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Monday, July 16 2018

NFL Predictions 2006: Week 16

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Minnesota (6-8) @ Green Bay (6-8): pick GB -3/under 38


The fact that this game has playoff implications is a clear indication of the sorry state of the NFC where only five teams have winning records with just two games left. Whoever wins this game can hope for other teams like the Giants and Falcons to lose thereby keeping their hopes alive. Tarvaris Jackson becomes the fifth rookie quarterback to start a game when he supplants Brad Johnson for the Vikings. It would be fitting if he began a streak for Minnesota just as Favre ended his for the Packers, at home at least, but that won’t be the case. Favre will return in 2007 to set the record for touchdown passes and possibly yards after eclipsing Dan Marino in completions last week. Under the radar both teams are led by successful running backs. Green Bay veteran Ahman Green is poised to go over 1,000 yards rushing for the sixth time in seven seasons with the team and could finish the year with 1,500 total yards. His understudy Vernand Morency has chipped in 492 total yards on just 94 touches. For Minnesota, their backfield by committee which had kept them from having a 1,000 yard rusher since Michael Bennett’s 1,296 in 2002 finally came to an end thanks to free agent signing Chester Taylor. With 1,402 total yards he has been a rare highlight on a fairly inept offense. Perhaps the one sure thing in this game is that the Vikings will contain the run. They are allowing a scary low 55.1 yards per game which should force Favre to the air early and often. With a rookie quarterback Minnesota will probably rely on Taylor and Pinner to hammer away at a mediocre Packer run defense. This might not be Favre’s final home game, but I expect him to play like it is in front of an almost national audience. Jackson is a potential star, but he will be closer to star struck in this game, throwing a pair of costly picks.


Green Bay 21, Minnesota 14


Kansas City (7-7) @ Oakland (2-12): pick KC -6.5/under 36


The Raiders haven’t been this bad since dinosaurs roamed the planet, or so it seems. The Chiefs are holding out slim playoff hopes and want to put early pressure on the teams playing Sunday. When first these teams met a month ago Aaron Brooks made his return at quarterback for Oakland and sparked the offense. It took a late touchdown for Kansas City to pull out a 17-13 win. If the Raiders want to avoid a second straight winless season in the AFC West they will just about have to shut out the Chiefs. In half of their games Oakland has failed to score an offensive touchdown, and nine times their offensive output has failed to exceed 14 points. Kansas City can exploit their solid defense with Larry Johnson in different ways and Tony Gonzalez is a regular Raider killer. The Raiders are starting Ronald Curry and seldom used Johnnie Morant, an exhibition season wonder, at wide receiver. Their leading rusher is Justin Fargas who coming into this season had only 80 carries. I don’t see how their offense can answer any score Kansas City puts up in this situation. The Chiefs have too much to lose and maybe the Raiders do as well. If they in fact want Brady Quinn this is a game they can’t win.

Kansas City 19, Oakland 10

Baltimore (11-3) @ Pittsburgh (7-7): pick BAL +3.5/under 36.5


This game should boil down to a question of motivation. The Ravens are still battling for possibly the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but have already clinched the division title. The Steelers, like half the AFC, are trying to win their final two games and hope it is enough for one of the two wild card spots. If Pittsburgh wants to figure out what went wrong this year, they can point to the loss in Oakland with Big Ben throwing two picks that were returned for touchdowns. After losing again the next week to Denver the team really got right winning five of their last six. The exception of course was a demoralizing 27-0 loss in Baltimore. It is hard to fathom the Steelers figuring out a way to avoid a similar fate just a month later. The Ravens are into playoff form on defense, getting back to where they were in the opening five games when they allowed an average of 9.2 points and just four touchdowns. After that Baltimore gave up 23, 22, 20 and 26 on consecutive weeks, but has bounced back to average 10.0 the last five outings. Pittsburgh has also turned up the heat on defense, giving up 13 points total in three wins since the loss to Baltimore. However, those were against teams led by Bruce Gradkowski, Derek Anderson and Chris Weinke. This could be a back to reality game for the Steelers. Yes they are technically in the wild mix. No they do not have a realistic chance to defend their title because four teams are sitting on 8-6 with only two spots to be had. After bottling up Parker big time in the first meeting I think Baltimore figured out that by cutting him out of the offense the Steelers are ruined. Roethlisberger can’t carry them against this defense. McNair won’t have to do much other than hand the ball to Jamal Lewis and let Ray Lewis show the world why he should be in the Pro Bowl.


Baltimore 13, Pittsburgh 9


Carolina (6-8) @ Atlanta (7-7): pick ATL -6/over 40


The Panthers finally hit rock bottom on offense last week at home versus Pittsburgh. I can’t be certain who exactly Brett Basanez is, but he was throwing passes for them before it was over. They are just that desperate. As a result their defense has pretty much given up in yielding 27, 27 and 37 the last three outings. On the road against a team with a more realistic shot at the playoffs I wonder how much emotion they will bring to the field. The Falcons were pushed around a bit by Dallas last week, but prior to that won two road games to erase some of the sting from a four game losing streak. They should be able to shut down Carolina’s attempts to run the ball, leaving DeAngelo Hall to prove he is worthy of that Pro Bowl spot by containing Steve Smith. Atlanta will hope Dunn is healthy enough to keep their own running game going against a defense giving up plenty of yards on the ground. The health of Vick is another question. If he can’t finish the game I think it just changes their game plan and Schaub shows why he is the most coveted free agent quarterback. The Panthers appear to have given up. If Delhomme was around to rally them they might have a chance. Other than that I think Michael Vick has a measure of revenge for the 1999 Sugar Bowl when Weinke led his Florida State Seminoles to a national title over his Virginia Tech Hokies.


Atlanta 26, Carolina 17


Chicago (12-2) @ Detroit (2-12): pick DET +6/under 42.5


Many of the Bears will either not start or not finish this meaningless game, but the question is how big of an impact that will really make. At quarterback and running back it should be minimal because Griese and the combination of Benson and Peterson give them a fighting chance to move the ball. On defense typically guys aren’t pulled for whatever reason and with 29 turnovers on the season Jon Kitna must be on pace to set some kind of record. It is really no surprise that a Mike Martz offense wants to throw the ball on almost every down, but without the threat of a run I have to expect a few turnovers from ready and waiting Chicago defenders. The only thing that gives me pause is how Tim Rattay was able to throw darts all over the field in erasing a huge deficit last week when the game seemed to be in hand. This week pride should prevent them from giving up any more bombs for touchdowns. Chicago should be content to run the ball with regularity and keep Detroit’s passing game in front of them. The Lions are in position to pick up the #1 position in the draft and wouldn’t it be ironic if Kitna had a big game to prevent them from drafting Brady Quinn at that spot? I guess in that way he might be playing for his job, but he would have the state of Michigan ready to throw trash on his yard. This is going to be a painful game to watch. Detroit will make mistakes while Chicago will pray for the clock to run out before anyone gets hurt. In the end the Bears will do their usual thing on special teams and defense to scratch out a win.


Chicago 17, Detroit 16


Indianapolis (11-3) @ Houston (4-10): pick IND -9/over 46.5


With their little swoon the Colts might have cost themselves a little bit of home field in the playoffs, but by smashing Cincinnati last week they certainly appeared to be over it. Defensively it was nice to see them contain the run and that effort could continue this week against a Houston team not doing much on the ground. Ron Dayne has given them life the last three weeks with 57 carries for 276 yards (4.84 average) and three touchdowns, just missing the century mark in each game. Clearly the Colts will be able to hone in on him because David Carr is all but washed up as quarterback of this team. His last three weeks have produced a grand total of 299 yards and no touchdowns, capped off by last week’s 4 interceptions in New England. He has gone 8 games with just 1 touchdown pass total. The recipe for success then is pretty simple, cover Andre Johnson deep and stack the line to stop the run. Houston’s task is not quite as simple. Indianapolis could get Addai back into the fold for his return to his hometown. He would love to run on this team in front of friends and family. Otherwise Peyton Manning has two stud receivers with no answer at cornerback for the Texans. Either way the Colts want to keep building the momentum towards the playoffs. Not since 2002 has Indianapolis not won 12 games, a streak they should keep alive with a win here.


Indianapolis 31, Houston 19


New England (10-4) @ Jacksonville (8-6): pick NE +3/under 37


This could have been a great showcase between two of the great rookie running backs to come out of this draft. Instead it appears the Patriots will again be without Maroney. The Jaguars are also down a man in the backfield with Fred Taylor not expected to play. That leaves the spotlight to Maurice Jones-Drew against a New England run defense allowing just 87.7 yards per game, fourth best in the NFL. Without two backs to throw at them I think it will be tough to keep moving the chains with Garrard throwing the ball. He has been very average so far this season, relying on defense to win games. One thing Jacksonville has going for it is New England’s ugly performance in their last trip to Florida. Two weeks ago they were spanked 21-0 in Miami. That loss sparked a fire in them though and I expect another strong performance similar to their 40-7 thrashing of Houston last week. The Jaguars have been extremely inconsistent, but have been able to pull out wins following their past four losses. They were beaten 24-17 in Tennessee last week without allowing an offensive touchdown and now more than ever they need to avoid a losing streak. Dillon might find the going tough on the ground against this defense, but with both teams stuck in neutral running the ball it is hard to bet against Brady being able to lead more positive drives than Garrard.


New England 16, Jacksonville 13


New Orleans (9-5) @ NY Giants (7-7): pick NO +3/over 47


The last time the Saints came into the Meadowlands to face the Giants it was a bizarre “home” opener in the wake of hurricane Katrina. That visit produced a 27-10 blowout loss. This one could spell the end of New York’s season and the tenure of head coach Tom Coughlin. If the Giants really wanted a wild card they should have taken care of business against Garcia and the Eagles last week. Brees brings an even better offense to town and Strahan doesn’t appear ready to help this defense stop the bleeding. In what is likely Tiki Barber’s final home game he will need to match production with the dangerous backfield of McAllister and Bush. Coupled with Brandon Jacobs, the New York duo is actually leading the total yardage battle 2,333 to 2,258 although the New Orleans pair has a 15-11 advantage in touchdowns for their higher scoring offense. I don’t know if either defense can really determine the outcome of this game so these four guys appear to hold the key because they are certain to keep their teams going up and down the field. The quarterbacks will be trying not to make the crucial mistake. Their common link might be Philip Rivers. Eli Manning was traded for him in a move that ultimately spelled the end in San Diego for Drew Brees so here we are. Brees had his record setting season put on ice last week against Washington with 207 yards and his first game without a touchdown pass since week 3. Manning has shown signs of snapping out a midseason slump by passing for 270, 172 and 282 yards the last three weeks, but after throwing 5 touchdowns without an interception the previous two games he had two go against him last week without a touchdown pass. Neither quarterback will be getting sacked very much because they haven’t all season and the defenses will be guessing too much. In the final analysis, New York has gone 0-4 against good teams at home and 3-0 against bad ones. New Orleans has reeled off 31, 31, 31 and 42 points in their last four road games. I don’t think the Giants can score with them.


New Orleans 33, NY Giants 27


Tampa Bay (3-11) @ Cleveland (4-10): pick CLE -3/over 36.5


This is a game only a player’s mother could watch. With almost every team still having a glimmer of hope to make the playoffs this one represents 25% of those not still in the race. Last week the Bucs almost pulled a colossal upset in Chicago led by Tim Rattay’s three fourth quarter touchdown passes. The end result was a 34-31 overtime loss, but it came on the heels of scoring 39 points total in their previous four games. The Browns faced arguably the other conference’s best defense on the road as well, losing 27-17 to Baltimore. They will keep Derek Anderson at quarterback and he has been fairly productive for them averaging 223 yards per game with 5 total touchdowns against 5 turnovers. Neither team should really want to win this game because it only hurts their draft position, but pride at some point kicks in. For Tampa Bay it could be tough to move the ball with timeless Mike Alstott and Michael Pittman trying to lead the running game thanks to Cadillac being garaged. The Browns have allowed at least 24 points in five straight weeks though so Rattay might be able to do some damage in the air. Cold weather usually spells bad things for Tampa Bay and the duo of Winslow and Edwards should be able to make plays down the field on their defense. Ultimately this game could go either way, but I’m not sure Tampa Bay has any fight left in them after letting one slip away on the road last week. They are 0-7 on the road and in five of those games have scored a total of two touchdowns. In Cleveland’s last home game they were able to punch past a Kansas City team with playoff aspirations.


Cleveland 24, Tampa Bay 16


Tennessee (7-7) @ Buffalo (7-7): pick TEN +4.5/over 36.5


No matter how this game turns out it is highly unlikely it will rank as the best ever between these two franchises. The distinction for that lies in their two memorable playoff meetings, one in 1992 and the other in 2000. The first was the historic comeback when the team then known as the Houston Oilers blew a 35-3 lead and lost 41-38 in overtime at Buffalo. The second was revenge in the Music City Miracle when a controversial lateral sparked a kickoff return for a touchdown with no time remaining and catapulted the Titans to a win and eventual trip to the Super Bowl. Now both teams are surprisingly still in the wild card chase making this essentially a playoff game because the loser is out. Travis Henry makes his return to Buffalo and should be well motivated to punish his old team that has been giving up lots of yards rushing. The man who took his job, Willis McGahee, also should find some room to run. Both quarterbacks are mobile, but obviously Vince Young is more dangerous than J.P. Losman. Young was shut down last week against Jacksonville, but had run for 39, 49, 69, 78 and 86 yards the previous five weeks. Losman hasn’t capitalized on his mobility this season with just 37 carries for 130 yards. He has also taken 41 sacks including at least three in 10 of his 14 starts. Lately he has been able to make the big throw, however, with 7 touchdown passes in three weeks despite throwing the ball just 71 times. Confidence is high for both teams. Buffalo is fresh off trashing the Jets 31-13 on the road and blanking Miami 21-0. Since their bye week during Halloween they have gone 5-2 with only narrow losses to AFC powers Indianapolis and San Diego. Tennessee has won five in a row and it was almost six because they let a 26-7 lead against Baltimore slip away. One thing I wonder about is Tennessee’s ability to get it done in hostile territory with the pressure on. It seemed to get to them last week against Jacksonville until the defense bailed them out. I have to go with Vince Young though because he won’t let this team lose.


Tennessee 23, Buffalo 20


Washington (5-9) @ St. Louis (6-8): pick STL -1/over 43


As crazy as things are in the NFC, the Redskins are not in the hunt for a playoff spot. They can point to four losses by a field goal or less, three on their home field, as the reason why. The Rams are still alive, but certainly won’t be wishing any Christmas cheer on Seattle kicker Josh Brown. If he had only missed two kicks against them they might be in the driver’s seat to win the West. Instead they are hoping for other teams to lose so they can sneak in at 8-8. Last week’s 20-0 win in Oakland certainly bolstered their confidence on defense after allowing 76 points in their previous two games. Washington will have a tough time keeping up with them on offense. This is a highly touted offense coming into the season under a new coordinator that has failed to reach 20 points in their last six games. St. Louis at times has had trouble cashing in touchdowns, but has scored 20+ in five of their last six. The Redskins are certain to smash Betts at this defense. He has four consecutive trips over 100 yards rushing and has averaged 157 total yards in his last four games. Those are numbers that even Pro Bowl bound Steven Jackson can’t match over that same stretch. He has five less yards after being held without a reception by the Raiders last week. With both teams having success running the ball, the tiebreaker will be the passing game. Bulger is Pro Bowl bound while Campbell is still learning how to play in the NFL. A scary statistic is that the Rams have not won at home since October 1, and after beating the Packers the following week have not beaten a team other than the two who play in the Bay Area (San Francisco and Oakland). Washington had not won a road game since September 24 in Houston until shocking the Saints in the Big Easy last week. They have played very competitive football of late, but I’ll take the high octane offense against the suspect defense rather than the one dimensional offense against the suspect defense.


St. Louis 24, Washington 20  


Arizona (4-10) @ San Francisco (6-8): pick AZ +4/under 45


When all is said and done the 49ers might look back wondering what might have happened if not for losing to these Cardinals 34-27 on opening day. As it stands their NFC West title hopes are miraculously still alive after last week’s win in Seattle snapped a three game losing streak. Arizona was supposed to be surprise team in this division, but eight losses in a row after that opening day victory put an end to that dream. Since breaking that string they are 3-2 and playing with a bit more confidence under Matt Leinart. Many believed the 49ers would have certainly drafted Leinart had he come out of USC early. Instead they landed Alex Smith. Their numbers this season are fairly comparable, but Smith had some experience under his belt last season whereas Leinart clearly has a better supporting cast. This game is going to be Arizona throwing and San Francisco running for the most part. Antonio Bryant has been suspended, leaving the 49ers with only one wide receiver that has caught more than 7 passes on the season. Frank Gore is likely to pile up his usual chunks of yardage regardless. Leinart’s passing has been fairly consistent if not spectacular. In 10 games of extensive action only twice has he failed to throw for at least 203 yards and seven of those have produced at least one touchdown pass. By comparison, Alex Smith hasn’t had that many yards passing in eight consecutive games and ten of his past 11. The 49ers were caught shell shocked after successive road losses to St. Louis and New Orleans when they lost at home to Green Bay two weeks ago. Now with extended rest following their Thursday game in Seattle I expect them to be ready. Arizona has been scoring consistently the past five weeks, but I anticipate a tougher defensive resistance this week.


San Francisco 23, Arizona 21


Cincinnati (8-6) @ Denver (8-6): pick CIN +3/over 44


This is going to be a playoff atmosphere to be sure. The Broncos seemed dead in the water in the midst of a four game losing streak before pummeling Arizona 37-20 last week. The Bengals have done just the opposite as their four game winning streak was snapped in a decisive 34-16 loss at Indianapolis. Has the momentum shifted for each team? It probably has not because the competition was about as different as it gets. Denver is hoping Jay Cutler can mature in a hurry at quarterback and the numbers support his development. He has two touchdown passes in each game combined with increasing yardage totals of 143, 188 and 261. Tatum Bell needs to be healthy enough to keep this offense in balance and put Carson Palmer in a holding pattern on the sidelines. Cincinnati’s defense has been more susceptible to the pass than the run, but it remains to be seen if Cutler can take advantage of that weakness. Javon Walker has been by far their biggest threat down the field and he is banged up. Rod Smith can’t separate anymore and is probably playing his final season of football. When trying to match scores with a prolific offense you need to have multiple players capable of big gains. The Bengals will get their points. In half of their games they have scored at least 27 and their average is 23.8 per game. The Broncos are having trouble stopping anyone of late. Throwing out a game holding the inept Oakland offense to 13 points they have given up 19+ in seven straight. I think Palmer is leading a more confident team that is more capable of scoring. Denver will be fired up at home, but it won’t be enough.


Cincinnati 28, Denver 26


San Diego (12-2) @ Seattle (8-6): pick SD -4/under 46.5


It is hard to call a road game against a team leading their division a “trap” game, but I think this qualifies. The Chargers are sitting on the #1 seed, but have already clinched the AFC West. The Seahawks need to win this game or their division title could rest on their ability to win in Tampa Bay next week. One player who should be motivated for Seattle is Shaun Alexander after Ladainian Tomlinson broke his touchdown record set just last year. It will be tough because the Chargers are among the league’s best in running the ball and stopping the run. Seattle is floundering of late having just lost to Arizona and San Francisco. The Chargers have not lost since October 22 and that loss was to Kansas City, a team they beat last week 20-9. Their defense hasn’t been impenetrable, having allowed 19+ in eight of their last ten games, but when the offense is averaging 31.8 points per game it hardly matters. An area of concern might be Rivers at quarterback as he hits a bit of a wall towards the end of his first season as the starter. Three of his last four starts have produced just 1 touchdown combined against 4 turnovers with an average of 130 yards passing. His opposite number Hasselbeck has been inconsistent before and after missing four games due to injury. Four times he has thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in 10 games, but five times he has turned it over at least twice and three times he has no touchdown passes. Their offense hasn’t taken advantage of their talent because injuries have prevented them from getting extensive time together. Leading receiver Darrell Jackson will be out this week leaving Deion Branch to carry the load. Branch has failed to make a big splash since joining the team though and has just two games with more than 4 receptions or 61 yards receiving. I fail to see how Seattle can begin to score with San Diego. Their defense has been steady, but six teams in a row have posted at least 20 on them. The Chargers will comfortably get past that number and let their defense do the rest.


San Diego 27, Seattle 19


Philadelphia (8-6) @ Dallas (9-5): pick PHI +7/under 47


The Eagles refuse to give up on their season, but even after winning three in a row still have some work to do if they want to make the playoffs. The Cowboys catch a break with two extra days of rest following their Saturday win over Atlanta gave them five win in six weeks. Either Dallas is going to clinch the division title or Philadelphia is going to be a win over those Falcons away from winning it. The common thread has been an unexpected quarterback coming off the bench. For Dallas it has been Tony Romo in the most surprising run to the Pro Bowl in league history. He has been productive though, throwing for at least 226 yards in nine straight games including one he didn’t even start. Jeff Garcia finally threw an interception last week, but in four starts has thrown 8 touchdown passes. The Philadelphia defense hasn’t played particularly well, but the offense has bailed them out. Five weeks in a row they have given up at least 19 points and the Dallas offense can certainly make them pay. Dallas has had defensive issues as well starting with getting dismantled by New Orleans two weeks ago and coupled with their win over Atlanta they have allowed 70 points in two weeks. I expect a lot of scoring on Christmas. Westbrook has not failed to gain 100 total yards since October 15 while the Cowboys have two running backs capable of hurting the Eagles who have certainly had their difficulties stopping the run. Both teams have some momentum, but I think the extra rest plus home field is just the boost Dallas needs to get them the win.


Dallas 26, Philadelphia 20


NY Jets (8-6) @ Miami (6-8): pick MIA -2/under 37


Another MNF double header is capped off by a game with playoff implications in the AFC wild card race. New England might have the division title wrapped up, and depending on what other teams do Miami is likely to be out of the playoff hunt. That could take a bit of the shine off what otherwise should be a tightly contested game. The difference between these teams this season has been a 20-17 New York win two months ago. If the Dolphins are pushing for a playoff spot last week’s 21-0 loss in Buffalo was a poor way to follow up a 21-0 win over division leading New England. The Jets have also been bitten by the Bills who are the only team to beat them in the last four weeks. New York will be faced with their third road game out of four, having fared well away from the Meadowlands of late. Their last three have produced wins with only 14, 10 and 13 points allowed. A big boost could come from the return of Ronnie Brown for Miami’s running game. Their defense can certainly contain New York. The Jets are fairly predictable on offense. Coles and Cotchery at wide receiver present their only real threats. Because they have no consistent lead rusher Pennington has had to throw a lot of passes. Six straight weeks he has at least 31 pass attempts which is one reason he has 20 turnovers on the season. Against this defense that could turn into a serious problem. Harrington is also prone to turnovers and has also been asked to throw quite a few passes. Until last week’s 5/17 performance he had thrown at least 29 passes and averaged 39.6 attempts. This week the key might be limiting him to 20-25 throws and letting Brown or Morris move the ball on the ground. New York really doesn’t have that option, and I like Miami’s defense much better. It has been a great run for the Jets, but regardless of what the records say I don’t think they are the better team here.


Miami 20, NY Jets 16 

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