Let the games begin. Pittsburgh (13-5) @ Denver (14-3): PIT +3/over 41

These teams have a great playoff history. When the Broncos ran to their first Super Bowl title “Romo” memorably put his index finger to his temple prompting Kordell Stewart to “think!” after the young quarterback through a killer interception in the red zone. That was after the 1997 season and at the time no one would know Cowher’s AFC title game mark would reach 1-4. The aforementioned 24-21 home loss to Denver began his four game losing streak and he does not want a fifth trip to Hawaii where the Pro Bowl teams are getting used to his coaching style.

I still remember their meeting on December 30, 1984 when the underdog Steelers rode QB Bubby Brister to a 24-17 win. A few years later Bubby was not enough in a 1989 divisional playoff won 24-23 by Denver, who went on to lose the most lopsided Super Bowl ever, 55-10 in XXIV. Notice a pattern here? Win or lose, Pittsburgh has not entered the playoffs with a quarterback of note since Terry Bradshaw donned #12. Yes, they made the big one with Neil O’Donnell but he lacked Big Ben’s swagger. I love momentum in this game. All year I have told everyone how dangerous Denver is and it feels weird to pick against them, but I have to go on instinct.

Denver is a team that won last week on New England mistakes. They stuffed the Patriots on the ground, which impresses me about as much as Tyson beating up a ten year old girl. Their pressure got to Brady who finally had to win a playoff game by throwing the football instead of letting his kicker do the dirty work. Do you still think he is better than Montana? Jake Plummer is going to look bad against this defense. The altitude is the only problem I see for the Steelers because the fourth quarter might be very unkind. Still, the balance is there for Pittsburgh to set up a historic Super Bowl: Pittsburgh 22, Denver 20

Carolina (13-5) @ Seattle (14-3): CAR +3.5/under 43.5

If I hear the term “road warrior” one more time during these playoffs I am going to hire Mel Gibson to beat the tar out of every AP writer. Good teams can play anywhere. Historically the home teams have an obvious advantage, but talent always wins in the end. The Seahawks are much happier with their rabid fans behind them and more physically fresh because only twice (back and forth) have they jumped on a plane since returning from Tennessee on December 19. That was for a meaningless game in Green Bay. Other than that, they have been gearing up. If you talk to Indianapolis this might not be such a great thing. This will be a much tougher opponent.

Understanding that Washington’s defense is every bit as good as Carolina, the difference is that that Panthers will actually get a first down occasionally. They also have quite a bit more of a fire in their belly. Nick Goings is a detriment. He makes me nervous. I knew Foster would get hurt and predicted it in my column last week for the few people who read it. If the Seahawks jump that screen route to Steve Smith even once successfully it will go for 7 points and possibly ruin the play for the balance of the game. That is another thing that makes me uneasy.

Mostly I am trying to figure out how I thought cold weather would undo this Carolina team for the past two weeks even though I realized they had the most talent in the NFC playoff field before the tournament began. Fool me twice and I feel like a fool. I have no choice, but to reverse field. The Seahawks are ready to make the next step, but I am feeling a repeat of what the Colts did against Pittsburgh. They feel like “winning” home field was a big deal and will not follow through in the actual game. Hasselbeck is going to make more mistakes and a “Two Jakes” Super Bowl is possible if I am wrong on the early game: Carolina 23, Seattle 20