The "What If" Bowl kicks off week 1. New Orleans @ Indianapolis: pick NO +6/under 53 The Saints have a huge advantage getting this game early. The Colts lost several pieces to their defense and are young in the secondary. Having to face an offense throwing last year's stud rookie Colston, veteran Patten and first round rookie Meachem not to mention guys like Henderson and Copper should have them reeling. Then there's the stable of running backs with Bush, McAllister and rookie Pittman just for good measure. Even with Peyton at the helm I find it hard to see them matching touchdowns against this team. Even worse, losing Rhodes puts a ton of pressure on Addai to carry the ground attack. Gonzalez might be a star in the slot when he gets a few games under his belt, but until then this is a two receiver offense facing a Saint defense that bolstered their secondary in the offseason. After a few early throws back and forth I expect both teams to settle in. New Orleans will control the pace by running the ball, a task made easier by defensive tackle McFarland's absence. Eventually they will record a nice win. New Orleans 27, Indianapolis 23

Denver @ Buffalo: pick DEN -3/under 37

Both teams will be breaking in new lead running backs in a game that figures to feature plenty of action on the ground. The Broncos plucked Travis Henry from Tennessee, but he was originally drafted by these Bills only to be replaced by Willis McGahee. Buffalo dispatched him as well, and drafted Cal’s Marshawn Lynch to fill the void. Having a solid veteran bent on revenge is a big advantage going up against a team banking on a rookie. Last year Denver was #8/#12 in run offense/defense. Buffalo was #27/#28. In other words the visitors should dictate the pace of this game. If slowly improving quarterback J.P. Losman tries to bring the Bills back through the air he faces a dynamic pair of corners in Bly and Bailey. This is a pretty easy game to call: Denver 23, Buffalo 13

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland: pick PIT -4.5/under 36.5

The rivalry hasn’t rekindled much since the Browns rejoined the league in 1999 because quite frankly they have stunk. It might change if rookie quarterback Brady Quinn turns out to be the real deal. Until then it is Charlie Frye leading last year’s worst offense outside of totally inept Oakland. Jamal Lewis might or might not have a little left in the tank at running back. Edwards and Winslow are great threats in the passing game if they can stay healthy. On the other side we know what we will get from Pittsburgh. They can bring it on defense and successfully run the ball. After a disappointing 8-8 season many believe they can rebound to their Super Bowl XL level. I won’t go that far, but if Roethlisberger starts spreading the ball around this is a dangerous team. Last year they finished #7 in yards gained and #10 in yards allowed yet were plagued by mistakes including 25 turnovers by Big Ben and 5 fumbles lost by Willie Parker. No mistakes here, just a comfortable win: Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 10

Philadelphia @ Green Bay: pick PHI -3/under 42.5

If this is Brett Favre’s final run it appears the team finally added some help for him to make it. Brandon Jackson looks good at running back while James Jones gives them a third threat at wide receiver. A defense that was already decent against the run last year (#13) adds a first rounder in Justin Harrell at defensive tackle to play ahead of a great set of young linebackers. The Eagles are led by McNabb who is trying to regain his health and status as one of the NFL’s best. He says he isn’t 100% and seemed stirred when the team drafted Kevin Kolb. He also lost Donte’ Stallworth in free agency leaving Reggie Brown as the only wide receiver returning with over 24 receptions or 500 yards. Can he work his old magic by scattering passes to multiple receivers while Westbrook wreaks havoc? Maybe when he’s healthy, but until then it will be a struggle. I am tempted to take the Packers in an upset. Instead I believe Westbrook is ready to control the action: Philadelphia 23, Green Bay 19

Kansas City @ Houston: pick HOU -3/under 37.5

We are used to seeing the Chiefs dominate on offense. It will not happen this year, especially early on. Larry Johnson’s holdout puts him behind. Damon Huard is banged up and only held the starting quarterback gig because Croyle was a mess in the exhibitions. The offensive line has been slowly losing their stalwarts as well. They lost a lot of momentum getting smoked by the Colts in the playoffs 23-8. On the other hand Houston has reason for optimism. They finally have their franchise quarterback in Matt Schaub, or so they hope, and brought in stability at running back with Ahman Green. Andre Johnson is a one man show at receiver, but it’s a pretty good one man. The defensive line picked up a very young rookie with Amobi Okoye and while they aren’t ready to dominate yet it could be a great group for years to come. Schaub won’t be as accurate as Carr was last year. Instead he will get the ball down the field, starting this week against a mediocre defense: Houston 20, Kansas City 16

Tennessee @ Jacksonville: pick JAX -6.5/under 38

The Jaguars were totally undone by the Titans last year. It is a big advantage to get them in Florida right off the bat. Garrard gives them a shot in the arm at quarterback and possibly a little swagger as well. If their defense wasn’t intimidating enough they added a safety off the national championship team Florida (Reggie Nelson) and a linebacker (Justin Durant) in the second round who adds depth to last year’s #2 defense in total yards. Their running game should be in high gear as well. Taylor only had to carry the ball 231 times last year thanks to stud rookie Jones-Drew’s 166. Those figures will be reversed this season. They combined for an amazing 2,077 yards rushing with 18 touchdowns and 5.27 yards per rush. How did this team miss the playoffs again? This is going to be ugly. Vince Young will be missing Henry and Bennett badly. That pair represented 55% of their rushing yards and 28% of their passing yards. A lot of rookies are counted on to fill holes and that just doesn’t work early in the season. I expect the Jags to flex their muscles early and often in a rout: Jacksonville 31, Tennessee 6

Atlanta @ Minnesota: pick MIN -3/over 35.5

Joey Harrington will have a spotlight on him as he starts the post-Vick era for the Falcons. Under new head coach Bobby Petrino the team is assured of improving on last year’s league worst passing game at the expense of the league best running game. Most of those ground yards came from the scrambling Vick’s NFL quarterback record 1,039 yards. Now they have to play it straight up with a still ailing Dunn against the #1 run defense from a season ago that hasn’t lost a step. This one is going to be on Harrington’s shoulders if Atlanta is going to score points. Fortunately the Vikings could struggle offensively as well. Tarvaris Jackson has been handed the keys at quarterback, but they don’t return anyone who caught 50+ passes or had 500+ yards a year ago including running backs and tight ends. Their top threat Travis Taylor left for Oakland, and top touchdown man Marcus Robinson (4) is gone to Detroit. They had 7 of the team’s 13 TD receptions. They brought in a couple rookies, a Green Bay castoff (Robert Ferguson) and are waiting for Troy Williamson to live up to his #8 overall status. Guess what? It hardly matters. They will run Chester Taylor and stud rookie Adrian Peterson right at Atlanta until they wear down. The Vikings are not a good team, but they will look like it in this game: Minnesota 26, Atlanta 13

New England @ NY Jets: pick NYJ +6.5/under 41

I have been thinking the Pats were lucky to get this one early, but now it appears to be a bad break. Seymour (hurt) and Harrison (suspended) will be missing from their defense, putting a lot of pressure on a group of linebackers who are quite honestly aging. Adalius Thomas is a nice addition who will pick up some slack, but this is his first start for them. This scheme takes time to master. Just ask Roosevelt Colvin. The Jets will attack the Patriots with a lead running back (Thomas Jones) which they didn’t have last year. That will take a lot of the pressure off Pennington. Offensively for New England I have to believe Dillon is going to be missed running the ball. Maroney is a nice feature back, but he had exactly zero games with 20+ carries as a rookie and just once went over 90 yards. He was their big play threat and because Dillon took a lot of hits he was able to be fresh for those long runs. Their new receivers look great on paper. How long will it take for Brady to develop a rapport with them? Is Randy Moss even going to play? New York has home field and a chip on their shoulder. They want to prove the playoff loss (37-16) is in their rear view mirror. It won’t be easy, but I think they can do it: NY Jets 21, New England 19

Carolina @ St. Louis: pick STL -1/over 42.5

These are two dangerous teams who never seem to play up to their potential. The Panthers made a savvy move adding quarterback David Carr because it quietly tells Jake Delhomme that his mediocre play over the past two seasons is not enough to hold his job. Their other big splash came in the draft where they added a linebacker (Jon Beason) to back up the oft-injured Dan Morgan, a potential threat opposite Steve Smith at receiver (Dwayne Jarrett) and the draft’s best center (Ryan Kalil). These are all great moves for their depth. I expect their passing game to improve greatly as Keary Colbert seems to have woken up enough to replace the retired Keyshawn Johnson. Rookie running back DeAngelo Williams was pretty ordinary (501 yards, 4.1 average) but should form a nice duo with DeShaun Foster this season. Defensively they can still perform at a high level and will need to right out of the gate against the Rams. St. Louis was #6 in yards gained last year yet they were very active in improving their offense. Brian Leonard was drafted to ease the work load of Steven Jackson who touched the ball an insane 436 times last year. He will play fullback and running back while also doing damage catching passes and in short yardage. Randy McMichael gives them a veteran tight end threat after last year’s rookies Klopfenstein and Byrd failed to make a big splash. Slot receiver Drew Bennett was added to replace Kevin Curtis, and that is another upgrade. Bulger passed for 4,301 yards and 24 touchdowns before these additions, committing just 11 turnovers. Can you imagine what he can do with this crew? The only thing he can’t do is play defense. They can’t stop a soul. The defensive line gets a boost with rookie Adam Carriker, but they are susceptible to the run big time. This is shaping up to be an exciting shootout in the dome where defenses are at a disadvantage. I have to take the more experience offense featuring Holt, Bruce and Jackson: St. Louis 31, Carolina 27

Miami @ Washington: pick MIA +3/under 34

Neither of these teams will be thinking about their glory days right now. Twice they have met in the Super Bowl, the second of which began a three year stretch when one or both of them participated from 1983-1985. These days either would settle for a wild card as they stare up at two division mates each who made last year’s playoffs. Miami has renewed hope with a new quarterback, but Trent Green is 37 years old. The other problem with counting on him to lead a revival is that last year’s trio of quarterbacks combined for 3,577 yards passing and 16 touchdowns. He might improve on the scoring throws, but he can’t do much better in the yardage department. They need Ronnie Brown to start running the ball like a man drafted #2 overall and 4.2 yards per rush isn’t cutting it. The opener gives him a nice opportunity because the Redskins struggled last year on defense. They will be a lot better in 2007, but Florida is a nasty place to play in September. Miami’s defense will be ready to roll and is bolstered by the addition of Joey Porter at linebacker. Washington has a great pair of running backs, but other than Santana Moss not much in the passing game. I’m also not convinced Jason Campbell can really take over a game at quarterback either. In 7 games last year the team went 2-5 and he never passed for over 220 yards. I expect a defensive battle between two teams who won’t be anywhere by week six: Miami 17, Washington 12

Detroit @ Oakland: pick OAK -1.5/under 39

It is a little silly for the Raiders to be coy about who is starting at quarterback. The man is Josh McCown and the reasons are simple. He has more work in with the team than Daunte Culpepper, didn’t have the fumbling problems in exhibition games and most importantly practiced against the Lions all last year. Sooner than later Culpepper will get his shot, but for now the Raiders will rely on their defense and renewed commitment to the running game. Offensive coordinator Greg Knapp and line coach Tom Cable were brought in from Atlanta in addition to a bevy of new personnel for last year’s #31 ranked run offense. Detroit had one of the league’s worst defenses (#28) and a one dimensional offense led by Kitna’s 4,208 yards passing. That probably won’t cut it against the Raider defense. They have athletic corners that can deal with stud Roy Williams, star rookie Roy Williams and pass catching monster Mike Furrey. Asomugha had 8 interceptions last year and is licking his chops watching film of the turnover prone Kitna. I expect Oakland to be up for this game and begin a surprising season, relatively speaking. Likewise Detroit immediately turns in the other direction after some high expectations by a few prognosticators: Oakland 20, Detroit 10

Chicago @ San Diego: pick SD -5.5/under 42

If the league opener was a “what if” Super Bowl then this is as well even if the Chargers didn’t reach the championship game. They did go 14-2 and return all the personnel. What they don’t get back is basically their entire coaching staff. There has to be an adjustment period, but facing a top flight defense coming off an NFC title is probably not the best draw in week 1. Then again, Chicago loses their leading rusher and has to face an equally tough defense on the road. I am not on the Cedric Benson bandwagon. The Bears apparently felt it was time for their #4 overall pick to be the main man. In the regular season he never carried the ball more than 16 times in a game and not until the final week (109 garbage yards in a 26-7 loss to Green Bay) did he gain more than 64 yards. His playoff stats were terrible with 38 carries for 104 yards (2.7 average) and 1 touchdown. Even including the playoffs he caught just 11 passes. If they can’t establish the run, and I don’t expect them to, it will be up to Rex Grossman. He’s about as inconsistent as they come, having turned it over 30 times in 19 starts last year. Once San Diego gets their second turnover this game is finished. Norv Turner finally has the weapons to execute his offense again and Chicago has no answer on the road: San Diego 27, Chicago 14

Tampa Bay @ Seattle: pick SEA -6/over 41

The Seahawks extended the curse of NFC Super Bowl losers to three teams by struggling last year. The Bucs are the last NFC team to win the big game and have not been the same since even though they did make the playoffs once. Seattle seems equipped to forget 2006 now that Hasselbeck and Alexander are healthy. One thing they want to do is dominate again at home like they did in their title run when they went 8-0. Neither of these teams stood out on offense or defense last year. While Seattle got healthy, Tampa Bay got veteran help at quarterback with Jeff Garcia who is hot off a 5-1 starting record leading Philadelphia to the playoffs. Last year three players combined for 2,994 passing yards and 14 touchdowns against 25 turnovers. Obviously that won’t get it done and probably explains why coach Gruden is still stalking retired (or is he?) Jake Plummer. Like his college teammate Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams is running more like a Pinto than a Cadillac. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry and went over 100 yards just twice in 14 games. Nine of those games he failed to top even 50 yards rushing. The Seahawks added a pair of rookies to bolster their defensive line and more notably a marquee free agent in Patrick Kerney. This defense is ready to regain their swagger, especially at home. I think Garcia is in for a long day and if he thought the receiving threats were scarce with the Eagles these guys will make him yearn to be back in Philly: Seattle 28, Tampa Bay 16

NY Giants @ Dallas: pick DAL -5.5/under 44

The league is carting this out for Sunday Night Football as if it is still a rivalry. To be one there has to be two competitive teams. New York is ready to disintegrate this year. Tiki Barber takes 77% of their rushing yards and 19% of their completed passes into the NBC booth. They are leaning on rookie Steve Smith to help snap Eli Manning out of the doldrums following his pedestrian 3,244 yards passing last year and second straight season with a QB rating in the 70’s. Defensively they are vulnerable as well, a situation made worse by Strahan’s holdout. Aaron Ross was drafted out of Texas to help a pass defense ranked #28 in 2006. Owens, Glenn and Witten should see plenty of openings. Romo opens this season as the clear starting quarterback after lighting it up in 12 starts last year including the playoffs. His numbers from those games would project out to 4,076 passing yards and 27 touchdowns for a full season. Mix in two running backs who combined for 1,738 yards rushing and 18 scores and the Giants have to be sweating. Last year’s primetime opener saw Eli losing to his older brother in a competitive game 26-21. This season he will be treated like a red headed stepchild: Dallas 30, NY Giants 13

Baltimore @ Cincinnati: pick BAL +2.5/under 40.5

The last two champions of the AFC Central open the season under the lights with both trying to get a leg up on this year’s title. With their top ranked defense mostly intact, the Ravens attacked offense after being held without a touchdown in a playoff loss to Indianapolis. Two guards were drafted to bolster the line along with a slot receiver/punt return specialist. They also traded for running back Willis McGahee who gives them more athleticism than the departed Jamal Lewis. Conversely, the Bengals really did nothing to improve their already solid offense. Rookie running back Kenny Irons suffered a season ending injury, giving them no impact additions via the draft. With receiver Chris Henry suspended a lot of pressure is on their starting two receivers and lead rusher Rudi Johnson. All of them are top shelf, but against a good defense it is certainly easier to neutralize them without a lot of changing personnel or formations to deal with. Early in the season the defense is typically ahead of the offense. I expect this game to be no different. McNair was unspectacular yet steady for the Ravens last year. Now he has a running back able to make some plays for him. I think McGahee has a nice day to key this victory: Baltimore 21, Cincinnati 19

Arizona @ San Francisco: pick SF -3/over 45

The NFC West is clearly the division where you can make a case for any of the teams to win it. Last year the champion would have been the 49ers had they not been swept by these Cardinals in two close ones, 34-27 in the opener and 26-20 in the penultimate game of the season. If San Francisco wants to get off on the right foot Alex Smith will have to play like he did in September. After averaging 271 yards passing in three games he finished with just 160 over his final thirteen. This season everyone is going to pay attention to Frank Gore in the backfield thanks to his breakout year with 1,695 yards rushing. They lost 74 receptions and 1,025 yards (5 touchdowns) with the departures of Antonio Bryant and tight end Eric Johnson. The hope is that last year’s rookie Vernon Davis emerges as a star while additions Ashley Lelie, Darrell Jackson and rookie Jason Hill make an impact. I think these guys eventually take their passing game to the middle of the pack, up from last year’s dreadful ranking (#29). Defensively the 49ers are young and athletic. They added linebacker Banta-Cain (New England) cornerback Clements (Buffalo) and safety Michael Lewis (Philadelphia) to give them veteran help. They also drafted linebacker Patrick Willis in the first round and added two defensive linemen in the opening 105 picks. It will take a strong effort against a capable Arizona offense led by Leinart in his first full year at starting quarterback. He combined with Warner to pass for 3,924 yards last year, but the pair had only 17 touchdowns passes against 22 turnovers. Leinart did not play in their first meeting and was knocked out of the second game. Because the Cardinals struggled running the ball even with the addition of Edgerrin James it could be up to Leinart if Arizona wants to beat San Francisco again. I think the 49ers are due, and I always like them at home. Gore might be fresh after missing the preseason, or he might be rusty. I am counting on fresh: San Francisco 27 Arizona 23