1

Holt (STL)

With Harrison falling off, he’s my new Mr. Reliable atop the list of receivers. No receiver has more yards over the past three seasons (4,370) and really it isn’t that close other than Marvin (4,107). You might be surprised that Chad Johnson (3,795) is next. He hasn’t missed a game in his six year career and the questions that used to exist about his low touchdown totals (23 during his first 4 seasons) have been answered with 12 and 10 the past two years. In 13 of 18 games he played last year he either scored or had 75+ yards receiving and 7 times (including the playoff win over Seattle) he had at least 108 yards. Every so often he bursts (1,635 in 2000 and 1,696 in 2003) but at worst he will put up 1,300 or 1,400 yards. Bruce surged a bit last year but that won’t continue. He is no longer one of two great receivers on the Rams, he is the clear cut best and the safest choice as the first receive off the board although I realize Moss or Owens will probably come off most drafts earlier.

2

Moss (OAK)

No has really been better since he joined the league in 1998. Last season the injury bug hit him and now changing teams could be cause for concern. Also, Daunte won’t be throwing him those lasers and the turf won’t accentuate his speed in half of the games any longer. He will not appear indoors at all in 2005. Still, prior to last season’s aberration he had averaged 1,395 yards receiving per season and even in a shortened year in 2004 he scored 13 times, just shy of his per 16 game average for his career. Mixing in the two playoff games he had 888 yards and 15 touchdowns in 13 contests which would translate to 1,093/18.5 over a full season. On touchdowns alone he is a top receiver. Collins should be able to get him the deep ball and Porter will keep teams from double teaming him much. I wonder how many footballs there are to go around. The Raiders passed for 4,019 yards last year and of that all but Jolley (313 at tight end) and Zereoue (284 at running back) figure to be back looking for footballs. Logically it appears Doug Gabriel (551) will be frozen out as Curry (679) potentially flourishes if he returns from his injury 100%. I’m just having a tough time counting on him for 1,400 yards with the guys surrounding him and the ground game Turner wants to run. That’s what keeps him from the top of this list and makes me hesitant to take him in the first round or even early in the second. Last year was the first time he missed a game, but the move off the turf is probably going to keep him healthy.

3

Owens (PHI)

Mixing in the Super Bowl and throwing out the injury shortened Dallas game he had 1,322 yards and 14 touchdowns, projecting to 1,410/15 for a full campaign. Like Moss, touchdowns are his strength with five seasons of at least 13 scores. Over the past five seasons he has averaged 1,417 yards per 16 games played but only once in the last six seasons has he played all 16 games. Considering his attitude and the fact that they drafted Reggie Brown he is less than a sure thing at this point. Still, 11 out of 15 games he either had 100+ yards or scored. In other words, if he plays he is reliable. Brown won’t deflect that much attention on the other side, but it also moves Pinkston and Lewis into the #3 role and gives them a more balanced look which should help. All in all, he is such a tremendous touchdown threat (14.2 per 16 games played over the past five seasons) that even without the eye popping yardage you have to consider him at the top of the receiving chart. 

4

Johnson (CIN)

If you’ve read all of this you already know that he ranks behind only Holt and Harrison on the yardage gained over the past three seasons, averaging 1,265 yards while scoring 8 times a season. Nine times he had 89+ yards or scored last year, and during the stretch run of FFL he had a touchdown in five of the final six weeks of the fantasy season. Twelve times he caught at least 5 balls and for a guy as explosive as he is that’s what you want for consistent output. The transition to Carson Palmer hurt his average (13.4 after it was 15.86 over the prior two seasons) but that should work itself out. His college teammate T.J. stuck around and they drafted Henry and Perry so they will have plenty of threats to keep defenders from doubling him up. All told he is quietly creeping into what will be a fab four of FFL receivers.

5

Horn (NO)

After three solid seasons from 2000-2002 where he averaged 1,306 yards and 8 touchdowns while catching 88.3 passes I wondered aloud if he was slipping after 2003 with only 973 yards although he did score 10 times. Then last year he smelled contract with a career high in yards (1,399) touchdowns (11) and matching his best in receptions (94). In all but two games he had either 75 yards or a touchdown, with blowout losses to Arizona and San Diego the exceptions. Seven times he had at least 91 yards so we know what he can bring to the table. That being said, he is 33 and although he has missed just one game since 1998 you have to factor that into the equation. I don’t expect him to improve on last season, but the Saints really don’t have another reliable threat at the position. Henderson was invisible as a rookie, this year’s rookie Lyman is out and Stallworth has been nothing more than a decent #2. Pathon took his 581 yards to Seattle making it even more likely that Joe will catch another 90+ balls. That’s where his value lies on an offense that has never had trouble scoring points.

6

Johnson (HOU)

He is somewhat of a sleeping giant as he enters the much hyped third season when receivers are supposed to magically emerge. His receptions, yards and touchdowns all went up over his rookie season and I see no reason for them not to go up again after he picked up 1,142 yards and 6 touchdowns. In half of his games he picked up 86+ yards or scored and he posted four games with 107 or more yards. I would like to see him have more than 6 games with more than 4 receptions (his average was 108.3 when he did) and with Carr developing that should happen this year. They drafted Jerome Mathis who could turn into a nice threat in the slot while Gaffney has steadily improved so the talent surrounding him should be decent. All things considered, if other owners jump on receivers before you do (while you smartly load up your backfield) he’s a guy to keep your eye out for.

7

Harrison (IND)

Last year I sensed a bit of a slowdown with him and it played out in the form of Manning making the most out of the team’s other threats. He still wound up with a staggering 15 touchdowns, but his 1,113 yards marked his lowest total since his breakout season in 1999. It is tough to knock a guy who has six straight seasons with double digits in touchdowns (12.8 average) with 1,451 yards per season over that period. What concerns me is that even with all the scoring, when the playoffs rolled around he had outputs of just 51 and 44 yards. Those were two of the nine times he failed to reach 60 yards and four other times he had 81 yards or less. The positive side of that coin is that in the regular season he had either 98 yards or a touchdown in all but three games, a 35-14 win over Oakland, 49-14 wipeout of Houston and 31-28 victory over Houston (he had 81 in that one). I know for sure that this trio of Indy receivers won’t have 1,000/10 each the way they did in 2004, but the departure of Pollard at tight end (309/6) will leave 29 more footballs out there for the receivers. In the end, he starts the season at 33 and although he has missed just 4 games in nine seasons you just never know when that run will end. I think he is a very safe bet, but no longer the clear cut dominant receiver he was in the 1999-2002 period.

8

Ward (PIT)

His 2004 stats are a little deceiving. Let’s throw away the final two games when the season was wrapped up and replace them with the two playoff games. That leaves him with 1,186 yards and 6 touchdowns on 90 receptions. The bad news is that after the first six games, only twice more in the regular season did he reach 60 yards and he scored only twice in that stretch. However, this is a guy who averaged 100.3 receptions over his prior three seasons and had 12 and 10 touchdowns the previous two. He won’t have a lot of yards with a career average of 12.0 yards per catch, but with Burress gone he should be scoring more. Don’t mistake that for lack of surrounding talent because they picked up Wilson, still have Randle El and Mays, and drafted Fred Gibson out of Georgia plus tight end Heath Miller. Even a team built on running the ball has plenty of room for him to catch another 100 passes.

9

Walker (GB)

I love how he has one big season and wants a huge money contract with a big bonus. From a fantasy perspective we’re looking at a player with a short history. However, in all but three games last year he had at least 88 yards or scored. The exceptions were the opening win in Carolina (37) and the two wins over Detroit (62, 26) although he also disappeared in the playoff loss to Minnesota (27). His second season showed promise when he scored 9 touchdowns and he followed that up with 12 this year. Another reason for optimism is that while Driver had a big year in 2004 (1,208/9) it was probably his final season with those kind of numbers. They drafted Murphy out of Texas A&M as insurance against Ferguson whose season ended injury so overall they should have a good group of threats. Forgive me if I don’t fall over myself trying to draft him as my #1 receiver, but I tend to shy away from players who are not proven over two or three seasons. 

10

Wayne (IND)

I really touted him before last season and he delivered 1,210 yards and 12 touchdowns, to say nothing of the 221 he dropped on Denver in the playoffs. Throwing out the two games against the Pats (4 catches, 77 yards) he had 1,389 yards and 14 touchdowns in 15 games. Eleven times in the regular season he had at least 88 yards or scored, and other than the Jags and Patriots (four games total) he scored in 13 of 16 games and had 5+ receptions against that number of opponents as well. His 2003 season (838/7) showed he had room to grow and I think he still does. I could see Harrison and Stokley’s production drop, but of the group he is the one I believe is most likely to duplicate last year’s success.

11

Coles (NYJ)

He is back with the Jets where he really flashed onto the scene in 2002 with 1,264 yards and 5 touchdowns. More importantly, he has averaged 87 catches over the past three seasons even with a collection of clowns throwing to him the past two in Washington. I’m looking at someone who will catch 90 passes and has shown he can average 14.5 or so per grab so that’s 1,300 yards with a half dozen touchdowns for good measure. Heck, that’s not terrible production from a #1 FFL receiver is it? Going back to Pennington really bolsters his value and while I’d like to see something better than Fiedler behind Chad it doesn’t concern me that much. He has a decent receiver on the other side in McCareins and they added a good tight end in Jolley from the Raiders. These are all good things.

12

Jackson (SEA)

I’m not sure I have given him enough respect in recent years and he showed last year that he can step up his game after logging a career high 87 after averaging 63.3 over his first four seasons. Three of the last four years he has at least 1,081 yards and he has a respectable 7.1 touchdowns per 16 games played. The four times he played a full season he had at least 6. These are not spectacular numbers, but in 10 of 17 games last year (playoff loss included) he had at least 91 yards receiving or scored. He did have a lull with three games where he didn’t score and posted just 33, 39 and 45 yards but there are not a lot of true #1 receivers out there to choose from. He is their main threat since Koren Robinson can’t get it together. The concerns would be that KoRo does figure it out and it turns into a split situation or that their new additions Pathon and Jurevicius split up the pie. I don’t think that matters too much. He’s a guy you can rely on as a steady #2 fantasy receiver.

13

Boldin (AZ)

His rookie season produced a stunning 1,377 yards and 8 touchdowns on 101 receptions. When he got hurt before last year it certainly slowed him down as his per game average dipped almost 24 yards and reception average was down 2.2 while he caught only one touchdown in 10 games. Four of those games produced at least 75 yards, but only two of them made it over 87. On the plus side, he caught 5.6 passes a game which works out to 89.6 for a full season. You know how I love players who catch a lot of passes and even with six fewer games he almost led the team (rookie Fitzgerald had two more) proving that he is their top threat. The insertion of Warner probably won’t change much although I could certainly see Fitzgerald being the bigger touchdown producer. If he is in the 85-95 range in receptions and can get the average back up to the 13.0-14.0 he will be back to prominence with 1,100-1,300 yards and some touchdowns.

14

Smith (CAR)

For my money, he walks into the production Muhammad took with him to Chicago (1,405/16) even if he is a more of a speed threat while Muhsin was a physical presence. Last year he never got the chance to exploit the “hands off” rule interpretation because he got hurt in the opener, but he was explosive in 2003 with 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns during the regular season and huge during their Super Bowl run. With Colbert on the other side and a good running game there is reason to expect him to exceed his 2003 totals and reach towards #1 FFL receiver status. For now he’s a guy you can snare in the draft’s middle rounds and have great success with as your #2.

15

Bruce (STL)

I pointed out a dip in his production starting in 2000 prior to last season and he went out and recorded 1,292 yards (most since 2000) on 89 receptions (most since 1995) and six touchdowns. Still, I think we are seeing him reverse roles with Holt as his touchdowns drop, having averaged 6 over the past four years. Those three “fading” seasons produced only 1,054 yards on 70.7 catches and I have to wonder if a guy who turns 33 during the season might be looking at this type of output this year after that blip. Last year actually supports my theory because he started huge with 105.2 yards per game over the first five and then averaged just 67.2 (which projects to 1,075 for a full season) after that. What saved him the fantasy landscape is that five of his six touchdowns came in the final 11 games and he still posted five more games with at least 86 yards. He’s a fine receiver, probably going to the Hall of Fame, but I don’t know that you can stick him in there at #1 with all that much confidence unless you have 12 or 14 teams in your league.

16

Mason (BAL)

I think he is the perfect addition to a team lacking a #1 receiver. He posted 95 and 96 receptions the past two years while scoring 7.1 touchdowns per 16 games played over his last five seasons as a Titan. Twelve times last year he had at least 74 yards or scored a touchdown, with two of the exceptions coming at the end of their dismal season. Four straight seasons over 1,000 yards is the kind of consistency you want from a fantasy receiver who has 1,209 yards per 16 starts the last four seasons. Boller will no doubt lean heavily on him after the team sent Taylor (421 yards) and Johnson (373) packing. Derrick is ready to have two very solid seasons as a Raven before age catches up to him. 

17

Williams (DET)

The big knock I have is that he showed signs of not being durable as a rookie. However, in half of his games he had at least 64 yards or scored which is tough to do in your first season. He also had at least 4 catches in 8 games although he really had only two big games in terms of yardage (135, 104) and every other game was under 76 or less. On the flip side, he scored 8 times with three games where he doubled up. Punching his totals to a full season (he missed two games) you get 934 yards with 9.1 scores. That’s not great, but you can expect more production out of the guy who among their three #1 picks is the most solid in the lineup. He has an extra year in the lineup over rookie Mike Williams and Charles Rogers hasn’t shown he can stay healthy. The addition of Kevin Johnson provides good depth to this unit and I fully expect Roy to be comfortably over 1,000 yards with plenty of touchdowns. He could be on the fringe of #1 receiver status by the end of the season.

18

Evans (BUF)

He really closed out his rookie season with a flurry, averaging 78.2 yards per game while scoring 7 times over his final six games. It was a far cry from when I watched him appear invisible during a loss to the Raiders in week 2, catching only a garbage time pass for 65 yards at the end. Clearly he showed that he should be in the 75-80 reception range this season with plenty of big play ability. In six games he had a reception good for at least 46 yards and quietly had at least 63 yards or a touchdown 10 times. There are a lot of good receivers who couldn’t get that done last year. The move to Losman is either going to help or hurt him, that remains to be seen. However, you have to take some chances to succeed and he could be well worth gambling on as the third receiver you draft.

19

Burress (NYG)

He got off to a very slow start last year and never really found his groove, catching more than 3 passes in only three of the 11 games (including playoffs) and just once did he go over 70 yards, that being against Cleveland. There was a burst of four touchdowns in three games starting with that 136 yard effort against the Browns and his comeback game against Baltimore was good (97 yards and a touchdown) but highlights were hard to come by for him overall. Throwing in the playoffs his stats project to 939 yards and 7.4 touchdowns, hardly #1 material. His 2001 (1,008/6) and 2002 (1,325/7) seasons seemed to indicate he was poised to make a big impact on the fantasy world, but this is why I don’t like guys who don’t catch many passes (he averages 64.8 per 16 starts over four seasons). He has only 6.0 touchdowns per 16 started over that span and that should be his signature given his size. In New York you have to think Eli will be leaning on him, but they didn’t get a single touchdown out of their starters last year. With big question marks you enter the risk/reward area of FFL. If you can grab him cheaply as your fourth receiver I think there is no doubt it is a good move. If you rely on him as your #2 it is not smart. He probably settles in as a #3 when all is said and done.

20

Clayton (TB)

He has the potential to be a great bargain for fantasy owners after a solid rookie campaign. He had at least 4 receptions in all but three games, one of which was against Arizona (2 catches, 86 yards and a touchdown). Eleven times he had least 60 yards, finishing with 1,193 yards and 7 touchdowns. His finish was also solid with 87.5 yards and a touchdown per game over the past 4. Even better for those of you with partial points (if you don’t you are dumb) he had just two games with less than 53 yards receiving, a one catch (15 yards) game during a 27-0 win over Atlanta and an early 2 catch (35 yards) effort in a 30-20 loss in Oakland. They drafted three rookies to be sure they have some healthy bodies to keep a little bit of pressure off him, but I don’t really see it happening. Galloway is injury prone and Hilliard (signed away from the Giants) is not the type of player defenses focus on. Nevertheless, he is a clear #1 and those are very valuable at the position. Look for him to step it up.

21

Chambers (MIA)

It sure looked like he was ready to break looses with #1 receiver stats after recording 963 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2003. Then Ricky Williams retired and the quarterback situation went in the dumper. He still wound up with a respectable 898 yards and 7 touchdowns. Unfortunately, there are usually only 3 spots in FFL and with 30 players ahead of him in yardage he was at best a #3 last year. However, he did have either 103+ yards or a touchdown in half of his games. In other words, if you knew when to start him he was deadly last year. The flipside is 6 games 37 or fewer yards and only 47 in the other contest. Games like that will kill you, especially in weeks 14-16 (32 average yards, no scores). I like the fact that they have Booker on the other side and Boston looks like he will join them at some point if he is healthy and out of suspension trouble. The bigger question is who the quarterback will be. Frerotte and Feeley don’t bring chills up fantasy owner’s spines. Well, not good ones anyway. Regardless, he is their top threat and with 7.23 touchdowns per 16 starts over his career he has shown that he can score while numbers like his 897.5 receiving yards average over that period (per 16 starts) can always spike up. A good late round bet.

22

Porter (OAK)

The addition of Moss creates an interesting situation for him. Yes he scored 9 touchdowns, but six of those were in two games, a snow bowl in Denver and a shootout late against hapless Tennessee. In three games (adding in a 31-26 loss to New Orleans) he collected 396 of the 998 yards he had on the season, and all but two of his touchdowns. He failed to reach 65 yards or score in 10 games last year, leaving fantasy owners very disappointed who were looking at his 2002 season (9 touchdowns on just 51 receptions) as the start of something big. Again, he doesn’t catch that many passes (54.5 per 16 games played over the last three seasons) and that is your first red flag. It is also the reason the Raiders dealt for Moss. Now Jerry is freed up and probably gets more looks. Moss will probably eat up the production of guys like Curry, Gabriel and the departed tight end Jolley (110 receptions combined for 1,543 yars and 10 touchdowns) leaving Porter right around where he was in 2004. He settles nicely into a #3 role on fantasy teams and I would even suggest trying to get him if you have grabbed Moss earlier.

23

Burleson (MIN)

Drafting Troy Williamson wasn’t really what made it possible to trade Randy Moss, it was Nate’s presence. This guy came up very big down the stretch and continued to be good in the playoffs. In the final five games (including playoffs) he put up 80.6 yards (which figures to 1,290 for a season) with 4 touchdowns (12.8 for a season). The 5 games when Moss wasn’t in the lineup he averaged a healthy 59.4 yards and scored another 4 touchdowns, posting a combined 73 yards with a touchdown in the two games where Randy was obviously limited. All told, after Randy went down the 13 games produced numbers that would equate to 977 yards with 11 touchdowns. They have a strong group of receivers, but he is clearly their biggest threat to catch passes. Marcus Robinson is more of red zone threat because of his size and Williamson is faster, but that only frees him up to increase his reception total to more like 80+ and his yardage to the 1,200-1,300 range. Travis Taylor and Kelly Campbell give them a well rounded group of receivers, but at the same time probably won’t steal too much action from him.

24

Lelie (DEN)

He fit in the year 3 boom with 1,084 yards and 7 touchdowns. What concerns me is that while a 20.1 yard average is awesome, he only caught 56 passes in 17 games. Only twice did he haul in more than 4 passes and in 10 of 17 he had 3 or fewer. Still, in the regular season he put up 12 games with 80+ yards or a touchdown and that is quality work for a #2 FFL receiver. He never really exploded, with no multiple touchdown games and only two games over 88 yards (94 and 105). The prior two seasons (72 receptions in 32 games) lend a history to his lack of catching many passes, leaving him with 2.63 per game as a pro. The good news is that Rod Smith is slowing down as the team’s #1 receiver, a title he is likely to hand over this year. Ashley also has the size to be a bigger touchdown contributor. The receiving group is not very deep, with only last year’s rookie Watts (31 receptions for 385 yards) sticking out. That leads me to believe Lelie could easily catch more like 65-75 passes or more this season. He won’t average 20.1 again, but even with around 17 he is still in line for 1,100-1,300 yards with a half dozen touchdowns. 

25

Muhammad (CHI)

Am I crazy? Do I not realize how dominant he was in 2004? Yes, he posted at least 94 yards or scored in 12 games last year with 1,405 yards and 16 touchdowns on 93 receptions. Do you see him grabbing that many balls from Grossman or Orton? Will he score much on a team that averaged 14.4 points per game last year? The team threw 9 touchdown passes total last year. I have more. Isn’t this the same player who from 2001-2003 averaged just 898 yards per 16 games played with 2.8 touchdowns while missing 8 games due to injury? Honestly, I could see him in that range for Chicago this year. There won’t be anyone on the opposite side as guys like Bradley and Currie (both rookies) learn how to be pros and I don’t know how much to expect out of Justin Gage after he caught only 29 passes in his first 26 games. Flat out, let someone else draft him. If he has a big season, tip your cap to that owner knowing you saved yourself the headaches. I know he will be one of the players who will jump off the board way too soon. Owners will look back in December and wonder why he was taken so high.

26

Fitzgerald (AZ)

He didn’t take long to get going as a rookie, averaging 4.33 receptions over his first six games for 61.83 yards and two touchdowns. If he could have kept that pace up he would have had almost 1,000 yards. Seven times he had at least 70 yards or scored, and he killed in FFL playoff time with two touchdowns in both week 15 and 16. He didn’t catch a ton of passes (58) but he had 9 games with at least 4 so he rarely disappeared as a rookie. His production dropped a little when Boldin returned, but take note of him outscoring Anquan 5-1 during the 10 games they played together. Bryant Johnson is really the odd man out of this rotation as Warner takes over the passing responsibilities. It looks to me like Boldin will lead the team in receptions, Fitzgerald in touchdowns and Johnson in plays made while overlooked. Larry’s reception total should jump up this season and so should his average (13.4) as Warner delivers the football down the field.

27

Houshmandzadeh (CIN)

Since he missed 2003 last year was his year 3 in the NFL and just like his college and pro teammate Chad Johnson he broke out with 978 yards and 4 touchdowns. Consistency was the issue with him because only 6 times did he have 81+ yards or score. Seven times he failed to exceed 43 yards or score, a killer for fantasy owners. He did come on huge at the end of the season (i.e. FFL playoffs) with 95.5 yards per game over the final 6 with 4 touchdowns. That is 1,528/10.7 pace. He won’t reach that with Johnson around, but you get the point. Drafting him as a #2 receiver is probably a mistake for a few reasons. They drafted Henry and Perry because they don’t know what to expect from Kelley Washington’s health. I’m not sure what if any impact the other receivers will have on the Oregon State duo’s dominance of the looks so that is a concern. T.J. hasn’t shown the consistency you want yet, but he is a player you can take as your #3 receiver assuming you make a smart, swift decision as to who your first receiver off the bench will be.

28

Bennett (TEN)

Flat out, I don’t know another player who has ever posted a better three game stretch, the last of which I saw first hand in Oakland. Those games produced 172.3 yards and 2.67 touchdowns, fueling an amazing season of 1,247 yards and 11 scores. In half of his games he wound up with 80+ yards or a score, something no one saw coming. However, six times he caught 3 or fewer passes, even if one of those wound up being a trio of scores and 124 yards. Even throwing out the three big games, if you multiply out other 12 he played in (he missed one) you get 973 yards and 9.3 touchdowns. That being said, Mason takes his 96 receptions to Baltimore, seemingly giving him the chance to repeat his success but at the same time drawing the defensive attention his way. At 6’5” he is a big guy who should do pretty well even in tough situations. They drafted three guys to compete for time in the #3 slot, expecting Tyrone Calico to return strong from injury and start. I will call this the Muhammad effect. He has rookies on the field with him, a quarterback who can get him the football and a team that will be passing to catch up on a weekly basis, just like in Carolina last year. I tend to think he will back up his 2004 season with another solid campaign. 

29

Moulds (BUF)

Well it’s not only an odd year, the Bills have a new unproven quarterback. Dating back to 1998 Eric has been an up and down player, literally. His even year average yardage is 1,256 with 7.25 touchdowns on 87.3 receptions and not a single game missed. His odd year production dips to 892.7 yards (high of 994) with 4.33 touchdowns on 65.3 receptions (high of 67) and five games missed. How do you reconcile something with 7 years of history supporting it? Last season was actually the worst of his even year showings over this span, with only 1,043 yards and he was still as good as any odd year. I don’t know what to expect of Losman, but at 31 Moulds isn’t getting any younger or better. He has averaged 81.5 receptions over the last 7 years, but his average reception figure has dropped each season over that span starting in 1998. Not since 2001 (13.5) has he hit even 13 yards per catch. With the fleet Lee Evans on board, I think he slips into the #2 role and won’t be in line for a boost in production over the 911.5 yardage total he has averaged the past two seasons with only 6 total scores. Once he was a great fantasy factor, but he is starting his slide.

30

Smith (JAX)

When he missed four games to a drug suspension in 2003 I told fantasy owners not to give up on him as a reliable player. He responded with 1,172 yards and 6 touchdowns. He is not the same player who averaged 1,329 yards and 6.83 touchdowns from 1996-2001 but over the last three seasons he has maintained his scoring ability with 6.18 scores per 16 starts. He also has 1,092 yards on average in that period. The most amazing stat is probably his 15.8 average catch last year, the second highest of his career. He is 36, and turns 37 by the Pro Bowl so you have to wonder if he can stay healthy even if in 10 seasons he has missed just one with an injury. The fact of the matter is that he is still their best receiver by a mile. Matt Jones is a project, Reggie Williams is a disappointment and Troy Edwards is a decent #2 at best. The injury risk costs him a little in my book because I am not much of a risk taker. However, it does appear he has another good season in him.

31

Givens (NE)

At some point one of the Patriot receivers is going to step up with a big season. Givens could be that guy after his third season produced career highs of 56 receptions and 874 yards. He only scored 3 times, but did have 6 in 13 games during the 2003 campaign and in every postseason game last year. The first half of his season was awesome with 80.5 yards per game (projects to 1,288) and in his first 9 games he had at least 4 catches in all but one contest. Then the wheels came off and he later missed two games. If he can put it all together on a team where Patten took his 800/7 season to Washington there is a good shot for him to be a fantasy factor. I believe he could form a 1,000 yard duo with Branch this season. A lot of that depends on how much they use David Terrell (signed from Chicago). He is one of those late round guys you gamble on as you take two or three bench receivers. If he pays off all the better, but if he doesn’t you aren’t any worse off.

32

McCardell (SD)

Throwing in the playoff loss to the Jets, he played in half a season last year and doubling his stats you would wind up with 886 yards and 4 touchdowns. Those aren’t great numbers, but in his first four on the team he was utilized better with 75 yards per game. How he fits into the group next year when Reche Caldwell returns is a big question. Eric Parker led the team at receiver with 47 catches while the huge season from tight end Gates overshadowed everyone who lined up wide. This is a guy who over the past five seasons (for three teams) has averaged 84.2 receptions per 16 starts. He has a reasonable 1,056 yards and 6 touchdowns over that same period. We’re left with a pretty reliable player who is going to lead an otherwise pretty weak group of receivers. He will be 36 by the time the playoffs roll around so the question is whether you should roll the dice on less proven Caldwell coming off the injury of Keenan at the tail end of his career. The better of the two is likely to have a #3 FFL receiver type season. 

33

Branch (NE)

If every game was the Super Bowl he would be the top player in fantasy football, but with 10 games missed in three seasons he just can’t stay on the field. Still, throwing out the Arizona game he didn’t finish and mixing in the playoffs he had a season equivalent to 1,034 yards and 7.3 touchdowns. Can he sustain that production over a full season? I think he can. The team lost Patten and even with Brown returning he is no longer a factor at receiver for them. Incoming Terrell is the X factor, but that not withstanding it seems lined up for Givens and Branch to both be in that 1,000-1,150 yard range with a half dozen touchdowns each. Brady is consistently over 3,600 yards passing so someone has to be on the receiving end. As cheaply as you can grab him in a fantasy draft I think he is one of the better bets as a bench receiver.

34

Driver (GB)

It was a nice return from obscurity from him and now I guess we’re wondering if he is an odd/even type player like Eric Moulds. His 2002/2004 seasons produced an average of 1,136 yards on 77 receptions with 9 touchdowns each year. His other four years in the league (49 games) have yielded just 1,141 yards on 89 catches and 5 scores. That’s hardly what I would call consistent although including the playoff loss he did have 78+ yards or a touchdown in 10 of 17 games last year, only four times falling under 48 yards (39, 31, 28 and 33 to be exact) so from that standpoint he was pretty consistent. The team drafted Murphy in case Ferguson doesn’t return right and if that turns out to be the case this could wind up being more of a two man show as it was last year when he and Walker combined for 57% of the team’s yardage and 58% of the touchdowns. I like his chances to do well, but I’d hardly call him a lock for another 1,200/9.

35

Stokley (IND)

Here are two lines on him. The first line is 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 10 touchdowns. The second is 68 receptions for 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns. You would take either, right? The prior is his first five seasons in the league (39 games played) and the other is last season. Sure, in half of the games he had at least 97 yards receiving or scored, but in 6 others (plus one in the playoffs) he failed to exceed 41 yards or score a touchdown. The reality of the situation is that Wayne is moving towards being their #1, Harrison is still going to catch a lot of passes while Stokley is looking for scraps. He only caught 68 balls last year amidst the single most prolific passing season in NFL history. Wayne is still getting better and I don’t believe that is true of Stokley. This is another player who will be overvalued and taken too soon by less savvy fantasy owners.

36

Colbert (CAR)

He had a mildly productive rookie season with 5 games picking up at least 71 yards or scoring, finishing with 754 yards and 5 touchdowns. Relatively speaking he didn’t disappear that much either, only three times finishing with less than 39 yards. There will be 93 more passes to be had after Muhammad’s departure and he will fight with Steve Smith (back from injury) for those balls. Without much talent behind them, both of these guys could go over 1,000 with the only question being who scores more touchdowns.

37

Morgan (DAL)

I was surprised to see the Cowboys not go wide receiver in the draft, and he might be the reason they didn’t. Even coming off a season (split between Dallas and Cleveland) with just one game over 46 yards (it was 76) and two with more than 3 receptions (4 each) while scoring 3 times he does show promise. In 2002 he wound up with 964 yards and 7 touchdowns before stumbling in 2003 (516/3). He joins a team where Keyshawn catches most of the passes, but he can be a touchdown and/or deep threat. Glenn is reunited with his old quarterback Bledsoe and we’ll see how that works out although more likely Bryant will be on the field most of the time making plays. He is certainly a player to look out if you can start 4 receivers or have a 12-14 team league as someone you can steal late with very little risk. 

38

McCareins (NYJ)

The move to the Jets didn’t do a lot for his production with his yards (813 to 770) and touchdowns (7 to 4) falling along with his average reception (17.3 to 13.8) He caught more passes (47 to 56) and in the playoffs had 13 receptions for 169 yards in the two games, closing the year with at least 5 catches and 62 yards in his final 4 games including those contests. In 11 of 18 games he wound up with at least 62 yards or a touchdown, but never scored twice in a game or had over 87 yards (his total in the playoff win in San Diego). Now he gets Coles as his running mate and another season in the system. Both of those will help him catch more passes and possibly score more. He is another one of these players who won’t really be on the fantasy radar in most drafts and rightfully so. However, he can be a useful player off the bench when you need a sure fire 60+ yards or if you are in either a deep league or one with extra starting spots.

39

Toomer (NYG)

In the 1999-2003 range he averaged a solid 1,146 yards (never under 1,094) and 6.2 touchdowns (never under 5) with 74.8 receptions. Then last year he fell off the map with just 747 yards on 51 catches and no scores. The switch to Warner and then Manning at quarterback was obviously the cause, and now we’re left to wonder if having a better threat on the other side (Burress) and more polish from Eli will produce a rebound season. He is still somewhat in his late prime years (he turns 31 at the start of the season) and has missed just 1 games since his rookie year in 1996 so those are positive things. The lack of a big upside where touchdowns are concerned (high of 8, average of 4.66 per 16 starts discounting rookie year) and with a career high of 82 receptions you don’t run the risk of “missing out” by not drafting him. That leaves him as a reasonably good risk to take in the late rounds of your draft as your fifth receiver.

40

Bryant (CLE)

Even switching teams he managed to have 4 games with at least 87 yards or a touchdown, twice exploding for 131 and 115 yards with two scores in each contest. He finished with 812 yards, scoring only those 4 times with 58 receptions. His career averages per 16 starts of 48 catches for 713 yards and 4.1 touchdowns don’t really pop out, but he comes in as a reliable, improving threat. With Northcutt, Davis and Edwards they have four marginal receivers fighting for the top spot. Last year Northcutt led the group with 806 yards, but Bryant caught more passes per game as a member of the Browns (4.20 to 3.44) meaning he was the bigger threat. In uncertainty there is opportunity, and if you are someone who isn’t sold on Edwards taking over the world as a rookie then you can look at Bryant as the alternative.

41

Lloyd (SF)

The top threat for Rattay or Alex Smith if he can win the job. Now that Wilson and Conway have taken their 1,044 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns elsewhere the pressure really falls on him to be that true #1. Seven times last year he had a decent 50+ yards while finishing with 565 and 6 scores. Since he missed 3 games that would translate to a 695/7.4 season which if improved slightly upon puts him on WR3 watch. He is also in that magical year 3 meaning fantasy owners everywhere expect him to break out. I think he could if Rattay hangs on as the starter because he is better than Smith at this point. Watch what happens in the exhibition season and if your roster warrants it use a pick on him should Rattay be named the starter. He has the potential to chew up a lot of receptions because the guys he will contend with (washed up Morton, unproven Battle and disappointing rookie Woods) have no relationship with Rattay. Should Smith win the job that won’t apply and buyer beware.

42

Caldwell (SD)

He got off to a nice start last year with 65+ yards and a touchdown in three of his first four games, but wound up hurt and on the IR. That opened the door for Gates to dominate the receiving action on the Chargers. Parker had a nice showing (47 receptions for 690 yards and 4 touchdowns) but until McCardell came along it was all on the young tight end. Now he lines up opposite the veteran Caldwell with Parker slipping back into the #3 role while the team has Jackson on board as a new WR/TE rookie threat. Suddenly there are four or five targets out there for defenses to keep an eye on. Reche can also count on maximum effort for Brees who has Rivers breathing down his neck and a big contract looming. Something tells me he has real sleeper potential for a 900/8 type season if he can assert himself early on as a reliable receiver.

43

Moss (WAS)

After his year 3 burst in 2003 with 1,105 yards and 10 touchdowns it appeared he was ready to be a fantasy monster. Then last year he caught just 45 passes. Mixing in the playoffs he had a season equivalent to 912 yards with 5.65 touchdowns. Now he joins a Washington team with turmoil at quarterback and uncertainty surrounding the receiver roles. Perhaps he can be their lead threat and break through in the reception department to the 80-90 range. For now he is a home run threat who relies on big plays, leaving fantasy owners hoping for the long touchdown. In 6 of 17 games he had at least 97 yards or a touchdown, but 10 times he failed to exceed 62 yard or score. The inconsistency can drive you mad, but it all depends on what role he has on your team. As a #3 receiver Moss will help your team. As a #2 receiver he could potentially kill it.

44

Smith (DEN)

Last year (1,174/7) stopped a trend where his numbers had dipped since 2000. Even still, over the past three seasons he has only 1,027 yards per 16 starts with 5.1 touchdowns. At 35 he isn’t getting any faster or better either. At some point Lelie and Watts will take over this team, and 2005 will be the start of that. On the positive side he is a clutch performer, proving it in the playoffs with 99 yards and a touchdown during a blowout loss. In 8 of 17 games he had at least 6 receptions as well while in 13 of 17 he had 76+ yards or scored, making him a reliable fantasy starter in the #2 or #3 position. I don’t like to be around when the bubble bursts and it could happen for him this year. Perhaps he has another 1,000 yard season in him and if he does more power to whoever drafts him, but don’t get stuck with the risk.

45

Johnson (DAL)

What I like about him is that he catches a lot of passes, 83.4 per 16 starts over the past four years. The touchdown production from the early part of his career (8.0 per 16 over his first five years) has faded (4.2 per 16 over his last four years) though, making him much less of a fantasy factor. He wound up with 981 yards and 6 touchdowns last year with at least 73 yards or a touchdown in half of his games. Now Bledsoe joins the Cowboys, but I don’t see that affecting his production too much. Key is still the #1 receiver on this team and it is their hope that Morgan becomes the deep threat on the other side. From a fantasy perspective, he is a borderline #3 and you have to keep in mind that only once has he caught 90 balls or gone over 1,170 yards (106 for 1,266 in 2001). The upside really isn’t there with him, making it a smarter move to have him as your fourth receiver which means first off the bench in most leagues.