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Monday, July 23 2018

NFL Predictions 2006: Week 15

SportRest in peace Lamar Hunt. You were respected by all, even Raider fans.

San Francisco (5-8) @ Seattle (8-5): pick SEA -9.5/over 38.5

When the 49ers upset the Seahawks the first time around I thought it might give them a rare meaningful game in December. Nope, it just delayed the party. San Francisco has been the beneficiary of a particularly terrible NFC this season. With the exception of getting by these wounded Seahawks, they have mostly been blown out by the contenders. Losses to Kansas City, Chicago and New Orleans on the road and at home to San Diego were by an average of 31.3 points. Now that the cream of the NFC West has their house a little more in order I expect them to flex their muscles for the NFL Network audience. Even if Seattle's play hasn't been spectacular of late, they are glad to be home after playing three of four on the road. The plus was that they didn't have to travel far to San Francisco, Denver or Arizona and combined with a home win over Green Bay wound up 3-1. Now even with a loss to the Chargers they are staring at a #3 seed in the playoffs and possible divisional round game in New Orleans after dispatching whoever wins the second wild card. The 49ers aren't built to quit under Nolan. Unfortunately, they are outclassed in this one. Last week's loss in Arizona will probably be the last poor game the Seahawks play all year. The 49ers don't have the home crowd to motivate their defense this time around and all things considered should be happy to finish 6-10 which is where I expect them to be after beating Arizona and losing in Denver.

Seattle 27, San Francisco 13

Dallas (8-5) @ Atlanta (7-6): pick ATL +4.5/under 45.5

The Falcons have been a tough team to figure this season. For the most part they have beaten up on bad teams, going 6-2 against clubs with losing records. Their lone quality win is a 29-27 victory in Cincinnati although they did beat Carolina 20-6 on the road on opening day. At that point the Panthers were pretty good. Likewise, the Cowboys are 6-1 against losers, leaving them only 2-4 against winners. However, those two have come in the past month under the leadership of Romo. Their first real whooping under their new quarterback came last week against New Orleans when Sean Payton beat the old master convincingly. Now the chips are down and Atlanta's best threats are in street clothes. Their bread and butter is the run, but Dunn and Norwood are out. The talk of lining up Vick at running back is intriguing. I for one would love to see Vick simply sit out a series so Schaub can spread the field with Lelie, White, Jenkins and Crumpler. Gimmicks won't really beat this defense though. Last week the Saints had a bevy of weapons and a quarterback in the midst of a dream season terrorizing them. This week they first have to get the ball before they can hope to do some damage. Their pass defense is the league's second worst, and while they have managed the run well it will take a good effort to do so for four quarters against Jones and Barber. I don't like Atlanta's offense over the past six games when their scoring average is just 15.2 points. To be fair, four of those six were on the road, but the two home games produced 13 each and they lost both. Dallas was held to 17 on opening day and also in their last game. In the 11 games between their low was 19 with six efforts of at least 27. Their scoring ability will carry them.

Dallas 24, Atlanta 21

Cleveland (4-9) @ Baltimore (10-3): pick BAL -11.5/under 34.5

The Ravens can wrap up the AFC North in wire to wire fashion with a win. The Browns can ensure another last place finish with a loss. There isn't too much analysis that needs to go into this one. Way back in week 3 it wasn't quite that simple when these teams first met in Ohio. Baltimore trailed 14-3 at halftime and it stood that way until the first place of the final quarter. They wound up needing a Stover field goal from 52 yards out with less than a minute to play for a 15-14 victory. This one figures to be quite a different story. Cleveland starts Derek Anderson at quarterback against a defense that has made fools of better players. His showing in Pittsburgh last week might have prepared him for hostile territory and defenders who attack, but his team lost 27-7. His stats weren't bad with 276 yards, a touchdown pass and an interception on 21/37 passing. I don't see him anywhere near that in this one. Quite simply the Browns can't run and can't stop the run. They have no chance to control the tempo of this game. Baltimore hasn't run the ball well, but they can certainly make your offense one dimensional. They also have a quarterback determined not to make the crucial mistake. Back at home after a two week road trip through Cincinnati and Kansas City I expect the Ravens to exhale a bit so they could be susceptible to some big plays. After the game settles down, they win convincingly.

Baltimore 23, Cleveland 6

Detroit (2-11) @ Green Bay (5-8): pick GB -5/under 44

Fans of the Packers might find it a bit ironic that as their aging star quarterback rides into the sunset he can help a division rival come one step closer to landing their first franchise signal caller in recent memory. These teams had a horrific 1-9 combined start. The win came when they met each other, Green Bay's 31-24 week 3 triumph in Detroit. Since the first five weeks they have gone a more palatable 6-10 combined with the Packers being 4-4 after their bye week. If the Lions are playing for the #1 overall pick it is difficult to see beause even while losing five in a row they have mostly been competitive. The offense still hasn't figured out a way to score and now will have to deal with the loss of stud all-purpose back Kevin Jones .and his 1,209 total yards. Leaving it all on Jon Kitna's arm in chilly Lambeau is a tall order. For example, leading receiver Roy Williams has been a yardage monster this season but his average game drops from 107.6 yards to 60.5 when he leaves Ford Field. All told 80% of his yards have come in 8 games played indoors with an outdoor high of 71. The Packer corners have played well at times and given the lack of a running game should be able to contain Kitna's passing. Defensively the Lions have been getting the hammer laid to them of late starting with Thanksgiving. Their last three games have produced 27, 28 and 30 points by the opposition. Green Bay has plenty of offense to challenge them. Favre is trying to set the all-time touchdown record and has already torn up this defense for 340 yards and 3 scores. He just lit up the 49ers for 293 and a pair of touchdowns last week to snap a three game losing streak. In those three the Pack allowed 35, 34 and 38 points so perhaps their defense got tired of getting beaten to a pulp. I hasten to say this again after the Jets pummeled them here, but Green Bay has to have another nice home win. They are due and Detroit should oblige.

Green Bay 26, Detroit 12

Houston (4-9) @ New England (9-4): pick NE -11/under 38

As bad as the Texans looked early in the season they are 3-5 since opening with four convincing losses in their first five games. They also have just one loss by more than six points over that stretch so they aren't throwing in the towel. The Patriots are desperate for an opponent to roll over for them. Their last six has produced a very unfamiliar 3-3 record and just one victory by over a touchdown. Usually this is when they start revving up their game. Clearly Brady misses his starting receivers even if he is on pace for 3,626 yards passing and 25 touchdowns. Those numbers are on par with his past four full years although is 84.9 passer rating is the lowest of his career by a small margin. If explosive rookie back Laurence Maroney is again sidelined I expect him to be his usual self, distributing the ball well against a bad Houston secondary. In fact, all elements of the Texans are bad on both sides of the ball. Their highest ranking is in run defense at #20. By contrast, New England's worst is pass defense at #15. First things first, the Patriots will shut off the run. Ron Dayne had a nice game last week in Oakland, but he's not going to repeat it. If David Carr is the one who has to win this game it isn't happening. He has thrown just 1 touchdown pass over his last seven games, overshadowing the fact that he has protected the ball well over that span with just 7 turnovers. This is another mismatch and Brady just fired up his team for their poor play in Miami last week. It all adds up to a huge win.

New England 31, Houston 6

Jacksonville (8-5) @ Tennessee (6-7): pick JAX -3/under 41

Suddenly the Titans are a factor and have to be dealt with. Vince Young has this team playing with confidence having won four in a row. They have done it against three teams still in playoff contention and twice on the road. The offense that was so stale during an 0-5 start with just 12.0 points per game has come alive to average 23.4 while going 5-2 since. Unfortunately, they were stifled in a 37-7 loss at Jacksonville, a place where most offenses get stuffed. Tennessee will hope to ride home field to some momentum because the Jags have allowed 21, 36, 27 and 27 in various road games thus far so they aren't inpenetrable on the road. One thing is certain, both of these teams want to run the ball and are doing it successfully with top 4 rankings in yards gained. Jacksonville can stop it though, and they also have two running backs capable of hurting a vulnerable run defense. Stroud can also force Travis Henry outside for the Titans, who again will rely on Young's ability to make things happen at quarterback. After some inconsistent play which included two losses to Houston and another to struggling Buffalo produced a 3-3 start to Jacksonville's post-bye season I think they have turned the corner. Big wins over surging Miami and then thumping Indianapolis have them where they need to be. There is more on the line for them and it is too much to expect Young to take out a defense of this caliber even if he almost did it against Baltimore. The Jaguars will control the action and grind this one out.

Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 17

Miami (6-7) @ Buffalo (6-7): pick BUF -1/under 34.5

These teams could have given up after rough starts to the season, but neither has. They combined to go 3-11 out of the gate with one of those wins by virtue of the Bills winning 16-6 in sunny Florida back in week 2. Then both had their bye weeks and started going in the right direction, combining to go 9-3 of late. Both beat contenders last week and the loser of this one has their slim playoff hopes dashed to be sure. Neither has a particularly easy road to the 9-7 mark required to be in the conversation anyway. A big factor deciding this one is a guy familiar with playing in Buffalo, former Bill Sammy Morris who spent four years there as a backup with just 134 carries total. He is coming off tearing up the Patriots for 123 yards on 25 carries. The big catalyst of this Miami offense is their ability to spread it around through the air. Four players have at least 49 receptions and 498 yards (tight end McMichael's totals) with Welker leading in catches (59) and Booker leading in yards (701). Chris Chambers has been almost an afterthought. Joey Harrington has gained a comfort level at quarterback and last week against a tough New England defense had just his second turnover free game in nine starts. His opposite number Losman has been able to keep his team in games the same way. Six times he has put up a zero in the turnover department, producing a 4-2 record. The two losses were 19-17 in New England and 17-16 in Indianapolis against two pretty good teams. Clearly mistakes will decide this game and I think Harrington is more likely to commit one. Willis McGahee will also have to stay on the field if the Bills want to win. He has had just 16 carries in each of the last two weeks after logging 12 in his return to action. His 214 yards over that span are decent, but 87 of them came on two long runs leaving his average otherwise at 3.02 per rush. Points are at a premium and I actually like both defenses to step it up. In the end I have a hard time picking against the Bills at home in December if it's close.

Buffalo 16, Miami 13

NY Jets (7-6) @ Minnesota (6-7): pick MIN -3/under 41

This amounts to a playoff team from both teams, neither of which expected to be in this position. The Jets have gotten here by staying pretty steady with no winning or losing streaks extending to 3 games. The Vikings were in prime position before dropping four in a row and have had to win two of their last three just to stay alive. If New York had been playing playoff ball while squashing Houston and Green Bay in recent weeks, they certainly didn't during a 31-13 home loss to Buffalo. Now they need to get it done on the road including a trip to Miami next week before hosting Oakland to close out the season. Minnesota's next stop is Green Bay before returning home to face St. Louis, an easier path to a possible wild card. First they need to win this game and the easiest way to do it is by relying on their record setting run defense against a team with a cast of characters trying to carry the ball. The flip side of that coin is a bad New York run defense against possibly Chester Taylor returning to the fold. Even if he isn't up to the task Artose Pinner had a nice week in relief. At quarterback Brad Johnson's play has been pretty bad with 19 turnovers. However, aside from giving up 4 to the tough Chicago defense he has just two in his past three games. Pennington has also been turnover prone with 18 including seven in the past four games. His two game surge in passing yards with 286 and 263 came to an end with 182 last week marking the eighth time he has failed to reach 200 this season. That's bad news for a team likely to rely on his arm. Ultimately I like the Minnesota defense at home. They are usually good for turnovers and at least one big play. Against a one dimensional attack you can expect an interception or two from a an opponent throwing 40 some odd passes. It will be the difference.

Minnesota 19, NY Jets 14

Pittsburgh (6-7) @ Carolina (6-7): pick CAR +3/under 38

Mathematically the Steelers can still hold out hopes of defending their title in the playoffs with their 4-1 push. Meanwhile the Panthers are the team being pushed right out of the mix with a three game losing streak. It won't help that Weinke is starting again at quarterback. He threw for 423 mostly meaningless yards due to his 3 interceptions last week against the Giants. In recent weeks the Steelers have picked on lesser quarterbacks in the form of Bruce Gradkowski and Derek Anderson while giving up a total of 10 points in two wins. The same attacking formula will come into play here. Even with some blips, Pittsburgh's defense can still shut teams down and when they do Roethlisberger is less likely to turn it over. The five times he has thrown 28 passes or less he has just 1 interception. The other seven games have produced 19 picks. I haven't seen the fight in Carolina's defense in letting Jeff Garcia come back on them at Philadelphia and Eli Manning get right against them last week. Both times they allowed 27. This week I expect a defensive struggle, but the Steelers have a clock controlling weapon in Willie Parker. I'm not sure Weinke can utilize Steve Smith to counter their attack. When in doubt go with the more experienced team heading in the right direction over the one fading fast without their quarterback. I don't trust Foster to do anything other than get hurt.

Pittsburgh 19, Carolina 17

Tampa Bay (3-10) @ Chicago (11-2): pick CHI -13.5/under 34.5

Anyone expecting the Bears to coast towards the playoffs had their eyes opened last week on MNF. They laid the wood to the Rams 42-27 and appear ready to be a nightmare for rookie quarterback Brad Gradkowski. After some early success in relief of the injured Chris Simms he has been struggling badly. Not since his first start produced 225 yards passing has he been able to exceed 185 yards. He has no touchdown passes against 6 turnovers in his last three starts. I can hear the Bear defense licking their chops. Aside from a puzzling 31-13 loss to Miami this Chicago defense has given up just 8.6 points per game at Soldier Field. The Bucs have scored a grand total of 19 the last three weeks and 7 times have been held to no more than 10. It is hard to imagine them doing anything offensively. Thomas Jones might not be around to run the ball for Chicago and Muhsin Muhammad likely won't be suited up to catch it. That hardly matters. Benson and Peterson can handle the rushing duties and will wear down the Tampa Bay defense. This isn't going to be highlight reel material. Bring a good book to the game. You'll need it.

Chicago 17, Tampa Bay 3

Washington (4-9) @ New Orleans (9-4): pick NO -9.5/under 47

A season of high expectations has devolved into playing the role of spoilers for the Redskins. Now even that has been somewhat taken away because the Saints have already clinched the NFC South which leaves them fighting for a playoff seeding. They are also on a tremendous roll having won by 18, 24 and 25 points the last three weeks. Meanwhile Washington is trying to avoid their second three game losing streak having already pulled out wins to stop 2 game skids twice already this season. They never expected Ladell Betts to be their leading rusher though, and his play the last three weeks is a rare bright spot. With 85 carries for 430 yards it is easy to see why they locked him up for another contract. Portis had 523 in 8 games before getting hurt. The other expectation is that Campbell will get comfortable at quarterback. He has thrown a touchdown in every start with 6 total in four games, but he also has five interceptions and only 178 yards passing per game. The Saints made Romo look bad last week so I think we know what they'll do to this guy. Offensively too much goes right for New Orleans to blow a game against a lesser team. Even with receivers shuffling into the lineup they have the top rated passing game. McAllister and Bush do just enough running to maintain balance. The key factor this week will be their run defense. Betts will attack them all day if the game stays close. It will be up to Brees and company to get a 10-0 or 14-0 lead so that doesn't happen. I think New Orleans will start fast and then bleed it out. Their offense needs some rest, and there is no reason to run it up. That's when injuries often happen.

New Orleans 27, Washington 10

Denver (7-6) @ Arizona (4-9): pick AZ +3/over 42

It's all about the rookie quarterbacks in this one. The Broncos traded up to get Jay Cutler who has started 0-2 with four turnovers. The Cardinals were fortunate to have Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart fall into their lap a pick sooner. After losing his first five starts he has certainly settled in with victories in three of his past four games. He also has six games with at least 216 yards passing which doesn't seem like a high number, but translates to 3,456 if he posts that total every week. Then there is poor Jake Plummer who makes his return to the desert holding a clipboard. The other story is the running backs. Edgerrin James was brought in by the Cardinals to revive a terrible rushing attack. The last two weeks he has had identical lines with 26 carries for 115 yards which is what they had expected of him all year. Conversely, the Broncos are known for plugging in any old Joe to run the ball. That formula appears to have finally tapped out despite a #5 ranking in yards gained. Case in point is last week when the pair of Bells had 27 carries for 162 yards. The Broncos lost the game 48-20. Stats can be deceiving. That punishing loss was also indicative of how poorly the defense has fared since dominating earlier this season. Their last seven outings have produced an average of 27.4 points allowed and a 2-5 record. They gave up only 11.8 during their 5-1 start. Where Arizona is concerned, their offense appears to be coming alive after winning 34-20 in St. Louis and then beating Seattle 27-21 last week. The defense has been steadily bad though in allowing at least 21 points in eleven of their thirteen games. Playing in opposite conferences this won't be a pairing we will see for another four years, but on this day Leinart is likely to get the better of Cutler. Even if Darrent Williams is mistaken about his Broncos quitting, just the thought of it coupled with their four game losing streak has me believing the Cardinals can get this done.

Arizona 23, Denver 20

Philadelphia (7-6) @ NY Giants (7-6): pick NYG -5/under 43.5

By winning last week both teams stayed very much in the wild card hunt. The winner will control their playoff destiny with two games remaining. The Giants are probably relieved to have snapped their losing streak at four while the Eagles are hoping the Garcia magic can push their winning streak to three as they continue a road trip through the division. New York is just glad to be home after playing three of the last four on the road. Their defense has done most of their good work at the Meadowlands. The game will come down to which offense hands their defense the lead. Neither team really wants to play from behind, especially if the Jersey winds are swirling. This will also be a battle of two similar all-purpose running backs who can really carry their offense. Westbrook has a string of seven consecutive games with 100+ total yards and a healthy 5.1 yard average per rush. With just 6 yards rushing he will eclipse 1,000 for the first time in his career and with 80 yards receiving he will set a new high in that category as well. Barring a change of heart this will mark his last showdown with Tiki Barber. For the season Barber has 1,682 total yards to Westbrook's 1,619 although a higher percentage of his production comes on the ground and his average rush (4.8) is slightly lower. Obviously both backs will be busy, but the supporting cast from the Giants is probably stronger. They also have the home field to motivate their defense. Way back in week 2 it was the Eagles building a big lead only to let Eli's Giants stun them 30-24 in overtime. This one won't be anything like that. Wind permitting I expect plenty of field goals because I'm not sure either defense can avoid bending quite a bit. Neither will really break with the season on the line because they won't want to give up the big play. New York is more likely to make one and it proves to be the difference.

NY Giants 22, Philadelphia 16

St. Louis (5-8) @ Oakland (2-11): pick STL +3/under 39

These teams will be forever linked after both exited Los Angeles for the 1995 season. Each has made it to the Super Bowl since with the Rams winning and the Raiders losing, but neither is showing signs of a return trip in the near future. When the season is over I expect St. Louis to ponder what might have been with killer field goals allowed twice against Seattle. If not for those kicks they would be leading the NFC West at 7-6 with three teams with losing records left on the schedule. Yes, we have reached that level of paity. Reality has been a 1-7 skid following a 4-1 start. It all began with Brown's first kick to beat them on October 15. The Raiders have actually been better over that same stretch at 2-6, but have lost their last six. After battling it out against their three division foes in close losses they blew up with turnovers against Houston and were soundly beaten in Cincinnati. It would have been hard to imagine in June that their most productive receiver lining up in December would be Ronald Curry and their leading rusher would be Justin Fargas. To put things in perspective, injured Randy Moss leads all Raiders with 553 yards receiving and 42 receptions. The Rams have three players including running back Steven Jackson with more catches and yards. Third receiver Kevin Curtis has similar numbers to Moss with 37 receptions good for 422 yards. He also leads Moss 4-3 in touchdowns. On the bright side Oakland has really turned it up on defense. However, their man coverage is not going to work against these weapons. Their run defense is also going to get worn down by Jackson pounding the ball at them. The Raiders haven't scored over 14 points strictly on offense since October 22. Even if the Rams have struggled a bit in scoring offense at times, they have posted 20, 20 and 27 the last three weeks. They will grab control of this game and never let go.

St. Louis 24, Oakland 12

Kansas City (7-6) @ San Diego (11-2): pick SD -7.5/over 46

The NFL's most productive running backs will share the SNF spotlight in a playoff atmosphere. The Chiefs are backed up against the wall in their quest for a wild card spot after losing their last two games. Now they probably have to escape California (they play Oakland next) with two wins to make their season ending game against Jacksonville meaningful. For San Diego things couldn't be going much better since they lost to these Chiefs 30-27 on October 22. Seven victories in a row have given them the AFC West title and put them in position to make next week's visit to Seattle their last road game of the season en route to a Super Bowl in Miami. The offense is scoring at will while the defense does plenty to hold up their end of the bargain. Kansas City will hope to slow them down with Larry Johnson, but last week's 120 yard effort against Baltimore marked the third time this year when they have lost despite LJ running for at least 110 yards. He also hasn't scored a touchdown in two weeks, which in his case is notable. Then there is record setting Tomlinson who has accounted for 31 touchdowns including his two passes and has a streak of 7 consecutive games with multiple touchdowns on the ground and 100+ yards rushing. It has coinicided with their seven game winning streak. The difference here is that Kansas City's defense can't get any stops. They let Derek Anderson work them over in Cleveland two weeks ago so Rivers will have his way. Unless San Diego rests on their division title this game will not be close. Trent Green just doesn't have it in him to shoot it out for a win.

San Diego 30, Kansas City 17

Cincinnati (8-5) @ Indianapolis (10-3): pick CIN +3.5/over 54

In a week filled with playoff implications this could be a playoff preview. The Bengals are fighting to hold one of two wild card spots while the Colts are struggling to avoid having to play one of those teams in the opening round. Offense obviously isn't much of a problem for either team, but Indy has been uncharacteristically quiet in recent weeks. Four of their previous five games have produced either 14 or 17 points scored from a team used to posting those totals in a quarter quite often. Cincinnati meanwhile has done the opposite in four of their last five, scoring at least 27 with an average of 32.3 in those outbursts. Their defense has also stepped up considerably in allowing just 17 points total over the last three weeks, kickstarting them to a four game winning streak. Everyone knows the gameplan against the Colts is to run right at them. Cincinnati can do that with Rudi Johnson who just went over 1,000 yards for the third straight year. It won't be as dramatic as Jacksonville's 375 yards last week because they don't have a changeup punch. Without Chris Perry their relief running backs have 19 and 13 carries for the season. Instead they will bomb the Colts with Johnson and Houshmandzadeh. Speaking of getting bombed, Peyton Manning will attack the NFL's most porous secondary with Wayne and Harrison who are both over 1,000 yards receiving on the year with a combined 14 touchdowns. They will also have a better chance to wear down Cincinnati on the ground because Addai and Rhodes can both carry the load. Since demolishing Philly in primetime though Addai has just 78 yards rushing on 27 carries in two games. He will need to get going if they want to win this track meet. Momentum is on the side of the Bengals, but that can be a funny thing. The Colts are anxious to show the nation that they are still a team to be reckoned with. I think they have enough offense to pull this one out in dramatic fashion.

Indianapolis 38, Cincinnati 36

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