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Tuesday, August 14 2018

NFL Predictions 2004: Championship games

SportAfter a whole bunch of fussing we are left back in the good old days with the top four seeds battling it out for a spot in the Super Bowl. The Rams were a sucker bet for me again after their special teams got crucified while the Vikings blew about ten chances at scoring at least a field goal, or so it seemed, and wound up failing to cover the points. Meanwhile Indianapolis had the worst game plan ever devised. Either that or they were bought off because they played a terrible game. As it is I went 2-2 picking winners (162-102) and went 1-3 against the spread (127-30-7) meaning I canít have a positive year in the latter department and need a perfect run to get back even. On the over under I rebounded at 3-1 (151-110-3) and I missed both of my upsets (22 of 53). The odds makers were a perfect 4-0 (171-85-5) and 3-1 against the number (121-131-12) with 3 of 4 games going under to leave under ahead 131-130 on the season with 3 pushes.

New England (15-2) @ Pittsburgh (16-1): pick PIT +3/under 35

Everyone is quick to point out that Dillon didnít play the first time these teams met. Iíll be quick to point out that he wonít be playing defense this time either. The Steelers rolled the Pats for 417 total yards and 221 on the ground. Roethlisberger saw only 6 of his passes fall to the turf, didnít turn it over and had 2 touchdown passes. None of that is going to change when Dillon hits the field. That game was 34-13 heading into the final quarter, so is he really a 21 point player? I donít believe so. Last week the Pats took advantage of a poorly prepared Colts team that didnít run enough early on and didnít pass in spread formations enough when they fell behind. They also failed to take advantage of a beaten up secondary down the field. You better believe that Pittsburghís much more balanced attack will strike deep to Burress at least a few times. Ward is as good of a possession receiver as anyone Indianapolis has and Randle El can hurt Troy Brown in the slot which is a match-up Stokley failed to take advantage of. On the other hand, this is a New England team that was pretty much stopped by a terrible Indianapolis defense ranked #29 in total yards allowed. Unfortunately for them, Pittsburghís unit is not only considerably better, they are #1. The forecast calls for snow and the only thing that changes is the over/under result because Pittsburgh is going to slam the ball right at New England all day long. Their two backs have a better chance against a clearly not 100% defense than Dillon does against a fully wired defense playing at home. Thatís the difference: Pittsburgh 20, New England 13

Atlanta (12-5) @ Philadelphia (14-3): pick PHI -4.5/over 38

As good as the Eagles looked at times last week I think there is a strong possibility for them to join the Bills in the four losers in a row club although weíre not talking about Super Bowls here. At the very least Iím excited to have a playoff game that isnít a rematch. Atlanta can really run the ball and last week against Minnesota the Vikings got 72 yards on just 15 carries from their backfield. Had they stuck with the ground game the result might have been different. Make no mistake, the Falcons will stick with it because they donít really have a choice. Other than tight end Alge Crumpler no one on this team can catch the damn ball. Starting receivers Price and White combined for 75 receptions for 945 yards and 5 touchdowns which is pretty much what most other #1 receivers do on their own. Finneran had the only 2 other scores for wide receivers as the team scored just 15 times through the air all season. Vick was over 180 yards passing only four times this year and just once (252 in a 41-28 win over Denver) went over 220. Last week he was 12 of 16 for flipping 82 yards. What is this high school? Sure, the guy ran for 119 yards and in 15 games plus limited action against Seattle he has 1,021 yards rushing. My question is what he can do if they fall behind 10-0 or 14-3 and they need him to throw the ball. On the other side youíve got a seasoned quarterback in McNabb who proved that Owens doesnít make this team after throwing for 286 yards and a pair of touchdowns with no turnovers while completing 64% of his throws. The Vikings have a weak secondary, but the Falcons arenít far behind them in yardage allowed and they rely on rookie DeAngelo Hall who will be in his first big game. Mitchell, Lewis and Smith really stepped up their game last week and Westbrook is sure to be given even more looks this week when he will be the difference maker. Iím looking at the whole picture here. This is an Atlanta team that opened the season skating by San Francisco 21-19, a team that wound up 2-14. Six of their wins were by 4 points or less and the good teams they beat (Denver, San Diego and St. Louis) were playoff frauds as it turned out. Philly has 10 wins by double digits in the 15 games they were trying and just canít lose another home NFC title game: Philadelphia 28, Atlanta 17
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