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Wednesday, July 18 2018

NFL Predictions 2006: Week 17


Closing up shop for the season.


NY Giants (7-8) @ Washington (5-10): pick NYG -1.5/over 42


The Redskins will have a lot of additional fans for their season finale. Every time they score people in Green Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and St. Louis will cheer. That’s because their 7-8 teams look to stay alive in the playoff race with a New York loss. The Giants want to win and keep the scenario fairly simple between themselves and the Packers who with a win can force a strength of victory tiebreaker that could make otherwise meaningless games meaningful. On November 5 it appeared like an NFC East title was in their future following a fifth straight win to put them at 6-2. The defense had started playing well in allowing only one of those five teams to exceed 14 points, a streak started against these same Redskins with a 19-3 victory. Then Chicago embarrassed them on SNF 38-20 leading to a four game losing streak with every team hitting for at least 23. A 27-13 victory over flailing Carolina stopped the bleeding, but in the last two weeks they have allowed 36 and 30 in losses. This is music to the ears of young quarterback Jason Campbell who finally put the offense together in a 37-31 defeat last week in St. Louis. It broke a string of six straight games failing to score 20 for Washington. The catalyst again was Ladell Betts who ran his streak of games with 100 yards to five, averaging 135.6 yards rushing and 22.8 receiving over that stretch. More impressively he has carried it 27.2 times per outing. He will give the New York defense fits. Then there is Tiki Barber who certainly doesn’t want to go out like this. His last two games have produced 75 and 71 yards rushing with a combined 41 yards receiving. Despite needing just 131 total yards to go over 2,000 he hasn’t been able to carry his team in enough games to secure a playoff spot. This is his shot against a Washington defense ranked #30 overall. In recent weeks the Redskins have been a competitive team going 3-5 since entering their bye week on a three game losing streak. Three of the losses were by six points or less with a stunning 16-10 victory in New Orleans two weeks ago. Even if it ruins a lot of playoff dreams and turns off a lot of the drama I can’t see Barber not getting over on this defense. Betts will do the same, but Eli gives the Giants a better chance to move the chains on crucial third downs. Even if it doesn’t erase a bad season he plays more like his brother in this one.


NY Giants 23, Washington 20


Carolina (7-8) @ New Orleans (10-5): pick NO +3/under 38


The Panthers have gone from the trendy pick to win the NFC to completely out of the playoffs. A four game losing streak starting Thanksgiving weekend will do that. Even their win in Atlanta last week couldn’t save their season. The Saints are the beneficiary of their fall and became the fourth different team to win the NFC South in the past four seasons. The offense has been riding high most of the year and now the defense has been joining the fun. In their last five games no team has scored more than 17 against them. In a weak conference it has been enough to guarantee a bye in the playoffs regardless of this game’s outcome. Surely some players will be rested, and the Panthers could take advantage with their running game rounding into form. Foster and Williams combined for 49 carries last week and 180 yards rushing. The Saints aren’t stout in run defense, and Carolina will also benefit from the return of Louisiana native Jake Delhomme at quarterback. I expect a lot of running from both teams as they just try to get the game over with. The Panthers are likely to put up a proud effort even if they are out of it. Still, New Orleans has a lot of offense and Carolina has had their difficulties scoring touchdowns even before Delhomme got hurt. I have to take the Saints in this exhibition.


New Orleans 20, Carolina 16


Cleveland (4-11) @ Houston (5-10): pick HOU -3.5/under 37.5


As poorly as the Texans have played this season, a home win over a similarly bad team can put them at 4-4 in the second half with two close losses. The Browns have taken a good whipping the last three weeks by 15, 10 and 20 points giving them five losses by more than one score on the season. The odd part about their year is that three of their four wins are against teams with playoff aspirations into the final weekend. Right now I have to think they have packed it in. If they were going to play tough, last week at home against Tampa Bay was the time. Instead Cleveland improved their draft position by losing to a 3-11 team and now could draft as high as third. It won’t be a quarterback they take because Derek Anderson has at least given them something to ponder while Charlie Frye still has the team’s confidence. If only they could settle down Edwards and Winslow their passing game might flourish. A lead runner could solve some problems so perhaps Adrian Peterson will be the choice. Houston famously passed on running back last year and while Ron Dayne isn’t making people forget about Reggie Bush he certainly has had a December to remember. In four games he has run the ball 89 times for 429 yards (4.82 average) and 5 touchdowns. A week after facing the worst run defense he now faces the #30 unit. He should be able to help the Texans control this game and keep the heat off Carr’s miserable month. Last week’s 163 yards passing was his most since Thanksgiving weekend and he had his first touchdown pass since then. He has only two in his last nine starts. If anyone is wondering what Houston will do in the first round, quarterback is the answer. A year too late for Vince Young, but they need a change. It won’t matter in this game though.


Houston 24, Cleveland 13


Detroit (2-13) @ Dallas (9-6): pick DAL -11.5/over 43.5


This is the perfect opponent for the Cowboys. They still have an outside shot at the NFC East title so their starters will be on the field, but their opponent is in contention for the #1 pick in the draft so their motivation won’t be too high on the road. It should be an ideal situation for them to work out all that has ailed them in the last three weeks. Or will it? Mike Martz has to be salivating while drawing up plays against their secondary which has been destroyed of late. Kitna has an NFL high 30 turnovers, but with 98 yards passing will go over 4,000 on the season. He has done it on the back of Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, the latter of which leads the team with 87 receptions and 5 touchdowns. All of this production from a guy who wasn’t drafted out of Northern Iowa and now makes the team look even dumber for continuing to pour first round picks into the position. Working against Detroit is their one dimensional offense without Kevin Jones. The Cowboys should blitz Kitna into a few bad decisions and turnovers. The Cowboys haven’t done enough running lately and need to keep Jones or Barber active. The rotation has created a situation where neither player really dominates an opponent. Romo has come down to Earth in December with 7 interceptions in four games against 4 touchdown passes. He has also taken 3 sacks in each of his last two games. If Owens wants to be involved early and often this is the week to shut him up because the Falcons aren’t likely to help their cause by beating the Eagles so the team might as well play fast and loose. That will help them immensely and the Lions should ruin themselves with turnovers.


Dallas 31, Detroit 17


Jacksonville (8-7) @ Kansas City (8-7): pick KC -1/over 36


In the NFC these teams might have their destiny in their own hands. Instead the victor probably takes their winning record to the golf course. The Jaguars really have only themselves to blame for losing twice to Houston and to Washington. If you want to make the playoffs don’t lose to teams with double digit losses. The Chiefs have played a cleaner schedule, but got caught four weeks ago in allowing Cleveland to come back and beat them 31-28. Losses to tough Baltimore and San Diego followed and a win at Oakland kept their pulse going for a playoff berth. What these teams really want to do is show they haven’t given up. Kansas City thrived earlier in the year largely on the strength of a 4-0 mark against the NFC West that landed them at 5-3. They are 3-4 since. Likewise Jacksonville was 3-1 against the NFC East and 6-4 when that set finished up. They are 2-3 since although for the season their only defeat by more than a touchdown was a 27-7 setback in Houston back in week 7. In this game both teams will want to run. The Jaguars should find the going a little easier, especially if Fred Taylor is able to return from injury to help out Rookie of the Year candidate Maurice Jones-Drew. Jacksonville’s #3 run defense is trying to hold together after four linemen have been placed on IR and with two more on this week’s injury report. Larry Johnson won’t run right at them either and is deadly on the screen pass. If the scoring picks up you can expect the edge to sway towards Kansas City. David Garrard simply doesn’t have the weapons and thus far has not thrown for 250 yards in nine games. Trent Green will be trying to salvage a lost season in which only one of his six comeback starts has been productive. He threw for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns during the Cleveland loss. He has just 2 touchdowns and an average of 154.8 yards in his other starts although we have all seen what the offense can do when it is clicking. Perhaps they are missing their coordinator Saunders though because even with 5 games scoring at least 28 points, they have been held to 10 or less on six other occasions making this an erratic attack. The trump card is really Arrowhead Stadium. Bookend losses are one thing, but the team won the middle five games of their home schedule. Jacksonville is just 2-5 on the road with one of the wins coming in nearby Miami. They will give it a fight as they always do, but the Chiefs will pull it out.


Kansas City 22, Jacksonville 16


New England (11-4) @ Tennessee (8-7): pick NE +3/under 42


There are a few idiots out there who think Vince Young might have the Titans in the playoffs if he had started the season. I have no doubt in my mind that he came onto the scene in the perfect situation at 0-3. Things couldn’t get any worse and the pressure was at an all time low. The circumstances fit perfectly into his loose style of play. After two more losses he started the team’s improbable run. It won’t end in the playoffs without a lot of help. Still, he has made believers out of anyone who doubted the team choosing him over Leinart and Cutler at #3 in the draft. Five weeks in a row he has led them to wins by no more than 6 points and will now try to do it against the NFL’s team of this decade. How Tennessee is still alive in the tough AFC with a defense giving up an NFL high 366.7 yards per game is still a mystery to me. It isn’t their #27 ranked offense either and especially not Young leading them to a #30 ranking in pass offense. Must be the intangibles, and I’m not sure that flies against a sound team like the Patriots. New England is fresh off putting the Jaguars on the brink of playoff elimination and the only question here is whether or not their starters play the whole game. There has been talk of Belichick sitting out some players but that might not happen since the Colts have their game later in the afternoon. A loss by Indianapolis coupled with a Patriot win puts New England at #3 and puts San Diego likely off the radar in the divisional round. I think quietly New England is motivated not to let this rookie beat them. Other teams have let Young run wild. The exception is another good defense in the form of Jacksonville. In two games he ran the ball 8 times for 18 yards and was sacked 4 times. The Patriots have the linebackers to force him into throwing the ball. While he has made some crucial throws during their 7-2 run he isn’t likely to start matching scores with Tom Brady who is faced with a much less imposing defense. Even if New England rests some players they still want to win this game and Young won’t make them look bad.


New England 20, Tennessee 17


Oakland (2-13) @ NY Jets (9-6): pick OAK +12.5/under 34


Earlier this decade these teams had some meaningful late season games and playoff battles. Both fell off the map, and now the Jets have returned to the playoff picture while the Raiders have fallen into a black hole. Defense wins championships, but Oakland has no offense to go along with it. As a result even allowing their last five teams to score 20-27 points has put them in too big of a hole during what has been an eight game losing streak overall. The offense has failed to produce more than 14 points since their first win of the year on October 22. That was three major holidays ago. New York’s defense has largely been responsible for their improbable wild card run. They entered the bye at 4-4 following a disappointing 20-13 loss in Cleveland. Only once since then have they allowed more than 14 points to be scored on them, losing 31-13 to Buffalo and 10-0 to Chicago during their 5-2 push. Their home field has produced just a 3-4 record this season, but it should hurt the Raiders as much as it helps them. Oakland is tired and defeated. They aren’t rivals with the Jets so there isn’t much joy in knocking them out as there might have been if the opponent was Pittsburgh, Kansas City or Denver. This is going to be a methodical game. The Jets will struggle on offense as they have a lot of times this season. Seven times they have failed to score over 17 points, going 2-5 in those games. They have no lead rusher to speak of and neither Coles nor Cotchery will scare Oakland’s secondary. It boils down to limiting mistakes and waiting for the Raiders to make the crucial error. Eventually they will and the result will be the ugliest game of the day.


NY Jets 12, Oakland 6


Pittsburgh (7-8) @ Cincinnati (8-7): pick PIT +6/over 43


Last year on this field these teams staged the opening game of what would be a Super Bowl run for the Steelers. This season the last two champions of the AFC North are left to pick up the pieces on a lost season. Yes the Bengals still have life, but it is dim at this point. They are as much motivated by sticking their rivals with a losing record as finishing with a winning record of their own. Pittsburgh might be trying to send Bill Cowher out on a high note if in fact he is retiring as head coach. When the Steelers look back on this season they will no doubt point to losses in the final game of each month as a big reason for their demise. First was a home 28-20 loss to these Bengals in a game they led midway through the fourth quarter but couldn’t close out. Then came a disastrous 20-13 defeat in Oakland when Roethlisberger threw two interceptions returned for touchdowns. Finally it was a 27-0 rout in Baltimore that showed just how far they had fallen. Those Ravens are the only team to beat Pittsburgh in their last seven though, and not since that October 29 showing against the Raiders have they otherwise failed to score 20 points on offense. For Cincinnati, it was a season lost on a botched snap last week in Denver. The 24-23 loss was their fourth by six points or less. Losing 14-13 at Tampa Bay was another crusher. This game is a matter of Cincinnati’s offense against Pittsburgh’s defense really. Rudi Johnson was bottled up the first time around against the Steelers although he has been a workhorse over the last three games with 82 carries for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns. Pittsburgh counters with Willie Parker who has failed to catch a ball out of the backfield in three games and had just 3 receptions in the previous two weeks. He certainly needs to be active if they want to stay in this one. Roethlisberger’s midseason production push has given way to five mediocre efforts thanks in part to playing Baltimore twice and Monte Kiffin’s Bucs. Palmer is coming off his ninth game with multiple touchdown passes. I expect this to be a high scoring game, but not just because the offenses will score. These quarterbacks have combined for 81 sacks and 44 turnovers on the season. That should make for some scoring on defense and short fields to work with. Ultimately I think Cincinnati still thinks they have a shot and in their stadium I will take the better offense.


Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 24


Seattle (8-7) @ Tampa Bay (4-11): pick SEA +3.5/under 37


This game has no bearing on the playoff picture, but don’t tell that to the Seahawks. They have turned into the butt of a few jokes by stumbling to the NFC West title with three losses in a row. Even after nearly beating San Diego last week they still want to avoid another loss heading into their home playoff game next week. Tampa Bay is just trying to finish strong and has played well on the road the last two weeks. First they rode Rattay’s late game heroics into overtime before falling 34-31 to Chicago then they rode the defense to a 22-7 win in Cleveland with the only points coming on a defensive touchdown by the Browns. Now that Tampa Bay has signed Simms to a two year contract this is likely Tim Rattay’s last shot to prove he belongs in an open quarterback competition next summer. He has really only stood out in that one quarter against the Bears though, and his only help in the running game has to come in the form of retiring Mike Alstott and just about finished Michael Pittman. The duo pounded out 38 carries for 142 yards against the Browns last week, but this defense likely won’t be as kind although I expect Gruden to employ the same offensive strategy to keep the clock moving and game close. It is unclear if the Seahawks are going to rest players at this point. If they do it makes sense, especially on offense where seemingly every player has lost time with an injury this season. On the other hand, they could use this game to establish an offensive rhythm heading into the playoffs. Kiffin’s defense will be well prepared and get them in the mood for things to come. I think Wallace and Morris played pretty well when they were in the backfield for Seattle, so either way I believe they win this game.


Seattle 16, Tampa Bay 14


St. Louis (7-8) @ Minnesota (6-9): pick STL -1/under 43


With their wild card dreams dashed the Rams can instead shoot for a .500 finish. The Vikings can try to figure out how to turn a few of their close losses into wins in 2007. Six times they lost by six points or less and they were 3-6 in games decided by that margin. Tarvaris Jackson will be getting more experience at quarterback. He will try to keep a sputtering offense on pace with the Rams who have shown the ability to move the ball up the field at will. St. Louis has Steven Jackson at the center of their attack and with Martz no longer calling the plays he had a breakout season. His increased workload led to carrying the ball 321 times and catching 88 passes. The previous two seasons produced only 388 carries and 62 receptions meaning essentially his activity doubled. He will have a tough time running against the #1 Minnesota run defense, but should be able to make an impact in the passing game. Holt and Bruce are certain to make plays as well. The flip side of this is the Vikings running Chester Taylor at a weak St. Louis front line. Both teams will be down since they are out of the hunt. Nothing will stop the Ram offense though and the home team won’t be able to match scores with them.


St. Louis 23, Minnesota 19


Atlanta (7-8) @ Philadelphia (9-6): pick PHI -8/under 43


In the middle of the season many would have thought the Eagles and not the Falcons would be the team having nothing to play for. Instead Atlanta has seen their year unravel in the wake of four consecutive home losses. They are 4-3 on the road and facing a Philadelphia team trying to capture the NFC East title in surprising fashion. After rampaging through the division on a 3-0 road trip the Eagles return home on a four game winning streak. Their offense has posted at least 21 points in five straight and defensively they are doing just enough to get the job done. Atlanta has a chance to stay in the game with their punishing ground game, but if Philadelphia gets the early jump it is likely they will abandon that game plan. Vick has done most of his damage running the ball this year while piling up a record 1,022 yards rushing. He has only one game since Halloween with 200 yards passing and hasn’t thrown it 25 times the last six weeks. If the Eagles get the lead they won’t be giving it up. Westbrook should take over this game early and Garcia will make sure they stay in control for an easy victory.


Philadelphia 23, Atlanta 12


Buffalo (7-8) @ Baltimore (12-3): pick BAL -8.5/under 35


The Ravens have been everything they were expected to be with Steve McNair leading the offense. Even while scoring 20 points or less they have been able to go 3-2 and since entering their bye week have reeled off a 8-1 record. A 27-26 win in Tennessee seems to have really put their defense in high gear. In the six games since then no team has scored more than 17 on them with an average of just 9.5 points allowed. The division title is in hand and now the prize is a first round bye with a win. The #1 seed is probably a pipe dream unless Leinart’s return to southern California produces an Arizona win over San Diego. Buffalo’s playoff dreams went up in smoke to another rookie quarterback when they lost at home to Young’s Titans 30-29. Nevertheless, they have been a tough opponent for everyone since they went into the bye at 2-5. Their 5-3 record could easily be 8-0 given their losses by a total of 5 points. Overall six of their defeats have been by 8 points or less. This game really comes down to Buffalo trying to move the ball on a very stingy defense. Willis McGahee has been very ordinary this season, partially due to injury. He still needs 33 yards to surpass 1,000 rushing. The Chargers shut him down four weeks ago, while the Patriots (twice), Bears and Jaguars all held him in check. It isn’t hard to see why given their lack of a potent passing attack. Losman has been throwing touchdown passes lately (11 in his last six games) but has had a difficult time piling up yards. He has also been sacked 44 times and suffered 19 turnovers. The Ravens will ruin him in a big way. Baltimore’s offense on the other hand will simply run Jamal Lewis as a sledge hammer into the #29 run defense. When they quit the game will be over. McNair probably won’t need to finish this one.


Baltimore 21, Buffalo 6


Miami (6-9) @ Indianapolis (11-4): pick IND -7.5/over 40.5


The Dolphins pulled a bit of a late season surge after their 1-6 start to put themselves in the playoff conversation. Two losses later and they are trying to avoid a 10 loss season. The Colts are also reeling with losses in three of their past four games. Another setback will give them 5 losses in a season for (gasp) the first time since 2002 when they entered the playoffs at 10-6 as a wild card. Offensively they have been erratic and defensively they have been flat out bad, notoriously so against the run. With 893 yards rushing Ronnie Brown has to be eyeing his first season with 1,000 despite missing three weeks to injury. He returned to action with 110 on 18 carries last week, chipping in 15 receiving yards as well. The Colts already have a rusher with 1,000 yards in the rookie Addai after he ran for 100 in last week’s 27-24 loss at Houston. With a game to play he has paired with Rhodes to exceed the production of what James and Rhodes put up last year with an edge of 2,163 to 2,049 total yards. Last season’s duo still has an advantage of 18-13 in touchdowns, but the absence of James can’t really be blamed for this offense being unable to score in crucial situations. Peyton Manning has his seventh 4,000 yard passing season and has at least 26 touchdown passes for all nine of his professional seasons. Harrison and Wayne are both over 1,200 yards and will have to beat a tough Miami secondary. This game might be a matter of motivation. Indianapolis needs to get back on the winning side of things and could prefer the #3 seed. Miami has had a pretty tough time scoring over the last four weeks and is probably out of gas. Joey Harrington has gone 12/29 for 62 yards in the last two weeks, partially due to bad weather. I see no reason to believe he can keep his offense on the field even with Brown running well. The Colts should gain control of this game early and give the Dolphins no reason to fight late.


Indianapolis 27, Miami 16


Arizona (5-10) @ San Diego (13-2): pick SD -12.5/over 43.5


It is fitting that Matt Leinart will end the year 2006 again playing in California where he started it losing the national championship game to Vince Young’s team from Texas. He will be trying to avoid going 0-3 in the state after losing at Oakland 22-9 back on October 22. It will be tough because he faces a Charger team wanting to secure the #1 seed and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. Defensively San Diego presents all kinds of problems for them, starting with their front seven led by Merriman. Edgerrin James has had a nice final month of the season with 398 yards rushing in four games including his first three trips past 100 to become the first Cardinal with 1,000 yards rushing since 1998. That doesn’t mean they will have balance in this game though. It will likely be up to Leinart throwing to his dynamic duo of Boldin and Fitzgerald if Arizona wants to win. Even against mediocre defenses, however, the rookie hasn’t really been able to take over a game thus far. In nine of eleven games he has thrown a TD pass, but never more than 2. Just once since he passed for 253 yards in his first start against Kansas City has he exceeded 233 yards in a game. These are not good signs for a team trying to keep up with the NFL’s top offense. One thing going against San Diego is the wall Rivers has run into. Four of the last five weeks he has thrown for 181 yards or less although he has turned it over just 10 times on the season. It doesn’t matter much when Tomlinson is in the backfield. Even though his touchdown streak ended at 8 games he still has 31 and will be hoping to put his new NFL record completely out of reach. Since being held to 70 total yards on October 8 against Pittsburgh all LT has done is pile up 1,797 total yards in 11 games for a gaudy 163.4 average with 2.54 touchdowns a game. Against a mediocre defense the coaching staff will probably spell him with Michael Turner hoping to keep him fresh for the playoffs. It hardly matters because Turner has averaged 6.4 yards per carry for the season and piled up 87 yards on 11 rushes over the last two weeks. Any way the production is cut up, San Diego is going to score a lot of points. They are who Arizona thinks they are, and the result won’t be pretty.


San Diego 33, Arizona 15


San Francisco (6-9) @ Denver (9-6): pick DEN -9.5/under 38.5


Like the Jets all the Broncos need to do is beat a losing team from the Bay Area at home to secure a playoff spot. With a little better play against Arizona the 49ers might also be in playoff contention, but they lost 34-27 to open the season and 26-20 last week to the Cardinals. Two young quarterbacks start the game and Shanahan’s decision to plug in Jay Cutler looks like it worked out just fine. They were not going to win the division with Plummer and certainly knew what their playoff fate would be with him at the helm. Instead they have gotten four starts with two touchdown passes each out of the rookie and are a win away from the playoffs. Alex Smith started off the season playing three solid games with 288, 233 and 293 yards passing while turning it over just once on a fumble. Since then he has gone over 190 yards passing just twice and not by much (214 and 201). It hasn’t helped that he has gone nine straight weeks without throwing the ball 30 times in a game or that his leading receiver has done more mouthing off and drunk driving than making plays. The San Francisco offense runs through Frank Gore and even with defenses keying on him he has still rushed for 1,542 yards (5.5 average) and is just five yards shy of 2,000 total for the season with 9 touchdowns. The Denver defense will know where he is, but they  have been giving up a lot of points lately. In their last six, including two meetings with high powered San Diego, the Broncos have averaged 28.0 points allowed. The 49ers have also had their struggles on defense. Eight teams have hit them up for at least 26 this season including three of their last four opponents and five of their seven road games. Cutler seems relaxed a little more than Smith and has a big play threat in Walker. San Francisco is missing a key cog on the offensive line in Jonas Jennings, their best receiver Antonio Bryant and another threat in tight end Eric Johnson. They can’t keep up with a team fighting for a playoff spot. The Broncos won’t run up the score, but they will run various backs at San Francisco to salt away a comfortable win.


Denver 24, San Francisco 13


Green Bay (7-8) @ Chicago (13-2): pick CHI -3/over 36


Let’s be real. This isn’t going to be Favre’s last game even if the Packers are eliminated from contention based on the strength of schedule tiebreaker earlier in the day. The Bears will be throwing their “A” defense at him nevertheless in trying to maintain momentum into the playoffs. Their offense has enough strength even with their backups to stay ahead of a deflated Green Bay team. The Packers have had struggles scoring for the past month save for a 30-19 win in San Francisco. They posted 10, 17 and 9 in their other three outings. The Bears have shown a little vulnerability on defense with some injuries, yielding 27, 31 and 31 during their last three games but won every game. They will be trying to become the only NFL team to finish 6-0 against their division and don’t want to look bad on national television.


Chicago 24, Green Bay 14

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