NFL Preview 2005
Gil Brandt of NFL.com gives his 60 second preview of the upcoming season. Below is mine in a little more detail. I will do this by division and at the end give another of my many preliminary playoff looks. AFC EAST: You have to start with New England, but all is not well in Camelot with the coordinators gone, a few defections and *gasp* a player holding out. Richard Seymour will be in the middle of their defensive line when it matters, but the point is that their wild and somewhat lucky run is going to come to a close this season. They keep trying to plug players in and sooner or later that isn't going to work. This year the hope is that Brady's former Wolverine target David Terrell can offset the loss of Patten (800 yards/7 TD) who was their most effective receiver overall last season. Givens needs to get consistent (9 of 17 games produced 42 yards or less) and Branch needs to get healthy (10 games missed in 3 seasons) for them to keep that passing game going. I still like the defense so they still make the playoffs.
NY Jets: Start spreading the news because the J-E-T-S are going to win the division. They had a problem at kicker so they drafted Nugent and followed it up with two or three other players who will see time as rookies this year, especially corner Justin Miller who was rated as first round talent but fell to them at #57. With the trade for tight end Jolley and re-acquisition of Coles the passing game should be in fine shape while Blaylock offsets the loss of Jordan should Martin falter running the ball. The biggest hurdle for them is their early season schedule. I would rate six of their first eight opponents as pretty good teams and the saving grace could be getting five at home and getting by a tough roadie (Kansas City) to start.
Buffalo: Honestly, I think they wish Losman had been able to get more action last year although with his injury situation it became a moot point. Now they are looking like the 2004 Bengals who have to go through some growing pains at the quarterback position. Their Hurricane offense (WR/RB/TE) suffered a blow when rookie Everett went down at tight end, a position where they really need a good player, but the receiving corps is bolstered by Parrish who should wake up Josh Reed to give them a nice foursome. If Losman plays even average football the offense should be fine. Everyone knows the defense can get the job done, but some of it last year was a bit of a product of the early season failures on offense. Teams got up and didn't really apply pressure to them. Late in the year they scored 29+ in 9 of their final 10 games and 22 in the other while finishing up 8-2 but will the offense keep that kind of rhythm going under Losman? I doubt it, and that will put the load on the defense and I don't think they are built to handle it.
Miami: With the huge distraction known as Ricky Williams, the real questions on this team surround their ability to find a winner at quarterback (Fiedler was a "don't lose it" guy) and whether or not Ronnie Brown can do like he did at Auburn and shine in spite of having another high profile back in the mix. The defense will get better with a little more offense (and some acquisitions they made) while the receivers are pretty good too believe it or not. They have a trio of guys in Boston, Chambers and Booker who have reached 963 yards or more in a season and a very good tight end in McMichael. This is a team that will hope to build a little confidence early (it won't be easy with Denver and the Jets to start) and then become a thorn in the side of better teams. Overall it is not going to be a surprise playoff run because the division has too much talent in place.
AFC NORTH: Since I'm going based on 2004 results it begins with Pittsburgh after their magical 15-1 run behind rookie Big Ben. Now Roethlisberger has more to work with in the passing game. Last year he had fewer passes per game than Vick and 27 quarterbacks threw more than he did, 13 of those played in 14 (as he did) or less games. The savvy moves of replacing the departed Burress with lanky rookie Gibson while signing Wilson just in case and drafting tight end Miller in the first round should pay off in spades. The concern I have is that their stable of running backs is great on paper, but Staley is not a workhorse and Bettis is on his last legs. If Willie Parker needs to be on the field they could be in trouble and for a team that lost one of their tackles it could be an issue. You have to like the defense and simply temper your expectations after what I term a relatively lucky 2004 season which is not going to be mirrored this year. The division is still soft, but there is a target on them from the opener this time around. We'll find out on September 25 when New England visits how good they are, but I'm expecting closer to 10 wins than a perfect record.
Baltimore: Few playoff teams improved their lot more than the Ravens since last year ended. I like what they did on the offensive line in the draft where they also picked up a pair of Sooners with a winning attitude in Clayton (WR) and Cody (DE) who fit nicely into their plans. Naturally the big story was getting Mason to finally be their #1 receiver and if Heap stays healthy it gives them reason to expect Boller to come around. As long as Jamal Lewis shows no ill effect of being in jail, their sputtering offense should be able to kick it up a notch. Defensively they are still very strong, especially in the secondary and of course in the middle with Ray Lewis. Other than a few tough games the schedule isn't all that daunting and really their only really tough road games are in Pittsburgh and Denver. That will certainly pave the way to a wild card at worst.
Cincinnati: Now that Carson Palmer has settled into the role of franchise quarterback they have gone about getting him more targets help on the line and a better defense in the draft which is exactly what he needed. The question is how much better they can be with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, established better teams, in their division. With little chance at a division title and only two wild cards I really can't see them in the mix. However, they have the deepest set of talented young receivers in the league, a solid running back and what looks like a pretty good quarterback. If Marvin Lewis can take players like this year's Georgia rookies Thurman (LB) and Pollack (DE) and mold them into anywhere close to the defense he had in Baltimore this squad could dominate during the latter portion of this decade. For now they are just a headache to opposing teams looking for an easy win.
AFC SOUTH: If the Colts don't break through against the Pats in the playoffs this year it will probably mark the start of their decline. Harrison drives their receiving corps and at 33 (when the season starts) this could be the last really productive season his tiny aging body can produce. Wayne is steady and Stokley overachieved last year while Clark seems to be an emerging talent at tight end scoring 5 times. Then again, the stat boy probably scored could have scored last year too with Manning at the helm. The concern of course is defense and they spent their first two picks trying to shore up the cornerback situation and the next hoping to get a player capable of drawing attention from stud end Dwight Freeney. I doubt that taking those guys among six defensive rookies will have that much positive effect this season though and they probably are best served simply trying to outscore teams. The good news is that James is around for what could be his last run and they have a few guys who can spell him to make sure he stays healthy when it counts. Jacksonville and Houston are up and coming teams but realistically neither is ready to pose a serious challenge to the Colts for the South title this season. This is really Manning's best shot at a title though and the next few could find him fishing for a wild card berth.
Jacksonville: Let's hold off on the Super Bowl parade for a team so uncertain about their running back situation that they are the only team still with interest in Travis Henry. Heck, they also have a project for a first round draft pick in the form of Matt Jones. Looking at it optimistically, the roster now has three young receivers including sixth round pick Chad Owens (second in the nation with 102 receptions and an NCAA best 17 touchdowns) and last year's first round bust Reggie Williams who some think will rebound. The hope is that one of those guys will step up and combined with timeless Jimmy Smith (now 36) give Leftwich something to work with. If Fred Taylor can't go, they could deal for Henry or hope that either Toefield and/or unheralded but talented rookie Alvin Pearman will get them by. Now for the realistic stuff. The offensive line did get better with Barnes who was projected to go much sooner than #52 while the defense is in very good shape for another solid season. I'm just not sure how many 17-13 games they can win with the question marks on an offense that scored just 16.3 points per game last year. Only the 49ers, Redskins and Bears scored less and they combined to go 13-35. Honestly, I think this is a team that takes a slight step back into third place before making their serious run in 2006 once they replace Fred Taylor and get serious at wide receiver.
Houston: The honeymoon period is probably over for the Texans who are expected to start producing like every other team at this point. Carr passed for the quietest 3,531 yards I can remember last year, probably because he had only 16 touchdowns and still has fewer in his career (34) than games started (44). The poor guy has also been a tackle dummy (3.18 sacks per start) yet the team didn't draft any help for his line other than Hodgdon who will be a backup center. Instead they take a running back at #73 and not to say that Morency won't provide nice insurance for Davis but word is they wish to lock up Domanick long term. Wouldn't that have been a good spot for something else then? They also waited too long for a receiver even though Mathis was a good value at #114. Houston needed a running mate for Andre Johnson or a bettter tight end. The fact of the matter is that offensively they can't score with Indianapolis by any stretch of the imagination. On defense they made a nice pickup with Travis Johnson but their unit overall doesn't compare with Jacksonville's. If you can't beat the teams in your division it will likely be another near .500 season for a club that needs to start making bold moves.
Tennessee: It was no surprise that they were busy on draft weekend taking 11 players and a lot of those guys will probably see a lot of action or possibly start. Wide receiver is a definite position of need and they will hope that Jones, Roby or Williams can slide into that #3 role behind Bennett and hopefully healthy Calico. This isn't a playoff contending team so I don't know that it matters whether it is gritty winner McNair or up and down Volek at quarterback. Next year they will probably be taking Leinart at #1 overall anyway. I like grabbing three tackles in the draft for a team that allowed 43 sacks last year, that will help them protect their future franchise quarterback. On defense they clearly lost more than they gained and Pac Man will go through a lot of growing pains starting at corner where Samari Rolle used to be. Chris Brown can't stay healthy enough to keep the defense off the field and that is probably this team's biggest problem. It is a definite rebuilding process for them, but if they are able to land Leinart and some of these receivers start developing they could be onto something with Norm Chow calling the plays in a few years.
AFC WEST: Someone made the comparison of the San Diego Chargers being a lot like the Chicago team just a few seasons ago that went 13-3 before completely falling off the map the following years. Sure, they went 12-4 but when the chips were down it was another classic Marty team that was unable to buckle down and flex their muscles. The offense really fired on all cylinders last year even with LT not at full strength and with injuries at receiver. Now they have their star rusher at 100% and will be looking forward to having Caldwell and McCardell from opening day at receiver. They also drafted an intriguing WR/TE hybrid in Vincent Jackson who might line up in two tight end sets with their stud Gates. Brees has the pressure of a franchise tag and potential long term deal looming to motivate him, not to mention Rivers in waiting so we'll see how that turns out. The defensive line was bolstered by two first round picks with instant impact potential and the offensive line got three late round picks for added depth and insurance. Clearly they overachieved last year, but just as clearly they improved since then. The real question is which outweighs the other and I tend to think the overachieving part does. Too many things went right for them in 2004 and that sort of luck is not typically repeated.
Denver: They are habitually just good enough to excite their fans before disappointing them. Then comes a mystifying draft where, a season after giving up stud rusher Portis for Bailey they trade out of the first round before taking three corners and a running back on day one. I suppose the logic is that if just one of those guys can play they are in good shape. Drafting Clarett is a long term savvy move because if he rushes for a big season in their system they can potentially deal him for a middle second round pick or possibly more. Another weird move was acquiring almost the entire Cleveland defensive line that was dead last in rushing yards per game and produced more sacks (32) than just four other teams in the NFL. Still, the running game is always good for them and if Plummer can quit averaging 1.5 turnovers per game as he has for his career they might be able to utilize a good set of receivers. That's a pipe dream and it might be a case of going to well too many times for them on the ground as well after dealing away their leading rusher again. Bell is untested, Dayne is a bust, Griffin is too small and Clarett is a project. I'm not saying they won't run well, just not enough to keep their playoff streak alive in this rugged division.
Kansas City: If you believe Dick Vermeil this year's Chiefs are better than the 13-3 version two seasons ago. Going on that premise they achieved that by improving their kicking game via the draft with punter Colquitt and their defense in the draft and free agency. Guys like linebackers Johnson and Bell with corners Surtain and Ambrose figure to bolster the back side of their porous defense, but how much? In my estimation, not enough. Offensively they find a way to get it done on the ground even if Holmes can't answer the bell and the loss of Blaylock doesn't change that because Larry Johnson filled in nicely too. My question mark for them is in the air this season because at some point their lack of decent wide receivers has to hurt them. Kennison had career highs in receptions (62) yards (1,086) average (17.5) and his most touchdowns (8) since his rookie year in 1996 but is 32 and hasn't exactly had a consistent run in the NFL. Morton took his 795 yards out the door leaving guys like kick returner Hall, Chris Horn and Samie Parker and their combined 545 yards to compete for a starting role. They are high on Parker and also drafted Thorpe out of Florida State but this is a team with a history of making poor selections at the position. Gonzalez can't do it all and at 35 Trent Green is about ready to start fading. This squad could have one more offensive run in them before they start becoming all about defense and running the football going forward. It wouldn't surprise me to see them finish anywhere from 6-10 to winning this division and it really hinges on how much the defensive additions impact their points allowed and what the passing game can do.
Oakland: The Silver and Black are poised to be this year's turnaround team in the NFL after a few flashy moves, some shrewd ones and some questionable ones. The flashy one is of course acquiring Randy Moss for the #7 pick in a weak draft and an underachieving former first round linebacker. Instantly their top three receivers stand up against any team in the NFL, not to mention last year's exhibition star Gabriel and second year players Francis and Morant. In a play that reminds me of when they signed Gannon they picked up Jordan to handle the rushing load. Like their MVP he doesn't have a full season under his belt but has shown plenty of ability to be the main guy. That leaves the onus on Collins to quit competing with Plummer for the turnover lead in the NFL. The bigger turnaround should be on defense where the secondary gained two speedsters in the draft (Washington and Routt) for nickel and dime situations. Woodson will be playing for a big money contract and Asomugha is counted on to make people forget about the traded away Buchanon. The safeties aren't great, but they are serviceable and the linebackers got quietly better with the drafting of Morrison and pickup of Foreman. If Sam Williams can step up they might really be onto something in the middle of their defense. Up front was the best change because last year Washington and Sapp proved too old and slow, especially in the 3-4. Now it will be back to the 4-3 and they quietly picked up Jasper from Atlanta while stealing troublesome Hawthorne on draft day. That leaves them suddenly deep at tackle where they can shuffle guys in by situation. At end they picked up Burgess and will hope to get more out of Brayton with the new alignment. Everything adds up to a much better team on both sides of the ball and a wild card run.
AFC PLAYOFF OUTLOOK: Something is stuck in my gut about the Jets winning the East and it would be insane to count New England out of the playoffs so they will grab the top wild card. The North is really a 50/50 proposition and going on instinct again I am taking Baltimore to break through. Obviously Indianapolis is the easy choice in the South. That leaves a fairly wide open West when you really think about it. I believe San Diego has just enough to repeat although with more like a 10-6 record or even 9-7. Pittsburgh, Denver, Oakland, Jacksonville, Buffalo and Kansas City could all be fighting for that second wild card. In the end I think Pittsburgh winds up getting it. That will leave the opening round with Pittsburgh opening up with a loss at Baltimore while New England "upsets" San Diego. With the Pats forced to visit the dome, this time they can't manage the Colts while the Jets take out Baltimore. In the title game Indy wins comfortably.
NFC EAST: I don't care what has happened since the Super Bowl, Philly is still a heavy favorite to win this division again. They added a lot of talent in the draft and eventually will figure out a way to keep Owens in the fold. With rookie Reggie Brown and emerging Greg Lewis also at receiver this is looking like a much more potent aerial attack. Moats was drafted to keep the running back stable deep and they might even get something out of Buckhalter this year. Defensively they will see immediate dividends out of Patterson at tackle and McCoy at linebacker as rookies. If any of their seven day two picks work out it's just gravy. This is a team that plays just two road games against teams with a winning record last year (Atlanta and Denver) and both are in the first half of the season. The home schedule is likewise easy with only three more winners (Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay). This is really a path towards a possible 16-0 and at worst they are the #1 seed.
Dallas: I can't remember a team attacking their defense and especially their front seven so much in the draft and free agency. To grab guys like Ware, Spears and Burnett in the same draft is incredible. Then throw in a guy like Ferguson at tackle and Henry at corner where the secondary figures to benefit from a much better pass rush. This defense was great in 2003 if you recall and some of the guys who made it that way are still around. Really the question becomes what Bledsoe can do for the passing game which sorely needs someone to make plays. Keyshawn is a great possession receiver and Witten broke out at tight end but unless Morgan gets going it could put a heavy load on the ground game. It might deliver with Julius Jones having looked great in the second half last year while they added Anthony Thomas and rookie Marion Barber. All signs point to a very competitive season for them and Bill Parcells will accept nothing less than a playoff push.
Washinton: Their moves puzzle me. It might be funny to field a set of Smurf receivers like back in the old days, but it won't be productive. The last thing they needed was another unproven quarterback, yet they gave up a ton in trade to get Jason Campbell. Left with just six draft picks they use two of them on fullbacks. Is this what a team does that had a pretty much dominant defense last year? I just don't get it. They probably will be very good defensively again, and the offensive line is going to be much better with Jansen back and Rabach at center that's for sure. If Portis can start exploding through holes and whoever they put at quarterback starts pulling a Trent Dilfer circa 2001 this team might stumble onto something. I'm not sold on that happening and more likely they are taking a sidestep with another mediocre campaign and just trying to tread water in a halfway decent, improving division.
NY Giants: They definitely paid the price for going after Eli Manning so they knew they were in for a slow rise back to the top. It was probably smart timing because of where the Eagles are right now. As it sits for them they got a second solid #2 receiver in Burress who coupled with Toomer should keep defenses guessing at the very least. If Shockey can keep his butt on the field and out of trouble Eli will have a decent year. Barber will get help with his failed third and short situations in the form of rookie Brandon Jacobs. On defense they actually got lucky drafting Webster (CB) and Tuck (DE) because both were rated a little higher than where they selected them. In the final analysis, unlike last year when they stumbled into some wins I think the other teams in the division will be improved enough to plant them firmly in the cellar this time around.
NFC North: The window for Green Bay is closing very quickly and Favre is not going to be able to leave the game on a winning team in all likelihood. Their big issue is a porous defense, especially in the secondary and adding four rookies to that group isn't going to help them this season. Neither is taking Aaron Rodgers although he has to be the best quarterback taken in the last third of the first round for quite some time. Assuming Franks and Walker figure out their contract situations, the addition of rookies Murphy and Bragg give them a lot of flexibility in the passing game while they have a nice stable of running backs as well. Losing both starting guards doesn't help though and the division is certainly improving a lot more than they are. Quite honestly I could see them dipping as low as double digit losses and third place. I don't think Favre will let that happen and he probably wills them to at least an 8-8 mark, but not a playoff spot.
Minnesota: It is one thing to say that the team traded Randy Moss for Troy Williamson and linebacker Napoleon Harris but that isn't the whole story. The deal allowed them the cash to really improve their defense, which they did at every position. Rookie James joins last year's first rounder Udeze at end with Pat joining Kevin as a Williams duo inside, comprising what should be a very good line. In addition to Harris they added veteran Cowart and also Newman at linebacker. Their secondary was bolstered by Smoot and Sharper. Offensively they took a hit losing not only Moss but capable and similarly troubled rusher Onterrio Smith. They will rely on four runners to split the load with the explosive but often injured Bennett, reliable veteran Williams, flashy Moore who ran well in limited time last year and rookie Fason. At receiver they lost their start and traded it in for a deeper group. Williamson replaces the speed while Robinson and newcomer Taylor provide veteran presence. Burleson is really the anchor of the group and tight end Wiggins really came onto the scene last year. In total, they may lose a few points on offense but they will gain more than a few on defense. In a division with a great opportunity to take over I see them doing exactly that. It would not surprise me if they went 5-1 or swept their North games en route to the title.
Detroit: All the buzz on draft day was Mike Williams going to them at #10. That will go down as one of the great steals in draft history and a great move. I still remember people wondering why Minnesota took Randy Moss when they had Jake Reed and Cris Carter. Now the Lions can line up the Williams duo and if they get anything out of Rogers or perennial underachiever Kevin Johnson (a free agent addition) it is gravy. They added solid pass receiving tight end Pollard just for good measure and already have last year's second half wonder Kevin Jones at running back. With the surrounding talent they had to have insurance at quarterback should Harrington not progress so they got Garcia and drafted a real sleeper in Orlovsky. Someone will keep this offense going. The thing that will keep them out of the playoffs is their defenes because their offense isn't quite good enough to outscore most teams. I like the fact that their team speed will be accentuated in 10 dome games and an eleventh on the turf in Dallas but all the pieces aren't there just yet for a playoff spot.
Chicago: I really liked what they were doing defensively until the draft rolled around and they took a quarterback, running back and two receivers first, waiting until the #181 overall to take a defender. I really thought a guy like Rolle would have helped them more than Benson when they already have Thomas Jones. As it is, now they are hoping they have thrown enough darts at the wall to land an offense for the present and future. With Grossman, Hutchinson and Orton they have three young guys who could pan out. Muhammad gives them a solid veteran to help the young receivers along while Benson and Jones can battle it out for the job of lead rusher. They still don't have a good tight end and the defense while clearly looking up given a full season (if they stay healthy) from Ogunleye, Brown and Urlacher isn't enough to carry them. Hey, if you stuck their defense on the field with Detroit's offense you'd have a winner. As it sits now they might have taken a step back and will be clearly the last place team in this division.
NFC South: The Atlanta Falcons seemed to just slide along last year in a soft division that has been won by three different teams the past three seasons. Ironically it has been the season series in each case that determined the division winner with Tampa Bay sweeping Atlanta in 2002, Carolina sweeping Tampa Bay in 2003 and last year Atlanta sweeping Tampa Bay. Reverse those sweeps and the opposite team wins it. A 7-1 home mark carried them and this time around they need to get past a tough early half of the schedule. The good news is that rookie Roddy White and/or second year man Michael Jenkins might finally give them a threat at receiver or at the very least allow Price to start making a play or two. Dunn and Duckett form a powerful running punch while Vick seems to be getting comfortable with his style. The defense played very well last year and with four rookies added for depth and possible impact the prognosis there is good. In an unpredictable division the safe money is on them.
New Orleans: Many bets have been won and lost on them that's for sure. They could rout a contender one week and give a team their first win in the next. Offensively it is tough to argue that they will be strong yet again. Adding Hakim in his proper role at a #3 or #4 really made sense for them and the hope is that either Henderson or Stallworth will start to make bigger strides to take pressure off Horn. McAllister has Antowain Smith, a savvy pickup, to take a few carries and keep him fresh and the line added rookie Jammal Brown in the first round. The addition of McPherson at quarterback sends a direct message to Brooks that he better knock off the turnovers. Defensively there are still way too many holes other than having a great pass rush which tends to make some of the deficiencies less important. I do believe they can contend for a wild card or even the division if they can stay disciplined, but obviously Haslett isn't the guy to get that done.
Carolina: Their hot finish seems to bode well for them to return closer to their Super Bowl season two years ago. Steve Smith's return lessens the blow of Muhammad leaving and rookie Eric Shelton figures to provide a measure of insurance for their banged up runners. They drafted three rookie linemen and have a playmaking quarterback in Delhomme so the offense is in decent if not spectacular shape. It's on defense whre they figure to be making strides with potential impact guys like Thomas Davis at safety and maybe even Ellison at tackle among five rookie defenders. They also get Jenkins back from injury and already have Peppers as a star at end. I see them as a consistent, capable team that doesn't quite have enough to get over the hump at this point. As I'll mention quite a few times you need to improve a lot just to keep up and I don't believe they have done enough to really be considered serious contenders even in a weak division and conference.
Tampa Bay: As a Raiders fan I have enjoyed the fall of the Bucs, but I have to say that the turnaround is coming very soon. Gruden knows how to run an offense and finally he has some weapons to use starting with rookie runner Cadillac Williams. He's also got Pittman and even Garner if he has anything left to chip in should the young man not be ready to go it alone. At receiver Clayton played really well as a rookie and they picked up a solid veteran in Hilliard to keep the group deep and especially since Galloway is fragile. The best move was throwing three darts on draft day with Brackins, Warren and Russell and I will say at least one of them makes an impact of some sort this year. Then they got a great rookie tight end in Alex Smith and a fullback because Alstott is nearing the end. Just for good measure they drafted two offensive linemen among their 12 picks. On defense they are a little bit in decline but rookies like Ruud and Nicholson will fit in nicely and they still have a lot of good players. Overall they will not be kicked around this year and be an easy win for any team on their last place schedule. Having to play three out of four on the road late really doesn't help though and that is followed by division heavies Atlanta and New Orleans. In other words don't book playoff tickets although 2006 looks promising.
NFC West: A fairly wide open division is defended by Seattle although had Arizona been able to handle otherwise winless San Francisco twice they would have been in the mix to the end. Much is up in the air for the Seahawks who have no choice but to lock up Alexander or deal him for another franchise caliber runner. They have Hasselbeck secured but replaced Koren Robinson (who at least had upside) with rejects Pathon and Jurevicius. Jackson is an overachiever and without help is going to falter while Engram is a low end possesion man. At tight end the situation is slightly better with veteran Mili, rookie Tony Jackson and so far disappointing Stevens. The offensive line is the only improvement (slight one at that) with three rookies coming in to help out. That leaves a defense that was beaten badly last year and decimated at linebacker. That situation improved with the acquisition of Sharper and drafting of two rookies inside the first 100 picks. Another former Ram comes in to play the opposite end position while Dyson looks to solidify their weak set of corners. Overall this is a team that was better than they played last year and didn't do enough to get past that struggling above sea water mentality in 2005.
St. Louis: Their opponents have probably long feared them having a running game or defense to play with their awesome passing offense. It might happen this year after they moved Steven Jackson into the starting lineup, drafted Barron to booked with Pace and picked up a guard and blocking tight end later in the draft. They also managed to fortify the secondary with three guys in the top 120. We know they can throw the ball and Faulk is going to be a dangerous weapon in his new reduced role. If the defense can slow anyone down and the atrocious turnover deficit reverses itself they could be in business. Certainly they stand out as the best team on paper in the division or at least the most tested. I feel like Bulger will make better decisions given the improved running game which is bound to put him in more manageable situations. That alone will push them to the division crown.
Arizona: Let's stop the bus on the Cardinals to win the division prediction right now. Warner is not a savior and isn't even a sure thing to stay on the field. If he doesn't there is no one decent waiting in the wings to engineer an offense with three great receivers and a new stud running back in Arrington who should contend for rookie of the year. They had way too many holes to fill in the draft and did manage to pick up two corners who will see plenty of playing time this season. The offense line isn't bad but I can't get over the fact that they were the only team unable to get by San Francisco last year, even though they had them in great position to do so. They are going to win their share of games and probably give everyone in their division trouble, but it will be another season or two before they really get it going.
San Francisco: It burns me to admit this but they did a pretty good job in free agency in the draft. It helped to be sitting on the top pick although that might have been their lone mistake. I don't think Smith was the best player in this draft and he wasn't their biggest need either. That is unless he catches his own passes. The receivers are in very bad shape unless you consider Lloyd and Morton capable starters and I don't. They are counting on Battle or Woods (last year's first round pick) to start producing which would help their situation immensely. Eric Johnson will again be a big factor as a pass catchig tight end and they drafted two big guys very late in the draft hoping one will help block. Speaking of blocking they will benefit greatly from rookie guards Baas (who could play center if Newberry isn't right) and Snyder while acquiring Jennings at tackle. That coupled with the addition of Gore (who I see as a Hearst clone) will bring Barlow back to his old self. The bigger issue is that their defense got shredded and didn't get much attention. They have a lot of young players who are going through growing pains and injuries really hurt them last year. Simply staying healthy will be a big boost, but the personnel isn't improved. I see them as being far inferior to their division mates and in serious contention for a top five draft pick.
NFC PLAYOFF OUTLOOK: If Philadelphia isn't the #1 seed it would be a major upset. I really believe Minnesota plays well enough to secure the other bye, nosing out Atlanta. St. Louis limps in as the other division winner. For the wild cards I think you will see Dallas, Green Bay, Detroit, New Orleans, Carolina and Seattle be the teams to look for and I will take Dallas first and (gasp) New Orleans second. That will leave the Falcons dusting off the Saints and Cowoybs upsetting the Rams in the opening weekend. Philadelphia will rout Dallas while Minnesota I believe has enough to get by Atlanta this time around. In the title game it is really a tough call, but going with experience you can't go against the Eagles.
SUPER BOWL PICK: It was a good pick (same teams) last year and a good one again. Philadelphia gets by Indianapolis in an instant classic.
Subtlety is not one of my strengths