Arizona (1-1) @ Baltimore (1-1): pick AZ +8/under 35

 

Maybe I’m the only one intrigued with this game because it might feature a pair of Pac-10 quarterbacks if Boller gets the nod for the Ravens. He played well last week in a win over the Jets where he faced yet another Pac-10 quarterback (Kellen Clemens, Oregon). McGahee is off to a mediocre start running the ball whereas the savvy vet James has done well with an increased workload for Whisenhunt’s new look Arizona offense. However, no one runs on Baltimore. Leinart will have to test a likewise tough secondary if the visitors hope to have a chance. I just don’t see it yet with this team. Boldin and Fitzgerald are both struggling to catch passes with a combined 18 receptions for 212 yards and a single touchdown. If that is their one dimension I have to take the Ravens because they are going to wear them down in the field position game: Baltimore 19, Arizona 12

 

San Diego (1-1) @ Green Bay (2-0): pick SD -4.5/over 43.5

 

Is Norv Turner a loser? People might start to think that after his team was throttled in New England last week. Tomlinson has 134 total yards and 1 touchdown. His offense is averaging 232.0 yards per game, or 82 fewer than the disastrous Raider team Turner left not long ago with far less talent. Maybe that’s why they say statistics are for losers. Green Bay is allowing more yards to their opponents yet stands 2-0 in spite of Favre’s 4 turnovers and a lead rushing averaging 2.3 yards per carry. There is a nice influx of youth on the Packers which will help them rise after Favre finally retires. For now they host a ticked off Charger team that two weeks ago held down by far the best team in Green Bay’s NFC North, possibly the whole conference: San Diego 27, Green Bay 21

 

Indianapolis (2-0) @ Houston (2-0): pick IND -5/under 47.5

 

Colts and Texans for first place in the AFC South, eh? This might have been an exciting game until stud receiver Andre Johnson was ruled out for the home team. He has accounted for 58% of the passing done by new quarterback Matt Schaub and all 3 touchdown receptions. Without him the onus rests on untested players and the veteran backfield tandem of Green and Dayne. I love this Indianapolis defense right now. Their “depleted” secondary due to free agency defections simply got young and hungry. They are going to chew up this one dimensional offense. Defensively Houston has thus far been great against the run, but this isn’t the erratic attack of Kansas City or Carolina facing them: Indianapolis 28, Houston 17

 

Minnesota (1-1) @ Kansas City (0-2): pick KC -2.5/over 33

 

These are probably two of the five worst teams in the NFL right now and it comes down to poor play at quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson is a mistake for the Vikings that will have to be corrected in the next draft. Not drafting Quinn was actually a good move for them because this next draft class is deep and they are happy to have Adrian Peterson (281 total yards). Jackson’s 4 interceptions cost them dearly last week. Huard has 3 turnovers on the season leading an offense that has outscored only the dismal Falcons. Larry Johnson has found tough sledding behind a depleted offensive line and it trickles down from there. On the plus side they are at Arrowhead Stadium where their defense always steps it up a notch. It is also their home opener. Jackson is going to make more mistakes than Huard and Johnson will on this day show up Peterson in the running back duel: Kansas City 24, Minnesota 10

 

Buffalo (0-2) @ New England (2-0): pick NE -16.5/under 42

 

How wide is the gap between the Patriots and the rest of the division? This game will be a pretty good illustration. They have already wiped out two playoff teams by identical 38-14 scores and now face a totally inept offense which is incapable of threatening them. Losman was supposed to be breaking through this season. Thus far he has 251 yards and no touchdown passes. Lynch has done what he can (154 yards, 4.2 average) but the revamped offensive line hasn’t translated to increased production. Their opponents have gained 445 yards per game to their 203 which is by far the worst deficit in the NFL. Pittsburgh and Denver are solid teams, but not elite. The Patriots are elite without question. They could really embarrass them if they wanted to. They don’t: New England 31, Buffalo 9

 

Miami (0-2) @ NY Jets (0-2): pick NYJ -3/under 35.5

 

This is already a game both teams need to have if they want to dream of a wild card in the AFC. The Jets were hoping Thomas Jones brought stability to their running game, but after two outings has just a 2.9 average and no touchdowns. In fact, statistically all the way around both teams are struggling. New York was blown away at home by New England, Miami by Dallas. New York lost a relatively tight game at Baltimore, Miami to nearby Washington. Similar start to the season, but this is where they separate. Trent Green has helped the Dolphin offense and also hurt it with 4 interceptions. Brown needs relief at running back and isn’t the top 5 player he was expected to be. I like New York’s defense to rise up at home and really make the difference in this game with a few key plays. It should be a typical AFC East slugfest: NY Jets 17, Miami 13

 

Detroit (2-0) @ Philadelphia (0-2): pick DET +6/over 44

 

More than a few people would have expected these teams to have the opposite records through a pair of games, but the season isn’t played on paper. It shouldn’t surprise anyone why McNabb is struggling. He has no true #1 wide receiver. Jason Avant leads the team at the position with 8 receptions, one more than he had last year in his entire rookie season. Supposed stud Reggie Brown has caught three. Westbrook is really all this team has, but even with 293 total yards he has been held without a touchdown. Their solid defensive play (#6 in yards allowed) hasn’t saved them either. They are on the ropes and the Lions would love to knock them to the canvas. Kitna’s prediction of 10 wins is 20% complete and he would love to make it 30%. Unlike the Eagles there are plenty of wide receivers on this team, four with at least 112 yards. They haven’t done much running yet although Tatum Bell has been good when given the chance (4.2 average, 101 yards). This is really the Detroit offense against the Philly defense. In this stadium I like the Eagles to win that battle. Even if the Lions won in Oakland they are still 7-42 in their last 49 road games: Philadelphia 24, Detroit 21

 

San Francisco (2-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-0): pick PIT -8.5/under 38

 

There are 10 Super Bowl titles between these two teams and while neither has lost yet both still have much to prove before staking claim to a record sixth championship. The Steelers picked on a pair of weak teams in Cleveland and Buffalo, even if they did rout them. The 49ers needed rallies to nose out mediocre division rivals Arizona and St. Louis. They also sport the NFL’s worst offense and have allowed their opponents to gain 136.5 more yards per game than them. Going up against a very strong defense I see no reason to expect them to be competitive at Heinz Field. Gore is off to a sluggish start in the backfield for San Francisco and will find it even tougher this week. Alex Smith just isn’t ready to bail him out: Pittsburgh 27, San Francisco 10

 

St. Louis (0-2) @ Tampa Bay (1-1): pick TB -3.5/under 38

 

The Bucs really surprised me last week by spanking New Orleans. Really the game boiled down to Galloway burning their weak secondary deep. His two big touchdowns put them up 21-0 and allowed the defense to get after a rattled New Orleans offense. This week they face another team struggling to find their offensive groove. While Bruce and Holt (312 yards receiving combined) have been solid, Bennett has yet to replace Curtis while McMichael is still finding his way at tight end. Bulger’s yardage is fine, but he has just 2 touchdown passes for a team averaging just 12.5 points per game. This is not a good place to come if you are struggling to score, especially in September. Steven Jackson is really the wild card because he could simply take over. In that case all bets are off. I’m not sure he is ready based on his early season performances: Tampa Bay 20, St. Louis 16

 

Jacksonville (1-1) @ Denver (2-0): pick DEN -3/over 35.5

 

The Jags are a team I thought could be almost dominant before the season began. That was before Tennessee ran right over them. The Broncos are another team capable of treating them the same way. Travis Henry has been a great addition with 267 yards rushing and another 52 receiving. Denver is always solid on the stat sheet and this year is no exception. Even if they needed to kick their way to both wins and could easily be 0-2 they are #1 in yards gained and #2 in yards allowed with a +237 yard average. Jacksonville counters with Taylor and Jones’Drew, but they have yet to get on track with a combined 40 carries for 135 yards. All the way around I like the home team. Shanahan pulled a sneaky move to help them win last week. This time he won’t need it: Denver 26, Jacksonville 17

 

Cleveland (1-1) @ Oakland (0-2): pick OAK -3/under 40.5

 

The Raiders have to be feeling down after letting another game slip away last week. With five minutes to play they led Detroit 21-20 and Denver 20-17 so they are making progress on their 2-14 disaster. Now comes a crazy Browns team hot off a 51-45 barnburner over state rival Cincinnati. There is no way they bring that kind of offense against this Raider defense. The secondary is too opportunistic for Derek Anderson and the line is not going to let Jamal Lewis run like it’s 2003 as he did against the Bengals. Oakland’s biggest issue is getting more out of the quarterback position. McCown has already thrown 5 interceptions and been sacked 7 times. At least none of his 5 fumbles went over to the opponent. Jerry Porter is getting open down the field and they need Culpepper in there to deliver the ball. If they get behind it could happen. They might not though because Jordan is revitalized with 328 total yards and 2 touchdowns. He should help them control the game. After two near misses they get it done: Oakland 23, Cleveland 17

 

Cincinnati (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1): pick CIN +3.5/over 50.5

 

Both of these teams were expected to be very successful this season yet both lost last week to teams who were last in their respective division in 2006 with 11+ losses. The Seahawks dug out of a 17-0 hole with twenty straight points only to allow a pair of field goals in the final five minutes to lose at Arizona. The Bengals were in a track meet at Cleveland and took the lead three times in the opening half, but never led in the second half during a shocking 51-45 loss. When trying to rebound it is always better to be at home. The Seahawks are 27-6 in the regular season at home since the start of the 2003 season. However, the Bengals are a solid 10-7 on the road in the last two plus years. One thing I know for sure is that points will be flying. Perhaps the difference is that Palmer has better talent at his disposal with Houshmandzadeh and Johnson compared to Engram, Branch and Burleson. It will be an exciting game, but ultimately I have to take the AFC team: Cincinnati 34, Seattle 31

 

Carolina (1-1) @ Atlanta (0-2): pick CAR -4/over 36.5

 

After looking pretty good in the opening week by stomping St. Louis the Panthers took a big step back when Houston smacked them around. It looks like a lot of teams will be doing that to the Falcons this season. Harrington is more or less completing short passes and that’s it while the running game has taken a huge hit now that Vick’s yards are out of the equation. The Panthers finally appear to have Foster and Williams ready to make an impact on the ground having combined for 49 carries and 209 yards. Steve Smith is still a one man gang catching the ball (271 yards, 52% of pass offense) but he is the home run hitter the Falcons just don’t have. After Minnesota beat up Atlanta I would just about favor every team in the league over them even in their own stadium. Or in the Home Depot parking lot: Carolina 28, Atlanta 15

 

NY Giants (0-2) @ Washington (2-0): pick NYG +4/under 40.5

 

When an opponent is down you have to take them out. The Redskins need to view this game with a sense of urgency. They can prove they are a legit contender for the NFC East title and enter the bye week with a lot of confidence. New York is probably finished if they don’t win given that the Eagles and Jets visit them next. It is time for Eli Manning to take this team on his, uh, bad shoulder and get them some victories. His opposite number Jason Campbell is certainly not the reason Washington is 2-0, but he has been steady enough for the team to overcome his 3 interceptions. Portis and Betts keep the chains moving on the ground while the defense has starting coming around after a horrible 2006 campaign. This game is really a tossup. It comes down to which team makes the crucial error. I think the Redskins are less likely to do it because they will stick to the run. Manning will be asked to win it and there are good players at safety for the Redskins ready to take on the other way: Washington 17, NY Giants 14

 

Dallas (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1): pick DAL +3/under 42

 

This could very well be your NFC Championship Game preview unless the Saints wake up. A week after bottling up Tomlinson, the Chargers did the same to Larry Johnson. Now they get Barber who has a 6.2 average on 25 carries yet somehow gets less work than Jones. It will be a tough go this week for either back. The same goes for Chicago’s Benson who has averaged 3.3 per carry in his debut as the feature player and takes on a good Dallas front line. If the tiebreaker is quarterback play I think you know where this is going. In primetime on Sunday Night Football you have to go with pretty boy Romo over the erratic Grossman. He is off to a solid start to the season and already has a convincing win in hostile territory (Miami). This could be the game everyone looks back on as the start to a Dallas run at the conference title: Dallas 19, Chicago 17

 

Tennessee (1-1) @ New Orleans (0-2): pick NO -4/over 45.5

 

It is almost time to panic for the Saints, and losing this game would mean pushing the red button with both hands. Brees has 1 touchdown pass. McAllister and Bush have a combined 152 yards rushing (64 receiving) and no touchdowns period. Colston has caught 14 passes, but is averaging just 8.4 yards per reception in what could be a sophomore slump. The defense has been burned deep regularly. Now the question is how good are the Titans and what can we expect from Vince Young in the spotlight of Monday Night Football? He might not need to do much if Brown (209 yards) and White (130 yards) continue to run the ball at will. Speaking of which, will White have more yards than his former USC backfield mate Bush? The Titans have done a good job stopping the run so far while the Saints have not. Something tells me New Orleans has to wake up in this game. Tennessee is a young team that will try to do too much in a nationally televised contest: New Orleans 31, Tennessee 20