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Fantasy Football 2005 free Kicker cheat sheet

Oh those dastardly kickers...

1

Vanderjagt (IND)

To give you an idea how hard it is to be consistent in scoring points as a kicker, only six players have averaged at least 120 per 16 starts over the past three seasons among regular kickers. Vandy tops the list (129.02). He is sixth in attempts at 31.67 (two behind the leader) so he gets plenty of chances. He also makes the most of them, ranking #3 in conversion (86.02%) crucial to his success. The “idiot kicker” has team officials upset over his kickoffs, but I doubt he will lose his place kicking job. Ironically, the prior season was his huge one before the rule interpretation took away all of his field goal attempts. I expect there to be a little more leniency this year (i.e. they let it go at the six or seven yard mark instead of a firm five) and that could help his value. Kicking indoors is huge and he has proven in the past that he can get it done even in bad weather as he proved on a memorable snow game against Denver. The offense is second to none. You just have to hope they stall once in a while and he doesn’t get drunk on the radio again.

2

Vinatieri (NE)

He is more than just a guy with two Super Bowl winning kicks. He has a career average of 117.3 points with a low of 106 while coming off a career high 141. He has at least 24 field goals and 29 attempts in every season and ranks #4 over the past three seasons in accuracy (85.57%) with a career mark of 82.1%. If there is a fantasy gripe it would be that his 40+ average is only 68.52% overall so he won’t help you get the extra points for long ones, but he converted on 11/12 last season from 40-49 and missed his only crack from beyond 50. I see a lot of offensive minded teams on the schedule who could challenge the Patriot defense. I think for someone who has never missed a game or been a point stinker that he is a very good call. 

3

Akers (PHI)

Over five seasons he has averaged a hefty 121 points while staying in the top 5 in both field goals made and attempted during the past three seasons. He also hasn’t missed a game due to injury and is over 70% from 40 yards and beyond. If the team rests their starters during the crucial FFL playoffs it could hurt him because obviously the offense suffers or maybe they just squeak into range for field goals to increase his value. Making things even better from him is the road schedule which has two dome games plus the Dallas half dome with no road games in inclement weather unless it is a messy Thanksgiving in New York. Overall he is a very strong kicker who always converts at least 83% of his tries and is the fifth most accurate (85.26%) over the past three seasons.

4

Janikowski (OAK)

If there is a sleeping giant at the position, he is it. All he has done over the past two seasons is to knock through 88.7% of his field goals. All five of his seasons have produced at least a 51 yard field goal and he has 114.5 points per 16 starts. Think of it this way, he posted 106 points last year on a team that couldn’t run the ball to save their life. Now they have Jordan and that #18 out wide running routes. Do you think he might get a few more shots at extra points (#19 with 32) and field goals (#11 with 28) this year? The team has a daunting schedule and probably won’t wind up with a winning record, but it will sure be fun to watch them score. I am looking for him to wind up with at least 35 field goal attempts and 45-50 extra points. That’s going to put him in the area of 130-145 points and you can take that to the bank.

5

Stover (BAL)

He was once huge in FFL, but fell back a bit recently although he still sits at #8 in average points (118.13) during the past three seasons. On the other hand, no one has been more accurate (87.37%) over that span and his average field goals per 16 starts (28.26) ranks #2. I know I don’t need to tell you what happens to his attempts (#6, 32.34) now that the team has some threats at receiver, right? You can’t really blame him for having mediocre seasons earlier in his career with bad “old” Browns teams and he does have 8 seasons with at least 110 points with a string of six years in a row converting at least 84% of his attempts. For his career he has made only 64.5% of his kicks over 40 yards, but the past three seasons that number jumps to 75%. I really like him to make a big jump once he gets back into the high 30’s in attempts and starts kicking more extra points. The new offense will make that possible.

6

Elam (DEN)

In 12 seasons as a pro he has never failed to score 103 points and only three times has been under 116. Nine times he has made at least 26 field goals and eight times he had attempted at least 34. His career conversion (79.6%) is not outstanding though and five times he has been at 75.0% or worse kicking in the Mile High air. Averaging 2.83 field goals beyond 50 yards and 6.17 from 40-49 has really boosted his fantasy value even with a low conversion beyond 40 yards (62%) for his career. Bringing in a rookie doesn’t concern me, and the offense is always going to move the ball, I just hate wondering if this is going to be one of those seasons when he starts missing a few. Still, the team is going to be heads up with an offensive minded AFC West six times this year and those games figure to be high scoring. On that alone he is a top 10 player, the Mile High air moves him up a little more.

7

Wilkins (STL)

If you’re a believer in trends it is probably time to jump on the Wilkins express. For some reason the Rams like odd years and this certainly translates to their kicker. During the 1999, 2001 and 2003 seasons he averages a gaudy 138 points with 27.3 field goals, while in the three subsequent even years those numbers drop to 91 points and 18.3 field goals. What gives? Who really knows, but I’m not sure you want to be on the sidelines when the coach has finally made a smart move by throwing Steven Jackson into the starting lineup and actually might try driving the ball down the field once in a while. It’s strange for Martz to think that way, but it just might happen. He hasn’t been great from beyond 40 yards (64.5% career) but the last two seasons he is 8/9 from 50+ so that should count for something. During his time as a regular, which spans one year in San Francisco plus the past eight in St. Louis he does average 112 points but again it has been up and down since he joined the Rams. I can be a bit of a gambler and I like the wide open offense and having a dome kicker. He draws two road games in domes plus a late season trip to semi-dome Dallas while playing in mild weather San Francisco and Arizona early on. That’s a really favorable schedule for a kicker.

8

Longwell (GB)

You might be surprised to know that he is fifth in points (122.67) during the past three seasons. He was #9 in field goals made (25.00) and during an 8 year career has logged 120 point seasons six times. Now that’s consistency. He hasn’t done a great deal from beyond 40 yards since he logged 16 of them back in 2000, ranging from 7 to 8 of them each year since, but has at least one past 49 per campaign since 1999. In other words he is a good, but not great player at the position. Consistency certainly counts at this position and you don’t really need to worry about him having a really bad season because after his rookie year (80%) he has been over 82% in all but the troubling 2001 season (64.5% and career low 104 points) while ranking #6 during the past three seasons (85.23%). He gets three trips to dome stadiums this season which aren’t friendly to Favre but certainly will help his distance. I think he is a nice, conservative selection.

9

Reed (PIT)

Heinz Field is supposed to be a tough place to kick, but don’t tell that to him. Despite having to kick there he has managed 22 field goals beyond 40 yards in his 38 career games (9.26 per season). He really popped onto the scene last year with 124 points on 28/33 with a nice 70% from 40+ and two kicks beyond 50. His career 81% isn’t lights out, but it works and the offense certainly got better with the addition of three weapons while waving goodbye to the inconsistent Burress. To make things sweeter, he won’t be kicking at Heinz during your FFL playoffs in weeks 15-16. Instead he goes to the dome in Minnesota and then Cleveland where they figure to pound the Browns. He doesn’t have a long track record of 110+ seasons like some of the other guys, but the upside is certainly there for him to build on last year’s success. 

10

Hanson (DET)

Things haven’t gone all that well for him lately with just 94.5 points per season over the last four, but he does have eight seasons with 100+ points and 11 with 93 or more during his thirteen year career. Just twice has he failed to make at least 21 field goals in a season and he makes 81.1% of his kicks overall including a gaudy 87.34% (#2 in NFL) during the last three years. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Ten times he has hit at least 80% of his kicks and in 2003 he made all 4 of his 50+ yard attempts. For his career he is not great beyond 40 overall (62.3%) but here’s the rub. The team is looking to explode on offense. He tried only 26.33 field goals per 16 starts (#25) over the past three seasons. Now it is Williams & Williams wide and Jones running the ball while either Harrington or Garcia runs the show. That offense really can’t miss which should boost him at least over the 120 point range. Keeping the good news coming he plays 10 games indoors plus one in Dallas’ half dome so his only true trips outdoors after October 23 are a December date in Green Bay and the meaningless (for FFL) finale in Pittsburgh. Put him on your radar and give the savvy veteran a chance. It will pay off big.

11

Graham (CIN)

He really stepped up with a nice season in 2004, finishing with 27 field goals and converting almost all his efforts (87.1%) to finish with 122 points. He was also a solid 83.3% beyond 40 yards including 3/4 from 50+. He is definitely an up and comer at the position, especially on a team with a growing young offense. I like the ground game with Rudi Johnson, more so if Chris Perry is ready to relieve him. I love the passing game in the hands of Palmer given that he has two stud starters with a bevy of young players killing each other for the #3 and #4 spots with plenty of talent. He gets a dome game (at Detroit) during your FFL semifinals and they host Buffalo in the championship week which could turn out to be a high scoring affair. I just get a good vibe about him all the way around so if you’re into waiting a while for a lesser known kicker this is the player to target. He might not even get drafted in some leagues because most of the people who play FFL don’t know nearly as much as I do.

12

Carney (NO)

For some reason I have always believed in this guy. He has nine seasons with at least 100 points including the past four while posting at least 95 points in 11 of the past 12 seasons he played a relative full slate. He doesn’t get it out beyond 50 yards very often (1.34 per 16 starts) but he has 11 years with 80%+ of his field goals made. Playing in a strong offense he ranks #9 in field goals made (25.00) over the past three seasons with the team confident enough to send him out 29+ times during 10 separate seasons. Sure he’s 40 years old but the life of a kicker extends that far. Hell, the life of a major league pitcher does too so don’t let that bother you too much although you are risking injury more with him over the younger bucks. His recent dip in accuracy (73.3% and 81.5% the past two years) does concern me, but increased attempts could offset that. The Saints score 21 points every week and it would take him getting hurt or fired not to post 110 points this season. He also gets 11 games in a dome this season and his only trip outside after Thanksgiving is the meaningless season finale in Tampa Bay.

12

Edinger (MIN)

In an off-season flooded with far more high profile additions and subtractions, he might be a gem of a pickup. He never had an offense in Chicago and while he had a poor 75.3% conversion rate over his five seasons there it will be vastly easier to kick in the dome than it was at windy Soldier Field. He also has great distance with an astounding 13/19 (68.4%) from 50+ and solid 70.2% from 40-49. Last year old man Andersen scored just 99 points for them, but they were afraid to cart him out past about 43 yards. That will be no problem for Edinger and even with Moss gone this offense can still move the ball down the field. I think it will be a breeze for him to get into the 120 point range so ignore his numbers with the Bears and consider his stock rising.

13

Brown (SEA)

I will tell you right off the bat that it is impressive to see a kicker go 7/8 (87.5%) from beyond 40 yards as he did last year. For a second year player he was almost perfect at 23/25 (92%) after an uneven rookie (73.3%). Ironically the accuracy didn’t help him much because although he had one more field goal (23 to 22) his points fell (114 to 109). That’s why picking a kicker can drive you nuts. Now the offense is in a bit of a flux with the Alexander distraction and unrest at receiver since Koren Robinson was sent packing. I don’t think Hasselbeck was worth franchise money, but they disagreed and now it’s on him. The weather can sometimes become a factor in the Pacific Northwest so an offensive friendly tilt in FFL championship week (Indianapolis) might not be so enticing. The semifinal trip to Tennessee should be nice though. Again, I like a player who has a few seasons under his belt to see some consistent production. More than half the regular kickers in the NFL (17) kicked more field goals than he did and at some point you have to wonder if the coach might have held him back a few times in favor of a punt. We’ll see if that loosens up this season before boosting him in 2006. 

14

Kaeding (SD)

As part of the bounty earned for shipping Eli to the Big Apple he had a reasonably successful rookie season. He hit 80% of his kicks for 114 points and was a sweet 8/11 (72.7%) from beyond 40 yards. He choked in the playoffs, but he can’t be perfect, right? The thing is, the Chargers were #3 in scoring offense last year so given that you would expect more out of him. Kicking is a weird thing because obviously a team can score four field goals leaving the kicker with 12 points or two touchdowns to leave him with just 2 points. What I’m trying to get across is that without a track record of a few seasons we have no idea what he is capable of doing if he gets more than 25 attempts (17 kickers had more, over half the league). I like the offense, especially with Caldwell healthy, McCardell on board from day one and Jackson coming in to bookend Gates. It’s not enough for me to really endorse him though because his confidence might be shaken after what happened to him in the playoffs. If he looks like it isn’t he could be a nice wire pickup, but I don’t recommend him as your starter.

15

Tynes (KC)

You would think the kicker on a team that scored 483 points would have had a better season, but he kicked just 17 field goals with a terrible average (73.9%, #27 in the NFL) to finish with 109 points. To tell you how poorly he did, only Chicago’s Edinger had fewer field goals made and they were playing with rejects at quarterback. He has an offensive juggernaut. Is there a bright spot? Not really, he was just 50% beyond 40 yards (5/10) with a long of an even 50. I suppose you can argue that the team does have that great offense which is sure to provide him with more than 23 opportunities this season (#24 in NFL) but he might not convert enough of them for it to matter. Sure there is upside to him given that he is paired with a stud rookie punter and more tools on defense, both of which figure to improve the field position for the offense. There is also no track record or guarantee that he won’t be fired in midseason for one of many more reliable players on the unemployment line.

16

Peterson (ATL)

You know your kicker sucks when you replace him with a guy who has already been on five different teams while making 78.2% of his kicks for his career. I’ll say this, he’s a pretty good 72.9% from 40-49 and made two of four from 50+ last season. Over his many travels he does actually average 105.1 points per 16 starts, which isn’t bad and he joins an offense with a great running game and improving passing attack. They also get it done on defense to create a lot of field goal attempts. He has never made indoors his home so that could be a real boost for him as well. Mora knew what he was getting from his old team and I believe he has a bit of sleeper potential on sheer numbers, even if he doesn’t have much accuracy.

17

Nugent (NYJ)

Obviously the Jets expect big things from the Ohio State rookie and I can’t argue with them. He has a booming leg and figures to capitalize on an offense that helped Doug Brien reach 105 points in each of the past two seasons. I favor him a lot over the recent rookie kickers because quite frankly he is better. The Meadowlands can be a little tricky and that’s the really tough part about ranking him. With three of the opening five at home it will give you an idea how he handles it, but the winds don’t really pick up until later in the season when the free agent wire tends to dry up. He’ll kick indoors only once on the road and never on turf. I feel like he is a bit of a risky play and I would rather take chances on guys like Graham and Hanson before an untested rookie. I’m not saying he won’t be good, just that it isn’t a lock for it to happen this year.

18

Kasay (CAR)

If he didn’t have a leg on him he wouldn’t have 10 separate seasons with a field goal long of at least 52 yards. He has hit 64.8% of his field goals beyond 40 yards and 52% from past 50. Nine times in his career he has two or more from 50+ but the problem is total scoring. Only four times has he topped 100 points and one of those was as a rookie in Seattle (1991). He had a magical year in 1996 (145) when they went to the NFC title game and again when they went to the 2003 Super Bowl (125) but that’s about it. I like the fact that he has booted 85% of his kicks through the big fork over the past two seasons, but I don’t like him having missed 19 games due to injury over the past five seasons. If you like to take chances he is your guy. Calling the big blind with 10/6 off suit sometimes pays off, but you’re probably not going to make a living doing that.

20

Dawson (CLE)

You have to feel sorry for anyone who walks into the expansion “new” Browns franchise and has to kick for them. It is hard to believe that he attempted just 29 kicks over his first two seasons, totaling a mere 106 points. Somehow he has had seasons with 95, 100 and 100 since then with an injury shortened 74 (in 13 games) mixed in. The thing is he has a nice 81.8% career mark and has punched in 84% over the last two years. He is also 5/6 from 50+ during his career. I just don’t know how much opportunity this offense can provide him. Last year saw him with career highs in field goals (24) and attempts (29) but it still left him outside the fantasy world unless you start three kickers. If you do, seek immediate psychiatric help. I know the offense will be better, so that should jump his numbers up and actually he makes a nice bye week player in a pinch.

19

Scobee (JAX)

Well as a rookie he connected on 71.4% of his kicks from 40-49 yards, but just 77.4% overall to finish with 93 points on a struggling offense. I guess that begs the question of how much they improved that situation since last year. Not much in my eyes because they took chances at receiver with guys like the rookie Matt Jones while not helping the unreliable Fred Taylor in the backfield. Really the potential I see in him is to turn into a poor man’s Stover from Baltimore’s glory days. He will get a lot of attempts because the offense can’t punch it in. That could to an unexpectedly good season or it might not.

21

Mare (MIA)

For a while he was a big time fantasy kicker, especially with his 144 point bomb in the 1999 season. He had three others over 114 points and until last year (he played just 11 games) had always had at least 96. Recently though his average has dipped to 76.32% over the past three seasons (#26 in the NFL) following two seasons over 90%. What has kept him alive in fantasy circles is that from 40+ yards he is right there with the top kickers (68.6%) and has 8 from 50+ during the last three seasons. Now you have to start wondering about his status, how much the team really improved thanks to the addition of the R&R backfield and what they are going to do at quarterback. Those are a lot of questions for a player who has averaged just 20.88 field goals made per 16 starts the past four seasons. You can do worse, but he is just not a player worth counting on.

22

Cundiff (DAL)

His rookie year (2002) was pretty ugly with 61 points, which explains why just about every regular kicker in the NFL has a better average in points per 16 starts than him (85.45) over the past three seasons. He was a solid 9/13 (69.2%) from 40-49 last year, missing both times from 50+. The offense didn’t get much attention, but the defense got a complete overhaul which should put him in position to do more than the 24.7 field goal attempts he has in his three year career. I want to see if he can really post the numbers before I count on him as my kicker. He might not even be my first choice as a bye week player.

23

Feely (ATL)

He will try to take his act outdoors after wearing out his welcome in Atlanta. Making just 77.2% of your kicks over four seasons will do that. His career high is just 80% and the offense turned him into a fantasy factor because he still found a way to average 109 points on 24.5 field goals per season. Going 3/10 from 50+ is also a bad sign, as is his 62.9% number from 40-49 yards on his career. Is kicking in the wind at the Meadowlands supposed to help him? I just don’t understand this move from the Giants, but I also didn’t get giving up so much for Eli, including a draft pick that was used on Kaeding who now kicks for the Chargers. If you can figure out a reason why his numbers will suddenly jump over 100 points after two seasons with 89 and 94 on a team with a far superior offense that plays indoors I’m listening. You might want to consider therapy if you try making that argument though. He’s a regular kicker with no competition and that’s about the only positive thing I can say about him.

 

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