Breaking down the ninth week.

Atlanta (5-2) @ Detroit (1-6): pick ATL -5/under 48

If there was a dictionary entry for the term "trap game" this would be a prime example. The Falcons just won two high scoring affairs against AFC North teams who were in last year's playoffs and now gets the NFC North doormats. However, the Lions have been able to put points on the board since week 3 with an average of 23.8 although they went 1-4 in those games. That's because the same defense that held the defending NFC champs to three field goals on opening day is giving up an even 30 since. Will this be another high scoring game? It could be. Neither team has done much to stop the passing game and very quietly Jon Kitna is on pace to throw for 4,253 yards. That's a lot. The Lions haven't won because they can't run the ball well and Kitna's TD/turnover ratio is just 9/12.I think Atlanta will go back to the run here, but Detroit will make it interesting through the air. If this was the Thanksgiving Day game I might be smelling upset turkey.

Atlanta 27, Detroit 20

Cincinnati (4-3) @ Baltimore (5-2): pick BAL -3/under 42

No one really expected this to be the game that would determine the fate of the NFC North, but here we are. The Ravens can really take control of the division with a victory even if they have two dates with Pittsburgh and a road game against these Bengals in primetime still on the ledger. Conversely, for as inconsistent as Cincinnati has been this season, they can move into a first place tie with a 3-0 division record. Then challengers Baltimore and Pittsburgh will have to win in Cincinnati if they want to make any sort of move. In other words, this is a very big game. Last week Jamal Lewis ran like it was 2003 and you can expect Billick to employ a similar strategy here, putting the game on his defense. Carson Palmer was extremely ordinary in October, throwing for between 240-266 yards in all four games, three of them losses. He had no interceptions, but lost 3 fumbles while throwing for 5 scores. For Cincinnati to win he needs to be the catalyst. This Raven defense is not likely to allow that to happen. There is also a clear line between winning and losing for Cincinnati this season. When Rudi Johnson carried 19+ times the team won all 4 games, but during their 3 losses he had 14, 17 and 12 rushes. This is the #1 run defense in the NFL with just 66.0 yards allowed per game. It is not set up for the Bengals to pull this out, although I would not be surprised if they did.

Baltimore 18, Cincinnati 14

Dallas (4-3) @ Washington (2-5): pick DAL -3/over 40.5

The Redskins must have been shaking their heads while watching their hated rivals enjoying a rebirth on national television this past Sunday Night. Romo's huge fourth quarter for Dallas probably saved the season and now the task changes to driving the final nail in Washington's coffin. Coming into the season the Redskins had reason for optimism with a new offensive coordinator, free agent receivers to make plays and one of the best defensive schemes in the NFL. A funny thing happened on the way to the division title though. Their defense has been shredded and the offense has been more famine than feast. Losing at home to Tennessee is really the telling game of their season. Now it is down to beating a Dallas team that has already thumped them 27-10 or stare down a 2-6 record with trips to Philadelphia and Tampa Bay followed by visits from Carolina, Atlanta and Philadelphia. This could spiral into a 3-10 start if they aren't careful. Paging Jason Campbell, we need a starting quarterback. He isn't ready? Why not? Tony Romo might not have appeared ready either, but the Redskins need a change. This is their final shot for 2006. Gibbs might want to dance with the guy closest to his age, but I say give the young gun a shot before this game is over. Since it is a rivalry game it probably stays close. Dallas should be able to get the ball to Owens, Glenn and Witten at will though so I can't see them losing.

Dallas 28, Washington 17

Green Bay (3-4) @ Buffalo (2-5): pick GB +4/under 42

Don't look now but the Packers are almost a .500 team. Their opposition for the next few weeks will be stiff so they should enjoy competing while they can. On the other side of the field Buffalo is just trying to score some points. A 14.3 average is not going to get it done. With a season high of 20 I wonder if they can hold Favre under that number to get the win. Green Bay has gotten there in five of seven games, going 3-2. Defensively they are terrible, but most of the damage has come in the air. Can J.P. Losman take advantage of their secondary? Willis McGahee has had an incredibly ordinary season running the ball, averaging 3.6 per carry or less in 5 games. He also hasn't been busting long runs with a season best of 32 and nothing over 21 aside from that. Nevertheless, it is a home game and typically they bring their "A" effort, especially on defense. Given a bye week to prepare I believe it is a low scoring game determined by a few big plays. Since the Bills have no one capable of making them, they won't win.

Green Bay 20, Buffalo 17

Houston (2-5) @ NY Giants (5-2): pick NYG -12.5/under 43

New York is quietly trying to get some separation atop the NFC East. They should also be worried about overlooking the Texans because of the huge tilt next with against Chicago, a game so big NBC stole it from FOX for the national broadcast. Where the Giants have really turned their season around with the four game winning streak is defense. It hasn't always been pretty, but the results are there. Not since opening night has an opposing team scored a touchdown in the Meadowlands, and their last two road games produced solid second half efforts on defense. Enter a flailing Houston offense that has finally gained a little momentum while scoring 27 and 22 the past two weeks. The only problem is that last week it took going to backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels for them to score three second half touchdowns. Houston's next problem is stopping anyone on the road. While going 0-3 they have allowed 43, 34 and 28 points. New York is far from a team that can just show up and dominate, but clearly with a little focus can win comfortably here.

NY Giants 28, Houston 13

Kansas City (4-3) @ St. Louis (4-3): pick KC +3/over 48

If there is a team that knows a little about an injury to Trent Green sparking an offense it has to be the Rams. Once upon a time he was "their guy". We all know what Rodney Harrison's exhibition shot to the knee did to him, and suddenly Damon Huard is Kansas City's version of Kurt Warner. In 6 starts he has put up numbers equivalent to 3,560 yards for a full season of work, capped by last week's 312 in a big 35-28 win over Seattle. If there is a chink in his armor it is fumbling because although he has just 1 interception in 188 attempts he does have 5 lost fumbles. His opposite number Marc Bulger is experiencing much better luck protecting the ball. Even while being sacked twice as much (22 to 11) and throwing more passes (248) he has only 3 total turnovers and just one the entire month of October. Four times he has been over 300 yards passing, but the past two have resulted in high scoring losses. Both teams have a rusher capable of keeping things balanced. Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson each have over 600 yards rushing on the season, with LJ ready to burst over 1,000 total yards following his past two game explosion (342) where he scored 6 times. Considering that St. Louis has the lesser of the two defenses it would seem Kansas City has the advantage in this battleof Missouri. However, the Chiefs have struggled mightily on the road, getting throttled 45-7 in Pittsburgh the last time they were out of town. Last week was the first time a team had beaten the Rams by more than a touchdown all season, but that was in San Diego. Looks like a tossup, and I have to go with the better conference.

Kansas City 38, St. Louis 37

Miami (1-6) @ Chicago (7-0): pick CHI -13/under 38

Forget all the talk about this being reminiscent of 1985 when the 11-0 Bears went down to Florida for a Marino led whooping which turned out to be their only loss. This one is in Soldier Field without the lights of MNF against a badly struggling team. With all the talk of parity, Chicago has turned in 5 wins by at least 26 points this season. That's two points more than Miami has scored in any game. In fact, the Dolphins finally put up more than 17 in their 34-24 loss to Green Bay two weeks ago. The two week break has given them time to figure out who they will blame for their defeat. About the only bright spot for them is Joey Harrington's familiarity with playing this Bear defense, but that's not going to help unless you count being ready to absorb monstrous hits. Things are so fouled up for the Miami passing game that stud Chris Chambers is fourth in receiving yards, has scored just 3 times and has a paltry 10.7 average per reception. After a horrific six turnover game in Arizona, Rex Grossman corrected himself nicely against the porous 49er defenes and is now on pace for 3,746 yards passing with 30 touchdowns. Considering that he entered this season with 1,303 yards and 4 touchdowns during three injury riddled seasons (8 games) I'd say that's pretty good. It really isn't a matter of how, it's a matter of how much. The Bears should break their will early and coast.

Chicago 28, Miami 6

New Orleans (5-2) @ Tampa Bay (2-5): pick NO +2/under 38

If the Saints want to be a legit playoff contender, these are the types of games they absolutely need to win. Amazingly, Bruce Gradkowski gets his second start against them in his rookie campaign which began when he lost a 24-21 decision in the Big Easy. It easily could have gone the other way after he helped the Bucs pile up 406 total yards and a 21-17 advantage only to see Reggie Bush score his only touchdown to date on a long punt return. With the change of venue I expect more defense and a Tampa Bay team ready to play. Since their opening 27-0 home loss to Baltimore they have been very competitive on their turf. Throw out last week's windy 17-3 defeat at the Giants, and count on the offense to muster up a better effort. For the Saints it boils down to shaking off a poor effort in losing 35-22 to the Ravens despite 383 yards passing from Brees who has 658 and six touchdowns in his past two starts. He probably won't have that kind of success against a secondary with Ronde Barber in it, but he shouldn't have to. The Bucs can't stop the run so with McAllister and Bush on board the game plan should be simple. If that goes wrong, then Brees can be turned loose with super rookie Marques Colston ready to make a few plays. This is the year for New Orleans, and I think Sean Payton has them ready to log their third road win after getting just three total victories all of last year.

New Orleans 17, Tampa Bay 16

Tennessee (2-5) @ Jacksonville (4-3): pick JAX -9/over 37

It is easy to see why Jack Del Rio would bench Leftwich in favor of Garrard. When a guy goes 14/28 for 125 yards while getting crushed 27-7 in Houston, why not hand the team over to Garrard who completed 10/17 for 87 yards during an ugly 13-6 win in Philadelphia? The point is that this isn't a statistical decision in the purest sense. Neither guy turned the ball over during those games, but Garrard got the win. Now he has the chance to hijack this team because next week they get the horrid Texans again with a chance at revenge. Presumably at 6-3 the Jags will then face the New York Giants in a game where Garrard's play should determine if he stays atop the depth chart. Hopefully Jacksonville isn't overlooking the Titans the way I am because they are getting pesky. Even with the worst defense and one of the worst offenses in the NFL they have now won two in a row under Vince Young. Incidentally, a battle between two black starting quarterbacks is no longer a story. The big question is which Travis Henry will show up for this game. His two week mid-October road trip featured 51 carries for 301 yards (5.9 average) but in his other three starts he carried it 45 times for only 111 (2.5 average). I'm guessing the latter against this tough Jaguar front line. I also expect them to spy Vince Young's runs and really make his life miserable. Thus far he has overshadowed his poor outings through the air (106, 63, 87) with rushing yardage (24, 43, 44) but not this week. Jacksonville's staggering might not be over so anything can happen. I believe the backfield of Taylor and Jones-Drew combined with this defense is enough to turn this into a rout.

Jacksonville 31, Tennessee 9

Minnesota (4-3) @ San Francisco (2-5): pick MIN -4/over 42.5

The Vikings are still very much a contender in the NFC wild card race and last week's 31-7 throttling at the hands of New England is more an indication of conference strength. If they can go up to Qwest Field as they did two weeks ago and dismantle defending NFC champion Seattle 31-13 I see no reason why the 49ers will give them difficulties. Even if San Francisco typically ramps it up at home regardless of the opposition, San Diego laid down a blueprint three weeks ago during a 48-19 thrashing at Monster Park. Rivers tore them up with 334 yards passing and when it came time to cash in Tomlinson scored 4 touchdowns. This Viking team doesn't have the same level of talent offensively, but they do bring the #2 run defense to town hoping to force Alex Smith to the air. The second year quarterback has had a mildly successful season to this point, tossing a touchdown in all but one start after having just one all of 2005. However, after throwing no interceptions and fumbling just once in his opening three games he has 8 turnovers the past four weeks. It was an uncharacteristic three turnover day that got Brad Johnson benched on MNF. His three picks left his TD/turnover ratio at an awful 4/12 on the season. His two turnover free games were wins and the team is 2-1 when he turns it over just once, one of those being a tough 19-16 loss to Chicago. This is not a San Francisco defense that scares anyone so I think you know what to expect. When a team has already given up 34, 38, 41, 48 and 41 before the season is half over it might be time for some adjustments. I don't see how the 49ers can score with Minnesota if Chester Taylor controls the action when the Vikings have the ball and the Williams duo holds Frank Gore in check when the 49ers do. Somehow it ends up close.

Minnesota 27, San Francisco 22

Cleveland (2-5) @ San Diego (5-2): pick SD -13/over 41

The Chargers begin temporary life without Merriman, and I don't expect it to impact them in this game. That's because the Browns have a lot of trouble moving the football. Both times the team scored more than 17 points (24 and 20) they won the game, including last week against the Jets when their defense played extremely well. Unfortunately, San Diego has a better game plan on offense and that Tomlinson guy running the ball. They will be satisfied running all day long with LT and then Michael Turner while their defense terrorizes Frye and company. That duo already has 979 yards rushing with 11 touchdowns on the season. Very quietly Kellen Winslow Jr. is leading the Browns in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Naturally he will be fired up to play where his father carved up a Hall of Fame career and on the same field with a potential HOF tight end on the opposite sideline in Antonio Gates. His trash talk might be justified up to this point, because since Brees left town Winslow actually has the edge in yards (393-384) over Gates. However, this Cleveland offense has only a subpar running back and limited wide receiver options. They are going to get swamped, Merriman or not.

San Diego 33, Cleveland 9

Denver (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (2-5): pick DEN +3/under 36.5

The Broncos have an opportunity to essentially finish off the Steelers and gain a measure of revenge for getting beaten by them 34-17 in last year's AFC title game. For Pittsburgh to avoid it, Roethlisberger will have to find a way not to turn the ball over multiple times. Four times this season he has and the team is 0-4 in those games. He had none while going 16/19 against Kansas City in a 45-7 win and just one fumble in their gut wrenching 41-38 overtime loss in Atlanta while completing 16/22. If there is another edge, it is that Denver's invincible defense finally gave up a touchdown prior to the fourth quarter. Peyton Manning carved them up, but this is obviously not the type of offense to mirror that effort. Instead they will hope to play the field position game, waiting to make a big play late. Denver's glimmer of hope comes in the form of their own offense waking up to finally score over 17 points. They hadn't been required to after a five game winning streak where the defense allowed 6, 7, 3, 3 and 7 points respectively. This has the makings of a defensive struggle as the Steelers cling to their slim hopes of defending the title in the playoffs. In the end I think you find a tombstone on their season because the Broncos are simply a better team. Even without their best Bell running the ball they still have a much better running game so they beat the Steelers playing their own style of football. Ironic and hard to swallow for the Heinz Field faithful.

Denver 17, Pittsburgh 13

Indianapolis (7-0) @ New England (6-1): pick NE -3/over 48

In a week where I expect a lot of road teams to do well, this is an exception. Last year Peyton Manning got over the Foxborough hump leading his Colts to a rout, but that was against a beat up Patriot defense in the midst of a terrible slump. This is a group allowing just 12.4 points per game, and no more than 13 since allowing 17 in each of their first three games. The opposition has been suspect, but the game plan against Manning has worked in the past. I see no reason to believe it won't again. On offense the Patriots also have a dangerous rookie in Laurence Maroney, giving them two guns to fire at a weak Indy front line giving up a league worst 167.9 yards per game on the ground. Conversely, as nicely as the "other" rookie Addai has filled in for free agent departure James, coupling with Rhodes for 746 yards rushing, it won't happen against this defense. James was known for punishing them, neither guy has that ability. It will be up to Manning who has yet to prove he can match Tom Brady when it matters the most. Even with tight end Watson leading the team in receiving Brady has managed 14 touchdown passes and thrown for 1,598 yards in a game less than half a season. If Plummer can wreck this defense, I don't envision the Patriots punting very much if at all. One or two breaks of Manning should do the trick.

New England 33, Indianapolis 24

Oakland (2-5) @ Seattle (4-3): pick SEA -7/over 37

The Raiders finally showed some pride in winning two home games consecutively. Now it is back to reality on the road where they have lost by 22, 14 and 10 this season. They will be playing without one of their more reliable offensive linemen when Barry Sims sits out. This is bad news for a team struggling to maintain blocks going up against a dangerous defense in very hostile territory under the MNF lights. Andrew Walter has been less than spectacular this season with a 49.0 QB rating and just 3 touchdown passes to go along with 14 turnovers and 28 sacks absorbed. LaMont Jordan will not be around to grind the defense either. This is really a mismatch which should be over by halftime. The only thing the Raiders have going for them is their own underappreciated defense, ranked #8 in yards allowed. Let's see how well they travel though because even a Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris led Seahawk offense put up 28 last week in Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs. Strangely enough the team doesn't seem to lose much with Wallace who must be gaining confidence by the snap. Shaun Alexander might be ready next week and that should be enough motivation for them not to overlook the Raiders.

Seattle 28, Oakland 10