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Saturday, November 18 2017

NFL Predictions 2007: Week 5

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I won’t be winning any pick’em pools, but I have held my own against Vegas. It was a tough 7-7 straight up to leave me 37-25 (59.7%). Another winner against the spread at 8-6 leaves me 31-27-4 overall. A 10-3-1 burst on the over/under erased three weeks of damager putting me above .500 at 31-30-1.

Miami (0-4) @ Houston (2-2): pick HOU -5.5/under 43.5
 
The Dolphins were thoroughly embarrassed by the Raiders last week while the Texans ate some humble pie cooked up by the Falcons. Neither is anywhere close to contenders in the AFC even with a few of the better teams (Jets, Broncos, Ravens) stumbling out of the gate. Miami can’t stop the run, and even if Ahman Green is unavailable they will probably make Ron Dayne look like the Heisman trophy winner out of Wisconsin again. Schaub lost his return to the Georgia Dome, but managed 317 yards passing on 40 attempts without an interception despite not having Andre Johnson in the lineup. He has been a steadying presence and is on pace to suffer just 24 sacks whereas the team gave up 42 last year and 68 in 2005. Sacks are drive killers. Ronnie Brown has been a yardage monster the past two weeks both running the ball (36 carries for 246 yards) and catching it (12 receptions for 172 yards) while scoring 4 touchdowns. Now he has to do it against an improved, young, athletic group of Texan defenders. Trent Green’s decision making is looking like he still has a concussion one year later. The Dolphins are falling apart. Combined with playing on the road against a team trying to stay in contention and this is what you get: Houston 28, Miami 10
 
Detroit (3-1) @ Washington (2-1): pick DET +3.5/under 46.5
 
Just when you thought the Lions were coming back to reality they explode in the fourth quarter to dust off Chicago. Adding in O’Sullivan’s relief appearance this offense has passed for 343.8 yards per game. Calvin Johnson getting hurt was barely a blip on their radar with Williams, McDonald and Furrey around. Now Kevin Jones might be able to contribute at running back? Ten wins suddenly doesn’t look unrealistic, even with a shoddy defense. However, this week I’m not sure how well they match up with the Redskins who are at home coming off a bye week. Their safety duo of Taylor and Landry can get it done. Washington can run the ball with Portis and Betts to keep Kitna’s circus on the sideline. Their game plan certainly won’t be to see if Campbell can lead them to a 38-35 victory. The venue slows down the Lions. Gibbs will be happy to punt and trust his defense to make the key turnover. Given Kitna’s history I think you can expect it: Washington 22, Detroit 20
 
Atlanta (1-3) @ Tennessee (2-1): pick TEN -8/over 40.5
 
There will be no 0-16 season for the Falcons, so that is a relief. However, this team is still in disarray under first year coach Bobby Petrino. On the bright side it appears Harrington can pass the ball a little (245.8 yards per game) and has revealed Roddy White to be a viable target (301 yards). Heck, even Michael Jenkins has 15 receptions after collecting just 82 of Vick’s passes over the previous 46 games of his career. Unfortunately, this week they face a team who has thus far taken away the run (#2, 63.3 yards) while dominating on the ground themselves (#2, 173.7 yards). If the Titans can put Harrington behind there is little chance for the Falcons to mount a comeback. Vince Young should have been a Raider because “just win, baby” fits his stat lines. A 10-6 career record with 2,492 yards passing and 14 touchdowns? He has gotten the job done so there is nothing to question. In th backfield LenDale White is living up to what he was at a senior for USC while Chris Brown has stayed healthy so far. Sure, they have no wide receivers to speak of, but this team has lived on running the ball while playing defense. It has worked so far and the Falcons have no answer: Tennessee 27, Atlanta 14
 
Arizona (2-2) @ St. Louis (0-4): pick AZ -3/over 40.5
 
This was supposed to be a wide open NFC West race, but so far the Seahawks and Cardinals are the only teams playing like they want to win it. Arizona can drive the final nail in the coffin for the Rams who have been inexplicably inept on offense. Can they offer Detroit a first round pick for Mike Martz? It is one thing to lose. St. Louis has dropped games by 14, 21 and 28 points already. Their season scoring total is 41, a number fantasy football owners are used to seeing next to their output in a single game. Perhaps things wouldn’t be so bad if they had a defense to fall back on. Theirs is unable to stop the run and ranks #26 in points allowed (25.8). Pace’s absence at left tackle has killed their line play. Bulger is getting sacked a lot (11 times) again, and with Jackson hurt there is no running game to keep the opposing defense honest. Now Bulger is out in favor of Frerotte which might not be such a bad thing. Arizona comes in with problems of their own though, starting with ex-Ram Kurt Warner being plugged in at quarterback intermittently. Stud receiver Boldin missed last week’s game and his fellow starter Fitzgerald has voiced displeasure over the “run first” offense of Whisenhunt. I don’t know when the Rams will turn the switch and bite someone, but with James running the ball and equally capable receivers wearing the visiting uniforms it probably won’t be this week: Arizona 29, St. Louis 23
 
Seattle (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (3-1): pick SEA +6/under 40
 
Emotions will be at a fever pitch when the Seahawks enter Heinz Field two years after these teams met in Super Bowl XL. Many of their players still likely feel slighted by the officiating that led to Pittsburgh’s 21-10 victory. This will be an opportunity for a small measure of revenge. Through a quarter of the season the Steelers are looking like a well oiled machine despite their loss in the desert to Arizona last week. Other than pass offense they are in the top ten on both sides of the ball for all the major team categories. However, a soft schedule that began with wins over Cleveland, Buffalo and San Francisco has contributed to those stats. I see a well played game between two teams who can run a little, pass a little and play some defense. Let’s not overlook that these are two of the top 5 scoring defenses after the first month of games. It should boil down to mistakes. The sacks/turnovers for each quarterback are almost identical. Both field goal kickers are perfect. I suppose you can say the Steelers have a better punter and more dangerous return men. They are also at home, so it is their game to lose: Pittsburgh 20, Seattle 17
 
NY Jets (1-3) @ NY Giants (2-2): pick NYJ +3.5/over 41
 
It’s a good thing the Giants won last week or neither team might have any fans in the stands even though both teams play in this stadium. The Jets were supposed to have added stability in their running game with Thomas Jones while the Giants lost theirs when Tiki Barber retired. It hasn’t worked out that way. Jones has 254 yards (75 carries) while virtual nobody Derrick Ward leads the Giants with 353 yards (73 carries). When the Jets move the ball it is their C&C reception factory of Cotchery (26) and Coles (24) who are both among the NFL’s top 10 in catches. The Giants have more stability at quarterback with Manning, but Pennington is coming off a sharp performance (32 of 39) despite losing at Buffalo. Which Giant defense will show up, the one that gave up 20 the past two weeks or 80 the two before that? The Jets have to be concerned about sack machine Umenyiora coming off his 6 sack performance since they have absorbed 11 so far. This is really a coin flip game with no true home field advantage to fall back on. Instead I believe the Jets get the nod because they are better than they have played so far this season. Their receivers will have a field day against this secondary: NY Jets 27, NY Giants 23
 
Carolina (2-2) @ New Orleans (0-3): pick NO -3/under 45
 
When will the pain end for the Saints? It is almost as if 2006 never happened. How can an offense littered with talent by averaging 12.7 points per game? By comparison the Raiders are currently doubling that figure. It starts with Brees who has 9 turnovers, or his total from 2004 and well on his way to eclipsing last year’s total (14). He has just one touchdown pass and has now lost Deuce McAllister as his lead rusher. The defense has been toasted through the air, and Steve Smith has to be relishing this opportunity. Well, maybe not considering David Carr should be starting at quarterback again. His 19/41 performance last week produced a dismal 155 yards, and he took 3 sacks during a 20-7 loss to Tampa Bay. They will need to get the running game going so he can get closer to 22-25 pass attempts if they want to win. The Saints just have to regain some confidence and get better play out of the offensive line. More big plays down the field would be nice too. Having had a week off I expect Sean Payton has installed some creativity into the game plan to get the Saints off the mat: New Orleans 26, Carolina 17
 
Cleveland (2-2) @ New England (4-0): pick NE -16.5/over 47.5
 
You can just about write down 30+ for the Patriots and maybe a dozen points for the opponent without any more analysis. They have walked by four teams with equal ease so far. They are #1 in total defense and #2 in total offense along with top 5 rankings in all the major team categories. Brady has completed 79% of his passes, and Moss is on pace to become the NFL’s first 2,000 yard receiver in a single season. Now they get Rodney Harrison back at safety. This could get ugly. Enter the Browns who have been a very scrappy bunch. Jamal Lewis is on pace for almost 1,500 yards rushing while Derek Anderson’s numbers project to over 3,800 yards passing even though he began the opener on the bench. Perhaps when the season began we thought it could be Brady (Quinn) vs. (Tom) Brady, but that’s a distant memory. Anderson’s 6 turnovers are the biggest concern. The Patriots are deadly at turning those into touchdowns. I love what Cleveland has done to essentially save Crennel’s job. Edwards and Winslow are playing up to the hype with a combined 38 receptions, 742 yards and 5 touchdowns but they don’t play defense. This is a team totally unable to stop the run or pass. They are nothing more than razor burn in this stadium: New England 37, Cleveland 15
 
Jacksonville (2-1) @ Kansas City (2-2): pick KC +2.5/under 36.5
 
The Jags have had a week off to perhaps reassess the start of their season. Wins over Atlanta and a sputtering Denver team are hardly impressive. Taylor and Jones-Drew have combined to average 3.56 yards per carry, way down from 5.26 last year. Dennis Northcutt of the 11 career touchdowns in 103 games is the team’s leading receiver. Meanwhile first round picks Williams and Jones have just 7 receptions for 88 yards between them although Williams does have 2 TD catches. Think they have problems? The Chiefs are #30 in rushing offense even with Larry Johnson. If not for Dwayne Bowe embarking on a Rookie of the Year campaign at wide receiver the past two weeks they might be 0-4. Huard’s play at quarterback has been uninspired at best. What they have keeping them afloat is defense, which we should see a lot of in this game. Both units are in the top 5 for yards allowed and top 10 for points given up. Both are in the bottom 11 on offense in those respective categories. One thing working for the visiting Jagaurs is rest. They had last week off while the Chiefs have played three of four on the road in Houston, Chicago and San Diego. Fatigue could be a factor in a defensive struggle. I rarely go against KC at Arrowhead though and I think their second half against the Chargers carries over: Kansas City 19, Jacksonville 15
 
Tampa Bay (3-1) @ Indianapolis (4-0): pick IND -10/under 46
 
It’s a battle of the South division leaders, and at least half of that equation was expected. After losing their season opener in Seattle the Bucs have reeled off three wins by at least two touchdowns. Their only “loss” has been running back Carnell Williams. I’m not sure how much of an impact that will truly have on their #8 run offense though. Pittman and Graham have combined for 306 yards on 60 carries, a healthy 5.10 average compared to the 3.85 for Williams on his 54 rushes. Garcia has effectively managed the game which is to say he hasn’t screwed anything up. His completion percentage (64.4) is adequate and he has yet to commit a turnover while absorbing only 4 sacks. Sure, his yardage (192.8) is low and he has just 2 touchdown passes, but the bottom line is wins. This is all fine and good when the Colts aren’t on the other sideline. Manning has been dominant as usual. Addai is handling the lead rushing duties like a stud. The only bump has been the injury to Harrison, but with this many weapons will it matter? The last time these teams met Tony Dungy got revenge on the team that dumped him with a 38-35 victory over the defending champions in their stadium. Might Jon Gruden be the spoiler this time? Nah, the Colts simply have too much going for them to let the little engine that could steamroll them in their building: Indianapolis 27, Tampa Bay 16
 
San Diego (1-3) @ Denver (2-2): pick SD +1.5/over 41.5
 
Suddenly the once mighty AFC West is looking like the worst division outside of the East. Norv Turner was supposed to bring a better offense to the Chargers who were stuck playing “Martyball”. Instead he has gotten 16 points or less in three of four games while watching last year’s #7 scoring defense give up 30+ the last three games. If there was a game where I could see the offense starting up, this would be it though. Denver has the #31 run defense (181.0 yards) and San Diego has the reigning MVP Tomlinson. LT has only 19.3 carries per game so far. He might have that many in the first half. It would keep Rivers from turning it over (6 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost). His opposite number Cutler has also been struggling with turnovers (6) and has been bailed out by a solid running game led by Travis Henry. Defensively the numbers are slanted a bit considering no one wants to pass on the Broncos with Bailey and Bly back there, not to mention Lynch at safety. Now Lynch is ailing, and I don’t know how they will scheme to cover the tight end Gates who typically wouldn’t command one of the starting corners. I see San Diego just running the ball right down Denver’s throat in this one. If it doesn’t work they will just keep hammering. If Turner is going down in flames, he will do it using his best player. The Broncos are a well coached team and will compete, but at some point the team we saw dominate last year on both sides of the ball will show up: San Diego 28, Denver 24
 
Baltimore (2-2) @ San Francisco (2-2): pick BAL -3/under 35.5
 
A 2-0 start is a distant memory for the 49ers. Stats might be for losers according to some, but they finally caught up to them during consecutive wipeout losses. Now their only hope is a veteran quarterback who just so happened to lead the opposing Ravens to a Super Bowl title earlier in this decade, and now steps in for Alex Smith. Dilfer was a disaster in relief last week against another of his former teams (Seattle) but that’s two years of built up rust. Now at least he’ll have a fighting chance against a defense that can be dominant. This season Baltimore has gotten touched up a little including last week’s stunning 27-13 loss at Cleveland, but they are still #10 in total yards allowed. McGahee is doing his job running the ball with a 4.7 average. Unfortunately the team isn’t making enough plays to finish off drives because he has yet to score a rushing touchdown. On the other hand it is hard to expect a sluggish starting Gore (3.7 average) to ramp it up against the #4 run defense (71.0 yards). This is going to be the ugliest game of the week, and could come down to the specialists. San Francisco punter Andy Lee was their only weapon last week, averaging an amazing 54.3 yards on 10 punts. He now leads the NFL at 49.7 per punt which could help them win the battle of field position. Veterans Stover (Baltimore) and Nedney (San Francisco) are both off to good starts, but Nedney has better range. With some luck the 49ers can contend, but they won’t win: Baltimore 16, San Francisco 12
 
Chicago (1-3) @ Green Bay (4-0): pick GB -3/over 40
 
This season is turning into a nightmare for the defending NFC champion Bears. Last week it looked like they would turn away this season’s upstart division leading Lions before a 34 point fourth quarter did them in. Now it is another former dreg of the NFC North staring back at them, ready to put this team down for the count in front of a national television audience. The change to Griese might have been what the players wanted, but he still threw 3 interceptions in a losing cause. All three were in Detroit territory and two within field goal range. Adding to their woes Cedric Benson appears to be a slug in the backfield with a 3.2 yard average in what was supposed to be his breakout year. Speaking of poor rushing, the Packers are 4-0 while putting up a dismal 54.3 yards per game, 20 less than any other NFL team. Yeah, they might miss Ahman Green. Masking this deficiency is Favre playing like his old self with over 300 yards per game, 8 TD passes and a 97.3 quarterback rating. His defense is young and hungry. Overall they must be gaining confidence as a team with every snap. This doesn’t feel like a game where the old guard will rise up and for one night show why they are the champions. Instead Favre will be dancing all over Lambeau as the Super Bowl loser curse lives on: Green Bay 28, Chicago 19
 
Dallas (4-0) @ Buffalo (1-3): pick DAL -10/under 45.5
 
It is hard to understand why this game was chosen for Monday Night Football. Did someone think we were back in the 90’s? This is no Aikman vs. Kelly Super Bowl pairing. Instead it is the league’s hottest new quarterback (Romo) against a rookie (Edwards) who just might be the new savior for the Bills before this night is over. Joining the Stanford signal caller in the backfield is another rookie who played his college ball in the Bay Area, former Cal running back Marshawn Lynch who has the team rushing stats up over last year. Buffalo has spread the ball to Parrish, Reed and Evans equally, but the team has only 1 touchdown through the air in 4 games. It has been a pretty bleak start really when you consider they are dead last in yards allowed (430.3) and #31 in yards gained (226.0). You will not win many games giving up 204.3 more yards than you gain. Opponents have piled up 23.5 first downs per game and a defense reeling with two free agent departures at linebacker is without rookie Paul Posluszny for the season. I like their young secondary, but this Dallas offense has taken no prisoners. Witten is playing like a star tight end again. Owens is doing his thing and when defenses take them away Romo just throws to Crayton as he did last week, or Hurd. Barber and Jones are the most unheralded backfield duo in the league with 482 yards and 5 touchdowns between them. This would be an upset to end all upsets if it happened. Tune in for the first half just in case. By then it should be over. Here’s a score that should ring bells: Dallas 30, Buffalo 13
NFL Predictions 2007: Week 5 | 64 comments | Create New Account
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NFL Predictions 2007: Week 5
Authored by: dbsmall onSunday, October 07 2007
Week 5 Norcalfella Dbsmall Vegas Line O/U
SUN, OCT 7 Comments Home Away Home Away


Miami at Houston Mia just can't be that bad! 28 10 14 17 HOU-5 43.5

Atlanta at Tennessee Essentially, same forecast 27 14 27 13 TEN-8 40.5

Jacksonville at Kansas City
19 15 20 21 JAX-2 36

NY Jets at NY Giants Return of NYG running game 23 27 24 20 NYG-3.5 40.5

Carolina at New Orleans
26 17 21 24 NO-3 44

Arizona at St. Louis I expect less offense... 23 29 14 20 ARI-3.5 40.5

Cleveland at New England One of us expects a blowout:D 37 15 24 20 NE-16.5 48.5

Seattle at Pittsburgh
20 17 24 23 PIT-6 40

Detroit at Washington S. Moss out 22 20 17 24 WAS-3.5 46

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis
27 16 27 24 IND-9.5 45

San Diego at Denver SD won't win in Denver, this year 24 28 24 20 DEN-1 43

Baltimore at San Francisco
12 16 14 21 BAL-3.5 35

Chicago at Green Bay
28 19 21 20 GB-3 40.5
MON, OCT 8







Dallas at Buffalo
13 30 16 26 DAL-10 45
· Bye: Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, Philadelphia








Quite a few differences, this week.  From bottom to top:
Norv Turner is exposed for what he is, and Denver knows how to play, especially at home.
Detroit has a magic air attack.  Until Kitna is out for the season (seems to get sacked an awful lot), Washington's offense has no way of competing (Randle El ain't it.)
I'm probably wrong on CAR/NO...I just think Carolina's a better team than their last few seasons seem to reflect.  They're like the anti 80's Raiders---"Just lose, baby".
No explanation on NYG...I'm probably wrong, there.  I just figure Giants running game should get a boost this week with the return of their starter.
I don't know that we disagree too much on KC/JAX...JAX is a better team, though.
And who really cares about MIA/HOU?  I expect Ronnie Brown to continue to do well, he expects him to fail.
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