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Saturday, November 18 2017

Math is awesome

Sport

Historically, I've built algebraic models when I've done data analysis.  (See "Volleyball Cookies" and "Volleyball Cupcakes").  But I was inspired by the stochastic methods for forecasting the election.  I built a pretty basic Monte Carlo simulator for the football game that happened on Thursday night (Indianapolis-Jacksonville).  The results?

I got an O/U of 42.5, IND -4, and possible scores of:

  • 17-13
  • 23-20
  • 23-19

Vegas had it as IND-3, O/U=42.5.   So my model would have had me bet Indianpolis to win, to cover the spread, and I probably would have avoided an O/U bet.

And how did the actual game go? 

Indianapolis won, 27-10 (total of 37, 17 point spread).  So I would have won on straight up pick, and the pick vs. the spread.

So, does anyone know where I can get NFL team data, without screen-scraping websites?

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