Subtlety is not one of my strengths
Bowling Season for College Football 2002
Ugly does not begin to describe it. The Hawaii, Continental and San Francisco bowls have been created, while the Galleryfurinture.com Bowl will now be called the Continental Tire Bowl, and the Citrus Bowl will not be called the Capital One Bowl. If a bowl game has more than one word in it (other than Bowl) it likely is not a traditional bowl. For the record, bowl games that off the top of my head have some history are (in no particular order): Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Gator, Cotton, Peach, Liberty, Sun, Holiday and Independence. I remember when your team would be bummed to be sent to the Independence Bowl. Now there are probably a dozen or more less attractive bowls.
So it goes, and here is the first of my two part bowl game predictions. The first 14 bowl games will be played from December 17 to December 30, click “read more” for my picks. Part two will obviously cover New Year’s Eve on.
DEC. 17 – NEW ORLEANS BOWL (New Orleans, Louisiana): North Texas (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (7-6)
The Sun Belt Champions from North Texas aren’t that far away from carrying a top 25 ranking going into this game. They scheduled 5 “big” schools in their non-conference schedule, but lost all of the games although 3 were by a touchdown or less, and 4 of the games were on the road. Opening with a loss at #9 Texas (27-0) was no shame, neither was a 33-7 loss at #13 Alabama, or a 16-10 loss at TCU who spent time on the top 25 and finished 9-2. They also lost to South Florida (24-17) who also finished 9-2, and probably should have beaten 4-8 Arizona (14-9 loss). They did roll their conference opponents, shutting out two teams and limiting a third to a safety. Their opponents from Cincinnati won the Conference USA title and share a mutual opponent, having beaten TCU 36-29 in their season opener back on September 2. They are also on a roll, having won 5 of 6 games, with the only loss being 20-19 at Hawaii. Cincinnati also gave #2 Ohio State a scare before falling 23-19, and lost just 35-32 to #15 West Virginia, along with a 24-14 win over Louisville who is going to a bowl game. The difference here is that Cincinnati has played better teams lately, and also scores more points. Seven times they have scored 31 points or more this season, and three of those games were against good teams. Meanwhile, in 6 of their 12 games North Texas has been held to 13 points or less, and their 30+ efforts have come in 3 of their last 4, which were weak Sun Belt competition. As usual, I like the team that has been to more battles: CINCINNATI 28, NORTH TEXAS 17
Dec. 18 – GMAC BOWL (Mobile, Alabama): Marshall (9-2) vs. Louisville (7-5)
It’s almost as though the Thundering Herd wants a shot at keeping their #24 national ranking (USA Today) and getting into the final AP top 25 by taking on the third best team from Conference USA. Marshall came into the season ranked, but lost it when #21 Virginia Tech blasted them 47-21. You would think losing 34-20 to an otherwise 3-8 team from Akron would eliminate them from the rankings seeing as they have no big time wins, but pollsters are complete idiots. At any rate, they have Heisman candidate Byron Leftwich leading their prolific offense that has put up at least 20 points in every game, and 30+ six times. Heck, they’ve scored 49 or more three times. Defensively, however, they have given up 21 points in 8 of 11 games. Their opponent from Louisville was put on the map this year with a 26-20 win over #16 Florida State, who at the time was 4-0. However, a 20-17 win at Houston Bowl-bound Southern Mississippi is their only other victory of note. In their last game they were swamped 27-10 by a Houston team that came in 4-7 with nothing to play for. They have allowed 20+ points in 9 of 12 games, so I see no reason this game will not be high scoring and viewer friendly. I like the team with the star at quarterback to finish the year with an undeserved national ranking in the 20 range: MARSHALL 38, LOUISVILLE 28
Dec. 23 – TANGERINE BOWL (Orlando, Florida): Clemson (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (8-5)
The Tigers were the fifth best team in a pretty bad ACC. Their only “big” win was 24-19 over Georgia Tech, who finished 7-5 to make a bowl game. Perhaps their best effort came in their opener, a 31-28 loss at #4 Georgia, but they were beaten by 17, 32 and 18 points in their other meetings with ranked opponents. The Red Raiders also opened against a top opponent, falling 45-21 at #2 Ohio State, and they have a mutual opponent, having lost 51-48 in OT to the #17 N.C. State team that pounded Clemson 38-6. Texas Tech was also killed 37-13 at #14 Colorado, and 60-15 at #8 Oklahoma, but they have wins over #9 Texas (42-38) and bowl representative Oklahoma State (49-24). Effectively, Texas Tech finished fifth, and the teams finishing above them are ranked 6, 8, 9 and 14 nationally. Clemson also took fifth, but the teams above them are 16, 17, 18 and unranked. Better conference, more prepared and carrying an offense that has scored 42 or more 8 times. Their only obstacle could be the fact that more Clemson fans are likely to be in the stands: TEXAS TECH 37, CLEMSON 24
Dec. 25 – LAS VEGAS BOWL (Las Vegas, Nevada): New Mexico (7-6) vs. UCLA (7-5)
Do you think the standards at UCLA are a little higher than everywhere else? Despite going 4-4 against teams that are going bowling, with their other loss coming to 7-5 Cal who would be in a bowl if not for probation, they fired head coach Bob Toledo. Yes they were wiped out by an average of 50-24 in their last two games, both at home, but after all they were facing #4 USC and #7 Washington State in those contests. The real reason he lost his job was because starting quarterback Paus went down with an injury. If he hadn’t, surely the last two games would have been closer, but UCLA’s best football was definitely their 4-1 start that included three wins over bowl teams. Even the 3 game winning streak that preceded these blowouts was over Pac-10 cellar dwellers Arizona and Stanford, although they did beat then-struggling Washington 34-24. Clearly they are reeling, but enough to lose to the second place team from the Mountain West? The only mutual opponent is #23 Colorado State, with UCLA recording a 30-19 win and New Mexico losing 22-14, but UCLA was at home and the games were played 2 ½ months apart. New Mexico’s other brushes with top teams produced dismal results. They lost 49-0 against Texas Tech on their home field, and fell 34-14 at #17 N.C. State way back on August 24. Even 3 of their wins over 4 or 5 win teams came by 9 points or less. Are they ready for a big time program? I don’t think they are, even if that team is being led by an unprepared interim coach. This game is close to both team’s home turf so I don’t think the crowd will be a factor either way, although more UCLA fans will probably make the trip: UCLA 31, NEW MEXICO 14
Dec. 25 – HAWAII BOWL (Honolulu, Hawaii): Tulane (7-5) vs. Hawaii (10-3)
This will be the inaugural game for this bowl, which sees the Rainbow Warriors playing in their backyard, and deservedly so because they have battled their way to 10 wins and a second place finish in the WAC. Along the way they have managed modest wins over fringe bowl teams like Fresno State (31-21) and Cincinnati (20-19) while getting whacked by #18 Boise State (58-31) and #13 Alabama (21-16). Their only unforgivable loss was 35-32 at BYU, who was otherwise 4-7. Only the ‘Bama game was at home, however, where they are 7-1 overall with six games of 37 points or more scored. They have also won 8 of 9. Tulane is on no such roll, having barely squeaked into the bowl picture by virtue of an upset 31-10 win over Southern Mississippi, who is also in a bowl. They have one common opponent, having also beaten Cincinnati (35-17) but have just those 2 wins over bowl teams. They were waxed 49-0 by #9 Texas, and lost 17-10 at Conference USA champion TCU. Their biggest flaw is two weeks ago, when with a chance to clinch a bowl spot they became the only team to lose to Army (14-10), who is otherwise 0-11 and has given up 44 points seven times this season. I think Hawaii will be more focused than a team that finished in a three way tie for fifth in their conference, and was one loss away from taking eighth: HAWAII 34, TULANE 20
Dec. 26 – MOTOR CITY BOWL (Detroit, Michigan): Toledo (9-3) vs. Boston College (8-4)
The Golden Eagles have four losses this year, and all have come to ranked teams. Their only win over a bowl team came at #11 Notre Dame (14-7), but other than their 38-6 blowout loss at #1 Miami, the other 3 losses were by an average of just 6 points. In all, four of their five tough games were on the road. Toledo took the MAC West title before losing 49-45 in the championship game to Marshall (#24 in coach’s poll). They do not have any wins over bowl teams, but do have wins over Central Florida (27-24) Bowling Green (42-24) and at Northern Illinois (33-30). Those teams finished 24-9 otherwise. Toledo has also rolled up 33 or more points in five straight games, and 9 times overall. In the end, I think this is a chance for Boston College to let out some frustration for coming so close to winding up with a national ranking and top-notch bowl game. Beating either Virginia Tech (28-23 loss) or Pittsburgh (19-16) would have secured that, but they have to settle for spanking these guys: BOSTON COLLEGE 33, TOLEDO 15
Dec. 26 – INSIGHT BOWL (Tempe, Arizona): #24 Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
The Panthers have gotten by on a rather thin non-conference schedule where they went 3-2, with their only major win coming over Toledo (37-19) who is in the Motor City Bowl. They lost 14-12 to Texas A&M and 14-6 to #11 Notre Dame. Their marquee win was 28-21 over #21 Virginia Tech, who was then undefeated, but has lost 3 of 4 since that game. They did make it close at #1 Miami (28-21 loss) and against #15 West Virginia (24-17) but nevertheless enter the bowl on a two game skid. The Beavers earned a national ranking while piling up a 4-0 record (average win of 48-12) against horrible competition, but fell off the radar by falling 22-0 at #5 USC. They followed with a 43-35 loss to UCLA and 13-9 loss at Arizona State and later lost 41-29 at Washington, but all four losses were to teams in bowl games. They did beat Oregon (45-24) who is playing in the Seattle Bowl, and California (24-13) who would be in a bowl if not for being on probation. They are also on a bit of a roll, having won 4 of 5. I think defensively Oregon State is going to pose problems for Pittsburgh, and this Oregon State team can put up some points. Nine times they have posted 29 points or more and Pittsburgh’s defense has been in the 19-28 range in 7 of 12 games. I see a tight battle, back and forth, with possibly the difference being the fact that OSU is playing a little bit closer to home, and in a state they are comfortable with. My gut tells me Pitt will pull it out though: PITTSBURGH 23, OREGON STATE 20
Dec. 27 – HOUSTON BOWL (Houston, Texas): Oklahoma State (7-5) vs. Southern Mississippi (7-5)
The dot com fallout means that this will no longer be the “Galleryfurniture.com Bowl” and I don’t think anyone is complaining. Finishing sixth in the Big XII carries no shame, and the Cowboys will be right at home in Texas, although they are 0-2 in the state this year. They were also 0-4 against bowl teams before shocking #8 Oklahoma 38-28 in the season finale, a victory that made them bowl eligible. Only their 17-15 loss at #9 Texas was close, the other 3 were by an average of 25 points. They have, however, won five of six, and they beat a Texas A&M team (28-23) that otherwise would have been in a bowl game. The Golden Eagles, on the other hand, have lost 3 of 5 and finished 5th in Conference USA, which isn’t exactly a top notch conference with zero ranked teams, and only champion TCU more than 2 games over .500 overall. They have gone 1-3 against bowl teams, with their lone win coming over Cincinnati (23-14) and their other two losses were against Alabama (AP #14 but on probation) 20-7 and South Florida (9-2 record) 16-13, both on the road. Their other notable win was 23-20 over Illinois, who went 4-4 in the Big-10. So this is a somewhat capable team, but they face a squad that survived the rough and tumble Big XII with only 3 conference losses. They are outmatched and the crowd is not on their side. Ugly combination: OKLAHOMA STATE 38, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 14
Dec. 27 – INDEPENDENCE BOWL (Shreveport, Louisiana): Nebraska (7-6) vs. Mississippi (6-6)
If you are wondering how the Rebels can get into a bowl without a winning record, here’s your answer. They lost 42-7 to Alabama, who is on probation and whose games don’t count for anything. The only reason they are in this game is because they upset #22 Florida (17-14) as the lone win in their 1-5 campaign against bowl competition. So if you’re scoring at home, 1-6 against good teams, 5-0 against bad teams. Likewise, Nebraska is 1-6 against bowl teams, with their only win coming way back on August 24 over Holiday Bowl-bound Arizona State, by a convincing 48-10 margin. That was when they had mystique, something that went out the window when #10 Penn State throttled them 40-7 and Iowa State rocked them 36-14, with both games coming on the road, where they are 1-4. Since this game is in the south, I guess you could say it is a road game, but honestly I don’t know if Eli’s team can mount enough offense to stay in the game. They have not scored over 24 points since September 28, and five times have been held to 17 points or less. You have to score points to beat Nebraska, who has put up 24 points in six straight games, and in 10 of 13 overall. That’s the difference: NEBRASKA 24, MISSISSIPPI 19
Dec. 27 – HOLIDAY BOWL (San Diego, California): #6 Kansas State (10-2) vs. Arizona State (8-5)
How on earth does the #6 team in the country wind up playing a team that got 3 votes out of 135 coaches and AP writers? In other words, as few as 2 people think ASU deserves to be ranked, and the highest would be #24. I guess the answer is that these things are pre-determined, and the Sun Devils took third in a rough and tumble Pac-10 behind #5 USC and #7 Washington State, both of whom handled them comfortably (34-13 and 44-22 respectively). The Wildcats know all about rough and tumble, having finished effectively fourth in the Big XII behind #8 Oklahoma, #14 Colorado and #9 Texas. They also have a win over that #5 USC bunch (27-20). Their only downfall was a three-week stretch in which they lost to both Colorado (35-31) and Texas (17-14). Since their last loss they have rolled off 5 wins in a row and no team has come closer than 34 points. In all they have 9 wins of 34+ points, with USC being the only team to test them. Arizona State seems overmatched, especially with a defense that gave up 133 over a 3 game losing streak (the WSU/USC games, plus a 55-38 loss to California) and lost to Nebraska 48-10 to open the season. Kansas State blew out Nebraska 49-13, although the games were played 3 months apart. If you’re scoring at home, K-State is 2-0 against mutual opponents, Arizona State is 0-2. Yes, ASU fans will flock to the game, but there is too much talent for their team to overcome: KANSAS STATE 34, ARIZONA STATE 18
Dec. 28 – CONTINENTAL TIRE BOWL (Charlotte, North Carolina): #15 West Virginia (9-3) vs. Virginia (8-5)
How did we ever get by without this bowl? The quiet surprise of the year might be that the Mountaineers grabbed second place in the Big East, sliding past favored Virginia Tech (21-18) and surging Pittsburgh (24-17) with huge road wins in their final two games. They also beat bowl entrants Cincinnati (35-32) and Boston College (24-14) although they were blown away by #1 Miami (40-23) and #20 Maryland (48-17) to leave them at 4-2 against bowl teams. Speaking of Maryland, Virginia whacked them 48-13, which is interesting to say the least, but then they lost to #21 Virginia Tech (14-9) giving the teams a split in games against common opponents. The Cavaliers also have a win over bowl bound Clemson (22-17) and a recent win over #17 N.C. State (14-9) but have lost to bowl bound #23 Colorado State (35-29) #16 Florida State (40-19) #10 Penn State (35-14) and Georgia Tech (23-15) giving them a 3-5 record against bowl teams. That’s not a bad mark, and I would venture to say not too many teams have played more teams that are still holding practices. They are certainly ready for battle, having played 5 in a row against such competition, but so is WV who has played 3 in a row against bowl bound teams. The site is a wash, obviously, as both are pretty close to home, and all in all this could be a very tight game. In the end, I think the Big East was a better conference than the ACC, so that’s what I’ll base this on: WEST VIRGINIA 23, VIRGINIA 19
Dec. 28 – ALAMO BOWL (San Antonio, Texas): #14 Colorado (9-4) vs. Wisconsin (7-6)
The Big XII must love this bowl season with all the mismatches it has provided for teams in their conference. The Badgers have managed to go 3-4 against bowl teams, with their big win over #15 West Virginia (34-17) coming early in the season. Their other “big” wins were over Minnesota (49-31) who had just been smashed by an average of 24 points against the top three Big-10 teams, and Fresno State (23-21) who got in because they play in the WAC. The only thing positive for them is that they lost close a few times, namely to #2 Ohio State (19-14) who plays everyone close, and #10 Penn State (34-31) but those games were at home. They also fell 21-14 at #12 Michigan and 20-3 at #3 Iowa, and took 7th place in the conference with a 3-5 record. Indiana and Illinois finished a combined 6-16 when you throw out the 2 wins they recorded over this bunch. So how do they wind up with a team that won the Big XII North and has a win over the team currently ranked #6 (Kansas State) in the country? The Buffs are 5-4 against bowl teams, so they have no poor losses, and 4 of those wins were by two touchdowns or more. There is the question of running back Brown making the field, but I don’t think he has to for them to wipe out this overrated fraud of a team: COLORADO 35, WISCONSIN 13
Dec. 30 – SEATTLE BOWL (Seattle, Oregon): Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Oregon (7-5)
I’m at a slight loss as to how Wake Forest is permitted in at 6-6, and 5 of those losses were against teams in bowl games. I don’t believe Northern Illinois (who finished 8-4) is on probation, but perhaps the rules have changed to make sure they fill all these new bowls. At any rate, the Demon Deacons do have one win over a bowl team, that being a 24-21 win over Georgia Tech, who will be traveling to the much anticipated Silicon Valley Classic Bowl. At least they are well suited for their opponent, because after a 6-0 start the Ducks have quacked to a 1-5 finish. They have also been beaten by 11 points or more in 4 of those 5 losses. In all they have a 2-5 record against bowl competition, with the wins coming over Fresno State (28-24) who is also headed to that SVC Bowl, and UCLA (31-30), which was the final win of their big start. The bottom line is that I think both of these teams are bad, and if I had my say neither of them would be in a bowl game. However, Oregon plays in a much tougher conference (even if they finished 8th) and this game is not far from home. Wake Forest took 7th in a horrid ACC, and will get soundly beaten: OREGON 42, WAKE FOREST 20
Dec. 30 – MUSIC CITY BOWL (Nashville, Tennessee): #25 Arkansas (9-4) vs. Minnesota (7-5)
The Golden Gophers got to this game on the strength of a 7-1 start, but have dropped their last 4 in a row, albeit all to teams headed to a bowl game, three of which are ranked in the top 11. While going 1-5 against bowl teams, their lone win came over MAC runner-up Toledo (31-21). They sleep walked to 7th place in the conference, but didn’t beat any good teams in the process. The Razorbacks were 4-2 against bowl teams, with their other losses coming to #13 Alabama (30-12) who is on probation, and Kentucky (29-17) who missed out on a bowl even after going 7-5. They beat South Florida (42-3) who was otherwise 9-1, and among their bowl wins was a season opening 41-14 thrashing of #18 Boise State who has gone 11-0 since. They have quietly started rolling, and even though they were clearly out played in a 30-3 SEC title game loss to #4 Georgia, this opponent is nowhere near as good. The crowd should will be biased to the south, and the Golden Gophers are going to get put into the ground: ARKANSAS 30, MINNESOTA 15