I don’t even want to talk about last week, other than to give the dismal results. I managed to go 10-6 straight up (103-57 overall) but in a week of big favorites I struggled to a putrid 5-11 week (79-77-4 overall) to dive towards a .500 record. The ray of light is that I continue to dominate the over/under with a 12-2-2 mark (98-57-5 overall). The odds makers were 12-4 picking winners (104-53-3 overall) and 7-9 against the number (83-70-7 overall). There were an even 7 games going over and under with 2 pushing, to leave under games ahead 79-76 with 5 pushes.

This week is a statement about the sad state of the current NFL. In a full slate of 16 games there is only one meeting of teams who both have a winning record. If you can believe it, the game is between Carolina and Dallas. The biggest games of the week might be division leaders Seattle and Baltimore hooking up, or San Francisco and Green Bay fighting for an NFC wild card. Stunningly, the MNF game featuring two 2002 playoff teams is a battle for survival between the 4-6 Bucs and Giants. So without any further ado, here are my picks with the pressure of coming off a dismal showing firmly in place.

Detroit (3-7) @ Minnesota (6-4) pick MIN –10.5/under 47

If ever there was a team that could come into the Metrodome and snap the Vikes out of their four game slide, it would be the Lions. They have lost 21 consecutive roadies, and have already dropped a 23-13 decision to these guys on their home field. This one won’t be that close. Daunte was a turnover machine last week in Oakland or they clearly would have won that game. Charles Woodson clamped down Randy Moss, and unfortunately no one from the Lions has his skills. Moss will break loose and the offense will follow suit. They will pass their way to an early lead and run their way to a blowout win: Minnesota 31, Detroit 14

New England (8-2) @ Houston (4-6) pick HOU +5.5/under 37

The bad news for the Patriots is that they have such poor receivers that they found it necessary to sign J.J. Sucks, err Stokes. The good news is that their defense can straight up ball and the momentum and confidence is oozing after their dominating ESPN win over Dallas. Houston has found a way to beat a pair of good teams in Miami and Carolina, a pair of teams with similarly good defenses but also with a solid feature back that New England does not have. That being said, how effective is Tony Banks going to be against a Belichick game plan? In 6 of 10 games this year the Texans have failed to score over 17 points. In this one that will translate into a lack of solid field position and a slew of field goals and scoring chances for New England. Too many opportunities will eventually spell their undoing: New England 16, Houston 13

San Francisco (5-5) @ Green Bay (5-5) pick GB –4.5/under 42

With everything else in the toilet, at least this is still a big game. The 49ers are not going to win the NFC West, but this would give them a leg up if they are thinking of a wild card. Green Bay has clawed back into the NFC North race thanks to Minnesota’s swoon, but a loss here would render all their hard work wasted. Surprisingly, the Packers haven’t defended their home field, going just 2-3 although all of the losses have been to teams currently leading their division and all were decided by 6 points or less. San Francisco, historically a strong road team, has gone 0-4 on the road, dropping a trio of heartbreakers by a total of 7 points. The question here is if Rattay can take his show on the road after leading his team two a pair of home wins and 30 points scored in each. The answer is no, and you’ll probably see Garcia shuffle in to take some abuse. Ultimately, you’re going to see some serious November home field advantage for the Pack who will smash the ball right at San Francisco and dominate this game: Green Bay 27, San Francisco 13

Seattle (7-3) @ Baltimore (5-5) pick SEA +2.5/under 36.5

I keep waiting for the Seahawks to deliver a big road win, but I’m not sure this will be it. Even with Baltimore offensively challenged, they almost got over on Miami last week and that was on the road. On their home field they have been very good, allowing no team over 17 points while going 3-1 with the only loss coming to Kansas City thanks to a special teams return by Dante Hall. Yes, they are sliding and have been forced to turn to Anthony Wright at quarterback, but that defense can make all of that a moot point. I’m not ready to take Seattle on the road until they show me they can deliver the goods. I like Jamal Lewis to take over this game and give his team an ugly win: Baltimore 16, Seattle 14

Carolina (8-2) @ Dallas (7-3) pick CAR +3/under 33

The Panthers have skated by all season, with their only win by over 6 points coming against the hapless Falcons. More than that, they have won 6 times by a field goal or less. I’m sorry, but that’s a lot of luck. The Cowboys have had their share as well, winning 4 times by one touchdown or less and they have been shut out twice already. You’re going to see a ton of defense here, and a lot of running. Stephen Davis is a better runner than Hambrick or recently resurrected Murrell, but the passing edge goes to Carter’s Cowboys who have more downfield threats. That should be the difference that gives this crucial game to Dallas, who will have to turn around a few days later and host Miami on Thanksgiving. In a quick span they could easily be 7-5 and facing three of their final four on the road. Expect Parcells to inform them of this prior to kickoff: Dallas 14, Carolina 12

Pittsburgh (3-7) @ Cleveland (4-6) pick CLE –3/over 40.5

The 2002 playoffs weren’t that long ago, and I keep waiting for both of these teams to wake up and regain their playoff form. Pittsburgh has fallen away from the running game, and their passing game hasn’t been able to sustain them consistently. Offensively they have already put up 6 weak efforts where they have scored 17 points or less, including a 33-13 thumping at the hands of these Browns at Heinz Field. Likewise, Cleveland also has 6 outputs of 14 points or less, although four came consecutively at the start of the season. Throwing out a 9-3 loss in New England, they have recently put up 84 points in 3 games and shellacked Arizona 44-6 last week while their passing attack woke up. The trouble in this one might be the absence of William Green who was a big factor in their first win over Pittsburgh. Without the running game they will have a tougher time wiping them out, but at this point the Steelers have shown no signs of life to lead me to believe they are capable of a big road win: Cleveland 26, Pittsburgh 20

New Orleans (5-5) @ Philadelphia (7-3) pick PHI –5.5/under 39

This is a monster game for the Eagles because if they win and the Packers take out the 49ers they can mail in at least a wild card spot. For the Saints, every week is do or die for them as they try to scratch their way to one of those two wild cards. New Orleans has just gone on a 3-1 run through their division, and is coming off a trio of games decided by a field goal. They might be too spent for a trip into frigid Philly. Donovan McNabb has returned to prominence and has the Eagles poised for another run at the NFC title thanks to a 7-1 run following their bye week. Their defense hasn’t given up over 17 points during their 5 game winning streak and their passing game is starting to click. The will and the momentum is on their side, and I don’t feel that New Orleans has the mettle to stay with them: Philadelphia 24, New Orleans 13

Indianapolis (8-2) @ Buffalo (4-6) pick IND –3/under 37.5

This is clearly a trap game for the Colts, who have already been bitten recently by a poor Jacksonville team on the road. Buffalo has been a huge disappointment this season and their tragic offense has put up only 19 points during their current three game slide. That’s a good quarter for Manning’s group that has averaged 29.2 points per game and hasn’t been held under 20 points since the season opener. Now Travis Henry is ailing, and you have to wonder where the offense will come from for the Bills. Edgerrin James had the kind of game last week that showed he might be all the way back after his knee surgery two seasons ago, and if Marvin Harrison can get back on the field this might be a rout. The only thing is that Buffalo does play good defense at home, having given up only 35 points during their last three home games, and we saw what happened to Indy in the cold during last year’s playoffs. That makes it close, but Manning is on a mission: Indianapolis 20, Buffalo 16

Jacksonville (2-8) @ NY Jets (3-7) pick NYJ –4/over 42.5

This one is for pride and features a pair of quarterbacks who will be stars in this league for many years to come. Byron Leftwich has been taking his lumps but gaining invaluable experience in the process. Now he has a viable second receiver in the form of Cleveland castoff Kevin Johnson to go along with star Jimmy Smith. This offense could give the Jets serious problems, especially with Taylor running them over. On the other side, Pennington has been a big spark for his club and they have scored 28, 27 and 31 points in games he has played. Unfortunately, the defense has allowed 31, 24 and 38 in those games. This one has the potential for offensive fireworks, but I like the experience and home field advantage for the men in green to carry them: NY Jets 31, Jacksonville 16

Chicago (3-7) @ Denver (6-4) pick DEN –10.5/under 40.5

The Bears have been a much better team since Chris Chandler took over, and since their 0-3 start they have yet to lose a game by over a touchdown. However, they are still 0-5 on the road and are facing a revitalized Denver team that is ready to make a playoff run. Denver decimated San Diego last week, and is likely to treat the Bears similarly. Now that Plummer is back in the mix their offense can get back to making big plays and taking pressure off their defense. Chicago will still give teams problems down the road this season, but only at Soldier Field. This one won’t be close: Denver 30, Chicago 10

St. Louis (7-3) @ Arizona (3-7) pick STL –8/over 43

The Rams have had an uneasy ride in their road games, losing at the Giants, Seattle and San Francisco while winning in Pittsburgh and last week in Chicago. Now there might be another quarterback controversy as Martz ponders going back to Warner. Mix in the fact that Arizona has already beaten three contenders on their home field and St. Louis better not look past this one. Still, after being lambasted 44-6 in Cleveland you have to think that Arizona is going to put up a listless performance. On the other hand, St. Louis is vying for a division title and realizes that winning on the road is the key to earning home field in the playoffs. They obviously have more talent, it is merely a matter of execution and play calling. That is to say, run Faulk and coast to a win. Here’s saying that Martz gets the message: St. Louis 27, Arizona 17

Tennessee (8-2) @ Atlanta (2-8) pick TEN –6.5/over 44

Last week it looked like the Falcons would finally win at home, but they dropped to 0-5 after blowing a 20-3 lead against New Orleans, a team that just thumped them 45-17 a few weeks back. They may have to wait until the finale against Jacksonville to register a home win because the Titans are not the type of team that will lose focus. Sure, they were lackluster last week against those Jags in an ugly 10-3 home win that snapped their 30 points scored string at 6, but it was still their fifth straight win and their defense is starting to step up. Kurt Kittner isn’t ready for these guys and Steve McNair is having an MVP season. That’s really all there is to say about this game although the home field and an edge in the running game might help the Falcons stick around for a while: Tennessee 28, Atlanta 17

Oakland (3-7) @ Kansas City (9-1) pick KC –6.5/under 45.5

The Raiders come in with an 0-5 record on the road and will try to send the Chiefs to their first home loss, making this game seem like a wipeout in the making. Mix in their steroid controversy and third string quarterback and the outlook is pretty bleak. However, the Raiders have started running the ball very well and certainly the Chiefs are susceptible in that regard. The first meeting was an ugly 17-10 Kansas City win that sent Rich Gannon to the sidelines for the season, but that was in Oakland. At Arrowhead Stadium the Raiders have been known to melt down, and if they allow an early score or two this could be a big time rout. I think they will do a little running and play keep away to stay in the ballgame. In the end, the team with something on the line is still going to win: Kansas City 26, Oakland 17

Cincinnati (5-5) @ San Diego (2-8) pick CIN –3/over 43

Because they have sucked for years, the Bengals got stuck with a three game road trip late in the season starting now. Worse yet, it closes with a pivotal meeting with Baltimore who they are tied with atop the AFC North. So at this point they are faced with the unusual prospect of being expected to win a road game against a lesser opponent. After all they have gone 5-2 since their 0-3 start and have beaten three first place teams. It hasn’t been pretty though, with their largest margin of victory being 8 points. San Diego has been extremely high and low the past two weeks, shooting down NFC North leading Minnesota 42-28 before getting embarrassed 37-8 at Denver last week. You can expect them to commit to the running game behind Tomlinson this week and hope that their defense can hold down Rudi Johnson and force Kitna into throwing interceptions. This one will not be easy, but I think the Bengals finally feel some respect and want to keep it going: Cincinnati 24, San Diego 20

Washington (4-6) @ Miami (6-4) pick MIA –6.5/under 35

These teams have both underachieved as far as I’m concerned. The Redskins have stumbled to four losses on the road since winning their first over Atlanta 33-31 in week 2. Three of those were by a touchdown or less and already 6 of their games have come down to a field goal or less. This is their fourth game in a row against contending teams, and I think they are worn out. The bye week might have revitalized them, but their energy level has to be low as they travel for the third time this month. Miami has also done some staggering, barely getting by Baltimore last week after losing to Tennessee and Indianapolis the previous two weeks. Brian Griese hasn’t been the quarterback that most of us thought he would be, and it might be time to get Fiedler back in there. Either that or start running Ricky Williams 50 times a game. Right now, their defense has to turn it up a notch and Spurrier’s return to Florida won’t be a victorious one: Miami 20, Washington 10

NY Giants (4-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-6) pick NYG +5.5/under 37.5

This is ostensibly a November playoff game because the loser is all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Even the winner will have plenty of work to do if they want to get back into the hunt. The Bucs are floundering, having lost three in a row, albeit by a touchdown or less and are a scary 1-4 at home. Now they have ditched Keyshawn Johnson and for a team that has put up 16 points or less in four of their past five games that can’t help. Still, the Giants are having their own problems, having been tagged by pathetic Atlanta 27-7 on their home field and then last week being clocked 28-10 in Philadelphia. Their offense has been held to 10 or less points in five or their past seven games. They have also lost offensive spark Jeremy Shockey. I still feel like dropping Key will crystallize this team and unite them. This is not a club that wins with offense anyway: Tampa Bay 16, NY Giants 13