The continuing story of week 12 Baltimore (3-7) @ Cincinnati (7-3): CIN -9/under 37

In case you haven’t noticed the Ravens can still play defense. However, they are the worst defense in points allowed in the AFC North. Okay, at 18.4 it still puts them #11 in the NFL but this might explain their demise this season. Usually they can make due on defense. This year at 11.6 points scored per game, dead last in the NFL, it has been a tough road. Speaking of the road, that’s where they are this week. Their points allowed in away games this season? That’d be 25, 35, 10, 20 and 30 for an average of 24.0 so I think you see where I am going with this. The Bengals are a better team with more at stake: Cincinnati 26, Baltimore 10

Carolina (7-3) @ Buffalo (4-6): BUF +4/under 36.5

If you are trying to figure this game out, immediately reference the last time the Bills were at home (they beat Kansas City 14-3) and the Panthers were on the road (they lost in Chicago 13-3). Something was revealed at Soldier Field last week. When Steve Smith is not allowed to score touchdowns the Panthers can be stopped. However, Buffalo is ill equipped to stop the run so unless Delhomme has a terrible game as Green did against this defense two weeks ago it will be a hard fought loss the home team: Carolina 14, Buffalo 13

Chicago (7-3) @ Tampa Bay (7-3): TB -3/under 33

This is absolutely the Thomas Jones Bowl. Here is a guy who came into the NFL as the #7 overall pick, floundered in Arizona three seasons and had his best season here in Tampa Bay (807 total yards) only to be shown the door. In Chicago he improved again with 1,375 total yards, scoring 7 times in 14 games. His team thanked him by drafting Cedric Benson. Is he mad? I would be, and the question is how much he can do about it against this defense given his lack of a passing game. My feeling is absolutely nothing. On the road Chicago is a little softer on defense. True, the Buccaneers have allowed 34, 35 and 27 points the past three weeks. However, they do not allow teams to move the ball on them. Simms can manage this game and Cadillac will do just fine: Tampa Bay 16, Chicago 6

Cleveland (4-6) @ Minnesota (5-5):

Everyone wondering what would have happened if Tampa Bay’s champions had met Baltimore’s will find out this week. Okay, not really but the starting quarterbacks are the same. The player who handles the ball on every offensive play, and I don’t mean the center, controls much of the outcome. Droughns is probably the better rusher and has the better defense behind him, but on the road those factors take a back seat. The Vikings are starting to make a serious move and with everything they have been through this season I find it hard to imagine them blowing it now. No pun intended: Minnesota 26, Cleveland 17

New England (6-4) @ Kansas City (6-4):

One team is starting Heath Evans at running back and the other has Larry Johnson. Until I see the Patriots stop a team defensively I will not pick them to win on the road against such odds. Trent Green needs to protect the football and keep his team ahead by more than 7 points. Tom Brady is a good comeback player, but rarely rallies his team from large deficits. The Chiefs will be fired up for this one and punch their opponent in the mouth early and often: Kansas City 30, New England 22

San Diego (6-4) @ Washington (5-5):

This is going to be a war. Both defenses will be out to win the game, and the better one in the form of the Redskins certainly has more resistance which levels the game out. Last week Washington had an inability to close out a game they easily could have won. That has been a problem for San Diego all season, so that doesn’t help. Ultimately the Chargers need this win and with Tomlinson on their side I have to take them: San Diego 17, Washington 14

San Francisco (2-8) @ Tennessee (2-8):

The running joke is that neither team wants to win this game. It might be a situation where they pull a Holmgren (from the Super Bowl) and let the opposing running back score on every play. Or perhaps both teams will take a knee from the outset. Okay, not really. What I want to see is Mike Nolan showing a little animosity towards Jeff Fisher from the times they butted heads when Nolan patrolled the Baltimore sideline as defensive coordinator. Then we might be onto something. I like the home team with the better quarterback and running back, not to mention deeper receiving corps: Tennessee 34, San Francisco 20

St. Louis (4-6) @ Houston (1-9):

Bulger has a bulging shoulder because he was dumb enough to offer it to an opposing linebacker following an interception. Well, Jamie Martin has quietly completed 68.9% of his passes in relief. At this point he is charged with protecting the ball and allowing Steven Jackson to carry this team. Last week Larry Johnson embarrassed this defense on national television. The Texans have clearly quit and even if the Rams typically wilt outdoors this is a less than typical environment with the half-dome. St. Louis is also 3-2 outside their weak division and has to win this game or pack in the season. Houston already has, weeks ago in fact: St. Louis 30, Houston 21

Jacksonville (7-3) @ Arizona (3-7):

The Jags won’t have Fred Taylor, but they will have Byron Leftwich against a vulnerable secondary. The Cardinals possess no running game and will be relying on Kurt Warner to protect the football against a good defense. I have been trying to figure out this Jacksonville team for the past month. They lost in St. Louis against a team playing without the key elements to their passing game, scraped by Houston (21-14) and last week had to sweat quite a bit in Tennessee before winning (31-28). Their 30-3 win over Baltimore is the best thing they have done since stunning Pittsburgh at Heinz Field on October 16. The Cardinals meanwhile return home after spending three of four in enemy territory. They pulled out a win last week, but while going 1-3 the last four weeks they have given up 34, 33, 29 and 28 points. If Warner has to outplay Leftwich he will turn the ball over or at least that is what I am banking on: Jacksonville 27, Arizona 23

Miami (3-7) @ Oakland (4-6):

The Raiders turned in an inspired effort last week for Norv Turner against the team he once led. Now it is time for them to do it again. Zach Thomas is the guts of Miami’s defense and he is out. LaMont Jordan is licking his chops. The many times that this team has ventured into Oakland over the past few years have produced similarly bad results for the visitors. There isn’t a lot to say because Collins and company will have their way all day: Oakland 24, Miami 13

Green Bay (2-8) @ Philadelphia (4-6):

If these tickets were a stock, they would have been hot in August and worthless now. McMahon has the ability to run an offense and Westbrook can work over the Packers in many ways. However, Favre is going to have to be carted off the field before he gives up. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen this week. I like the Eagles to say enough is enough: Philadelphia 20, Green Bay 17

NY Giants (7-3) @ Seattle (8-2):

The Seahawks finally understand the urgency this season. The Giants are ready to fold up tent yet again after a hot start. Eli Manning is making strides, but is not ready to win a big road game. He couldn’t do it in San Diego or Dallas and won’t do it here. The home field advantage in this game will be huge. Seattle has worked so hard to separate themselves from a terrible NFC West division and if they win this game they are the champions. If they want to stay home in the playoffs their fate rests in a game like this: Seattle 27, NY Giants 20

New Orleans (2-8) @ NY Jets (2-8):

This is the second half of the draft bonanza double header. The loser of this one will be in line with the Titans vs. 49ers loser to spend the rest of the season competing for the #2 or #3 draft spot with an outside shot at landing the coveted Reggie Bush slot. On Sunday Night Football usually players are inspired, but if the fans of both teams had their way their club would lay down. New York has the home field and stubborn coach. New Orleans is bitter over the Katrina makeup game and has a feisty wide receiver ready to carry his team. This is a 50/50 game and I just changed my mind: New Orleans 24, NY Jets 20

Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Indianapolis (10-0):

I am cornered here because long ago I said the Colts could run the table. By long ago I mean before the season started. Taking them here means ignoring how good Cowher’s Steelers are on Monday Night Football and the unbeatable Roethlisberger factor. Big Ben is laying his butt on the line by playing in this game against a tough defense. If he hits the turf hard enough the Steelers might wish they just took the loss. I can’t pick against the Colts while they have everyone completely healthy and going on offense: Indianapolis 26, Pittsburgh 20