Chicago (5-7) @ Washington (5-7): pick CHI +3/under 39

 

If the Redskins couldn’t ride a wave of emotions to beat the Bills last week I just can’t see how they can do it on a short week against a team struggling to regain their NFC champion form. One thing I’m pretty sure of is that this won’t be an aerial show. Both teams are ranked in the bottom half for most passing categories. Where Washington can hurt Chicago is with interceptions and sacks where the Bears rank second and sixth worst respectively in the NFL. Certainly each team will want to run the ball. Chicago is dead last in average rush (3.2) and yards per game (83.8). Plus, they just lost Cedric Benson. Carrying a heavy load last week Adrian Peterson had 22 rushes for 67 yards. Washington doesn’t have a great average (3.9, #20 in NFL) but they commit to the run and stick with it (371 carries, sixth most in NFL). They also have two healthy backs if they ever pull Betts out of the garage. Making matters worse, Chicago’s run defense per carry (4.4) is fifth worst while Washington’s (3.9) is tenth best. The team who can run the ball most often wins the game. Campbell should play within himself at quarterback while it is anyone’s guess how Grossman will play. The Bears should win this game, but they also shouldn’t be in last place. The Redskins are in a serious tailspin with four straight losses, but were in every game. This is their breakthrough: Washington 17, Chicago 16

 

Miami (0-12) @ Buffalo (6-6): pick BUF -7/under 37

 

It would be impossible for me to back the Dolphins again after last week’s meltdown. They played like a winless team for the first time in over a month and can only take solace in the fact that Baltimore and Cincinnati aren’t contenders this season or their 0-16 fate would be sealed. The Bills scored a monster victory last week and despite being outscored by 90 points on the season are still in the race at 6-6. How does a team in the bottom 3 for both total offense and defense win so many football games? It is scary to think the Miami scores more points and allows 41.4 fewer yards per game. Neither team has a running back to speak of, but Buffalo might be onto something with rookie Trent Edwards who if not for the crazy finish against Dallas on MNF would have won all five of his starts. Miami has their own rookie in John Beck, but he has yet to throw a touchdown pass or win a game while throwing for 418 yards in three outings. You can pretty much throw out their first meeting when it was Losman vs. Lemon. Lynch started at running back for the Bills and might not appear in this one. In a 13-10 win Buffalo had just 214 total yards and went 2/10 on third down. The difference now is that the game isn’t in Florida. Even at their best Miami struggles in Buffalo. Last year they lost 21-0 and have dropped four of their last five trips. Buffalo is 3-3 at home with two losses by a single point on field goal shenanigans and a blowout at the hands of New England. These aren’t the Patriots: Buffalo 24, Miami 9

 

St. Louis (3-9) @ Cincinnati (4-8): pick CIN -4.5/over 47

 

The scoreboard operator should start limbering up. I am feeling a lot of points. Some of the stats can be a little misleading, starting with yards per rush. The Rams (3.6) and Bengals (3.5) are both in the bottom 5, but will have their lead rushers healthy. Jackson has been steady if not spectacular with 20+ rushes in his last four games for 88.5 yards and three touchdowns. The team has an NFL low 4 rushing scores (all his) on the season. Johnson hasn’t been as successful, but like Jackson will face a less than average run defense. In the passing game it is still shocking to see St. Louis ranked #30 in QB rating thanks to their NFL high 20 interceptions. The Bengals aren’t far behind with 15, but they rank fourth in yards passing (262.6). Defensively Cincinnati is hoping Bulger isn’t starting for the Rams. They have the third highest QB rating allowed (93.6) and second most touchdown passes given up (24). The Rams are a middle of the pack pass defense. Everything adds up to a lot of scoring. The most amazing stat could be that over their last four St. Louis (3-1) has a better record than Cincinnati (2-2). The Bengals have outscored home opponents 25.5-25.0 while the Rams have allowed 25.3 on the road. They have scored 23.4 in their last five after a dismal start to their season offensively. These averages will be topped and even though they are out of it the Bengals have a lot of pride playing at home. They win easily: Cincinnati 33, St. Louis 22

 

Dallas (11-1) @ Detroit (6-6): pick DAL -10/under 52

 

The Cowboys will be back to playing on Sunday after two weeks of Thursday action. They are also on the road for the first time in a month where they are 5-0 with four wins by 11+ points and a 33-18 average margin of victory. Everyone is talking up New England’s high scoring offense but Dallas is on pace for 527 points, 29 shy of the NFL record everyone expects those Patriots to break. The Lions return home after an embarrassing 42-10 beat down at the hands of Minnesota and have now lost four in a row by an average of 32-17. Kitna’s once prophetic declaration that they would win 10 games looked great at 6-2, but now they have to win out for it to happen, including trips to San Diego and Green Bay not to mention this one against the NFC’s best team. For a team dedicated to the passing game they simply need more than the 5 touchdown passes he has thrown during the 4 losses and he also has 9 turnovers to go along with 289.3 yards passing per game. There is no chance he can match scores with Romo here. Detroit has allowed 24 TD passes this season, second most in the NFL and the highest completion percentage (70.1) compared to the Dallas defense with the fourth lowest (58.4). The Cowboys are #4 in opposing QB rating (72.6) while the Lions are #31 (93.9). However, both defenses can cause problems as illustrated by a top 5 ranking in interceptions and top 12 ranking in sacks. Detroit would have to play a perfect game to stay in contention and it starts with disrupting the rhythm of Romo. Dallas has a strong running game, fifth best in average rush (4.3) while Detroit runs the ball less than any team in the NFL. Their eggs are in Kitna’s basket and he just lost his best receiver Roy Williams. Maybe he was freaked out by being tackled by, uh, Roy Williams. Both defenses can contain the run, but Dallas has a pair of backs to work with while Detroit has to hope someone shows up healthy to play. I’ll stick to the averages: Dallas 31, Detroit 17

 

Oakland (4-8) @ Green Bay (10-2): pick GB -10/over 40.5

 

The Packers lost their showdown with Dallas, but got an extra two days to help them avoid a letdown. They can wrap up the NFC North. Next they hit the road (St. Louis, Chicago) hoping to secure a #2 seed and first round bye. The Raiders are about as high right now as they have been in years, possibly since getting to the Super Bowl. They broke two losing streaks to division rivals and saw their top pick, quarterback JaMarcus Russell, make a strong debut in their win over Denver. They won’t be in the playoffs, but with Indianapolis, Jacksonville and San Diego left on the schedule their play could ruin someone else’s plans. At issue for Oakland has been their run defense, still the worst in the NFL at 4.8 yards per carry allowed and third worst at 148.0 yards per game. However, they held Denver to 86 yards on 29 carries last week. Green Bay can suddenly run the ball with Ryan Grant who has rushed for 93.5 yards in their last six games. Oakland also has a surprise leading running back as Justin Fargas has taken command of the offense with 98.5 yards rushing in his last six games and 4.8 yards per carry on the year. Both teams should be able to do some damage on the ground. Then there is Favre vs. McCown. Poor Josh McCown has thrown for 588 yards in five full games this season. His little brother Luke had 313 in Tampa Bay’s win over New Orleans this week. Maybe they traded for the wrong family member. Favre is in the midst of the finest season of his illustrious career. He has a reasonable shot at setting a new low in interceptions and a high for yardage despite missing most of last week’s loss at Dallas. This time he has to do it against a very good Raider secondary which has allowed just 8 touchdown passes, second fewest in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have a 71.3 rating, third lowest in the NFL, and they have 15 interceptions, sixth most. Throw it all away because you have to love the Packers at home when the weather turns cold. They are 17-5 in December this decade: Green Bay 27, Oakland 16

 

Tampa Bay (8-4) @ Houston (5-7): pick TB +1/over 40

 

It might be time to start believing in the Buccaneers. They lost their lead running back and are 5-3 since. Their starting quarterback was out for a crucial divisional road game. His backup completed 78% of his passes for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns against 1 interception in a 27-23 win. Their two leading receivers are 36 and 32 years old. Top receiver Galloway is running like he is 22 with the NFL’s second best average per reception (18.2). Hilliard is coming off three years with a combined 1,058 yards receiving yet is on pace to set a new career high in receptions. He has 635 yards after gaining more than 800 just once in 10 previous seasons. I’m pretty sure Gruden will get some votes for coach of the year. The Texans seemed to be heading in that direction with a 2-0 start and at 3-2 were still very much in contention. Then the AFC South swallowed them with three divisional losses during a 2-5 stretch. They have also endured injuries to their starting quarterback, lead rusher and best receiver but haven’t been able to overcome it nearly as well. Whoever Houston goes with at quarterback will face a stingy secondary with the sixth lowest QB rating allowed (74.5). One thing they won’t have to worry about is taking too many sacks. David Carr apparently was the problem after all. Houston has the tenth fewest (18) after absorbing 42 last year. On the other side Tampa Bay likes to be efficient in their passing game and even with 13 TD passes they have the fewest interceptions (5) in the NFL and the fifth best team QB rating (93.7) behind the likes of Brady, Romo, Favre and Roethlisberger who I hear are all pretty good. The Texan secondary has allowed quarterbacks to complete 64.9% of their throws, sixth worst in the NFL with 17 touchdown passes, eleventh most. Rushing offense is a huge edge to Tampa Bay. Their run offense is better (4.3-3.7) and so is their run defense (3.7-4.5) is also better. If they can run the ball it should help them continue their winning ways on the road and a win could clinch them the NFC South title. The Texans are sputtering after two road losses and I don’t believe returning home will help: Tampa Bay 24, Houston 20

 

Carolina (5-7) @ Jacksonville (8-4): pick JAX -10.5/over 37.5

 

These teams will be forever linked after both joined as expansion teams in 1995. Both quickly jumped to conference championship games in their second season. The Panthers went on to two more, including a win in 2003 preceding their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to New England, but the Jaguars haven’t been nearly as successful. They made one more AFC Championship Game appearance in 1999 and have only played in one playoff game since. Annually it seems both teams are highly regarded and expected to make a run. This year the Jaguars are living up to the hype despite losing their starting quarterback for three games in the middle of the season. The Panthers lost theirs for good in week 3 and have fallen apart. Forced to pull Vinny Testaverde off the couch Carolina has the seventh lowest team QB rating (72.4) while Jacksonville has the sixth best (92.8) with Garrard having thrown just 1 interception all season. Neither team has a standout pass defense while Carolina has mustered just 16 sacks, second fewest in the NFL. Both teams like to run (top 10 in attempts) and do it generally well although Jacksonville has a big edge in touchdowns (13-4). The Panthers have the third lowest rushing average against (3.6) while Jacksonville (4.0) is in the middle of the pack although they get a big shot in the arm with the return of Stroud. Clearly the Panthers are going to have to win this game on defense. Their 31 point effort last week was certainly an exception to the rule after they averaged 10 points during a five game losing streak preceding it. Meanwhile the Jaguars have been a scoring machine relatively speaking with 24+ in their last six. Their defense has allowed 23.6 over their last seven, but four of those were on the road and another was against the Colts. In their last two home games they have allowed 17 and 14. This game means more to them in their quest for a wild card. The Panthers are still in a crazy wild card race in the NFC for now, but this will seal their fate: Jacksonville 27, Carolina 14

 

NY Giants (8-4) @ Philadelphia (5-7): pick PHI +2/over 42

 

I can’t remember a team with such a good record looking as shaky on a weekly basis as New York has. Their losses are by 10, 22, 11 and 24 points while half of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. Nevertheless, thanks to a clutch win over Detroit a few weeks ago and a rally against Chicago last week they have a two game lead in the wild card race over three teams at 6-6 while five other teams seem unlikely to track them down at 5-7 including these Eagles. Philadelphia has been bitten with two close losses to division leaders the last two games. Somehow A.J. Feeley has thrown 7 interceptions that have been mostly overlooked. McNabb had just 6 in nine full games and looks to be ready for this one with the season on the line. He was a flat 15/31 for 138 yards the first time around with no touchdown passes or turnovers. His opposite number Eli Manning is two interceptions shy of setting a new career high and only the Rams have more interceptions than New York (17). Neither secondary stands out statistically in pass defense other than top 10 rankings in completion percentage allowed, but the Giants pack a punch in the sack department with an NFL leading 44 while the Eagles aren’t shabby at tenth (30). In the running game Philadelphia has the second best average rush (4.5) just ahead of New York (4.4). The Giants will be without Ward though and possibly Jacobs, leaving them with Droughns who has a 3.2 average on the year. The Eagles have no such problems with Westbrook running strong having piled up an NFL leading 1,598 total yards. Philadelphia’s run defense ranks fifth in average rush allowed (3.7) just ahead of New York (3.8). Everything adds up to a close game. New York is a surprising 5-1 on the road where they have pulled out all four of their close victories this season. Philly is just 2-4 at home and 3-5 in games decided by 8 points or less. In this case I have to go against the trends because if the Giants can’t run with their best backs sidelined there will be too much pressure on Eli Manning: Philadelphia 24, NY Giants 20

 

San Diego (7-5) @ Tennessee (7-5): pick SD +0/over 40

 

The Chargers are the only team playing like they want to win the AFC West having won three of their past four to take firm control of the division. A loss coupled with Denver beating Kansas City can change all of that. For the Titans they are happy to have ended a three game losing streak with a victory over Houston that kept them in the wild card race. This game should come down to quarterback play. Both teams would love to run the ball, and each should have success. Neither teams stands out in rushing offense or defense. The Titans have Haynesworth back although it didn’t help last week when they gave up 4.8 yards per rush. The Chargers of course have Tomlinson who broke a five game streak where he hadn’t rushed for more than 90 yards with 177 against the Chiefs. In this “off” season he is still second in the NFL with 1,476 total yards but his 12 touchdowns put him nowhere close to his record setting 31 from last year’s MVP season. Now where those passers are concerned the Titans have the fourth lowest QB rating (70.6) with the second fewest touchdown passes (7). The Chargers have taken just 16 sacks, second fewest in the NFL, but Rivers hasn’t taken a step forward in his second season at starting quarterback. His yards per game are down 7.0 while the turnovers are up from 11 all of last year to 18 so far. Six times he has turned it over multiple times with the team 2-4 in those games. His rating overall is 80.4, but just three times has he posted a mark over 74.2 in twelve starts. Tennessee has the eighth lowest QB rating allowed (76.0) just ahead of San Diego (76.0). The Chargers lead the NFL with 20 interceptions while the Titans are sixth (15). It could be a tough day for Rivers and Young. The way this season is going either team could win. Flip a coin if you must, but I’ll take the better running back: San Diego 21, Tennessee 20

 

Minnesota (6-6) @ San Francisco (3-9): pick MIN -7/over 38.5

 

The Vikings were in a bad way just a month ago. Green Bay was wiping them out 34-0 and their star rookie running back was out with a knee injury. At 3-6 their outlook appeared bleak, but two wins later Adrian Peterson returned to spark a 42-10 rout of Detroit that has them very much in an eight team race for the second wild card. The 49ers have been heading in the other direction. Last week’s 31-14 loss at Carolina was their sixth defeat by at least 17 points and dropped their record to 0-6 outside of the NFC West. Their issues start at quarterback. Alex Smith is being ripped on local radio and the former #1 overall pick is far from the leader this franchise expected. Instead Trent Dilfer has taken over to fairly poor results. Receiver drops have led to a low completion percentage (53.0) while his average game features 2.2 turnovers and 4.3 sacks. The mistakes have led to a 1-5 record. More should follow with Minnesota at seventh in sacks (31) against an offensive line that has given up 43, second most in the NFL. San Francisco has the worst team QB rating (57.8) and lowest completion percentage (50.9). Minnesota hasn’t gotten great quarterback play out of Tarvis Jackson, but hasn’t needed him to be great. In last week’s win he had his first game over 200 yards passing and threw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in his young career. As team they have the third worst completion percentage (56.9) and third fewest touchdown passes (8). Fortunately, they lead the NFL by a ton in rushing yards per game (176.8) and yards per carry (5.6) plus rushing touchdowns (17). They also rank first in rushing yards per game allowed (70.5) with the second lowest average (3.0) and third fewest rushing touchdowns (5). With a +106.3 yard edge in rushing it is hard to see how this team is only 6-6. The 49ers have Frank Gore, but without the threat of a passing game he has been unable to dominate this season like he did in 2006. Usually San Francisco is tough at home. This year they are 1-4 having not won since their opener. The Vikings are only 2-4 on the road, but they are hot. Adrian Peterson looks great and their defense should wreck Trent Dilfer: Minnesota 24, San Francisco 16

 

Arizona (6-6) @ Seattle (8-4): pick SEA -6.5/under 47

 

With their win over Cleveland last week the Cardinals kept this game relevant in the NFC West race. Having already beaten Seattle earlier this season, a victory here could make things very, very interesting. Arizona next plays at New Orleans (5-7) before returning home for Atlanta (3-9) and St. Louis (3-9). The Cardinals winning out would put the Seahawks in a position where they close needing to win their final three, two of which are on the road. On the other hand, Seattle can win the division simply by taking care of business here. It will be very difficult for the visitors to pull off the upset this time around. Boldin and Fitzgerald combined for 11 receptions and 170 yards in that game, nearly 40% of their offense yet both are uncertain for the rematch three months later. With them, Arizona has the eleventh lowest completion percentage (59.3) which is certain to drop if Bryant Johnson is their #1. Behind him, their reception leaders are backup running back Arrington (21) and tight end Pope (19). They have a combined 414 yards. Making matters worse, Seattle has the NFL’s best QB rating allowed (68.5) with an NFL low 7 touchdown passes and the third lowest completion percentage against (58.2) with the second most sacks (36). They will certainly force Arizona to run, and they have the fifth lowest average rush (3.6). Seattle’s run defense is mediocre and they have given up the third most rushing touchdowns (14). On the other side Matt Hasselbeck continued to quietly lead his offense to their fourth straight victory. Eight times he has thrown multiple touchdown passes and nine times he has thrown for at least 222 yards. The Seahawks are 5-1 at home having won every time they scored 20+. Arizona is 2-4 on the road where they allow an average of 23.7 points. This will be a typical workmanlike victory for a team rolling to their fourth division title in a row and fifth straight trip to the playoffs: Seattle 27, Arizona 13

 

Pittsburgh (9-3) @ New England (12-0): pick PIT +15/under 52.5

 

With history on the line the Steelers are once again in the way of the Patriots. In 2004 New England had won 18 regular season games in a row only to fall 34-20 at Heinz Field. Three months later they won the game that mattered, 41-27 in the AFC Championship Game as they marched to their last Super Bowl title. The following season they beat Pittsburgh in the regular season, but were upset by Denver in the playoffs and wound up watching the Steelers hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Last year the teams didn’t meet and this year it appears a playoff rematch could be in the works for the third time in four years. It seems like momentum is building for New England to finally lose. They needed rallies to beat Philadelphia and Baltimore who both have losing records. Brady’s record breaking season is still awesome. Perhaps it is a little less astronomical of late. He is on pace for 4,928 yards passing, 155 yards shy of Marino’s record. With 41 touchdowns he needs 9 to beat Manning’s mark although 60 is out of the question. At 123.4 he is still on pace to set the QB rating over Manning (121.1). Most impressively he has just 6 interceptions, second fewest in the NFL despite having the fifth most pass attempts. Roethlisberger is having a good season himself. Pittsburgh is third in team QB rating (100.2) and TD passes (25). New England leads the league in completion percentage (70.1) with the Steelers fourth (66.0). Defensively the Steelers can provide more resistance though. They have the lowest completion percentage allowed (53.1) and the second lowest opposing QB rating (69.4). The Patriots are twelfth and tenth in those categories. New England might finally be forced to mount a running game. Ironically both teams average 4.1 yards per rush. The Pats have Maroney healthy, but he has just 10.7 carries per game in six outings since returning to the lineup. How in the world has New England managed a #8 ranking in rushing yards at 121.3? Again, the resistance is in Pittsburgh’s favor. Their run defense ranks third with 3.6 yards per carry allowed while New England is #19 (4.1). Can the Steelers control the ball with Willie Parker? He averages a hefty 23.8 carries per game, but the mileage might be wearing him down. His last three games have produced just 73.3 yards per game and a 3.01 yard average. I think they can slow down the Patriots, but this is really looking like their year to keep the champagne of the 1972 Dolphins on ice: New England 27, Pittsburgh 21

 

Kansas City (4-8) @ Denver (5-7): pick DEN -6.5/over 37

 

In the mild, mild AFC West it is a wonder these teams still have a chance to win the division. The Chiefs can fix that by upsetting their rivals after the Broncos dusted them off 27-11 at Arrowhead a month ago. However, they have lost all five games they played since entering the bye week 4-3. In those games they have been outscored 23-14 with an offense that hasn’t gotten going all year. Damon Huard should make another start at quarterback, but he is just about finished. In 10 games he has turned it over 16 times while being sacked 32 times including seven last week. Kolby Smith is a shot in the arm at running back in Larry Johnson’s absence and faces the NFL’s second worst run defense in average carry allowed (4.6). The Chiefs aren’t much better (4.2) and they face veteran rusher Travis Henry who is revitalized after winning his appeal. Denver’s pass defense has been surprisingly much worse than Kansas City. They have the fifth highest QB rating allowed (90.5) and fifth most TD passes given up (20). The Chiefs have the seventh lowest QB rating (74.9) and the third fewest TD passes (10). At home Denver has been far from dominant at 3-3 having allowed an average of 25.2 points. However, Kansas City is 2-3 on the road where they have scored only 13.0 points. I don’t feel like the Chiefs have any spark right now. They haven’t beaten a good team since September. The Broncos realize what they have thrown away with two road losses the past two weeks. They are tired from playing four of their last five on the road and will get right at home: Denver 28, Kansas City 15

 

Cleveland (7-5) @ NY Jets (3-9): pick CLE -3/over 47.5

 

Even after last week’s loss the Browns are in prime position to hold onto a wild card. While the Titans have to deal with San Diego and a finale in Indianapolis they play no teams with a winning record. New York has been out of the race for a long time, but has shown some spark in winning two of their last three. It will have to start with quarterback Kellen Clemens who has revenge on his mind. The last time he met up with Derek Anderson was in the “Civil War”. Clemens was on the Oregon side of a 50-21 Oregon State win back in 2004 that knocked his Ducks out of bowl eligibility. Anderson passed for 351 yards and 4 touchdowns while Clemens went 13/29 for 126 yards and 3 interceptions. He also had three touchdown passes, the last of which made it 27-21 before the Beavers took over. They went on to beat Notre Dame in the Insight Bowl. Clemens did get the better of Anderson the previous year in the win column, but was only 11/26 for 125 yards with another 3 touchdowns while Anderson passed for 271 yards. This time Clemens gets a defense allowing an NFL high 27 touchdown passes so maybe another three is a possibility. In terms of QB rating New York is ninth worst (88.2) just ahead of Cleveland (89.6). Clearly the Browns have been more successful in their passing offense. Anderson has eight games with multiple TD passes and nine games with 245+ yards passing. The Browns have a more productive rushing offense as well. Thomas Jones finally recorded a rushing touchdown last week and the Jets have the third fewest (5) overall. Both teams struggle to stop the run with Cleveland the second worst in average rush (4.6) and New York not far behind (4.3). The biggest question for the Jets is if they can score with the Browns. Last week’s 40 point outburst against Miami aside, they have just two other games over 20 points all year. Since losing 34-7 on opening day to Pittsburgh the Browns have been held under 21 just once, a 34-17 loss to New England. They can simply outscore them: Cleveland 31, NY Jets 27

 

Indianapolis (10-2) @ Baltimore (4-8): pick BAL +10/under 44

 

Are we over the whole thing where the Colts left this city in the cover of darkness? Sorry, that’s always the first thing I think of when these teams meet. When the schedule came out this looked like a great meeting of the defending champs against the 13-3 team they knocked out of the playoffs. In that one a soccer game broke out with Vinatieri kicking 5 field goals to Stover’s 2 in a 15-6 game. Things have changed quite a bit since then. The Ravens are now coming off an emotionally draining Monday night loss to New England. They felt they were robbed by the officials. It was their sixth loss in a row. Three of their wins have come against the NFC West (sans Seattle) and the other was against the Jets. During this losing streak their defense has been roughed up for 28.3 points per game. The Colts have scored 28+ eight times already including four times on the road where they are 5-1. Baltimore can certainly stop the run with their NFL low 2.8 yards per carry against. Their pass defense is pretty ordinary and that spells trouble against Peyton Manning. Even without his full complement of receivers he is still an elite quarterback. The past two weeks he has 560 yards passing with 7 touchdowns against 2 turnovers. Boller had probably his best game of the year last week going 15/23 for 210 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. I wouldn’t be expecting a repeat showing against the Indy pass defense that has the fifth lowest QB rating (73.3) allowed and the fourth most interceptions (16). In the running game both teams rank in the middle with 4.0 yards per rush. McGahee had a huge game last week with 30 carries for 138 yards playing with the emotion of Sean Taylor’s passing. I think this is going to be a letdown game for him and a lot the Ravens. The Colts have to be at their best knowing any slip could put them out of a first round bye and needing to hit the road multiple times, as they did last year, to make the Super Bowl: Indianapolis 22, Baltimore 17

 

New Orleans (5-7) @ Atlanta (3-9): pick NO -4/over 42.5

 

When will flex scheduling be available for Monday Night Football? Last week ESPN set a cable record for viewers, beating out High School Musical 2 with New England’s dramatic win over Baltimore. This week I’ll be surprised if the player’s parents watch the game. This is certainly nothing like their last meeting on MNF, an emotional return for the Saints following hurricane Katrina. Now it’s the Falcons just playing out the string following three straight losses and the Saints staggering their way out of wild card contention with three losses in their past four. New Orleans is against the wall, but doesn’t have an overwhelming final stretch with Arizona (6-6) Philadelphia (5-7) and a trip to Chicago (5-7) left. They need to figure out how to run the football and this could be the week. They have the third lowest rushing average (3.5) while Atlanta has the sixth highest rushing average allowed (4.3). Bush is feeling the pressure and needs to get the football more than 19.3 times per game. On the other side Atlanta has the third fewest rushing touchdowns (5) against a New Orleans team that has given up the fifth fewest (5). Dunn is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and Norwood still hasn’t been completely unleashed. It could be up to Harrington who hasn’t had a big day since September. This could be the day for him as well against a New Orleans pass defense allowing an NFL high QB rating (95.5) and 21 touchdown passes, fourth most in the NFL. Last week Brees had just his third outing without a turnover, but they still lost. However, since a poor opening four games he has 19 touchdown passes in his last eight games and 2,247 yards. It doesn’t take a math genius to double those and figure out what kind of player he has been in the past two months. In primetime I think Bush puts on a show and the Falcons fold by halftime: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 16