgh’s front line (3rd, 90.7) that most teams have chosen to avoid (2nd fewest rushing attempts against, 23.5). That leaves Brunell airing it out (23rd, 192.8) against a secondary (28th, 248.5) that more than one team has attacked, as only Kansas City has allowed more passes to be completed than Pittsburgh (24.0 per game).
Without question Pittsburgh has more overall talent, and when this game was a division rivalry the road team won almost every time. This time, however, one team is on the ropes and needs to keep their season alive. Desperation usually brings the best out of a team, and especially since I believe Kordell Stewart and not Tommy Maddox will start this game I like the Jags to keep things messy in the AFC: JACKSONVILLE 23, PITTSBURGH 20
Tennessee (6-5) @ NY Giants (6-5) pick TEN +3.5 (over 34)
Here are a pair of teams that have had winning streaks to get back into the playoff race, only to have them snapped last week. The Titans reeled off five in a row before falling flat in Baltimore last week in a 13-12 loss. The Giants won three in a row before losing ugly last week in Houston 16-14. Scoring has been a problem for both, but the Giants are 5-0 when scoring 19 or more points thanks to their defense, and the Titans are 6-2 when scoring 17 points or more. All in all, New York’s offense (12th, 350.6) is a few rungs higher than Tennessee’s (18th, 318.9) and their defense (4th, 288.8) is well ahead of the Titans defense (16th, 328.7). When you hash that out, the Giants are +61.8 yards, while the Titans are –9.8, which is amazing when you consider they have identical records.
Eddie George seems to be back at full strength, although it took him half the season to get there, and the Tennessee running game (21st, 103.5) is off the bottom of the pack. He’ll face a Giants run defense (20th, 121.5) that was in the top 5 before Philly trampled them for almost three bills a few weeks back, and has since been walked on. McNair is banged up, and we all know his wide receivers are less than top notch, so don’t expect much more passing (17th, 215.5) than is absolutely necessary from them against a top notch Giants secondary (2nd, 167.3). The cold weather and windy conditions won’t help. When the Giants have the ball, they’ave been able to run a little bit (15th, 111.6) with Tiki Barber having a pretty good season and they face a viable run defense (9th, 101.0) that could pose problems for them, although most teams have chosen not to run on Tennessee (24.5 attempts per game, 4th fewest in NFL). When the Giants throw the ball, they are down a few targets with injuries, but overall have had a lot of success (8th, 239.0) and will face a secondary that has been lit up (23rd, 227.7) for an NFL high 23 touchdowns.
I expect a tight fisted battle, and a game decided by mistakes and field position. What these teams can get done on first down is going to be paramount to their success. I can see both teams having success running the ball, although New York will get some of theirs on long handoffs, also known as screen passes to Barber. That will set up some sustained drives, although I think both defenses are capable of tightening up in the red zone to force field goals, which are always an adventure this time of year at the Meadowlands. In the end, I think Fassel has his troops ready to defend the home field, and if this game was down south I would certainly go the other direction with my pick: NY GIANTS 19, TENNESSEE 17
Denver (7-4) @ San Diego (7-4) pick DEN –3 (under 41)
Another rematch in a week that features 7 of them in all. The Broncos have now lost two of three for the second time this season. The other time they did it, the lone win of the three was over these Chargers (26-9) and they rebounded to beat Kansas City (37-34) and New England (24-16) on the road. Now they will try to pull the same road kill double whammy with a win here and next week at the Jets, again a pair of contending teams. The Chargers have lost three of four since their 6-1 start that was only marred by that loss to these Broncos. They have also been clubbed 44-13 by the Jets, at home no less, and last week 30-3 at Miami. For the season, San Diego’s offense (20th, 317.7) has plugged along and gotten the job done, while their defense (27th, 363.7) has been surprisingly suspect, but has made a few big plays to help them win some early games. Denver is statistically a much better team with a capable offense (8th, 368.0) and a stout defense (2nd, 280.7) to go along with it. No other team has a higher ratio of yards for to yards against in the NFL.
Clinton Portis took a while, but he is finally the main man running the ball for Denver (9th, 132.9) who will no doubt look at last week’s Miami tape to figure out how Ricky Williams ran over San Diego (11th, 104.1). Throwing the ball might be tough for the Broncos (9th, 235.1) behind Beuerlien, who doesn’t appear to have the coaching staff’s confidence after tossing just 24 passes last week. I know it was snowing, but the prior week he came in and threw only 2 passes, and even in snowy conditions Manning had 44 attempts. San Diego’s secondary (30th, 259.6) is ripe for the picking and has given up 20 touchdowns (5th most in NFL). If Griese does answer the bell, he will tear them apart much the same as he did in the first meeting where he went 26 of 35 for 316 yards with 2 touchdowns against 1 pick. San Diego’s best shot is to run the ball (7th, 136.4) but no other team has had success doing that against Denver (1st, 72.7) who has faced only 21.5 rushing attempts per game, two fewer than any other team and six fewer than the middle of the pack. In the first meeting they did run for 4.4 yards per clip, but had just 18 rushes because they were behind big early. If San Diego is going to pass the ball (28th, 181.4) it will be tough because main threat Curtis Conway is hurting and Denver’s secondary (15th, 208.0) has allowed only 9.4 yards per reception, best in the NFL.
This is pretty simple. Denver allows the fewest yards per reception, and fewest yards per catch. San Diego’s top wide receiver may not play, which pretty much guarantees the defense cheating run and eliminating any threat of the Chargers moving the ball. Defensively the Chargers have been banged around pretty good in their last seven games, allowing 26 points or more five times. It might hurt Denver to have Beuerlein, but it won’t kill them. As I’ve been saying all along, San Diego is not a great team. They have been playing over their head and the water is starting to fill up the bath tub: DENVER 27, SAN DIEGO 13
Houston (3-8) @ Indianapolis (7-4) pick IND –11 (under 40.5)
When first these teams met, the Texans were smack dab in the middle of a five game losing streak, and the Colts were in the middle of their 4-1 start. Naturally, it was a 23-3 whooping laid down by Indy. The Texans snapped their losing streak, and last week snapped another three game skid. For the Colts, they wound up losing three in a row as well, leaving the football universe questioning their ability to compete with the big boys. Then they smashed McNabb’s Eagles 35-13 at Philly, wiped out Dallas 20-3 and kicked Denver 23-20 in OT last week at Mile High Stadium. Now they are alone atop the AFC South standings. With more offensive weapons, they still aren’t spectacular in terms of yardage (11th, 351.0) but clearly get the job done having scored 20 or more points in 9 of 11 games. Very quietly, Dungy’s defense has moved into the top 10 overall (7th, 301.1) but has given up 20 or more points in 8 of 11 games, which is probably why 7 of their 11 games have been a one score or less affair. I’ve run out of superlatives to describe how bad Houston’s offense is (last 244.8) and without their defense (11th, 319.7) they would certainly be an 0-16 football team.
Edgerrin James is expected to start for Indy, but his nagging injuries have shown the team that James Mungro can play and contribute to their sagging running game (24th, 96.5). The Texans have been run on pretty good this season (25th, 128.6) but did hold James to just 88 yards on 25 carries (3.3 average) last time around. Payton Manning is clearly one of the best passers in the NFL, and he has plenty of guys to throw the ball to (4th, 254.5) so even if Houston’s secondary is ranked high (4th, 191.1) bear in mind that they allow 11.8 yards per reception (25th in NFL) and have not been thrown on very much (17.7 receptions against, 4th fewest in NFL). In the first game Manning completed 75% of his passes for 272 yards and a pair of scores. When Houston has the ball, they are in trouble. They have managed very little on the ground (27th, 95.9), which wouldn’t be so bad, if they had a passing game (last, 148.9) to speak of. This would be the week to get the running game going against a Colts defense that is suspect in that area (30th, 132.3) because last time around rookie Jonathan Wells had a season high 93 yards on just 14 carries and the Texans had 126 yards rushing with a 4.2 yard average. Indy’s pass defense (3rd, 168.8) has also not been tested much (17.5 receptions against, 2nd fewest in NFL) but they only allow 10.4 yards per completion which is good for fifth in the NFL. Carr threw 22 passes and had just 78 yards last time around.
On the road, in a hostile dome I do not believe Houston will have as much success running the ball this time around. I can also see David Carr throwing more than the 1 interception he had last time to go along with the sacks he is sure to suffer. Once the life is snuffed out of them with a vicious passing attack, James will pound them into submission. Indianapolis is too disciplined under Dungy to fall prey to an expansion team at home, and they have way too much on the line with this being a division game: INDIANAPOLIS 28, HOUSTON 10
Seattle (4-7) @ San Francisco (7-4) pick SEA +9 (over 43.5)
The 49ers caught a break when Warner’s “tuck” was ruled a fumble at the end of St. Louis’ game against Washington, then couldn’t beat Koy Detmer’s Eagles on Monday night, getting blown out 38-17. It also appears that their defense has gone south on them again. In the first three games they averaged 16.7 points, then went on a five game scoring spree averaging 30.6 a contest. The last three games, two of them losses, they have put up 17 points in each game. Now they get a chance to turn that around in the “Sharpie game” rematch. While the nation watched on Monday Night Football, Terrell Owens pulled a pen from his sock to sign a touchdown ball and delivered it to a friend in the stands. The move angered the Seahawks, who eventually lost the game 28-21. In other words, with no playoffs in sight that is their motivation. When you look at it, however, Seattle is 4-3 after their 0-3 start, while San Francisco is 5-2 in that same stretch, with the difference being the first meeting, so this might not be such a mismatch after all. Statistically, the 49ers still move the ball (7th, 368.3) very effectively, and their still young defense (17th, 331.4) makes plays here and there. Seattle’s offense (19th, 317.9) has been hit with injuries and their defense has just been hit period (31st, 379.9)
Suddenly the 49ers have become a running team (5th, 142.8) but will now have to do it with only Hearst because Barlow is done for several weeks with an injury. Fortunately, he’ll break in his solo gig against the worst rushing defense (174.4) by over 35 yards. SF took this unit for 161 yards last time, at 5.2 per carry. Hearst is not a bruiser, however, so expect them to be less effective and turn to the short passing game (13th, 225.5) a little more often. Teams don’t often pass against Seattle (18.5 receptions per game) which inflates their rating (13th, 205.5) and they give up a healthy 11.7 yards per reception (22nd in NFL). That was the case in the first meeting, with only 29 passes thrown, and just 202 yards for Garcia. When Seattle gets the ball, they need to hold it as long as they can by establishing a running game (26th, 96.3) that has disappeared on them this season. San Francisco’s front line (14th, 110.5) gives up a less than stellar 4.4 yards per rush (22nd in NFL) so expect them to attack that area. Alexander was just short of 100 yards last time around, and the time of possession was almost dead even. When Seattle throws the ball, this time around it will be Hasselbeck instead of Dilfer leading the attack (15th, 221.6). They have standout Darrell Jackson back in the fold, but Koren Robinson, who is breaking out after last weeks 168 yards, now has the flu. Plenty of teams have picked on Mike Rumph in the 49ers secondary (19th, 220.9) but that would be a lot easier if Robinson joins Jackson and Engram on the field.
San Francisco responds well to adversity. They are down right now, but they have to realize that a loss in this game coupled with a St. Louis win this week will return to the Rams the ability to control their own destiny and win the NFC West. I am not sure if they have the ability to manhandle the Seahawks as some other teams have done, and losing Barlow certainly hurts their chances because it limits the amount of guesswork that the defense has to do. I like Seattle to throw a nice scare into them before falling on a late Jeff Chandler field goal: SAN FRANCISCO 30, SEATTLE 27
St. Louis (5-6) @ Philadelphia (8-3) pick STL –2 (under 39)
What a difference a week makes. St. Louis was riding high on a five game winning streak, and looked to be going in for a winning touchdown when a controversial fumble cost them at least a shot at overtime in a 20-17 loss at Washington. The Eagles were left for dead after McNabb went down, but rode Detmer to a 38-17 smashing of division leading San Francisco, on the road in a nationally televised game no less. Their roller coaster didn’t stop there, because Detmer was hurt, and now third stringer A.J. Feeley will call the signals.
It is silly to use any statistics for this game because Philadelphia’s running game (still #3 if you’re curious) was a lot of McNabb’s runs, and St. Louis’ is much better with Faulk who might not play again. In the passing games, Feeley makes his first start obviously, and Warner has only been in half of the games. So we’ll look at defense, where this game will be won or lost. Philadelphia’s run defense (4th, 95.0) is slightly better than St. Louis (7th, 100.5) but both teams allow 4.0 yards per rush (tied 11th in NFL). Pass defense is the real key, with Philadelphia (10th, 199.4) again holding a slight edge over St. Louis (14th, 205.6).
I think Warner is going to throw for at least 250 yards, but probably a couple of interceptions. The question is how well A.J. Feeley can move the ball because the guy has thrown only 17 passes including the three he completed in relief of Detmer last week. I don’t think either team is going to rush for a lot of yards, and which team capitalizes on field position is going to be in position to win. The last time they met in Philly, it was a hard fought 20-17 Rams win in OT. I see a very similar result here: ST. LOUIS 21, PHILADEPHIA 16
Tampa Bay (9-2) @ New Orleans (7-4) pick TB +0 (over 40)
Right now, the NFC South is a three team, wide open race even though the Bucs have the best record in all of football. They can effectively eliminate New Orleans with a win here because a three game lead plus a tiebreaker is too much to make up over the final 4 weeks. The Bucs would have to go 0-4, and the Saints 4-0 plus getting help from Atlanta losses. These teams opened the season down in Florida, where the Saints pulled out a 26-20 overtime win that shocked the football world. The Bucs are of course 9-1 since then, and the Saints have lost three of four. On the season, Tampa Bay’s offense (24th, 306.6) has not shown much improvement under Gruden, but their top ranked defense (253.5) sure hasn’t suffered without Dungy. New Orleans has an above average offense (13th, 350.4) that has sputtered while scoring just 15 and 17 points during losses in their last two games, and an atrocious defense (26th, 360.7) that hasn’t held a team under 20 points all season, with a total of 25.5 points given up on average.
Right off the top New Orleans is at a disadvantage with McAllister, which kills their running game (14th, 116.0) that probably wasn’t going much of anywhere against Tampa Bay (5th, 97.0) anyway. That puts the pressure on Brooks, who has struggled of late, to get the passing game (25th, 236.0) going. He did have 318 yards last week, but no touchdowns. He also faces the best secondary in football (156.5) that has allowed the fewest touchdowns (5) and had the most interceptions (23). The opener was months ago, but Brooks had a solid 24 of 42 game, passing for 260 yards with 2 scores and 1 pick. If New Orleans is going to stay in this game, they need to shut down a weak Tampa Bay running game (29th, 92.3) but teams have run pretty well on them this season (21st, 124.7). When the Bucs throw the ball (18th, 214.4) it will be against a likewise not very good secondary (25th, 236.0) but at least his main threat Keyshawn Johnson is banged up.
I can’t see the Saints getting into an offensive rhythm with Fenderson, Keaton and McAfee running the ball. Deuce had 109 yards on 31 carries the first time around, leading to 368 yards of total offense. A one-dimensional team is not going to do that against the Bucs, and even against a soft Cleveland defense that trio had 18 carries for only 65 yards. I think Brad Johnson is capable of carving up a soft defense, and with 24 points I’ll take Tampa Bay every time: TAMPA BAY 24, NEW ORLEANS 20
NY Jets (6-5) @ Oakland (7-4) pick OAK –6 (under 48.5)
A lot is going to be made of their two meetings in January, but that was last season and Vinny Testaverde started for the Jets, who have surged to four straight wins under Pennington. The Raiders are on another streak, having won three in a row after having four game winning and losing streaks already. Statistically, no one moves the ball better than Oakland (412.6) or is even close, with Minnesota 25 yards back. Their revamped defense has taken some licks (14th, 325.5) but has held 6 of 11 opponents to 20 points or less, which with this offense is a good thing (5-1 record in those games). New York has struggled to move the ball (23rd, 310.6) or stop opposing teams (23rd, 352.6) and has basically won with special teams and big plays.
Oakland is going to come out throwing the football, which they do better than any other team (310.4) by 35 yards. The Jets do not possess a great secondary (20th, 221.0) so expect another big day from Gannon. Only one team runs the ball less than Oakland (23.1 rushes per game) but they still have a viable running game (23rd, 102.3) with a solid 4.4 yard average (11th in NFL). They might decide to just run over the Jets (27th, 131.6) who allow 4.9 yards per rush (3rd worst in NFL). When New York has the ball, Pennington is an efficient passer (20th, 206.0) but doesn’t have any spectacular weapons. Charles Woodson will take Coles out of the game, and I see no reason to believe that Moss will abuse Tori James in the Oakland secondary (21st, 224.5). Curtis Martin has had some downright ugly games at Oakland, but overall the New York running game has been improving (20th, 104.6) after a slow start when Martin was hurt. Another ugly game could be in store because Oakland clamps down on the run (8th, 100.9) when it matters.
Both teams are rolling, but traveling across the country is no picnic, and this isn’t the Chargers they are facing. Meanwhile, Oakland’s only trips outside of California over the past 5 weeks have been short trips to Colorado and Arizona, so they are in good shape. I like Garner, and possibly Wheatley, to run them over in yet another Monday night snoozer: OAKLAND 30, NY JETS 17