This week I will integrate dbsmall's very successful math model into the picks. His choices will be reflected in the "dbsmall's pick". The first is straight up and the second is against the spread. Let me take a moment to explain how tough it is to do this little thing I like to call picking against the spread and over/under. The consensus choices last week were only 3-11 vs. the number and 4-10 on the over/under despite a 10-4 week picking winners straight up. I was 11-3 straight up (27-19 overall) and 9-5 on the spread (20-25-1) with a stout 11-3 on the over/under (28-17-1) so after a sluggish start I have rebounded nicely.

Buffalo (1-2) @ New Orleans (1-2): fella’s pick: NO +1/over 39.5 dbsmall’s pick: BUF/BUF -1

The Bills have found a way to lose in two different uniforms while the Saints have lost at home and on the road without ever setting foot in their home state. They won't in this game either, but San Antonio is going to be a very big home field advantage and momentum will return to their side. Buffalo brings more defensive talent, but just lost their centerpiece in middle linebacker Takeo Spikes so a new player will have to call the plays and adjust to audibles. Both teams have good lead rushers and capable receivers with the difference being that even though Brooks is an inconsistent quarterback, but Losman is a disaster right now: New Orleans 23, Buffalo 21

Detroit (1-1) @ Tampa Bay (3-0): fella’s pick: TB -6.5/over 34 dbsmall’s pick: TB/DET +6.5

It wasn't too long ago that these guys were coaching on either side of the San Francisco Bay. Now they will wage war near a different bay. Gruden's club has to be feeling good right now given that the next three quarterbacks they face are Harrington, a freshly signed Testaverde (who is 41) and Frerotte. Would you believe 6-0 into the bye week and a trip to San Francisco on deck? Things are dismal in Rock City because a struggling offense isn't going to get well here, or against Baltimore and Carolina the next two weeks for that matter. Their 1-1 could be 1-4 in the blink of an eye, setting massive changes into motion . I don't believe the Bucs are that good, or the Lions are that bad but in the NFL you have to put up and clearly the results reflect one team doing that: Tampa Bay 24, Detroit 12

Indianapolis (3-0) @ Tennessee (1-2): fella’s pick: IND -7/over 45 dbsmall’s pick: IND/TEN +7

The fact that this is a meeting of guys with MVP trophies seems to have been pushed to the backburner. That's because no one can believe how well the Colts are doing keeping opponents from scoring or how unconcerned they seem to be to actually score themselves. On the other hand the Titans are playing inspired football of late and typically bring out their best at home. Henry being out is a blow to the offense and a distraction, but I like McNair to challenge this defense that so far has faced Boller, Leftwich and Dilfer who aren't exactly Canton bound. Peyton will finally open things up this week to the delight of fantasy owners, and I really expect him to have to work for this win: Indianapolis 34, Tennesee 24

San Diego (1-2) @ New England (2-1): fella’s pick: NE -5.5/under 47 dbsmall’s pick: NE/NE -5.5

Neither team would seem to be in big trouble right now, but the loser will be. The Chargers are starting a block with three of four on the road as they return home for Pittsburgh before visiting Oakland and Philadelphia. The Patriots travel to Atlanta and Denver next and in their world any loss is crucial. I suppose this boils down to how much the Chargers are willing to dump passes off to Tomlinson against a depleted set of linebackers and knowing that Harrison won't be in the secondary to make tackles. This defense still has the reputation, but hasn't held a team under 20 in three tries. On the other hand New England still knows how to score and more to the point how to win. Picking against them in a game like this just feels wrong: New England 26, San Diego 20

Denver (2-1) @ Jacksonville (2-1): fella’s pick: DEN +4/under 36 dbsmall’s pick: JAX/DEN +4

I can't help remembering how poorly the Broncos played in their first trip to Florida (34-10 loss in Miami) or that they flopped here early last year in a fluke 7-6 loss. That being said I expect a ton of defense in this game with punts and field goals playing a big role. Elam is a better kicker, but the Jags will make one clutch touchdown drive to seal it: Jacksonville 16, Denver 13

Philadelphia (2-1) @ Kansas City (2-1): fella’s pick: PHI +2/over 45.5 dbsmall’s pick: PHI/PHI +2

Is McNabb going to get knocked out of this game? I really think he could against this defense and that makes it a hard game to call. The Chiefs aren't the same running team without Roaf at left tackle. They got away with it in Oakland, but certainly didn't in Denver. At home they play better which is a fact not lost on Champ Bailey who should not be ripped for saying it out loud during the MNF broadcast. Vermeil would love to beat his old team, but the truth of the matter is that the Eagles will destroy this offense. Their secondary is going to take away Kennison and Gonzalez for the most part, forcing Holmes and Johnson to run for the tough yards. They aren't tough runners though, they are quick through holes and in open space. I might be totally wrong and I'm willing to take that chance: Philadelphia 27, Kansas City 20

St. Louis (2-1) @ NY Giants (2-1): fella’s pick: STL +3.5/under 47 dbsmall’s pick: NYG/NYG -3.5

In a late development, if Martz is unable to coach his Rams due to health concerns they might actually have a better chance to win. His decision making is questionable at best. The Giants are not a good football team and simply took advantage of two mistake prone opponents. The Rams are much weaker outdoors and even though this isn’t the dead of winter the Meadowlands is not a friendly place to play. Steven Jackson’s status concerns me a lot, but something in my gut says Marshall Faulk might be able to carry the load one last time in his absence. Eli has turned into a better quarterback because he makes smart decisions. It’s a coin flip: NY Giants 23, St. Louis 20

Seattle (2-1) @ Washington (2-0): fella’s pick: WAS -2/under 36.5 dbsmall’s pick: WAS/WAS -2

The Redskins are rested and ready for this game, but don’t have the talent the Seahawks do. On the other hand, the Seahawks are a dreadful road team and this is a long trip for them. Portis and Alexander can carry the load for each team. Brunell seems to have regained some confidence and might be ready to be a caretaker for this defense and running game much the way Dilfer was during the shocking Baltimore run to the Super Bowl. I’m not predicting Ford Field for this team, but you get the point. On a neutral field I would take Seattle, and in the Pacific Northwest I would take them easily, but not here: Washington 16, Seattle 12

Houston (0-2) @ Cincinnati (3-0): fella’s pick: CIN -9.5/under 42 dbsmall’s pick: CIN/HOU +10

The Texans are a dangerous team because they have nothing to lose at this point. Their offensive coordinator has been fired and their quarterback is getting killed by a porous offensive line. They will be playing a Bengals team that for the first time in about 10 years might be overconfident for a game. This has pitfall written all over it. I love what Cincinnati has done so far, winning impressively three times. Now I have to lay two scores to pick them and that’s quite a leap for me. I guess what seals it is the fact that their defense is flying around the field making plays for Marvin Lewis. Until David Carr shows he can get this offense off the floor they won’t get my vote: Cincinnati 27, Houston 13

NY Jets (1-2) @ Baltimore (0-2): fella’s pick: BAL -7/under 31 dbsmall’s pick: BAL/NYJ +7

The Ravens don’t need two weeks to get ready for a third string quarterback. Brooks Bollinger was taken #200 in the draft so he is already drawing comparisons to Tom Brady who was taken #199 in his draft. Both have been thrust into the lineup replacing a franchise quarterback early in the season for a team with a chance to compete. He’s not going to make his mark against this secondary, and might not even play next week once Testaverde puts away his cane. There really is no other factor in this game because without the ability to pass down the field Ray Lewis will be all over Curtis Martin: Baltimore 20, NY Jets 6

Dallas (2-1) @ Oakland (3-0): fella’s pick: OAK -3/under 46 dbsmall’s pick: OAK/OAK -3

I am getting a little tired of everyone saying the Raiders can’t play defense. It doesn’t help when they have faced three quarterbacks who each had at least 27 touchdown passes last year or running backs named Dillon, Holmes and Westbrook. In the New England game one of the touchdowns came on a drive started at the Oakland 15 and in the Kansas City game a muffed punt led to a 17 yard touchdown drive. Without those two touchdowns this is a defense allowing around 20 points a game against teams with offensive firepower. The Cowboys have a statue at quarterback and a young, inconsistent running back. You will see the difference big time. Dallas will get killed by the deep ball even if the ground game doesn’t get untracked for the Silver and Black: Oakland 28, Dallas 13

Minnesota (1-2) @ Atlanta (2-1): fella’s pick: ATL -6/over 44.5 dbsmall’s pick: ATL/MIN +6

The Vikings gained some of their confidence back by popping New Orleans, but the Falcons are still are more prepared team with more talent. Vick is more of a leader than Culpepper at this point and makes better use of his surrounding players. Atlanta is a better rushing team with a more established defense. I could see Daunte pulling out some stops here, but without his old home run threat it isn’t an upset in the making: Atlanta 28, Minnesota 20

San Francisco (1-2) @ Arizona (0-3): fella’s pick: AZ -2.5/over 42.5 dbsmall’s pick: AZ/SF +3

When the 49er secondary took two hits this week and linebacker Winborn was ostensibly told he would be traded I felt the momentum swung to the Cardinals because this defense has to be rattled. McCown and Shipp might give this team a better chance to win than Warner and Arrington right now. If the game is in Mexico or on Mars I believe that Dennis Green finally gets his squad to play a complete game against an opponent they should have swept last year: Arizona 31, San Francisco 17

Green Bay (0-3) @ Carolina (1-2): fella’s pick” GB +7.5/over 43 dbsmall’s pick: CAR/GB +7.5

I don’t feel all that sorry for Favre. Unlike Marino he has his ring and he should have realized a season or two ago that if he wanted another one his best chance was lining up for another team, but he chose not to. Steve Smith is the only weapon down the field for the Panthers, but they have more of a running game at this point. The Packers have not been able to get Ahman Green going and Favre can’t carry the load without Javon Walker. To be honest though, I could see the Packers swinging an upset here: Carolina 24, Green Bay 20

The Football Expert has their usual trio.

Cam Inman of the Contra Costa Times coughed out the dirt and wound up 9-5 last week. You will need to register but it is free if you enter an email address.

AP writer Dave Goldberg has had a very tough time against the spread so far.

Yahoo has a quartet all above the .500 mark, but none of them are better than the Yahoo pick'em users at 29-17.

Jim Harmon of CBS Sportsline continues to do his thing while the rest of the crew goes against the spread where last year's champ Clark Judge (+23) has sputtered to -15. Oh how tough it is to do well every season.

Two Minute Warning does their quick picks against the spread and confidence choices straight up.

Sunshine Forecast has their picks and you will have to click on the individual link after for week 4 picks.

MSNBC's Jay Novacek gives a former player perspective although you will need to click through the games one by one to get it.

Fanbay has fun with numbers, some of which I still don't know what mean.

4NFLPicks must have sputtered last week because at 29-17 and 27-19 they are merely good after starting hot.

USA Today checks in straight up with Jon Saraceno leading the also-rans and Zen Zone writing it up with a glow on his face with a 30-16 mark to set their pace. He isn't humble about it either.

Inside the NFL gives you a take that needs help other than Collinsworth.

SportzNutz finally has two of six above .500 (at 24-22) straight up which is not good while DJ Boyer provides brief analysis as one of the leaders for their thus far disastrous season.

Mike O'Hara has his Detroit News Online opinion if you can find it (that's the link to last week) and his pals chime in as they pick against the spread.

Pro Football Weekly comes to one staff decision about each game both straight up and against the spread.

Peter King of SI still keeps his season record a secret since it sucks so bad. I heard he is appearing on The Biggest Loser 3 because Celebrity Fit Club rejected him on account of him not being a celebrity. Oh, that hurts.

ESPN has their poll going so give a vote and find out the results.

ARGH from AOL checks in, but I'll never trust their season totals after I caught them cheating last year.

Football.com has a trio of pickers going straight up and against the spread.

Sports Central has Jeffrey Boswell making picks with funny fake quotes and I love any site where I can modify the link to find the next week without pissing around searching for it.

Ask the Commish is into the mix and unlike other sites all of their guys are on the plus side straight up.

Sports Filter has the self proclaimed Hoser ready for action.

Silver Chips Online is a week behind, but clicking on "Professional Football" at the top of the page might get you to their selections.

Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News always has a column that is "magazine only" on the TSN website but free on Yahoo so figure that one out.

Tom Schaller might be off this week because camping beats out blogging.

ESPN has the worst staff in broadcasting when it comes to getting picks in by Friday. Hoge and that prick Schlereth are the culprits this week. Are you waiting for the weather report Mark?

Bill Simmons doesn't care much about NFL picks but decides to put them in his sidebar anyway.