Heck, I should do my picks a week in advance more often. I went a sparkling 12-4 straight up (110-66 overall) and a Vegas friendly 11-5 against the spread (84-87-5 overall) while unleashing a 12-4 mark on the over/under (100-73-3 overall). I also hit on both of my upset picks. The odds makers were 10-6 picking winners (110-63-3) to stay just ahead of me and 8-8 against the spread (83-85-8). The under won the week 9-7 and is now ahead 90-83 for the season with 3 pushes. I’ll take 4 underdogs with 2 winning straight up and bet on the under winning out again, 10-6. Cincinnati (5-6) @ Baltimore (7-4): pick CIN +7.5/under 37.5

This figures to be a much different game than the first meeting, won 23-9 by the Ravens. First of all, Lewis won’t be rushing for 186 yards because he is out. Next, Palmer has much more experience and shouldn’t commit 4 turnovers as he did that day. Those two factors alone should keep the Bengals in this game. They were able to drive 50+ yards on five occasions, but managed only three field goals out of those drives. Baltimore had five drives covering 45+ yards and also scored on three although two of those were touchdowns. I think Rudi Johnson has a lot of confidence after averaging 4.3 yards per rush against this defense and falling just short of 100 yards. Palmer has to feel good about 316 yards passing, especially since that is 65 more than any of his other 10 starts. A big factor in the outcome here is that the Ravens are not only at home but realize they have much at stake in this game. They will send Christmas gifts to the Raiders for putting away the Broncos last week and now they must realize that they have no margin for error against an erratic team. Clearly this is a weak Cincinnati defense, but without Lewis it will be difficult for them to crush them. Instead it will be a gritty victory: Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 16

Minnesota (7-4) @ Chicago (4-7): pick MIN -7/under 43

I hate picking this game. It’s another week 3 rematch, and in the first meeting the Bears hung tight with Grossman passing for 248 yards and Jones rushing for 110 before losing 27-22. However, in this one Hutchinson will start at quarterback and Jones has regressed into the crappy back he always has been over his past two starts, picking up only 105 yards on 32 carries for a 3.3 yard average. He has chipped in 71 yards receiving, but he is still not nearly enough of a force to keep up with this high scoring Viking attack. I usually love Chicago on defense at home, but for goodness sake the Colts, another dome team, hung a 41 on them two weeks ago. There is no reason Daunte with Moss back in the mix can’t duplicate that number. The Bears have struggled to stop the run and Minnesota has a couple different backs that could hurt them. It has been a nice run for these guys hanging close to the playoff race, but it’s over now: Minnesota 27, Chicago 13

New England (10-1) @ Cleveland (3-8): pick NE -7/under 41.5

Belichick returns to the place he once coached and faces a team that just fired their head man. Still, something in the pit of my stomach tells me that the Browns won’t give up. Perhaps it’s just the burrito I had for lunch. It looks like Luke McCown will be another rookie starter at quarterback and by the end of the week the number of rookies to see action should reach 8, with 6 having started games. That’s a big number. The Patriots have an experienced defense that can really turn it up a notch against teams with limited weapons. Last week they held Baltimore to 124 total yards and 8 first downs. Boller threw 35 passes and wound up with only 93 yards. Robiskie is not the type of guy who will step in as interim coach and really fire up the troops either. With Suggs unlikely to play they are another weapon short in the running game and now receiver Andre Davis is out for the season. This is a train wreck. Sure, these guys put up 48 points last week against a terrible Cincinnati defense. It would take about six games for them to do that against this unit. I still believe their defense will step up after being humiliated last week and play ten times better in front of their fans, but it’s not nearly enough: New England 27, Cleveland 10

Arizona (4-7) @ Detroit (4-7): pick DET -3.5/over 37

Mariucci began his career with the Lions by thumping these Cards, but they have gotten a lot better since that game. However, this time it will be unheralded rookie John Navarre starting at quarterback for them. Apparently they are hoping he is the next Brady given that he played at Michigan and was drafted only a round later (seventh). The Cards are also light at running back without Smith and Hambrick so they start Larry Croom who wasn’t even drafted. This is just what the Lions defense needs after getting clobbered for 41 by Indy ten days ago, the fourth team to score 30 or more against them and third in a row to score at least 22. The Cards have only posted 33 over the past three games and with Navarre and Croom how can they expect to do any better? Detroit is calling for Harrington’s head, but one solid game will cool those talks. His completion percentage has steadily improved, his touchdowns are up and his turnovers are down so there is no need to panic. I like what Jones has been able to do lately with 80+ yards in his past three starts, but they need to run him more often. His high is just 19 carries and he has five full games of action with 11-13 carries. That’s just not enough. I want to see him run it 25 times and watch him go over 125 yards. That will enable Harrington to really do some things. This is probably the week for it. The Arizona defense has been throttled on the road for 35, 23, 38 and 31 in their past four games and that was against the Panthers, Dolphins, Bills and 49ers who are terrible on offense collectively. Expect a real eruption in this game and renewed hope for a playoff push in the motor city: Detroit 31, Arizona 13

Tennessee (4-7) @ Indianapolis (8-3): pick IND -10/under 55

It wasn’t too long ago that these were the only decent teams in the AFC South, but quickly the Titans have dropped to the cellar. The first meeting in week 2 resulted in a 31-17 Colts win, but it wasn’t easy. Brown rushed for 152 yards and kept them in it, and even ahead by a touchdown into the final quarter when James (124 yards) took over with a pair of scores leading a 21-0 advantage to seal it up. Manning wasn’t in the midst of his incredible run at that point, Brown might not play and this one is in the RCA dome. That’s quite a bit to overcome. Also, that day Wayne (119 yards) and Harrison (98) were the main threats while Stokley and the two tight ends had just 5 catches for 34 yards. Now five guys are a threat to do damage down the field. McNair has a ton of heart, but he is talking retirement because of all the punishment. I just don’t think he has it in him any longer. When your general folds, the army quickly follows, and with no leadership I can’t see any way they beat a great team on the road. Indy has scored 31 or more points in five straight games and 8 times overall. In their last three they have averaged an unreal 43.7 points. As long as they don’t look past the Titans, they coast: Indianapolis 34, Tennessee 17

Buffalo (5-6) @ Miami (2-9): pick BUF -3/under 35.5

When these teams hooked up in week 5, both were a joke at 0-4. The Bills won and have only lost in Baltmore and New England since. The Dolphins are a reasonable 2-3 since that game, averaging 21.8 points scored, almost double what they did during the 0-5 start. Unfortunately their defense has started to break down, giving up 26.5 points per game over their past four. However, at home the only time a team scored over 17 against them was when Arizona cashed in with a last second touchdown pass. The first meeting was a coming out party for McGahee, who rushed 26 times for 111 yards in his first career start and will be playing in front of the fans who adored him in college. However, Bledsoe did not throw an interception against this tough secondary, a feat he is unlikely to repeat. I’m already uneasy about this game because I know the tide can be turned with a defense touchdown or special teams return. The Bills already have 4 punts or kickoffs for touchdowns this season. I’m looking for a typical black and blue AFC East game that boils down to who needs it more: Buffalo 13, Miami 9

Carolina (4-7) @ New Orleans (4-7): pick NO +0/over 46.5

Looking back at what the Saints have done this season, they have played 5 quality games and 6 duds. When they play well they are 3-2, when they play poorly their mark is 1-5. Carolina on the other hand has played well in all but two games, a 30-8 loss in Philadelphia and a 27-10 home loss to Atlanta. That kind of consistency scares me. They are also on a three game roll. It did take quite a bit of luck for them to beat the Bucs last week because Tampa Bay missed 3 field goals and lost the turnover battle 3-1. If not for a defensive touchdown the game still would have gone to overtime. This is also a team counting on Nick Goings to run the ball. He has piled up 227 yards in two weeks with 3 touchdowns, but can it last? I don’t think so, even against a weak defense. On the other side, Brooks leads a team that can score, with 6 trips past 20 points this season. Unfortunately their defense has failed to hold an opponent under that mark all year, hence the losing record. I look for an exciting, high scoring game and I put my trust the Saints to pull it out. They played well in Atlanta last week against a good team, and with only two home games left I can’t imagine them falling flat here: New Orleans 28, Carolina 24

Houston (5-6) @ NY Jets (8-3): pick NYJ -6.5/over 39

This is a very dangerous game for the Jets. They have won only once against a team with a winning record, and that was 34-28 victory over the Chargers in week 2, well before that team hit their stride. Offensively they are a mess with just 14.3 points scored on average during the past four games. They have managed to win their past two on defense because they allowed only 10 points total to the Browns and Cards. This Houston team brings a lot more talent on that side of the ball. Fortunately Pennington returns to the helm, but he’ll be facing a club on the brink of playoff elimination. I guarantee that Houston will bring every ounce of effort in this game, even if they were crushed by 18 and 35 points in their last two contests away from home. I think the key might be their lack of defense. Seven times they have allowed 21 points this season and have held only Tennessee under that number in five road games, allowing 32.3 points on average in the other four. New York will come right at them on the ground and if they are successful will strike deep to Moss, who is starting to make plays again. During his last four starts he has a pair of touchdowns and an average of 92 yards. McCareins has also stepped up with three touchdowns in the past five games. I’m looking at a team in the midst of a playoff push really flexing their muscle at home in relatively bad weather conditions. They are a 4-1 team at home and probably would have beaten the Ravens with Pennington on the field. Houston is 2-3 on the road, but the wins were over the Chiefs and Titans who are a combined 5-15 on the season. That adds up to a solid win for the home team: NY Jets 26, Houston 17

San Francisco (1-10) @ St. Louis (5-6): pick STL -10/over 47

The 49ers are just what the sputtering Rams need right now. With four losses in five games the offense has scored between 14 and 23 points after posting 24-33 during the preceding four games. In all, five times they have put up precisely 17 points. For some perspective, last season they failed to reach 20 just twice. It is tough to gain 452 yards and score just two touchdowns as they did last week, but 3 turnovers help. Forget all of that though because this is a team that has failed to hold anyone under 21 and averages 29.1 points allowed. They are completely hobbled with injuries, especially in the secondary. The first time around Bulger never really got going with just 186 yards and a touchdown. Faulk (121 yards) and Jackson (46) did most of the damage on the ground, combining for 33 carries. It looks like Faulk will be out, but that just clears the way for Martz to unleash Jackson on the world. The guy has averaged 5.1 yards per rush, but has a high of just 13 carries and just two other games with over 8. That hasn’t stopped him from besting 40 yards rushing six times. I think San Francisco is starting to look into the future by using different players in spots and probably doesn’t want to blow the #1 overall pick in the draft now that it is within their grasp. The fickle Rams will turn up the heat early and never let up: St. Louis 38, San Francisco 14

Atlanta (9-2) @ Tampa Bay (4-7): pick ATL +1.5/under 40.5

The Bucs used to be the one team that really gave Vick problems, but three weeks ago it took him only 8 completions to pass for 147 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 73 yards on just 9 carries. The Falcons won 24-14, rushing for 205 yards. Griese was sacked 7 times and in his other six starts he has gone down a total of 10, and never more than 3 in a single game. Speaking of Griese, this guy has been amazing. Every start his quarterback rating is at least 94.4 and he has a touchdown in all 7 with two in five games including the past four in a row. He’s completing 69.8% of his throws, second only to Culpepper in the NFL and in case you hadn’t noticed this team doesn’t exactly have the most sure handed receivers around. On the ground Pittman had been on a bit of a roll with 101.3 yards on average over a four game stretch, but was limited to just 29 yards on 18 carries last week in Carolina. The offense has also been up and down in general, with 19, 34, 14 (against Atlanta) 35 and 14 over their last five games. The Falcons haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard with only 20.7 in their past three games, but they are winning. They have a division title to think about and are trying to catch Philadelphia for the #1 seed. What they need to do is put that in the back of their mind and hone in on a dangerous team. The Bucs have won their last three at home and prior to that lost just 16-13 to a good Denver team. Aside from giving up 31 in a win over Kansas City, an offensive juggernaut, they have allowed an average of 9.0 points at home. Even with all of that, Atlanta is confident they can beat this team and possesses the running game to get it done. Warrick Dunn was a Buc once, and still has the fire to beat his old franchise. This defense has lost some of its edge, and just enough to allow Vick time to show off his speed: Atlanta 17, Tampa Bay 14

Kansas City (3-8) @ Oakland (4-7): pick OAK +0/under 51

For teams that are used to winning division titles lately this will be a different experience. The Chiefs come in reeling on a four game losing streak having allowed at least 27 points in five straight games. The losing streak is startling given it followed wins over current division leaders Atlanta and Indianapolis, but the first two came on the road and the last two came against another pair of leaders in New England and San Diego. All of the games were decided by 8 points or less. Oakland on the other hand has a bit of a surge winning two of three, having just knocked Denver out of first place with a big road win. Their defense is also shaky, and has allowed at least 23 points in 8 consecutive games although to be fair Denver scored only 17 on offense last week and they looked like the unit advertised after free agent acquisitions. That’s good because the Chiefs can put up points although it doesn’t appear they will have Holmes or possibly even Trent Green. That would leave Todd Collins to throw the ball, and he has just 23 pass attempts since joining the team in 2001. His last major action came in 1997 when he passed for 2,367 yards for the Bills in 14 games with 12 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while completing 55% of his passes. Not bad, but not great for a guy taken in the middle of the second round either. Blaylock had a huge opening game against New Orleans with 186 yards rushing, but since then has proved to be far less effective after posting 91 and 88 total yards the past two games. Those are decent totals, but Holmes probably would have had another 30-40 yards. That equates to a few first downs and a big difference. Jerry Porter has started to come on strong for Oakland, averaging 77.8 yards receiving over his past five games with four touchdowns including that trio against Bailey last week. Curry has picked up 77.0 in his last three games and quietly this is turning into the duo of the future. The ground game loses Wheatley, but I think they are better off with Zereoue anyway. In a four game stretch earlier this season he picked up 89.5 total yards on just 18.5 touches on average. Just give him the ball 25-30 times and see what happens Norv. This might be the game to do it against a soft Kansas City defense. I still see a ton of scoring even if Green joins Holmes on the sidelines. This is a rivalry game and I think after three home losses in a row the Raiders have had enough. The Chiefs have lost three in a row on the road and are 1-4 for the season with a far less potent 23.6 point scoring average. I think the Silver and Black are on a mission to finish strong leading into 2005: Oakland 27, Kansas City 23

Denver (7-4) @ San Diego (8-3): pick SD -2.5/under 48

Yet another week 3 rematch and this one has the most implications. For Denver, a win pulls them back atop the division standings with a season sweep and given their remaining schedule it would probably take the Chargers going 4-0 to unseat them. For San Diego, a win puts them two games up plus a tiebreaker with only four to go meaning they would be a home win over Tampa Bay and road victory over Cleveland away from a division title. The Broncos suffered another of their patented inexplicable losses last week, 25-24 at home to the Raiders. That one joined a 41-28 home setback to an Atlanta team coming off a 56-10 ripping by Kansas City and a 23-10 loss in Cincinnati. Big wins over Houston and New Orleans seemed to have them back on track, but now they are firmly in desperation mode because Baltimore could knock them out of the playoffs entirely. With that being said, is this San Diego team overrated? They have beaten zero teams with a winning record this season, going 0-3 against such competition although they fell by just 1 and 6 points to the Falcons and Jets respectively. The other loss was 23-13 in Denver. That was before Brees and Gates exploded onto the scene. Brees had just 121 yards and no touchdowns while Gates had 4 receptions for 30 yards. Even Tomlinson had only 70 total yards, his second lowest total of the season, and was held without a touchdown run for the only time this year. Similar numbers don’t seem likely, but consider that on the road Denver is allowing just 11.8 points per game. Unbelievably, San Diego has posted 37.0 points scored at home and hung up 42 and 43 during their last two games. I think this will be an emotional game because the Chargers have a lot to prove. Droughns has been a savior for this team with 916 yards rushing in his last 7 games (130.9 average). Only Alexander, James, Martin, Barber and Dillon have bested that mark and those guys have started since the season opened. Now he has a hand issue after receiving stitches during last week’s game in which he lost two fumbles in the snow. It won’t be snowing in San Diego, but this might still be a factor. I think in the end the Chargers will be too fired up to lose this game: San Diego 27, Denver 20

Green Bay (7-4) @ Philadelphia (10-1): pick GB +7/under 48

These are clearly the hottest teams in the NFC with the Packers having reeled off six wins in a row while averaging 33.7 points scored and the Eagles have won their last three following their only loss on the year with an average of 34.7 points. With two hot offenses usually defense makes the difference. The Eagles have smothered the Redskins and Giants over the past two weeks, holding them to 6 points each. No team has come onto their field and scored over 17 points where they average just 11.4 allowed and are 5-0. Green Bay has also been hot on defense, giving up 17 or less in three of their past four contests and throwing out a 45-31 loss in Indianapolis (who doesn’t give up a ton to Manning?) they allow only 12.8 points per game on the road. These teams are starting to sound similar, aren’t they? Both have an MVP caliber quarterback and each sports a stud receiver. Owens and Walker have almost identical reception and yardage figures with Owens having one more catch and 9 more yards although he does have a 13-9 advantage in touchdowns because no one else on the Eagles can score. Pinkston is the only other receiver with a touchdown, exactly one, while Driver has picked up 804 yards with 6 touchdowns for Green Bay. Multiple threats always help. Ahman Green is banged up and has only gone over 100 yards four times while being used somewhat sparingly this season with only five games over 17 carries. He will need to gut this one out if Green Bay is to have a chance because Davenport is out and Fisher might not be up to the task. Westbrook is his opposite number, but now the cagey veteran Levens is chipping in. While Westbrook has piled up 116.7 total yards on average the past three weeks with a total of 5 touchdowns Levens has chipped in 9.3 carries for 43.3 yards per game to help carry the load. I think it is time for Green Bay’s good fortune to run out. They scraped by Washington on a bad call, barely held off Minnesota and had to mount a big comeback to escape Houston. This Eagles team is a too good for that kind of play. We are talking about a Philadelphia squad that has recorded 8 wins by 10 points or more this season, a remarkable number. They won’t win this one by that much, but they will win: Philadelphia 20, Green Bay 16

NY Giants (5-6) @ Washington (3-8): pick WAS -1.5/over 31.5

The final rematch in a week filled with them replays a 20-14 New York win in week 2. In that one the Redskins staked out a 7-0 lead after the first quarter but gave up 20 in the second and were never really in it thanks to a 7-1 deficit in the turnover department. Ramsey relieved an injured Brunell and tossed 3 interceptions while Warner was of course then the quarterback for the G-Men. Neither feature back did much damage with Portis totaling 88 yards and Barber 69. At this point New York is looking for offense and the Eli Manning era has started off with 3 field goals and only one touchdown in two losses. Six times this season they have been held to 17 points or less and they are still in it because their defense has held opponents to that same figure on seven occasions. They will likely do so again against a team that hasn’t scored over 18 all season and averages a crazy low 12.5 points per game. Statistics tell me that Portis should break out of his two game slumber and run all over this defense that has lost a quartet of their ends including their stud Strahan. It is also worth noting that this will be Eli’s first road start and he faces a defense that ranks #2 overall and in the top 5 against both the pass and the rush. He has already thrown 2 picks in each of his starts and completed fewer than 40% of his throws against slightly lesser defenses. I believe Ramsey makes this offense better, and with Portis doing some damage he won’t need to throw 34 or more passes as he has in his last three starts, all losses. All signs point to Gibbs getting a much needed win to get a whole lot of pressure off his back: Washington 19, NY Giants 16

Pittsburgh (10-1) @ Jacksonville (6-5): pick JAX +4/under 37

Former AFC Central rivals square off in what amounts to a must-win for the Jags. They were 5-3 when Leftwich got hurt, and although they went 1-1 without him they lost a lot of momentum and their loss in Minnesota has placed them in a very tight spot. Offensively they have sputtered to 17 points or less in their last four games when you discount the overtime touchdown that beat Detroit. Defensively they have really weakened since their 3-0 start, giving up 22.5 points per game. However, at home where they are 3-2 only Indianapolis (24-17 loss) has scored over 18 points against them and Pittsburgh’s offense has also slowed down lately with 19.7 points per game over their last three. Still, now they get Staley and Burress back into the fold. What concerns me here is that a team on a roll sooner or later lays an egg and on the road against a good team is usually when it happens. Fred Taylor has always been tough on the Steelers and his last three games he is averaging a stout 131 yards on 22 carries for a 5.97 average per rush. He has also ripped off three of his five longest runs of the season. At some point Roethlisberger will have to start making some plays and three games in a row he has failed to reach 140 yards passing. Just one time this season he has completed more than 18 passes so I wonder if they can count on him to deliver the ball down the field if they get behind. It has been a great run for him, but Leftwich is a little more of a clutch performer at this point: Jacksonville 19, Pittsburgh 17

Dallas (4-7) @ Seattle (6-5): pick SEA -7/over 42

You wouldn’t think teams like this would be thinking playoffs, but the Cowboys are a game out of the wild card while the Seahawks are alone atop their division. Suddenly you look at Seattle’s list of wins are realize that New Orleans and Tampa Bay, who they beat on the road the first two weeks of the season, at 4-7 are their biggest victories. They have been crunched twice by otherwise 3-6 St. Louis, mugged 38-9 at home by a Buffalo team that entered 4-6 and lost to an otherwise 3-7 Arizona team. Dallas on the other hand is no better, having two wins a piece over 4-7 and 3-8 teams. However, their losses have come against teams that are currently no worse than 5-6 although six of the seven have come by 16 points or more. The big factor here is what the banged up Hasselbeck can do. His last two games have produced only 178.5 yards passing even with an average of 37 throws and he has only 1 touchdown pass. Darrell Jackson is really their only threat down the field and he is averaging 3.3 receptions for 39 yards with no touchdowns over his last three games. He only has 4 touchdowns on the season, two coming against a hapless 49er secondary. Fortunately they have Alexander who until last week was on a serious roll with 156.8 yards rushing on average during his past four starts with 4 touchdowns. They will need to stay close if he is going to carry them again. Dallas hopes Julius Jones will continue to be their main man after carrying the ball 30 and 33 times in his two starts for 231 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but this is a tough run defense. I could really see either team winning this game, but even though the Cowboys stifled the Bears last week they really haven’t been able to stop anyone this season. That’s really the difference as the Seahawks get well: Seattle 28, Dallas 17