1

Manning (IND)

I’ve been touting him as the best true FFL quarterback for years and now I have to reel in everyone trying to put him at the #1 overall spot. That’s called irony. He hasn’t failed to throw for 4,100 yards since his rookie season and he has at least 26 touchdowns every season while losing an amazingly low 12 fumbles in 112 games. Now everyone is taking him based on 49 scores but that was only his second trip past 30 and the first time he finished a season in triple digits for QB rating. He might hit 40 again, and then again if the defense improves they could run the ball a lot more. Leave him as the clear cut best quarterback and don’t jump over yourself to draft him in the top 3 overall.

2

Culpepper (MIN)

He is third in yards and touchdowns over the past 3 years with an NFL high 16 rushing scores (take that Vick). The big knock is that he also leads in a fantasy killer category with 63 turnovers. He has improved in that department because after three seasons with 20+ turnovers the past two years produced 17 and 15. The concern is fumbles with 73 in 74 career starts and 31 lost although last year’s 4 lost was a career low. I punched up the stats from the five games Moss missed plus the two where he was obviously not a factor, and put that into a full season. The figure was 3,869 yards passing with 27.4 touchdowns and 20.6 turnovers. All of those are worse than his actual 2004 totals, but not enough to drop him in the rankings. Burleson is a good receiver, Robinson is underrated and Williamson is fast.

3

Bulger (STL)

Using data from the past three seasons, only Peyton has a better average season (total yards divided by games played times 16) than Bulger’s 4,282. He is seventh in touchdown passes (25.3) and fifth in rushing scores (3.56) if you can believe it. Like Daunte, he needs to control the turnovers and he did drop his interceptions by 8 and fumbles lost by 2 last year. I believe more of a balanced offense will help him protect the football and although it might hurt his yardage I believe he makes up for that with touchdown throws. He has been waiting to explode in that department, and we all know he has the weapons. There are some emerging receivers behind Holt and Bruce who could surprise fantasy owners in 2005. You can quietly draft him in the fourth round.

4

Brady (NE)

I think it is time to give him his due in the fantasy world. He is fifth in passing yards over the last three seasons and fourth in passing touchdowns. His turnover average is solid (18.0) and he is one of just five quarterbacks to start and finish up every game. The consistency is also there with just 144 passing yards separating his high and low over those three seasons. In other words, you know what you are getting with him. They have a little bit of turnover at the receiver position with Patten taking 800 & 7 out of town as probably their most productive receiver, but they added underachieving Terrell (Brady’s college target) and oft injured Dwight while sooner or later Branch might play a full season. If you are happy with 3,600 yards and 25 touchdowns out of your quarterback he is a very safe play, especially since you can grab him in the sixth to eighth round of your draft thanks to stupid owners.

5

McNabb (PHI)

Owens finally put him over the top and now some think his status weighs heavily on Donovan’s continued success. Don’t forget that he put up a pair of outings with 111+ quarterback ratings in the playoffs with T.O. in street clothes, tossing two touchdowns in each game with no turnovers and 233 yards per game. His rushing yardage total has gone down every season since his career high (629) in 2000 with a career low (220) last year but he still has 12 rushing scores over the past three seasons putting him #2 in the NFL. He also has the third lowest turnover rate (15.20 per 16 games played) among guys who have at least 38 starts the past three years. They added Reggie Brown in the draft and if Owens can get in gear the risk could be well worth it. He only has one season yardage total past the mediocre 3,365 yard mark that was his best until last season, and with only two trips past 21 touchdown throws there are reasons for caution too, but if he hangs around long enough (late second round to early third round) you should be tempted.

6

Favre (GB)

He is fourth in passing yards and second in touchdown throws over the past three seasons, but his carelessness in the form of 61 turnovers (second highest total) can drive fantasy owners batty. He averages 20.3 giveaways per 16 games played over the course of a long career, so that won’t change. Not since 1992 has he had fewer than 17 turnovers and last year’s 18 was his first trip under 20 since 1996. Still, he makes a killing with the touchdown passes, averaging 30.3 over the past four years. His yardage total dipped in 2003 (3,361) before going over 4,000 last year for the first time since 1999. What does it all mean? Lots of touchdowns, a good amount of yards and too many turnovers to put him higher up this list. The receivers haven’t gotten better and unless something changes neither has the defense, which could actually cause him to pass the ball more leading to those nasty turnovers. He could turn in a surprising season on the high or low side, but I doubt he veers from the 3,400-3,600 yard and 28-32 touchdown range. The Walker and Franks contract situations are also a concern.

7

Collins (OAK)

He has never had a problem passing for a ton of yards. His average per start over the past three years works out to 3,973 to rank #5 in the NFL. He has been strong for five years really because that figure is 3,851 over that stretch. One issue is touchdown passes and that’s a big one in the fantasy world. Last year’s 21 (in 14 games mind you) was just his second trip past 20 over his career. The resolution could be Randy Moss who is a touchdown machine who averages almost a score per game all by himself. That should boost him into the mid 20’s range. A bigger concern is turnovers with 23.1 per 16 games played over his career. Only one player with 30+ games played during the past three years has a higher turnover rate than Collins. Will a better ground game help him? It could, and a healthier line with improving talent is also a positive. All in all, he’s the new Trent Green in that he should be a guy you can grab cheaply and ride to good numbers most weeks. His value will be even higher if you know when to spot bench him.

8

Brooks (NO)

For a guy that has averaged 3,690 yards during his four full seasons as a starter with 24.5 touchdown passes fantasy owners love and hate him. That’s because 20.3 turnovers per season have even his real owners disgruntled with him enough to draft Adrian McPherson. The interceptions had been falling until he tossed 16 last year. His fumbles have been in double digits each of those four seasons, but he lost just two last year. More cause for concern is that their drafted receiver Lyman is done after they lost Pathon in free agency. Stallworth hasn’t lived up to expectations and while Horn just got paid he is 33 and one has to wonder when he is going to slow down or get hurt. Henderson hasn’t done much to warrant his #50 overall selection and Boo Williams is another underachiever at tight end. Having someone like McPherson behind him could light a fire or create a fantasy nightmare if he hits the field in relief. I think he is a proven, reliable performer until we see otherwise. With him hanging around into the sixth to eighth rounds or even later he’s a nice solution if you lose out on the premiere guys.

9

Green (KC)

It might surprise you that no player other than Peyton has more passing yards than him over the past three seasons. Since joining the Chiefs, he has averaged 4,026 yards passing (4 years). Over the past three years his turnover rate is the fourth best among guys with at least 38 starts, but his 21 last year made fantasy owners remember the 28 he dropped in 2001. There are concerns though. The receivers have never been good and it feels like Kennison is on fumes while Morton burned out of town after being the only one other than Eddie or Gonzo to exceed 278 yards for them. They drafted Thorpe, but he’s not going to be a factor. If Holmes can’t regain his form, his replacement Larry Johnson is not as good out of the backfield which could also hurt Green’s production. Gonzalez had a career year and that just tells me he really has nowhere to go but down from 1,258 yards receiving from the tight end position. On the plus side, he’s a guy you can usually grab late, but that might also disappear after his 4,591 yards passing last year.

10

Vick (ATL)

I’m just tired of the hype surrounding a guy who has never thrown for 3,000 yards, started all 16 games, or thrown for more than 16 touchdowns. Fantasy owners call him an additional running back and after last year’s 902 yards and 3 touchdowns they might be right. However, with only 2,313 passing yards and 19 turnovers is that really enough to make up for it? I suppose it depends on your scoring system. Even if that translates into an additional say 2,200 passing yards to almost double his total, the touchdown/turnover figures don’t put him higher on this list. That being said, the addition of rookie Roddy White could be the spark he needs to start throwing the ball. I don’t think he runs for 700 yards this season, but he could throw for over 3,000 with 20 touchdowns. I like Price sliding back into the shadows and if Jenkins can wake up they might actually have a nice set of receivers all of a sudden.

11

Plummer (DEN)

He lived up to a little of the hype last year with career highs in yards (4,089) and touchdowns (27) but let’s not call him a safe bet at this point. That was just his third trip past 3,000 yards passing and his first season with more than 18 touchdowns. He also had 21 turnovers including throwing 20 interceptions for the fifth time in his eight year career. It would be six if he had played more than 10 games his rookie year (15 picks). His 24.1 turnovers per 16 games is atrocious. In half the games last year he had multiple turnovers and the only good thing I can say is that he doesn’t fumble much with just 8.4 per 16 games and only 3.7 of those are lost during his career. Rod Smith had a surge after fading in recent seasons while Lelie had a monster 20.1 yard average for his first 1,000 yard season. Watts at least had some production (385 yards on 31 catches) during his rookie season and Putzier is a good tight end while I suppose Rice provides some leadership. With the ground game dominant the offense will put up plenty of points and if the turnovers don’t bother you it is reasonable to expect another 3,500/24 season out of him at a bare minimum.

12

Delhomme (CAR)

Fantasy owners got a nice boost out of his 3,886 yards and 29 passing touchdowns last year, but 20 turnovers brought them down to earth. Still, this is a guy who had 248+ yards in half the games last season and 11 multiple touchdown games (including one with a rushing score). The better news is that down the stretch he got his interceptions under control. The first seven games produced 11 picks in 240 attempts while the final nine games he had only 4 in 293 attempts. He had to lead his team from behind a lot last year and the biggest knock on his future might be losing by far his most productive receiver in Muhammad who accounted for 36% of the yards and 55% of the touchdowns Jake had. The good news is that Colbert had a great rookie season and Steve Smith is returning from a season ending injury. If Foster and incoming rookie Shelton can keep the ground game going he won’t be matching the yardage total of last year, and I don’t think he will meet the touchdown pass total either. In other words, he is clearly one of the last starter quality guys coming off the draft board. If it is a 12 or 14 team league you should be okay with him, but don’t draft him thinking he will post similar numbers to last season.

13

Hasselbeck (SEA)

This is the part of the list when you start looking for potential instead of actual past proven production. He broke through in 2003 with 3,841 yards and 26 touchdowns and some will look at last year as a drop off. It really wasn’t because his yards per game actually went up 1.5 yards per game and had he played the extra two games he was projected to finish with just one less touchdown pass. His turnover total is low with just 1 per game over the past three seasons, and he could get a boost in his receiver production this season. Koren Robinson could have elevated his game but the team dumped him and picked up career #3 (or #4) guys Pathon and Jurevicius for insurance. In a soft division he also has plenty of fantasy friendly games so he is someone to watch for as you seek out a top notch backup or if you let the quality starters pass you by.

14

Palmer (CIN)

He didn’t quite make it through his first full season as a starter, but the way he finished is cause for a lot of optimism. In the final 4 games he had 11 touchdowns with an average of 250 yards passing although he did throw 6 picks (3 in one game) during that stretch. Five of his thirteen games he had at least 248 yards passing and he averaged a strong 223 which projects to 3,565 for a full year. The team drafted talented but troubled Chris Henry and also picked up Tab Perry because they don’t know about the health of Washington. In other words, they have weapons and a ground game. The downside to him seems to be that he gets one quarter of his schedule against the Steelers and Ravens. However, last year he managed 6 touchdowns against 9 turnovers in those games with 257 yards passing. He killed the Ravens with 316 and 382 yards. Can he repeat that? We’ll see, but he’s a very solid backup quarterback in FFL.

15

Brees (SD)

Let’s be realistic, he had an absolute career year in 2004 and still only managed to pass for 3,159 yards although it was 3,478 if you replace the game he sat with his playoff game. After turning it over 34 times in 27 games (with 28 TD) the prior two seasons he dropped that number to 9, throwing 27 touchdown passes (29 including the playoff game) and mixing in two rushing scores. The TD/INT ratio made him a fantasy factor because the yards weren’t really there. Only four times did he throw for over 230 yards last year, but 9 times he had multiple scores (including a game with a rushing TD) and only twice did he commit more than one turnover. The addition of Vincent Jackson in the draft plus a full season out of McCardell and Caldwell could bolster his yardage. He will certainly be playing for a big contract as the team chooses between him and Philip Rivers. Clearly he has the surrounding talent to pass for 3,500 to 3,600 yards and he has already shown that using a guy like Gates he can pass for a lot of scores. I know teams will gang up on Gates more in the red zone, so I think you’ll see a drop in scores and a boost in yardage. It levels out to him being a capable starter in a 12 or 14 team league, and great backup in other leagues. Let’s also not forget that 9 of his 27 touchdowns came in two games.

16

Roethlisberger (PIT)

If you throw his two playoff games against the Jets and Patriots into the mix he played 16 games last year, finishing with a paltry 3,028 yards passing with 20 touchdowns against 16 interceptions (5 in the playoffs). An interesting stat is that he fumbled just twice, losing both of them. That’s a really low number considering the rest of the quarterbacks with 11+ starts averaged 8.85 fumbles. This is where we note that the offensive line protecting him had some turnover and he lost a starting receiver. When Burress was hurt last year he averaged 203 yards passing with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, almost identical to his season overall. Aside from that, now Randle El’s role expands, they drafted another big receiver in Fred Gibson and grabbed Cedrick Wilson in free agency. They also stole tight end Heath Miller who will be their first threat at the position since Eric Green. The group is deeper and more well rounded which could improve his numbers. They don’t want him throwing a lot of passes (he had 349 including the playoffs, 21.8 per game) so what you’ll get is a good chance for a no turnover game, probably over 200 yards and a touchdown or two. These are not great figures, but they can get you through a bye week. On the other hand, his game could hit the next level and he might supplant your starter if you waited past the first few rounds to get one.

17

Carr (HOU)

I think you can qualify 2004 as a breakthrough season for him as his yardage total zoomed to 3,531 yards which represents 56 more yards per game than the first two years of his young career. The bad part is that after opening the season with at least 228 yards in all of the first 8 games, he never exceeded 220 after that, averaging a putrid 171.1 yards. Touchdowns are also a concern. Yes, he threw for 16 which was a big jump over the 9 he had the previous two years, but after running for 5 during those other 28 games he failed to run for any last year. He also had just three multiple touchdown games while five times suffering through multiple turnover games. Speaking of turnovers, naturally his rookie season was rough (21) but since then he has limited it to a whisker over 1 per game. I wanted them to attack receiver earlier in the draft, but they might have found a running mate to Andre Johnson early on day two in Jerome Mathis. Gaffney has actually started to show signs of progressing and would be a nice #3 in this young group. Billy Miller’s numbers at tight end have fallen into a black hole and Joppru is going to miss the season for the third time in a row, which is why I thought they would grab Heath Miller in the draft. With not great weapons and no history of being capable to throw a lot of touchdowns, I can’t put him in serious contention for starting except maybe in 16 team leagues. The other issue is not knowing if you’ll get the first half Carr (270.3 yards per game) or the second half one I talked about above.

18

Harrington (DET)

When picking up a backup quarterback you are looking for upside. Joey has plenty of it given the influx of talent surrounding him. The addition of a ground game with Kevin Jones is a big factor in his development, and it only gets better because he didn’t get going until the second half. Is it a coincidence that Joey had two games with 346 and 361 yards passing (two TD in each) late? Then they add Kevin Johnson, who is a nice complementary receiver, and solid tight end Pollard in free agency. To top it off they draft Mike Williams which makes the health of Charles Rogers somewhat irrelevant. Harrington had only five games with over 200 yards last year and six with multiple touchdown throws, but his QB rating, completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns have gotten better each season. His sophomore campaign saw him struggle with 22 turnovers, but he has a reasonable 32 in his other 30 games. All signs point to a good season and if you have a deep roster you can also grab Garcia because one of them is going to benefit from these weapons.

19

Pennington (NYJ)

No player has a better turnover rate (13.47 per 16 games played) over the past three years than him of guys who have hit the field 30 times. However, staying on the field himself has been a struggle with 10 games missed over that stretch. We know he can be a very accurate passer as evidenced by his 63.6% or better completion percentage the past three years. He fumbles only once every three games and has lost just five in 42 career games. The problem is that he is all potential so far, with a career high of 3,120 yards and only 29 touchdown passes in his last 23 games. Now he gets his favorite target Coles back and that is a big factor because it helps McCareins fit into a more comfortable role in his second year on the team. They really have no third quality receiver, but they did add Jolley at tight end and believe me this guy can catch the football. I don’t think Chad is reliable enough to be your first quarterback, but if you’ve got a solid player in front of him with a good history of staying healthy he can give you some great relief starts littered throughout the season on a team that will challenge for a division title.

20

Griese (TB)

He’s an interesting player. You might not realize that only eight players have more yards per projected season (his average is 3,673) with more than 10 starts over the past three years. He has 29 starts during that stretch and also ranks #12 in touchdown production (22.1 per 16). The big problem is turnovers. Throwing out his big 2000 season (19 scores, 7 turnovers in 10 games) his career average is 23.6 turnovers per 16 starts. That’s going to kill you in FFL. He gave it up 15 times in 11 games last year. He’s also one of the more unreliable players without a full season of play in seven seasons as a pro. That had to be part of the reason he left Denver after missing 12 games in four years as a starter and the last two seasons it has been an issue of not cementing the job in Miami and Tampa Bay. Still, he’s an intriguing plug-in player for the right situation for a bye week which is why he appears this high. I don’t think you want him as your full time backup unless your starter’s bye week is early though.

21

Leftwich (JAX)

Straight up the biggest issue is surrounding talent. Jimmy Smith was once a dominant force and his numbers surged last season after two down years, but he is 36. Edwards was the only other receiver on the radar with just 533 yards, and that was his best season since picking up 714 as a Pittsburgh rookie in 1999. Wilford had two game winning touchdowns to open the season and has the size to be a threat close to the goal line, but never scored after that and finished with just 271 yards. Their #9 overall pick Reggie Williams was almost invisible with 268 yards, catching more than 3 passes just twice with only one game over 40 yards (it was 62 if you’re curious). So what do they do in the draft when Roddy White is available at receiver and Heath Miller at tight end? They pass for project/freak Matt Jones. Byron showed in a four game stretch last year that he can be dominant, averaging a stout 318.3 yards and if you extend that to eight games (he missed two due to injury during this string) the average is 280.3 and he had 10 touchdowns against 7 turnovers. He dropped his fumble number from 11 to 5 and lost only one after losing 6 as a rookie. In all he cut his turnovers in half (22 to 11). He runs a little with 4 rushing scores in 29 games. Understand that his tremendous talent is tempered by the guys he has access to utilize around him. I believe he can throw for 3,400 to 3,600 yards with 20+ touchdowns and keep his turnovers down, but a lot depends on how well Williams and Jones play. Keep an eye on him as a sleeper starter.

22

Warner (AZ)

Everyone knows what he did in an amazing stretch from 1999-2001 with 4,693 yards per 16 games played with 36.5 touchdowns although he did average 23.4 turnovers. Last year with the Giants he showed flashes of that with two games of 286 and 270 yards passing, but never threw more than 1 touchdown pass in a game. On the upside four of his eight turnovers (in 10 games) came in one contest against Chicago. The big question is how having targets named Fitzgerald, Boldin and Johnson will impact his touchdown figures. That group combined for 1,940 yards receiving (10 scores) with guys like McCown, King and Navarre throwing ducks to them. Certainly on draft day there will be people dancing with the possibilities of another 3,800 yards and 35 touchdowns. I don’t think he stays upright the entire season personally, and that costs him some slots in my rankings. He might have a few games with 250-300 yards while also throwing for a few touchdowns occasionally. I look for consistency and durability which are two things he hasn’t shown a lot of. If he slides deep into the draft and you can afford a gamble it is certainly a good move to lock him up to keep him from an opposing owner though.

23

Boller (BAL)

There will be a ton of pressure on him to perform after the team added Clayton and Mason while the assumption is that star tight end Heap is going to be back from injury. Taylor and Johnson, the 2004 starters, took their whopping combined 794 yards and 1 touchdown elsewhere, leaving Hymes and Moore (who had 6 scores between them and 616 yards) as the best incumbents but they will compete for time in the #3 slot. How much this improved set of weapons will help Boller remains to be seen, but for better or worse he is probably holding the job down. His top showing last year was 232 yards and just four times did he record multiple score games (once with a rushing TD) while five times having multiple turnover games. Of his 13 touchdown passes, four came in a win over the pathetic Giants leaving him with 16 in the other 26 games of his career. He has 1.19 turnovers per game so you won’t get a lot of help there either. Seriously, if he improves around 60 yards similar to what Carr did in year 3 and likewise gets to 3,500 yards it would be a big accomplishment. I don’t think he will do that. I also doubt he reaches 20 touchdown passes and without strong rushing or turnover figures he is not a fantasy player worth much attention.

24

Losman (BUF)

He is getting a lot of hype for a guy with 5 passes thrown as a rookie. The big concern I have is the line after the far less mobile Bledsoe went down just about three times per game over the past three seasons. Losman can move around and make plays down the field. He also has weapons with Moulds (even if his best years are behind him and he only does well in even years) and Evans who averaged 17.6 yards per catch with 9 scores as a rookie, coming on very strong down the stretch. Josh Reed has been a disappointment so they drafted Parrish with their first pick (#55) to take his place. His college teammate Everett was supposed to take over at tight end, but an early injury derailed that which leaves Campbell as the top threat. Everyone knows McGahee is going to be in charge of a good ground game and the defense will be good. If you look at it, the recipe for success is similar to what Roethlisberger had last year in Pittsburgh. Good starting receivers, running game and defense. It also leads to a similar season of wins but probably not good fantasy stats. I think he will have bigger problems protecting the football behind that line, especially where fumbles are concerned. I see him right around that 3,000-3,100 yardage marker with touchdowns in the 18-21 range and good rushing totals. This isn’t going to win you a fantasy title unless your league starts two quarterbacks.

25

Manning (NYG)

Eli certainly took his rookie lumps in the second half of the season, but finished up strong throwing for 5 touchdowns in the final three games. It took him 37 passes to reach his high water mark in yards (201) though and 5.3 is a horrible per attempt average. Now they replace the joke known as Hilliard with a playmaker in Burress who coupled with Toomer, Shockey and Barber give them some options on offense. The big downside is that this division got a lot better and their team pretty much went sideways. It is hard to know exactly when (or if) the big seasons will come for him, but I am not looking for him to produce a fantasy worthy 2005 by any stretch of the imagination. A few times he will put up starter numbers and that’s about it.

26

Bledsoe (DAL)

Could he have a Gannon like resurgence? Well, he already did it once with his 4,359/24 showing in 2002 when he joined the Bills. Now he has at least some talent with Keyshawn being one of the best possession guys, Morgan having potential as a speed guy and Witten breaking out at tight end last year. He’s also got a great running game in the making behind Julius Jones who has A-Train and the rookie Barber to keep him fresh. Last year even with a great supporting cast in Buffalo he couldn’t get over 212 yards in 12 of his 15 starts. His 20 touchdowns weren’t bad, but he picked up 7 of those in two games. About the only positive thing to say is that he produced at least one score in 12 of 15 games, but he had multiple turnovers in six contests and finished with 25 after picking up 22 the prior season. Back to the positive, he has thrown for at least 3,500 yards seven times in his career and over 2,860 every year since he had 2,494 as a rookie in 13 starts (projected to 3,069) other than the historic injury shortened 2001 campaign. He also has 7 seasons with at least 19 touchdowns. Sure, he might fire it up one last time but you’ll have plenty of time to pick him up off the wire if he does. Here’s to giving him a little attention on opening weekend because I think his career warrants that.

27

Grossman (CHI)

He’s leading the NFC version of the Ravens in 2005 with rushing and defense being the primary focus. On the other hand, this is a guy who threw the ball a ton back at Florida and just picked up last year’s most productive receiver Muhammad and a rookie (Mark Bradley) who is raising eyebrows. Any time your team throws for 9 touchdowns all season and has no receiver returning with more than 481 yards it seems pretty futile. What I’m pointing out is that if you rank the starters this is where he falls. If things swing in the right direction he could put up the kind of numbers Delhomme did last year while the team fights from behind every week. If things don’t, he will be on the bench in favor of Hutchinson or Orton. Just say no.

28

Rattay (SF)

He has shown signs of being a big fantasy factor, but the team drafted Alex Smith to start. I’m inclined to believe Rattay beats him out and his big five game stretch in the middle of last season points me in that direction. How does 309 yards on average with 1.6 touchdowns strike you? He was never under 259 and had a score in every game although behind that horrid line he suffered 1.6 turnovers as well. Now the line is twice as good and the problem becomes receiving targets. They grabbed veteran Morton and will hope that young guys like Battle, Lloyd and Woods will be able to step up this season. It is a certainty that this squad falls behind on a regular basis so expect plenty of pass attempts and some garbage scoring. If Alex Smith wins the job I don’t value him nearly as much because quite frankly I believe Rattay could flirt with the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks given a full season at the helm.

29

Dilfer (CLE)

He might have one more Super Bowl ring than Dan Marino but he has never thrown for more than 2,859 yards or 19 touchdowns in a season. His mop up duty for the past four seasons in Seattle amounted to 13 touchdowns against 14 picks (and two lost fumbles) over 356 passes thrown which is roughly 75% of what a typical starter has in a full season. It is really hard to get excited about him even with a possibly good starting duo of Bryant and Edwards at receiver. The loss of Winslow took a lot out of his sleeper potential and the uncertainty at running back does too. I can’t find any reason you would want him on your fantasy team.

30

McNair (TEN)

He’s such a tough competitor but the end is getting pretty close for him at 32 after missing ten games over the past two seasons. In basically 7 games last year (he threw 5 passes in another contest) his projected numbers came out to roughly 3,065 yards and 18.3 touchdowns with 27.4 turnovers. As gritty as he is, the digits don’t lie and the yardage has never really been there for him with a high of only 3,387 yards. He turned in 67 touchdowns in 45 games during the 2001-2003 seasons but that was on great teams that contended for all the marbles. If things had to get worse, they lost their most reliable receiver (Mason) and drafted three guys to take their lumps in the hope that someone can catch some passes. With the guy who rushed for 31.4 yards per game during the 1997-2002 stretch long gone there isn’t really any value here. The only intriguing factor is that this team threw for 3,933 yards and 27 touchdowns last year while trying to play from behind. If he has a solid game or two early on it might be one of those “one last run” type seasons for him.  

31

Ramsey (WAS)

No matter what they did to acquire the rights for the pick used on Campbell I believe he is the most ready to win the starting job. He basically had a half season of work if you throw out an early poor showing against the Giants. Doubling those numbers you come up with 3,046 yardas with 18 touchdowns against 18 turnovers. Not exciting numbers, but not terrible either. In 7 of 9 games managed a scoring strike while suffering multiple giveaways in four of those contests. The team has returned to the days of The Smurfs with the acquisition of Santana Moss and Patten, but they could have worse people catching passes. This is one of those situations where if you are in a crazy league with a lot of teams and two starting quarterbacks he might pan out, but don’t count on it. At the first sign of trouble, or a poor record he will likely be benched for Campbell.

32

Frerotte (MIA)

We think he is leading the charge to win the starting job, but is that really anything to get excited about? Actually he has a great set of targets if they can stay healthy (Boston) and quit beating up girls (McMichael). Booker and Chambers don’t have those kinds of problems and it appears the backfield will feature Brown and Williams. That being said, his career highs in yards (3,453) and touchdowns (17) came five teams and almost a decade ago. Even exceeding those would barely put him as an FFL starter. The team wants Feeley to win the job and that doesn’t help either. If you’re asking yourself how well he will do it is probably best to check yourself into some sort of FFL rehabilitation center.

33

Garcia (DET)

He’s the first backup to look at for two reasons, the starter is already under fire and the weapons are unbelievable. His two magical seasons in San Francisco aren’t the whole story for him and neither is last year’s disaster in Cleveland. One overlooked factor for him is running the football and he averages 4.3 touchdowns per 16 starts. That’s a nice boost when you combine 326.4 rushing yards on average. With the Browns he tossed 4 of his 10 scores in a single game, never throwing more than one in any other, but suffering multiple turnovers in five of the ten games he saw significant time. Since he probably has Mooch in his corner there is a good chance for him to unseat Harrington if the start of the season does not go well. With good rushing totals, plenty of young stud receivers and a career littered with more than a touchdown per start he has to be on the radar for a wire pickup.

34

Volek (TEN)

With McNair always hurt, he’s a valuable backupwho had some really huge games last year. During his first 7 starts he posted an astounding 314.3 yards per game with 2.4 touchdowns which is why you should pay attention to guys who don’t start the season as the team’s #1 on the depth chart. He is trying to win a starting job somewhere else, and I don’t think his stock was hurt by posting only 286 total yards in his final two games with just a single touchdown pass. The concern is that the team lost a few receivers including their star Mason. The replacements are three rookies and the hope that Calico can stay healthy. I think he’s still dangerous because he is motivated to play for the money. McNair is fragile and ready to go down.

35

Feeley (MIA)

He wants to justify the draft pick surrendered to pick him up, but didn’t establish himself last year even given a pretty fair shake. Late in the year he threw the ball an astounding 40.3 times per game over the final six yet averaged only 206 yards with just two trips past 200 (229 and 303). He did throw a touchdown in every game, winding up with 9 plus a rushing score over that stretch. In a way I favor his upside a lot more than Frerotte so if he wins the job put him on your watch list. Things could really look up for him if Ricky turns out to be in shape while McMichael and Boston get their things in order. I wouldn’t count on more than one of those happening though.

36

Schaub (ATL)

He was outstanding in the exhibition season as a rookie, but fizzled out in relief of the resting Vick during two late season losses. His yards per attempt (4.7) stunk and he threw just one touchdown against 3 interceptions with an average of 160.5 yards. Still, the team has promising young receivers and their presence might light a fire under Price. They also have a great ground game and a good tight end in Crumpler. The real reason he is so high is that Vick is a scrambler and that leads to a lot of hits. He has missed a lot of games already in his young career and Schaub is a very solid player who could step in and start launching balls down the field. Heck, if I ran the Falcons I would put him out there a drive or two a game just to mix up the offense.

36

Rivers (SD)

Don’t kid yourself, if Brees gets off to a shaky start or the shine of their magical 2004 run wears off you will definitely see the Chargers find out exactly what they have with their top pick. The offense did a lot of good things last year and there is going to be an important decision for management to make between Rivers and Brees. Without seeing Rivers on the field in the regular season that could be a tough one. If he does hit the field I think right away he will prove to have a lot more upside than Brees and not just because he is younger. He will be able to throw deep and make better use of the talent which is quietly pretty good. McCardell is probably on his last legs, but Caldwell showed great promise before going down last year and of course there is Gates at tight end and that Tomlinson guy who I hear is pretty good.

37

Campbell (WAS)

I have mixed feelings on what the team was thinking with the trade that landed him in the nation’s capital, but here he is and he will battle with Ramsey for the job. Gibbs is a pretty old school guy and wants things a certain way so the fact that Ramsey knows the system and most of the personnel (Patten and Santana Moss were added) he will probably be the man when the season opens. I don’t expect the Redskins to make a serious playoff run and once they drop out of it you will likely see Campbell putting on a helmet. If he makes an impact I would be shocked.

38

Smith (SF)

Something about this guy rubs me the wrong way. I don’t know if it’s his smug attitude after posting big numbers against bad teams in a pass happy offense or the fact that he no goes into the exact opposite situation. There is no proven star receiver on this team and first he will need to beat out Tim Rattay who is a better player at this point. On the plus side he should have a much better line than the team had last year, but I expect his reaction time under center and with the speed of the pro game to really hurt him as a rookie. Eli is a way better player and if you look at his numbers last year I think you see why he’s going to be invisible on the fantasy radar this season.

39

Kitna (CIN)

I feel like he got a little bit of a short stick after posting a great 2003 season for the Bengals with 3,591 yards and 26 touchdowns. Now it would take an injury to Palmer for him to be a factor again. The five seasons he was given a shot produced at least 3,178 yards four times and an average of 3,199. The passing touchdowns were at an even 19 (plus 1.2 rushing scores), but the big issue was turnovers with a gaudy 22.8 and when he took over late for Palmer last year he showed it again with 5 in four games. He also threw for low yardage numbers (623 total with a high of 186) so in a way I have soured on him a bit. Banking on an injury is always tricky, but if you don’t know how well the key backups are you will hesitate and could lose out on a good pickup. He’s an iffy proposition with great targets.

40

Tuiasosopo (OAK)

His potential has been totally wasted and the real shame was that when Gannon went down he followed him to the IR before anyone could find out his value. In the fantasy world he is the guy who is another injury away from inheriting Randy Moss and Jerry Porter as targets. That alone is enough to keep him earmarked should something happen to Collins. What I’m not convinced of is his ability to beat out rookie Andrew Walter who is exactly the kind of player Al Davis loves, big and able to throw the ball deep down the field. Experience alone makes him the backup, but if there becomes an issue with Collins (injury or poor play) you should really look at both Tui and Walter as pickups.

41

Bouman (NO)

The Saints are running out of patience with Brooks and his poor decision making in the form of turnovers. There is too much talent on this team, especially on offense, for them to keep missing the playoffs is what they are thinking right now. Bouman is a player who has shown he could handle a nice arsenal in Minnesota during a brief stint back in 2001. This is another situation where his veteran presence will give him the edge over Adrian McPherson whose grooming came in the AFL, but keep an eye on both players if the heat starts coming down on Brooks.

42

McCown (AZ)

Warner is hardly a sure bet to finish the season and late last year McCown showed some signs of having a little ability. During a three game run (a win and two losses by a field goal) he passed for an average of 281 yards with 1.7 touchdowns (plus 2 running scores one game) against 1.3 turnovers. Over the long haul of his 14 games he failed to reach 200 yards in nine of them though and 10 of his 13 total touchdowns came in three games. He turned it over a reasonable 1.1 times per game and five of his 15 turnovers were over with by week 3. The big thing here is that they have Fitzgerald, Boldin and Johnson running routes for a full season. If Warner should do his usual face plant there is reason for optimism for Josh to be a fairly productive fantasy player much the way Volek was last year in Tennessee as the team throws their way out of deficits.