With all of the parity, and the crappy pairings of teams we have had to endure lately this week should be a fine alternative. You see, 12 of the 14 teams that have winning records will be up against one another this week. Unfortunately, the two that aren’t will be playing losers in the nationally televised games on ESPN and MNF. About the only interest there is whether Atlanta will register their first home win over reeling Carolina, or if St. Louis can shake their outdoor blues in Cleveland. In total, of the 16 games being played, 13 will be between teams who are within 2 wins of one another with the aforementioned meetings obviously being two of the exceptions. The other exception should still be a great one, Kansas City at Denver. Mix it all up and we should see plenty of excitement this week. The only negative is that 6 of the teams going on the road have 1 or fewer wins away from home and of course the home Falcons are winless in front of their fans. Tampa Bay (5-7) @ New Orleans (6-6) pick NO –1.5/under 40.5

What has happened to the Bucs? Mostly, their lack of a running game has killed their chances to put teams away. This is a club that has gone 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Sorry Chucky, that’s coaching. It’s also knowing that you have to run the damn football to win in this league. They are a shade under 100 yards rushing per game on a mere 25.75 carries per contest. Their “feature” back is on pace for only 229 carries and 928 yards. He hasn’t scored a single touchdown, and the team has only 4 on the ground with Alstott (now on IR) having two of those. Their defense has put them into position 8 times by giving up 17 or less points, but they are only 5-3 when they do. One of those was against these Saints, a 17-14 loss on their home field and their third loss in a row to their new division rival. New Orleans has had a tough time getting their offense together with Brooks averaging just 206 yards passing per game. Fortunately they have Mr. Century rushing McAllister on pace for 1,857 yards rushing. Their defense has been pretty soft as well, giving up 23.2 points on average although a 55 spot against Indianapolis hurt that average. Nevertheless, they let teams score and I can see this game going into the twenties on both sides. Tampa Bay swears they won’t fold down the stretch, but seeing is believing and I’m not seeing it: New Orleans 23, Tampa Bay 17

Seattle (8-4) @ Minnesota (7-5) pick MIN –1/over 51.5

The Seahawks haven’t won outside the Pacific time zone this season, and the Vikings are on a 1-5 slide where they have given up 28 points or more during the five losses. If there is good news for Seattle, it’s that only once have they been held under 20 points and their offense has hit for 35, 41 and 34 over the last three weeks. They’ll be able to match scores, and this one could easily turn into a back and forth affair. Each team has the ability to grind it out in the running game, and each has the weapons to air it out. I think what this boils down to is that even though I believe Seattle has more weapons, their road woes can’t be ignored. Neither can the effect that a dome can have on your offense whether it is false starts or not being able to audible with ease. Daunte has been good for 1.4 turnovers per game, and sooner or later he is going to have a game where the holds the ball. I think this is it: Minnesota 30, Seattle 27

Cincinnati (7-5) @ Baltimore (7-5) pick BAL –3.5/under 40

Many season the Bengals would get 3 wins total. This year, they are 3-3 on the road for crying out loud. They also have to deal with a third consecutive road game, something that bad teams tend to get stuck with. This is a club that opened with a dismal 30-10 home loss to Denver, but has been competitive in every game since. In fact, their past 11 games have all boiled down to 8 points or less, including their 34-26 win over these Ravens. Now they deal with a team that is suddenly #7 in the NFL with 300 points scored following a pair of 44 point games. They also take on a team that knows how to win with a winning attitude on their home field. I’m not sure Cincinnati has what it takes to beat a good team on the road. The teams they have taken down have a combined 10-22 record. I like the confidence of Anthony Wright and the opportunistic Ravens defense to be the difference: Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 13

Indianapolis (9-3) @ Tennessee (9-3) pick IND +4/under 46

Both teams come off gut wrenching losses, although the Titans have to be feeling worse after losing to a Jets team with no playoff aspirations. One thing this game figures to have is points, as the #3 and #5 scoring offenses go at it. Last time around it was all Colts 33-7, stifling an offense that would go on to post 27 points or more in their next seven games in a row. This time I think Tennessee will look to run the ball and control the tempo, relying on their defense to make the big plays. Both clubs have been known to give up plenty of points, and the question is whether you like McNair’s grit or Manning’s pure talent? I think the Colts have what it takes to win this game, but they have struggled to put team’s away lately and if they let Tennessee hang around they are going to lose: Tennessee 23, Indianapolis 20

Houston (5-7) @ Jacksonville (3-9) pick HOU +6/under 38.5

With the Colts and Titans in their division, Houston has been nowhere on the radar this season, but they have put together an improving team and have won 3 of 5. Jacksonville has struggled on offense most of the season, but their defense has stepped up the past 3 weeks allowing a total of just 33 points. If Leftwich can continue to hit the mark downfield to Jimmy Smith and newcomer Kevin Johnson starts to make an impact they will have something to build on for next season. Right now they want to avoid their tenth loss, and I believe they will mostly because their defense has plenty to stop the Houston attack. Davis will give the Texans a lift on the ground, but Fred Taylor is going to ramble for a lot more: Jacksonville 19, Houston 14

Chicago (5-7) @ Green Bay (6-6) pick GB –7/under 39

As badly as the Bears have looked at times this season, and as good as the Packers have looked on selective occasions is it not shocking that a Chicago win would leave them with identical records? That’s because the Bears have gone on a 4-2 run, with the losses by just two points each. The shuffling between Stewart and Chandler at quarterback hasn’t even affected them. Heck, they started Brock Forsey at tailback and he picked up 134 yards rushing last week. Let’s be realistic though. This is Wisconsin in December and does anyone really expect the Packers to lay an egg here? With all AFC West teams remaining on the schedule, they are staring at a possible 10-6 finish if they can sweep a trip to California against the Raiders and Chargers, then beat the Broncos at home. That might be enough to help them catch Seattle for the second wild card: Green Bay 27, Chicago 9

San Diego (2-10) @ Detroit (4-8) pick DET –3/over 43.5

The Lions can forget about their atrocious road losing streak, they have this one at Ford Field where they have won three in a row. The Chargers have been mostly poor on the road, and most recently have been handled comfortably in Denver (37-8) and Chicago (20-7). They will be looking for a big game from Tomlinson, and clearly should be starting Drew Brees at this point unless they never want him to be their starter again. I believe San Diego has enough to win this game, but something tells me the Lions have more desire. Sure, they’ll finish 5-11 but I think they will find a way to get over here: Detroit 24, San Diego 20

Oakland (3-9) @ Pittsburgh (4-8) pick PIT –4.5/under 40.5

This should have been last year’s AFC Championship game, and this year it is a meeting of hugely disappointing teams playing out the string. The Raiders have a coach who calls them dumb and an 0-6 record on the road. Four of those losses have been by less than a touchdown, and before this week’s “dumb” incident had been playing pretty well. Pittsburgh actually had a chance to spring themselves back into the AFC North race last week before short kickoff and devastatingly quick four play touchdown drive doomed them against Cincinnati. I don’t think the Steelers want to have a losing home record, and with San Diego due in two weeks they have a 4-4 mark in their sights. Maddox has the passing game going and the Oakland secondary is in shambles right now. They simply don’t have the manpower to stay with them. To make it worse, Pittsburgh will stifle their running game: Pittsburgh 24, Oakland 10

Dallas (8-4) @ Philadelphia (9-3) pick PHI –5/under 36.5

It has been a great run for the Cowboys, but now they have a difficult task winning a chilly road game against the hottest team in the NFC. The last time these Eagles lost was 23-21 to these Cowboys, their only post bye week defeat. More impressively is that they have started to beat teams down, with an average margin of victory at 13.3 over their last three games. I think Dallas might be rattled after being embarrassed on Thanksgiving Day, and even the extra days of rest will not be enough to get them back on track. A loss will relegate them to wild card status so you can expect them to lay it all on the line. I can’t bet against McNabb until he shows some sort of weakness. Lately he has been nearly flawless, with last week’s single interception breaking his string of 4 straight games without a turnover: Philadelphia 16, Dallas 10

Washington (4-8) @ NY Giants (4-8) pick NYG –2.5/under 37.5

The strangest part about this game is that it pits a team that is 1-5 on the road against one that is 1-5 at home. New York has blown the most favorable schedule I’ve ever seen in terms of travel, or lack thereof. They never recovered from their stunning 35-32 overtime loss to Dallas and have now lost four in a row after already enduring a three game losing streak earlier this year. The Redskins have had similar struggles, and during their 1-7 string they have lost four in a row and have a current three game losing streak. I don’t think Tim Hasselbeck has what it takes to execute Steve Spurrier’s offense, and this is a team that lacks consistency and leadership in a big way. They have already lost five games by four points or less, including a 24-21 defeat against these Giants. I think Fassel is going to lay it out for his team that a loss in this game will cost him his job. With three tough games ahead, nothing will save his job but they will win this game: NY Giants 22, Washington 14

Arizona (3-9) @ San Francisco (5-7) pick AZ +10/over 41

The Cards are one of five teams that sport 0-6 road records, including these 49ers, but they have been blown away by an average of 22.5 points and their closest loss was 28-15 in Pittsburgh. San Francisco has won 4 in a row on their home field and is a team that plays with a lot of pride. They won’t throw in the towel and Jeff Garcia will have a much better showing this week. Something tells me that the Cards will finally be respectable on the road behind their flashy rookie wide receiver, but in a pointless game they will lose again. The worse news is that their final shot at a road game comes in Seattle, a team that beat them 38-0 at home: San Francisco 26, Arizona 17

Miami (8-4) @ New England (10-2) pick NE –3/under 37

The Dolphins have been absolute road warriors this season with their 5-1 mark blemished only by a 31-7 beating they took in Tennessee. Last week they finally beat a good team on the road, but even the extra rest won’t help them acclimate to cold weather. It’s really as simple as that, this club stinks when the thermometer dips. New England has been astounding after their pathetic 31-0 opening day loss in Buffalo, turning away all but Redskins who beat them 20-17 when their fourth and 3 effort failed. They have beaten the Titans, won in Denver and last week took down the Colts on the road. No word on how long their smoke and mirrors show will last, but you can’t bet against them until you see evidence that it will. Their defense has allowed only 3 field goals total in their last three home games, and as much of a lift as Fiedler has been to the Miami offense it won’t matter here. Sure, it will be an epic game, but in the end Vinatieri is once again going to put the finishing touches on it: New England 20, Miami 16

Kansas City (11-1) @ Denver (7-5) pick KC +3/over 45.5

Everyone is ready to hand this game to the Broncos just because they are at home, but Denver hasn’t exactly been indomitable on their home field. After thumping Oakland 31-10, they stumbled past a bad Detroit team 20-16, edged a similarly poor Pittsburgh team 17-14, lost to New England 30-26, crunched hapless San Diego 37-8 and most recently were embarrassed by Chicago 19-10. Yes, the Chiefs have beaten only one team with a winning record, but this was that team. They would love to clinch the AFC West crown on Denver’s field, and I think they are going to do it. Priest Holmes is a yardage machine, and their bend but don’t break defense always delivers the key stop when push comes to shove: Kansas City 27, Denver 24

NY Jets (5-7) @ Buffalo (5-7) pick BUF –3/under 37

Both teams showed their pride with wins at the Meadowlands last week, the Jets as MNF hosts to the red hot Titans and the Bills a day earlier as guests to the struggling Giants. What I know about this one is that the Jets have been pretty good at scoring since Pennington’s return, while the Bills have been hit and miss. Yes, Bledsoe woke up last week with 252 yards in just over a half of football, but he has been mostly awful this season. I think what you’re going to see is a Buffalo team sick of losing at home, and a Jets team that lets up after their emotional win on Monday night. The short week, travel and hostile environment are enough to keep them out of the win column as they face a team hell bent on revenge for a 30-3 thumping earlier this year: Buffalo 20, NY Jets 16

Carolina (8-4) @ Atlanta (2-10) pick CAR –1/over 41

The Michael Vick merchandising machine must have informed him that this game is on national television and he needs to play so that people will keep buying his jerseys and remember how special a player he is supposed to be. The team desperately needs him because they are 0-6 at home and fans don’t enjoy a season without witnessing a single victory. They will get a Carolina team that comes in beaten up after tough losses to Dallas and Philadelphia. However, I think the loss of Warrick Dunn as a quick threat out of the backfield and the rust of Vick limits what Atlanta can do on offense. Meanwhile, Stephen Davis is going to bulldoze the Falcons at will, which leads to a rebound win for a team that is ready to win their division and point their attention at home field: Carolina 30, Atlanta 17

St. Louis (9-3) @ Cleveland (4-8) pick STL –4/over 43

Monday Night Football comes back to Cleveland for the first time in a long time. Well, eight years to be exact, when it was the old Browns. This incarnation is looking pretty bad lately, having scored 6 and 7 points respectively the last two weeks as they have suffered through a 1-5 string that has ended their playoff hopes. An amazing 8 times they have been held to 14 points or less, which is bad news with an offense like the Rams have coming in. What this comes down to is that Cleveland is in disarray. Their starting tailback is a doper with a crazy wife. They can’t figure out which quarterback to start. They were throttled last week in Seattle, and generally don’t know which way is up. On the other side, St. Louis is coming off a commanding 48-17 win over NFC North leading Minnesota. Their confidence is brimming and they are looking to even their record outdoors to 2-2 and in the process ensure that they spend the playoffs indoors: St. Louis 31, Cleveland 17