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Fantasy Football Preview 2004: Defense Rankings

I'm not fan of defense in fantasy because it is so fickle from season to season and very difficult to prognosticate. Usually you want to stick with traditional powers and teams that don't give up a lot of points.
#1 Miami: If the best defense is a good offense the Dolphins should be much improved on that side of the ball this year after adding Boston and Feeley through trades. The more a team can move the ball, the less their defense has to be on the field. Last year they were #3 in scoring, one point short of the #2 spot. They still have a pair of standout corners, a strong middle linebacker and a pass rusher. That core plus good role players is all a defense really needs.

#2 Baltimore: What can you say about a team that led the NFL in sacks and defensive touchdowns, was #2 in turnovers and sixth in scoring? They have all the pieces back and ready for another solid fantasy showing. They have a pounding, ball control offense that keeps them off the field. If Boller can avoid turnovers that put them in a bad position they should again be at the top of the heap.

#3 Dallas: Ten times last year they held teams to 16 poins or less, and in five of those games their opponent failed to score a touchdown. That's not too shabby, but they tied for #21 in sacks and turnovers, and they only scored 2 on defense twice. Things like that killed them in the fantasy world, but with another year of experience they should improve on those figures. Also, Eddie George and Julius Jones add a running game to the mix and will keep the defense off the field.

#4 New England: They led the league in scoring defense last year and were second in turnovers and defensive touchdowns, but will have to replace a pair of starters on their defensive line. That will hurt because they added a pair of rookies to fill the void and there is going to be a talent dropoff. On the upside, their offense should be able to contrl the ball now that they have added Dillon to their running game and Roosevelt Colvin is healthy again. Still, there is a huge target on their back and they will have to face several pretty good offenses along the way. Plus, during the FFL playoffs they will be on the road.

#5 Philadelphia: Last year they held 12 of 18 teams to 17 points or less including the playoffs. The unit was solid if not spectacular, but now the challenge is to replace their standout starting corners. The toughest part about them is that during weeks 13-16 they face Green Bay, Washington, Dallas and St. Louis. So while they might help you get to the playoffs it is a tough draw to play at the Rams during the FFL title game. Overall I expect the Eagles to be a very strong team with a much improved offense thanks to Owens. They should post solid points against totals with decent turnover and sack figures even though they might give up some big plays early on with their new corners.

#6 Tampa Bay: It was a pretty up and down season for them last year. Four times they held an opponent without a touchdown including two shutouts. Five other times they gave up 24 or more points including three times over 30. Going into the final two weeks they had an average of 14.36 points allowed before getting trashed by Atlanta and Tennessee, but they still finished with one touchdown of being the #2 squad in scoring defense. Now they lose Sapp and Lynch, and really didn't do a lot to replace them. They also face a group of tough offenses with the AFC West and at least nine good ones overall. They got mugged on their home field and have really lost their swagger.

#7 Carolina: They tied for #7 in sacks last year and #10 in scoring defense, but were tied for #17 in turnovers although they did lead the NFL with 5 blocked kicks. In 9 of 19 games they held their opponents to 17 points or less, but now the target of the NFC title is squarely on their back. They added corner Chris Gamble in the first round, so that should help. On the downside they are on the road during the typical FFL playoff weeks (15 at Atlanta, 16 at Tampa Bay) and in the previous two weeks they have to face the Saints and Rams. Overall they will be a solid defense that a lot of owners will reach for too early.

#8 Tennessee: Since they had no money to spend in free agency they loaded up on defense in the draft with six players taken from #42 to #124 overall on that side of the ball. It was tough to lose Kearse though because pass rushers are tough to come by. Last year they held 10 of 18 teams to 17 points or less and were #9 in sacks and #8 in turnovers. They also ranked third in defensive scores with 5. Now they lose their pounding running back George and one of their starting receivers (McCareins) so we'll see if that puts more pressure on their defense. However, they don't play a lot of stellar offenses as only Indianapolis (twice), Green Bay, Minnesota and Kansas City stand out on the schedule. They draw a lot of potentially middle of the road offenses and could really put up good numbers in those games.

#9 Oakland: Get ready for a major turnaround from them after they picked up a pair of defensive linemen, a couple of linebackers and a stash of players for the secondary. After finishing #25 in sacks last year you can expect that number to jump with Hamilton, Washington and Sapp joining a line that already includes Parella and talented youngster Brayton. They were #18 in turnovers, but picking up Ray Buchanan and drafting Schweigert to start at the safety positions is going to help that cause. Overall they are staring at a serious bounce back season and should make an impact in the fantasy world.

#10 Seattle: They certainly took their lumps, especially down the stretch. Including their 33-27 playoff loss in Green Bay they gave up a gaudy 23.7 points per game over their past nine games. It helps that they spent their first two picks on defenders and grabbed Bobby Taylor to start at corner. What you want to notice is that they only gave up 14.5 points per game at home, so if you get two decent defenses you should be able to rotate them in nicely. Either way, they have a good offense and are a lock to win 10+ games which makes them a good defense to have.

#11 Buffalo: You might be surprised to see that they were #4 in scoring last year and #9 in sacks, but no team had less turnovers (18). Still, even though they were just 6-10 only six of their opponents scored over 17 points and three of those were their final games when their season was tanked. In their first 13 they gave up just 15.38 points per game and now they have added linebacker Gildon and corner Vincent to the mix. I like the influx of talent over the past two years and in the black and blue AFC East defense rules. They are a solid fantasy sleeper defense if they can pick up the pace in turnovers.

#12 St. Louis: Thirteen of their 17 opponents put up at least 20 point last year including their playoff loss to Carolina. However, they were #4 in sacks and led the NFL with 46 turnovers. The big question is whether or not they will fall into the even year meltdown that wrecked them in 2000 and 2002. They didn't do a lot to improve their unit, and I expect Seattle to take over the division title this year. However, they still draw Arizona and San Francisco twice each. With high sacks and turnover numbers they should remain on the radar, but giving up a lot of points keeps them from the top 10.

#13 Minnesota: They finished #23 in scoring defense last year, but were helped by being #7 in turnovers and they threw in a pair of safeties. Late in the season their defense held up pretty well, giving up only 14.5 points per game over the final four games, which included wins over solid offenses Seattle and Kansas City. They spent their first three draft picks on defensive players and signed Winfield to play corner so they should be able to build on that momentum. As a team with a great offense that will fight for a playoff spot they shouldn't be too bad.

#14 Kansas City: Last year they were #4 in turnovers, but #19 in scoring as they engaged in a bunch of shootouts. In fact they yielded 23+ points eight times including the playoffs and four times they gave up 34 or more. That can kill you in the fantasy world. Still, they drafted a couple of defenders in the draft and as with most seasons there is optimism that they will be improved on that side of the ball.

#15 Atlanta: Only two teams gave up more points last year as 7 teams lit them up for over 30 points and 11 put up at least 23. However, they finished a decent #13 in sacks and #10 in turnovers so once the offense turns it back around they should be much, much better. They took an impact corner (DeAngelo Hall) at #8 overall, but the real help is going to be the fact that their offense doesn't go three and out every time they get the ball.

#16 New Orleans: They have mediocre numbers in pretty much every category, but they did draft DE Will Smith in the first round and LB Courtney Watson in the third. Sooner or later you would think their defensive minded coach would have an impact on them. Half of their opponents put up 20 points or more, but they did hold six teams to 14 or less. They have potential to be a solid fantasy unit out of nowhere, so keep a watch on them if they do well early.

#17 Jacksonville: The Jags were not a very good team last year, but they did have a nice run on defense in the second half. During a four game stretch they gave up just 33 points and only three touchdowns. However, in the other 12 they gave up no less than 19 points and an average of 24.8 points. Since they were #29 in sacks and #15 in turnovers and scored only one defensive touchdown it is hard to expect them to jump into the fantasy mix. However, I expect the team to be much improved this season and they did draft a few defenders to help the cause.

#18 Indianapolis: After a good start on defense (26 points in their first three games) they gave up 21+ in eleven of their final sixteen games and on two other occasions they gave up 17. I suppose with a potent, quick striking offense the pressure can mount for a defense trying to protect a lead. Worse yet, they were #23 in sacks although they did manage to finish #12 in turnovers. They drafted a safety, corner and a couple of linebackers in the first four rounds and eventually Dungy's impact is going to be felt on this team, right? I think the best news for them is that they play home games against offensively challenged Baltimore and San Diego during the FFL playoffs so paired with a team like Seattle they could form a pretty good duo.

#19 Green Bay. Yes, 11 of their 18 opponents were able to post 20+ points, but they still managed to finish #10 in scoring defense. They also had a solid second half, yielding just 14.25 points per game in their final eight regular season games. They also finished #10 in turnovers and they always seem to be high in that category. Their first three picks went to defense and late in the season they are very strong at home. They might not be a stand alone unit, but paired with another good club they can probably help you out.

#20 Cincinnati: They were #24 in sacks, #23 in turnovers and #28 in scorind defense which is pretty un Marvin Lewis-like. In all, 12 of 16 opponents posted 20+ points against them and 7 teams scored 26 or more. They did load up on defense in the draft, selecting 6 defensive players from #49 overall to #1117. If nothing else that should help their depth. The other challenge is what starting Palmer at quarterback will do to their offense. I give them a good chance to improve and quietly they might creep up the rankings and be worth a few starts. Next season, however, they probably will be closer to the top 15 or maybe top 10.

#21 Denver: They held 8 of their opponents to 17 points or less, but five of those were inside their first six games and they melted down late. In their final five games including their playoff loss to the Colts they gave up 27.2 points per game. Also, only one team had fewer turnovers (20) and they had just one defensive touchdown. That sould change with the addition of Bailey and Lynch to the secondary and they also added D.J. Williams at linebacker in the first round of the draft. The biggest red flag is that they travel to Kansas City and Tennessee during the fantasy playoffs, making it impossible to pick them as your front line defense.

#22 Detroit: At #26 in sacks and #25 in scoring they were not on the fantasy radar last year. They did finish #14 in turnovers and scored 4 defensive touchdowns. For the year 12 of 16 teams posted 20+ points against them and 4 teams put up 31 or more. That should change with their offense adding several important pieces to form a young, improving group. They could be a big surprise in the NFC Central and although they are nowhere near a starting defense, you might get a few spot starts out of them down the stretch and they do play Chicago at home during the FFL title week (16) in case you are desperate.

#23 San Francisco: The good news is that they ranked #4 in both sacks (42) and turnovers (37). The bad news is that half of their opponents put up 20+ points and they were killed won the stretch as their final 5 opponents averaged a gaudy 30.2 points per game. Now they face the challenge of having an offense that is going to take a serious hit with the loss of 4 impact starters. They stil have a lot of young talent, so if their offense can somehow be reasonably productive they have a chance to be good for a few starts.

#24 Washington: Last year 13 of their 16 opponents posted 20+ points en route to finishing #24 in scoring defense. It got ugly late as their last three opponents scored 27, 27 and 31. They were just #27 in sacks although they did place #11 in turnovers, but they failed to score a single defensive touchdown. They drafted impact safety Sean Taylor (their only pick spent on defense) but lost corner Champ Bailey in the Portis deal. I don't see a lot of success for them even with a a ball control offense that should keep them off the field.

#25 Pittsburgh: Half of their opponents scored at least 23 points last year and 4 of them put up at least 30 points as they ranked an uncharacteristic #15 in scoring defense. The trouble is that they don't have any big playmakers on defense and the the offense is flagging. I don't know how much you can rely on their history as being a traditionally strong defensive team and I could easily see them finishing 5-11 this year, which is a death wish for a fantasy defense.

#26 NY Jets: They were one of a handful of teams that finished tied for second lowest in turnovers with 20, but they did land #8 in scoring defense, holding half of their opponents to 17 points or less with only two teams scoring over 24 against them. They spent their first two picks on defense in the draft, and they play in the defensive minded AFC East, but I still view them as a last place team with the potential to finish 6-10. With Seattle and New England visiting them during the FFL playoffs they don't have a lot of value other than as a middle of the season spot start.

#27 Cleveland: The Browns are headed for a major meltdown this year, and they probably are going to take their defense down with them. They were #24 in turnovers although they did manage to finish #13 in scoring defense. However, games 12-15 they gave up a monster 29.5 points per game and that's the kind of defense I expect from them this year. Their offense is unsettled with a lot of new parts and that won't help them.

#28 Houston: Only one team had less sacks (19) and they finished #24 in turnovers. They were also #27 in scoring defense as 12 of their 16 opponents put up 19 or more points and 7 of them scored 27+. The offense still isn't very good and that keeps putting them in bad position. They spent their first four picks on defense including a pair of first round selections, which has to help. Another piece of good news is that they draw Chicago and Jacksonville during the playoff weeks, albeit on the road. You'd have to be in bad shape to require their services this season for more than one start and you might need Pepto Bismol to start them in the playoffs.

#29 Chicago: They were #22 in scoring defense, dead last in sacks (18) and only the Bills had fewer turnovers (20). Can Lovie Smith turn that around in one season? I seriously doubt it and I expect the Bears to be in the NFC Central sewer behind three teams that should all be capable on offense. They did show flashes last year with 5 games where they held their opponents to 12 points or less, but I don't expect much of that this season out of them.

#30 NY Giants: The once proud defensive unit was #29 in scoring last year and #27 in turnovers although they did manage to finish #2 in sacks (45) and scored 4 times on defense. The challenge this year is that they didn't improve on defense and their offense is now led by either head case Warner or unproven rookie Manning. That will put their defense in tough positions constantly and lead to short fields and easy scoring chances.

#31 San Diego: Only the Cards allowed more points as 14 of their 16 opponents were able to score at least 20 points and 11 scored 26+. They finished #24 in sacks and only one team had fewer turnovers. They didn't do anything to improve their situation immediately other than deal for an additional 2005 first round pick that should deliver an impact defensive player. They also took a kicker at #65 overall when they should have been taking a linebacker. Overall, they are clearly a cellar dwelling team that will fall behind early and often.

#32 Arizona: No team allowed more than they did last year (452 points) as 11 of their 16 opponents scored 24+ and 9 teams were over 28 points. That's just ugly. Oh yeah, they were #30 in sacks and #24 in turnovers. Instead of taking an impact defensive player with their #3 overall pick they went with wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Yes, their offense is promising, but no they did not improve their defense.

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