NBA Predictions 2004-2005
I don’t know a lot about the NBA, but that’s not going to stop me from making picks. The biggest winners in the new realignment have to be Minnesota, Miami and probably New York. The Timberwolves lost 4 teams from their division that made last year’s playoffs with records averaging 51-31, and now instead of dealing with perennially tough San Antonio and improved Dallas they only have revamped Denver to worry about. The Heat was an even bigger winner. They draw a division made up of 3 teams that lost at least 54 games last year and averaged a 25-57 record and also have expansion Charlotte to beat up. That’s a ready made division title for Shaq’s new team. The Knicks seem poised to take the new Atlantic division after Miami’s departure and New Jersey’s exodus of talent Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia were all between 33 and 36 wins last season.
The biggest loser might be New Orleans. After finishing 41-41 last year and taking the #5 seed in the East playoffs they now find themselves in a western conference division comprised of four teams that finished with 50+ teams. Good luck guys, you’ll need it. At first glance, here’s how I see the divisions:
ATLANTIC:
New York: They still have a lot of talent, and in a division without a proven power there is no reason they can’t utilize their roster to skate to 43-47 wins and a #3 seed in the playoffs.
New Jersey: As long as they have Jason Kidd I believe they are a playoff team in the East. With key players gone others will step into the void and excel, leaving this team down but still in the postseason picture as the #6 seed.
Boston: It looks a little like they got mugged in the Lakers trade unless Payton steps up for one last solid season, but Pierce has the ability to take this team on his back and carry them to the necessary 40 wins for a #7 position.
Toronto: Vince should be traded because the team is nothing with him so they should find out what they would be able to do without him. Heck, the Texas Rangers made a great run when they dealt Alex Rodriguez.
Philadelphia: Iverson is just not enough for this team anymore, and his supporting cast is terrible.
CENTRAL:
Detroit: I don’t know how much they will get from the oft-injured McDyess, but with a full season out of Rasheed Wallace they are likely to win more than the 54 games they did last year, which is clearly good enough for the top seed.
Indiana: It is looking like a hard luck #4 seed for the Pacers who will be griping about the alignment when they have to face the Pistons on the road in the semifinals while other teams face much easier paths.
Cleveland: Call it a hunch, but I think they are ready to step up and make a move. I have them tabbed for the #5 seed in a bit of a surprise.
Milwaukee: Does anyone really know who plays for the Bucks anymore?
Chicago: Their high school projects have been big busts. It is time for them to move on.
SOUTHEAST:
Miami: Shaq’s club might not lose a divisional game all season and won’t be tested until the East finals against Detroit, which will be on the road because the Heat are the #2 seed.
Washington: The former Warriors Jamison and Arenas will boost them to the #8 seed in the playoffs, but not necessarily to a winning record as we found out last season when half the field was 41-41 or worse.
Atlanta: Not enough to make a significant run.
Orlando: Tracy McGrady is gone, and with him the heart of this team.
Charlotte: Jason Kapono is their starting small forward. He wasn’t even that good at UCLA. This team might lose 70 games, or more.
EAST PLAYOFFS:
Detroit 3-0 over Washington
Miami 3-1 over Boston
New Jersey 3-2 over New York
Indiana 3-1 over Cleveland
Detroit 4-2 over Indiana
Miami 4-1 over New Jersey
Detroit 4-2 over Miami
SOUTHWEST:
Dallas: The addition of Dampier finally gives them a decent center, allowing Nowitzki to do even more damage. In the regular season this squad will pile up wins en route to the #2 seed.
Houston: McGrady and Yao is a tough combo, and whichever team actually does finish second in this division will be one that no one wants to play in round 1. I give them the #4 seed.
San Antonio: I simply feel like the rest of the conference keeps catching up to them and they don’t do enough to improve, meaning they are the best #6 seed in NBA history.
Memphis: They might have overachieved last year, but I still think they have enough to take the final playoffs spot.
New Orleans: No chance whatsoever for them to make any kind of run in this division, although they did go 11-7 against the West last season.
NORTHWEST:
Minnesota: Garnett desperately wants a championship, and with the Lakers falling off this could be a great chance for him to get one. They catch a break losing Houston and Dallas from the division, and will glide to the top seed.
Denver: Picking up Martin gives them credibility and possibly the most well rounded starting five in the league. I like them to post the #5 seed and play a rousing series against the Rockets in the opening round.
Utah: Adding Boozer was nice, but you need to do more than that to compete in the West.
Portland: It looks like they are entering the black hole, but there are still a few guys who can get them out of the division cellar.
Seattle: There is not much farther this team can fall with very little on the bench and a very weak starting lineup.
PACIFIC:
Sacramento: They have to be happy with the alignment because although two weak teams left, now the Lakers are not nearly as formidable. Still, they are the weakest of the division winners and the #3 seed.
LA Lakers: I think this is a better team than most predict it to be, but when you lose the premiere center it has to cost you 8-10 wins. That puts them at the #7 seed.
Golden State: I believe Montgomery will have them sniffing the playoffs until late in the season and will get them into the dance next season.
Phoenix: Going nowhere fast and I don’t think getting a much older of version of Nash back will help them as much as some think it will. Nevertheless, in a tough West I do expect at least 38 wins.
LA Clippers: With as many lottery draft picks as they get, you’d think someday they would get good.
WEST PLAYOFFS:
Minnesota 3-1 over Memphis
LA Lakers 3-1 over Dallas
San Antonio 3-1 over Sacramento
Houston 3-2 over Denver
Minnesota 4-3 over Houston
San Antonio 4-2 over LA Lakers
Minnesota 4-3 over San Antonio
NBA FINALS
Minnesota 4, Detroit 3
Subtlety is not one of my strengths