Ya think I'm anxious for the season to roll around? OLD FACES IN NEW PLACES:

RB-Zereoue (OAK): Last year was supposed to be his breakout campaign taking over for Bettis and being well suited to Pittsburgh’s new pass-first offense. In 2002 he averaged 3.94 yards per carry and given the full load of 310 carries that would have translated into 1,223 yards on the ground. In 2003 his average dipped to an Eddie George like 3.28 and the team gave him only 132 rushes. After his first 6 starts produced an average of 13.83 rushes good for just 46.2 yards, his final 10 games saw him carry the rock only 4.90 times for 15.60 yards a contest with a high of 7 carries (twice) in that stretch. I think they gave up on him too early because 3 times early on he had 29, 48 and 57 yards receiving in consecutive games. Those games saw him average 97.3 total yards on just 20.33 touches. Given a full 20-25 carries (his season high was 18) I wonder what this guy could do. He has talent and finished 10th in the Heisman voting as a senior at West Virginia. He’s also young enough (27) to still have a few impact seasons. In that regard the Raiders got some potential by picking him up and losing out on Corey Dillon. Effectively they also received a center of the future (the 2nd round pick they would have had to give up for Dillon). The question now is what his role will be in the offense. Will Norv Turner give him a chance to carry the ball 25 times a game early in the season? He might, and on a team with a revamped offensive line infused with the talent of a star rookie left tackle and Pro Bowl-caliber guard he will have a great chance to succeed. If that happens, Fargas becomes the change of pace back and Wheatley may never see the field after a quietly solid season averaging 4.3 yards per carry and leading the team with 678 yards rushing (with 310 carries would have equaled 1,321 yards). Crockett is the touchdown maker, he had 7 last year for a team that scored only 24 total on offense. He commands your attention with a late round pick and could wind up gaining 1,200-1,400 total yards for the Raiders who seem poised to rebound and be a competitive team in 2004.

RB-Hambrick (OAK): The backfield competition just got a little more wide open in Oakland. I think the only guy with a job and a role might be one-yard plunge specialist and fullback Zack Crockett, while the only other guy with a guaranteed spot on the team is second year runner Justin Fargas. Taking on another guy who failed when handed a starting job is a great idea I think. Put both of them back into the position where they were successful, fighting for playing time. What you wind up with, however, is a situation where none of them have fantasy worthy seasons as they rotate in with 10-12 carries a piece. This is an opportunity for you to closely watch Oakland’s exhibition games and take a late round flier on the top two backs. Then you have to hope that either Hambrick or Zereoue stays on the field in goal line situations where Crockett has excelled.

WR-Johnson (BAL): I’m surprised the Jags let him go, but considering they got him for nothing I guess they figured they would get something while they could. In Baltimore he immediately moves into the starting lineup on a team that failed to produce a wide receiver with better than Travis Taylor’s weak 39 receptions for 632 yards. Tight end Todd Heap led the team with 57 catches good for 693 yards as the Ravens ranked dead last in passing. That could very well change this year if Jamal Lewis doesn’t return to the field due to his legal issues, but I seriously doubt that. At this point you almost have to consider Kevin Johnson their best receiver, but I’m not sure if that means much more than say 800 yards receiving based on what we saw in 2003. Take him late when no one else is looking and if he pans out great. If not, nothing lost, but I think he will fall into six touchdown catches at the very least and certainly could wind up over 1,000 yards receiving if things go right.

RB-Portis (WAS): This one is huge. Yes, he was very productive in Denver but Gibbs is going to run him like mad. We’re talking Ricky Williams mad. I think it is very realistic to expect over 1,700 yards rushing out of him and he’ll need it to compete with the other top backs because he doesn’t get a lot of catches out of the backfield (2.5 receptions per game in his two seasons). The better news is that his TD production won’t drop a bit. After posting 29 scores in as many games as a Bronco, you can look for a high teens number this year as well. I think Denver made a mistake letting this guy go thinking it was their offensive scheme that leads to their success running the ball. He should be off the board in the first three picks of any respectable league and when all is said and done he might unseat Holmes as the top fantasy scorer.

QB-Brunell (WAS): This move is a little on the baffling side. I didn’t think Patrick Ramsey was the problem. It was the lack of protection from the offensive line. However, I guess Gibbs wants a veteran presence back there making smart decisions. It isn’t as if Gibbs doesn’t know how to handle quarterbacks, he is the only guy in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with 3 different starters at the position. Obviously having Portis around will help Brunell out, and he has a pair of good receivers in Coles and Gardner but not a lot of depth and nothing at tight end unless they draft Kellen Winslow. In his prime Brunell was sort of like Troy Aikman, a great winner but not a productive fantasy quarterback. He would throw for 225 yards and a score or two and that’s about it. His running days are long gone as well. When dealing with this move think of it as it relates to the value of Portis and Coles. This way there are two strong quarterbacks to add insurance if one of them goes down with an injury or simply plays poorly. I can’t see Brunell firing for much more than your pedestrian 3,200 yards and 22 scores this season making him a safe player to pick up late as your bye week fill-in.

WR-Owens (PHI): Those who have him as a keeper were relieved when he made it out of Baltimore and joined Philadelphia. His value as a Raven would have certainly dipped. Now he joins an Eagles team whose top three receivers totaled 1,631 yards on 120 catches for just 5 touchdowns. Those are figures that receivers like Moss or Holt could put up solo. Owens joins that group coming off his worst season since 1999 and has seen his receiving yards decline every year since his breakout 2000 campaign where he had 1,451 yards. From 2000-2002 he was a consensus top four receiver in fantasy land with an average of 1,388 yards and 14 touchdowns per season. He’d be lucky to reach that total in Philly although the departure of Deuce Staley and his arrival should lead the team into more passing situations. Last year they were 25th in pass attempts at just 30.3 per game but mysteriously 26th in rushing attempts at 26.1 so go figure. Putting Owens into the mix gives them the option of going four wide and I think Thrash, Pinkston and the underachieving Mitchell have the ability to take a little bit of pressure off of him now that they are in their proper roles. There is no question in my mind that Owens will exceed 1,200 yards and 7 touchdowns but I think his ceiling is probably 1,400 and 10.

QB-Garcia (CLE): This one is going to take some time getting used to. It wasn’t long ago that this guy was in the Pro Bowl and similarly the Browns passing game was prolific with a quartet of decent receivers. I think there will be a lot of pressure on Garcia to perform as the replacement for a guy who was selected #1 overall in the draft and basically run out of town. Morgan, Davis and Northcutt are all borderline #2 receivers who are essentially getting it done by committee. Last year four receivers caught at least 38 passes including the departed Kevin Johnson and the remaining trio all had over 500 yards receiving. Not many teams have that depth and it will give Garcia plenty of choices which lends itself to his mobile style. If he can scramble for those extra precious seconds, one of those guys is going to get open. The next question is who will run the ball for him. They let Jamel White go which was dumb. He averaged 4.18 yards per carry over the last two seasons and if given 300 carries would have been capable of gaining 1,300 yards plus. Now it looks like they’ll be stuck hoping Lee Suggs works out because William Green has legal troubles. Keep a close eye on this situation if you’re planning on taking a shot at Garcia. I think his value has dipped into the bottom half of starters in this league with a few of the younger guys like Pennington and Hasselbeck really starting to step it up and others like Leftwich and possibly Boller ready to. If things fall right for him he could be a top 15 player but he is a late round pick and not a guy you can count on to start.

RB-Garner (TB): This might be a case of what have you done for me lately for a guy who topped 1,700 total yards in 1999, 2000 and 2002. Nevertheless, over the past two seasons he averaged 94.7 yards from scrimmage per game and scored one touchdown per two games played. That’s not bad folks, and Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden knows how to use him. The biggest knock is that he won’t be used inside the five yard line, which means his TD production will again suffer. However, I can see him topping 1,200 total yards fairly easily with only the likes of Alstott and Pittman competing with him for playing time. Let him slip down a few rounds and grab him. If he has a big opening game or two, deal him for whatever you can get.

RB-Staley (PIT): This is an intriguing move for the Steelers. In Staley they get a guy who has averaged about 550 yards receiving per season over the past 3 years, albeit with declining numbers. He also picks up 700 yards rushing, a figure that will probably increase in his new home. His touchdown total of 15 from the past two seasons is likely not going to change with Jerome Bettis commanding the goal-line action. With total yardage hovering at between 1,300 and 1,400 yards though you don’t want to let Staley slip under your radar on draft day. He is capable of posting a few big days and is the type of guy who will pick up 40 yards receiving and 50 yards rushing just about every week.

QB-Feeley (MIA): It was clear that the Dolphins needed a new quarterback because they had gone as far as they could with Jay Fiedler and obviously Brian Griese wasn’t the answer, but a third stringer? If I’m a Miami fan, I want answers when a guy like Jeff Garcia is on the market. Heck, even Tim Couch I could understand. Feeley gained attention when McNabb and Detmer were both injured in 2002 and he was forced into action for 6 games. He put up some wins, but didn’t exactly put up big numbers. If you triple his stats you come up with a shade over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns which are very ordinary numbers. He will have a solid top receiver in Chambers and a possible deadly player opposite of him if Boston returns to form. He also has a solid defense to put him in scoring position and the potent running of Ricky Williams. All quarterbacks should be so lucky, but even with all of this he still might not beat out Fiedler. I recommend keeping him on the radar just in case, but don’t expect much out of him because no matter how many things are tilted in his favor he hasn’t proven anything yet and isn’t a lock for the starting gig.

WR-Boston (MIA): Let’s have some fun with numbers. One guy averaged 62.9 yards per game, 0.50 touchdowns and caught 70 passes for the season. The other guy averaged 60.2 yards per game, 0.69 touchdowns and caught 64 passes total. Now which one is Boston and which is Miami’s stud Chambers? If you said Boston is the second guy, you’re wrong. My point is that even on a team with a horrible passing game, Boston still put up pretty good numbers. Imagine what he can do on a team where he is rarely double covered? If the Dolphins had a star at quarterback I have no doubt that both guys would be over 1,000 yards receiving. They don’t and making matters worse their style is to run the ball and play solid defense, not air the ball out 40 times a game. More like 28.1 passes per contest, beating out only Houston and Baltimore in the race for fewest in the NFL. That could change if Feeley comes in and gets hot, but I doubt it. You’re going to have to temper your enthusiasm when it comes to Boston because while he could test 1,000 yards it is more likely for him to wind up with another 850 yards and maybe 5 touchdowns. Still, that makes him worth drafting for your #3 wide receiver slot. The good news is that he won’t have any competition for a starting job because Thompson (26 catches, 359 yards) and McKnight (23 catches, 285 yards) were both very poor.

WR-Galloway (TB): They say he will give them the deep threat they need to complement McCardell, who last year quietly had pretty much the best overall season of his 12 year career. The question is how many balls there will be to go around with McCardell sure to catch another 70-80 and with Charles Lee taking on a bigger role. Beyond that, how much does Galloway really have left at this point? In Dallas last year he was relegated to bit player. He caught only 34 passes and had only two games with over 3 receptions. Amazingly, he did have 8 games with 43 or more yards receiving because he had a gaudy 19.8 yards per catch average. So he does bring the home run possibility to Tampa Bay’s offense. Still, after his huge opener (7 catches, 139 yards) he had just 27 catches for 533 yards in the final 15 games. That’s ugly for a guy you’ve just given up Keyshawn Johnson for. I’m looking for him to have a similar season to last year with a hot game here and there. He’ll mix in some long touchdowns and hover around 700 yards on the season. Hardly worth drafting in most leagues other than a bye week replacement that you take off the wire. I really think Lee is going to take over out of nowhere this season.

WR-Johnson (DAL): I can’t remember a guy with more hype relative to his talent. He has as many seasons under 1,000 yards receiving as over (4 each) during his career and has only 9 touchdowns over his last 41 games. Only once has he exceeded 8 touchdowns in a season (10 in 1998 for the Jets) and his career best 1,266 yards receiving took him 106 receptions to reach. Speaking of which, that the only time in his career he made it to 90 catches, much less 100, so he is not an elite receiver. With that out of the way, he complements fellow head case Terry Glenn and youngster Antonio Bryant, the latter of which is entering the critical year 3 when most receivers go off but has just gotten into a rift with the head coach. Glenn led the receiving corps last year with 52 grabs good for 754 yards. Carter had his first season over 3,000 yards, finishing with 3,302 yards and 17 touchdowns. I can see those numbers going up mostly because Johnson will be more of a “hard hat” type performer than Galloway was, and is a lock to make 70 receptions, double what Joey made last year. I think the trio will be somewhat equally productive, unfortunately, which kills all of their values. One of them is bound to wind up with 7 or more scores and if you can guess which one it will be that is the guy you should grab in your draft. I can’t see any of them winding up over 850 yards in receiving although I can almost guarantee all of them will be over 600-650.

RB-Hearst (DEN): Even with declining rushing attempts, yards and average per rush since his miraculous comeback in 2001 this guy can still play. Since he made it out of the abysmal Cincinnati/Arizona situation in 1996 he has been over 4.3 yards per rush every season, which was his mark last year. That’s a solid mark and he will be going to a team that knows a lot about running the ball. The question becomes how many touches he will get on a team with Griffin and Anderson who combined for 164 carries good for 602 yards and 3 touchdowns last year for Denver behind Clinton Portis. My guess is that Hearst will have similar value next year as he did last year. He should be in the area of 180-200 carries and you can expect both Griffin and Anderson to get a few more looks, especially early in the season when the team is trying to figure out what works the best. That duo is going to probably wind up with 180-200 carries in some combination, and likely Anderson will get the precious work at the goal line. There is always a chance that Hearst gets new life and becomes a guy that will get 20 carries a game, which could translate to a 1,300 yard rushing season. Keep an eye on him late in the draft and if you have room on your roster snatch him up. With an average of only 215 carries per season the past 3 years it isn’t as though he is beaten up, he can still be productive.

WR-McCareins (NYJ): This guy had a quietly productive 2003 season, picking up 813 yards receiving despite never catching over 5 passes in any single game. He had a better second half with 461 yards and four games with 70 or more. He also scored a touchdown in four consecutive games and five overall in the second half, with 7 for the season. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t drafted in any fantasy league I know of. He will go nicely with Santana Moss and be much more productive than the guy he replaces (Conway, 46 catches, 640 yards, 2 touchdowns). His presence will free up Moss to make more plays, but you can expect no less than 70 receptions and probably 900 yards out of him, especially if Pennington can keep his ass on the field for 16 games. Solid sleeper material, especially if your league is comprised of 12 or 14 teams.

RB-Jones (CHI): Do they seriously think this guy is better than A-Train? He has been a colossal bust since being taken #7 overall in the 2000 draft by Arizona and now I think he is just trying to hit all the poor rushing teams in the NFL. Tampa Bay? Check. Now it’s on to Chicago. The sad thing is that last year was the best in his career with 627 yards and a 4.6 average. For that dismal four year career he has a 3.8 average and 12 touchdowns in 55 games. Heck, with 1,891 yards total he wouldn’t even have led the NFL had he done that in one season and would have been only 8 yards ahead of Ahman Green for the NFC lead. That’s sad. I think the Bears are going to start passing the ball recklessly so his only shot at value is to improve on his 1.76 catch per start average and become a factor out of the backfield. I think it is just best to avoid him entirely. I rarely say that about running backs, but in his case it is warranted believe me.

WR-Robinson (MIN): How did the Ravens let this guy go? After a frighteningly unproductive first 10 games where he had high marks of 2 catches and 14 yards, with a total of 76 yards and no touchdowns on just 9 catches the light went on. Or should I say Wright? Reunited with his old college quarterback Anthony Wright he had a four touchdown day with 131 yards receiving during a stirring 44-41 comeback win over Seattle. That day highlighted his final 5 games where he totaled 375 yards and had 2 other touchdown receptions. Now he gets Daunte Culpepper throwing him the ball and certain single coverage alongside Randy Moss. On a team that was dead last in passing (140.9 yards per game) it is tough to succeed but now he moves to one that is more than 100 yards better at #4 in the NFL (246.9). They are also dying for someone to pick up the slack behind Moss. Campbell and Burleson were both big play receivers with gaudy 20.9 and 15.7 averages respectively. It only took that pair 54 receptions to total 977 yards and they combined for 6 touchdowns. The big issue then is where Robinson can carve out his production with only Bates (151 yards on just 15 catches) out of the picture. I’m not sure that he can, although certainly Moss could stand to scale down after a monster season where he had 111 receptions for 1,632 yards and 17 scores. In the final analysis it all depends on how much of a connection develops with Daunte, but I really don’t see over 700 yards out of him this season. Nevertheless, his addition really pumps up Culpepper’s value because now they can go four wide.

WR-Streets (DET): He has been a quietly productive fantasy player in the larger leagues over the past two seasons with 12 total touchdowns and 1,351 yards receiving over that span. Now he joins a Detroit squad desperate for some production at the wide receiver spot. Last year Hakim led the team at the position in all major categories with 49 receptions, 449 yards and 4 touchdowns. The good news is that Charles Rogers will be back from injury after his solid yet brief five game rookie season where he caught 4 or more passes in each game and had 3 touchdowns. He will be their feature player, allowing Hakim and Streets to draw single coverage. I think Streets fits well into their offense and Detroit fans will be hoping that Harrington continues to improve in this his third season. However, I don’t see much more than about 750 yards from him this season although he could easily catch another 6 touchdowns. He is a guy you can count on in a league with 14 teams or as a bye week replacement in 10 team leagues.

WR-White (ATL): Things really never worked out for Dez in Chicago, although he was their second best receiver statistically last year. His career highs of 51 catches, 656 yards and 4 touchdowns were all achieved in 2002 which of course was his magical third season as a pro when receivers are supposed to blossom. Unfortunately he is not much more than a third receiver until proven otherwise. He will contend with Brian Finneran for a possible starting role, but that might be too optimistic. On the downside, the Falcons might draft a player in the first round that could make an immediate impact and reduce his production considerably. At best White will break out with career highs of around 750 yards receiving and maybe 6 touchdowns in his new surroundings. I’d be surprised if he did any more than that which makes him waiver wire material in most leagues.

QB-Griese (TB): The once promising quarterback failed miserably in Miami and now he joins another team that seems desperate to get rid of their starter, in this case Brad Johnson. Don’t expect it to happen this season unless Johnson is very, very bad or gets hurt. For all the abuse Johnson has taken while the team courted players such as Jeff Garcia, he did rank 5th in the NFL in passing yards (3,811) and tied for third in touchdowns (26). Of course he was also third in interceptions with 21, but led the league in pass attempts at 570, which is almost 36 per game. Griese was not nearly as productive in Miami last year. In the four games where he threw the ball 27 times or more, only twice did he exceed 140 yards and his high mark was 231 with an average of 170. That’s not good. Three of his five touchdowns came in his first start. Keep an eye on him for future considerations but at this point he is certainly not worth drafting unless you are in some kind of insane 18 or 20 team league.

RB-Dillon (NE): While most think the Patriots got a steal by obtaining him for a second round pick, I beg to differ. First off, Clinton Portis was selected #41 overall last year which shows just what kind of value you can get for a pick such as the #56 that they relinquished. Dillon will turn 30 in the second month of the season, a number that clearly spells the beginning of the end for feature backs, especially those with 2,057 career touches, most of which ended with a hit or two. Clearly they overpaid for a guy the Raiders were willing to give up a fourth or possibly third round pick for. Setting that aside, he still has 1,300 yard rushing potential and could easily score double digit touchdowns for the Pats. His receiving numbers have never amounted to much and on a team with Kevin Faulk they probably won’t this year either. However, if you want a guy with 1,500 all purpose yards and around 12-14 touchdowns he is your man. I’ll take that as a yes. Not a long term solution, but clearly a key component in New England’s repeat plans.

QB-Warner (NYG): Here’s a guy who has a pair of 4,300+ yard and 36+ TD seasons since 1999, but really had one suitor. Ironically it was the team who forced him into 6 fumbles (3 lost) and an interception in the only game he started last season. In his mind he is battling rookie Eli Manning for the starting job, but at 33 it is clear that he doesn’t have a long term future with the team that is likely going to be staring up at 3 other solid clubs in the NFC East this season. If you’re losing, why not look to the future? I know you’re looking at the stats put up by Collins and thinking wistfully that it could be Warner posting 3,600 yards and 22 touchdowns, but it’s not likely to happen. At best, if you have huge rosters or a large league (12 or 14 teams) you can draft both Manning and Warner hoping one of them plays out of their mind. Doing that in a regular league would mean it’s you who is out of your mind.

QB-Testaverde (DAL): Here’s an interesting scenario. I really thought Vinny was coming to the Cowboys last year and thought that if he did they would make the playoffs. Now I’m thinking he is their starter. Yes he is going to turn 40 in November, but over the last 5 seasons he has played 1, 5 and 7 games respectively to reduce some of the wear and tear on his body which has logged 201 NFL games. Without question he has targets in Dallas with Keyshawn, Glenn and Bryant. From a fantasy standpoint, however, I don’t know if he will be worth more points than Carter. Given a full season at the helm he would definitely throw under the 21 picks that Carter delivered last year, but he will rush for nothing whereas Quincy had a valuable 257 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s a wash, and I can’t see Vinny throwing for over 3,302 or many more than 17 touchdowns. In a perfect world you’ll see Testaverde start from game 1, finish the season healthy and throw for 3,400 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Still, he’s a third string quarterback on draft day if you’re smart. On a side note, Vinny needs 2,098 yards to pass Fouts for #6 on the all-time list. He would need just 75 completions to unseat Montana for #6 and an unlikely 353 to pass by Tarkenton for #5. With just 13 touchdowns he would rocket from #11 to #7 on the all-time list past Fouts, Jurgensen, Krieg and Montana. Given the unlikely scenario that he has another full season (or close to it) he could conceivably finish up #4 in completions and touchdowns and #5 in yardage. Not bad, eh?

QB-Collins (Oakland): This guy can still play. How many quarterbacks do you know that have averaged better than 225 yards per game in each of the past five seasons? Not many and given the right situation he might finally deliver some touchdown passes, which has been his major drawback. He has only 132 in 123 career games and that’s not enough for a fantasy starter even if he passes for 3,600 or 4,000 yards based on most scoring systems. If he does replace Gannon the potential for success will be there even though the team had only 9 touchdown throws last year as five different quarterbacks saw action. With Porter back at full strength and a pair of promising rookies to help stretch the field the passing game should return to top 10 status in the NFL, especially with the infusion of talent on the offensive line with Pro Bowler Stone at guard and #2 overall pick Gallery at tackle. The potential for 3,600 yards and 25 touchdowns is there if he is the starter so grab this guy in the middle rounds after the marquee names are gone. You shouldn’t be drafting a quarterback in the first three rounds anyway.

QB-Stewart (BAL): This move cements Kyle Boller’s role as the starting quarterback for the Ravens. That is about all this means because Stewart has done nothing to warrant fantasy consideration since 1997, which was his only valuable year. In that magical season he was Michael Vick before we knew what that meant. He passed for 3,020 yards and 21 touchdowns which isn’t much until you consider he pitched in 476 rushing yards and another 11 scores. When you consider how most leagues score, that’s the equivalent of around 4,100-4,300 yards passing and 36-38 passing touchdowns. Yikes. He has had big rushing seasons since with 406, 436 and 537 during the next 4 campaigns in Pittsburgh but averaged only 4 rushing scores and 10.5 passing touchdowns with 2,248 passing yards on average. Ouch. Over his past 17 games with Pittsburgh (8) and Chicago (9) he has totaled 2,573 yards passing with 13 touchdowns while rushing for 481 yards and another 5 scores. That’s not bye week material and it’s not even enough to get him on your roster in a 14 team league. If you draft Boller as your second quarterback, draft insurance for your first quarterback because if Stewart gets in you can expect about 160 yards passing with 1 touchdown and 35 yards rushing on any given week.

Now let’s take a look at some of the newly anointed starters around the league after teams made trades or simply let their incumbents go.

QB-McCown (AZ): The Cards still might draft a quarterback, but as it stands right now he will be the guy for Dennis Green. Last season once he finally had the job he performed pretty well actually. After tossing 4 interceptions in his first 48 passes he had only 2 more while starting the final 4 games in 118 attempts. He also managed a QB rating of 88.4 or higher in three of those four starts and threw 5 TD passes. His yardage numbers were pretty low but if Bryant Johnson and/or Bryan Gilmore can start to take some of the heat off Boldin that could change in a hurry. Really there are too many good quarterbacks out there to choose from to spend much time worrying about McCown. All told the Cards had 3,265 yards passing with 18 touchdowns last season which is not material for a top 10 FFL quarterback. Keep him in mind as a cheap insurance policy though, especially if you are in a large league.

QB-Rattay (SF): Here’s what I thought before his injury - In his three game stint as a starter he posted decent numbers with six touchdowns against just two interceptions, but his yardage high was only 254 yards. I’m guessing that losing his top two receivers (Owens and Streets, 127 receptions for 1,702 yards and 16 touchdowns) won’t help. The 49ers are counting on Cedrick Wilson and Brandon Lloyd, not exactly household names, to really step it up in starting roles this season. I think they need a veteran to help them along but this season was thin as far as free agents go so they weren’t able to get one. Still, both will see huge jumps in production after combining to make 49 receptions for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns. With a completely new offense comes risk, but when you can get any 49er skill position player in the late rounds (other than Barlow) why not take a shot? You might find a cheap gem that you can stick in your lineup when your starter is hurt or on a bye week. The final analysis on Rattay is that without a star like Owens at receiver he should struggle to eclipse 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season. Not good for a starter in anything under a 14 or 16 team league.

QB-Dorsey (SF): I think the 49ers would be crazy to start the season with him at the helm, but given the fact that I didn’t expect fantasy worthy numbers out of Rattay given the supporting cast you can forget drafting Dorsey. He has potential to be a career backup and that’s about it.

QB-Palmer (CIN): I don’t like this move at all. Perhaps Marvin Lewis was pressured by the front office to give him the starting job after fellow first round pick Kyle Boller (also out of the Pac-10) started as a rookie and was anointed Baltimore’s starter for 2004. When you have a guy who finishes 7th in passing yards (3,591) 9th in quarterback rating (87.4) and 3rd in touchdown passes (26) you don’t put him on the bench for an untested second year player just because he was the #1 overall pick. About the only knock on Kitna is that he was sacked 37 times to rank behind only Bledsoe, McNabb (surprising, huh?) Hasselbeck and Maddox. However, added mobility is going to be offset by the speed of the game and you remember how often David Carr was sacked during his rookie season right? You don’t? I’ll remind you, it was 76 times or nearly five per contest. Those are all drive killers for a team that is supposed to contend for a playoff spot. Now the good news, which is that he has an emerging star with Chad Johnson and a guy finally playing up to his potential in Peter Warrick. They combined for 169 receptions good for 2,174 yards and 17 touchdowns last year. Not quite Holt and Bruce numbers, but they are getting there and these guys are young. They also have Kelley Washington in his second year out of Tennessee. With Rudi Johnson taking over at running back this is an offense that could be solid for years to come if Palmer lives up to his potential. Still, he has yet to throw an NFL pass in the regular season and he really had only one big year in college. That’s far too much uncertainty for me and I’m betting that by week 3 or 4 Kitna will be back at the helm. Let’s hope the move won’t don’t irreparable damage to Palmer’s psyche, we wouldn’t want him turning into another Ryan Leaf.

RB-Johnson (CIN): The Bengals have decided to go with the younger, cheaper and they think better running back while letting the head case Corey Dillon exit. It is probably the right move and if you’re smart you will keep your eye on him in the early rounds of your draft. He could be the biggest steal out there because a lot of owners aren’t savvy enough to realize that given 310 carries last year his rushing stats balloon to almost 1,400 yards. He didn’t catch many passes, but he did score 9 times and had a healthy 4.5 average carry. The only speed bump could be Palmer at quarterback. If he struggles, you can bet teams will lock down on Johnson with eight in the box very quickly. Defenses these days adjust immediately so if Palmer is unable to read blitzes and hit his receivers they will capitalize on his deficiencies and Johnson’s production will dip big time. I think he is worth taking a chance on because I think Kitna will regain his starting job, perhaps before the end of the exhibition season once Lewis sees that Palmer is not ready. If he doesn’t, you might look to steal him from a fed up owner early in the season.

QB-Grossman (CHI): The Bears have cut off the Kordell Stewart experiment and Chris Chandler is now a Ram which means Rex is the man for better or worse. Last year he got two full games and part of another with mixed results. He completed only 53% of his passes but did have a solid showing against Washington where he threw for 249 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception during a 27-24 victory. He also led them to a win in his other full game despite completing only 13 of 30 throws for 157 yards and no scores during a 13-10 upset of Minnesota. There really isn’t enough evidence there to say how he will do over the course of a full season, but without a stud at running back I am certain they will give him a chance to throw the ball 35 or 40 times a game to see what he can do. There were a trio of receivers who caught at least 43 passes last year (plus tight end Clark who grabbed 44) but none had over 52 and the mediocre Dez White left for Atlanta. Booker needs to step back up to be the main man after a disappointing campaign with the rotation at quarterback. In the two games with Grossman at the helm he had 7 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown, which is good news. The talk is that David Terrell is going to be more involved, but for a guy with 903 yards receiving in his three season career I’ll believe it when I see it. Also, the running game is counting on Thomas Jones for its revival which is a joke. He sucked in Arizona and Tampa Bay, but I guess he wanted to be a part of every poor running team in the NFL. Look, Grossman is going to take his lumps but in two seasons from now when he has another target or two he will be a quality FFL quarterback. At this point avoid him unless you are in a deep league and want to take a chance.

RB-Barlow (SF): The departure of Garrison Hearst sent this guy’s stock way up because now he is not only the feature back but the clear choice to get the ball in the red zone. This guy rushed for 1,024 yards and 6 touchdowns with Hearst around so you can imagine how excited people are about his prospects as the lone stud. It would be safe to say that last year he would have eclipsed 1,800 total yards with double digit touchdowns but those numbers will be tempered this year after the loss of both starting receivers and the starting quarterback. Rattay throwing to Wilson and Lloyd does not have the same impact on defenses as Garcia throwing to Owens and Streets and now Rattay might not even start the season. Furthermore, you have to figure he was more effective on defenses while being fresh and serving as a change of pace to Hearst. He had only 7 games where he had over 11 carries, and the pounding of a full 300 carries can wear down a lot of backs. He finished with 201 rushes last year. So be glad that he is one of the few guys who gets 20+ carries and the touchdowns, but be ready for defenses to lock down on him if the new passing attack struggles. Still, it is safe to expect at least 1,400 total yards and 10 touchdowns from him which warrants serious consideration in the early rounds of the draft.

RB-Suggs (CLE): If William Green can’t get his life in order the job goes over to Suggs. In limited action last year he showed flashes over 56 carries with a gaudy 5.2 average and a long run of 78 yards. Of course, take out that single run and his average dips to 3.8 yards. Still, during the last two games of the season he rushed the ball 20 times in each game and finished with 46 carries for 254 yards with two touchdowns. You would take that output from a fantasy starter. The once very poor Cleveland running game took a step up last year behind a quartet of runners who picked up at least 266 yards rushing. In all they averaged 4.0 yards per rush and were just shy of 1,500 yards. Don’t expect Suggs to reach that number if he is the lone runner as expected, but something in the neighborhood of 1,200 yards is certainly possible. He would also be the man to score the touchdowns. The bigger question is what he could give you in receiving yards because he caught only two passes last year for 0 yards. Keep a close watch on this situation. He is the kind of player who you might steal in round 5 and ride to a title as your #2 running back.

Others to watch:

RB-Jordan (NYJ): I keep waiting for Curtis Martin to break down and this might be the year. If he does, this is the guy you want on your roster. He has a career average of 4.7 yards per rush and clearly would be the guy to score the touchdowns. Fact is, the Jets might use him in that role this year anyway after he put up 4 scores to Martin’s 2. If you have the luxury of a large roster, have used a pick on Martin or are in a large league give Jordan a hard look.

RB-Brown (TEN): I think it is time for the Titans to expect more than the putrid 3.23 yards per carry average that Eddie George has given them over the past three seasons. If not for his 22 touchdowns and 3,170 yards over that span he would be off the fantasy radar by now. The only thing he does is run right up the middle, as evidenced by his long of 25 during that span. He had three games last year where his longest runs were 6, 6 and 8 yards and in 13 of 16 games his long was 17 or less. His breakaway speed is long gone and they didn’t draft Chris Brown for nothing. In limited action last year including the playoffs he had 74 carries good for 317 yards (4.3 average) and scored a touchdown in each of their playoff games. If that’s not the changing of the guard I don’t know what is. I don’t expect Eddie to go straight to the bench, but after averaging 341 carries over his 8 year career I look for that number to drop considerably. There was a 312 to 56 split last season, and that will be more like 200 to 150 this year if both men stay healthy. Fisher has a loyalty to George but it is costing his team dearly. Keep your eye on Brown for the future.

RB-Shipp (AZ): I think it is obvious that Emmitt Smith is simply returning to claim a paycheck, so Shipp has a chance to really take over the reins. The bad news is that he was held out of the end zone on all 228 of his carries and the team had only 5 rushing scores all of last season, with 3 coming from quarterbacks. They also rated #29 running the ball. However, given Emmitt’s 90 rushes this guy would have had 1,154 yards and has the potential to mix in another 250-300 catching the ball. Regardless of touchdown production, running backs who pick up 1,300+ all-purpose yards are impact fantasy players in most leagues so make sure he is on your draft sheet and take him for added depth after you have two or possibly three other rushers.

RB-McGahee (BUF): I can tell you right now that I can’t envision drafting this guy unless I have taken Henry early on. If I am running a team, I don’t take a player out who just ran the ball 331 times for 1,356 yards on a club with a dismal passing game meaning that defenses were honing in on him. At best what this does is create a situation where they would rather have Henry carrying it 270 times and giving McGahee the other 61 plus the 39 from Burns and 19 from Morris for a total of 119. Those carries at best mean 500-550 yards and a handful of touchdowns. Draft him for Henry insurance and certainly mark Henry down because of his presence.

RB-Westbrook/Buckhalter (PHI): The Eagles had a tough three-headed monster last year as these two combined with Staley for 1,618 yards rushing on 339 carries and also caught 83 passes good for another 847 yards. All told they had 27 touchdowns and 2,465 all-purpose yards. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that since Westbrook (945 total yards, 11 scores) had the biggest share of this yardage that he stands to benefit the most from Staley’s exit. If he can assume just half of Staley’s production he will be in the 1,500 all-purpose yards range with 14-16 touchdowns. That being said, the team could fall back in love with Buckhalter and his career 4.4 yard rushing average given that as a rookie he was closing in on their feature back role. Then he missed the entire 2002 season, but he did show serious flashes last year. He had consecutive games where he totaled 192 yards rushing on only 38 carries and rolled up 115 yards on just 13 carries in another contest. Buckhalter’s size makes him the leading candidate to gobble up Staley’s vacated 96 rushes, but clearly Westbrook is most suited to inherit his 36 receptions out of the backfield. In the final analysis, both players are worth grabbing in your draft after the starters with no one to split time with are taken. Buckhalter should approach 1,000 yards on the ground while Westbrook is a good bet for 700 rushing and another 650 receiving.

RB-Bennett/Williams/Smith (MIN): This trio pounded out a staggering 1,771 yards rushing on 371 carries and another 905 yards receiving on 92 catches out of the backfield. So while this group’s 2,676 total yards and 15 touchdowns is similar to the Philadelphia group, unfortunately for fantasy owners all three will be back. Your job is to figure out who will be the most productive. Williams was the ultimate team player and led the group in every category other than yards per rush where Smith (5.4) and Bennett (5.0) were outstanding. Still, he had 239 touches good for 1,389 total yards and 8 touchdowns and made many owners happy given how cheaply he could be had on draft day. Nevertheless he would be hard pressed to duplicate those numbers now that the speedy Bennett is healthy and with the powerful Smith stepping into his own. He could turn into a short yardage and touchdown specialist with maybe 80-100 touches for the season. I expect Bennett to assume a lot of Williams’ receiving touches and just over half of his rushes. Smith will fight for playing time and will likely end the season with around 120-130 touches. That leaves Bennett with around 230-260 touches on the season at a bare minimum. It is still possible that Smith and Williams will fall into Bennett’s shadow if the offense gels with him on the field. Guessing which guy is the most productive can make your draft so keep an eye on them.

QB-Pennington (NYJ): There are a lot of good reasons not to pick a quarterback early in your draft. Here is one of them. After breaking out in 2002 with 22 touchdowns against only 6 interceptions he appeared in only 10 games last year, but forget all of that. Now he has a solid, emerging #2 receiver in McCareins to go along with Santana Moss and seems poised to reach at least 3,400 yards and 22-24 touchdowns, if not more. If you can get that kind of production out of a player that your draft in say the fifth or sixth round I’d say you’re in good shape, wouldn’t you?

QB-Harrington (DET): If you’re looking for a backup that could wind up unseating your starter, this might be the guy to take. They have surrounded him with a ton of talent and the time is now for him to start utilizing it. Last year he had 5 games over 230 yards and 4 games where he threw multiple touchdown passes. Not exactly Payton Manning, but it’s a start. His improvement level tells me that he is due for over 3,200 yards and 20-22 touchdowns and that is a solid insurance policy for your starter who might be an injury risk due to age or style of play.

WR-Bennett/Calico (TEN): Cap troubles forced the Titans to deal McCareins and his 47 receptions to the Jets, and tight end Frank Wycheck (17 receptions) retired so there are 64 balls out there for this duo to fight over. Likely the one who winds up in the starting lineup will getting them, and that is a player who could quietly add value to your team if you are in a large 14 or more team league. The club seems high on Calico, who caught only 18 passes last year but had a sterling 16.5 yard average and took 4 of those catches to the house. Bennett also had 4 touchdowns, but his average (15.8) was slightly lower and it took him 32 receptions. With uncertainty in the running game where George might be unseated by Brown, and Wycheck’s retirement this team is looking more and more like one that will feature wide receivers in their offense. Mason caught 95 balls last year and he is tapped out. Any production left over will go to Bennett or Calico, and if one steps it up there is a good chance they will wind up around 900 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. Don’t forget, this is a team that produced 30 receiving touchdowns and 24 of those came from wide receivers.

RB-George (TEN): There is still a possibility that he could remain a Titan and ruin the value of Chris Brown, but we’ll speculate that he is dropped. I’ve been pretty down on him given his putrid 3.3 average rush last season and recently it seems that all he does is slam into the line for two yards. However, given a closer look at his final 7 regular season games and playoff opener against Baltimore last year I noticed that he had 633 yards in that “half season” and a more palatable 3.77 average run. Still, he had only 1 touchdown during that stretch which has to be the most troubling stat for a guy who had averaged 10 scores on the ground and 2 more in the receiving game over the previous 4 seasons. People are saying he could wind up in Philadelphia, which considering he was born there makes a little sense, but I thought they were trying to clear up their depth chart when they let Staley go right? He would basically be a Buckhalter clone, only slower and it’s not like he’s needed to keep Buckhalter fresh because Westbrook will see the bulk of the action. Oakland is another possible destination because he’s old and people are telling him he “can’t do it anymore” so naturally the Raiders want him. He would be forced to compete with recent acquisitions Zereoue and Hambrick plus incumbents Wheatley and Fargas for first a spot on the roster and then playing time. Not a good scenario. I could see him landing as a backup in Houston or New Orleans. He might even wind up in Baltimore as insurance for Lewis who has legal issues. A team like Detroit might want him because they have no better options other than their rookie Jones. To me that is the best fit. Wait until this plays out, but don’t count on George having anywhere near the talent he had when FFL owners were taking him in the second or third round annually.

TE-Carswell (DEN): With Sharpe’s retirement he is probably the one who stands to benefit the most. In the two seasons when Sharpe was in Baltimore he averaged 42 receptions for 397 yards and 3.5 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad numbers. The team also grabbed Jed Weaver from San Francisco (437 yards, 1 score last year) but he might need time to adjust to the situation. Chamberlain was signed, but he is a trouble man who is likely going to be used more as a blocker than a pass receiver. Keep an eye on Carswell and also Weaver as a sleeper tight end that you might be able to get off the wire as a bye week replacement early on in the season.

QB-Couch (GB): What do you do with a quarterback whose career highs are 3,040 yards passing and 18 touchdowns, with more career interceptions than total scores and only one full season played out of six due to injuries or ineffectiveness? Leave him alone, that’s what and certainly don’t draft him. He never panned out in Cleveland and you can blame it on the lack of any semblance of a running game or the fact that he had no big time receivers, but the guy just isn’t tough. Every single season his quarterback rating has been between 73 and 77 and his TD/INT ratio has ranged from +2 to -4 which shows just how mediocre he has been. Last year his first start was a solid one with 280 yards passing and 2 touchdowns, but his next start (208 yards, 2 touchdowns) was his last with over 181 yards and in his final 8 games worth of action he had only 3 touchdowns. As a Packer it is likely that he will see a bit of action this year because Favre’s ridiculous string of games started is due to end. However, Favre is such a warrior that he likely won’t miss more than 1 start if he does happen to get hurt. I look for Green Bay to take the real Favre successor in the 2005 draft and leave Couch to groom him during the 2005 and 2006 seasons. I expected a lot more from him coming out of Kentucky where he was stellar.