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Tuesday, February 20 2018

NFL Predictions 2006: Week 14

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Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (5-7): pick PIT -7/over 34.5

This game has yet to have any meaning since the Browns were reinvented in 1999 and now only those with the NFL Network will be forced to suffer through this one. The Steelers threw away their season in a shootout at Atlanta and throwaway in Oakland weeks ago. Instead of being at 7-5 with everyone wondering if they are ready to make another run as they did in 2005 now it is an atmosphere of playing out the string. The Browns now join a list of 15 teams who have had to start a different quarterback. The injury to Frye could be a blessing in disguise. His play has been poor most of the season, and Derek Anderson passed Cleveland to an overtime win past playoff contending Kansas City. Now he has to do it against a defense preparing for him all week and one more than capable of shutting down their running game. Last week Droughns had a respectable 70 yards and another 48 receiving for his first solid game in six outings. On the other side Willie Parker hasn’t exactly been lighting it up of late. His past two games have produced a grand total of 123 yards rushing and receiving on 35 touches without a touchdown. The prior game was the first meeting with Cleveland which produced 20 touches for 63 yards and the dramatic touchdown reception on a shovel pass. Since his horrendous start to the season Big Ben is actually getting the football down the field. He still makes too many mistakes, but in five of his last nine games he has multiple touchdown throws. Last week’s 198 yard effort when he didn’t need to throw (20-3 win) was the first time he had thrown for fewer than 214 yards since week 3. Pride kicks in for the Steelers. They are at home and definitely don’t want to be in last place.

Pittsburgh 23, Cleveland 15

Atlanta (6-6) @ Tampa Bay (3-9): pick ATL -3/under 38

With the defending NFC South champs firmly out of the race, they slip into the role of spoiler against the team that won the division in 2004. Both teams have been marred by inconsistency in a division that flips upside down on an annual basis. The first meeting back in week 2 produced a decisive 14-3 win for the Falcons who were looking solid at the time, especially on defense. That group seemed to go by the wayside after the bye week, allowing 27.7 points per game over the next seven and a 2-5 record to go along with it. The remedy is Tampa Bay's offense. After teams got a little bit of film on rookie Brad Gradkowski at quarterback they have seen their scoring output dwindle to 10.0 points per game over the last six games, five of them losses. Defensively teams have been able to handle this aging group of veterans, and Atlanta figures to run right at them. The question is whether or not Vick and the Falcons erased all thoughts of their ugly four game losing streak by winning at Washington last week, or if they will lapse again. Neither of these teams has won a game since Halloween other than beating the Redskins, but the Bucs always pull out all the stops at home. I do think better teams find a way to stay in contention on the road late in the season, and while I'm not ready to call Atlanta a playoff team at least they hang on one more week. Visits from Dallas and Carolina the next two weeks will determine their fate.

Atlanta 17, Tampa Bay 13

Baltimore (9-3) @ Kansas City (7-5): pick KC -3/under 36.5

The Chiefs got caught napping last week in Cleveland by a quarterback coming off the bench. Now instead of holding onto slim hopes of winning the AFC West they are mired in a tough battle for one of two wild card spots. The Ravens also lost in Ohio last week, but their plight is far less perilous. Cincinnati's 13-7 win kept the division title in doubt although clearly Baltimore is heading to the playoffs one way or another. Even though the old Cleveland Browns came into this stadium for many historic games this will be the first visit for their reincarnation. It is certain to be a battle of wills. Baltimore will want to grind down the clock and win the game in the fourth quarter. Kansas City hopes to strike early and dictate the tempo. The Chiefs did lose a game last week. In the process they regained a quarterback. Trent Green's 297 yards passing and 4 touchdowns proved he really can be the catlyst of this offense. Tony Gonzalez had a season high 9 receptions and topped 100 yards for the third time this season, another great sign that this team is ready to start scoring at will. This one really boils down to how well Baltimore's defense can contain Larry Johnson. His production isn't totally tied to the team winning or losing because he has already piled up 167 and 136 total yards in losing efforts, but the two teams that held him to season lows of 32 and 89 total yards also both beat the Chiefs. When the Ravens have the ball they face a fairly successful defense capable of stopping teams when they are in a groove. Typically that happens at home as evidenced by holding the Raiders and Broncos to 23 points combined in their November home victories. I think the defense is ready to force a key mistake out of McNair and help register a season saving victory. Well, for now at least.

Kansas City 20, Baltimore 16

Indianapolis (10-2) @ Jacksonville (7-5): pick JAX +1.5/under 44

Neither of these teams play like their record indicates. The Colts aren't this good and the Jags are much better than they have played at times. Indianapolis set the NFL on its ear by winning in Denver and New England on consecutive weeks. They have not won a road game since, falling 21-14 in Dallas and 20-17 at Tennessee last week on a field goal from 60 yards out. The Jaguars on the other hand would be on a 7-1 tear if they could figure out the Houston Texans who are 2-8 against the rest of the league yet swept them. So instead of being a win here away from being tied for the division lead they find themselves fighting for a wild card with nary an easy game left. The key to this game is simple. Jacksonville has a two man backfield of Jones-Drew and Taylor that expect to tear up the NFL's worst run defense. Their pair has combined to average 121 yards rushing and 44 more receiving per game while 14 total touchdowns. I expect them to get more than their season average of 25.7 carries in this one. Defensively the key factor is dealing with the loss of Darius, something Peyton Manning will take full advantage of. Indianapolis hasn't been overwhelming teams this season, and after starting 7-0 in games decided by 7 points or less has of course lost their last two such games. This is going to be a dogfight for the Colts against this defense. In six prior home games Jacksonville has allowed just 47 points total, 17 of which came on opening day to Dallas. I don't expect them to be that stingy against Indianapolis, but with Jacksonville running at will I think the field goals will start adding up.

Jacksonville 22, Indianapolis 20

Minnesota (5-7) @ Detroit (2-10): pick DET +1.5/over 39.5

Brad Johnson and Jon Kitna are a combined 72 years old. While it is unclear if either of them will start their team's thirteenth game of the season I find it utterly pointless for either to be under center in this game. The Vikings are still technically in the wild card hunt, but losing five of six games is not exactly a sign they are ready to make a run. Rookie Tarvaris Jackson has to see some action at some point, and against a 2-10 team seems like a good opportunity. The Lions somehow turned in a proud road showing in New England last week before falling 28-21. Now they draw a second trip through the NFC North before closing out the year in Dallas. Everyone is already speculating if they will take Brady Quinn with the #1 overall pick. First it might be a good idea to find out if Josh McCown or Dan Orlovksy has any potential to lead this team. McCown had four games last year throwing for 385, 398, 394 and 297 yards with solid Arizona receivers at his disposal. Orlovsky reportedly was a favorite of Martz's when he first arrived on the scene to coordinate this offense. No one in their right mind expects Kitna to be the leader of this franchise for multiple years. In this nearly meaningless game one thing is certain, someone is going to throw a lot of passes for Detroit because Minnesota has a stout run defense while the Lions are one of the worst rushing teams. I anticipate a wide open game which should lead to a lot of scoring. Despite their poor record eight of Detroit's ten losses have come by no more than 9 points. They will fight this one out. Mistakes are certain to be plentiful on both sides, but when in doubt always assume the home team will get more breaks. Minnesota has been lost for most of the past six weeks, and if Detroit's effort last week is any indication they don't want to lose their way into the #1 pick.

Detroit 30, Minnesota 24

New England (9-3) @ Miami (5-7): pick NE -3/under 37

The Patriots are still fighting for a division title, but it isn't these Dolphins who are standing in their way. Miami's 1-6 start to the season put them in too deep of a hole and last week's 24-10 home loss to Jacksonville just about zapped their shot at a miracle wild card. However, both division rivals come to town this month so they will have an impact on the playoff hunt. A big key here is who won't be running the football on either side. New England loses rookie Maroney and therefore has to rely on veteran Corey Dillon to carry the load. Since opening the season with 16 and 20 carries during wins, only once has he logged more than 14 carries over the next ten starts. How well he can single handedly attack this veteran defensive line from Miami will determine how many long drives New England has. On the other side things are much more dire. It is bad enough that the Dolphins have the #27 ranked running game against the #3 run defense. They also lose 68% of their yards gained this season with Ronnie Brown out. Sammy Morris has been around the block, but in two games of relief he has only a 55 yard scamper to show for his efforts. His other 23 carries have produced just 83 yards. With the onus on Joey Harrington against an opportunistic Patriot secondary I am smelling an ugly offensive effort. If they thought the Jags were tough last week, wait until they get another dose. Tom Brady has certainly not been at his best this season with 15 turnovers, but he has made the most of suspect receivers. Since opening the season throwing less than 30 times in all but one of the opening six he has gone over that number in six consecutive games. Now more than ever they are relying on him to get it done. This is December, and he definitely will.

New England 20, Miami 12

NY Giants (6-6) @ Carolina (6-6): pick NYG +3/under 41

If revenge is a dish best served cold, that sound you hear is New York putting it in their team freezer. They have to be sensing an opportunity to lay one on the team that came into the Meadowlands and destroyed them 23-0 in last year's playoffs. Although the Giants have thrown away the NFC East by losing four games in a row, at least they can take solace in the fact that they played well enough to beat division leading Dallas last week and are still in the wild card hunt. This is ostensibly a wild card game for both teams. The winner gets a pivotal tiebreaker over the other while the loser is forced to win out and hope for lots of help. Unfortunately for Carolina their hopes ride on the arm of Chris Weinke. He hasn't seen much action since being forced to the bench by an aging Rodney Peete in 2002, Weinke's second year in the league. Fans have been crying for him to replace the erratic Delhomme and now they might wish they hadn't. This isn't a great New York defense, but their offense has the potential to put pressure on the Panthers to score. Barber, Shockey and Burress all have big play ability and Eli Manning seems to have gotten straight last week. If they can assume a lead early it might spell doom for Carolina who had trouble moving the ball consistently even with their regular quarterback. I know the Panthers can turn in a huge defensive effort at home as they have most of the season, but I think New York whittles away at field position enough to bleed out a victory.

NY Giants 13, Carolina 9

Oakland (2-10) @ Cincinnati (7-5): pick CIN -10.5/under 39.5

If the Raiders had this defense to start this decade they might have another 3 Super Bowl trophies in their display case. Sadly, their offense isn't half as effective as the Gannon led group that won three AFC West titles in a row. The return of Aaron Brooks sparked them a little bit, but the Raiders have not scored more than 14 offensive points in six straight weeks. On the road against this Cincinnati offense that could make things very difficult. Since their train wreck against San Diego, the Bengals have also tightened up their own defense having allowed just 16, 0 and 7 points in three straight wins to put themselves back in playoff contention. Offensively they have the targets to keep Oakland's defense guessing. The biggest issue I have with Oakland trying to move the ball is their constantly changing offensive line. Two rookies will start at the guard positions and four line players will miss the game due to injury. People wonder why this team can't do anything in the second half. It might be because their line is worn out due to lack of depth. If the Bengals can avoid having any more players arrested before gametime they should have their way. Unless Randy Moss gets inspired to make a few long receptions this should be a game Cincinnati controls from start to finish. Oakland has no one to run at this defense consistently and not enough time to pass at them.

Cincinnati 23, Oakland 10

Philadelphia (6-6) @ Washington (4-8): pick PHI -1/under 40.5

Someone forgot to tell the Eagles they weren't in the playoff chase. Jeff Garcia looked like the 2000 version of himself and Philly now occupies one of the wild card spots. Holding it could get dicey with this three game trip through the NFC East. The Redskins would certainly enjoy punching a hole in their playoff bubble, but first they need to do some scoring. In their last four games Washington has posted an average of 12.8 points and seven times this season has failed to score more than 17. This is hardly what the expected when Saunders was brought on to coordinate an offense that added two free agent wide receivers. Part of the issue now is breaking in a new quarterback and playing with backup runner Ladell Betts. The Eagles have been gashed on the ground of late, but tightened up last week against the Panthers. Washington's defense has been beaten up pretty well this season with the only glimmer of hope being that they have held teams to mostly field goals on their home field. Philadelphia will attack with Westbrook first, and if that doesn't work Garcia will throw to his renegade group of receivers. I am fairly certain they can score some points whereas I don't know if Campbell can answer for the Redskins. As I have said before this is the time of year when winning teams give a little extra effort while losing teams fold up a little bit. By a small margin the Eagles survive because of that.

Philadelphia 19, Washington 17

Tennessee (5-7) @ Houston (4-8): pick TEN +1/over 42

It has been a while since I have felt this confident about a Titans team winning a football game. They are quite simply playing well over their heads right now. Vince Young makes his triumphant return to his hometown and is out to show everyone he, and not defensive end Mario Williams, should have been their pick at #1. Three straight wins over teams currently slotted to make the playoffs have people believing in VY and for good reason. He has been able to scramble his way out of the trouble most rookie quarterbacks get into. Not only has he been sacked just 14 out of 319 times he handled the football, his 372 yards rushing have been pivotal. The past four weeks he has run for 39, 49, 69 and 78 yards in three wins and a narrow 27-26 loss to Baltimore. With a second look at this defense I expect Young to be much more comfortable than he was during the 28-22 victory six weeks ago. Houston rode Oakland's mistakes to a 23-14 win last week and in the process eliminated any opportunity they might have had to again hold the draft's #1 position. Now they close the season with three of four games at home where they have actually played pretty well after starting 0-2. They beat Miami and Jacksonville and had Buffalo on the ropes before giving it away in the waning moments. Their hopes this week are pinned partially on Ron Dayne who ran for 95 yards on a tough Raider defense last week. He can keep Young on the sidelines. The more likely scenario is Travis Henry looking sharp as he has most of the season. This is a tossup and instead of leaning on the home team I will stick with Vince being pumped for his homecoming. Another 200 yards passing and 70 yards rushing will be all he needs to win this game over Houston's weak offense.

Tennessee 27, Houston 21

Green Bay (4-8) @ San Francisco (5-7): pick SF -4/under 43.5

These teams used to regularly meet in the NFC playoffs. Now the Packers will be looking to extinguish any hopes the 49ers have of stealing a wild card, ensuring both teams miss the dance. Green Bay is coming off their third home blowout loss of the season and has actually looked better on the road where they have logged three of their four wins. This is definitely not the case for San Francisco who is glad to be home after spending three of the past four weeks in hotels. They are 4-2 at Monster Park and until last week's 34-10 loss in New Orleans were starting to look like real contenders. This one is going to come down to Favre against this secondary and Gore against a soft Packer defense. Favre has had three huge games this season with 340, 340 and 347 yards passing. two of those came in domes and ironically the other came against a dome team (New Orleans). Other than that his play has been pretty average. Seven times he has failed to throw for more than 220 yards and for a guy throwing it 37.5 times per game that's not a great number. He has 7 turnovers over the last two weeks bringing his multiple turnover games total to 5. Alex Smith would love some good field position to help him along. It was debated last year if he should be taken #1 over Aaron Rodgers, who wound up going #24 to these Packers. Even though he has shown the ability to handle quarterbacking duties this season, his play has been far from stellar. Last week's 171 yards passing marked his high from the last six games and only twice has he thrown for more than 1 touchdown in a game, both of those coming in October. The 49ers mostly rely on Frank Gore to carry their load. His 1,563 total yards represent 44% of their offensive output. Last week he had only 68 yards on 18 touches representing only the fourth time he has really been handled this season. The others were 77, 79 and 77 yard outings so he has never been shut down completely. The question is if others like Antonio Bryant or rookie tight end Vernon Davis can also make a few plays. For San Francisco to win they will need to be stout on defense and get a huge game from Gore. I think they can, so I think they'll win. Favre needs 9 touchdowns to tie Dan Marino's career record. If he wants it this year he better not let it come down to the finale in Chicago so he might get two here.

San Francisco 23, Green Bay 17

Seattle (8-4) @ Arizona (3-9): pick SEA -3/over 45.5

The Cardinals were supposed to challenge for the NFC West title. Instead they are just the final road block for the Seahawks in their quest to defend successfully. Seattle has been very resilient this season even with almost every player on their offense going down with an injury. Most of their group is now back so it is a matter of getting the timing down and developing a rhythm. Going up against a weak Arizona defense could help them get into playoff form. The Cardinals have held just two opponents under 20 points all season. Their offense has had trouble scoring until the last week's 34-20 win in St. Louis. It broke a string of five weeks without breaking 17 on strict offensive scoring. Matt Leinart's play has also improved dramatically. He has completed 62.5% of his passes over the last three weeks and with his offensive weapons the only question is whether or not the line gives him time to deliver the ball. Enter the Seattle defense and their 39 sacks, third most in the NFL. Considering that everyone knows the Cardinals can't run the ball effectively even with Edgerrin James on board it could be a tough day for Leinart's bum. I like the momentum Seattle is starting to gain and expect them to start utilizing both Deion Branch and even Nate Burleson more on offense now that Hasselbeck is healthy and ready. It starts here. Arizona is a few good additions on the offensive line from challenging for 10 wins next season. For now, they're just a tough road win for a team ready to hang another banner.

Seattle 27, Arizona 20

Buffalo (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5): pick NYJ -3.5/under 37

Neither of these teams started well, but both are playing much better of late. The Bills were 2-5 prior to their bye week and have gone 3-2 since, losing only close games to possibly the AFC's best teams in the form of Indianapolis and San Diego. The Jets sputtered to a 2-3 start including a 28-20 win in Buffalo and a horrendous 41-0 loss at Jacksonville. Since that dismal day in Florida they are 5-2 and 3-1 after their bye week. New York has more momentum after winning their last two games by a combined 64-21 while Buffalo has simply been feisty against every opponent. Everyone seems to be handing the Jets a playoff berth due to a weak final four games featuring three teams with 5-7 records and closing against the 2-10 Oakland Raiders. Remember, this is a team that went 4-12 last year and came within 9 points of being the lowest scoring offense in the NFL. They have stabilized the offensive line with two rookies who are liable to hit the rookie wall as they head past the usual 12 games they would face in college. There is still no consistent lead rusher and the quarterback play of Chad Pennington has only just picked up in the past two wins. Defense is where the corner is really being turned having held their four post-bye week opponents to 14, 10, 11 and 10 points. Enter Buffalo and their #31 ranked offense that rests in the bottom four of both running and passing the ball. Their game plan is mostly smoke and mirrors or so it would seem. Banged up Willis McGahee is expected to start against a suspect New York run defense, but in 28 carries since hurting his ribs a month ago he has 28 carries for 88 yards, 30 of which came on a single run against the Jaguars. Losman's play at quarterback has been mostly erratic. His last four games have seen him complete a healthy 66.1% of his passes, but with 5 turnovers in his last three starts. His past six starts have seen him throw for over 192 yards just once. I think this is a tight fisted defensive battle. Whether it is McGahee or Thomas running for the Bills they will be able to keep the chains moving, but not create touchdowns. Pennington will limit his mistakes, look average and win the game.

NY Jets 16, Buffalo 10

Denver (7-5) @ San Diego (10-2): pick SD -7/over 41

In ten years we might look back and marvel at the first meeting of Rivers and Cutler. They might not turn into the Fouts or Elway of their respective franchises, but both are expected to lead them into the playoffs. Rivers has the upper hand after spending two seasons on the sideline preparing for this year. He can also deliver a deadly blow to the hopes of Cutler being a Romo clone in delivering a surge to a stagnant team. Right now the San Diego offense is just too good to be held down. The average guy on the street can't name their wide receivers, but with Tomlinson terrorizing defenses and Gates at tight end it hardly matters. For the record, Eric Parker and the venerable Keenan McCardell start. Neither hsa scored a touchdown, but they have combined for 73 receptions and 941 yards. Then there's Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson who have just 28 receptions between them, six for touchdowns. Where once the Broncos dominated on defense this season, now they are susceptible. It seems that Peyton Manning taking his Colts up and down the field on them started the spiral. Before that game they had allowed a mere 7.3 points per contest, and starting with Indy's romp they are giving up 24.0 a game. Included in that is a 35-27 loss to these Chargers. Denver was in control at 24-7 and had they simply held on the stakes for this rematch would be considerably higher. The reason they couldn't is partially because their running game has deserted them. The stats are still lofty, but in the flow of play they simply don't put teams away any longer. The Chargers are at home knowing that by winning this game and then taking out visiting Kansas City they will win the AFC West regardless. Cutler's debut did nothing for me, and unless he has a big game this one won't be close.

San Diego 31, Denver 14

New Orleans (8-4) @ Dallas (8-4): pick NO +7.5/over 47

Never before has the title of America's Team been more up for grabs. The Cowboys still have it in the minds of many, but now that the Saints are a winning team and in the wake of Katrina others have doubts. Now they get to decide it on the field in front of a national audience. Both teams have surged behind new starting quarterbacks. Dalla just got theirs started a little late. While Romo is the media darling, Brees is setting records. Last week his string of games with at least 300 yards passing was snapped at five, but it hardly mattered with the Saints beating up San Francisco 34-10. He is still on pace for 4,865 yards and 27 touchdowns. More importantly he has seven games without a turnover, and the New Orleans is 5-2 in those games. Romo's season might have peaked on Thanksgiving with the 306 yards and 5 touchdown passes. He had a pair of interceptions last week and the more film defensive coordinators pile up on him the harder it could be for him to limit the mistakes. Both teams have two solid options running the ball. Dallas seems to be leaning more towards Barber lately and he has cashed in 11 touchdown runs on the season while spelling Julius Jones. Reggie Bush might be in the mix for rookie of the year after his dominating performance last week brought his season totals to 930 yards rushing and receiving with 6 total touchdowns including his punt return. He leads the team with 73 receptions while veteran Deuce McAllister has plugged along with a solid 4.4 yard average per rush. These teams are also similar with multiple threats at receiver. It is hard to imagine New Orleans drafting the Biletnikoff winner Mike Hass, then discarding him and trading away last year's leading receiver Stallworth. Those moves would seem to kill the group, but instead they have woken up Devery Henderson while getting a dream season out of rookie Marques Colston until his recent injury. Speaking of injuries it might come back to haunt them in this game. Without Colston or Horn I seriously doubt they can exploit the Dallas defense with Bush as they did with San Francicso last week. The Cowboys counter with Glenn, Owens and Witten if they decide to throw the ball. They might be running quite a bit at this front line that was suspect even before Thomas was lost at tackle. It is a nice story for the Saints to be competing, but on the road against a good team who is on a roll I don't see it continuing this week.

Dallas 28, New Orleans 24

Chicago (10-2) @ St. Louis (5-7): pick CHI -6/under 41.5

The biggest challenge facing the Bears in the final month could be staying awake. They are likely to clinch home field throughout the NFC playoffs next week and will face four teams with losing records. Perhaps the quarterback controversy will help them maintain an edge. If Brian Griese is in fact taking half the snaps this could get interesting. Then again, the Bears will more than likely be going with Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson on the ground against the #31 rated run defense. If that doesn't help Grossman have a decent game he should just pack it in. On the other side, Steven Jackson gets the luxury of facing a Chicago defense that just lost stud tackle Tommie Harris. Now that mad scientist Mike Martz is no longer calling the shots he has carried the ball at least 18 times in all but one game this season and just went over 1,000 yards. He is also a monster catching the ball with 72 receptions for 622 yards. Still, even with Bulger leading a great aerial attack as well this team managed just 20 points against both the 49ers and Cardinals the past two weeks on this field. I think Chicago is going to create bigger problems by just a little. MNF does create interesting games, but I think the Bears just run right at the Rams. If they aren't successful they will punt instead of forcing the issue. They are the 10-2 team with very little pressure. St. Louis is going to be a little more desperate. Sometimes it works, other times it doesn't.

Chicago 23, St. Louis 16

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