1

Gonzalez (KC)

Touchdowns come and go. It is hard to ignore 102 receptions for 1,258 yards. Both were career highs for Gonzo last year and in his past six seasons he has at least 6 touchdowns (average of 8.33) while not missing a single game (one missed in 8 career seasons) and zero fumbles period in his last five seasons (2 lost in his career). I’ll take a tight end that is an absolute lock for 850/7 at a bare minimum, especially since he is on a team with zero threats at receiver. Only 3 times last year did he fail to either gain 42 yards or score and in 12 games he had at least 4 receptions. Leave him at #1 overall for now, but be aware that there is typically an owner who takes him too early. The presence of Gates might offset this though so be ready to snatch him up if it does.

2

Gates (SD)

It is tough to ignore the kind of season he put up with 87 receptions for 1,053 yards and 14 touchdowns when you add in the playoff loss (giving him 16 games since he didn’t play the finale). He had at least 61 yards or a touchdown in 12 of 16 games, but what alarms me is that in weeks 13-15 he caught just 5 balls total although one of them went for a 72 yard touchdown. That would be the time when defenses were becoming more aware of him. Now teams will have tape built up and certainly won’t ignore him. Stretches like the one where he totaled 312 yards and 8 touchdowns (the four game set preceded the aforementioned lull) are not going to be repeated. Be glad that he is a solid force who will be in the neighborhood of 800-900 yards with a great chance to get close to double digits in touchdowns again. He might be the #1 overall tight end this year, but I’m the kind of guy who wants to see a track record before I grab a player like him in the first three rounds where I expect him to go in most leagues. Also consider that with defenses keying on him Brees now also has a full season out of Caldwell, McCardell and even the rookie Jackson who could line up opposite Gates.

3

Witten (DAL)

He jumped onto the scene with a great sophomore campaign (87 receptions, 980 yards 6 TD). In 10 games he had at least 59 yards or a touchdown and 12 times he caught at least 4 passes, including 11 of his final 13. His rookie year wasn’t too bad by fantasy standards (347 yards, 1 TD) and although I don’t see him repeating his 2004 success the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. The addition of Morgan gives the team a deep threat and they already have one of the best possession receivers in Keyshawn. That will open things up for him. Bledsoe will know a reliable target when he sees one and it is certainly reasonable to expect 70+ receptions. When other owners jump too soon for the two G-Men, be patient and take him instead.

4

Crumpler (ATL)

In four seasons he has gotten better in the major categories pretty much each season and set a career high in receptions (48) yards (774) touchdowns (6) and average per catch (16.1) despite missing two games when he wasn’t needed. Using the two playoff games to “complete” his season you get 845/7 making him clearly in the conversation at the top of this board, or at least to be #3. In 10 of 16 games he either scored or had at least 49 yards although in only half of his games did he grab 4+ passes. That’s what concerns me, the low reception total (54). I know he can play big when he wants to, with games like 82, 85, 86, 118 and 103 last year. The fact remains that those 5 games represent 61% of his regular season total. I don’t like the inconsistency, and now the team seems to be assembling a better set of receivers for Vick to find down the field. Crumpler will still be his safety valve and is probably the guy he is most comfortable hitting, but with a pedestrian 4.4 touchdowns per 16 starts and 39.5 receptions on average I don’t think he is the kind of guy you can rely on with a bunch of confidence.

5

Shockey (NYG)

When he came into the league fantasy owners expected him to take over after his 894/2 rookie campaign. Injuries have haunted him a bit (9 missed games in 3 years) but last year he caught 6 touchdowns on team that got a total of 6 from the rest of their team combined. His yardage per 16 starts sits at 859 yards and 4.1 TD and I would take that if I knew I could get it. The fact is that you don’t know what you are getting with him which means he typically drops in drafts. It’s the old risk/reward situation. Still, 9 of 15 times last year he had at least 60 yards or scored a touchdown. In the 6 when he didn’t his average was a respectable 32.5 yards. I’m saying buy low and back it up with a second tight end just in case. If he blows up on you, there is usually an out of nowhere guy who puts up decent numbers that you can grab off the wire.

6

Heap (BAL)

His sophomore season (68 receptions, 836 yards 6 TD) made him a fantasy star, but his next season was more ordinary (693/3) and last year he played only 6 games due to injury. It was during that small stretch that he showed what a factor he can be though, averaging 73.3 yards and a touchdown during half of those games and 50.5/0.5 overall, never failing to catch at least 3 balls. For the past 3 years his 16 game average is 771/5 and everyone is waiting for him to produce that season after season. Each year a fantasy owner takes him in a spot where you would typically grab a player who puts up those numbers consistently, but if he falls you should be there to catch him. Like other less reliable tight ends (think Shockey) you will need to be smart about getting insurance if the addition of Clayton and Mason doesn’t help him stay on the field and do what he is capable of.

7

Clark (IND)

When Pollard left for Detroit, savvy fantasy owners knew the door was opening for Dallas to make his move. In 2004 he had just 423 yards and 5 touchdowns, merely average for a fantasy tight end but that’s not the whole story. Let’s throw out the finale in Denver when the team laid down and mix in only the games he was worked into the offense (ignoring the other three games he caught a single short pass). That leaves 10 games where he wound up with 534 yards and scored 6 times, numbers that work out to 854/9.6 for a full season. On a team where everyone knows who to look for at receiver (Harrison, Wayne and Stokley) it is easy to get lost over the middle of a defense. I think he is a candidate to really break out and absorb a lot of the production Pollard left (29 receptions, 309 yards 6 TD). Their combined tally was 54 catches for 732 yards and 11 TD by the way. Somewhere in the 650/8 range is certainly highly probable. If owners in your league are dumb enough, and you make good enough decisions elsewhere you could wind up with him to back up your risky first choice at the position or simply take him late after loading up every other position. You aren’t likely to be disappointed.

8

Johnson (SF)

During a season where everything went wrong he was one of few bright spots after missing 2003. In half of his games he had at least 54 yards or scored, finishing with a healthy 825 yards and 2 touchdowns thanks in large part to a big two game set with 275 yards. Without those two games his average is just 39.3 yards per game (629 over a season). Given his low touchdown production (5 in 44 career games) you really can’t put him in the conversation as a top notch fantasy tight end just yet. Over his brief career you’re looking at a fantasy worthy 548 yards per 16 starts, but that is late round production. There will usually be an overzealous owner who looks at the 825 number and takes him too early. Don’t be that guy. This offense should be improved, but not that much and it is highly likely Alex Smith will flounder as a rookie. I expect his numbers to dip back down around the 50 reception range with possibly 600 yards and that’s optimistic. If he scores 4+ touchdowns that’s a victory.

9

Wiggins (MIN)

I’m wondering if his breakout 2004 season was a fluke or a sign of things to come. In 61 previous games the guy had caught only 50 passes for 482 yards and 8 touchdowns. Last year he more than doubled his reception (71) and yardage (705) totals while catching 4 more scoring passes. Better yet, he really finished with 763 yards if you use the playoff games to fill in for the games he missed due to injury. He was not all that consistent, but in 8 of 14 regular season games he either scored or at 55+ yards receiving and in 11 of 14 he caught 4+ passes. He also really never disappeared, with just two games (18 yards in the season opener, 27 against the Giants) under 33. For a guy who can score a little and appeared to be a big part of the offense things look even better with touchdown maker Randy Moss out of the way. Moss had 13 of the team’s 39 touchdown receptions last year and if Wiggins can just get 3 or 4 of those while hanging around the 600+ in yardage he will be a nice pick in the middle to late rounds.

10

Pollard (DET)

It was obvious that he faded out of the Indianapolis offense last year, only once catching more than 3 passes and with just one game over 42 yards (it was 52). He still managed to score 6 times though and discounting the games he didn’t catch a pass he wound up with what would have been a 493/9.6 season. On the Lions we all know there is a ton of speed and size outside, but down close I believe it will be all about himself and rookie receiver Mike Williams. Getting close to double digits in touchdowns is a good possibility and that’s what you want from your fantasy tight end, a lot of scores. The yardage should easily go over 500, especially if Garcia winds up starting at quarterback because he loves the tight end. Draft him as an insurance policy hoping that Harrington falters and see what happens.

11

McMichael (MIA)

All he has done is steadily improve his reception and yardage totals in three seasons. Last year he led the Dolphins with 73 receptions, managing 791 yards and 4 touchdowns. With a little more surrounding talent this season on offense it could wind up hurting the number of looks he gets, bringing him down to around 60 receptions but I expect that to be offset by his average reception (10.8 last year) getting up over the 12 mark where it was in his first two seasons. On a bad team he had 10 games with at least 51 yards or a touchdown and at midseason was on pace for a 1,070/6 season. He is a safe, often overlooked player who will be there for a reasonable price if you can hold out while the flashier names are taken. Unfortunately the “safe” part takes a big hit by his activities off the field to drop him in my rankings.

12

Franks (GB)

If only Bubba became a factor between the 20’s he would be really special. As it is you are looking at 346 yards per season, zero games missed in a 5 year career and 6.8 touchdowns per season over the last four. Throwing out the 54 receptions in 2002 he averages just 33.5 per season and last year had only two games with more than 3 catches (4 in both cases). Only twice did he have over 36 yards receiving (43, 59) so you had to count on him scoring a touchdown, which he did 8 times in 17 games but one was in the playoffs and another was week 17, both when your fantasy season is over. He’s enough to make you crazy, and you just wonder if it will ever change. Five seasons prove that it won’t. If you can live with the inconsistency of a 350/7 season then he is your man. I suppose it depends on how many question marks you have on the rest of your roster. If you don’t have more than one, it seems reasonable to grab him and see if he finally breaks through with that 600/10 season he is capable of.

13

Putzier (DEN)

The team’s pursuit of other options at the position, including the public’s speculation that they would draft Heath Miller, is a bit curious to me after the season he had last year. In 10 of the 15 games where he caught a pass, he finished with at least 36 yards receiving and averaged a healthy 15.9 yards per reception, third highest in the NFL among tight ends with 25+ catches. He had 639 yards and 3 touchdowns including their playoff loss, even with five games where he had just 4 receptions total for 69 yards. He closed the year with 60, 67 and 67 yards and while he isn’t the second coming of Shannon Sharpe he can be a nice contributor. The concern is that in two previous seasons he played in only 7 games, catching 0 and 4 passes in those campaigns respectively. I know the team acquired Stephen Alexander, but he has never been a big producer, playing in just 77% of his 3 previous teams’ games during his first 7 seasons, never totaling more than 47 receptions or 510 yards while scoring 11 TD in 86 games. I see Putzier as their main threat and look for him to grab 40-45 passes this year. If he can score a few more times he will be a nice late round gem.

14

Graham (NE)

I have been waiting for him to really emerge and I think this is going to be his season. Thus far he has been a bit of an injury risk (8 games missed in 3 years) and last year he had only two games with more than 3 receptions. Still, he did score on 7 of his 30 regular season catches including five in the opening four games. Fantasy owners looking for more of the same got just two more touchdowns (although they both came in FFL playoff weeks) and 20.83 yards receiving per game. I think this team is ready to look more like your typical NFL team with two productive receivers (Givens and Branch) and one threat at tight end. Fauria will turn 34 early in the season and is going to fade out of the game plan (he caught 16 balls for 195 yards and 2 TD last year) while Patten is gone to Washington (44 receptions for 800 yards and 7 TD). That’s almost 1,000 yards and 9 scores up for grabs. Graham is a talented player with upside and although I can’t recommend you getting him as your starter, he is a nice backup to have.

15

Jolley (NYJ)

He never really had a chance in 2004 under Norv Turner, catching only a single pass in half the team’s games and more than 2 in just three games. That is how you wind up with a 313/2 season but don’t be fooled by that. As a rookie he went 409/2 and showed a lot of promise, especially in the playoffs. The Jets got 282/5 out of Becht and Baker combined last year, then let Becht leave for Tampa Bay. That was on 28 receptions, and I expect Jolley to see more like 40 catches next year presuming that Pennington can play a full slate for a change. A guy like Chrebet (31 receptions for 397 yards last year) will yield his production to Jolley and the other receivers making it very easy for Jolley to go 400/6 this year.

16

Miller (PIT)

After Tuman caught only 9 passes (3 for touchdowns) last year it was obvious the Steelers needed a new tight end. The offense is evolving without Burress, who is replaced by Wilson and the rookie Gibson. The key to his fantasy success is how much Big Ben looks to him inside the 20 yard line. If he can score 5+ times then his value will be there, but if not I don’t see him gaining much more than about 400, maybe 450 yards in this offense. There are simply too many other weapons including Ward, Randle El, Mays, Wilson and Gibson at receiver while Staley will catch plenty of passes out of the backfield. He will grow into a bigger threat next year.

17

Cooley (WAS)

As a rookie he caught only 37 passes, but six of them were touchdowns and that’s what you want from your fantasy tight end. Just twice did he wind up with more than three receptions but he averaged a solid 4 catches for 33 yards with 0.5 touchdowns per game over his final six contests. The Redskins have poor options at receiver which gives him a better chance to up the reception total into the 45-50 range so if he can keep the touchdowns coming he should have a fine season.

18

Smith (PHI)

It sure looks like his third season will see him break out. His 321/1 rookie season was very ordinary and things got better last year (377/5) and he had another 100 yards and a touchdown during the three playoff games. Considering that the team ignored him four times, it is easy to look at him as a 500/7 player very easily, especially with a clear hold on the #1 spot now. The receiving options are well rounded now, and that could either be a good thing (less attention on him) or a bad thing (fewer passes to go around). Overall he is quietly a solid young tight end playing in the shadow of a bevy of studs around the league. Mostly he is waiver wire material unless you are in a 16 team league, in which case he deserves a hard look as a potential starter.

19

Stevens (SEA)

He is a somewhat troubled young man, but the potential is there. He showed some flashes last year with games of 35, 50, 44, 34 and 58 yards but obviously needs to be more consistent. The team brought in two veteran receivers and still has Mili who is getting long in the tooth at 32. This seems to me like his watershed season one way or the other. If he can assert himself early, expect him to hold onto his spot in the pecking order and go towards a 450-500 yard season with a handful of scores. If not, he could sputter back towards that 300/3 type production that will kill your tight end slot.

20

Anderson (OAK)

The reason the Raiders were able to deal Jolley away was this seventh round gem from last year’s draft. Before he got hurt he was on pace for a 350/2 rookie season. I could see him doing even better than that this year depending on how Teyo Johnson responds to the newly thinned out depth chart at the position. I think Courtney is the favorite to get more looks because of he has a better attitude and that fact that with his size he could wind up on the field in more situations, adding to his potential looks.

21

Williams (NO)

The potential is there for him, but he regressed last year (362/2) after a solid 2003 season (436/5). One big issue with him is poor average per catch (10.7 career) and he has never been over 11.0 in any of his four years. In 7 games last year he either failed to catch a pass or had exactly one, picking up 35+ yards just 4 times. That’s not going to get it done in the fantasy world. The good news is that Ernie Conwell at 33 (when the season starts) is clearly on the decline after catching just 10 balls last year and the opportunity is there for Boo to take over. The Saints have no trouble scoring and are in need of another reliable target when teams key on Joe Horn. He’s a definite risk, but can be had for so cheap that it hardly matters.

22

Jones (CAR)

Turning 31 during the first month of the season he still has some football left in him and has been one of the most consistently productive tight ends in the NFL during his career. In 8 seasons with the Chargers and Cards he had at least 35 receptions, 358 yards and a touchdown in every season. His career averages per 16 starts are 53 catches for 551 yards and 3 scores. His average per reception numbers dipped badly the three years he spent in Arizona (8.1, 9.4, 9.5) which is probably why they let him go but he joins a Carolina team that knows how to throw the football. Mangum had a decent season last year (323/3) and the downside of that is that he previously had career highs of 19 receptions, 215 yards and 3 total scores in 84 prior NFL games. He’ll also be 32 when the season starts so you can expect Jones to be a bigger factor in the passing game. Don’t expect huge things, but if you get desperate he is a pretty reliable bet for a 350/4 season at the very least.

23

Troupe (TEN)

This guy is one of the best athletes at his position and closed the season very strong with a pair of 75 yard efforts over his final three. One of those was against the Raiders and I watched him straight up hurdle a defender. His overall production (329/1) was a little light but if he can live up to his final four games over a full season it works out to 760/4. That won’t happen, but if he can shake off this injury it is certainly likely for him to wind up close to 500/3 even on a bad team. The Titans cleared just about every receiver they had and drafted a bunch of rookies which means he will be a familiar face for the quarterback (McNair if healthy, otherwise Volek) to look for. Keep a keen eye out for him to emerge this year or in 2006.

24

Smith (TB)

Last year Dilger caught 39 passes in this offense and there is plenty of love to go around for his rookie season. Clayton is the anchor of a not too bad set of receivers thanks to veterans like Galloway and Hilliard so I really like his prospects. He is a cheap option that could wind up giving you around 450/4 type numbers at the very least.

25

Watson (NE)

My buddy Peter King the moron thinks he will be huge, which should be reason enough not to take him. With a whopping two receptions in his single game as a rookie it is tough to know what to expect. The team already has Graham and the veteran Fauria, both listed ahead of him, and will be very patient before thrusting him to the front of the line. Heck if he gets hot early you can always pick him up but I’m not that excited about his prospects.

26

Collins (STL)

Given the fact that Manumaleuna hasn’t done a thing catching the football I expect they will give the rookie every chance to make his mark. When footballs are flying around like they will in St. Louis I think you have to pay attention to every player and he could be a serious sleeper.