If you bet on the over and took the favorites last week, with a grand on every game, you would have finished the week 10 up. I was on the negative side, although I did dominate the straight up winners at 12-4 (136-87-1, 61% on the season). I also had another nice week against the spread at 10-6 to move me closer to sea level for the season (105-112-7). My over/under slide continued at 5-11, and I have officially given away all of my gains (112-111-2 on the season). The oddsmakers also had a stellar week, as I thought they would, going 13-3 straight up (122-81-5 on the season) and 10-6 against the spread (90-109-9 on the season). There were 11 games going over and just 5 under, so the over leaped into the season lead at 113-11 with 2 pushes.

You have to love this final stretch of the season because in addition to the Sunday games during the day (2 or 3 in most areas) there are 5 games televised nationally this week, and all but one (San Francisco at Arizona) has an impact on the playoff picture in one form or another. The 49ers could potentially grab the #3 seed with two wins and two Tampa Bay losses, so with that game included, 13 of 16 games this week have playoff implications. Get ready to rumble.

The key game has to be Denver at Oakland. Should the Broncos win, they need only to beat lowly Arizona at home to walk away with the AFC West division title because they win head to head tiebreakers against both San Diego and Oakland, and would win a three way tie as well. The Raiders can effectively clinch the division by winning because they need to beat only Kansas City at home, and the Chiefs are probably going to be without Priest Holmes. The other big one is Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay, which is probably going to be another MNF bust. The winner takes home their division title, while the loser has to face a difficult game that could cost them the division title. For the Bucs, they travel to Chicago, but might have the title wrapped up if New Orleans falters in Cincinnati or loses next week. For the Steelers, they host Baltimore, who might be in line to steal the division from them. That would be if Baltimore can beat Cleveland in the other big game. If Cleveland wins, they will have to turn around and root for Tampa Bay first, then Baltimore, plus beat Atlanta. Unlikely to say the least.

I’m taking 6 underdogs this week, with 3 of them winning straight up. I’ll also hope the over/under trend continues towards the high side with a 9-7 edge to the over.

Miami (9-5) @ Minnesota (4-10) pick MIN + 3.5 (over 45)

Last week the Dolphins came up with a huge victory over Oakland that set them up nicely in the playoff picture. However, now they hit the road for this one and next week travel to Gilette Stadium against the Patriots, so a 9-7 finish is still a possibility. Right now they are rolling, especially on offense where they have posted 21 points in five games in a row, which is where they were before Fiedler went down (6 straight over 21 points) and their 25.4 point average in that stretch produced a 4-1 record. That will get it done against most teams with their defense, but against Minnesota on the road it might be another story. The Vikes regularly put up 20 points (11 of 14 games) and have gone 31 or over four times including last week’s upset in New Orleans. They have also quietly won 3 of their last 5 games on the road (overshadowed by the 16 game road losing streak they just snapped) with only close losses to the Giants and Falcons. The Dolphins are just 2-4 on the road and give up a gaudy 26.3 points per game.

The key to this game is that Minnesota is just the kind of team that matches up well against Miami. Their secondary is horrible (31st, 260.0) but Miami can’t really exploit that with their shaky passing game (24th, 186.4). Even against a couple of really fourth and fifth string corners last week (Oakland’s top 3 were out) Fiedler threw for only 237 yards. So you just pound Ricky Williams, right? Presumably, with the #3 rushing offense (156.0) they will, but the Vikings have not been all that bad against the run (9th, 107.4). The other issue is that troublesome road Miami defense. Yes they are #3 against both the run and pass, but Minnesota has weapons and speed in the form of Randy Moss and Michael Bennett. They will try to bump Moss at the line, but sooner or later he is going to play jump ball 40 yards down the field. Don’t forget that the Vikings have the #2 rushing offense (158.9) so even though their passing game has faltered a bit (12th, 225.0) they can still get it done offensively.

In Cris Carter’s return to Minnesota, I think there is a good chance he will leave disappointed. Minnesota showed last week that they are ticked off after a series of near misses against good teams. They have lost in OT to Buffalo (7-7) 27-20 to the Giants (8-6) 24-17 to New England (8-6) 30-24 to Atlanta (8-5-1) and 26-22 to Green Bay (11-3). Thre of those losses were at home, where they also have wins over the Saints and Packers, both sitting in playoff position. I don’t view this as much of an upset because this Dolphins team played a similar opponent up in Buffalo. In that game, Williams ran them silly, but Bledsoe picked them apart. This time it will be in a dome rather than the snow, but the result is going to be the same: MINNESOTA 27, MIAMI 26

San Francisco (9-5) @ Arizona (5-9) pick SF –3.5 (over 41)

Picking the 49ers final two games is going to be very difficult because they are likely to rest a lot of players, knowing that they are likely locked into the #4 position. If Pittsburgh beats Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football, and they do wind up beating the Cards, they should go all out because Tampa Bay faces a trip to frigid Chicago in their finale. That being said, the 49ers at less than full strength still have a lot more pop than Arizona, who is already missing a few key cogs. Losing last week to Green Bay hurt, and they are on a bit of a slide at 2-3, which came on the heels of a 3 game winning streak that began with a 38-28 win over these same Cardinals. For Arizona, this is their chance to show they can compete with a quality team late in the season. They showed a lot of grit coming from behind to beat Detroit at home two weeks ago, and followed it up with a strong showing before collapsing late in a 30-28 loss in St. Louis. Now they face contenders, however, so the game changes.

Whether or not Garcia and Owens play, and how much they play, certainly is a factor, but you have to think that they will be in there until this game is decided. I also expect the 49ers to use their strong running game (6th, 138.9) to simply overpower Arizona, who hasn’t stopped the run all year (25th, 127.2). In the meantime, they can stack the line to stop Arizona’s ground game (14th, 116.5) because their group of wide receivers is a bunch of cast-offs after their top four guys got hurt. When one team can control the game on the ground the way San Francisco will, the rest really doesn’t matter. Case in point would be last week’s MNF game where Tennessee dictated the game even with mostly short gains running the ball (other than an occasional burst from Holcombe).

San Francisco is closer to that #3 seed than they think, and although it might carry a visit from Vick in the first round, I think they are going to go ahead and fight for it. Arizona’s last two weeks have been against teams that are out of it. Their last result against a team that was in it was a 49-0 loss to Kansas City. This won’t be that ugly because SF has no interest in running this score up. They just want Garcia and Owens on the sidelines as soon as possible. The 49ers have had little trouble on the road (4-2) while Arizona has been ordinary at home (3-4). It bothers me a little bit that Garcia had 4 scores in the first meeting while Owens had 132 yards and caught two of those touchdowns, but unlike that game I think they will succeed on the ground after being held to 3.6 yards per rush in that contest. To boot, 227 of Plummer’s 286 yards passing are to guys who are now on the injured list: SAN FRANCISCO 27, ARIZONA 17

Philadelphia (11-3) @ Dallas (5-9) pick PHI –6.5 (under 38.5)

The Eagles are on a five game winning streak that began ironically in the game where McNabb played through a broken ankle. Even more amazing is that with a hobbled McNabb and two backups, they have posted 34 points or more three times, and delivered an average of 29.4 points thanks in part to some defensive scores. That’s bad news for a Dallas defense that is coming off allowing 68 points in their last two games after holding 11 of their first 12 opponents to 21 points or less. Of course, the only team in the first dozen to go off on them was these very Eagles, who popped them 44-13 in their final meeting at the Vet. They beat them every way possible, with McNabb’s 287 yards passing and 153 yards from the ground attack with a hefty 5.9 yard average. After effectively knocking the Jaguars and Redskins out of the playoff race, they don’t appear in solid position as a spoiler at this point.

A.J. Feeley is going to get another start, and why not? His yardage numbers go up every game, and he has a pair of touchdowns in each of his last two starts. In all he has completed a very ordinary 56.2% of his passes, but only 2 of his 96 throws have been picked off. Their biggest struggle will be having as much success against Dallas on the ground with the change of venue and less skill from the quarterback position. Dallas plays the run very well (14th, 110.9) and most teams have to get a lot of carries to wear them down. They average only 3.8 per rush (3rd in NFL). The real question is whether or not Dallas can generate anything on offense. Their rookie quarterback Chad Hutchinson has been knocked around pretty good, and sprained his knee last week. He’ll need to stay mobile against this pass rush, and Philly’s corners are likely to be all over Galloway (who will be doubled) and inconsistent rookie Bryant. Dallas has done a good job running the ball this season (12th, 117.7) and did a good job in the first meeting (123 yards, 4.7 average) but this Eagles defense is still solid in that department (6th, 98.5)

I suppose the key in this Saturday night special is how much desire Dallas has. With two teams likely to trade more than a few “three and outs” anything is really possible with a big play here and there. Philadelphia used a 4-2 edge in turnovers to help them win the first time, and Dallas’ only touchdown was on a kickoff return. I think after busting their rears all season, this Dallas defense is tired, and although the offense has showed signs of life in spots lately, this is not the defense that allows bad offenses to move the ball. Philadelphia will have just one more road game to play this season, and that is next week at the Giants: PHILADELPHIA 23, DALLAS 9

Buffalo (7-7) @ Green Bay (11-3) pick GB –6 (over 42)

If the Packers made the schedule, the Bills might be the last team they would want for a December home game. That’s because they are used to the cold, unlike the California or Florida teams. Green Bay is playing strictly for home field, and has rolled off 3 straight gritty wins, capped off by last week’s 20-14 win in San Francisco that clinched no worse than the #3 seed. They lose tiebreakers against both Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, so they will need 2 wins and a loss from both teams to wind up at #1. In the wild AFC Buffalo is supposedly still alive, but it would take about a dozen games going their way because every team that reaches 9-7 would win a tiebreaker against them other than Miami and San Diego. Supposing the Dolphins lose to Minnesota, then the Patriots (who would win the division) they would be hoping Pittsburgh beats Baltimore next week (who would have beaten Cleveland this week) to ensure no AFC North wild cards. They can’t beat out the team who loses the AFC South, so there’s 1 wild card down. That leaves them hopeful that Oakland takes out Denver and Kansas City, then Denver loses to Arizona and San Diego falls to either Kansas City or Seattle. Got all that? I guess it is only 10 games going their way, my bad.

Even with all of that, I still expect a strong effort from Buffalo this week, in a quarterback rematch of Super Bowl XXXI where Favre beat Bledsoe’s Patriots 35-21. Bledsoe is really the key, and after two horrible games in road losses in Kansas City and at the New York Jets, it looked like he had rebounded with 300+ showings against Miami and at New England, but was flat out awful last week. He went just 11 of 33 against a Chargers team that ranks 30th in pass defense. Nevertheless, this team’s passing game (3rd, 259.1) is still good, but will have to be a whole lot better against this stingy Green Bay secondary (4th, 188.4). Bledsoe has only 13 interceptions in 543 pass attempts, but he will need to be smart with the football because Green Bay ranks behind only Tampa Bay with 22 interceptions. They are 0-4 when he throws multiple interceptions, and 6-1 when he does not have a pick. The Bills will try to run the ball (20th, 103.9) because the Packers are soft in run defense (26th, 130.4) and give up a healthy 5.1 yards per carry, highest in the NFL. It could wind up as a shootout at the Okay Corral, because even though Buffalo’s secondary doesn’t give up a lot of yardage (6th, 195.0) they rank 6th in most rushing yards against them so teams don’t go that route very often. When they do, in key situations, they have delivered 23 touchdowns (24th in NFL) against only 6 interceptions (last in NFL). So it adds up to a turnover advantage for Green Bay any way you slice it. Ahman Green and the running game (11th, 121.4) will also terrorize the Bills on the ground (31st, 135.9) much like Ricky Williams did a couple weeks ago. The difference is that instead of Lucas/Fiedler, it’s Favre on third down.

I think this game can be high scoring, but really what I see is Green Bay putting up scores on their first few drives, probably 10, 13 or 17 on their initial three to four drives. Buffalo can counterpunch for maybe 7 or 10 points, but they are going to be in catch up mode all day. That’s not really when they are at their best, and the more passes Bledsoe puts up, the more chances the Packers have to haul in an interception. Meanwhile, a steady running game and darts to the outside receivers leave Green Bay’s offense rolling right up and down the field. Buffalo is 3-4 on the road, but one game they won in OT, and another was against a lost Lucas-led Miami team. Plus they have lost their last 3 in a row. Green Bay is trying to complete a perfect season at home, and although they have had some scares (three wins by 4 points or less) we all know they are money at home late in the year: GREEN BAY 30, BUFFALO 20

Chicago (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9) pick CAR –3 (under 36.5)

If you can’t play for playoff position, how about draft position? Both these teams came out of the gate strong, with the Bears 2-0 and the Panthers 3-0, but amazingly both followed that up with 8 game losing streaks. Chicago is 2-2 of late, and Carolina is 2-1, so maybe they have regained a little bit of interest. I don’t think Carolina wants to lose 10 games, even though a date in New Orleans next week is likely to seal that up anyway. Chicago might be a little sneaky in their hopes of moving up the charts in search of their franchise quarterback. Right now they are locked up with Houston and Minnesota for the 3-4-5 spots. If they win another game, however, there are 5 more teams with only 5 wins and suddenly they could be closer to the bottom of the top 10.

I think that Carolina is going to be more motivated to win this ballgame, and both teams are shorthanded with both teams starting backups at running back. That’s bad news because they both rank in the bottom 5 in yards per rush with the Panthers (3.7, 28th) only slightly better than the Bears (29th, 3.6). The big difference is the resistance because Chicago is soft against the run (28th, 131.0) while Carolina is solid (8th, 105.2). Taking to the air won’t be easy for Chicago, who turns to Chandler, a guy who admits he isn’t comfortable in their offense (22nd, 199.1) The Carolina secondary (7th, 195.9) certainly won’t help him out. Rodney Peete says he wants to remain in Carolina, which is a great sentiment, but he’s not even close to a quality starter at quarterback. Their poor passing numbers (31st, 167.2) clearly illustrate that, but Chicago’s secondary (26th, 231.9) is beat up and Muhsin Muhammad can still do some damage.

I’ll say it right now, at 1-6 on the road, the Bears are sitting ducks, having not won away from Champagne, Illinois since September 15 (amazingly, 14-13 at Atlanta). Carolina is only 3-4 at home, having lost four of their last five, but I think they showed in their games against the Ohio teams that they have some pride and want to finish strong in spite of all the team turmoil. With a strong rushing edge they will control this game from start to finish, and their defense will dominate: CAROLINA 24, CHICAGO 6

Detroit (3-11) @ Atlanta (8-5-1) pick ATL –10.5 (over 43.5)

Last week the Lions almost pulled off a shocker before falling 23-20 to Tampa Bay, extending their losing streak to 6 games. They also lost rookie quarterback Joey Harrington for the season with an irregular heartbeat. Atlanta had their first does of overconfidence, losing their second game in a row, 30-24 to Seattle in OT. By all rights they had the game won, but they found out what happens if you don’t punch it in for a touchdown when Feely missed a chip shot 36 yard field goal that would have won the game. Vick also is starting to show vulnerability in passing the football, having thrown 6 picks in his last 7 games after zero in his first 6. Those picks came in just 208 passes, and would effectively translate to 18 picks in a season for a guy who puts it up 30 times a game. Detroit is going to have a quarterback controversy on their hands if McMahon turns it on. He already started the fire by leading his team to some scoring against the tough Tampa Bay defense last week. Some people said they shouldn’t have drafted Harrington since he was already on board, so it should be a developing situation.

Atlanta is going to have to go back to what they do best, which is running the football (4th, 148.0). That means Vick on scrambles, Dunn on pitches, and pound Duckett up the middle. Duckett had only 2 carries last week, which begs the question of why they spent a first round pick on a guy to warm the bench. Detroit has been very good in run defense (15th, 115.4) and while the yardage is high, their average per carry is low (3.8, 3rd in NFL). Teams get ahead of them and run out the clock (30.0 rushes per game, 8th most in NFL). If Vick does throw the ball, he is probably going to have success against this secondary (29th, 251.3) that has given up 23 touchdowns (24th in NFL) against only 8 interceptions (29th in NFL). That should translate to an efficient day for him. For Detroit’s offense, they likely will be without James Stewart, but against Tampa Bay’s stingy run defense they did pretty well with the tandem of Aveion Cason and Rafael Cooper last week. The mystery duo combined to rush 18 times for 112 yards (6.2 average). They face an Atlanta defense that has been soft against the run (24th, 126.5). McMahon will also face a secondary that has given up a lot of yards (20th, 216.9).

Atlanta’s defense is much better at home, and had given up only 14.2 points per game under the dome prior to last week’s 30 point outburst that lifted them to 16.8 for the season. Detroit now has the longest losing streak on the road at 15 games, and is trying to avoid a second straight winless road campaign. Even in the familiar dome games (as this one will be) they are 0-2. The fact of the matter is that Atlanta is ticked off, and Detroit has only held one team (Dallas) to under 20 points. If Atlanta scores big again, their defense is not going to let them down two weeks in a row against a lesser opponent. Vick is going to create plenty of offense, and even though McMahon might give them some trouble, he doesn’t have enough targets to win a slugfest: ATLANTA 31, DETROIT 16

Houston (4-10) @ Washington (5-9) pick WAS –6 (over 36)

The shame of losing at home to an expansion team will keep the ‘Skins from laying down in this game, but a win is going to keep them at least out of the top 10 on draft day. Houston has already done enough, directly impacting one team’s shot at winning their division (Pittsburgh) and another’s at making the playoffs (Giants). The difference between 5-11 and 4-12 (they get the Titans who will return to Houston next week) is inconsequential. However, they have played six games in a row, having been contending in five of them, and are 2-2 over their last four games. That would be a better mark than Washington, who is coming off being swept by all 3 division rivals and giving up 29.3 points per game in the process. A 1-5 skid has made people really wonder why the word “genius” still gets mentioned in the same sentence with “Spurrier”.

Washington is going to look to the future, which means giving Patrick Ramsey a chance to gel with the offense. They have struggled to pass the ball all season (21st, 204.5) even with 35.5 pass attempts per game. Houston does not have that great of a secondary (12th, 201.0) and has allowed 21 (20th in NFL) touchdowns against only 10 interceptions (25th in NFL). Maddox shredded them for 357 yards only to have two picks taken back for scores. Washington doesn’t run much (25.6 rushes per game, 24th in NFL) but they want to get a look at rookie Ladell Betts now that Stephen Davis is out with an injury and unlikely to return next season. That means the smart play for them is to see if he can beat an ordinary Houston front line (19th, 121.6). Houston has the worst offense I’ve ever seen. They have the worst passing game and second worst running game. Washington’s secondary (10th, 199.0) will run Champ Bailey on Corey Bradford like a second skin, and their run defense (17th, 117.8) is good enough to handle Jonathan Wells and James Allen.

I think Spurrier needs a rousing win, and from his days at Florida he knows how to run it up on a helpless opponent. The Redskins are going to be in great field position all day long. After a while, that leads to scores even against a decent Houston defense that has found a way to hold 5 teams to 19 points or less. Even though his offense isn’t great, they have put up 20 points in 8 of their 14 games, so I have no reason to expect less than that. Once the game is in hand, look for some garbage time scoring to make it look like a blowout: WASHINGTON 28, HOUSTON 10

New Orleans (9-5) @ Cincinnati (1-13) pick CIN +7 (over 47)

The Saints got their wake up call last week, suffering their second loss of the season to a team with a losing record because they can’t hold anyone under 20 points. It was also the second time they had scored over 30 points and lost (37-35 to Atlanta was the other. Even though the offense has 9 efforts of 29 points plus (and would have more if not for injuries) they cannot continue this trend and expect to make a playoff run. Defenses tighten up in the post-season. The wild card is sitting for the taking as 5-9 Carolina visits them next week, but they may have blown the division title by losing last week. That’s because Tampa Bay is going to lose either to Pittsburgh or in chilly Chicago and would have finished at best 12-4, a mark New Orleans could have reached. With a series sweep, they would have been South champs. The Bengals have already locked up the top pick in the draft, so they are going to go all out. For them, that means adding to their 5 losses by a single score or less.

Aaron Brooks is a trooper, and is playing through an injury, but they are more likely to run the ball (15th, 115.1) against a soft Cincinnati front line (30th, 133.6) than go aerial. If he does go up top, it will be to the end zone, where opponents have spent plenty of time running past the Cincinnati secondary (28 touchdowns, worst in NFL) and very little time running back at him with the ball (10 interceptions, 27th in NFL). The Bengals scored 7 points or less in their first three home games (all losses of course) but at least have shown offensive life since then with a 20.5 scoring average. They haven’t been able to get Dillon enough carries to really get the running game (22nd, 100.4) in high gear. Six times he has failed to get even 20 carries, and aside from a 30 carry day against Tennessee (30-24 loss) his season high is only 23. They have not been blown out (over 14 points) in any game where he has hit 21 carries. The Saints have a susceptible front line (18th, 119.0) with a pedestrian 4.5 yards per carry allowed (24th in NFL) so there is a chance Dillon could rip off a few big runs and keep Brooks and McAllister off the field. Meanwhile, Jon Kitna has quietly reeled off pretty good outings in 7 of his last 8 starts. In that stretch he has 8 games in a row with 250 or more yards passing and just had a 7 game touchdown streak snapped last week. If you double his numbers, you get 24 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 3,904 yards. So can someone please tell me why this guy lost his job in the first place? They don’t need to draft a quarterback, they need help on defense and another wide receiver. At any rate, there is no reason to expect less than 275 yards against this New Orleans secondary (28th, 245.3).

I think these guys are going to move the ball up and down the field all day long. It might be a situation where the team with the last possession wins, just like last week when the Vikes pulled out the two-point conversion to beat the Saints. If Cincinnati is smart, they will work the clock and hope to finally pull one out in the end. However, they aren’t smart, and never find a way to win. They have made my Ohio resurgence prediction only half true this season, and made me look like an idiot for picking them to win more games than they lose. I can’t see any reason their luck turns around here because the Saints would fall into a possible tiebreaker situation with the Giants for the final spot if they blow this game. Because of their loss to the Vikings, losing this game would allow the Giants to win twice and beat them out: NEW ORLEANS 31, CINCINNATI 27

NY Giants (8-6) @ Indianapolis (9-5) pick NYG +5.5 (over 41)

Believe it or not, the huge turn of events last week created such a big turnaround for the Giants that if they win this game, neither the Falcons nor Saints can lock them out this week. Two wins over their divisional rivals has put them back in the race, but now they have to hit the road, where they have had some success (4-3) and are 2-0 in dome games (26-21 over St. Louis, 27-20 over Minnesota). For all the Colts have done on their 5-1 stretch, they lost the game that mattered to Tennessee and need the Titans to lose a game or they will be wild card bound. They are 4-2 at home, but all only one win was over a presently .500 team (22-20 over Baltimore, who is 7-7) and they lost to both teams that came in and now have a winning record (23-15 to Tennessee and 21-13 to Miami).

Last week the Colts ran for 143 yards, and only 32 of them came from Edgerrin James. That’s because he is not 100% and hasn’t been all season so James Mungro gives them a better shot at establishing the run (23rd, 98.9). The Giants have been burned on the ground (22nd, 125.9) lately and overall have a high average allowed (4.7, 28th). It didn’t cost them the last two weeks because Washington doesn’t run and Dallas was behind big early on. The previous week Tennessee piled up 142 yards and even lowly Houston had 123 yards against them. This is a problem when a team can run a little and then cut loose Peyton Manning to throw a deep ball in the direction of Marvin Harrison. The Colts have passed the ball well all season (4th, 254.3) and although New York is strong in the secondary (3rd, 187.6) they are beaten up and Will Allen might not answer the bell. The Giants have to get out of their blue-collar game plan when they hit the road, especially in a dome. Tiki Barber is one of the most dangerous all-purpose backs in the game, and will certainly be able to find some room inside as well as outside against a soft Indy front line (21st, 123.3). Collins is having another big yardage season in the passing department (8th, 238.4) that ranks ahead of Favre’s Packers and Brady’s Patriots, not to mention Brooks’ Saints and Culpepper’s Vikings. They have just 14 passing touchdowns (27th in NFL) though, and the Colts have not allowed much in the air (2nd, 174.9).

I know Barber can keep his team in the game, but I doubt the Giants can trade scores with the Colts. On the road the Giants have actually done pretty well on defense, giving up between 16 and 21 points in every contest. The Colts haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard at home (19.5 scoring average) and when you throw out their 3 point stuffs against horrible offenses (Dallas and Houston) they allow 21.3 points a contest. I could see this turning into somewhat of a defensive struggle with field position and field goal accuracy weighing heavy. These teams have combined to have 19 of their 28 games decided by one score or less, so you really can’t expect anything different this week. In the end, Manning knows how to finish a drive, and Collins doesn’t. That’s your deciding factor: INDIANAPOLIS 23, NY GIANTS 19

San Diego (8-6) @ Kansas City (7-7) pick KC –1.5 (under 44)

The Chiefs weren’t in a bad spot entering last week, but they sure are now. Losing to Denver put them on 5 conference losses, a mark that 4 teams can finish no worse than. They also lost about 90% of their offense figuratively speaking when Priest Holmes went down. So instead of a barnburner between two of the top rushers in the game, the Chiefs have to cart out Mike Cloud who had plenty of chances to win the job before Holmes arrived on the scene. He is not lacking in confidence though, and the bigger factor is their defense, which after allowing Denver to pile on them in a 37-34 loss on October 20, has given up 10, 16, 0 and 10 in their last four home games. Included in that were Oakland, Buffalo, Arizona and St. Louis so it wasn’t at all a soft group. The Chargers stink on the road, where they have lost 3 of their last 4 including last week’s 20-13 loss to Buffalo. They are 3-4 overall, but two of the wins are over Cincinnati and Arizona. The other win was over Oakland in a game where they played in similar weather and easily could have lost if they hadn’t won the OT coin flip. A win would create positive scenarios for the Chiefs, while a loss would have them planning for 2003. For San Diego, a win keeps their AFC West title hopes alive, and puts them a win over Seattle away from likely making the playoffs.

The Chargers still have their horse, and intend to ride him in the running game (8th, 134.6) against a KC front line (16th, 117.0) that has tightened up the reins lately, but still gives up 4.7 yards per carry (28th in NFL) overall. In the thrilling first meeting (won by San Diego 35-34 on a late touchdown) they had 153 yards rushing, but when you look closer you see that 65 of that came from receivers and their quarterback. Tomlinson was held to only 78 yards on 20 carries. You can put any sort of spin you want on it, but pulling Brees had to do something to his confidence, especially since the passing game (23rd, 187.6) hasn’t been productive all year. However, the Chiefs give up gobs of passing yards (last, 276.6) and Brees had his first 300 yard game as a pro the first time around. He finished at 28 of 41 for 319 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. It was one of just 2 games this season in which he has thrown for over 240 yards. Offensively, the Chiefs are going to be handcuffed. San Diego linebacker Donnie Edwards returns to wreak havoc on his former team, and although his knowledge of the team did nothing the first time around, with Holmes out and Green a little banged up it might be more of a factor this time. Somehow Kansas City has managed to mount a passing game (11th, 226.2) even with no quality wide receivers other than tight end Tony Gonzalez. The San Diego secondary has been awful (30th, 253.1) while stud rookie Quentin Jammer has growing pains. Green did not have a huge day, but a very efficient one, going 17 of 29 for 236 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He had a better average per pass attempt than Brees that day. San Diego’s run defense (11th, 108.8) is not the same without Parella, and even against Mike Cloud might give up some yardage.

With Holmes in there, this would be a slam dunk pick. I still like the Chiefs because they win clutch games at home. Brees is shaken up, Tomlinson has four times managed under 4.0 yards per rush against bad defenses, and without him going off, you can’t count on Brees throwing for another 319 yards. This is not going to be another 35-34 game, even though I was wrong about the Chiefs-Broncos rematch not being high scoring again and it was (even though it did produce 16 fewer points). I think the Chiefs will step it up on defense again, and leave their playoff hopes alive while leaving the hated Raiders in the cat bird’s seat atop the division: KANSAS CITY 24, SAN DIEGO 17

Tennessee (9-5) @ Jacksonville (6-8) pick JAX +3 (under 44)

Talk about teams headed in different directions. When these teams first met back on October 1, the Titans were 1-4 and looking dead. Jacksonville was 3-1 and had just dumped the Eagles. Funny how quickly things change. For the Tiants the 23-14 win started a 5 game winning streak, and they are on an 8-1 run. For the Jaguars it started a 4 game skid, and they are on a 3-7 slide. Jacksonville has simply not had enough offense to put them over the hump. No team has beaten them by over 7 points all year, and a staggering 5 losses have been by a field goal or less. Think they wish they had kept Mike Hollis? Tennessee has done just the opposite, with that 9 point margin over Jacksonville standing as the only win by over one score for the season prior to their last two wins (27-17 over Indy, 27-7 over New England). The Jags are road kill at this point, but they would love to spoil the division title bid of the team that started their descent.

It’s almost wrong to look at Tennessee from a statistical standpoint, because they win with intangibles. Their MNF win over New England was a perfect example. They control the clock by slamming Eddie George into the line for minimal gains, plug in Robert Holcombe for a big gain, and then let Steve McNair create something in a critical spot. They dominated the first meeting in much the same way as they beat the Pats, holding the ball for 63% of the game. When your opponent runs only 42 plays on offense, it is impossible for them to get into rhythm. Jacksonville has an ordinary secondary (17th, 213.9) and below average run defense (23rd, 126.4) so how can you expect Tennessee not to be able to control the clock and the game again? Jacksonville has really no passing game (28th, 179.4) and that puts pressure on their running game (9th, 132.9) to carry the team. Last time around, Garrard was forced into duty, however, so this might be a different story altogether. That’s because Brunell’s absence allowed them to lock up Fred Taylor (19 carries, 59 yards). If he gets loose, it could affect Tennessee’s plans. The Titans do have a solid run defense (4th, 94.4) but teams tend to not perform as well on the road defensively. Their secondary (24th, 228.9) has given up 26 touchdowns (29th in NFL) but if Samari Rolle can contain Jimmy Smith with safety help they should be okay.

I’m inclined to think Tennessee’s lucky string is going to run out sooner or later, and conversely the Jaguars have to get lucky and win one the same way Minnesota did last week. There is no bigger trap game on the schedule this week. I think Coughlin will rally his troops, which unlike some of the other lesser teams are pretty much in full health. Eventually the banged up McNair is going to show ill effects, and I think it is going to cost his team a win. The guy can’t just blow off practice every week and keep winning games: JACKSONVILLE 22, TENNESSEE 21

St. Louis (6-8) @ Seattle (5-9) pick SEA +1 (over 46)

Stunning statistic of the year has to be the Rams with their third string quarterback starting being 6-0, while going 0-8 with two-time MVP Kurt Warner and his thought to be capable backup Jamie Martin. Even with their slide when Bulger went down, they are still on a 6-3 run. I know, sounds insane talking about the team needing their #3 quarterback to get healthy. In games he has started, however, they have put up 27 five times with a 21 spot in the other game, and a 28.5 scoring average. In games he hasn’t started, that average falls all the way to 10.9 points per game, with a high water mark of 21. Yeah, he has had the good fortune of facing Arizona (twice) Chicago, and then reeling Seattle, but he also beat red hot Oakland and playoff hungry San Diego. The Rams are trying to finish the season by sweeping their division foes, and would be looking at a 5-1 division record if they can get it done. The Seahawks are trying to avoid the division cellar, and still could finish in second place if they win this game. Since their awful 1-5 start was capped off with a 37-20 to these Rams, they have played pretty well at 4-4. Of their losses, 3 have come against good teams in Philly, San Francisco and Denver.

For the record, the first time around will bear little resemblance to this game. In that one Marshall Faulk was in full throttle and piled up 235 total yards on 39 touches. The rest of the team had a total of 29 touches. What resulted was a 40:27 to 19:33 edge in time of possession, 50% conversion rate on third down, 83-49 advantage in plays run, and an astounding 16-2 edge in first downs via the run. The Seattle highlight was Koren Robinson’s 166 yards receiving, but 79 of that came on a long touchdown, and he made only 2 other catches. Shaun Alexander was held to 30 yards on 12 carries. This time around it looks like Bulger will have to pass more, but the guy has averaged 302.5 yards passing. Rich Gannon (314.9) is the only one with a higher average. Wet conditions in the Pacific Northwest should slow his receivers down and hurt the bombs, but Seattle’s secondary is nothing special (13th, 202.2). It looks like Trung Canidate will get the start because Gordon and Faulk are both hurting, and mixed with crummy weather are best sitting this one out entirely if I was coaching. The kid will get some confidence back because Seattle has by far (31 yards) the worst rushing defense (166.9) in the NFL and gives up a hearty 5.0 yards a crack (31st in NFL). The Seahawks have their offense going, especially in the passing game (7th, 239.9) where Robinson and Jackson are going to be a formidable duo for years to come. Outside of the dome, the secondary of the Rams (9th, 198.6) will not be as effective, and if you throw out the tough Philly defense, Hasselbeck’s average is 362.3 yards passing over his last 3 starts. Shaun Alexander will hope to splash to some rushing yardage because for the season their running game has been just below average (19th, 105.5). Again, St. Louis has a capable run defense (11th, 108.8) but bad weather always favors the team that knows where they are going, which would be the offense.

The forecast is calling for rain, and since both teams I think are actually pretty evenly matched up offensively, all that will do is force both to the ground where both will be less effective. Canidate is small, and usually in the rain big guys like Alexander can splash through some tackles. Look for this to be a big key to the game. St. Louis is not going to play keep away this time, so look for a back and forth battle. Seattle is only 2-5 at home, but St. Louis is 1-6 on the road. I’ll use that as the difference in this game because we all know the Rams are much worse off playing outdoors: SEATTLE 27, ST. LOUIS 23

Cleveland (7-7) @ Baltimore (7-7) pick BAL –2.5 (under 41)

Since the Ravens were declared “out of the playoffs” by their wise ass head coach, an obvious motivational tool, they have gone 3-1 and stand ready to steal the AFC North title. However, we are talking about a team with a 4-4 record in their last 8 and the only big win was 13-12 over Tennessee (who hasn’t lost any other game over their past 9). The other wins were over 1 win wonder Cincinnati (twice) and expansion Houston. The Browns are still wondering why Dwayne Rudd threw his helmet on opening day, because otherwise they would be in the driver’s seat. As it is they have lost two of three to fall into the “need help” section. The key is the MNF result the following day. If Pittsburgh wins that game, neither team can beat them out. If Pittsburgh loses, however, the winner of this game can take the division with another win. Cleveland gets Atlanta on their home field, no easy task, but the Ravens at least control their own destiny by heading to Heinz Field to play the Steelers.

In the first meeting, both offenses clicked, with Cleveland holding a 433-409 edge in total yards. Baltimore did it on the ground (201 yards) while Cleveland did it in the air (371 yards) behind both Couch and Holcomb. The teams combined to convert a healthy 13 of 30 (43%) on third down and the big key was a 5-1 turnover margin in favor of Baltimore. What amazes me is how the Browns stayed in the game given that fact. This time around Cleveland has a new weapon in William Green, who did play early in the season, but not to his potential. Over his last 5 games he has averaged 98.4 yards rushing (3.9 per rush) and the Browns have risen out of the gutter in rushing yardage (25th, 96.7). So expect more balance out of their offense this time around after a 49-17 passing edge in the first meeting. The Ravens are still capable of shutting down the run (13th, 109.3) and limit teams to 3.8 yards per rush (3.8) but at least the Browns will try more often. In the air, Couch will lead a decent passing game (15th, 221.4) that honestly was better when Holcomb was under center. Baltimore’s secondary has been porous (25th, 229.7) but mostly because they face a lot more passes when teams can’t run against them. The Ravens will attack them on the ground (17th, 109.4) again because Cleveland can’t stop it (27th, 130.6). There is no passing game in Baltimore (29th, 172.1) although this time it will be the more capable Jeff Blake leading them against Cleveland’s secondary (15th, 208.1).

I really don’t know how Baltimore is holding on after losing most of their team, but they are 4-3 at home and still have some guys who were around in the playoff runs of the last two years. Cleveland has been great on the road (5-2) with the only losses being a 16-13 defeat in Pittsburgh and 17-3 loss at Tampa Bay. No shame there. I like the fact that they can run a little now, and that should cut out the turnovers they had in the first game. When you throw 49 passes, the likelihood of 4 going to the opposition is there. I still think Baltimore can dictate the pace of the game, however, and while Cleveland is used to close games they are only 5-6 in one score contests this year. Baltimore is 5-3, and they are at home. That’s the difference, along with the experience and better coaching: BALTIMORE 19, CLEVELAND 15

Denver (8-6) @ Oakland (9-5) pick DEN +4 (over 47)

It’s not a stretch to say the winner of this game will win the AFC West title. Denver would need only to beat Arizona at home, while Oakland would need only beat Holmes-less Kansas City to be crowned champs. Should San Diego lose earlier in the day, a Raiders win would make them champs. When they first met, Denver was coming off a bye week with a sparkling 6-2 record and had just beaten the defending champs in their own stadium. Oakland was riding a four game losing streak that had leveled their record at 4-4, leaving everyone talking about them being old. Then the Raiders went into Invesco Field and decimated Denver 34-10, kicking off a five game winning streak that was snapped in Miami last week. Denver has never really recovered, as that kicked off a 1-4 stretch, before they picked up a win last week over Kansas City. In that first game, the Raiders had a big play when Rod Woodson picked off a pass at his own 2 yard line and took it to the house. By the end of the game, Denver had piled up some statistics, but Oakland didn’t punt until midway through the fourth quarter. Oakland came in set on throwing the ball, and a 53-14 edge in passes versus rushes produced a 352-yard performance from Gannon in which he effectively completed 30 passes in a row to start the game. His first incompletion was later found to be a horrible call by an out of position official.

This time around, clearly Shanahan will have something in mind to eliminate the “dink” passes underneath that Gannon used to pick apart Denver’s secondary. Either way, Oakland’s top ranked passing game (301.1) is far and away the best in football and is going to find a way to get by Denver’s (19th, 216.3) defenders. They might try to run the ball (27th, 96.1) and pounder Tyrone Wheatley has gotten some work lately with 8 carries per game over the last four. Denver’s first attack is coming in the air (6th, 242.1) because Oakland is out of stars in the secondary. What Oakland needs to do is put Rod Woodson at corner and hope that Gibson and Dorsett can handle safety duties. At least then the quality of personnel goes up. With a rash of injuries their secondary (21st, 225.1) has been in trouble big time. Since they will be able to mix it up, Denver can also turn to the running game (7th, 137.6) even though the Raiders have been sout in that department (5th, 94.9)

What I’d do is keep those three safeties on the field, with Rod Woodson lining up on the slow footed Ed McCaffrey and then hope that Tori James can answer the bell to cover slumping Rod Smith with safety support from Dorsett. That leaves Terrance Shaw to cover their rookie Lelie and put Romo on Sharpe patrol. Since they don’t have my genius, more likely they will just put themselves in a nickel package and not allow the Broncos to make the big plays that Miami made last week. Oakland is going to move the ball, this is a team that has put up 26 points in 9 of 14 games, and averages 29.5 points at home where they are 4-2, both losses coming in “blown coin flip” OT games. They only allow 20.5 points per game (throwing out OT points) on their home turf, and the fans are nuts. Denver is 4-3 on the road, but has lost their last two, and hasn’t beaten a good team away since before their bye week. They do score a crisp 25.6 points while allowing 22.3 points. I’m definitely seeing both teams going over 20, and the punters are not going to get a lot of work. I stuck with Oakland last week when my gut told me they would lose, and this week I am simply taking the hotter team. Injuries hurt, but there are a lot of other players on the field besides the two corners: OAKLAND 28, DENVER 26

NY Jets (7-7) @ New England (8-6) pick NE –3.5 (under 42)

Does anyone even remember when these teams first met? Sometimes the schedule makers put meetings too close together, but in this case they are 14 weeks apart, that’s 3 ½ months. Heck, it was still summer when the Patriots clobbered New York 44-7, and now it is winter. Back then, New York was beginning a tough four game slide, caused by Curtis Martin being banged up. He got a little better with the bye week, and they went on a 6-2 roll before falling asleep in a 20-13 loss at Chicago last week. The Patriots were being dubbed the next 16-0 team at the time, rolling to a 3-0 start with another win the following week. Then a four game slide hit, but like the Jets, they recovered to go on a 5-1 run before being silenced in Tennessee last week. The table is set for New England to win two games at home (next week is Miami) and walk away with the division title. However, the pesky Jets are not done just yet. If somehow the Vikings beat Miami, and the Jets win this game, another Jets win next week (over Green Bay at home) coupled with New England beating Miami would create a three-way tie. Because common opponents comes before conference record, guess what? The Jets would win the division.

The first meeting was far too long ago to use as a point of reference, these teams have been through way too much since then. This time around I think New England will attack New York’s weak run defense (22nd, 125.9) and try to finally get Antowain Smith and the running game (30th, 92.5) involved. The Pats have run the ball just 24.4 times per game (7th fewest in NFL) and for the season have 18 fewer carries than Spurrier’s pass happy Redskins. That’s unacceptable. Yes, they have a nice group of capable if not spectacular receivers and a good passing game (10th, 231.6) but anyone will tell you that the ground is far more consistent unless you’ve got two future hall of famers catching the passes like Oakland does. New York does not have a great secondary (22nd, 225.9) but allows a very few yards per catch (10.5, 3rd in NFL) and has given up only 14 passing touchdowns (5th in NFL) so they shouldn’t be underestimated. The Jets have also been reluctant to run the ball (24th, 98.6) with 1 fewer carry on the season than New England, but they have a higher average (4.1 to 3.8) and Curtis Martin can still make people miss. New England’s run defense (28th, 131.0) has been pretty bad so look for Martin to see plenty of carries. The first time around it was Vinny Testaverde, so Chad Pennington might be confused a bit by the schemes of New England’s secondary (11th, 199.4) but he has been great since he got the job and leads an improving passing game (20th, 208.9).

The thing to consider is that both teams were going 100 miles per hour until last week, when they both got a flat tire. The home field is a clear advantage for New England at this time in the season, but the cold weather is no factor because the Jets play and live in it. The Patriots are only 3-3 at home, and two of those wins were by a touchdown or less. The Jets have struggled to a 3-4 road record, but lost two of those when Martin was hurting, and had a huge 44-13 win in San Diego. Even though I picked the Titans last week, I expected New England to come out and play well, but they didn’t. Can they turn the switch back on? New York now has a game film that clearly illustrates how to stop their offense. I don’t think it is enough because Belichick knows how to ruin young quarterbacks. He will design a scheme to give Pennington problems, and the Jets will be out in the cold for the playoffs: NEW ENGLAND 24, NEW YORK JETS 16

Pittsburgh (8-5-1) @ Tampa Bay (11-3) pick TB –4 (under 41)

After a disappointing 1-3 start that included losses to three teams that have combined to 26 games, and a win over otherwise 7-5 Cleveland, Pittsburgh started rolling. They are 7-2-1 since, with losses to red hot Tennessee and that mystifying loss to Houston. A win gives them the AFC North title, something they cannot clinch otherwise, regardless of the outcome between Baltimore and Cleveland. Tampa Bay might be fighting for home field throughout, and on a 6-1 run, but they still have not clinched the NFC South title. Losing this week might force them to win their first ever cold weather game the following week in Chicago (actually Champagne, Illinois). Monday night games this year have been a real bore, and even last week’s intriguing game between co-division leaders was a dud. Is this the game to break the trend? In 15 MNF games, 12 have been decided by two scores (11 points) or more. One of the three that wasn’t saw Oakland ahead 23-13 late before some garbage time scoring. The average margin of victory is 15.1 points, and 6 of 15 games have been decided by 17 or more.

The Bucs cannot run the ball (28th, 94.4) and free agent signing Michael Pittman finally scored his first touchdown of the season last week. The Steelers suddenly lead the NFL in run defense (84.8) and also yards per rush (3.7). That will send Brad Johnson to the air, where the Bucs have had slightly above average success (14th, 223.6) and a sore thumb means he will miss the entire week of practice. Pittsburgh does not have a great secondary (16th, 210.6) but can certainly stay in a nickel given their run defense against Tampa Bay’s run offense. For Pittsburgh, Tommy Maddox appears to have gotten over his “yips” and although he had only 209 yards against the tough Carolina secondary he completed 61% of his passes with only 1 turnover. He has helped Pittsburgh’s passing game (5th, 244.5) rank ahead of teams led by Favre, Brady, Culpepper, Brooks and Garcia. This is by far his toughest test, because Tampa Bay’s secondary (1st, 151.3) is 23.6 yards better than any other NFL team. They lead the league at 9 touchdowns allowed and 27 interceptions. Next on the list is 12 and 22 respectively. So if Pittsburgh wants to succeed, they better take short passes and run the ball (10th, 132.2). That means going at the Tampa Bay front line (7th, 98.6) that is not impenetrable. Only 7 teams have had opponents run at them less than Tampa Bay (25.1 attempts per game) but you better believe Pittsburgh will slam Bettis at them repeatedly if he gains even 3 yards.

Warren Sapp is an idiot. He does not play to the level of the hype he creates for himself by running his mouth, and Pittsburgh’s Lee Flowers was right by calling Tampa Bay “paper champions” after Pittsburgh’s 17-10 win here last year. This year the Bucs are 6-1 at home, losing only their opener to New Orleans (26-20 in overtime). They have held 4 teams to 10 points or less including Vick and Favre’s teams. Pittsburgh is just 4-3 on the road, with 3 of those wins coming by a field goal or less. To me that says they could easily be 1-6 on the road. I know Cowher has an unreal record on MNF, but in this case I think Tampa Bay has enough to pull out the win. The turnovers will be the difference in an ugly game: TAMPA BAY 15, PITTSBURGH 9