I know, I've cost everyone a bunch of money by not posting my winning picks sooner. You'll get over it and realize gambling is for suckers. Denver @ Buffalo: DEN -8/under 34.5

I like the Broncos because they run the ball well and against a team that can't stop it that seems like a pretty good recipe for success, especially in bad weather. Holcomb is ironically a step back from the inspired rookie Losman who had shown signs of life while McGahee is a mouth without legs: Denver 21, Buffalo 10

Tampa Bay @ New England: NE -4.5/under 36

The book says TB can't play in the cold while the Pats dominate at home when the December weather comes along. I don't know who wrote the book, but I think I am sticking to it. Simms will lack accuracy in the poor conditions and Cadillac will fold up tent: New England 17, Tampa Bay 9

Kansas City @ NY Giants: NYG -3/over 47

I feel for Trent Green having lost his father, but the guy is not clutch right now. I blame the front office for failing to get him any receivers. Gonzalez is struggling because he can't be in two places at once while Kennison is a hit or miss option. Other than that Larry Johnson is counted on too much for a cold weather road game under the watchful eye of a national audience. Tiki is going to show everyone how good he really is: NY Giants 28, Kansas City 23

Arizona (4-9) @ Houston (1-12): AZ -1/over 43

The Cards could win this game and lose a lot of draft position because of how many teams have bad records right now. Conversely, the Texans can win it with really no consequences because the only team with 2 wins is San Francisco who they can lose to on New Year's Day (after losing next week) and still be the #1 seed. Got all that? In other words, it is hard to tell who will get up for this game. I'm not sure the Texans care about winning game #2 or understand that this won't cost them Reggie Bush: Arizona 24, Houston 20

Pittsburgh (8-5) @ Minnesota (8-5): PIT -3/under 41

Daunte might be heading back to the place it all started for him. That's jail. Okay, bad joke but this guy made his bed and needs to lie in it. His successor Brad Johnson has settled the team down against really bad competition. Big Ben plays the same type of game as the savvy veteran while both Michael Bennett and Willie Parker will show off their speed thanks to the quick turf. I see a tight game, but when the dust settles the Steelers are a better team: Pittsburgh 23, Minnesota 17

Seattle (11-2) @ Tennessee (4-9): SEA -7/over 45

The Seahawks are blowing everyone away right now. Hasselbeck and Alexander get their final triplet back when Darrell Jackson suits up again. His presence is mostly symbolic right now, but adding him really puts a nail in the coffin of other NFC teams hoping to grab the #1 seed. The Titans will put up their best effort into the third quarter and then fold: Seattle 34, Tennessee 20

Carolina (9-4) @ New Orleans (3-10): NO +9/over 40

I am very uneasy about this game. The Saints are hard to figure out. Joe Horn is pissed that his man Aaron Brooks was benched. Bouman is starting just for the sake of change because obviously he is not the future of the franchise. The Panthers lost Stephen Davis for the season officially, but Foster is the better back in some respects. One thins he does not excel at is short yardage, an often overlooked aspect of the game. High scoring, exciting and the better team that is motivated wins: Carolina 28, New Orleans 24

NY Jets (3-10) @ Miami (6-7): MIA -7.5/under 35.5

The Dolphins are on a serious roll and the Jets just rolled over the Raiders. I believe in Gus Frerotte to the extent that he knows how to run this team. Bollinger sucks and the Dolphin defense will rule him all day long. This is not going to be a close game by any stretch of the imagination: Miami 21, NY Jets 3

San Diego (8-5) @ Indianapolis (13-0): SD +7.5/over 51

If the Colts want to finish off the Chargers, they should do it now while LT is less than 100%. That is their motivation, even if others are talking about how they will rest players. Really the difference here is home field, defense and quarterback play. It's that way with every game when you think about it: Indianapolis 31, San Diego 28 (OT)

San Francisco (2-11) @ Jacksonville (9-4): JAX -14.5/under 37.5

The 49ers are pitiful on the road and their quarterback is looking more like Ryan Leaf than Peyton Manning. The Jags have a defense to make him look bad and a backup quarterback who knows how to make the key plays: Jacksonville 26, San Francisco 6

Philadelphia (5-8) @ St. Louis (5-8): STL -3/under 43

It wasn't that long ago that these teams met for the NFC title in a barnburner won 34-29 by the Rams. Now it is down to Fitzpatrick vs. McMahon. Since both of them suck, it will fall on the defenses and running games to decide this game. I like Steven Jackson even if I question his toughness. Moats might prove me wrong, but I'll take the odds: St. Louis 23, Philadelphia 19

Cincinnati (10-3) @ Detroit (4-9): CIN -8/under 43.5

The Bengals are due for a mysterious letdown, but I have a hard time seeing it happen here. The Lions are a disaster right now. Their skill players have no cohesiveness because the backs and receivers have been hurt while the quarterbacks are changed just about every week. Cincinnati had a little trouble with their offense when Chris Henry was busted for substance possession and Chris Perry got hurt, but they have the defense that can take the ball away big time: Cincinnati 24, Detroit 13

Cleveland (4-9) @ Oakland (4-9): OAK -3/over 40

Looking outside at the pouring rain it appears running will be the order of the day. Droughns and Jordan can both carry the load for their team. Tough receivers will make plays and that will be Porter and Bryant respectively. I don't think the weather is going to hurt anything but the kicking game and deep passing. I know the Raiders are wounded after last week and Jordan didn't like their effort. He takes this one into his own hands: Oakland 28, Cleveland 21

Dallas (8-5) @ Washington (7-6): DAL +3/over 35.5

Finally this game means something. The Cowboys need revenge for letting the first meeting slip away. They have the better team, but the question is their ability to make the necessary plays. Based on their over the top effort last week I see a lot of desire in them. The Redskins played their way back into the race by beating two bad teams. This is not a bad team: Dallas 20, Washington 17

Atlanta (8-5) @ Chicago (9-4): ATL +3/over 31

On the frozen field running will be important. The Falcons do that well, and should lean on Duckett. Thomas Jones is a nice back between the 20s, but his team does not cash in touchdowns because their quarterback sucks. Vick doesn't suck and neither does Schaub: Atlanta 19, Chicago 13

Green Bay (3-10) @ Baltimore (4-9): GB +3.5/over 33

I can't help feeling like Favre won't allow his team to lose in front of a national TV audience. It is hard to believe that Gado gives his team more stability at running back than what the Ravens have in Lewis and Taylor. They are hurt and at odds with the head coach, not exactly in that order. If it boils down to Boller making throws compared to Favre this is no contest: Green Bay 21, Baltimore 17