Last week I rolled the dice and threw 7’s. After a mediocre week 5 I threw caution to the wind and picked almost half of the underdogs to come through. What resulted was a 7-7 mark straight up (58-30 overall) against the spread (45-41-2 overall) and on the over/under (53-34-1 overall). I guess the odds makers were right, they went 11-3 straight up (60-25-3 overall) and 10-4 against the number (49-34-5 overall) to nose ahead of me. The under games won out 8-6, leaving them ahead 45-42 on the season with 1 wash.

Of my many regrets, I don’t look back on picking the Raiders. If the lead official had guts he would have overruled his line judge on the Rice catch, and quite possibly they win that game 14-13 two or three plays later. I’m astounded at how Parcells has been able to steal victory after victory in Dallas, even against teams with clearly more talent. Heck, I knew Green Bay vs. Kansas City would be a shootout, and at 31-14 I was feeling good about my 31-27 pick. Same goes for Indianapolis blowing a lead against Carolina. The Giants are having offensive line blues I guess, and I’m still confused as to how New England’s reserve defenders are able to stop teams. I didn’t like the penalty on the winning drive for Denver, and I’m starting to think that I’ve got the curse of the zebras because they keep costing me wins. All of that overshadowed by big pick out of nowhere, which was Jets over Bills. This week I’ll take 4 more underdogs this week, all straight up winners, and for an 8-6 edge for “under”.

New Orleans (2-4) @ Atlanta (1-5) pick NO –1.5/over 41

The Falcons have given up on the season, and if they can upset the Saints in this one they’ll bring them into the same sinking boat. What looked in July like a meeting of teams again battling for spots in the playoffs with dueling cousins Vick and Brooks has turned into an ugly struggle to avoid last place. The Saints have lost a lot of players on defense, but the problem has been their once explosive offense, which has bested 21 points only once this season. The question here is whether or not raw starter Kurt Kittner can expose their defense, or if the Saints will treat the Atlanta defense the way the Rams did this past Monday night. I say no, and almost. New Orleans will move the ball consistently because they have threats running and passing the ball. Atlanta can do some damage on the ground, but when they get into clutch situations needing a big pass they can’t expect Kittner to be poised when leading an exhausted, deflated offense. Could be an exciting game, but I think New Orleans still believes they have a chance to fight for a wild card so they’ll slice out the win: New Orleans 30, Atlanta 20

Philadelphia (2-3) @ NY Giants (2-3) pick PHI +3/under 37.5

Someone forgot to tell these teams that the Redskins and Cowboys would be good this season. Like the aforementioned Saints-Falcons meeting, this was another game that looked like a big one before both struggled mightily early on. Philly’s stranglehold on the G-Men is over, and now they have to realize the urgency surrounding this game. A loss puts them firmly in last place, and even with the Jets and Falcons on deck at best they’d be looking at a 4-4 first half. The Giants also have that set of opponents upcoming after a visit to undefeated Minnesota, meaning they’ll be looking at a similar record if they lose. At that point, they’ll meet again at whatever they call Philly’s new stadium hoping to still be alive. These rivalry games always come down to who wants it more and needs it more. To say this game will be a battle is an understatement. I think the Eagles can get penetration against the beleaguered Giants line, and their bevy of running backs can produce enough big plays to sustain drives even if McNabb can’t deliver big plays down the field due to lack of capable receivers. A field goal kicking contest goes to Akers: Philadelphia 15, NY Giants 12

Denver (5-1) @ Minnesota (5-0) pick MIN –3.5/over 44

This one could have been Plummer vs. Frerotte and the Broncos might have had a fighting chance. With Beuerlein vs. Culpepper it sure doesn’t look good. I’m not saying the veteran Beuerlein will be intimidated by the hostile environment, but it is obvious that the offense is tempered when he is on the field. They appear to be fighting just to nose out a win, and that’s not what you need against a team that will strike early and often on offense. Portis will certainly get his share of yards, and be counted on to keep Culpepper on the sidelines, but there will be plenty of chances for him to burn the Broncos deep: Minnesota 28, Denver 17

San Diego (0-5) @ Cleveland (3-3) pick SD +5.5/over 41

After beating two of last year’s best AFC teams, you just get this gut feeling that the neurotic Browns are ready to lay an egg against the rested and desperate Chargers. The visitors will be trying to avoid going to MNF as an 0-6 team, and with a powerful running game they certainly have a shot. Cleveland looked pretty bad against Oakland actually, mostly taking advantage of a team playing with a second string offensive line, and not really doing much against a defense that has been beaten by almost every team they’ve faced. Funny things happen when you rest for two weeks and prepare for a team, which is why I picked the winless Jets to rise up last week. I’m at it again, as Tomlinson rambles wild: San Diego 24, Cleveland 21

Baltimore (3-2) @ Cincinnati (1-4) pick BAL –2/under 36.5

Has anyone noticed that rookie Kyle Boller has a 48.9 quarterback rating? That’s not good, and neither is the fact that he has only 2 touchdown passes against 6 interceptions. On the other side, if anyone knows how to attack the Ravens defense it would be the man who constructed it, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis. Talent has to kick in, however, and just picking the right spots to attack the Bengals still must execute. The fact of the matter is that since laying a week 1 egg Cincinnati has been very competitive, losing all 3 times by a touchdown or less and beating Cleveland. The key might be if Dillon is able to run for Cincinnati because even though he won’t do much, it will be something because if it is his backup you can expect a long day for Kitna dropping back to make a flurry of mistakes with too much pressure on him to get it done. I like Jamal Lewis to carry the load and Boller to measure his passes wisely: Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 13

Dallas (4-1) @ Detroit (1-4) pick DAL –3/under 39

Polar opposite results for a pair of teams that got a new coach this year. For the Lions, it is more of the same, but for the Cowboys it is a resurgent performance. Detroit has simply given up too many points, with no less than 20 in any game and an average of 24.4 per game. That’s too much to give up when you’ve got a young, developing quarterback and you’re missing your feature back. It will be tough for them to get over on the Dallas defense when the suddenly mighty Dallas offense continually drives down the field. It probably won’t be a blowout, but I have to go with the confident visitors because they have developed a winning attitude. Detroit has a pair of meetings with Chicago in the coming weeks, and might gain confidence there. They won’t win this one: Dallas 20, Detroit 14

Green Bay (3-3) @ St. Louis (3-2) pick GB +4/over 49

It has been well documented how little Favre likes domes, and this will his first of 3 trips to them this season. If they are going to be a playoff team, he will have to get over it. I still have visions of his half dozen picks while they were murdered 45-17 here in the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, this will be an offensive battle. As good as St. Louis looked on MNF, remember that it was a beaten down Atlanta team on the other side, not the poised Packers. Eventually, losing Faulk is going to be a big factor for the Rams and I believe this could be the game where it shows. When you look at the opponents for the Rams, you see teams that are 1-3, 2-3, 3-1, 1-4 and 1-3 after you throw out the results of their meetings. That is 8-14 and a good chunk of the wins were from Seattle. They have beaten up on bad teams. Yes, Green Bay also had a stretch where they played a trio of dregs, Detroit, Arizona and Chicago, and even lost one of those games. However, since that ugly loss in the dessert they have exploded on offense for 38, 35 and 34 points. This meeting is all about the ability to put up touchdowns and more or less beat St. Louis at their own game. I think they can do it: Green Bay 30, St. Louis 28

Tennessee (4-2) @ Carolina (5-0) pick TEN +1.5/under 38

I keep waiting for the bubble to burst on the Panthers, but not even their main man Stephen Davis going down didn’t stop them. As much as they say that now they will be a two runner team, don’t expect too much of Foster unless Davis is not 100%. The key factor here might be MVP candidate McNair who is on pace for just shy of 4,300 yards and 30 touchdowns passing the football. Carolina does not possess that kind of home run threat behind Delhomme and his slightly weaker targets. So while you can expect Davis to certainly best tired Eddie George in the rushing department, don’t count out the playmaker McNair. With road games upcoming against losing teams (New Orleans, Houston) I think the Panthers can afford to slip up here: Tennessee 18, Carolina 16

New England (4-2) @ Miami (4-1) pick MIA –5/under 37.5

The AFC East was supposed to be the best division in the AFC, but with Pennington’s injury killing the Jets and the Bills bumbling every other game it hasn’t turned out that way. Beyond that, on opening day the aforementioned Bills were wiping out these Pats 31-0 and the expansion sophomore Texans were smacking these Dolphins 21-20. Hardly the makings of a week 6 showdown for the division lead, but here we are. The running game for the Patriots has started to click, but Brady is still mired in a very mediocre season and has thrown for exactly 3 touchdowns in five outings when you throw out his 3 score day in Philadelphia. Very inconsistent, and if his young injury replacement defenders start to fail that will hurt them. This could be the week. Ricky Williams is a rock, and he will rumble over, around and through those replacements. Fiedler will keep his job another week, but he is pretty much on notice as far as I’m concerned now that Griese is healthy. Not a pretty win, but the Dolphins extend their division lead: Miami 17, New England 9

NY Jets (1-4) @ Houston (2-3) pick NYJ –3/over 37.5

The Jets might be getting nostalgic about last year’s run to the playoffs given the fact that they were also 1-4 and about to be taken over by Pennington, but the situation is much different. That’s because Coles is not around to make big plays. For Houston, their defense can’t stop anyone, having given up 20 points or more every game and over 30 points on average. The Jets have played very different games, averaging 12.5 points for and 13.3 points against, meaning not even their team plus their opponent’s totals up to what Houston is allowing. When you mix a grind it out team with one that has an affinity for big plays for and against it creates an interesting situation. Testaverde has really performed pretty well in place of Pennington, and against a lesser defense you’ll see Martin and Jordan have some success on the ground as well. Carr’s offense is vastly improved from the group that was far and away the worst in the NFL last year, but he’ll barely get a chance while the Jets control the tempo and sustain long drives: NY Jets 24, Houston 20

Chicago (1-4) @ Seattle (4-1) pick SEA –10/under 43

The road has been very comfortable for the Seahawks thus far, thanks to 4 of 6 at home to open and a trip to weak Arizona. This is the end of that comfort, and they can’t afford to stumble. The incoming Bears will play loose under veteran starter Chris Chandler, who is one concussion away from retirement. I think he will ignite more of a passing game, and plug in running back Adrian Peterson might do the same for the running game. Overconfidence is going to be an issue for the Seahawks, and they really let down against the 49ers after building an early 17-0 lead last week. Hopefully they will watch films from Oakland pummeling Chicago and leading 18-3 before collapsing and learn a lesson. Expect Holmgren to get them that tape, and for him to record a win against a team he used to beat regularly while in the NFC Central: Seattle 31, Chicago 10

Washington (3-3) @ Buffalo (3-3) pick BUF –2.5/under 39.5

Both clubs have shown signs of contending, and both have shown severe weakness. What is surprising about the Redskins is that their success can’t really be attributed to their offense, which has won while scoring 16 and 20 points this season. They did fire it up for a 33-31 win in Atlanta, but it took an onside kick and late fourth quarter run to score 21 and 25 in losses to the Giants and Eagles respectively. Buffalo can relate to offensive woes after losing Price to free agency, Moulds to injury and Henry being slowed by injury. The honeymoon might be over for Bledsoe, who needs to start stepping up and now has to deal with Bailey and Smoot with inexperience Reed and veteran possession receiver Shaw running routes against them. The defenses are probably going to decide this game even though most might think this will be an offensive war. I like the running of Henry and the experience of Bledsoe to make a few key plays that turn the game: Buffalo 16, Washington 13

Tampa Bay (3-2) @ San Francisco (2-4) pick TB –3/under 39

Here’s another pair of 2002 playoff teams that have managed uneven starts. The difference is that the Bucs are playing well and losing to good teams while the 49ers are showing signs of melting down. The thought of the Tampa Bay defensive line taking on a beaten up San Francisco offensive line is an ugly proposition. In last year’s playoffs it was a wipeout 31-6 Tampa Bay win, and I see no reason this won’t be a similar result given the fact that Garcia will be harassed all day. The only chance San Francisco has is on defense, but the Bucs are so precise in their execution that I don’t see it happening: Tampa Bay 26, San Francisco 10

Oakland (2-4) @ Kansas City (6-0) pick KC –3.5/over 47

The last time a 6-0 team came into the Coliseum, it was the Denver Broncos en route to their first of two Super Bowl titles against a similarly 2-4 Oakland club. Result? A 28-25 victory for the home team. I think history has a chance to repeat itself, mostly because the Chiefs have got to run out of luck sooner or later while the Raiders are bound to stumble onto some good fortune after some horrible breaks thus far. As scary as Priest Holmes can be, you have to wonder how the Raiders will stop him when they couldn’t stop Anthony Thomas. To make matters worse, Oakland will employ a patchwork offensive line, making it harder for aging receivers Brown and Rice to get open. Something tells me they will make it close, but I’m tired of blowing picks by taking them: Kansas City 28, Oakland 20