The playoffs kick off without LeBron James, which isn’t a good thing but they might finally result in a champion outside of the “Big 6” that have dominated since 1983 when Philadelphia won it all. The Lakers (5) Pistons (3) Bulls (6) Rockets (2) Celtics (2) and Spurs (2) hold all of the titles over those twenty one seasons. Only Los Angeles is missing from the dance this season although Boston and Chicago are really the only teams in that group who have no realistic shot to win it all.

As wrong as I was about some of my preseason picks, I did get 6 out of 8 east playoff teams, missing on the Knicks and Cavs missing the playoffs with the Sixers and Bulls took spots I didn’t think they would earn. In the West I got another 6 of 8 and was wrong about the Lakers and Timberwolves not getting in while the Suns and Sonics took their spots.
#1 Miami (59-23) vs. #8 New Jersey (42-40)

Shaq daddy’s Heat rolled past these guys this season three times, but that’s not the whole story. He is not at full strength and the playoff tested Nets are boosted by the return of Jefferson. This is a Heat team that dominated a terrible division (15-1 record against the Southeast) but really protected their home court (35-6) which makes them a tough team to upset early. I know Vince Carter and Jason Kidd will be up for this series, and something tells me they steal one of the first two games in this series. Still, they run out of gas and Miami wins 4-2.

#2 Detroit (54-28) vs. #7 Philadelphia (43-39)

The Webber acquisition didn’t catapult the Sixers the way they thought it would and this is a very tough first round draw. The Pistons have been pretty much laying low while they wait for the playoffs up to this point, letting Miami take all of the attention from them. In the season series Detroit took the first three before being blown away in late March when Philly was entering their playoff push. Obviously if Webber brings his top game this could be a tough seven game series. I don’t think he will. Only two East teams have a winning record on the road and the Pistons are one of them. I look for them to get out of this series early by a 4-1 margin.

#3 Boston (45-37) vs. #6 Indiana (44-38)

This is an interesting series because the Celtics have been so hot and the Pacers have overcome so much. There isn’t a lot to go on because Indiana won two close meetings way back in November, one at each venue while Boston got a convincing home win at the end of January. The key here is O’Neal and even if he plays he’s not in very good shape. Since Reggie Miller is certain to lay everything on the line in possibly the final series of his career and the Pacers win 4-3.

#4 Chicago (47-35) vs. #5 Washington (45-37)

I love this series because we have two teams that in a way are happy to be in the playoffs and it could lead to a free and loose set of games. Gordon has made a huge impact on the Bulls, but the loss of Curry will put pressure on others to score. That’s not good news against a Wizards team with plenty of guys who can put the ball in the basket. The home team won all three games in the season series, but I think a road victory in the final game turns it for Washington, 4-3.

EAST SEMIFINALS

Miami vs. Washington

This is a walkover because there is no one on the Wizards who can cover Shaq. At some point they will shoot well enough to win a game so the Heat win 4-1.

Detroit vs. Indiana

Again, the Pistons have been laying low and waiting to explode. They have more talent and confidence, which leads to a 4-2 series win and Reggie Miller’s final game.

EAST FINAL

Miami vs. Detroit

Say what you want about how much O’Neal can dominate, but he couldn’t do a thing in the 2004 finals against these guys. What makes you think he will do anything now? Wade will choke up badly and the Pistons win this one easier than a 4-2 game count would indicate.


#1 Phoenix (62-20) vs. #8 Memphis (45-37)

The Suns are lucky that the T’Wolves didn’t sneak into the playoffs because that team of veterans would have given them a lot of trouble. Instead they get a team that stumbled into the playoffs. All four games were pretty tight between these teams with both earning a road and home win in the set. I was wrong about the Suns before the season started, and I can’t pick against them now so they win 4-1.

#2 San Antonio (59-23) vs. #7 Denver (49-33)

The Spurs might be feeling a little vulnerable with Duncan’s injury issues and the Nuggets are white hot since Karl took over at coach. That could lead to an intense series. The season set was just that with the Spurs winning home and road games to start, while the Nuggets took the final two at each venue. This time around home court is protected in every game and you can’t go against a team that went 38-3 at home. San Antonio wins 4-3.

#3 Seattle (52-30) vs. #6 Sacramento (50-32)

This is where we find out how much experience really means. The Sonics overachieved this year and gripped badly down the stretch. The Kings seemed to sleep walk through the season, but have been here before. The first three in the season went to Seattle, but Sacramento had a 21 point win in the finale during the first week in April. I think this is a situation where Seattle will overlook the Kings and lose 4-2 after blowing the first game at home.

#4 Dallas (58-24) vs. #5 Houston (51-31)

These are two very good teams who could get hot in the playoffs. The winner of this series has a great chance to not only reach the conference finals but get to the NBA finals. The Rockets have that whole Yao/McGrady thing going on while the Mavs can score a ton of points from all different players. The first home and home of the series went to Dallas, but the Rockets blew them away in the rematches, the last of which was a 90-69 decision. If Houston can play defense like that, they’re going to win this series 4-2.

WEST SEMIFINALS

Phoenix vs. Houston

This is where the bubble bursts for the Suns. Yao has to break out and really show how much of an impact he can make in a series sooner or later and this is the point where I think he does it. Echo that for McGrady who really wants to strut his stuff, and he leads the Rockets to a 4-2 win.

San Antonio vs. Sacramento

This is a fortunate draw for the Spurs, who would have had a lot of trouble against either of their fellow Texas teams while Duncan heals up. I just don’t think the Kings have enough juice to stay with a team that has stayed at the top of the NBA for the past several seasons. The Spurs win this 4-2.

WEST FINALS

San Antonio vs. Houston

I really want to take the Rockets to win this, but I believe Duncan will be at full strength and that is bad news for a team that isn’t yet ready for primetime. I think they get overwhelmed and the Spurs win it 4-1.

NBA FINALS

San Antonio vs. Detroit

Here we go again with the teams that have combined to win 6 of the past 15 titles, three of the past six and of course the past two. This is probably the series everyone wants to see, and in the end I think the Spurs are simply too tough at home so they regain the title by a 4-3 count.