NCAA Football rankings: Norcalfella's top 30 week 7

Everyone worried about a BCS mess this season can forget it, at least when it comes to the title game. There are 7 teams without a loss, but USC/UCLA and Texas/Texas Tech meet, as would Georgia/Alabama if both run the SEC table. Those winners potentially join Virginia Tech meaning a maximum of 4 can finish without a loss. Now what do I think will actually happen? USC is running out, and Texas will too. Virginia Tech is the closest to throwing a wrench in this, but will have a tough enough time beating Boston College and Miami, FL on consecutive weeks and will have to deal with Florida State in the ACC title game.

Georgia may appear to have a better shot at crashing the party, but winning at Florida is tough, and they must deal with Auburn and a trip to rival Georgia Tech, not to mention beating the SEC West champ which probably will be LSU.

Texas should have lost to Ohio State, but the BCS will be grateful they didn't when there are two undefeated teams left at the end of the season. Can you imagine the mess if there were four or five teams with 1 loss vying for a spot against a lone undefeated team?

#1 (1) USC (6-0): Irish threw everything at them in their house and it didn't matter.
#2 (2) Texas (6-0): The scores are lopsided, but the victims are still weak.
#3 (4) Virginia Tech (6-0): Great week to be off as a few heavyweights looked bad.
#4 (5) Georgia (6-0): I heard an expert call Vanderbilt a quality opponent on the road. Funny.
#5 (7) UCLA (6-0): It might be destiny as they ralled from another double digit deficit to win.
#6 (6) Alabama (6-0): Terrible showing in Mississippi who would have beaten them with a kicker.
#7 (11) Texas Tech (6-0): Running up scores can't mask the fact that they are not very good.
#8 (13) Oregon (6-1): Quietly putting together a possible 10-1 season and BCS bid.
#9 (14) West Virginia (6-1): Great rally to beat Louisville in triple OT.
#10 (3) Florida State (5-1): Crushing blow to a team that could have competed for national title.
#11 (8) Miami, FL (5-1): Aside from Clemson win, they have allowed just 30 points in 5 games.
#12 (20) Boston College (6-1): Got caught looking ahead to Hokies in two weeks, but rallied past Wake.
#13 (18) LSU (4-1): They are rounding into shape and I won't be surprised if they win West.
#14 (22) Fresno State (4-1): Another win and you will see them slide up each week.
#15 (9) Penn State (6-1): It wasn't meant to be for JoePa, or any Big-10 team for BCS title game.
#16 (21) Ohio State (4-2): They really need a win and got it.
#17 (16) Michigan State (4-2): Couldn't get it done, but has time to recover with weak teams on deck.
#18 (17) Notre Dame (4-2): It took a lot of breaks for them to hang with USC.
#19 (NR) Georgia Tech (4-2): Chance at redemption going to Miami, FL this week.
#20 (24) Auburn (5-1): Sneaking into the picture. Trip to LSU is key to their season.
#21 (12) Florida (5-2): Vital loss in LSU and now firmly in the spoiler role against Georgia and FSU.
#22 (NR) Wisconsin (6-1): Wins don't get much luckier than that, but they will take it and run.
#23 (NR) Tennessee (3-2): Idle and probably will jump after beating hobbled Alabama this week.
#24 (25) Nebraska (5-1): Just win baby. I couldn't resist.
#25 (29) UTEP (4-1): Nice win for the young Palmer as they try to make a move.
#26 (30) TCU (6-1) They keep winning, but their schedule is very, very easy.
#27 (19) Colorado (4-2): Resounding loss to a better team and now hoping to beat lesser ones.
#28 (15) Minnesota (5-2): It was like a scene out of All the Right Moves out there. What a blunder.
#29 (NR) Virginia (4-2): Gigantic win over Florida State.
#30 (NR) Oregon State (4-2): Win at Cal has them feeling good.

Out of last week’s rankings and needing to play their way back in:
NR (19) California (5-2): Injuries on the offensive line and weak play from Ayoob doomed them.
NR (23) Connecticut (4-2): Crucial loss for a team trying to become bowl eligible.
NR (26) Louisville (4-2): They were a sham from the start.
NR (27) Kansas State (4-2): Blowout loss in Texas Tech has them out of the mix.
NR (28) Indiana (4-2): Crushed at Iowa and probably won't get to bowl eligible.

Worth watching for now:
Michigan (4-3): I said they were in teh spoiler role and they played it to perfection.
Iowa (5-2): With logjam in conference they could make a move by beating Michigan.
Toledo (5-1): Ball State is horrible, but as long as they win they will rise.
Arizona State (3-3): Off this week and will cause some poor team hell in the bowl.
Rutgers (4-2): Don't look now, but they might be heading for a bowl game.
Northwestern (4-2): Nice road win over Purdue and they need to repeat it at Michigan State.
Hovering at the edge of the radar:
Texas A&M (4-2): Dropping 62 on Oklahoma State returns them to the radar.
New Mexico (4-3): Nice win for them in Wyoming .
Wyoming (4-3) Another home loss and fading fast.
Washington State (3-3): Had UCLA on the ropes and just couldn't finish them off.
Baylor (4-2): Okay, they are dead again after losing to Nebraska.

Officially in oblivion

UAB (3-3): Loss to weak Marshall has them off the map.
Kansas (3-3): Even hobbled Oklahoma team still much better than they are.
South Florida (3-3): Loss in Pittsburgh might cost them a bowl game.
Oklahoma State (3-3): Trashed at Texas A&M and that's pretty much the end of them.
Purdue (2-4): These guys were ranked to start the season?
Vanderbilt (4-3): Reality is startin to set in for them.
Iowa State (3-3): Lights out after loss in Missouri.

NCAA Football rankings: Norcalfella's top 30 week 7 - 10/16/05 | 1 comments | Create New Account

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First BCS rankings released

Authored by: norcalfella on Monday, October 17 2005

No surprise that USC and Texas are 1-2. They will definitely remain that way unless either team loses a football game. Close wins won't be enough to slide them down.

#3 is Virginia Tech and they should be ready for heartbreak because Florida State (potential ACC title game opponent) suffering a loss has hurt their chances. In my gut I don't think they will hang a 0 anyway. It might even come in home games against currently ranked Boston College, Miami or a road trip to rival Virginia. At some point they will lose.

#4 is Georgia and with a strong computer average you can expect the human pollsters to start nudging them up. Wins over ranked Florida (road) and Auburn (home) would only help that upward swing and they probably need LSU to win out as their SEC title game opponent to pose a serious threat under the multiple undefeated teams scenario. Their prospects are actually better than you might think, but they need teams that they play to keep winning.

#5 Alabama is not going to run out. They showed this week that their star receiver being gone will kill them. Case closed.

#6 LSU is the highest rated team with 1 loss. That distinction last year should have belonged to Cal. Things are laid out pretty well for them actually if they can escape a home meeting with Auburn this week. The mixed up schedule has them blowing past two suckers (North Texas, Appalachian State) preceding their showdown at Alabama. Winning that game would create quite a boost for them. Naturally, getting to the title game would require running out while hoping that a few other teams lose.

#7 Texas Tech is a total joke. They are probably ranked properly because they have delivered victories, albeit over terrible teams. If they win at Texas they are an immediate contender. Of course, I'll also die of a heart attack from the shock. If they are able to keep it close, you can expect them to enter the BCS as a complete joke after facing Florida International, Sam Houston State and Indiana State to go along with their comical Big XII schedule. Hopefully Oklahoma will beat them on 11/19 to prevent this from happening.

#8 is Miami, FL and it is sometimes easy to overlook them. Losing early is better than late, that's how the system works. If they can manage a win at Virginia Tech and avenge their loss to FSU in the ACC title game they might be making a compelling case for a very high BCS finish. If a team or two ahead of them stumble, with the split against FSU in tow they might even finish ahead of an undefeated team.

#9 is UCLA and this is what you get when you play on the west coast. Their opponents are better than Texas Tech's yet they might not even be in position to get into the title game when they visit USC to end the season. I don't even want to think of the outcry should they beat the champs on their home field, finish undefeated and not be in the title game which they would essentially be hosting. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though because this team has allowed 40 and 41 points the past two weeks and probably will lose to Arizona State or even Oregon State to end their dream.

#10 is Penn State and they draw attention because they are the highest rated Big 10 team. Obviously they were stung by Michigan, but things still look good for them. The next two weeks (@Illinois, vs. Purdue) should be a breeze given their level of play so far. Then comes ranked Wisconsin and a trip to ranked Michigan State. Winning out would probably lock up a conference title because of the current 1 loss teams they have beaten two (Ohio State, Northwestern) and a third is part of that run (Wisconsin) while only Iowa poses a problem. Fat chance.

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that's my take

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