1

BALTIMORE

We might not have to wonder anymore how good this defense would be if the offense could keep them off the field a little bit. Last year it was a top 10 finish in scoring, total, rushing, passing, defensive touchdowns and interceptions leaving them out only in sacks (#12 with 39). Their mettle will be tested immediately when Indianapolis visits for a Sunday night affair to open the season. On the road Cincinnati, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Denver pose the biggest challenges but they also get Chicago and Tennessee who can’t move the ball. Still, this is a defense you might consider drafting and then dealing away because I wouldn’t want to line them up against Green Bay and Minnesota in the FFL playoffs, even if those games are at home.

2

NEW ENGLAND

Everyone knows what they do in the real world on defense, and in fantasy they are pretty good too having tied for second in scoring (16.3) while finishing #9 in total yards (310.8) and #8 in defensive scores (4) #4 in sacks (45) and #7 in interceptions (20). Straight up I don’t like the loss of Bruschi and Chad Brown is not going to replace his production or leadership. The secondary overachieved last year and isn’t improved while the draft overall seemed pretty curious to me, among others who followed it. Their division figures to be a dog fight other than the Dolphins while they also have tough trips to Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Kansas City while Oakland brings a potentially dangerous offense in on opening day. The really bad part is that in FFL title week they play at the Jets on MNF and we know how games can get high scoring in primetime, just reference their 29-28 loss in Miami last year. I realize they are on a roll, but I see it coming to an end so don’t reach for them too early.

3

PITTSBURGH

It is very tough to overlook a squad that led the NFL in total points, total yards and yards rushing while finishing third in touchdowns (5) and seventh in sacks (41). The problem I have is that now it comes against stiffer competition that will be gunning for them. The Baltimore offense got a lot better while Cincinnati’s is rounding into shape while they also visit dome offensive forces in Minnesota and Indianapolis. That’s six tough ones right there. The good news is that in FFL championship week they are in Cleveland while they also get Tennessee and Chicago at home which is five easy tilts. Overall I don’t think the schedule is that tough, I simply don’t believe they are up to repeating their performance. The draft was geared more towards the offense.

4

PHILADELPHIA

When this unit wants to bring it, they are just about as good as anyone in the fantasy (emphasize that word) realm. They were #2 in scoring defense (16.3) even after sitting their starters over the final two games which hurt their yardage figures but they did wind up #2 in sacks (48). They have a strong hold on their division and none of the three teams in the East have a powerful offense. The Bay Area teams come in early, with the 49ers possibly starting a rookie quarterback while the Raiders figure out their new offensive parts. In FFL championship week they visit Arizona and your guess is as good as mine if that offense will boom or bust. They do get two tough visits to Missouri for St. Louis and Kansas City while Green Bay and Seattle bring their weapons to town. In the end, I like their consistency. They added three rookies in the top 102 picks and I think all of them will have a positive impact on the group overall. The killer for them is that they will likely go 14-2 or better and rest their starters during your playoffs, dropping them a few slots for that alone.

5

NY JETS

I’m really high on the men in green this year. They finished in the top 10 in scoring defense, total yards, rushing yards and interceptions last year. In the draft the defense was addressed after early shuffling that left them taking first round talent Justin Miller (CB from Clemson) at #57 to compensate for dealing down to acquire tight end Doug Jolley from Oakland. The loss of Ferguson hurts, but past the opener in Kansas City and a trip to Denver their road schedule isn’t that daunting. Baltimore, Buffalo and Atlanta could be good although all of those are early on. If they can play as well at home as I think they will this is going to be a sure fire top 10 defense this year. They draw New England in primetime during FFL title week, but could help you get there (at Miami the prior week).

6

TAMPA BAY

This is what happens to a defense when you let leaders like Sapp and Lynch walk out the door. In half of their games they allowed at least 21 points, which would have taken about three games during their Super Bowl season. During their best 8 games the average was a miniscule 10.1 and five of those came in the first seven when they were still start material. They still finished with the top pass defense and #9 overall in points allowed with a #5 finish in total defense. A total of 45 sacks (#3) didn’t hurt either. They still have a lot of talent on the defense and losing McFarland was what hurt their run defense. Rookie Ruud will help their tired and old linebackers so they have some sleeper potential given that some will shy away from them. Traveling to New England and drawing Atlanta at home aren’t great fantasy playoff games, but they usually handle Vick so it isn’t a complete washout. 

7

DALLAS

I flat out love this unit. Yes, they got punched around last year in allowing 11 teams to score at least 21 points but let’s not forget the 2003 season when they held 10 teams to 16 points or less just yet. They had really bad finishes in the fantasy categories, but were #10 in rushing yards allowed and added a Pro Bowl tackle in Ferguson to force teams into even more passing situations. The draft produced three front 7 guys in the top 42 picks, a safety later on and Anthony Henry (CB) from the Browns. Aaron Glenn is a nice veteran nickel player as well. This much talent added to a unit that is a year separated from a great season bodes very well. Julius Jones will run the ball well enough to put them in good positions and if you are willing to wait deep in the draft for a defense this is your pick. One downside is that they are on the road in the FFL playoffs (Washington and Carolina) but I have confidence in them for those games. They don’t have an easy schedule, but you can easily start them against the Redskins and Giants (twice each) plus games against San Francisco and Arizona for possible big points.

8

ATLANTA

Last year they were pretty much in the middle of the pack for points (21.1) and yards (325.4) finishing #14 in both categories. They became a fantasy factor thanks to 5 defensive touchdowns (#3) and an NFL high 48 sacks. Those are two fickle stats, as shown by the team having 36 and 47 sacks the prior two seasons. Will they stay up or go back down? The make or break factor for them is traveling to frigid Chicago and then offensively improved Tampa Bay during the FFL playoffs. They also have road games in Seattle, Buffalo, New Orleans and Detroit with all of those teams having skilled offensive players. Philadelphia, Minnesota, New England, Green Bay and New Orleans also come to their house not to mention their pair of games with Carolina. This is a nightmare for fantasy owners looking for a good match-up. I like the fact that they added some new blood in the draft and helped the passing offense, so there is reason for optimism but I think other owners will take them sooner than they are worth grabbing.

9

MINNESOTA

A definite group to watch. They picked off just 11 passes (#28) but added Smoot and Sharper to the secondary. They were #12 in sacks and drafted stud Erasmus James just for good measure. The run defense was below average (#21) but Pat Williams comes over from Buffalo to help out. The linebackers got a boost with Harris (via the Moss deal) and the veteran Cowart so every part of their defense has new talent. How can they help but be vastly improved? Tice has said he will rededicate to running the football and without Randy it might be a necessity. Still, their offense is going to chew up some clock either way. I know that 13 teams posted at least 19 points on them last year, but they played pretty well in the playoffs giving up 17 to Green Bay and were gritty in a 27-14 loss to Philly. Given their new guys you will see many more games in the 13 to 17 range for them. The opposition is also a bright spot with Tampa Bay, Chicago (twice) NY Giants and Cleveland on the schedule. For their FFL playoff games it isn’t that favorable (Pittsburgh, at Baltimore) but overall for as cheaply as they can be had you will be fortunate to have them.

10

BUFFALO

They were quietly a pretty good unit last year, finishing #8 in points (17.8) and second in yards (258.4) but let’s not get insane just yet. Late in the year they beat up on Cleveland and San Francisco, who had flat out quit, twice met up with offensively inept Miami (who put up 32 on them in the rematch) and during a lot of early season games they couldn’t muster enough offense for teams to feel challenged by them. In other words, this is more trend than mirage. Now they have to contend with a tougher schedule and improved division on offense now that Miami has their running game back and New York gets a passing game (Coles and Jolley). The NFC North is a better overall division than the NFC West and I don’t like them going against Denver and then to Cincinnati during the playoffs. I think they’re overvalued.

11

WASHINGTON

Last year they tore it up with high rankings in total yards (#7) rushing yards (#2) passing yards (#7)  and points allowed (#5) but in most of the fantasy scoring categories they were not nearly as high so it didn’t translate well. Now they have to deal with rookie Carlos Rogers taking over for the reliable Smoot, two rookie linebackers filling the depth chart, stud Arrington being unhappy and stud safety Taylor ready for jail. Those problems are tough to ignore, even for a team that allowed just two teams to score more than 21 points on them last year (28 in both games) and held five teams to 13 points or less. One thing that is a big positive for them is drawing two home games in the playoff weeks against the Cowboys and Giants, two teams they know well and should handle. Last year they allowed 61 points in the four games against them (15.3 average). I don’t think their yardage totals will be where they were in 2004, but blind luck should improve them in the fantasy friendly categories and make them one of the better units.

12

HOUSTON

The two major additions to the defense were Buchanon (CB) from the Raiders and Travis Johnson (DT) in the draft. Both were good moves from a fantasy standpoint because they improved their already pretty good run defense while adding help (and probably interceptions) to the struggling defense. Last year they allowed at least 21 points in 10 games, which is terrible. Now I like their offense to keep improving and for the schedule to help them as well. Sure, they get Indy twice but that is over by week 10. Most importantly they are home during the FFL playoffs for Arizona and Jacksonville, the latter of which they held to 6 points in two games last year. In other words, this is a definite defense to keep your eye on for a substitute to your superior overall defense that draws a tough opponent in weeks 15 and 16. Only seven of their opponents are what I would consider favorable, and one of those is in the final week, not scored in most leagues. That means you should use them in conjunction with another defense no matter what.

13

JACKSONVILLE

They were #11 in yards allowed and #7 in points so some things went right last year. Nine of their opponents scored 18 points or less and the teams that lit them up (24+ points) were good offensive teams in the form of Indy (twice) San Diego, Green Bay and Minnesota. This year the schedule isn’t very kind and that is probably what hurts them the most. Other than a late three game road trip (Tennessee, Arizona and Cleveland) they don’t get a single weak offense other than the second Tennessee game in meaningless fantasy week 17. It’s a tough break for a good defense that probably won’t stand out because their offense isn’t very good and the teams they play will give them stiff competition. Mix it up and you get a team that will make you sweat on a weekly basis if you draft them.

14

DENVER

Very quietly they finished towards the top of the major categories with high marks in total yards (#4) rushing (#4) passing (#6) and points (#9). They only picked off 12 passes (#27) and were in the middle of the pack in quarterback sacks so that hurt their fantasy value. Now the secondary gets three new corners and the line gets a few Cleveland Browns to add depth. The key word there is “depth” because if they were the impact players it wouldn’t work since the unit they left behind got crushed. I also like the linebackers who are very athletic and have an upcoming star with D.J. Williams. An astounding 11 teams failed to score more than 17 points against them. The big crunches were against Atlanta (41) and Kansas City (45) plus that memorable 49-24 thumping in the playoffs at Indy. That alone will stick in fantasy owners heads, but it shouldn’t. How many teams have all those weapons? None, really. This is going to be a solid team for at least six weeks, even though they get tough opposition in their offensively charged division. You could pair them with a team like Houston that has a more favorable playoff opponents (Denver is at Buffalo and home for Oakland).

15

CAROLINA

It was tough for them to get into a defensive rhythm last year because they lost a lot of good offensive players and kept falling behind after being put in bad positions. As a result, only three times did they hold teams to 17 points or less. They didn’t do much damage in sacks (#24 with 34) but an NFL high 26 interceptions in their wide open games helped them in the fantasy world. The logic in taking them is that with their running game presumably back in motion their defense won’t have as much pressure on it. I’m looking at a schedule with the offensively strong AFC East and of course their own division plus teams like Dallas, Green Bay and Minnesota which is enough to stray me away from them.

16

DETROIT

The defense was pretty much a middle of pack group last year, but the reason for optimism is that their offense figures to really mow over their opponents this season after adding important depth at receiver and quarterback while already having established the run. USC rookie Shaun Cody could lift up the line, but overall getting into better positions to succeed in terms of field position will be the biggest change. Last year they were really hit or miss. In half of the games they allowed 17 or less points (14.1 average) and in the other half it was at least 22 points (29.6 average). The plus side of them is a first part of the season with a few of the weaker offenses like Chicago (twice), Tampa Bay, Baltimore (maybe) Arizona (probably) and Cleveland. It gets ugly after that so get your use out of them early on if you decide they are worth having based on week 1 or 2 performance because I wouldn’t advise them during your FFL title game (at New Orleans).

17

CHICAGO

I was ready to laud their defense as up and coming this season, but they blew it by throwing the bulk of their attention in free agency and the draft towards the inept offense. They had a deceivingly high finish in points allowed (#13, 20.7) and last year their fantasy stats were pumped up by 5 defensive touchdowns, third most in the NFL. In most categories they ranked in the middle of the pack and even a slightly better offense won’t be able to push them up that much. The only positive is a potential full healthy season out of Urlacher, Ogunleye and Brown which boosts every aspect of their unit. However, all six divisional games are against tough offensive teams while they also get a tough NFC South, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Overall the negatives (tough schedule) outweigh the positives (health and better offense) so they are in the middle of the pack. That being said, they are a nice spot start at home although Carolina, Green Bay and Atlanta are their final three home games so that will only apply to the first half of the season. 

18

OAKLAND

Don’t dismiss them just because their moves weren’t as flashy as the ones they made on offense. In fact, pay attention to their offensive moves and realize that adding a deep threat and a lead rusher will mean pushing their opponents around enough to keep the defense on the sidelines where they can’t allow any points. An unruly 9 teams scored at least 30 points on them with only an early 13-10 win over Buffalo and late 13-6 loss to Jacksonville in the rain as efforts where teams failed to post 20 on them. An NFL low 9 forced fumbles and nearly NFL low 9 picks (third fewest) didn’t help and either did just 25 sacks (#31). What changed? They drafted two corners who add lightning speed in nickel/dime situations, ridding themselves of often burned Buchanon in favor of Asomugha opposite Woodson. They got first round talent Hawthorne at tackle, plus savvy veteran Jasper giving them a deep rotation in the middle behind Washington and Sapp who need relief. At end they added Burgess and will put Brayton back at his natural position as they switch back to the 4-3. The linebackers lost Harris, but added Morrison in the draft and Foreman in free agency. I like these moves and I think they make a really good spot start in week 15 (fantasy semifinals) when they face Cleveland. They also get favorable games against Dallas, Tennessee (road) Washington (road) Miami and NY Giants. I recommend them in the proper platoon.

19

INDIANAPOLIS

As many points as their offense scores it is tough for their defense to get it done in the fantasy world. In half of their games they allowed at least 24 points and in their best eight games the average was 13.1 so they were barely a spot start unit. With 45 sacks (#3) and 19 interceptions (#9) they punched up a little bit of fantasy numbers and they also forced an NFL high 25 fumbles. On the other side you have to realize that giving up 370.6 yards per game (#29) is going to lead to a lot of points. The addition of two corners and a defensive end early in the draft with a pair of linebackers and a safety in day two could help, but how much? If they are going to have value, it will come by building quick 10-0 or 14-3 leads and then pounding the football at them instead of going up 28-14 or 31-17 before letting off the gas pedal. Until that happens I would shy away from them. San Diego and Seattle (road) in the fantasy playoffs isn’t what you want either. 

20

SAN DIEGO

They picked off 23 passes (#3) but recorded only 29 sacks (#29) although they hope adding a rookie like Merriman can help in that department. The already strong run defense picked up Castillo later in the first round, but the secondary needs to get a lot better. The high interception total is because teams threw a lot of passes at them, beating them for big yards (253.3, #31). Their finish in points allowed was good (#11) but they only held three teams under 17 points and half of the teams posted at least 20 on them. The division is filled with offensive stars and the dagger seems to be visits to Indianapolis and Kansas City during the FFL playoffs. There will be more pressure on them and the bending (ie allowing around 20 points) will turn to breaking a few more points, taking them off the upper half of fantasy defenses.

21

MIAMI

It was an ugly season overall for the team, as everyone who played them just ran right through their defense (143.9 yards, #31). Still, until they gave up they weren’t that bad in allowing 17 points or less in their first four games although they repeated that just three more times. Seven times they gave up at least 24 points including getting battered for 41 and 42 against the Jets and Bills. They bolstered the defensive line, but parted ways with Surtain to leave a big hole in the secondary. If there is going to be improvement it will be because the offense starts to run the ball with Brown and Williams (who comes back in game 5 presumably). That’s going to help them in points allowed, a key fantasy category. I could see them improving on sacks with the new line, but they don’t have the playmakers to score defensively (one last year) and make a bigger fantasy impact.

22

CINCINNATI

Flat out they used to be the complete laughing stock of fantasy defense, giving up 30 points just about every week it seemed. Now they have at least jumped to the level of mediocrity. They ranked in the bottom half of total yards, rushing yards and points allowed, only dipping into the upper half on passing (#13) just barely. They had some marginal stats in the fantasy categories, but not outstanding. In 2004 they gave up at least 22 points in 10 games, five times allowing at least 31 including the 48 spot they let Cleveland put up. That’s not what I want from my defense, whether Marvin Lewis is at the helm or not really isn’t relevant unless Ray and company switch teams. They face plenty of strong offensive teams like Minnesota, Pittsburgh (twice) Green Bay, Indianapolis, Detroit, Buffalo and Kansas City so the schedule doesn’t help. Let’s just leave them as waiver wire material (still).

23

SEATTLE

They were in the bottom 10 in all the major categories (total yards, pass/rush and points) after lighting it up early by allowing just 13 points in the first three games. From then on out every team (including the playoff loss) scored at least 17 on them, with 9 of those teams scoring at least 25 with an average of 27.6 points. A rare bright spot was 23 interceptions (#3) and they did force 19 fumbles (#6). Presuming the ball hawk secondary is in decent shape if the pressure up front improves. They added two linebackers in the draft plus Jamie Sharper so the group that was decimated by injury has been revamped. Those are decent moves, but not great ones. I am concerned about the offense centering too much on Alexander with only one quality receiver. If you need any more help making your choice, their week 16 (FFL championship) opponent is Indianapolis. I would say keep an eye on them if they get off to a good start, but that didn’t work out too well last year now did it?

24

KANSAS CITY

The defense has long been a sore spot for them and allowed at least 22 points to all but two opponents last year, a shocking 56-10 win over Atlanta and similarly stunning 45-17 victory over Denver. Six times they allowed at least 30, good for negative points in most fantasy leagues. Only one team allowed more total yards and they were dead last in passing yards and #29 in points given up. One quiet thing they did was add Colquitt to punt the football, giving their defense a few more yards and perhaps pinning the opposing offense on occasion. The draft also produced two linebackers who can make a difference plus a corner and end on day two who might add depth. Bringing in Bell (LB) Knight (SS) and Surtain (CB) won’t hurt either. Overall this group is very much improved, but enough to be a fantasy factor? I doubt it.

25

ARIZONA

Most teams last year got ahead of them and just stood pat, running the ball until the game ended. That led to favorable stats in pass defense (#9) and points (#12). Still, in half of their games they allowed at least 23 points (28.9 average) while half the time playing well enough to hold teams at 17 or less (11.4 average). That’s enough to drive you mad trying to play the match-up, especially with previously struggling Buffalo posts 38 while juggernaut St. Louis posts just 7. They added two desperately needed corners in the draft and a decent linebacker, but this is not a very deep defense overall. I would rate at least 10, possibly 12 of their opponents as having a good offense including both FFL playoff opponents (at Houston then Philadelphia, although their starters might get rested). If you want a positive angle, it would be that some think they will surge offensively behind Warner and be a sleeper to win the West. You’ll find that out early and have plenty of time to pick them up, but don’t count on it.

26

NEW ORLEANS

You might as well put a 20 up before the game starts, or so it seemed last year. That was the case in the first dozen games when every team hit that number before they finished 4-0 by giving up 13, 17, 13 and 18. Still, they were the worst in yards allowed and finished in the bottom five in total points and pass/rush yards given up. There are a few good players on this defense, notably three at defensive end so while they finished in the middle of the NFL for sacks that could change. Really this is going to be a defense that no one in your league will want because they allow too many points. If their late season surge in rematches against their division opponents is a sign of things to come that perception could change because of course they get six games against those teams this year. They also draw the Giants, Dolphins and Bears who aren’t exactly offensive powers. Finally, they are home for the FFL playoffs, albeit against better then average offenses in Carolina and Detroit. Not a great option, but keep an eye on them.

27

ST. LOUIS

Teams ran on them with regularity last year (#29) and scored a lot too (#25). Nine times they gave up at least 27 points and one of the times they didn’t was against Philly’s second string. They also yielded 20 and 47 in the playoffs. An NFL low 6 picks didn’t help them either, which is probably why three of their first five draft picks went to the secondary. They added linebackers Claiborne and Coakley, but does that excite you? Their biggest plus is drawing San Francisco when most FFL title games are played (week 16) after holding them to 20 points in two games last year.

28

NY GIANTS

This once proud unit got beaten up pretty good last year, especially late when they were worn down by an offense that sputtering behind clueless rookie Eli Manning. In the first 7 games of the season just two teams scored more than 14 points on them, but in the last 9 that was the minimum they allowed with 6 opponents posting at least 23 points while averaging 26. Teams pretty much just ran over them last year (134.8 yards per game, #28) and didn’t even need to throw the ball it was so bad. The Eli trade crippled their draft unless Webster (CB) and Tuck (DE) both make a surprising immediate impact. They are the worst team in their division so they will get beat up on again. I would probably rank 11 of their opponents as having a good offense, not counting fickle Washington (who they get twice of course) on that list. This is a bottom shelf option.

29

GREEN BAY

Everyone knows that Favre wanted more defensive help to boost his title hopes, but they haven’t gotten it. They picked off just 8 passes last year, the second lowest total in the NFL and forced just 11 fumbles, the fifth lowest total. They drafted four players overall in the secondary, but lost McKenzie and Sharper after getting killed by the pass in 2004 (#25). Half of their opponents scored at least 20 points, and they allowed at least 28 seven times if you throw in their 31-17 playoff loss. That’s a fantasy killer. I can’t see any reason to think they will be better this season facing holdouts and after personnel defections. If there is a bright spot, you might pick them up in your fantasy title game (week 16) when they host Chicago. That’s about the only time they will have any value.

30

CLEVELAND

The only help in the draft was via two Sooners in the secondary, and the line was sent to Denver which isn’t such a bad thing given how badly they were run over. In all ten teams scored at least 19 points on them, making their 20-3 opening win over Baltimore an aberration. They had a three game stretch where they gave up 58, 42 and 37 after earlier having given up 34 on two occasions. Their numbers were terrible in all the fantasy categories and if you need a nail in the coffin it is that they visit Oakland and host Pittsburgh during the FFL playoffs. Just say no to their defense, period.

31

SAN FRANCISCO

The only time they held a team under 21 points last year was a 16-6 loss in St. Louis, ironically. In half of their games they allowed at least 28 and with an offense that did no better than 14 in half of their games. The draft didn’t help because they waited until the fifth round before taking a defender. They were hurt by injuries last year so if players stay healthy that will help. Going on a three game road trip to Seattle, Jacksonville and St. Louis while the FFL playoffs are happening certainly won’t and that kills their value even more. This is a unit that you might never be able to start.

32

TENNESSEE

Their season was littered with bad beatings as they finished low in total yards (#27) and points allowed (#30). Only twice did they hold a team to less than 19 points, an opening 17-7 win in Miami and shocking 18-15 victory at Jacksonville. Outside of Florida they got crushed, hammered for at least 31 points on seven occasions including five in a row late in the year when teams averaged an astounding 41.6 points against them. Those kinds of numbers are tough to ignore and they lost talent in free agency because they are in cap hell. Even worse is that the only impact rookie on defense figures to be Adam Jones who takes the place of Samari Rolle. This defense is going to get killed. If you want a happy note, they do make the Florida trip again in the final two weeks of the season.