1

Tomlinson (SD)

This is not a tough choice. His rushing yards per 16 games played over the past three seasons is strong (1,587) ranking behind only Holmes, Portis and Lewis among those with 29+ games. His receiving (563) is behind only Holmes and if you take Priest out of the total yardage conversation, he is averaging 213 more total yards per season than any other player. He has 17.02 touchdowns per full season, one behind Alexander (Holmes is at 27.8). With the great one having injury issues and LJ nipping at his heels, LT is clearly the best bet as the #1 overall. He has never been under 1,200 yards rushing or 350 receiving making him a lock for 1,500 total yards at a bare minimum while his rookie season (10 scores) was the only time he didn’t have at least 15 trips downtown. Speaking of consistency, only one time did he fail to score a touchdown last season (he had 70 total yards). For his four year career he averages 2,011 total yards with 15.2 touchdowns and a paltry 2.03 fumbles lost per season. I’ll take that and you can take the sleepless nights.

2

Alexander (SEA)

First of all, forget the holdout talk, there is too much at stake to sit. Now, if guys like Holmes and Faulk hadn’t been around the past few seasons he might have been in the running for #1 overall consideration those seasons. For crying out loud he has 14+  rushing touchdowns the past four seasons, scoring 70 times total in those 64 games. Isn’t scoring what FFL is all about? His rushing total went from solid during his first three full seasons (1,309) to huge (1,696). Over the four years he averaged 1,723 total yards and 17.5 touchdowns. Yeah, I’ll take over 100 yards and a score on a weekly basis. What keeps him from #1? Easily it is consistency because in half of the games last year he failed to hit 85 yards rushing although only three times did he fail to reach 95 total yards, all early in the year and five times he had multiple scores including two of the times his rushing figure was under 85. With 2.99 fumbles lost per 350 touches he won’t hurt you there either. I can make a case for him being the top overall pick on the impetus that he is playing for a big contract, but I prefer LT as a superior back catching the ball and Alexander is more of a player who can carry your team on certain weeks rather than one who will provide even production.

3

Holmes (KC)

The numbers on him are staggering since 2001. He averages 2,265 total yards per 16 games played and mixes in a mere 22.5 touchdowns. That’s 1.41 scores and 141.5 yards per week. Now questions about his health have started to surface after he missed half of last season (he was on pace for 1,784 yards rushing with 28 touchdowns) and of course he turns 32 this October. When Larry Johnson stepped in and averaged 146.2 total yards and 2 touchdowns per game while starting over the final five contests it started to become clear that running Holmes 24.5 times (as they did last year) just doesn’t make sense. That being said, he is clearly still their touchdown threat and is going to get the ball probably 17-20 times a game while remaining a big threat to catch the ball. If you are willing to accept a little bit of injury risk the reward could wind up being the best overall player snared in the middle of the first round during your fantasy draft. I was able to secure LJ in the area of rounds 8-10 just to be safe and when you are getting a potential clear cut #1 in the third or fourth position it can really make your team.

4

James (IND)

He officially returned to prominence after injuries ruined his past three seasons, recording 1,548 yards rushing and the best average (4.6) of his six year career. Throwing out the 2002 season which followed his knee injury he averages a stout 2,153 total yards per 16 games played with 14.8 touchdowns. Using his first playoff game in place of the finale that he mostly sat out of (both against Denver) he had 2,107 total yards last year so he’s right there. In 17 games last season his worst efforts were 74 total yards in that first playoff game and 79 in an early game against Green Bay. Other than that there were only two other games under 108 total yards and the only two fumbles he had came in the opener against New England. Eight times he had 100+ on the ground alone and he for his career he averages 62.4 receptions for every 16 games played. You really can’t overlook him as an early first round FFL draft pick.

5

McAllister (NO)

Last year was a big disappointment with injuries, but when he got right you could see the real Deuce as he ran for 128 and 140 in the final two games while averaging 110 rushing yards in the final four with 3 touchdowns. He had 100+ five times in 13 full efforts last year, but his disappearance from the passing game was alarming. After catching 116 passes in his previous 31 games he had only 34 last year. Still, this is a guy averaging 1,890 total yards per 16 games played over the last three years with 11 touchdowns. Those numbers say a lot and I don’t think he gets his due in fantasy circles. This offense wakes up out of bed and scores 20 points before most people have their morning coffee. If he can stay healthy, he should easily be very close to the top running back in the game. Health should also put him back into the passing game and I’ll take his track record over other players who could be hit or miss.

6

Lewis (BAL)

The bloom fell off the rose when he missed time due to injury and suspension last year, cutting his record setting 2,066 rushing yard season in half last year (1,006) when his average rush dropped a full yard. The truth is that 2003 was the exception, not the rule. He had a high number of rushes (387) and his other three seasons all produced 4.3 or 4.4 yard averages which leads me to believe that’s what he is good for. Other than 2002 he hasn’t really been a factor out of the backfield and in total averages only 29.3 receptions and 282 yards receiving with only 1 career touchdown reception. Touchdowns rushing don’t come easily either with 14 of his career 33 coming during that magical 2003 campaign and an average of 8.8 per 16 played. Take him for what he is, which is a guy likely to be comfortably over 1,300 yards rushing and possibly even over 1,500 if he can stay healthy in his post prison state with maybe 10 touchdowns. He won’t give you much receiving and that’s what puts him on the fringe of dipping to the second round in 10 team drafts. The improvement of talent in the passing game might take pressure off of him, and if that happens his rushing average could jump up with some longer runs giving him a better shot at 1,500 or more.

7

Davis (HOU)

In 2004 he got off to a very slow start, but in the second half he rushed for 828 yards and picked up 319 in receiving yards. That would multiply out to 2,294 total yards for a season and he scored 11 times over his final 10 games. If you can ignore that kind of production, don’t think of him as a good pick early in the second round. They took Morency out of Oklahoma State in the draft, and he is actually eight months older than Davis, but that’s just a precaution if they can’t lock up DD long term. He has quietly averaged 1,742 total yards per 16 games played in his two year career with 12.1 touchdowns. I can’t think of a lot of players out there who can be counted on for that kind of production. If you don’t take a running back ahead of him, however, I’d be hesitant to rely on him as your #1 but there aren’t many better #2 players you can get.

8

Portis (WAS)

His first carry as a Redskin was a 64 yard touchdown run, but if you take that play away he finished with just 1,251 yards rushing and 4 scores. It helped him to one of just five games with 100 yards rushing although he did have a 94 yard effort and ten times had at least 87 total yards. I’m chalking a lot of this up to the transition to a new team with very poor surrounding talent and possibly being overworked early in the season. During his first six starts he had to run the ball 25.5 times per game, which put him on pace for 408. Running exactly 17 three times and 6 and 10 other times the rest of the way left him at 343 but he had 383 total touches and a lot of those lead to hits. You want a fantasy player who sees the ball a lot, but 4.05 yards per touch is not good. Now the question is what impact drafting Campbell while going with Santana Moss and David Patten at receiver will impact him. Is their passing game better or worse after these changes? I really don’t know, but the line should improve with Jansen (who missed 2004) and now Rabach (via Baltimore) at center. I’m banking on that putting him closer to the 5.5 yard rushing average of his Denver days than his 3.8 average last year. I see him as a 4.3-4.5 type guy in the 315-330 rushes range. That puts him in the 1,350-1,500 area and one can only expect he will score more than 7 times this season. Grab him late in the first round and be happy.

9

Barber (NYG)

His past five seasons have been really good and I can’t take that away from him. He has averaged a gaudy 1,831 total yards per 16 games played, but only 8.62 touchdowns over that period. Fantasy owners got a lift when he scored 15 times last year and 11 times in 2002, but that party might be over after they drafted bruising Brandon Jacobs to help their poor third and 1 conversion rate. It is likely they will also use him to punch in short touchdowns, which is why he drops in my rankings. Any back who averages 549 yards receiving per 16 games played over an eight year career deserves attention although last season’s reception total (52) was his only trip under 66 since 1998. I don’t think Jacobs will take away from his touches (364.7 per season over the last three years) but if his touchdowns are cut down his value dips into the second round after his 2,096/15 season put him at the top of the heap last year.

10

Jordan (OAK)

Usually I like a good history before I will spend a pick in the first two rounds, but he might be an exception. The Raiders had the lowest rushing total last year (83.7) but they were also dead last in attempts by a wide margin (3.1 per game to be exact). In rushing average they weren’t great (4.0) but only 18 teams were better so they were merely in the middle of the pack, not at the bottom of it. If you throw in the lead rushers Zereoue, Wheatley, Crockett, Fargas and Redmond you come up with 301 rushes for 1,229 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jordan is a good bet to meet or exceed those numbers on his own. His career totals are actually pretty similar to those with 1,277 yards on 262 carries (for a stronger 4.9 average) and 10 scores. Relieving Martin during blowouts over the Dolphins and Seahawks he had 199 yards on 29 carries with a touchdown. The three times he got the ball at least 14 times he averaged 90.7 yards and the five times he got it 11+ he averaged 75.0 and that’s about half the load he will carry in Oakland. This is a player who got it only 105 times (including the playoffs) and picked up 559 yards. Triple the carries and I think you see the potential. The Raiders won’t have trouble scoring points and while it is unclear if he will be the touchdown producer, without question he is looking for 1,300 yards rushing at a bare minimum. He won’t be a big pass catcher and coupled with the touchdown uncertainty is no better than a second round pick at this point.

11

McGahee (BUF)

Without question fantasy “experts” are giving him way too much attention at the top of the draft over more proven commodities. No question he had an electric final dozen games, averaging 88.2 yards per game (would be 1,411 for a season) while scoring 13 times over the final ten games. He also had 7 games with over 100 yards rushing. Let’s not get crazy here though. The guy averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and even though he didn’t start from the first day of the season he still finished #10 in the NFL for total carries at 284 meaning there wasn’t a lot of production left on the field. Give him 50 more carries and he rushes for 1,328 yards. He caught over 2 balls just twice last year and didn’t score on any of his 22 receptions. Should we move on to the fact that he now has a rookie quarterback in Losman? The line didn’t improve either and in today’s NFL that means it got worse. Go ahead, get excited and take him in the top 5. Then cry in your soup when he doesn’t live up to it. If he falls into the second round or if you are in that ugly 10 position on the turn is where you want to consider him.

12

Dillon (NE)

Flat out he carried my fantasy team last year because of where I was able to draft him (at #19 overall) but there are negatives and positives to his game. On the plus side he played 19 games including the playoffs and never had less than 73 yards rushing (his total against Pittsburgh in the AFC title game). Over 410 rushes he held a 4.70 average and he scored 15 times with ten trips past 100 yards rushing. However, he only caught 1.26 passes per start. If his playoff average (17.7 yards receiving) carried into the regular season he would add 283 yards to his total, making him a clear first round pick. His final three years in Cincinnati (discounting the season Rudi cut into his action) he averaged 1,582 total yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s right around what he is good for but don’t forget he turns 31 in October. The good news is that no one steals looks from him although Faulk hits the field on third down. He is a player you can target if you are one of those people who insists on not taking a running back with your first pick.

13

Johnson (CIN)

The team waited a season too long before signing him long term and paid the price after he carried a big load last year. I like the 1,454 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns but I don’t like the fact that it took him 361 carries to get there (4.0 average) or that he caught only 15 passes. Nine times he had at least 89 yards rushing and three times that he didn’t he scored a touchdown. However, I don’t want to rely on touchdowns for guys in this range, I want pure yardage and 7 times he failed to exceed 71 total yards. For him to be the real presence as a #2 FFL back in traditional ten team leagues he needs to be closer to that 4.5 yard average of 2003 because he is probably going to be getting more like 320 rushes (4.0=1,280 while 4.5=1,440). I don’t really know what role Chris Perry (their #26 overall pick last year) has on this team, but his presence notwithstanding Rudi has no threats to his playing time or touchdown action which is a great thing for fantasy owners. The pressure of needing to carry it a lot and score double digit touchdowns without the benefit of receiving yards is a tough one though and it keeps him in the middle of the second group for me.

14

Jones (DAL)

It is hard to figure out how excited to get about a player who missed half of his rookie season, but he ranked behind only Holmes, Dillon, Martin and Alexander in yards rushing per game (102.4) while he actually would have led the category if you throw out his 5 carry effort early against Cleveland because he averaged 114.7 over the final 7 games and scored 7 times. Doubling his numbers you get 1,856 total yards and 14 touchdowns. If he can do that, clearly he is worth a first round draft pick and the signs point to it for me. The Cowboys took Marion Barber to provide insurance if he can’t stay healthy and signed Anthony Thomas as a possible touchdown vulture, but I don’t see a guy like Parcells using that strategy because it limits his options and A-Train is a fumble risk. Still, those are two reasons his figures could be closer to 1,500/10 which are still solid. I don’t like question marks and the presence of the other guys does make me nervous. Nevertheless, he is probably going to be there when you pick in the second round and that’s when you get him.

15

Green (GB)

Fantasy owners are no doubt turned off big time after his rushing total dipped 720 yards last year and his touchdowns dropped from 20 to 8 from his outlandish 2003 season. Personally, I don’t think he was right physically. In the first two games he had 247 yards on 57 carries, but logged just 202 rushes the rest of the way. Throwing out the Houston and Chicago games (injury, benching in the finale) he averaged only 17.5 rushes per game after that opening burst. Is it any wonder that he only once had 100 yards? Even a 5.0 rushing average would produce just 87.7 yards with that number of carries. He also caught just 40 passes, a disturbing trend for a guy whose total has dropped each season in Green Bay after grabbing 73 when debuting with them in 2000. Still, you can’t ignore the potential of 1,883 rushing yards or the fact that he has averaged 12.2 touchdowns over the past five seasons with 1,807 total yards. One thing I don’t like is that other than 2003 (when he ran it 355 times) his career high is 304 rushes. They need to get him the ball more than that. Again, I think he is healthier now and with the window closing on Favre he puts up another big year.

16

Jones (DET)

With the big finishes from fellow rookie Julius Jones and “rookie” McGahee, it was easy to overlook how Kevin closed the season. That would be 906 rushing yards in the second half with 4 touchdowns and 119 yards receiving just for good measure. I don’t see him realizing the 2,050 full season potential but with his solid 4.7 average he is a good bet to be pushing for 1,400 to 1,500 rushing yards. There isn’t much talent behind him so it is clear he will get the important looks and could improve as a threat out of the backfield. The three times he got the ball over 20 times last season he produced 196, 156 and 123 yards rushing but let’s temper that with the fact that it came against the Cards, Packers and Bears. Still, that’s nice upside and we’ll see how he holds up over the full 300-320 carries of a lead rusher. You have to like the talent around him with the three young receivers and now Pollard at tight end. The addition of Garcia guarantees that he’ll have a good quarterback as well because if Harrington struggles he will get pulled. All told, he is a sneaky steal late in the second or preferably early in the third round of your draft. If you can start three running backs I can just about guarantee you’ll win the league with him as your #3.

17

Bell (DEN)

In 11 games (including the blowout loss in the playoffs) he wound up with 557 total yards and 4 touchdowns on just 96 touches. Most feature backs get well over 300 touches and you can easily see how that could translate into the 1,600-1,700 range for him with double digits in touchdowns. Again, I think his season average (5.3) will not be repeated and the Denver backfield is a tricky thing to figure out. They drafted Clarett (after taking three cornerbacks mind you) and signed Ron Dayne. Will Clarett get a few looks this year to help his development? Is Dayne going to get a shot to score the touchdowns? I doubt either will happen, making him the guy I would most like to take a chance on early in the third round or into the fourth depending on who I’ve already taken. He could be an absolute steal that will bail you out as your #2 RB after you used one of your first two picks on a quarterback (Manning or Culpepper) or wide receiver (Randy or T.O.). If you grab him you will definitely want to quickly snare a third back just in case though.

18

Westbrook (PHI)

He’s a total yards monster. He only rushed for 812 yards last year, but was only 4 receptions short of team leader Owens and wound up with 703 yards and six of his nine total scores as a receiver. It does concern me when my “feature” back loses 94 carries to relic Dorsey Levens though. Now the team has Buckhalter presumably healthy and rookie Moats as well. His value last year was based on the previous season when he had just 945 total yards but a nose for the end zone with 11 scores, seven as a runner. When you use the three playoff games in place of the three games he missed (two were when the team rested its starters) you get an eye popping 1,871 total yards and 11 touchdowns. Some talk about quarterbacks who double as rushers, he’s a guy who wound up with what would have been pretty good WR3 totals (again using the subbed in numbers) with 849/8 plus the rushing figures of 1,022/3. He’s also going to be playing his ass off for a contract on a very, very good team. One concern I have is him leaving you high and dry in your championship game. This team will go 14-2 and again not need to win in week 16 so can you afford losing an RB during your title chase? Another is their desire to mix in Buckhalter and Moats. Last year Mahe and Levens took 105 rushes and 23 receptions, figures that I expect the new guys to increase on, leaving Westbrook a little less than his 1,500-ish total yards total for the first 13-14 games he will play. Honestly, he might not even be with you in the semifinals. 

19

Martin (NYJ)

Forgive me if I anticipate a leveling out of his production after an outstanding 2004 campaign (1,942 total yards, 14 scores) that followed two workmanlike seasons averaging 1,513 total yards and 4.5 touchdowns. Yes, three times earlier in his career he had at least 367 carries, but last year’s 371 will not be repeated. Edwards doesn’t want to work him like that, which is why they snatched up Blaylock so quickly after losing Jordan. Truth be told, they might regret not locking up Jordan at the expense of Martin in the long run. However, in 18 games last year including the playoffs he failed to reach 99 total yards only three times (70, 67 and 88) and eleven times had at least 110, never losing a fumble in an astounding 457 touches. For his 10 year career he has lost only 15 in 3,758 touches with this being his third season without losing one. Heck, he has only fumbled 27 times period which is once every 139.2 times he gets the ball. With him you will get a solid rushing season, a littering of receiving because not since his rookie year has he failed to catch 41 passes and last year’s 245 receiving yards was a career low. What will Blaylock’s role be? At 32 does he have a full season’s pounding in him after averaging 383 touches over the last seven years? I’m not so sure and although I balked when he was taken in the first round of my private league this year and wound up being wrong, I don’t think I’m wrong to put him in the second to third round category this year. 

20

Williams (TB)

As the Jones duo and McGahee (in his first year) showed us rookies can have a serious FFL impact running the ball. I really believe he is in the best position to succeed, even on a team that finished #29 in rushing in 2004. Pittman muscled his way to 926 yards and four games with 100+ despite missing the opening three games. He also scored 7 times although five of those were against the 49ers and Chiefs. Cadillac has much more talent and Gruden has probably been chomping at the bit for a rusher like him to be added. I really expect him to be a day one starter who never looks back and logs 300+ carries while being a big factor out of the backfield. They don’t have a great offense, but it certainly is improved with the addition of three rookie receivers who will provide depth behind Clayton and Galloway. You will be taking a chance to suit him up as your #2 but if you have loaded up at QB and WR early it’s a move that might pay off with a league title.

21

Jackson (STL)

I want everyone to remember how excited they were about Kevan Barlow when Hearst moved on. Now realize that Faulk has simply moved into a reduced role. No question Jackson has shown flashes of being big time with a couple games of 119 and 148 yards rushing when given the full load, but that was against the 49ers and Philly’s second string so keep that in mind. His 5.0 average is nice, but how many times have you seen players with inflated averages that go way down when they get a full load? Yes, I think he has big potential and will be happy that the turf is being replaced. I realize that Martz will not commit to the run though and with Faulk still on board getting probably 125 carries it is hard for me to envision Jackson getting more than 225 looks. He is not a great receiver or pass blocker so when you add everything up I really expect around 1,100 to 1,250 total yards with probably 7-10 touchdowns. Not bad production for a guy you won’t wind up with if you are smart because someone will overpay for him in the second round. He is more of a third to early fourth round selection.

22

Foster (CAR)

He definitely falls into the sleeper category, but missing 30 of 48 games in his brief career doesn’t really give you warm, fuzzy feelings. Forget about that for a moment and consider that the five feature backs who ran for the Panthers last year (Goings, Hoover, Davis and Harris were the others) combined for 1,467 yards and 8 touchdowns on 383 carries. It is Foster’s mission to get his hands on most of those rushes, but it shouldn’t be hard for him to beat out Goings (3.8 average last year) and the hobbled Davis. This is where risk/reward starts to play into your mind and is a clear example of why you should be taking two running backs by the third round. If a guy like him is your #2 player your team is in a lot of trouble potentially. On the other hand, he is going to be available pretty deep into your draft and is worth the investment as your third or even fourth rusher if you have an active league with trade happy owners.

23

Barlow (SF)

This is where buying low comes in. You can bash him for his atrocious 2004 season, and he put up quite possibly the middle of a season I can remember for a feature back so before I tell you why to draft him let’s get that out there. His opening two and closing two games produced 44.4% of his total rushing yards as he averaged 91.3 and scored three times in those games. In between he was horrific with just 457 yards in 11 games (on 165 carries for a 2.77 average) and scored four touchdowns. Just twice was he over 79 yards on the ground and he finished with 1,034 total yards on the season. Now throw all that out. The team completely revamped their line and unless they jump too quickly to Alex Smith (who will flame out) I think there is reason for a little optimism where he is concerned. Let’s not throw out the 2002-2003 stretch where he carried the ball 346 times for 1,699 yards and 10 touchdowns just yet. When no one is looking you will want to give him a chance and don’t be too concerned about Gore who will simply be a lesser version of Hearst which means it is a positive factor.

24

Arrington (AZ)

The team knew what they were doing when they stole him at #44. All he did was have the best collegiate season of any rusher and somehow got overshadowed by the so called “Big 3” thanks to the bias against the west coast. Now he joins a team where old man Emmitt Smith performed a swan song with 9 touchdowns and combined with Troy Hambrick they had 1,220 yards on 330 carries. I really think that is worst case scenario for J.J. this season. He will easily beat out trouble maker Shipp because he is more athletic and is obviously the future of the team. If Shipp does steal some carries (or touchdowns) it will be a bummer, but that situation is more likely to exist early in the season. By the time your playoffs roll around it should be all Arrington all the time.

25

Bennett (MIN)

The stars have lined up for him to return out of nowhere thanks to The Whizzinator incident and the team being for some reason unwilling to turn the main duties over to Moore (5.8 rushing average last year). After being in the top 5 for rushing the previous two seasons (#1 in 2002) they dipped to #18 last year and got only 7 touchdowns and 1,360 yards rushing out of their backfield. Including the playoff games, Bennett managed just 344 yards on 87 carries for a pedestrian 3.95 average, but caught 25 balls for 218 yards and wound up with two scores overall. The big question is distribution of carries and now that Smith has smoked his way off the team it boils down to a four man race. Moe Williams has only once been given over 84 carries in a season and mostly has been used as a touchdown vulture. Moore was last year’s fourth round draft pick and ran for 339 yards on 55 carries during a three game stretch, but disappeared after that. Fason was this year’s fourth rounder and could be the real wild card here as a clone of Bennett. If you can figure out who will get it from week to week more power to you. I’m simply saying that Bennett has the inside track as the most explosive, talented player.

26

Henry (TEN)

I’m not sure that landing in Tennessee is anywhere close to the best fantasy destination for him, but that’s life. Before McGahee stole his job he had a pretty mediocre first three games in Buffalo last year averaging only 80 yards on a healthy 68 carries (3.53 per rush) and in 94 carries on the season he failed to score. The previous two seasons is what has everyone excited because they produced an average of 1,397 yards rushing with another 234 receiving and 12.5 total scores. He was also a work horse with 656 carries. The issue was fumbling. Over his first three seasons he carried the ball 869 times and caught 93 passes, losing the rock 23 times (2.4% of the time he touched it) and 13 of those were recovered by the other team. In 104 touches last year he held onto it though. Now he returns as a hometown hero (University of Tennessee grad) but has to compete with another talented, fairly young back. As they say it’s game on. The winner of the job gets a boost and if you’re lucky enough to draft that player more power to you. On the down side he will receive plenty of attention from opposing defenses and even in best case scenario (Brown getting hurt) he probably isn’t going for more than about 1,200 total yards and 8 touchdowns.

27

Staley (PIT)

If the Bus ever goes down, he jumps about 10 spots although last year it was the exact opposite as he couldn’t stay healthy. During the first 7 games of the season he was on fire, averaging 101 yards rushing but with Bettis around he only scored once. Another major bummer was being invisible out of the backfield, catching just 6 passes in 12 games (including the playoffs). When you mix in those two post-season games he had 910 rushing yards on 213 carries and only scored that one time with 55 yards receiving. For fantasy owners in most leagues (i.e. two starting RB) that is not enough. When deciding to draft him you are hoping that the coaching staff reminds Big Ben that he caught 53.3 passes per 16 games played from 1998-2003 good for 483 yards for each projected season. If you wind up with him you are hoping that he can have another of his 2002 type seasons with 1,000 rushing and 500 receiving and a few touchdowns littered in. The fact of the matter is that scoring is the big problem because he has just 33 touchdowns in 92 career games (throwing out his rookie season). Still, if you can get 1,300-1,500 total yards with 4-6 scores out of a player who is on the wire when drafts are completed I think you’d be pretty happy.

28

Brown (TEN)

How much Pepto Bismol do you have? He hit the field 11 times last year and seven times had at least 91 yards rushing and was over 68 total yards in all but one game (he had 57) so when he goes you can expect him to at give you something. His touchdowns were mediocre (projected to 8.73 for a full season) but he did a little damage out of the backfield (213.2 projection) and if he had stayed healthy he could have reached 1,800 total yards. That is tough to ignore, but there are other bad things to consider. For one, the passing game is terrible so teams will focus on him from the start. The team is heading for a season with only a few wins and will be abandoning the run most of the time and really your only solace is that they are confident enough in him to have waited until round six before drafting another rusher. They also dumped Antowain Smith. Brown and Smith had 1,576 rushing yards last year so that’s the potential you are looking to realize when you draft him.

29

Dunn (ATL)

He is wildly inconsistent and Duckett looms to score the touchdowns and steal carries. On the other hand, mixing in the playoffs he averaged 89.3 total yards and scored 0.67 times per start. You could have done a lot worse than his 1,400 total yards and 9 scores last year, but the distribution of the workload is a concern. Last year was a career high for him in carries (265 in the regular season) and you have to like a guy averaging 458 receiving yards per 16 starts for his eight seasons. He is 30 though and not a big fellow so the injury risk is there at this point. It might have been his last big season or he might have another one in him. It is probably worth the risk to grab him as your third back and a very good option for your bye weeks though. Should something happen to Duckett he could really reel in some huge numbers. On the other hand, should he get hurt you will want to latch onto T.J. immediately.

30

Brown (MIA)

The Dolphins couldn’t stand drafting another former Texas grad (Benson) or another Williams (Cadillac) so the guy they wound up with is the one in familiar territory. That’s because he will be sharing the backfield with a high profile guy named Williams. Without the wacky tabacky smoker as competition I think you would clearly see Ronnie in the top 20 of fantasy rankings and probably a rookie of the year candidate. Now everyone has to wonder what the distribution of work will be and how quickly each guy can please new coach Saban. It is easy to see that last year no one was successful running the ball in Miami. Their main four rushers (Morris, Minor, Leonard Henry and Gordon) combined for just 1,116 yards and 9 touchdowns on 322 carries (3.47 average). Ronnie and Ricky are superior players to any of those chumps, but how much better? It’s a roll the dice situation.

31

Faulk (STL)

His value is limited now that he is relegated to third down back and occasional receiver, but he can still put up numbers. Even his “down” year saw him wind up with 859 yards rushing, 353 receiving and 4 touchdowns when you plug the playoff showings in for the two games he missed. He won’t get the 271 touches again, but his receptions might actually go up and he still has a nose for scoring. If he winds up with 125 carries and 75 receptions I think it is very realistic to expect him to be around 1,000 total yards with a few touchdowns. That’s not too bad when you get right down to it so definitely put him on your draft board and give him strong consideration if you can start a third running back. 

32

Benson (CHI)

Of the four high profile rookies he falls into the uncertain category because of Thomas Jones. The Bears were #25 in rushing yards last year, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy value to be had. Between Jones and A-Train (now in Dallas) they combined for 1,911 total yards and 9 touchdowns. The team obviously invested a lot to draft Benson and if you saw his tearful trip to the stage you realize that he will be giving them 100%. Chicago picked up Muhammad in free agency and Mark Bradley in the draft to play receiver and that could open up some running lanes. The best part is that as the future of the franchise he is much more likely to score. I am expecting Jones to be a change of pace player who helps in pass protection and plays on third downs. If Benson gets 200-250 carries that is a reasonable expectation. That could lead to at least 900 yards rushing and probably a half dozen touchdowns. If things really go his way he might wind up in the 1,200/9 range.

33

Suggs (CLE)

Just because they dealt for Droughns and have Green doesn’t mean he isn’t their best option. When he came back from missing a few games he closed out 2004 with 105, 143 and 131 yard rushing games and that is tough to ignore. It proved he can handle a full load because he averaged 28.3 carries in those games. Whether or not he can do that over a full season remains to be seen, but this is where we get into risk/reward. He is clearly going to be on the wire in most leagues and if you’re looking for a time to draft him it would be about the 17th round if you go that long. I believe he is a better back than Droughns who will quickly prove to be yet another product of that Denver regime who busts when he goes somewhere else. Portis is the exception, but do you remember Olandis Gary? Seriously people, put him on your radar as a key sleeper. 

34

Johnson (KC)

Now that Blaylock is gone he is not only the backup to all-everything Holmes, but also the future of the franchise. When given his shot at the tail end of last season he just tore it up, averaging 77.3 yards rushing and 34.3 receiving with 9 touchdowns in just seven games. That is serious production, and not a big drop off from what Holmes does. Anyone who winds up with Holmes should be taking him in the vicinity of round 8. Even if you don’t have Holmes you might want to consider the fact that this team got 2,012 rushing yards and 711 receiving with 34 total scores out of their top three backs last year. Let’s just say that Holmes gets two-thirds of that, you still have 908 total yards and 11 touchdowns left over for LJ to gobble up. Sure, they might not be as productive as their overachieving 2004 output but I think you catch my drift. I really expect Johnson to approach 40% of the yardage on this team and for Holmes to have a tough time finishing out the season. His heart really doesn’t appear to be in football anymore and the young guy is motivated. 

35

Taylor (JAX)

The Henry scare is over, but it could just be a matter of the Bills realizing that Tennessee’s third rounder had 10-15 spots more value than Jacksonville’s and the Jags weren’t willing to throw anything else in. After starting 46 games in a row, putting up 1,430 yards rushing and 391 receiving with 6.3 touchdowns per 16 games he reverted to his old self getting hurt. The “fragile Fred” that missed 24 games over his first four seasons apparently has returned to haunt fantasy owners who had hoped his late six game stretch with 119.0 yards rushing was a sign that he was ready for early second round consideration again. He’s 29 though and the healing will not get any easier. The team is in a tough spot with the three incumbents having totaled just 400 yards on 133 carries (3.01 average) and 4 touchdowns. Taylor averaged 4.7 per carry and throwing out the 1998 season (he played just two games) has been at 4.6+ every year. If he plays, he will explode so you just have to ask yourself where you are willing to take a gamble on him. The alternatives are not strong for the Jags, even rookie Alvin Pearman.

36

Bettis (PIT)

It is tough to ignore 29 touchdowns over the last 44 games he has played. Mix in the 948 total yards per 16 games played over that span and you have a fantasy factor. At 32 (he turned 33 just after the season ended) he finished with 1,106 yards rushing on 294 carries (3.76 average) and 15 scores when you mix in the two playoff games. The question becomes whether or not Cowher uses him more in the middle of the field if Staley stays healthy or if he can stay healthy himself. If you can start a third RB or have a large enough roster size to take chances I think he is worth the risk. Pittsburgh will be in position to score plenty of times and I could see him landing another 9 touchdowns with maybe 600 yards rushing mixed in.

37

Duckett (ATL)

Few players have shown such a propensity for scoring touchdowns as Duckett who has picked up 9.0 per 16 starts for his three year career. Last year he scored 9 (including the playoffs) although 4 came in a blowout over Oakland. Throwing in those playoff games he ran 126 times for 589 yards (4.67 average) and he is just biding his time before Dunn gets hurt or starts showing that he has crossed that 30 barrier.  The reality of the situation is that depending on your scoring system a season with 600 or so yards and 8-10 touchdowns might not be a terrible thing. There is also the upside of Dunn going down or him simply seeing more looks. He could land anywhere from 125-225 rushes and if he is closer to the high side of that he makes a sneaky start at #3 RB if your league has that option.

38

Williams (MIA)

It’s hard not to be just a little intrigued about a player with a career average of 1,452 yards rushing per 16 games played and 9.4 touchdowns, throwing in another 413 in receiving yards and a score. Last I checked 1,800/10 was good production even for an RB1 in even the smallest fantasy league. Now he must prove the ability is still there and hold off a top draft pick that is ready to roll. No one has any idea if he is capable of making a triumphant return, but some owners will still invest a draft pick to find out. At the very least people are shying away from Ronnie Brown until they figure out what Ricky has in the tank. It is just one of many two back battles in the NFL where you can make a nice splash taking the correct guy. I’m not excited about Miami’s running game either way though so you shouldn’t be fretting over this one. If you draft a lot of players take your shot though.

39

Droughns (CLE)

Since the incumbents Suggs and Green combined for a poor average rush (3.67) and fumbled 9 times with 5 being lost you can see why they traded for Reuben. Last year in Denver he had a deceivingly good season. In the final 12 games when he saw real action saw him rush for 1,210 yards and you don’t have to be a mathematician to see that he averaged over 100 yards a game. He also scored 8 times and punching the numbers into a full season you would wind up with 1,896 total yards and 10.7 touchdowns. Looking closer he ripped the badly struggling (at the time) Panthers for 211 yards, picked up another 277 in two games against the defensively challenged Raiders and 191 on the Saints who aren’t exactly run stuffers. Going from a team that dominates the run to one that can barely get a ground attack going will crush his chances. Then he has to beat out two other young runners with something to prove. I don’t know what to make of him at this point, but at least keep an eye on the Browns situation.

40

Buckhalter (PHI)

I suppose he is the running back equivalent of Moulds, but to the extreme. Every other season he plays and winds up with an average of 696 total yards and 5.5 touchdowns. This year the big question is how much more action he will get than Levens had last year (532/4) and if he will beat out Moats in the work load department. As I mentioned when covering Westbrook, the team probably is in position to rest their starters in the FFL playoff weeks (15 & 16) so this works in reverse where he is concerned. If you start three guys and think you’ll be in need of a lift for that RB3 spot he is someone you want on your roster because he likely will see the bulk of the action with Moats mixed in during those weeks. There’s a chance it will be Moats, but that remains to be seen because Reid has a championship team meaning he might not be anxious to get a rookie involved at a critical position.

41

Jones (CHI)

I’m not saying Cedric Benson isn’t a great back, but Jones probably deserved a better fate than this after his 2004 season. Five times he rushed for at least 97 yards and finished with 1,375 total yards and 7 touchdowns. He was limited to 240 rushes and the now departed Anthony Thomas had 122 carries for 404 yards. Add that up and you’ve got 362 rushes for 1,352 yards with 9 touchdowns. If either Jones or Benson wins the job straight up you could be looking at a serious #2 RB contender, but that’s not likely to happen. With 35.5 receptions for 250 yards per 16 starts over his career you can expect a little something from him, but Benson seems more likely to get the touchdowns. It’s a situation worth watching, but while other owners are certain to draft Benson you can probably pick up Jones off the wire which obviously makes him a better value potentially.  

42

Fason/Moore (MIN)

I’m going to cheat here because one of these guys could emerge should Bennett falter. For some reason Moore wasn’t given a chance to see if he could succeed against better competition after ripping New Orleans and Tennessee for a combined 355 yards on 47 touches. Now that Smith is out of the mix, Fason has a shot to be their next new thing in his rookie season. Keep both of them on your radar because Bennett is unreliable and Moe Williams is too old to be their feature back.

43

Toefield (JAX)

There are some rumblings that he might be the one to reap the benefits of Taylor not being able to hit the field this season. I’m not really seeing it. The best thing you can say about him is that in the two games where he had the most carries he combined for 19 carries for 84 yards and has 4 touchdowns in 146 touches over his two seasons. He’s a big back and I just don’t see him as a guy who will run the ball 20+ times a game regardless of what Taylor’s status is. No one last year succeeded while spelling Taylor, or in the final two games when he didn’t play. On a rainy day against a spent Oakland defense he managed just 7 carries for 18 yards as the backfield combined for 52 on 24 carries (2.17 average). The previous week against Houston (a 21-0 loss) he was given the ball just 3 times for 13 yards as the runners totaled 16 carries for 76 yards (4.75 average). In the final analysis I’m just not excited about him even as a late round flier.

44

Haynes (PIT)

The Steelers got 2,229 from their top four rushers last year so it would be stupid just to focus on Bettis and Staley as fantasy prospects, especially since neither is young or a safe bet to stay healthy. Haynes had 414 total yards, not enough to be a fantasy impact player last year but his 5.05 rushing average (including the playoffs) has probably given the team something to think about. When he ran the ball 8 times for 61 yards (high of 14 so it wasn’t one long run) against Baltimore late I’m sure they were impressed or they wouldn’t have given him 5 carries (28 yards) in the AFC title game. I am positive Bettis won’t get another 250 carries and even a healthy Staley will stick around the 200 mark (he had 192 last year) so you can expect Haynes to drop in around the 100-150 carry mark. With a nice average you can get a big lift from him in 12 team leagues starting three backs or unusual 4 RB starter leagues.

45

Pittman (TB)

You might be surprised to know that punching his 13 game totals from last year into a full season would give you 1,621 total yards and 12.3 touchdowns. That’s early second round production, but unfortunately the team just picked up a Cadillac in the draft to fleece most of that away. He also turns 30 just before the start of the season, marking the decline of most rushers. With his role undefined at this point he rests in the area of wait and see, but you would be foolish not to have your trigger hand on the “add player” icon or to straight out draft him if you have a large player pool (ie lots of teams and/or big rosters). He has at least 700 yards rushing five years running and an average of 1,302 total yards per 16 starts over that stretch with 5 touchdowns.

46

Moats (PHI)

If the Eagles are serious about playing hardball with Westbrook they might be giving the rookie a chance to play. Since Levens is gone and Buckhalter has already missed two full seasons there is also reason to believe he might be their only hope to relieve Westbrook. Again, he’s someone to keep a keen on eye late in the year when Philly gets ready to sit their starters in FFL playoff time because when your starters falter and the Eagles are playing in St. Louis and Arizona he might give you an unexpected bonus.

47

Blaylock (NYJ)

When you consider that in a backup role to Martin last year Jordan wound up with 591 total yards and 2 touchdowns there is reason to pay attention to the guy who took his job. Martin is not going to carry the rock another 371 times and at his age he is certainly a risk to get hurt. He wound up with 785 total yards and 9 touchdowns in that juggernaut Kansas City backfield last year, logging 4 scores in a rout of Atlanta and 224 total yards in a loss at New Orleans. Other than those two games he wasn’t all that impressive and could be another “product of the system” who struggles elsewhere. For his career he does have a strong 4.6 average per rush and has caught 45 passes for 474 yards as a backup in 40 games. What I could see happening in New York is him getting in the neighborhood of 150 carries this season and perhaps some action out of the backfield. Heck, he could wind up with 700 total yards and a handful of touchdowns. If you are in a funky league with 12 teams and three starting RBs he is someone to take a serious look at for just that reason.

47

Griffin (DEN)

The feisty little guy had 295 total yards and 3 touchdowns in four games before essentially going out for the season (he had one ineffective game after that) and now says he is ready to fight for a job lodged between heir apparent Bell and incoming Dayne and Clarett. I’ll say this, he has a role as a third down back and probably a chance to catch around 40-50 passes while running maybe 70 times. Those 120 some odd looks could land him in the 600/5 range but even with an injury to Bell don’t expect a lot more. That’s because both Dayne and Clarett will probably be given the first crack to be the lead rusher. His time in the impact fantasy spotlight was short and is probably over.

48

Gore (SF)

Some think he is coming in to steal Barlow’s job but I look at him as the player to move back into that Hearst role and give the team a 1-2 punch. As such, I expect him to be in that 100-150 carry range with a lot of action in the passing game. Behind a vastly improved offensive line it is not unrealistic to expect him to be in the area of 700 total yards with a handful of touchdowns. For a player nowhere near anyone’s fantasy radar that is not too shabby. If you are savvy, take a look at him in your league with 12-14 teams or roster of 18+ players. 

49

Taylor (BAL)

He had clearly one of the best seasons for a backup rusher whose starter didn’t miss all that much time last year, winding up with 898 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. In the four games when Lewis didn’t play he wound up with a healthy average of 122.8 total yards. You can expect his production to drop now that our jail bird has his problems behind him and without getting the full load in a handful of games he probably is closer to a 600 yard player with a few touchdowns. The team is also likely to start using their new receivers to open up the passing game if it works out for them early in the season. His production in Jamal’s absence does warrant an immediate pickup if Lewis goes down though and in leagues where you can afford to you will want to grab him as a valuable insurance policy.

50

Betts (WAS)

He picked up a decent 479 total yards in a backup role last year and ran for 118 yards as the feature player during the season ending win over playoff bound Minnesota, scoring his only touchdown of the season. The team overused Portis in his first year with the club and isn’t likely to make that mistake again with a player like Betts on hand. You can expect him to be closer to the 125-150 carry range in 2005 meaning at least 500 yards rushing although I don’t see him scoring much. If Portis goes down, don’t hesitate to snatch him off the wire because he will produce very well in the lead role.

51

Goings (CAR)

You would think a player who averaged 98.7 yards rushing with 30.7 yards receiving while scoring 6 rushing touchdowns during a late season 5-2 surge would be given major consideration to start, but that really isn’t the case with him. For starters, the team has DeShaun Foster who is viewed as more talented and they also drafted Shelton. It’s a tough break for a guy who wound up with 1,215 total yards and 7 touchdowns on just 262 touches, leading the team by far in rushing while finishing third in receptions. I don’t believe for a minute that they would have invested the #54 overall pick in Shelton if they had any intentions of giving Goings a chance this season though. His best prospects are to take his 100-125 rushes and hope that Foster goes down so he can fight with Shelton for the starting job. He probably warrants a watchful eye though because of that big season ending push.

52

Pearman (JAX)

Regardless of what happens with Taylor I don’t expect him to be a feature back, but he could surprise you and turn out to be a poor man’s Westbrook or Barber because of how well he catches the football. Last year Taylor and Toefield combined for 64 receptions and this season I believe this rookie has a chance to see a lot of passes dumped off to him in third down and long situations. If he adds anything rushing the ball it is just a bonus. You will only want to look at him for large leagues or ones with more than two running back starters, but don’t ignore him.

53

Davenport (GB)

He surprised a lot of people by dropping 178 yards rushing on St. Louis and has a career average of 5.1 yards rushing with 963 yards on just 187 carries in three seasons. The biggest issue with him is the team using Tony Fisher 65 times last year even with a horrible 3.4 yard average rush. If he can land those carries he could wind up close to the 700 yard range out of nowhere even if Green stays completely healthy. That’s something to think about if your league starts 35 or more running backs. He is also a great play should Ahman break down.

54

Jacobs (NYG)

The team wants a hammer for short yardage and we all know what that means. The touchdown vulture watch is officially on for him. Last year Dayne stole just 52 carries and Cloud 21 from Barber. If Jacobs shows he can handle the third and 1 situations he might be given the role when it matters most, inside the five yard line. If he does that well enough he could press for more looks meaning 75-100 carries. You could be looking at a 400-450 yard rushing season with 8 touchdowns out of him before you know it.