I picked up the pace a little bit last week against Vegas. I was 11-5 again picking winners straight up, leaving me 22-10 overall. I was again positive against the spread, going 9-6-1 to put me 18-13-1 for the year. I lit up the over/under at 12-4 to put me at 20-12. The odds makers were 11-5 picking winners (20-10-2 overall) and 10-5-1 against the spread (18-11-3 overall). In all 9 games were over and 7 games went under, leaving a perfect split of over and under results for the year, 16 each.

The first big whoops for me was thinking Cleveland’s inexperienced linebackers could handle Jamal Lewis. That was dumb. I don’t regret taking Pittsburgh, who looked good in the early going and simply couldn’t deliver a running game. Something told me Carolina would give the Bucs trouble again, but I didn’t have the guts to predict it. The bigger shocker for me was New England clobbering Philadelphia, who has fallen flat in the early going. Then there was Dallas on MNF, and somehow Parcells gets something out of nothing doesn’t he? Even with a few surprises, I’m still ahead of the game and I’ve got plenty of good stuff coming this week. In 14 games, I am going with 4 underdogs to cover the points with 2 of them winning straight up. I’ll take 6 games to go under and 8 games to go over.

Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Atlanta (1-1) pick TB –3.5/under 35.5

The Bucs seemed like world beaters until they forgot how to clear the defenders with a place kick. They let the Panthers take 7 points off the board with blocked kicks, including a shocking PAT knockdown with no time on the clock. Shameful. Meanwhile, Atlanta, who was also at home, forgot that no one was hurt on their defense and couldn’t hold a 17-0 lead, falling 33-31 to Washington. One thing to remember is that Tampa Bay’s defense still hasn’t allowed a touchdown. So even if they lost the game, their confidence isn’t rattled believe me. Also, they ruined Atlanta twice last year with Vick on the field. With the lead, Atlanta couldn’t run the ball, and their D&D backfield finished with only 20 combined carries. Speaking of not being able to run, Tampa Bay averaged only 2.8 yards per carry, forcing Johnson to heave 61 passes. The fact that they still couldn’t score a touchdown, even with 398 total yards says something. Both teams need to figure out a way to finish drives because defense will rule this game. Losing Jurevicius limits what Tampa Bay can do offensively. I don’t see many scores in this game, other than possibly a defensive score by the Bucs: Tampa Bay 16, Atlanta 9

Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Cincinnati (0-2) pick PIT –4.5/over 45.5

Watching the Bengals nearly upset the Raiders was a bizarre experience. Warrick and Johnson got open all day long, with Kitna throwing darts to them. The defense was smothering. I have to believe it was more of what Oakland didn’t do, however, as opposed to their strength. Unlike the Raiders, Pittsburgh has fast wide receivers that can and will beat the Cincinnati defenders deep. They will also likely amp the running game back up after abandoning it last week in Kansas City. Defensively, I can see Kitna brimming with confidence after tearing it up last week. He knows he blew the game with the pick to Buchanan, but most of the game he was very strong. I like both offenses to get thing done, but ultimately it boils down to one team being more prepared and experienced: Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 23

Minnesota (2-0) @ Detroit (1-1) pick MIN –3.5/over 46.5

Suddenly everyone is jumping on my Vikings bandwagon. Culpepper completed 77% of his passes and the backfield of Williams and Smith combined for 30 carries and 155 yards. They more or less held Chicago at bay, not really extending themselves after their emotional win in Green Bay the previous week. Speaking of going to Green Bay, the Lions made a much less successful trip, getting drubbed 31-6 and giving up a dollar short of two bills on the ground in the process. Do you see opportunity here? Bad ground defense against good running game spells doom in the Motor City. Harrington is starting to develop as a quarterback, and he is likely to make a few plays that will bring some excitement to the stadium, but can you really seem him holding up without the support of a ground game? Too much pressure, and I like the Vikes to continue their quick start: Minnesota 30, Detroit 20

Kansas City (2-0) @ Houston (1-1) pick HOU +8/over 43

The Chiefs are playing like they believe the hype, and hoping to return to this venue next February for the Super Bowl. They spotted Pittsburgh a 17-7 lead and then reeled off a big time 34-3 run to secure a huge win. On the other side, the Texans offense came back to reality with only 255 yards of total offense in a 31-10 loss at New Orleans. Carr completed only 47% of his throws and had 2 picks with no touchdowns. I see no chance for their offense to be able to match blows with the Chiefs. Defensively the teams are probably a wash, but when you mix in the offenses that they face, it could get ugly. I’m ready for Kansas City to have a letdown in their first road game, and for Houston to have a good effort in their first home game, so while I will probably regret this I’m picking a closer result than you might expect: Kansas City 26, Houston 20

Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (2-0) pick IND –7.5/under 43.5

As the saying goes, these teams are heading in different directions. By playing Leftwich at the tail end of a blowout loss, they told the NFL they were ready to look to the future. Anything is better than dealing with the reality, which is that this team is ready to fall out of the hunt very quickly. A loss here will take what is left of the wind out of their sails. Meanwhile, Indy got a gigantic, resounding 33-7 victory over the Titans, a team that owned them last season. The only concern for them is the passing game, which has produced only 1 touchdown in two games. I think this contest will resolve those concerns, and the Colts will comfortably work over the visitors: Indianapolis 31, Jacksonville 10

NY Jets (0-2) @ New England (1-1) pick NE –6.5/over 37.5

Both teams had disappointing openers, but certainly the Pats have to feel good about their chances after hammering the Eagles in Philly 31-10 last week. The Jets can’t blame Testaverde for their home loss to Miami, he completed 64% of his throws for 373 yards and only 1 interception. He’ll have to outdo Brady who himself completed 68% and while he only had 255 yards he delivered 3 touchdowns with zero interceptions against an injury depleted Eagle secondary. Both guys will have to be at the top of their game because neither team has been able to run the ball. In the final analysis, New England has much more confidence and is at home to boot. The Jets are using the Pennington injury as an excuse and psychologically are already out of it: New England 24, NY Jets 16

Green Bay (1-1) @ Arizona (0-2) pick GB –7.5/under 43

The Packers looked a lot more like the early season team of a year ago by blowing out Detroit 31-6, and now they take to the road for the first time. The good news is that it will be the friendly desert where Seattle just pounded the host 38-0. Then again, when you lose the turnover battle 6-0 what do you expect? The Cards don’t believe they can beat anyone at this point, and if the Packers roll in and start pounding the ball at them I see no reason they won’t fall into their usual ways. Favre did very little last week, and is trying to lean on his old friend Freeman in Driver’s absence. I’m expecting Walker and Ferguson to spread their wings this week: Green Bay 27, Arizona 13

St. Louis (1-1) @ Seattle (2-0) pick SEA –3/over 46.5

The Seahawks have been overlooked to this point, and this is their chance to send a message that they need to be accounted for. Winning 65-10 over your first two games has to boost your confidence, and they can hold onto first place with a win here. St. Louis is probably its own worst enemy, and they should have resolved their quarterback issue a long time ago by trading Kurt Warner away for whatever they could get. Now they’ve got unrest at the top, which hurts their team unity whether they want to admit it or not. My question is which N.C. State star wide receiver will shine the most, Robinson or Holt? Koren had to sit out last week for some mysterious team rules violation, and the passing attack of the Seahawks suffered. He will be back fired up and ready to play. The Rams refuse to stick to the running game, and that will be crucial to this game. Again being out of their element in the outdoors, I see another disappointing performance: Seattle 30, St. Louis 24

New Orleans (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-1) pick NO +5/over 44.5

Both teams have already been blown out by 17 and 26 points respectively, but you have to value Tennessee’s gritty 25-20 win over Oakland more than the Saints pounding a weak Houston team 31-10 last week. They’re also back at home where they play very, very well. What most concerns me is that Eddie George has been stuck in neutral for years now and the Titan running game has gone for only 129 yards in two games. When Deuce gets loose, it will help his Saints dictate the tempo of the game. However, he’ll be facing a much tougher defense than McNair will, so expect plenty of score trading in this game. In the end, how can you possibly bet against McNair? It makes me a little nervous that Gary Anderson will be handling the placekicking duties in a game that likely will boil down to a field goal, but I like the Titans to squeeze this one out: Tennessee 24, New Orleans 22

NY Giants (1-1) @ Washington (2-0) pick NYG +2.5/over 43

Clearly the Redskins have to realize that this is their chance to seize control of the division and never let go. A win would put them up two games over the teams that were supposed to compete for the title. Ramsey passed for 356 yards in his finest game as a pro, while the running tandem of Betts and Canidate produced another 123 yards on 26 carries. That’s solid balance and after a pair of close wins you have to realize that these guys are gaining confidence big time. On the other side of the coin, New York got Tuna’ed on national television, digging a big hole, jumping out of it and then falling right back in during a painful loss to Dallas. If they can’t handle that offensive unit on their home field, just wait until Spurrier’s group gets a hold of them in his house. I like a hard fought, slug it out battle that Washington should be able to win. The problem is that I see things evening out and New York picking up a gutsy victory: NY Giants 27, Washington 24

Baltimore (1-1) @ San Diego (0-2) pick SD +1/under 40

Poor Tomlinson is touring against the league’s best backs and being made to look very bad in the process. First Kansas City’s Holmes ran over his team in a 27-14 win, and then Portis tore his club apart in a 37-13 victory. Now the new single game rushing champ, Jamal Lewis, comes to town. Ouch. The Chargers thought David Boston would ignite their offense, but not surprisingly to me he has been a huge waste of time and money. They have no big threats to catch the football and Brees isn’t good enough to make the players he has look good. Baltimore was horrible in week 1, but simply ran wild over Cleveland’s young linebackers. They are somewhere between those two performances, and in a game that will boil down to running games and defense it will be a test of will. This is another contest where the field levels out, and I like the Chargers to wake up and be counted: San Diego 20, Baltimore 17

Cleveland (0-2) @ San Francisco (1-1) pick SF –7/under 44.5

The 49ers are smarting from an overtime loss in St. Louis, but now they get another Midwest lightweight to push over. Cleveland had their young linebackers schooled last week, giving up 343 yards rushing to Baltimore and getting another ugly outing from new starting quarterback Holcomb. They are pretty much screaming for Couch after his replacement has thrown for just 329 yards and 1 touchdown in two games while completing only 56% of his passes. He’ll look to take advantage of a soft 49er secondary this week. However, with the Barlow and Hearst duo bound to run rampant, the question is if Cleveland’s offense will ever hit the field. I believe the Browns are heading for a free fall and losing confidence by the minute. When you get run over like they did last week, and get on a plane to head across the country, it is very difficult to rebound. They won’t, and I look for San Francisco to get up early and coast home: San Francisco 28, Cleveland 16

Buffalo (2-0) @ Miami (1-1) pick MIA –3/over 40

Everyone had these teams fighting atop the division, but most expected this to be a meeting of unbeaten teams. The Bills will stick around Florida after their successful trip to Jacksonville last week, a rousing 38-17 win. The Dolphins will return home to the fans they disappointed in the opening weekend with a 21-20 loss to Houston. They did coast past the hurting Jets 21-10 last week to get back on track, but this is the real test. Bledsoe has to be licking his chops after seeing that old man Testaverde was able to throw for 373 yards against this unit. Miami is much better at home, but last year they were swept by the Bills, ultimately costing them a playoff berth. They didn’t have Fiedler in either game though, and they are hoping that Williams can outdo Henry, who was stifled last week against the Jags other than inside the 5 yard line. I have to believe that the Dolphins will be fired up on national television to prove they are in fact one of the best teams in the AFC, while Buffalo might grip a little on the road under the lights: Miami 23, Buffalo 19

Oakland (1-1) @ Denver (2-0) pick DEN –5/under 45

It was a good thing that the Raiders were blacked out because if their game had been televised on local television riots might have broken out. They were that bad, albeit in a winning effort. The key here is that the weak opponent, Cincinnati, is the same group that this Denver team pummeled 30-10 in the opening game. Even without quarterback play, the Broncos have put up 67 points thus far and as bad as Oakland’s secondary looked this past week they might put together a complete game. The Raiders offense is awful in both aspects. They got better than half of their rushing yards on 2 plays, and even with 28 passes thrown Gannon only had 103 passing yards. This was against the Bengals, not the Bucs mind you. There have been a lot of epic battles between these teams, but with the Raiders possessing no receiver to stretch the field and the Broncos having too many weapons for their depleted secondary, I can’t see this being close: Denver 30, Oakland 14