I wonder what Miami and Minnesota are thinking right about now. The poor Dolphins made a 6-2 run to close out the season, but it wasn’t enough. Heck, of their 6 losses, only Houston finished the year with a record below 12-4. As for the Vikings, they can’t feel good about losing 4 times to teams that finished a dismal 4-12. Blowing a 6-0 start has to hurt, although their chances of winning at St. Louis (where they lost 48-17) or Philadelphia (remember their chilly 41-0 loss at New York in the playoffs?) were slim and none. Speaking of prospects, I’m going to give you some odds on teams winning their conferences and winning it all.

Philadelphia (12-4) NFC 2-1 Super Bowl 3-1

Forget about the San Francisco loss, this team is on a serious roll. Losing Westbrook certainly will slow down their offense, which has 7 straight games over 25 points, but McNabb is the reason this club will finally get over the hump. In their finishing run they mowed down 3 playoff teams in a row (Carolina, Dallas, Miami) with a pair of those games coming on the road. They also won in Green Bay, although they did lose early season games in Dallas and home against New England to leave their record 4-2 against playoff teams. The defense isn’t as dominating as it has been, especially at home where 6 of 8 visiting teams have managed to put up 17 points or more and their record is only 5-3. Worse yet, the sting of last year’s resounding 27-10 home loss to Tampa Bay in the NFC title game has to have some residual effect on their confidence. With an emotional and hot Green Bay team slated to come in first, then the potent offense of St. Louis, it won’t be an easy ride. I still like their chances because I don’t think they have played their best football yet and clearly they are the most experienced group in the NFC. Matching them up against the top AFC teams, I think they can contend with any of them. They key man to watch might be Freddie Mitchell at wide receiver. A few big plays out of him might be the big difference.

New England (14-2) AFC: 2-1 Super Bowl 5-1

All these guys have done is knock off playoff teams Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Dallas and Denver while also beating an otherwise 10-4 Miami team twice. That’s 6-0 against solid competition. They also haven’t lost since September and after their 38-30 shootout win over Tennessee on October 5 have yielded a total of 22 points in 6 home games with only one touchdown. That was a garbage score against Jacksonville in a game they led 27-6 with 3:34 to play. Now for the downside, and there is plenty of it. Their two lead running backs have averaged 3.5 and 3.6 yards per carry respectively with just 3 rushing scores, all by Antowain Smith. Their leading receiver, Deion Branch, had only 57 receptions and 803 yards. Their spread it around offense features four players who ranged from 409 to 510 yards receiving, but one was tight end Daniel Graham and another was running back Kevin Faulk. Teams with a shutdown corner are going to find it pretty easy to stop this offense. That being said, they are bracketed for a rematch with Tennessee, who couldn’t stop them the first time. Then it is possible that Kansas City will come knocking, and a team with a dynamic threat such as Priest Holmes has a very good chance to do damage against this defense. If they do escape, it could be yet another rematch, this time of their Super Bowl win over St. Louis or 31-10 victory earlier this season against the Eagles. I don’t like them against either team really because the Rams can look at the tapes and correct their mistakes, while the Eagles are a much better team than earlier this season. Still, it is tough to bet against them riding that home field to Houston.

St. Louis (12-4) NFC 5-1 Super Bowl 6-1

The Rams had the conference title wrapped up until they blew home field at Detroit. Now they are staring at the prospect of traveling to Philadelphia for a dreaded outdoor game with the Eagles. The club is only 4-3 on the road this season, including a 30-10 drubbing in San Francisco, and a pair of narrow wins in Chicago (23-21) and Arizona (30-27) against under .500 teams. They also played a soft schedule where they met just 4 playoff teams, going 3-1 in those games including home wins over Seattle and Green Bay who are two of their possible three opening opponents. The key for them is quarterback Marc Bulger who is new to this playoff stuff and threw a lot of interceptions (22) this season. He’s also banged up after being knocked out of the finale, as is starting wide receiver Isaac Bruce. With a Dallas upset, they could be hosting the Packers led by Favre, who they picked off 6 times the last time they met in the playoffs and who historically struggles mightily in domes. I think they win against any team that comes into Edward Jones Stadium, but unless the seeds hold form in the opening round and Green Bay stuns Philly on the road, they are not going to make the Super Bowl. Of course, if they did they have enough offense to hang with any of the AFC clubs and after all this is an odd year. The last two odd years (1999, 2001) they have been to the big game.

Kansas City (13-3) AFC 4-1 Super Bowl 7-1

Is it just me or has everyone forgotten about the Chiefs? That probably plays to their advantage. Their weakness against the run has everyone kicking them right out of the playoffs, but don’t forget that the Titans and Patriots don’t exactly have Jim Brown running the football. The bigger knock that I have is that these guys were dismal against good teams. Early on they beat Baltimore, Denver and Green Bay but by a touchdown or less in each case with a 1 point win and overtime game mixed in. They lost to Denver in their only other game against a playoff team, and were pummeled at Minnesota in their only other game against a winning club. They also lost 24-19 in Cincinnati, leaving them 3-3 against teams who finished 8-8 or better. Conventional wisdom says that a team giving up 24 points in five of their final seven games isn’t ready for a playoff run. Making matters worse, they are bracketed to meet Peyton Manning and the Colts, who certainly can match scores and do have a capable runner in the form of Edgerrin James. Many folks have the Broncos upsetting Indy, which would send the Titans/Ravens winner to Arrowhead. If it is Baltimore, here comes Jamal Lewis 40 times down their throat, and if it is Tennessee look out for McNair throwing darts all over the field. Any way that you slice it, they are a soft 13-3 club that has potential to make a run but has yet to really have an eye opening win to make me believe that they will. In a Super Bowl setting, I wouldn’t bet against them simply because Priest Holmes is ready to take over a big game.

Indianapolis (12-4) AFC 7-1 Super Bowl 8-1

I think the time has come for the Colts to step up in the playoffs. For a team that can turn up the volume on offense as good as anyone (29+ points in half of their games) they can certainly put the pressure on any team they face. They are a mediocre 2-3 against playoff teams, including a 31-17 loss to these Broncos on their home field, but I think that loss will allow them a road map to correct their mistakes and beat Denver this time around. The catalyst for them is Edgerrin James, who wasn’t involved nearly enough in the first contest (10 rushes, 42 yards) and who is averaging 119.5 yards per game in his last six discounting that one. They will get him involved early on and keep it that way. They also have plenty of complementary weapons to Marvin Harrison in the passing game with Reggie Wayne emerging and Troy Walters making plays. A win would send them to Kansas City where they would be looking to repeat history because their last playoff trip there was a victory over a similarly 13-3 Chiefs team. Certainly they could win that game if they were able to take the crowd out and stiffen up their defense. However, it would be very difficult for them to turn around and win the following week in New England. They were 6-1 outdoors on the road this season, but none of those games were in cold weather, where they were blasted 41-0 by the Jets last season. Of course, if they do make the miracle run, don’t bet against them in the big one.

Green Bay (10-6) NFC 7-1 Super Bowl 10-1

Does Favre have one more magical run in him? I think he has a shot, but his team is only 1-3 against playoff competition when you discount their 31-3 win over Denver’s backups last week. The good news is that the win came against their first round opponent, Seattle, by a 35-13 score. The chances are good that they will repeat that margin of victory over a road troubled Seahawks team, and that would leave them going to either St. Louis or Philadelphia in the divisional round. Either way, they will likely have to win at both stadiums to make it to the Super Bowl because the Carolina/Dallas winner is going nowhere. The key for them is that their offense is rolling at the right time. They have posted 30+ points in their last four games, and overall have scored that much in 9 of 16 games. That will be critical in a rematch with St. Louis, who beat them 34-24 in October. The good news in that game was that Favre wasn’t dismal in the dome, completing 71.9% of his passes with just 1 interception and 2 touchdown throws. They also lost to the Eagles, but it was 17-14 on a last minute McNabb touchdown throw in a tightly contested game. The potential is there for this team to return to claim the trophy named after their legendary coach, but after last year’s ugly showing (27-7 loss to Atlanta) I am not ready to predict any sort of run past the first round.

Tennessee (12-4) AFC 8-1 Super Bowl 15-1

Titan fans are hungry for another shot at a title, but they had better realize that their team went just 1-3 against playoff teams this season, 0-3 against the AFC. Their biggest wins were 37-17 at Carolina and 31-7 over Miami, but they won’t be facing either club this post-season. They get a break by drawing Baltimore, who is clearly the worst team in the AFC playoff field and who doesn’t have much of a home field advantage. I think everyone likes them to advance past that game, with many picking them to go to Kansas City next although I believe it will be a return trip to New England where they lost a 38-30 thriller. In either case, they will certainly have more playoff poise than their opponent, coming off a season where they lost in the AFC Championship game. The question is if they are playing well enough to make a quality run. In their last 7 games, they beat dregs like Jacksonville and Atlanta by just a touchdown each, falling behind 21-0 to the Falcons in the process. They needed a miracle score to beat Houston, and were just 28-26 better than Buffalo, whose offense hadn’t scored that many points since week 2. They also lost at the Jets on MNF, and to the Colts on their home field. I think they peaked too early, namely during the preceding string of 7 games where they put up 27 points every week and scored 6 wins by two touchdowns or more. I don’t like the fact that prior to their season ending 33-13 win over hopeless Tampa Bay they gave up 31, 24, 29, 26 and 24 points in their previous five games. They also did it against suspect offenses. I’m not sure they can stop the Chiefs, and if they do make a big run to return to the Super Bowl I am certain they won’t be able to stop the Rams, Eagles or Packers.

Denver (10-6) AFC 12-1 Super Bowl 18-1

I think these guys are a bit overrated. Yes, they delivered a clutch 31-17 win at Indianapolis to qualify for the playoffs and will be facing the same Colts in the opening round. However, they were only 2-4 against playoff competition and defensively haven’t been very sharp lately. Jake Plummer isn’t playoff tested either, with only two games under his belt, seemingly a long, long time ago when he was on the Cardinals. I believe the Colts will put them on their heels early and Denver will not recover. If, as some experts say, they do turn in a repeat performance, it will be a rematch with New England, who beat them 30-26 at Invesco Field on MNF. That would be ugly because the Patriots have turned it up a notch on defense and would stifle them. I don’t know what everyone loves so much about these Broncos, but with Portis on the sidelines I see one and out.

Seattle (10-6) NFC 15-1 Super Bowl 20-1

They didn’t really finish on a roll, and in fact were just 5-5 following their impressive 5-1 start. They did, however, get a big monkey off their back with a 24-17 road win in San Francisco, ending a 6 game road losing streak. Still, they are facing a Packers club that crushed them 35-13 earlier this season and has more talent than the 49ers with a much bigger home field advantage. They’ll need a lot of breaks to beat the Packers, who are playing about as well as you can offensively. Seattle’s defense was torn up by the Vikings (34 points) and Rams (27 points) late in the season and I see no reason Green Bay won’t post similar numbers. If they do pull the upset, they would probably be hoping for a return trip to St. Louis, where they lost a hard fought 27-22 game just a couple weeks ago. I like their odds in that one, although they would never win in Philadelphia. Problem is, they likely won’t make it past the opening round anyway. Better luck next year.

Dallas (10-6) NFC 18-1 Super Bowl 25-1

Parcells turned a team that was 15-33 over the past three seasons and put them back in the playoffs. However, he did it with a schedule that featured just 3 playoff teams (1-2 record) and only one other winning team (Miami, who thumped them 40-21 on their home field). The good news for them is that their defense has really stepped it up on the road. In six of their eight road games they have given up a total of just two touchdowns, although that discounts a 35-32 win at the Giants and a 36-10 demolition in Philadelphia. They have a 24-20 home win over their first round opponent, and a coach who will certainly put them in position to repeat that showing. What they don’t have is the guns to compete with the teams that earned a bye week, Philadelphia and St. Louis.

Baltimore (10-6) AFC 20-1 Super Bowl 30-1

Winning the AFC North is not exactly something to write home about. Neither is being led by Anthony Wright. Yes, they turned in resounding wins over San Francisco (44-6) Cincinnati (31-13) and Cleveland (35-0) down the stretch, but they also looked horrible in losing 20-12 at Oakland and struggled mightily to beat Pittsburgh 13-10 in overtime last week. In all they were 2-2 against playoff teams, although their 44-41 overtime win over Seattle was a sham because the clock operator screwed up. The good news is that aside from that “win” their defense has not allowed over 17 points on their home field, and offensively they have somehow scored 31+ in four of their last six games, with a 5-1 mark down the stretch. A team like Tennessee knows exactly what to expect from them, however, which is a heavy dose of Jamal Lewis. The Titans certainly have the ability to stop them, and it is likely that they will. If they do win, it would earn them a trip to Kansas City, a team that beat them 17-10 back in September, or New England, who would likely shut them out. Any way you cut it, a run for them is about as unlikely as it gets in the AFC.

Carolina (11-5) NFC 25-1 Super Bowl 35-1

This is a team that skated through the season with close wins almost every week. Seven times they won by 3 points or less, and nine times by a touchdown or less. They took over the NFC South when Vick went down and Tampa Bay fell apart. In the final month, when faced with four teams that all finished 4-12, they didn’t exactly dominate either. They lost in Atlanta (20-14) before winning close in Arizona (20-17) and against Detroit (20-14) before disposing of the Giants (37-24) who were at the very least shorthanded. Along the way they went 1-3 against playoff teams, with an 0-3 mark against NFC competition. In retrospect probably their only impressive win was 23-20 in overtime at Indianapolis back in October. Now they are turning to Jake Delhomme and asking him to get it done against a pretty good Dallas defense. The Cowboys beat them 24-20 at Texas Stadium, and it will take a solid running game and no mistakes for the Panthers to turn that result around. More or less, the game is a tossup, but these guys have no chance of going into Philadelphia (who beat them 25-16 on their home field) or St. Louis and winning in the divisional round. It’s just that simple. Great season, building towards next year, but leave it at that.

So what do I see happening? The NFC clearly boils down to the Eagles, Packers and Rams. Home field is going to be crucial, and the bigger factor is how the Dallas vs. Carolina game comes out. If Carolina wins, the door opens for St. Louis who will be hoping Green Bay can pull an upset in Philadelphia and keep them at Edward Jones Stadium for the NFC championship game. If Dallas wins, I don’t like Favre’s ability to win a playoff game in a dome and thus the odds of the Eagles advancing go way up. I will say that Dallas and Green Bay win the opening round, but lose in the divisional round. Philadelphia will prove that the third time really is the charm and beat St. Louis to avenge their 2001 NFC title game defeat.

In the AFC, it is more wide open with the Colts, Chiefs, Patriots and Titans all having a shot. I like Indianapolis and Tennessee to advance, and for Indianapolis and New England to meet in the AFC title game after wins over Kansas City and Tennessee respectively. Based on how difficult it is to win in New England, I’m picking them to take the AFC much like the Giants did in the 2000 season. Then it will be time for revenge as the Eagles turn around a 31-10 loss and beat the Patriots 27-17.