The tough part about last week for me was that I knew a lot of upsets were coming. I just couldn’t see where they would be. That’s why I picked exactly zero, leaving me at 8 of 19 for the season in that department. It is also why I was just 7-7 picking winners (62-40 overall) and 4-9-1 against the spread (47-51-3). I had my usual positive experience on the over/under at 8-6 (61-40-1) but that is a small consolation to me. The odds makers went 8-6 straight up (63-38-1) to remain a hair ahead of me, and 5-8-1 against their spread (45-52-5) so at least I lead them in that. The over won out 8-6 for a change, but still trails 56-45 with 1 push on the season.

The consensus was 9-5 picking winners, but the three most likely (Colts and Giants 40-0, Seahawks 39-1) all lost and another 38-2 (Denver) did as well. Sadly, I had an inkling to take the Jags at the last minute and everyone knows my penchant for backing the Bengals. Against the spread it was a 7-6-1 week, and 9-5 for the over/under meaning overall a pretty good week with all positive numbers.
This week we get 4 games featuring a pair of winning teams and some interesting ones at that. The Giants visit Minnesota in the “will he or won’t he” play saga of Randy Moss. Baltimore travels to Philadelphia where they face old pal Terrell Owens who I presume won’t be running any slant routes near Ray Lewis. Denver hosts Atlanta in a game between teams who were both embarrassed badly last week, but still stand at 5-2. Game of the week has to be New England going into Pittsburgh with the streak on the line against the rookie Roethlisberger. The big loser is the primetime viewing audience which will have to stomach a trio of teams that stand a combined 3-16 on the season including a battle of 1-5 teams on ESPN when San Francisco goes to Chicago which is one of 4 games this week featuring a pair of losers. Sure, Miami at the Jets looked like a good MNF game when the season started, but that’s exactly why they should rotate the schedule on the fly. We won’t miss much talent this week because the four teams that are off have combined to go 12-16 thus far.

I have the over winning again, 8-6 with six underdogs covering and two winning straight up. Again I have set myself up for a tough week picking winners but what can I say, I simply play the match-ups and let the chips fall where they may. I still lead most of the pickers out there so I’m okay for now.

Arizona (2-4) @ Buffalo (1-5): pick BUF -3/over 33.5

The Cards are suddenly getting a lot of love after people realize how competitive they have really been this season. Without shooting themselves in the foot at Atlanta (6-3 loss) and blowing a 28-12 lead in San Francisco (31-28 OT loss) they would be 4-2 heading into their double header against 1 win teams on the road. They also get last year’s rookie of the year Boldin back at wide receiver, which has to be a big boost to their offense. That is important against a defense that has not allowed an opposing offense to score more than 16 points in five of their six games. The only exception was New England who put up 24. Neither of these teams pass the ball effectively and both rank in the bottom 10 in yardage. The Bills have a 3.7 yard average in the running game, which is the 5th worst while the Cards (3.8) are one tick higher. Emmitt may have found the fountain of youth, but the Bills have actual youth in McGahee who is being given the start and should make the most of it against an Arizona defense yielding 4.8 yards per carry (3rd highest) while the old man is on the other end of the spectrum against a defense giving up just 3.5 (3rd lowest). The Cards give up about 46 more yards through the air than Buffalo’s #6 secondary and I think you see where I’m going with this. The desert is a long way from New York, and this game will be played in the mid 40’s with wind and possibly a little rain. This team isn’t prepared for that. I’m looking for a big game from McGahee who will score the first rushing touchdown against Arizona this season, making them the last team to give one up: Buffalo 22, Arizona 14

Detroit (4-2) @ Dallas (2-4): pick DAL -3/under 41

A lot of people would have expected these teams to have their records reversed at this point in the season. This is a game the Cowboys need to have if they want any shot at the playoffs. They have already lost to the other 4-2 team (New York) occupying one of the wild card spots and losing would put them behind 5 non-divisional leaders, three of which would have the tiebreaker over them. Desperate times might be what this defense needs to return to 2003 form when they held over half their opponents under 17 points. During their three game slide teams have averaged 30.3 points and 26.0 for the season. For the Lions, it has been a complete turnaround from 0-24 on the road (2001-2003) to 3-0 this year. With both meetings against the Vikings forthcoming they also control their own destiny for a division title. This set where they play 4 of 5 on the road seemed like a season killer when I predicted them to miss the playoffs at 7-9, but with a win under their belt now it doesn’t look so daunting. What amazes me is that they have done it with the dead last offense in total yards (243.5) and it isn’t as though they are getting clutch third down plays (#29, 30.1%). It has simply been key scoring drives when it matters most and big plays. The Cowboys have no such issues moving the ball (#10, 356.5) or converting on third down (#9, 41.6%). To win they need to rely less on Vinny’s arm (#6, 260.0) and more on Eddie’s legs (#26, 96.5) which it appears they will do in this one, but only 3 teams have allowed fewer yards per rush (3.6) than the Lions. The loss of Glenn and the replacement of Bryant with Morgan via the trade means that makes more sense, but we’ll see how it works out. Overall you would think the Lions have a good defense given their record and offensive struggles, but you’d be wrong (#30, 361.3). The Cowboys aren’t much better (#25, 352.3) but face a weaker offense to be sure. That’s because only the Dolphins and Texans have a worse rushing average (3.4) than these Lions although Kevin Jones gave them a spark last week and faces a Dallas defense allowing an NFL high 5.1 yards per carry. The Detroit passing game has been strange because the yardage (#29, 160.7) is horrible, but 10 touchdowns (#7) ties them with the Rams and only the two New York teams have fewer interceptions (3). That feeds right into the weakness of the Cowboys, who haven’t given up a lot of yards in the air (#16, 213.0) but have allowed 13 scores (#30) against only 3 interceptions (#30). The more I analyze, the more confused I get. Can Eddie pound at this defense and make a difference even with 3 yard runs? I think so, and 2nd and 7 plays lead to 3rd and 5 which the Cowboys have shown they can convert. Will Kevin Jones ramble on this defense? No, because this defense will serve up some pride at home after letting Ahman Green kill them last week. He will average in the 4.0-4.2 range, but again this team has struggled converting third down. The biggest question could be Roy Williams trying to get deep on Roy Williams. That should be interesting. Overall I just like the Cowboys to finally put it together on defense. Statistics don’t lie and the Lions can’t continue to win these games after losing the yardage battle: Dallas 20, Detroit 16

Jacksonville (5-2) @ Houston (3-3): pick JAX +2/under 42.5

The Jags are officially this year’s version of the Panthers as a lot of people predicted they would be. I picked them to go 7-9 and be competitive, and they have turned that into five wins by a touchdown or less. With the Colts behind them, the schedule now opens up a little bit as they try to finish their first half strong before their bye and complete a road sweep of divisional opponents. Houston is trying to once again win consecutive games after taking three of their last four. Coming off a bye week they should be confident and rested in front of their home fans. Right off the bat I can tell you this should be a close game, and how in the world can you bet against Leftwich in those circumstances? Do you think Billick regrets getting Boller instead of this guy in the draft? Neither offense really wows you and there aren’t many starts on either unit, but you might be surprised to see Houston (#8, 359.8) and Jacksonville (#15, 326.1) both in the upper half. Both teams have done it with the pass with the Texans (#7, 258.8) ranking just ahead of the Jags (#11, 227.3) although neither team has multiple threats. Houston relies on the young Andre Johnson (591 yards) while Jacksonville has the veteran Jimmy Smith (586) and both are in the top 5 on the NFL yardage chart. With each team among the bottom 11 in passing yardage allowed you should see plenty of passing. No team has allowed more passing touchdowns than Houston (14) while Jacksonville has given up 10 (9th most). Despite both teams having a proven runner, they each rank in the bottom 10 for rushing yards although with Davis banged up the Texans are #31 in rushing average (3.3) while the Jags rank #19 (4.0). Those differences are accentuated when you consider that Houston allows 4.8 yards per rush (#30) and Jacksonville only 3.9 (#10). If those stats hash out, you get Jacksonville plowing away at 4.4 while Houston gets 3.6 which is a huge difference as the game goes on. I think both teams have overachieved, and if the Titans had money to spend in free agency they would be 4-3 and 3-4 respectively so let’s not get carried away with either of them going to the AFC title game. I know that Houston has the ability to win this game if Dominack Davis steps up and gets them going on the ground, but I haven’t see it yet. Last week he had only 10 rushes for 25 yards, and I’m a see it before I believe it kind of guy: Jacksonville 20, Houston 17

Indianapolis (4-2) @ Kansas City (2-4): pick KC +2.5/over 56.5

The Chiefs saved their season by wiping out Atlanta 56-10, and now they can really kick start their comeback dreams by winning this game. Helping their cause is the revenge factor after the Colts entered the stadium where they had gone 8-0 and beat them 38-31 in the playoffs without punting a single time. That might have spilled over to this season where they lost their first three, two at home. Last week the defense really woke up after allowing 26.4 points per game during the 1-4 start but this is Manning not Vick they will be facing. The rest of the talent is a lot better too. The Colts have scored at least 24 in every game this season and average 30.5 points. Get your calculators ready again as two of the NFL’s top 5 yardage offenses take the field. The difference is that the Chiefs do it on the ground (#1, 161.7) with an NFL high 14 scores thanks to 8 last week while the Colts are an aerial team (#3, 274.7) with the second most touchdowns (17). As beleaguered as this Chiefs defense is, their yardage total (#9, 312.3) is a whole lot better than Indy’s (#31, 390.2). What is weird about this game is that the Chiefs love to run, but face the worst passing defense (292.3) while the Colts love to pass and meet a weak run defense (#25, 125.2). Will the teams change their game plans accordingly? I don’t believe so. Teams haven’t run much on Indy (22.8 per game, 2nd fewest) which is why they rank #6 in yardage (97.8) but they give up 4.3 yards per rush (#20) so you can expect Holmes to exploit that. He has 26+ rushes three times already and would have last week had the game not gotten out of hand. I look for at least 25 and between 115 and 130 yards from him. Green is gaining more confidence in the air after picking up 315 and 269 yards in his past two games, and now has four straight games where he has finished above 67% in completions with only 2 interceptions in that span. I look for him to have a lot of success. If the Colts decided to stick with the pass, they take their chances with a secondary that already has 7 interceptions (#7) but I expect a heavy dose of James who has really only seen heavy duty in two games (30 against New England, 32 against Oakland) and otherwise has been between 18-21 carries. He needs to be in the 25 range and like Holmes around 115-130 yards. It seems like it boils down to who can do more passing, which would seem to favor Manning, but the difference in defenses makes it pretty even. These Chiefs can bring it at home, and last week brought their swagger back. I think they can gain some revenge and hurt Indy’s hopes of drawing home field advantage in the playoffs: Kansas City 31, Indianapolis 28

NY Giants (4-2) @ Minnesota (5-1): pick NYG +7/over 48
It looks like Moss will be able to go in this one, which is bad news for New York, who has done it with defense so far. In their wins they have held teams to just 10.3 points with a high of 14. In their losses they have allowed 31 and 28. Now they have to deal with the top ranked Minnesota offense (449.3) which is 50 yards better than any other team. Matching blows is an option because they can move the ball (#9, 357.3) but I don’t think they want a 35-31 game. That’s because as nice of a surprise as Warner has been, they have only 4 passing touchdowns, besting only Baltimore and Chicago which is bad company to be in. The Vikings can also run the ball and join Denver and San Diego as the only teams in the top 10 in yardage for rushing and passing. They also lead the NFL in yards per carry (5.1) by a foot, which in this case is a lot. Better yet, even though their rookie Moore has been on fire it looks like Williams and Bennett are available if he struggles. The Giants can also run the ball with a 4.7 average (#5) and seven scores (#7) meaning a slugfest seems inevitable. It appears the defenses will level the obvious advantage that Minnesota’s offense has because the Vikings give up a lot more yards (#29, 360.5) than the Giants (#14, 327.5) and get scorched through the air (#30, 264.8). Both teams rank at the bottom in run defense when yards per carry is concerned with the Vikings (4.8, 3rd worst) slightly worse than New York (4.7, 6th) so don’t look at Minnesota’s run defense (#5, 95.7) and think they can stop Barber because they have already yielded 8 rushing scores (5th most). Meanwhile, the Giants have given up only 2 (2nd fewest) while Minnesota has scored just 2 (2nd fewest). That could be a factor because we all know teams would prefer to just run it in, meaning the Giants might be forcing a field goal or two. I know Warner has looked good (91.3 QB rating, #12 in NFL) but at some point he is going to melt down and in a hostile environment I could see him finally conceding a couple of interceptions. In a game with very few punts that is going to make all the difference: Minnesota 30, NY Giants 24

Cincinnati (2-4) @ Tennessee (2-5): pick TEN -3/under 40.5

Instead of two teams battling for a playoff spot, this is desperation time for both sides. I once again had high hopes for the Bengals, taking them to win a weak division at 9-7 but a generally tough schedule has been their undoing. The Jets, Ravens, Steelers and Broncos all have winning records and thanks to their MNF win last week they are 1-3 in those games. The killer might have been their loss in Cleveland because at 3-3 they would be a lot more confident. I didn’t expect the Titans to be good although I did pick them to go 9-7, but this bad? They are 0-3 at home where they typically dominate and have already lost 4 games by 10+ points so it isn’t as though a play or two could turn the tide. Throwing out their 48-27 bombing of Green Bay on MNF they have yet to score over 17 points and otherwise average just 12.7 points per game. They sorely miss McCareins and Calico has been hurt for most of the season, crippling their passing game. It got worse when McNair had to miss two games and his 4 interceptions sealed their fate against Houston. Now their leading rusher Chris Brown is banged up and the offense looks just about hopeless. Running has been their bread and butter (#8, 129.4) with 4.8 yards per carry (#2) but when the passing game falls apart we all know that teams cheat towards the line to fill those gaps. However, we are talking about the worst run defense (154.2) in the NFL that gives up 4.6 yards per rush (9th highest) so it might not matter. Surprisingly the Titans are even worse at 4.7 (6th highest) and have given up 7 touchdowns on the ground (9th highest). Now the Bengals need Rudi Johnson to shake off an inconsistent start and repeat last week’s 119 yards. They have run him 22-24 times in all but one contest so you can expect at least 100 yards out of him if not more. Both teams have weak passing offenses overall, but neither has a good secondary either. Tennessee has allowed 12 passing scores (4th highest) and Cincinnati 10 (9th highest). It might boil down to which secondary makes the big play with an interception. Tennessee has an 8-7 edge in picks, while each offense has thrown 9 so you can expect a couple this week. I think this has the makings of a sloppy game and one with a ton of running which means it will feature limited possessions. Graham showed some leg connecting from 53 yards out, and in a game of field position he figures to give them an edge over old man Anderson who probably can’t connect outside 43. I think Brown is the better runner of the two, and faces a lesser run defense when you really look at it. Then it is Palmer vs. McNair and the experience and toughness is obviously an advantage to the Titans there. It might not be a season saving win, but it will heal some wounds and earn a little pride: Tennessee 20, Cincinnati 13

Green Bay (3-4) @ Washington (2-4): pick GB -1.5/over 40

This is another game between teams trying to stay alive in the playoff chase, and the loser will be in a very tough position. Riddle me this, at what point does Gibbs pull the plug on Brunell? His team has a high of 18 in points scored with an average of 14. Their gutsy defense has a high of 21 and an average of just 15.83 (#5). The teams ahead of them in that category (with an average of 14.8) are a combined 21-4 so obviously offense (#27, 280.0) is the problem. All of their losses have come by a touchdown or less. Enter the Packers who have just pasted the Lions (38-10) and Cowboys (41-20) and I think you see the problem coming. This is a classic meeting of Green Bay’s offense (#2, 399.1) and Washington’s defense (#1, 234.2) to see if the irresistible force can get by the immovable object. Teams have converted only 23.5% of their third downs against this Redskins team, fewest in the NFL by far, and none of the 4 fourth downs they attempted. Meanwhile, the Packers lead the NFL in third down conversions (51.6%) and have punched through 71.4% of their fourth downs. It has been a tough week personally for Favre, but he gets a break now that star rookie safety Sean Taylor will miss the game after his drunk driving incident. The Packers can throw the ball (#4, 274.7) and score through the air (16 touchdowns, #3) and although Washington does limit teams in yardage (#3, 147.5) they have been thrown at just 26.8 times per game (3rd fewest). For my money this is the most crucial battle and I don’t see Walker and Driver being shut down by Smoot and Springs without deep help now that 2002 fifth round pick Andre Lott (no relation to Ronnie by blood or play) with zero career interceptions steps in. The Packers can also run the ball, and have 50 first downs that way (#4) and solid yardage figures (#12, 124.4). However, against the #1 run defense (86.7) that gives up only 3.1 yards per rush (#1) it won’t be so easy. Green Bay is more likely to run screen plays, and with stud linebacker Arrington out for the Redskins those plays will be very successful. The next question is if Washington can move the ball. If you take away Brunell’s 325 yards against Dallas he averages just 117 yards per start. That is terrible. No NFL team has completed a fewer percentage of passes (51.1%) and with teams like Chicago starting Grossman and Quinn this season that is saying something. Fortunately Green Bay’s secondary (#14, 222.6) has already been touched up for an NFL high 14 scores and probably wishes they hadn’t traded McKenzie and Anderson away. The other threat is Portis because has gotten the ground game (#15, 118.5) going, but the average (3.8, #27) is still low and only Buffalo has fewer than their 2 rushing scores. He should find it easy to run on the Packers, who give up 4.6 yards per rush (9th highest) and have given up 7 touchdowns (9th most). However, with Grady Jackson back in the lineup they held weak running Dallas to 66 yards on 16 carries (4.1). With Arrington and Taylor out, I could actually see this game posting a high score. I like Portis to keep his team in it with a few long runs and by keeping Favre on the sidelines. I also like Favre to give the Packers an early lead that they won’t relinquish by punishing that weakened secondary. In the end it’s a win for Kerry unless a trend that has lasted 70 years is broken: Green Bay 24, Washington 17

Baltimore (4-2) @ Philadelphia (6-0): pick BAL +8.5/under 39

With everyone focusing on the Patriots and their record breaking streak on the line in Pittsburgh this one has been overshadowed. The Eagles have won 7 regular season games in a row, and if not for an unlikely 31-28 loss to San Francisco their string would sit at 17. This is a team on a 18-3 run including the playoffs and I don’t think anyone has noticed. I suppose people would rather talk about Owens shunning the Ravens after he was traded there and refused to report. Their string of 10+ point wins (5 this year, 6 overall regular season) came to an end last week when they failed to turn a 21-10 lead into a rout and wound up in overtime before winning 34-31 in Cleveland. It is probably worth noting that at the same venue on opening day Baltimore lost to them 20-3. The following week they wasted Pittsburgh 30-13, but that win almost doesn’t count given that it came against Maddox. Their other wins are over Cincinnati (2-4) Washington (2-4) and Buffalo (1-5) so don’t put them in the category with the Eagles based on their record. Philly has already beaten 3 teams with at least 4 wins on the season and did so by an average of two touchdowns. Like the last pick, this is the Philadelphia offense (#4, 386.7) against the Baltimore defense (#7, 288.8) which hasn’t dominated as much as they are used to. They also haven’t faced a good offense other than the Chiefs, who put up 27 points against them. A telling stat here might be what the teams do on the critical third down plays. Even with all of their success the Eagles are just 38.2% (#14) while the Ravens at 35.9% (#13) aren’t perfect at stopping teams either. With Westbrook out, Philly has to run the veteran Levens who was out of football earlier this season. Their running game (#20, 108.5) had already been down, but the average (4.7) ranks #5 in the NFL. They certainly won’t get close to that with Levens against a Baltimore run defense (#7, 100.3) that gives up just 3.4 yards per rush (#2). That is important because it also frees up a defender to double team Owens. Philadelphia has killed in the passing game (#2, 278.2) with 13 scores (#4) and just 3 interceptions (3rd fewest). Now they face a prepared Baltimore secondary (#9, 188.5) that is getting something out of Deion Sanders. With just 5 touchdowns allowed (#5) 10 interceptions (#1) and quarterbacks completing just 53.4% of their passes (#2) they are the best overall unit in the NFL. The question is if Chris McAlister can lock down in man coverage against Owens early in the game and be successful. If he can, this is going to be a low scoring game. That’s because we know Baltimore’s offense is horrible (#31, 248.7) and this season the passing (last, 107.0) has been even worse while the rushing (#3, 141.7) is off slightly as well. That figure also takes a hit because Jamal Lewis sits out again with his suspension leaving Chester Taylor to carry the load. He was pretty good last week with 21 carries for 89 yards (4.2 average) against a tough Buffalo defense though. The Eagles have been uncharacteristically soft on defense (#20, 340.2) but a lot of that comes from being ahead big in games. They will allow teams to chew up yardage in front of them in favor of keeping the clock moving and avoiding the big touchdown. Minus their starting corners from last year their pass defense (#21, 226.8) has taken a big hit and it hasn’t helped that pass rushing DE Kalu is out, but I expect Johnson to call plenty of blitzes to shake up Boller. Against the run they were finally attacked last week, which I certainly saw coming because they give up 4.9 yards per rush (#31). Suggs and Green combined for 142 yards on 29 carries and scored twice. First of all, I think both of those guys are slightly better than Taylor and second they were fresh throughout the game by alternating. I sure can’t see Taylor doing all of that damage by himself and Musa Smith (6 carries for 11 yards) was shut down last week. Overall I love Baltimore to hang tough by playing solid defense and score with a few 14 play 70 yard drives ending in a field goal. I can see them running for 4 yards on first down, throwing a screen for 3 yards and then maybe running again for a first down with regularity. However, they have no home run threat. Owens will make some plays regardless of the coverage, and McNabb might need to improvise with a little rushing. Neither is going to post big numbers, but it is enough to win the game: Philadelphia 20, Baltimore 13

Atlanta (5-2) @ Denver (5-2): pick DEN -6/over 38.5

Talk about two teams in shellshock. The Falcons gave up an NFL record 8 rushing scores during their 56-10 loss in Kansas City while the Broncos were embarrassed on national television at Cincinnati during a 23-10 defeat that easily could have been 37-10. At least Denver gets to return home for the rematch of Super Bowl XXXIII. Right now the Falcons are firmly in “hang on” mode with still a two game lead in the division filled with 3 losing teams. The trouble is that they haven’t played a game yet against the two chasing them so that lead could vanish in a hurry. They can afford to lose this game, but certainly don’t want to go into their bye week with another blowout loss. Denver is almost in the same boat. The Chargers are a game back, but they are not a real threat to stay in the race, while they are 2 ½ games up on last year’s champ Kansas City. Their schedule is pretty easy with only two winners (San Diego, Indianapolis) left. This game is pretty easy to figure out because Denver runs the ball effectively (#2, 147.6) although for only 4.3 yards per carry (#12) and 3 touchdowns (6th fewest). Atlanta’s run defense (#9, 102.6) obviously isn’t the same without Rod Coleman at tackle. Denver’s passing against the Atlanta secondary is a wash, but why throw the ball when you can run it? The real question is if Vick can keep his team in the game. He was awful last week and their passing has been terrible (#31, 148.1) with only 4 touchdowns all season (3rd fewest). They have made a living on the ground (#3, 143.1) with a 4.8 average per rush (#2). They will have to this week because this Broncos secondary (#2, 144.7) is unforgiving now that Bailey and Lynch are around. The run defense (#4, 93.9) isn’t too shabby either with a 3.7 average allowed (#8). I have a sick stomach thinking Atlanta really wakes up in this game, but the numbers say otherwise. Droughns is going to kill this defense although you never know if Denver might lay off the chop blocks for a week with all the heat from the MNF incident. Will Vick turn back into the running threat and go wild for 120 yards on the ground? I could see him doing that against this defense, and I would like to see more out of Duckett who posted 24 carries for 108 yards combined against the Chargers and Panthers. They need all the help they can get. Overall I just don’t see the Falcons stopping the run all of a sudden after getting pounded by the Chiefs. At home maybe, but not on the road so Vick makes some plays and keeps them close: Denver 27, Atlanta 17

Carolina (1-5) @ Seattle (3-3): pick SEA -7.5/over 39

In my season preview I said that worst case the Panthers might be 2-5 after a tough opening schedule and out of the mix. At this point that is best case for them. For a team that lived by the close win last year, they aren’t getting the chance this time around. Only their 20-17 loss in Denver has been decided by under 10 points and they have already lost 4 times by an average of 15. Now they get a Seahawks team desperate to get on track, especially on defense. After giving up just 23 points in their first 15 quarters of play (6.13 per game) they have allowed 78 in their last 9 (34.67 per game) and are spiraling with a three game skid. Now they face a crippled Carolina offense that is without their two best rushers and top receiver. Delhomme blames himself for the team’s poor start, and yes the passing game has been mediocre (#19, 204.3) although Colbert has done well in Smith’s absence. The problem is 10 interceptions (3rd most) and a dreadful 56.6% of their passes finding a Panther (#25). The Seattle secondary is deceivingly better than their yardage figures (#12, 207.2) because they have allowed just 6 touchdowns (#8) and have an NFL high 10 picks. That’s a bad match-up already given how much they will have to pass if they want to win. Their ground game was already in the bottom half (#22, 104.3) with Foster and Davis getting work, but now with Hoover I don’t see them doing damage against a good Seattle run defense (#8, 100.5). This puts a ton of pressure on a Carolina defense (#10, 315.3) playing a long, long way from home and facing a 1-6 start. One thing Seattle needs to work on is their passing game (#12, 225.3) and they are hoping Jerry Rice is a field coach and positive locker room influence on Koren Robinson who has a four game suspension looming over his head. They go up against a good secondary (#5, 176.8) that has given up an NFL low 3 scores. Alexander is a touchdown machine, but the running game (#16, 118.3) hasn’t been spectacular. That could change this week against a Carolina team that has been run on (#28, 138.5) a lot (32.3 rushes against, 4th most) this season. I think this is the classic case of a team getting well at home after a rough two game road trip. It is also about a team fighting for pride, but doing so under really tough circumstances. The Panthers will be a good team next year when they reassemble an offensive line and get their runners and receivers back in place. A top 10 draft pick will do wonders as well: Seattle 31, Carolina 10

New England (6-0) @ Pittsburgh (5-1): pick PIT +3/under 42

I don’t think many people would have thought that Roethlisberger would have a better QB rating (100.1) than Brady (95.3) but that has been the case so far. The Steelers have slugged their way past a bunch of struggling teams so far, as their wins have come over teams with a combined 10-17 record against the rest of the NFL. That might be okay if they were doing in impressively, but 11 points is their highest margin of victory and they really haven’t rolled over anyone. For the Patriots, that’s business as usual because they always win close and ugly. At least they have beaten three competitive teams in Indianapolis, Seattle and the Jets although all of them came at home. They do possess a strong history here including the 24-17 win that catapulted them to their first Super Bowl victory. Personally I thought adding Dillon would do more for their offense (#11, 347.8) but they are about the same as last year. That’s certainly not his fault because the ground game (#11, 126.5) has really picked up steam. It is the passing game (#14, 221.3) that has been stagnant without guys like Branch and Brown in the mix. Patten and Givens have piled up nice yardage numbers (133 combined per game) but are on pace to catch a total of 117 passes. Heck, Brown caught 101 himself their first Super Bowl season. They do have 11 touchdowns (#5) and have taken just 6 sacks (3rd fewest). The lesser competition has been a feast for this Pittsburgh defense (#6, 288.7) and their secondary (#7, 185.3) should have no trouble containing the Patriot receivers. They also have 16 sacks (#7) so expect them to blitz Brady. The run defense is back also (#10, 103.3) and Dillon should be held under 100 yards. At Heinz Field I really like this unit to step up to the task. While Big Ben has piled up the wins, the yardage (#25, 179.8) has been low. Burress complained that the refs don’t call chucks on the Patriot defenders this season and that was probably a good thing to draw attention to if it opens him up. Most teams have had to throw a lot against New England (35.2 attempts, 8th most) which has hurt their yardage totals (#17, 215.2) but that’s not the whole story. They allow quarterbacks to complete just 54% of their passes (#3) with 4 touchdowns (#2) against 7 interceptions (#7) and those are the categories that count. However, this season the Steelers have gone back to the run and boy it has worked (#5, 135.5) out well. Staley is probably the top free agent addition in the NFL at this point and he combines with Bettis nicely. Minus a pair of line starters from last season the Pats are softer against the run (#14, 110.8) but have allowed just one run over 20 yards. This game might be pretty close, but when you start talking that way how can you go against Brady when his opposition is a rookie without a big win? Sure, going down to Dallas last week was nice for Big Ben, but this is a team on a huge roll. It will take a lot to beat them, namely the greatest show on turf next week: The Steelers might very well be playing both of the Super Bowl representatives back to back with Philly due in next week. They might get that one, but they won’t win here: New England 21, Pittsburgh 19

Oakland (2-5) @ San Diego (4-3): pick OAK +6/over 45

The Raiders had a chance to turn their season around with a win last week, but trailing 24-19 their rookie Francis fumbled that opportunity away. Now they stand pretty much on the brink of elimination with any loss over the next four weeks. Suddenly the Chargers have turned things around with a pair of home wins over teams from the AFC South and road victories in Houston and Carolina. It’s trick or treat time for them because losing this game puts a big dent in their playoff push, especially since they go up to Oakland in three weeks. Their new look receiving corps got the job done last week as McCardell stepped off the curb to pick up 65 yards and hurt the Raiders for two short touchdowns in the Super Bowl while with Tampa Bay. Shaw should make a contribution this week as well. Brees has a season high of 227 yards passing, but it doesn’t matter when you have just 3 interceptions in 7 games and four where you don’t turn it over at all. I’m still trying to figure out how Oakland has recently spent 3 first round picks in the secondary (not including Woodson) and can’t shut down the pass (#15, 212.7) with 11 touchdowns allowed so far (5th most). They also can’t stop a soul on third down (42.2%, #27). It looks like their revamped defensive line can’t stop the run (#23, 124.3) but no team has had the ball run against them more (34.1) and they allow just 3.6 yards per rush (#4). Tomlinson is slowed by an injury, but fired up to play in this game. The San Diego rushing attack (#9, 128.3) has been solid with 11 scores (#2) and an NFL high 9 runs over 20 yards. Overall this offense could do some things, but won’t move the ball at will. For the Raiders, they should bring their booing fans because Collins responded by leading a pair of drives that ended in touchdown passes after fans called for Tui. For the season the passing game has produced (#10, 232.4) and Porter (113 yards) had his first really big game of the season including his only touchdown last week. It’s the NFL high 11 interceptions that have killed this team. If Collins throws 35 balls (his average is 39.5 as a starter) it translates to 1.77 picks so count on two. He could throw that many because this Chargers team has faced 37.0 per game (4th highest) which has resulted in a lot of yards given up (#28, 247.7) and a lot of completed passes (65.6%, #29). If those numbers hold, Collins goes 24 of 37 and picks up 270 yards passing, so the difference is turning it over or protecting it. Surprisingly, Turner has not shown a commitment to running the football (#29, 89.1) and no team has fewer rushes per game (21.7) even though no running back has lost a fumble all season. He has also wasted Zereoue, who is averaging 90 total yards over the past four games despite having just 18.5 touches a game. They need to get him the ball 25-30 times and see if they get between 120 and 130 yards as they should. This might not be the best chance to do that against a tough run defense (#2, 90.0) that gives up only 3.6 yards per carry (#4) and joins the Ravens as the unit not to give up a run over 20 yards. I think this is going to be one of the most exciting games of the week. I could see it going back and forth. The Chargers will get over in the running game, while the Raiders throw the ball at will. It should be a good old fashioned AFC West shootout. In the end, turnovers and penalties always do in the Silver and Black, much to my chagrin: San Diego 28, Oakland 24

San Francisco (1-5) @ Chicago (1-5): pick CHI -1.5/over 36

After a week off thanks to World Series game 2, ESPN’s broadcast returns with this? These teams were both 7-9 last season, but I guess a Chiefs-Colts AFC playoff game rematch or Ravens-Eagles game featuring defending division champs wasn’t appealing. The 49ers have been mostly competitive this season, but are starting to lose too many players. The defense is without Plummer, Rumph, Carter and Peterson meaning they are going with two new starters at corner, have less of a pass rush and no dominating linebacker. Newberry is gone at center from a unit that lost two other starters in the off-season. That is a lot to overcome, and building a 14-0 lead in New York against the Jets was impressive in lieu of those injuries. Of course they gave up 22 unanswered and lost, but probably gained some confidence along the way. Now they draw a feisty Bears team that shows up big time at home, where they have yet to win this season but have played well nonetheless. Quinn is done at quarterback after throwing for just 112 yards on 31 pass attempts in the last two games combined. The rookie Krenzel replaced him in the 19-7 loss at Tampa Bay last week and will start this one. He knows a thing or two about winning after leading Ohio State to a national title in 2002, beating current 49ers backup Ken Dorsey (then with Miami, FL) in the process. He will be asked to jump start a sagging offense (#29, 264.2) and has averaged just 11.5 offensive points per game. At least they finally have a little bit of a ground game with Jones (#18, 115.0) but so far the 49ers have done well against the run (#17, 114.5) with a 3.7 average allowed (#8) although they have given up 10 scores (#31) and 43 first downs (3rd most among teams who have had a bye). The secondary has also allowed 10 touchdowns (9th most) and it is anyone’s guess how Krenzel will do against a new set of corners. It looks like weakness against weakness to me. Despite losing a ton of talent on offense, San Francisco has been able to move the ball (#14, 342.5) but Barlow has been a big disappointment running the ball (#28, 89.2) behind the new look line. Only 5 teams have a worse rushing average (3.8) and of those teams (Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Houston and Miami) only the Bills have a decent runner. Chicago does have a weakness on run defense (#30, 139.3) but teams have run 33.2 times per game (3rd most) and their average rush allowed is 4.2 (#16) with only two rushing scores allowed. I have been amazed at San Francisco’s ability to still throw the ball (#8, 253.3) after losing their starting receivers, tight end and quarterback, but the system works. Lloyd, Wilson and Conway haven’t been spectacular individually but are on pace to total close to 2,000 yards as a unit. Johnson (484 yards) has been a huge blessing after missing last year due to injury. They face a middle of the road secondary (#13, 208.8) that is of course without their best player in the form of Mike Brown and they also miss Ogunleye who rushes the passer at end. This is really a coin flip game. For some reason I think Krenzel is going to seize this opportunity and play out of his mind. With all else being equal, that could be the difference in this game. It isn’t as though he has any targets other than maybe Terrell, but the 49ers are dead in the secondary and will have to pay attention to Jones in the running game. I think home field does make a difference here, and it’s a Halloween treat for the fans: Chicago 21, San Francisco 17

Miami (1-6) @ NY Jets (5-1): pick NYJ -6.5/under 37

Another splendid primetime event this week and ABC has to be thrilled that the Dolphins spanked the Rams 31-14 last week to avoid coming in 0-7. In that game they scored as many offensive touchdowns (4) as they had in their six losses combined. Now they face a mentally drained Jets team that has to be disappointed after coming up just short at New England last week. With only 4 of their final 10 opponents left possessing a winning mark, New York needs to start winning decisively. Their largest win has been by 8 points and average margin of victory is 6.2 points. Part of the problem is their passing game (#16, 214.0) which has produced just 5 touchdowns (5th fewest) although no team has fewer interceptions (2) and only one has a better completion rate (69.2%). The problem is that Moss and newly acquired McCareins have both fall asleep, combining for just 32 receptions, 503 yards and no touchdowns. That boils down to 5 catches for 84 yards per game, which should be what Moss alone averages. This is also a duo that had 17 touchdowns last season. Now they face the best secondary (143.6) that just held Holt, one of the top three receivers in the game, to 1 catch for 4 yards. That forces a lot of teams to run on Miami (31.7, 5th most) which has led to some yardage (#27, 130.6) and of course they trail most of the time. Martin is enjoying a resurgence on the ground (#6, 132.3) and the Jets have 51 first downs (#3) rushing, so I expect them to attack there as much as possible. Jordan also might get into the action as a change of pace. When the Dolphins get the ball, they can’t throw it (#26, 178.1) as they have an NFL high 11 picks, but they also can’t run it with their league worst 76.3 yard average and bottom of barrel 3.1 yards per rush. It took Morris 28 carries to get 83 yards last week (3.0). The Jets are in the middle of pack as far as run and pass defense go, but this is at home against a weak offense. In their last two home games they have allowed just 14 points each and perhaps more importantly held the Bills and 49ers scoreless in 6 of 8 quarters. In the first meeting they settled for field goals, and needed a 4-1 turnover advantage to win 17-9. This time they get at least two touchdowns and win the turnover battle. I expect a rousing win in front of a national audience: NY Jets 24, Miami 9