With my back firmly against the wall, I delivered the goods. Picking winners I went 10-4 and trail hardly any “expert” pickers other than Dave Golberg who I’m hunting down. Against the spread I served up an 11-3 week and moved back into the money (58-54-4) which is more than many others can say. Just another plus performance on the over/under at 8-5-1 (69-45-2) leaving me on average +3 for any given week. I hit on one of my two upsets (9 of 21) so nothing spectacular there. The odds makers were also 10-4 straight up (73-42-1) but just 8-6 against the spread (53-58-5) so I widened my lead there. As I predicted, the over was going to start winning out and this week had a 10-3 edge with one push. For the season under still leads 59-55 with two pushes.

Our assembled picker consensus was just 8-6 picking winners, with the notable upset losers being Denver (39-1) and Minnesota (32-7) while the rest were in the area of contested (27-13 to 21-19). Against the spread it was a dismal 7-7 showing, but the over/under saved the week at 9-4-1. The closest the consensus came to any pick was Seattle beating Carolina 23-15 with an actual of 23-17.
This week would seem to be pretty bad with winning teams Atlanta and Jacksonville on a bye along with Green Bay and Tennessee who made last year’s playoffs. That would be wrong, and I think 10 of 14 games will be entertaining. Obviously the big one is the Keystone State battle with Philadelphia visiting Pittsburgh. Can the Steelers knock off another unbeaten? Speaking of the New England team they took down, now they travel to St. Louis in a Super Bowl rematch that should be great. The ESPN game is Cleveland at Baltimore in the return of Jamal Lewis and should be hotly contested. If Moss can hit the field on MNF expect a ton of scoring when Minnesota visits Indianapolis. Those aside, four of my power poll bottom 8 teams in the league square off and sometimes those games are the best ones to watch. For the record those are Oakland at Carolina and Arizona at Miami. In another storyline, Jerry Rice returns to Candlestick Park where he will face his original team as the Seahawks try to stay on track against the 49ers. Heck, I even think Kansas City at Tampa Bay will be a good one as the Bucs try to slow down that Chiefs offense.

After my big week I’m not sitting back with 7 underdogs covering and 3 winning straight up. I also have the under jumping back on top 9-5 although I am not all that confident in my choices this week with the status of several key offensive players (Dillon, Stephen Davis, Randy Moss) in question.

NY Jets (6-1) @ Buffalo (2-5): pick NYJ -3/under 36.5

New York is coming off a blowout win on MNF, but they had better be prepared in this one or they will find themselves in big trouble. That’s because McGahee has kick started this Bills offense, and incidentally how in the world did they score 31 offensive points with just 209 total yards and not a single takeaway? I supposed 101 penalty yards by Arizona helped, as did a 16.4 average on punt returns by Clements. The AFC East is a division where games are mostly tightly contested and running the ball usually determines the winner. The Jets got 115 yards from both their starting and backup running back last week and 275 in all. That moved them to #2 in average yards (152.7) while they have 10 scores (#4) 65 first downs (#2) and a 4.8 yard average (#3). Their strength will be tested by Buffalo who has stopped the run well (#4, 97.0) and gives up only 3.5 yards per rush (#2) while having allowed only 3 rushing scores (#3). It might be a good thing that Jordan got some work in last week because they might need to throw a different look at Buffalo in order to be successful. They will need to because their passing game has been a huge disappointment. Last week only 6 passes were caught by wide receivers although they did manage 144 yards out of those catches, but the touchdown by McCareins was the first by a starting receiver all season for the Jets. Their fullback Jerald Sowell leads the team with 26 receptions, which is about all you need to know. The Bills have a healthy secondary (#5, 169.1) that has only allowed quarterbacks to complete 57.7% (#11) of their throws. This is more bad news for the usually very efficient Pennington who has connected on 68.2% (#3) of his passes. If the offense fails for New York, they can still count on their defense (#9, 313.7) to carry them. Buffalo has struggled to throw the ball all season (#27, 166.3) and could be without slot receiver Josh Reed leaving them one less option. The Jets are very ordinary in the secondary (#14, 212.1) but attack the quarterback as evidenced by their 20 sacks (#3). In case you have forgotten, Bledsoe is not very mobile. The only way to slow down that pass rush is to run the ball and it appears that McGahee might have them on the right track in that department although mixing Henry in sure wouldn’t hurt because they have very different styles. The Jets appear to have a good run defense (#8, 101.6) but teams have mostly trailed them and run just 24.0 times per game (6th fewest) and their average yardage allowed sits in the middle at 4.2 (#16). I think we are headed to a black and blue game, and the Jets had better protect the football and limit the penalties. They lead the NFL at +12 this season while the Bills sit at #23 with a -4 which explains the won/loss record for each team. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Jets win the turnover battle in this game though. Another factor is special teams, and the Bills got great output from both their punt and kickoff returns last week. If the Jets come in overconfident, they could easily lose this game but I think they just take a scare and pull it out: NY Jets 16, Buffalo 10

Kansas City (3-4) @ Tampa Bay (2-5): pick KC -3/under 44.5

The Chiefs started out the season with just 105 points scored and a 1-4 record, leaving people wondering what happened to their offense. That question was answered in their last two wins when they posted 101 points and got back into the playoff hunt. Now they face a generally tough Buccaneer defense that has been touched up on the road by Oakland (30-20 loss) and St. Louis (28-21 loss) but given up just 26 points in two home games. Overall we are looking at the #3 Kansas City offense (406.1) against the #3 Tampa Bay defense (266.1) but something tells me this game will be decided when the Bucs have the ball. They have a new spark for the passing game in the connection between Griese and the rookie Clayton. In his 3 starts Griese has completed 71% of his throws with 4 touchdowns and just 1 interception in 82 attempts. Clayton ranks #16 in yards per game at 72.1 and ahead of guys like Holt, Harrison, Coles, Burress and Toomer to name a few. The Chiefs have been punched around by teams throwing the ball (#22, 227.9) and have given up 14 touchdowns (4th most) but they do have 8 interceptions (#6) and opposing quarterbacks complete just 56.1% (#6) of their passes. Those are the critical stats in this one. Will Griese continue to be efficient and also protect the football? He has to if they are going to have a chance, but it might be hard if he is forced to throw 40 passes. That could be the case with their running game stuck in neutral (#28, 85.4) with a 3.5 yard average (#29). The job now rests squarely on the shoulders of Pittman who picked up 109 yards on 23 carries against the Bears, but he faces a much improved Kansas City run defense (#15, 112.0) over what they put out there early in the season. Overall I still think it will be a challenge for Tampa Bay to move the ball consistently, and they will really be counting on their defense to chip in with a touchdown on their own to stay alive. Teams should realize that Kansas City’s rapidly rising passing game (#9, 238.6) is mostly Holmes and Gonzalez, who combined for 207 yards and a pair of scores receiving last week. They face their stiffest test with a fast, athletic and top ranked Tampa Bay secondary (148.6) that has allowed only 14.1 passes to be completed per game with an NFL low 51.3%. They have the personnel to force the Chiefs into using targets other than their main threats. Ideally Kansas City would like to take their top ranked running game (167.6) with NFL highs in first downs (72) and touchdowns (17) and simply run them over. The typically solid up front Bucs are much softer this season against the run (#21, 117.6) this season although they have given up just 38 rushing first downs (#7). I think it comes down to whether or not the Bucs can force turnovers and take them to the house because they cannot win a 38-35 game. The last time the Chiefs came to Florida they walked away 22-16 losers in Jacksonville, but this time they win by a similar score and stay in the hunt: Kansas City 23, Tampa Bay 17

Philadelphia (7-0) @ Pittsburgh (6-1): pick PIT +1.5/under 44.5

Another game of the week at Heinz Field and everyone is wondering if the Steelers can do it again. Last week the truth is that they got a huge break with Dillon’s absence in the running game and top corner Law missing from the secondary early. They might get similar fortune if Westbrook is out, which is ironic given that the Eagles let Staley leave to join the Steelers. Think he might be fired up for this one? After winning their first 5 by an average of 14.8 points the Eagles have shown some chinks in their armor the past two weeks. The Ravens came in without really their three best players on offense in running back Lewis, tight end Heap and tackle Ogden but still wound up with 327 yards (29 more than the Eagles) and a matching 19 first downs. Boller also set a season high with 24 completions. The biggest key to this game has to be Pittsburgh running the ball (#4, 147.7) and coming off piling up 221 yards I think they are confident in that department even though they are tied for the lowest average (4.0) with Cleveland among the top 14 in yardage gained. That might not be such a concern against an Eagles team giving up 4.8 yards per rush (#31) and one that let backups Smith and Taylor average 4.5 last week. If they come out running successfully again, the visitors are in big trouble because as we saw they simply keep the opposing offense off the field. It also renders the Eagle blitz far less effective. You might be surprised to see how much the Philly secondary (#21, 225.0) has faded this season but losing your starting corners as free agents will do that, and so will facing the most passes per game (39.7) in the NFL. With quarterbacks dropping back 278 times against them this season, 25 sacks (#1) are going to happen as well. Roethlisberger’s season high is 25 throws, and at their rate they will bring him down twice, but my bet is that given his size they might not get him at all. During his five game stint he has only thrown for 191 yards per game, but has 7 scores against 2 picks while not throwing a ton of passes. Throwing out the slush fest in Miami, he has completed 76% of his throws over his last four starts and his quarterback rating is over 125 for the past two. I can definitely see the Steelers moving the ball in this game. The question now shifts to the Eagles, who have lit it up through the air (#4, 267.0) now that Thrash has been replaced by Owens, which I think is an upgrade don’t you? I wondered if his presence would make Pinkston and Mitchell more effective, and while I am disappointed that they haven’t caught more passes (27 combined) they do average 14.5 and 17.7 yards respectively. In other words, this is a team that gets it down the field. Will they do it against the impressive Steelers secondary (#9, 193.6) in hostile territory? They might have to because it doesn’t look like Westbrook will be able to go, leaving Mahe and Levens (17 carries for 62 yards against Baltimore) left to carry the load. That’s not going to cut it against a rugged Pittsburgh defense (#3, 89.3) that gives up just 3.7 yards per rush (#7) and completely stifled a backup last week in the form of Kevin Faulk (5 carries for 4 yards). When I opened this game up for discussion, I thought Philly would win. The more that I think about it, I don’t know how they can. If they are relying on passing the ball, they are going to run into the same problem that the Pats had last week and will probably wind up with around 20 minutes of possession. McNabb will get harassed and while maybe not sacked 4 times as Brady was he could be forced into throwing the ball away or worse yet tossing interceptions. I love the Steelers to capitalize on another injured player and unless Leftwich is back by week 13 they will get yet another gift victory. Looking at their schedule, I suddenly see 13-3 at least: Pittsburgh 23, Philadelphia 20

Arizona (2-5) @ Miami (1-6): pick MIA -3/under 34.5

After beating the Rams it is almost as if the Dolphins said “okay, we got our win, let’s go back to sucking”. The truth is that with these Cards plus the 49ers and Bills still on the schedule there is a chance for them to go 4-12 although a 1-15 finish would give them no worse than the #3 overall pick. I think they will be selecting Rodgers or Leinart if either junior comes out. My feeling is that Leinart will because he already has a national title and may get another one while Rodgers won’t because while they can finish top 5 that’s not the same. Their opponent this week reminded all of us that they still are not a good football team, even if they were extremely competitive in their first six contests. Boldin returned to action with 50 yard receiving, but his quarterback McCown completed only 37.5% of his throws and was sacked 3 times. This was his third game with 13 or fewer completions and he averages just 16. That’s probably why their passing game (#30, 158.0) is better than only the Bears and Ravens who have much bigger problems. The Dolphins don’t get thrown on very much (25.6, 2nd fewest) because teams are unsuccessful against their tough corners (#2, 150.2) and complete only 55.1% (#5) of their throws. Boldin is still working himself into shape, so don’t expect him to dominate this game. Somehow Emmitt Smith has kept the Cardinals going on the ground (#16, 111.9) but their average per rush (3.7, 6th worst) joins Washington’s 3.8 as the only ones under 4.0 for the top 21 in yards per game. The poor Miami defense has gotten pounded on the ground by teams protecting leads with teams running 32.9 times per game (4th most) so poor yardage (#30, 148.6) and average per rush (4.5, #20) can be expected by a worn down defense. Losing Seau for the season certainly won’t help. Emmitt is on pace for almost 1,200 yards rushing but I think Hambrick will be more of a factor in this game. He has 46 carries over the past four games and a decent 3.85 average. He is more suited to beat this defense. For Miami to move the ball, they have to throw it (#25, 178.5) and avoid interceptions, where they lead the NFL with 13. The Cards have a pretty good secondary (#12, 208.3) while allowing just 56.2% (#7) of passes to be completed with 8 touchdowns (#13). Those numbers against a team struggling to throw the ball start to look really good. They get better when a team can use a nickel package and blitz a lot given Miami’s inability to run the ball with their dead last attack (76.5) They are also dead last in average per rush (3.2) and first downs (27). Fortunately for them, teams have been able to run on Arizona (#23, 120.7) with a strong 4.5 average (#20) and last week they gave up their first two touchdowns on the ground in Buffalo. Former Bill Sammy Morris will face them this week, and he managed 48 yards on 11 carries last week although he saw limited work while they were getting blown out. I would have never thought an NFL game this season would come down to Morris or Hambrick being more effective on the ground, but this one should. Miami plays great defense at home, don’t kid yourself about that. They have allowed just 4 offensive touchdowns in four games (11.75 offensive points per game) and the Titans, Steelers, Jets and Rams aren’t bad offensive units. I see them really swarming McCown, who is likely to be replaced by a rookie next season. On another note, you better believe they will pursue a trade for Travis Henry who is up for sale in February. Those two changes could make this team a contender. For now, they are pretenders and when you break it down the Dolphins have been competitive for most of this season. They have played a few tough teams and here I see them really getting Morris going on the ground and utilizing Chambers and McMichael down the field for a relatively easy win: Miami 20, Arizona 12

Washington (2-5) @ Detroit (4-3): pick WAS +4/under 39

Apparently the Redskins don’t control who gets into the White House after all. They also don’t have a quarterback, which surprises me because I felt like Brunell would be better than this. His team failed to reach 20 points yet again, but Gibbs is sticking with him. The funny thing is that they appeared to with a Portis touchdown that was called back on a mysterious call and could have cost them a win. Now they get an up and down Detroit team that since week 2 has been alternating wins and losses. With a loss last week in Dallas, they are due for a win, and strangely enough this pattern would suit them just fine with a 9-7 finish and possible playoff spot. If that is going to happen, they need Roy Williams healthy and Kevin Jones to get the ball 20 times on the ground. With teams like Chicago, Baltimore and Miami out there it is still unreal for me to think about this being the worst offense (249.3) in the NFL. A lot of that is their inability to convert on third down where they are just 30.5% (#29). It sucks for Harrington that Rogers is out for the year and Williams is banged up, but he needs to get more out of Streets and Hakim. His last two games have been his first over 200 for the season (230 and 255) and his season high in completions is just 21. On the plus side, he has a touchdown in every game and 12 for the season, so as a team they rank #8 in that department. Now they face a stiff secondary (#4, 165.4) that picked off Favre 3 times last week and gets rookie Sean Taylor back after a one game suspension. So while Roy Williams didn’t face safety Roy Williams last week, he might get hit a few times by his fellow rookie in this one. If the Lions are going to continue having success, their ground game (#31, 76.6) has to get better. They have similar numbers as the Dolphins, only they weren’t left in the lurch by a star. Mariucci admits he didn’t run enough last week and since opening day when Jones got the rock 15 times he has just 42 total carries and a high of 13. It will be a tough week to implement that run more strategy because the Redskins have the #2 run defense (86.9) and give up an NFL low 3.1 yards per rush, leading the NFL by almost a half yard in that department. I know Detroit has been a nice surprise this season, but they are going to have a tough time moving the chains this week when you add it all up. The saving grace might be that the Redskins are no champs on offense. Their passing game (#28, 165.7) is even worse than Detroit’s and no team is even close to as bad in terms of completion percentage (51.9%). However, unlike the Redskins, the Lions have serious issues stopping the pass (#29, 253.3) with 11 touchdown passes allowed (#23). With Coles and Gardner, they have the weapons to make them pay. On the ground, Portis hasn’t lifted this team to new heights (#15, 113.1) and they are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry (#25) but a lot of that has to do with losing their tackle Jansen. Portis has averaged 114 total yards per game, but the team acquired him to score touchdowns and they have just 2 running the ball, tied for worst in the NFL with the likes of Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Miami where far inferior backs reside. Now he gets a tough run defense (#12, 107.4) that has allowed just 3.5 yards per rush (#2). In other words, we’re getting the top two run defenses out there in this game. I think the advantage lies with Portis though because he faces the weaker of the two units and is obviously a better back straight out. The passing games even up as well because Harrington faces a much stiffer defense. This game is going to be a flat out war, and field position is going to be huge. Third down conversions will also be big, and the Redskins are even worse in that department than the Lions with 30.1% (#30). To this point the Lions have gotten where they are by leading the NFL in turnover differential (+12) while the Redskins rank #22 in that department (-3). If Smoot and Springs are on their game this week, that number could change in a hurry. I am tempted to call an upset here, but teams with winning records playing at home typically make that extra play to win the game and this one falls into that category. It won’t be pretty, but they win: Detroit 20, Washington 17

Dallas (3-4) @ Cincinnati (2-5): pick CIN +1.5/over 43

Here are a couple of teams I seem to have a soft spot for. The Cowboys got really their first win over a quality team last week when they beat Detroit 31-21, but didn’t face Roy Williams. Down the road they get the Eagles twice, plus the Giants, Ravens and Seahawks on the road. Going 2-3 in those games will be tough, not to mention sweeping the Bears, Saints and Redskins at home which is no lock. In other words, this is a game they have to win, but fortunately for them the defense finally showed up last week. As for the Bengals, they had a real chance to earn momentum by beating the Titans, but instead became the first team to lose in Tennessee this season. Throwing everything else out, they face the Pats and Eagles on the road, games they seemingly can’t win so if they lose this game it is 8-8 best case scenario. When Carter was cut, Parcells showed confidence in Testaverde when others worried. Well, it has worked out because the Dallas passing (#7, 255.7) has been great and they rank #8 with 10 touchdown passes. They face a secondary with two corners that have ties to the Bay Area with James (former Raider) and O’Neal (former Cal Bear) and hasn’t been lit up for a lot of yards (#11, 202.0) but has given up 12 touchdowns (#26) and that’s with just 29.1 pass attempts per game (9th fewest). At least they will be familiar with new starter Quincy Morgan, formerly of the Browns. Last week it was the tight end Witten and Keyshawn who did almost all of the damage while Morgan missed the game with a bum hamstring. While they should be able to throw the ball, running it is more important and last week Parcells finally trusted George and wound up with 99 yards on 31 carries. As I said, it’s not the average, it’s controlling the clock and wearing a defense down, something he was great at in Tennessee. Now he gets the worst run defense in the NFL (155.4) and once giving up 4.6 yards per rush (7th highest) so expect him to be big. He also has some experience against this team from the old AFC Central. I see no problems with Dallas being successful on offense, but they will need to keep it up on defense. The Bengals are actually rung lower than the Cowboys on the rushing list (#24, 100.1) and a tick lower in average (3.9, #24) as well. Unlike most teams, however, the success of their lead back has little to do with their success. In the 4 games where he has 67 yards or less they are 1-3 and when he has 98 or more they are 1-2. More work makes a little difference because in games with 16-17 carries they are 0-2, but with 22+ they are 2-3. Expect around 30 in this one against the team giving up an NFL high 4.9 yards per rush. That will take a lot of pressure off Palmer in the passing game (#21, 190.7) that has just 5 touchdowns (#29) and 10 interceptions (5th most). Thus far Palmer has 5 games with a quarterback rating of 65.4 or lower, 4 games less than 200 yards passing and 3 without a touchdown in 7 starts. Last week he made good use of his weapons with three wide receivers picking up at least 55 yards receiving even without Warrick in the mix. This week he gets a middle of the road secondary (#17, 217.6) but a hefty 15 touchdowns (#30) against only 4 interceptions (6th fewest). The more I mull this over, it almost looks like a watered down version of Chiefs-Colts from last week. The Cowboys do well converting third downs (#5, 44.6%) while the Bengals are a shade below average (#19, 35.4%) while both are in the bottom half defensively, with the Bengals (#20, 38.7%) slightly higher than the Cowboys (#26, 42.0%). What I see is two teams that will do better than 40% on third down, and that means a lot of scoring. I still think Rudi and Chad are a better offensive force than Eddie and Keyshawn, so I have to reluctantly back the team that has let me down so many times before. That doesn’t mean I back them by much: Cincinnati 28, Dallas 27

Oakland (2-6) @ Carolina (1-6): pick OAK +7/over 41

The Raiders spent a lot of money to make over their defense. They should look into a refund. No team has allowed more total points (223) and they lead that department by 32 over the Saints. During their 5 game slide they have given up 33.8 points per game. Things might have been different if not for a lousy call costing them a great chance to win the Steelers game on opening day, but since beating Chucky’s Bucs they have not looked the same. Ditto for the Panthers who were “back” with their 28-17 win at Kansas City in week 2. Then came five losses in a row, but check out who they lost to. The Falcons, Broncos, Eagles, Chargers and Seahawks all have winning records and are otherwise 22-11 discounting their wins over Carolina. Yes, the Raiders played tough teams too, but were mostly blown out with the exclusion of the 31-26 loss to New Orleans. I am convinced that with Gannon in the lineup Oakland wins that game incidentally and also would have won in Houston where Collins made 5 turnovers. Then we’d be talking about a 4-4 team right in the mix. As it is they pass for a lot of yards (#10, 235.8) but it takes them a lot of throws (36.5, 4th most) and most of the yardage is “dead” because it comes when the game is out of hand. This week they get a team not used to facing many passes (27.3, 4th fewest) and one that doesn’t give up many yards (#6, 179.6) as a result. If you compare their yards per attempt to San Diego, who is #28 in yardage, they have just a 6.58 to 6.69 advantage, so it’s not like they have a shut down secondary. Teams have simply run at will against them (#31, 152.6) which is something Oakland coach Norv Turner mysteriously refuses to do with an NFL low 20.4 rushes per game or about 8 below what the middle of the pack averages. Wheatley had a few carries last week and scored so perhaps he will be more willing to run now that his planned feature back is healthy. Minus their best threat Steve Smith, Carolina hasn’t been bad throwing the ball (#17, 210.6) but has been hurt by 11 interceptions (3rd most). The Raiders have been killed in the air (#19, 220.2) when you consider they face just 27.1 passes per game (3rd fewest) and they give up 8.12 yards per attempt or almost a half yard more than the team giving up the most yardage in the NFL. No team has given up more touchdown passes (16) and they have just 5 interceptions (5th fewest). I expect a lot of passing out of Delhomme this week, because I don’t know if Davis will be ready to go and Hoover is no substitute for a team averaging just 4.0 yards per rush (11th worst) even with guys like Davis and Foster having 83 carries this season. As a contrast to their pass defense, their run defense (#28, 130.6) is deceivingly good because their average (3.8) ranks them #9 and they simply get battered in games when they are down, with an NFL high 34.6 rushes against per game. This game should be determined by how much Turner is willing to run against a beaten down run defense missing Jenkins, and how well Collins can protect the ball after turning it over 12 times in his 5 starts. Conversely, it will also boil down to what Delhomme can do against a secondary giving up tons of big plays and if he protects it, while the playing status of Davis also looms large. With so many unknowns, this is a tough game to call. The Raiders are far from home, and haven’t won a road game in a long, long time. I think that is the difference for me, even though they could win this game: Carolina 24, Oakland 20

Seattle (4-3) @ San Francisco (1-6): pick SEA -5.5/over 39.5

There isn’t as much to analyze in this one, because it is a rematch. The 49ers were throttled 34-0 by these guys the last time around and while the location has changed and the Seahawks aren’t as confident I don’t see any reason that this one will be different. The Seahawks average 50 more yards on the ground, and give up 15 fewer. Surprisingly the 49ers are 10 yards better in the air, and give up 12 fewer but while this average held up in rushing last time around (Seattle 117-48) it did not in passing (Seattle 257-127). This time around it should be Rattay at the helm, which certainly helps, and this team plays much better at home where they lost 21-19 to the now 6-2 Falcons and 24-14 to the division leading Rams while beating Arizona 31-28. In his last three starts Rattay has had QB ratings of 88.9, 99.8 and 95.2, but does have 4 turnovers which is something he can’t do in this game. The 49ers did lose a possible edge when Koren Robinson’s impending four game suspension was again delayed, something that hurts in light of their absolutely battered secondary. They have been solid against the run (3.7 per carry, #7) so don’t expect Alexander to simply run these guys over, but with rookie Spencer and Jimmy Williams starting at corner it doesn’t look good. Imagine what kind of a day former 49er Jerry Rice might have in this one after his ugly start of the season. I think this is one of those games where the home team will show up for a while and play hard before bowing out: Seattle 27, San Francisco 14

New Orleans (3-4) @ San Diego (5-3): pick NO +6.5/over 47.5

Here comes another team that I have a soft spot for in the Saints. They had their offense clicking prior to the bye week with a pair of 31 point showings, and four times have gone over 28 points this season. The bad news is that after giving up 19 points to nine of sixteen opponents last year they have given up 20+ to every team this year. It is tough to put a team away when you give up that much, which is why their 3 wins are by a combined 11 points. The Chargers have also surged on offense with 5 trips past 27 points, but while giving up 20+ in five of their first six they held the Panthers and Raiders to a total of 20 points in their last two wins. They would love to enter the bye at 6-3 heading to Oakland and Kansas City, but face a team trying to exit their bye with a .500 record. It is hard to look at either offense without focusing on their lead rusher. Both were taken in the first round of the 2001 draft and this is their first meeting. Tomlinson leads a solid attack (#9, 134.1) that has even gotten production out of backup Chatman with his 286 yards and unreal 7.2 yards per carry average. McAllister has been banged up, which is a big reason the Saints haven’t run well (#26, 93.3) or often (24.1 carries, 7th fewest). He was locked up by the Raiders in his last start, and his only game over 100 yards in four starts has been against the Bucs. Don’t expect that to change against a team giving up just 3.5 yards per carry (#2) and leading the NFL in yards allowed (81.5) with zero runs over 20 yards, a lead they share with the Ravens. On the other hand, the Saints are porous against the run (#29, 141.3) with a 4.7 yard average allowed (3rd highest) and 6 runs of 20+ (6th most). Both units have given up a lot of scores though, with New Orleans at 9 (5th most) and San Diego at 8 (7th most). Still, expect Tomlinson to lead a big rushing advantage. It used to be that Brees was a big liability in the passing game, but that has changed big time. Even without a lot of yardage (#20, 204.9) he has posted 14 scores (#5) to tie with some guy named McNabb on the list, and has done so with just 27.9 throws per game (7th fewest). His 3 interceptions are bested only by both New York quarterbacks. If you thought the Saints couldn’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass either (#31, 275.4) and McCardell has stepped right into Caldwell’s shoes to make a big impact with 120 yards in his two starts. All of this adds up to a ton of pressure on Brooks to have a career day for a good, but not spectacular passing attack (#11, 232.7) going up against a susceptible secondary (#28, 249.1) that has been barraged by 37.2 passes per game, third most in the NFL. Amazingly, 65.1% of those throws have been completed, the sixth worst mark in the NFL allowed. If Brooks can continue to protect the ball (also just 3 interceptions) he could in fact do a lot of damage. I know their last trip to California was a success, but this is a more disciplined team they are facing and if they have a first half like they did against Oakland it will be 24-7, not 9-7. Also, I like the Chargers to dictate the pace with their running game and force the Saints to abandon theirs with an early lead: San Diego 27, New Orleans 22

Chicago (2-5) @ NY Giants (5-2): pick NYG -9/under 36

At the start of the season this was one of the few games people thought the Giants could win. Suddenly it looks like a walkover for a team sniffing a playoff run. They finally got a win over a team with a winning record by blasting the Vikings 34-13 in their house last week and want to keep that momentum rolling. The Bears have been remarkably competitive for a team with all sorts of injury issues and not much talent to begin with. They got just enough out of their rookie Krenzel to get them a win over San Francisco last week, but that was at home against a team missing their starting corners. This time around I really don’t see any way he can be successful. It isn’t as though the Giants are that tough in the secondary (#13, 208.7) where they have allowed 12 scores (7th most) it is that they have 10 interceptions (3rd most) and will blitz him blind. At least the Bears now have a little running game (#14, 115.7) although they could be missing Thomas Jones and given that the Giants will stack the front it probably won’t be very effective. This season the Giants are pretty much the Tiki show on offense, with him on pace to become the first player over 2,500 total yards. The Bears are not that bad against the run in terms of average (4.0, #12) and have allowed an NFL low 2 rushing scores. That is generally not good new for a middle of the road Giants passing game that has just 4 touchdowns, besting just these Bears and the Ravens. Also, Chicago allows quarterbacks to complete just 55.0% of their passes (#4). With all of this factored in, I still don’t see the Bears moving the ball, and I like them to turn it over at least twice. If the Giants build an early 10-0 lead there is no way they can run their way back into it, and will pass their way further out of it: NY Giants 23, Chicago 9

Houston (4-3) @ Denver (5-3): pick DEN -5.5/over 41

With the NFL on chop block watch, Droughns averaged just 3.3 yards per last week against a team that had just been hammered for an NFL record 8 touchdowns. I find that very interesting. Will they go back to it this week in the hopes of ending their tailspin? They probably need to because even with Plummer throwing for a team record 499 yards they lost by two touchdowns. This team is in the midst of a fairly easy five game set, and really needs to stop the losing. The Texans suddenly could vault into a first place tie with a win in this game. Given Leftwich’s injury they are also a threat on paper to battle for the division title, which could start next week at Indianapolis. The defense that gave up 25.4 points per game during the 2-3 start has yielded just 16 over the past two wins and seems to be getting on track. Plummer’s antics last week vaulted the Broncos ranking in the pass (#8, 251.0) and with 15 touchdowns he ranks only behind Manning, Culpepper and Favre. He could certainly do damage against this Houston secondary (#25, 233.7) that has allowed 14 touchdowns (4th most) but needs to be wary of their NFL high 11 picks because we know Plummer is good for a few bad throws. Smith, Lelie and the rookie Watts have all stepped up after the departures of Sharpe and McCaffrey combining for 11 receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown per game. They should still be able to run the ball (#6, 137.6) because at 4.7 yards per rush (3rd worst) these Texans give up better than a yard more than the Falcons, Denver’s opponent last week. Conversely, Houston averages just 3.3 per carry, besting only the Dolphins and even a middle of the pack Broncos run defense can manage that. I realize Carr is having a great season, and it is startling to see this passing game ranked so high (#6, 261.3) but this Denver secondary is brutal (#3, 160.6). They will be missing hard hitting safety Lynch, but Bailey will swarm Andre Johnson all day long, leaving Gaffney and Armstrong to make plays. I don’t think they can make nearly enough, especially with Denver building a huge lead and winning the field position battle with a large edge in rushing. This is one of those weird results that will shock a few people: Denver 28, Houston 17

New England (6-1) @ St. Louis (4-3): pick STL +2.5/under 48.5

I had this one pegged as the streak buster, but the Steelers had other plans. Now for the first time since October 5, 2003 we get to see how the Pats respond to a loss. On that day they survived the Titans with a 38-30 win. The Rams now face one of the best teams after having just lost 31-14 to one of the worst. The good news is that a bye week left them time to shake that one off. The big story here is Randall Gay and Asante Samuel. Who are they? My point exactly, and the answer is the New England starting corners employed to stop Holt and Bruce. Good luck to them. The Rams have no trouble throwing the ball (#5, 264.1) and if a rookie can complete 75% of his throws with a pair of scores, what do you think Bulger will do against this defense? Heck, they were in the middle of the pack for yardage even with their shutdown corner Law. If Martz ever decides to run, his Rams average 4.6 yards per carry (#7) and face a unit giving up 4.2, again ranking in the middle of the pack. That puts a lot of pressure on the Patriots, who might be without Dillon to run the ball against a soft run defense allowing 4.6 per rush (7th most). No other back has even 20 rushes this season and Kevin Faulk did zip against the Steelers last week. We know Brady is capable of big games, but if averages hold he will be looking at about 225-230 yards passing against this defense with probably two scores. I think he needs about 400 and 4 to win this game. The Rams remember the Super Bowl loss, and will bring a little extra effort in this one which turns out to be another eye opening result: St. Louis 31, New England 17

Cleveland (3-4) @ Baltimore (4-3): pick CLE +6/under 35

Since the Ravens were embarrassed 20-3 by these Browns on opening day they have been pining for revenge. The return of Jamal Lewis might be just the lift they need to get it. He was held down in that game (20 carries, 57 yards) but weird things happen in season openers that don’t necessarily hold true over a full season or multiple games. On paper that game was about as close as it gets the Ravens up in total yards (254-250) rushing (88-85) and passing (166-165) all by the slimmest of margins. Each team had 15 third downs, and the Browns completed 5 to the Ravens 4. What happened? Glad you asked because Baltimore had 3 turnovers to Cleveland’s 0. End of story. Actually the Browns have stayed tough on the ground allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (#11) and the Ravens are still without stud left tackle Ogden. Expect them to push Lewis to the extreme, however, because their dead last passing game (122.3) has about 100 yards less on average than any middle of the pack team and an NFL low 3 touchdowns. Travis Taylor made a nice return to action last week (6 catches, 80 yards) but Heap is still out and boy it wouldn’t hurt if Kevin Johnson (11 receptions on the season) caught a few balls now would it? Cleveland has been beaten in the secondary (#26, 239.4) so you can expect Billick to call a deep throw or two just to see what happens. When the Browns have the ball, suddenly they can run it (#12, 120.4) with Suggs and Green, but only the Redskins allow a lower rushing average than these Ravens (3.5) who have given up just 3 rushing scores (3rd fewest). Garcia has started to get on track throwing the ball, posting at least 210 yards in his past three games and exploded for 4 touchdowns against the Bengals three weeks ago. However, he really doesn’t have a top receiver and that is bad when facing a tough secondary (#7, 190.1) that can pick and choose where to use McAlister. That also sets up a lot of blitzes and potential turnovers. I like Cleveland to hang tough in this game that should be dominated by field goals, but Jamal Lewis is going to get his yards this time around even if he has to run over the right side to get them: Baltimore 18, Cleveland 13

Minnesota (5-2) @ Indianapolis (4-3): pick IND -4.5/under 60

The Vikings are a different team without Randy Moss, there is no doubt about that. The Giants simply mugged them last week, killing their running game and limiting Culpepper to a garbage time touchdown. Unfortunately they have no time to sulk because they face another team with a high powered offense and with a visit to Green Bay next week could quickly slip to third place in their division. The same can be said for the Colts who with a loss here plus a Texans win at Denver would also be a third place team. Then again, a win puts them back into a first place tie heading into road games in Chicago and Detroit. Unfortunately for the MNF audience while this is a battle of the top two teams in yardage and touchdown passes in the NFL it won’t be the same without Moss. The playing field is leveled a bit because the Colts do give up 61.5 more yards and have given up twice as many touchdowns (14-7) on defense. It also helps that Minnesota has dominated on the ground with an NFL high 5.0 yards per carry even without a rusher in the top 20 for yards rushing. Their top producer, rookie Mewelde Moore, probably will miss this game due to injury, but Onterrio Smith had averaged 140 total yards in the three games he played in this season and returns from a four game suspension. Michael Bennett is also available against a middle of the pack rushing defense. Indianapolis also can run the ball with James, but hasn’t done much of it (#19, 111.1) with Edge logging just 28 total carries in their two straight losses. They will want to get back to that in this game against a Vikings defense giving up 4.7 yards per rush (3rd highest). In the end, I think Culpepper with a limited or no Moss is no match for Manning and his full set of weapons. If the Vikings can move it on the ground they can stay close, and probably will for a while, but Indy is at home and wants this game a little more: Indianapolis 34, Minnesota 24