Baltimore (4-2) @ Buffalo (1-4): BAL -3/under 35

 

Quietly the Ravens are gaining momentum. Of course they are after playing three of their past four against the NFC West. They won those games sandwiched around a sound 27-13 loss at Cleveland. Now it’s back to the varsity portion of the schedule. Well, maybe not. When last seen the Bills were on MNF handing Dallas a win. You won’t see many teams win the turnover battle 6-1 and lose. Buffalo won’t win it this week period against Baltimore because turnover machine Steve McNair (2 interceptions, 4 fumbles lost) will be wearing a headset. Kyle Boller gives them a more conservative approach at quarterback and they will ride Willis McGahee against his former team’s #25 ranked run defense and worst unit overall in total yards allowed. On the other side his replacement, rookie Marshawn Lynch, will be greeted by a defense giving up just 2.9 yards per rush (#2) and 66.7 yards per game (#3). Trent Edwards gets the nod at quarterback after completing 76.3% of his passes over the past two games. He won’t get close to that this week against a Raven defense allowing the fifth worst completion percentage (57.1%) while recording the second most interceptions (9). These rookies can’t stand up against this defense. Baltimore isn’t going to blow them away, but McGahee will be inspired to show up the team that traded him away. This won’t be a “big game” but it will match quarterbacks who have played in The Big Game. Boller (Cal) gets by Edwards (Stanford) in this one: Baltimore 16, Buffalo 10

 

Tampa Bay (4-2) @ Detroit (3-2): DET -1.5/under 44.5

 

These former NFC Central rivals are surprising contenders in the wide open NFC. That is where the similarities end. The Lions are a pass first and ask questions later offense with no defense. The Bucs run a conservative offense, relying on their defense to win the game. Both of these recipes recently received a jolt, one good and one bad. Detroit is starting to work running back Kevin Jones back into the fold. He has 21 carries for 86 yards the pass week and can help balance the already potent offense. Tampa Bay has lost two running backs, forcing them to trade for Michael Bennett who probably won’t be able to help them this week. Earnest Graham has been their last man standing, but with a bigger  role the past two weeks he has 19 carries for just 40 yards (2.11 average rush). The Bucs do have a veteran quarterback to lean on in Garcia going against a defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.6% of their passes, second worst in the NFL. They also have the second most interceptions having taken away one of every 20.4 passes thrown at them, but Garcia has none in 144 throws this year and only 2 in his last 393 counting last year with two playoff games mixed in. Conventional wisdom says he will be put in a situation where he has to force some passes. Detroit will score their points at home, and Tampa Bay can’t keep them off the field by running the ball. When the Redskins humbled this team two weeks ago it gave them a free week to figure out how to prevent the same thing from happening again: Detroit 23, Tampa Bay 20

 

Tennessee (3-2) @ Houston (3-3): pick HOU +1.5/under 38.5

 

The AFC South is no longer the Colts and everyone else. Now it is the deepest division in football. The quartet is a staggering 11-2 against outside competition this season. With Indianapolis (5-0) and Jacksonville (4-1) leading the way this becomes essentially an elimination game where the division race is concerned. The Titans may have to do it without Houston native Vince Young who might have succumbed to the “Madden Curse” when he strained his quad last week. Veteran Kerry Collins has been prone to turnovers his entire career having given it away 220 times in 159 games. He threw 2 interceptions in each the team’s first three games last year before being replaced by the rookie Young whose intangibles have lifted Tennessee to contending status. Where they will really miss him is in the running game. Yes the Titans are #6 in rushing offense, but that is deceiving. Young has provided 18.2% of those yards. Brown’s production has been poor since his 175 yards on opening day, having rushed for just 3.28 yards per carry since. White’s average is 3.17 overall. As for balance, no player has more than 15 receptions and their co-leader in yardage, Brandon Jones, is out. The defense will need to carry them in this game, and they might. Houston has been horrible against the run and believe it or not Tennessee has the #1 run defense in yards allowed. At least Ahman Green appears to be healthy enough to start, but the Texans will be leaning on Schaub and the NFL’s surprising #6 pass offense. However, the Titans have allowed just 3 touchdown passes all year, second best in the NFL. So what gives? Vince Young, that’s what. He finds a way to win, and if he doesn’t play they don’t win: Houston 20, Tennessee 17

 

New England (6-0) @ Miami (0-6): pick NE -14/under 52.5

 

If you think this game needs no analysis you haven’t paid much attention to this series lately. When last they met the Pats were trashed 21-0 in this stadium. The other meeting last year was 13-10 with ten minutes to play before New England sealed a 10 point win with a touchdown. They finished with 213 total yards. Even while dominating the NFL this decade they have swept the Dolphins just once back in 2003 and overall have split the last 14 against them. Upsets can happen, but this would be the equivalent of Stanford over USC and Appalachian State over Michigan combined. The visitors bring an offense on pace to shatter the current season record for points and become the first team to cross the 600 barrier. No one has held them under 34. Tom Brady is setting a pace for 56 touchdown passes, seven better than Peyton Manning’s masterful 2004 season. This is also not your older brother’s Miami defense. Teams are getting ahead of them and staying ahead by running right over them to the tune of 4.5 yards per rush (eighth highest) and 168.5 yards a game (second most). The only positive has been losing three of their six games by a field goal, all on the road in Washington, New York (Jets) and Houston. Now they’re back at home having just traded away their legit #1 wide receiver Chris Chambers to San Diego. Consider the white flag having been thrown. Ronnie Brown is 45.2% of their total offense and I’m pretty sure the Pats can find a way to stop him. Other than injury issues at running back New England has nothing slowing them down: New England 30, Miami 10

 

San Francisco (2-3) @ NY Giants (4-2): pick NYG -8.5/under 40

 

Out of nowhere New York is back in position for another 6-2 start. Winning this game and putting way Miami across the pond next week will have them there again. After looking so bad on defense in the opener they have worked their way up to #9 in total yards allowed while the offense that put up 35 that night in a losing effort is #6 in total yards gained. Ward, Jacobs and Droughns have handled the rushing duties for the retired Tiki Barber having run 158 times for 754 yards (4.77 average) and 6 touchdowns. With 22 receptions only Ward has helped in the passing game, but a healthy Toomer at receiver has helped fill that void. Now they face another team they should beat in San Francisco who will be starting Trent Dilfer at quarterback. He once helped ruin this team with his Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XXXIV. That was a while back, and he did it while riding a legendary defense. The 49ers are getting there, but the woeful offense (#32, 203.2 yards per game) has put too much pressure on them. Both teams figure to struggle running the ball. Even if San Francisco is ranked much lower in run defense (#22) than New York (#11) they trail only 3.9 to 3.8 in yards per carry. Eli Manning to Plaxico Burress is the hot connection no one is really talking about, and the key difference in the game. San Francisco’s secondary has only 3 interceptions, worst in the NFL. They will have to force Eli into some mistakes just to stay within striking distance: NY Giants 26, San Francisco 13

 

Atlanta (1-5) @ New Orleans (1-4): pick NO -7.5/over 42

 

Everyone knows why the Falcons have only one win so far, but it is a shocking development to see the Saints in this predicament. One reason might be the level of competition and having played three of five on the road. Their opponents are 15-8 against the rest of the NFL this season. Now that we know why they have struggled, it probably won’t continue this week. The Falcons send Byron Leftwich at quarterback against a defense allowing the third most TD passes per game played (2.0) and the fewest interceptions (3). This is a great opportunity for him to succeed. It isn’t a bad spot for Drew Brees either. The Falcons have DeAngelo Hall, but have also allowed quarterbacks to complete 64.8% of their passes (#23 in NFL). Brees woke up last week in Seattle after a nightmarish start to his season. Amazingly Atlanta has had the more effective running game this season. The edge here goes to New Orleans because Bush is settling into his role as the lead back with McAllister sidelined. Defensively the Saints also have a big edge in yards per carry allowed (3.7 to 4.3). Atlanta has a lot of issues and at 1-6 heading into the bye will have an extra week to evaluate their plight. If the Saints can win at San Francisco next week they will be 3-4 with a playoff pulse: New Orleans 30, Atlanta 14

 

Arizona (3-3) @ Washington (3-2): pick WAS -6/under 38

 

Have the Cardinals placed any phone calls to Jake Plummer? Maybe they aren’t that desperate yet as Kurt Warner seems to think he could play in this one. I really don’t think it matters. This Redskin defense is making better quarterbacks (Favre) and systems (Detroit) look very bad through the air. They have allowed an NFL low 2 touchdown passes and held opposing quarterbacks to 58.1% completions (#6 in NFL). The run defense has been equally good, holding opponents to 3.7 yards per carry (#6) and 80.0 yards per game (#7). Washington is not dynamic on offense, but they get it done. Portis has plugged along with 60+ yards rushing each week while Campbell usually averages 217 yards passing. The Arizona defense has been pretty mediocre in yards allowed while having given up 20+ points in five of their six games. If the Redskins score 20 they are winning this game. If the Cardinals score 20 I will be very surprised. Make that shocked if Rattay is the starting quarterback. This is going to be a game you should skip if you have other viewing options: Washington 20, Arizona 10

 

NY Jets (1-5) @ Cincinnati (1-4): pick CIN -6/over 46.5

 

Here is a game most people expected to have playoff implications before the season began. Neither team has lived up to the hype. New York’s lone win is over 0-6 Miami while Cincinnati hasn’t won since beating Baltimore on opening day. Predictably both teams have struggled on defense where they each sit in the bottom 5 for total yards allowed. The Bengals are dead last in points allowed (31.2). The difference is on offense where Cincinnati has been explosive enough (#4, 367.0 yards per game) to stay in games having lost three times by 7 points or less. New York is staying close with mirrors having also stayed within a touchdown in three losses despite giving away almost the length of the field with their inept offense (#30, 279.7 yards per game). This looks like a game where both teams get the ball up and down the field. The Bengals want to run the ball, but Rudi Johnson has been ineffective (3.0 yards per carry) and banged up. Thomas Jones woke up for the Jets last week with 130 yards, but already has four games averaging 3.0 yards per carry or worse. When the game goes into the air both defenses are among the league’s ten worst in completion percentage allowed and top four in touchdown passes given up. Still, I’ll take Palmer to Houshmandzadeh and Johnson over an embattled Pennington to Cotchery and Coles. Every day of the week and especially this Sunday: Cincinnati 31, NY Jets 23

 

Kansas City (3-3) @ Oakland (2-3): pick OAK -1.5/under 40.5

 

The Raiders are dying to win a game within the AFC West. Losing 16 in a row against division foes is a good way to keep missing the playoffs. This year they bring a running game to help their cause. Almost unbelievably they have more than doubled the Chiefs this season on the ground (166.3 to 74.8 yards per game) by comparison to last year when Kansas City had a big edge (133.9 to 94.9). Even with that deficit last year they played the Chiefs tough twice, losing 17-13 on the road and 20-9 at home. Now the team is so desperate they might be activating Priest Holmes after trading away Michael Bennett. They will be facing a Raider defense that has been horrible against the run with an NFL high 5.6 yards per carry allowed, a full yard more than all but four other teams. If Larry Johnson can help Kansas City control the ball they will be tough to beat. Oakland has shown very little ability to throw the ball with only Curry having more than 10 receptions from the wide receiver or tight end position. Jerry Porter has been very quiet in his return to the lineup this season other than his 3 touchdown catches. Where the home team can make up ground is with big plays on defense. Linebacker Thomas Howard has been huge with interceptions in four straight games while quarterback Damon Huard has an interception per game so far. Needless to say this game will be close, in which case I usually take the home team. The streak is finally over: Oakland 20, Kansas City 17

 

Minnesota (2-3) @ Dallas (5-1): pick DAL -9/under 47

 

The Cowboys will get a nice look at Adrian Peterson in this game, and will be hoping Cleveland loses a lot of football games to put them in position to draft another great young running back next April, Darren McFadden of Arkansas. The exploits of “All Day” have led the Vikings to the #1 run offense (170.2 yards per game) while already possessing the #2 run defense (66.2 yards per game). One would expect more wins with that combination, but they have very little passing (#28, 169.2 yards per game) and have allowed an NFL high 288.4 yards per game through the air. Tony Romo is dying for an opportunity like this after his 6 turnover game two weeks ago and disappointing loss last week to New England. It won’t be such an easy path for the rookie Peterson running on a Dallas defense ranked #6 in yards rushing allowed (76.7) and #3 in average (3.4). That will put a lot of pressure on Tarvaris Jackson who in six career starts has bested 180 yards passing only once. This is a game where the Cowboys will again establish themselves as the top team in the NFC: Dallas 24, Minnesota 12

 

Chicago (2-4) @ Philadelphia (2-3): pick PHI -4/under 42

 

Just when it looked like the Bears were ready to defend their NFC title by knocking off the previously unbeaten Packers they lose at home to a 1-3 Minnesota team and find themselves in last place. Maybe the move to Griese at quarterback has paid off with a lot of yards passing (293.7 per game) but he has turned it over 7 times while losing two of three. Now he faces off against an Eagle secondary allowing the third lowest completion percentage (56.7) fifth fewest touchdown passes (4) and ninth fewest yards per game (201.4). It will be tough for Cedric Benson’s running to bail them out. He’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry and the team has only 82.7 yards per game (#27) while going up against the #9 run defense in yards per game (91.2) and per carry (3.8). On the other side Chicago has been killed on the ground having allowed the sixth highest average rush (4.6) and seventh most per game (134.2). Westbrook is looking healthy again after last week’s 120 yard effort. McNabb was also sharp coming off the bye (22/35, 278 yards). This should be a comfortable win for the Eagles who essentially send the Bears into hibernation. Obvious, but true: Philadelphia 23, Chicago 16

 

St. Louis (0-6) @ Seattle (3-3): pick SEA -8/over 39

 

The Rams seem to have come apart overnight. Their offense has failed to score more than one touchdown in five of their six games with defeats by at least 14 points four times already. Defensively they are allowing 26.5 points per game, taking away any chance to compete. In a battle of attrition the Seahawks are again in control of the NFC West considering the quarterback situations in Arizona and San Francisco. Even coming off two losses they have to be feeling good considering that after this week they have a bye, then go to Cleveland and return home for San Francisco and Chicago before visiting these Rams. They could easily be 7-3 at the end of that. For that to become a reality someone needs to wake up Shaun Alexander. He has scored just twice and is averaging a pedestrian 68.8 yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. His performance is vital to an offense with a mixed bag at receiver due to injuries. Hasselbeck has made due, leading them to a #8 ranking in pass offense, but against the better teams it will have to be a balanced attack. This week St. Louis just can’t match scores with them. Brian Leonard is a nice rookie, but he’s not a lead rusher and last Sunday in Baltimore (12 rushes for 18 yards) proved it. Bulger probably will be back at quarterback which is fine if he had someone other than Holt on the other end of those passes. The Seahawks can let one player make a few plays and still win this game easily: Seattle 28, St. Louis 13

 

Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Denver (2-3): pick PIT -3.5/over 39

 

Things are starting to fall apart for the Broncos. Their leading rusher has a possible suspension hanging over his head and their best receiver is out indefinitely. The pressure is really on Jay Cutler to start carrying the offense. So far he hasn’t done it, failing to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game while turning it over at least once every outing with a total of 7. He has averaged 195 yards passing during their three game losing streak and honestly none of them have been close. If not for some field goals going their way the first two weeks they could easily be 0-5. The Steelers are on the completely opposite end. Their wins have all been by at least three touchdowns with the lone loss coming 21-14 at Arizona. They get their receivers Ward and Holmes into the fold this week along with stud safety Polamalu. They sport the #1 defense in total yards and points with equal success against the run (#4) and pass (#2). Their top 10 offense is #2 running the ball as Najeh Davenport has provided a nice boost off the bench in relief of Willie Parker. While no one wants to throw on Denver’s stud corners Bailey and Bly (#1 pass defense) everyone is running over them (#32 run defense). It isn’t just the high quantity of rushes either. Even with the second most attempts against (36.4) they are still #31 in yards per attempt allowed (5.2). The Steelers will kill them at the line of scrimmage. Denver’s front line is in transition, and it will be on full display for the nation to see: Pittsburgh 27, Denver 17

 

Indianapolis (5-0) @ Jacksonville (4-1): pick JAX +3.5/under 45

 

The Jaguars had an eye opening 44-17 win over the Colts the last time they visited. Indianapolis went 6-1 the rest of the way to winning the Super Bowl, but it doesn’t mask how tough they have been on their division rivals. Even while winning the previous three games, none of them were by more than 8 points. The previous four meetings (2003-2004) were a split and since joining the AFC South together Indianapolis has never beaten them by more than 10. This one should be no different, right? Probably not, but I’m not convinced the Jags are as good as their record indicates having beaten a mediocre list of teams. Indianapolis shares three of those opponents, but beat the Titans who defeated Jacksonville on opening day. The key here is whether or not Jones-Drew and Taylor can establish the run against a pretty average Indianapolis run defense. Every team wants to keep Peyton Manning on the sideline. Both defenses are in the top 8 so this should be another slugfest between two teams who typically score in the low 20’s against each other at most. Addai is back at practice for the Colts which is huge because even if Kenton Keith was good in relief he is not as big of an overall threat. Another possible edge for Jacksonville is the consistent play of Garrard who has yet to throw an interception this season. He will need to start avoiding sacks though having already taken 15. I still can’t bet against Peyton Manning on MNF, but this will be a tight one: Indianapolis 21, Jacksonville 20