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Tuesday, August 14 2018

NFL Predictions 2007: Week 8

SportI had another middle of the road performance starting with a 9-5 showing to leave me 65-38 overall (63.1%). Yet another losing week against the spread at 6-8, digging a bigger hole for my season (45-51-7). I did manage to recover on the over/under at 8-5-1 pushing me further ahead on the year (56-45-2).
Indianapolis (6-0) @ Carolina (4-2): pick IND -6/under 44.5
 
The Panthers had last week off and might have David Carr start at quarterback. Is this a good thing? Vinny Testaverde sparked the team to a win over Arizona, getting the deep ball to Steve Smith. Then again it might not matter going up against the #1 pass defense. The young Colt secondary has had mixed results though. Even though they are leading in yardage, they have given up the sixth highest completion percentage (66.5) so Carolina’s best shot it is to go with short passes and ball control with their #8 ranked rushing offense. Indy has a mediocre run defense ranking #22 in yards per carry allowed (4.2). If Foster and Williams can hold the ball (4 fumbles lost combined) they can help keep Manning and the offense on the sideline. When the Colts do take over they have to attack a defense ranked #10 in yards per carry allowed (3.8). Passing for touchdowns will be difficult for both sides as each secondary has allowed just 5 touchdown passes this season, second fewest in the NFL. I see a slugfest coming. Indianapolis is again on the road coming off a short week. Carolina is well rested off the bye, and I believe they can sustain some long drives. In the end there is no way Manning loses this game to Carr or Testaverde. The Panthers will suffer from sacks or turnovers which makes the difference in the game as they lose another home game: Indianapolis 27, Carolina 17
 
Detroit (4-2) @ Chicago (3-4): pick CHI -4.5/over 43.5
 
In their first meeting the Bears took a 13-3 lead into the fourth quarter. Then all hell broke loose. Each team wound up with a kickoff return for a touchdown, Detroit had an interception return for a score and the Lions had 3 offensive touchdowns for a 37-27 win. At that time the Bears were really struggling and had just turned to Griese at quarterback. Now it appears they have climbed back into at least the wild card race by winning two of three since. In four game Griese is averaging 300.8 yards passing per game. Turnovers from the quarterback position still decide their fate. He has six in two losses, one in two wins. The advantage has to slide to Chicago against a pass defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes, 4.2 percent higher than any other NFL team. They have also given up 12 touchdown passes, fourth most in the NFL. Then again, Chicago’s secondary is #29 in completion percentage against (66.8%). Both teams rank in the bottom 10 for pass defense and bottom 5 in run offense meaning this could be an aerial show. One thing going for Detroit is Kevin Jones who gained 110 yards on 21 touches last week. He is an added spark for an already dangerous offense. Defensively, however, it is impossible to go against Chicago’s defense on this field: Chicago 26, Detroit 20
 
Pittsburgh (4-2) @ Cincinnati (2-4): pick PIT -3/over 48
 
Quietly Ben Roethlisberger has had himself a solid start to the season. His average game is 18/28 with 217 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 turnover. Pretty solid numbers as he prepares to face a secondary that has given up 16 touchdown passes, second most in the NFL, and ranks in the bottom 6 for pass, run and total defense. If the Bengals want to win this game they will need to match scores with the Steelers. That’s a tough task against a defense that ranks #3 in run and pass defense while sporting the #1 overall and scoring unit. By comparison, Pittsburgh has allowed less than half (78) the points Cincinnati has (187). It gets worse when comparing their common opponents. The Steelers beat Cleveland and Seattle by a combined 55-7 while the Bengals lost to both by a cumulative 75-66. The home team is desperate and this is their season right here. Chad Johnson won’t be celebrating until the team levels their record. If they don’t win this game that means no dancing until at least after Thanksgiving so you can expect optimum effort from him. Another bonus is the play of Kenny Watson running the football. Over the last two weeks he has 44 carries for 198 yards (4.50 average) and 3 touchdowns plus 6 receptions for 41 yards. He has to keep that up against a stout run defense for them to have a chance. Even if I can see Cincinnati rising to the occasion with their backs against the wall common sense tells me not to take that risk: Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 24
 
NY Giants (5-2) @ Miami (0-7): pick NYG -9.5/under 48
 
This game will be in London which spares the remaining Dolphin fans the pain of seeing their team beaten yet again. Thus far this season Chris Chambers and Ronnie Brown represent 34.7% of their passing game while Brown is 74.7% of their running game. When 60.3% of your total offense has been traded away or placed on IR it isn’t easy to formulate a game plan. Cleo Lemon is the definition of average at the quarterback position and now must face the brutal New York pass rush which leads the NFL with 27 sacks. With that kind of pressure is it any wonder opposing quarterbacks complete only 57.1% (#4) of their passes? Eli Manning isn’t going to have any such difficulties against a Miami secondary that has an opposing QB rating of 110.1, highest in the NFL. They have just 9 sacks, fifth fewest in the NFL. Even with those terrible numbers their opponents still run the ball an NFL high 35.6 times per game because they are ahead of Miami so much. This should be no different and with capable running backs the Giants can certainly field a balanced attack if they so choose. European fans will see a game that is about as dull as San Francisco’s tilt with Arizona in Mexico two years ago: NY Giants 27, Miami 6
 
Philadelphia (2-4) @ Minnesota (2-4): pick PHI +0/under 39.5
 
The mystique of the Eagles is starting to wear off. Their run of 4 consecutive NFC title game appearances seems so long ago even if they did win the division last year. That run was fueled by Jeff Garcia at quarterback. Under McNabb since their Super Bowl XXXIX appearance the team is 11-14 which could explain the drafting of Kevin Kolb. His play this year has been fairly uninspiring other than great performances in their two wins when he threw 5 of his season’s 7 touchdown passes and had an average of 329.5 yards passing. Otherwise he has 197 yards passing while completing just 54.7% of his throws. That’s not the Pro Bowl player they used to have, but at least they are more stable at the position than the Vikings. One would think that a broken finger on the throwing hand of a quarterback with a rating of 48.7 would be enough to sideline him immediately, but apparently Tarvaris Jackson is still in the mix to start this game. They have been totally unsuccessful passing the ball (151.8 yards, #30) despite having the league’s best running game led by probable rookie of year Adrian Peterson. This week neither team is likely to have success running the ball as both rank in the top 10 for opposing rushing yards per carry against while allowing a combined 3 touchdown runs in a dozen games. The Eagles counter with a short passing game and experienced quarterback while the Vikings have only home field advantage to fall back on unless Kelly Holcomb is ready for another of his huge days out of nowhere. The kickers will be busy and I like Akers a little more: Philadelphia 19, Minnesota 15
 
Cleveland (3-3) @ St. Louis (0-7): pick CLE -3/over 44
 
Something has to give in this one. The Browns have yet to win on the road while the Rams have yet to win period. Cleveland just beat the NFL’s other winless team Miami 41-31 prior to the bye and now has a chance to move above .500 by beating another hapless opponent. For St. Louis to break into the win column they have to wake up on offense. It would seem like an opportune time for that to happen as the team ranked dead last in yards allowed, but they are #30 in total yards gained and their offensive line is a mess. Bulger returned from injury last week only to commit 5 turnovers in a 33-6 loss at Seattle. His QB rating is 58.7, 30 points below his career average. The Browns can put a lot of pressure on the Rams by putting up some touchdowns. Anderson leads a passing game that trails only New England and Dallas is touchdown passes. Lewis appears ready to return at running back while Edwards and Winslow continue to produce big numbers. Cleveland should be able to move the ball against a very ordinary defense and keep their own defense off the field. Until the Rams show some life on offense other than tight end Randy McMichael guaranteeing a victory there is no reason to pick them: Cleveland 31, St. Louis 23
 
Oakland (2-4) @ Tennessee (4-2): pick TEN -7/under 41.5
 
Perhaps the Raiders lost their offense in the bye week. Since then they have just one offensive touchdown in each of their two losses to division rivals. The good news is that they are 2-1 against teams outside the AFC West and improving on defense where they haven’t been able to live up to last year’s performance. Tennessee can give them fits running the ball where no team has allowed more yards per carry than Oakland (5.2). Even with Chris Brown sidelined last week, LenDale White stepped up to run for 104 yards and rookie Chris Henry chipped in with 57. Now Young returns at quarterback and we will see how willing he is to run with a bum quad. Overall Tennessee should be able to move the ball in this game. Oakland counters with Culpepper leading a mediocre offense against a surprisingly solid defense. Until last week’s wild fourth quarter the Titans had allowed 14 or fewer points in four of their first five games and had given up just 7 to the Texans before the flood gates opened. Did that quarter rattle their confidence? If the Raiders are going to attack them it probably won’t be on the ground where Tennessee is #1 in run defense (59.7 yards per game) and third in yards per carry allowed (3.4). Oakland has shown very little in the passing game this year with no player on pace for 1,000 yards receiving. Curry leads the team with 26 receptions, the only receiver with more than 11 catches and the only player with over 240 yards receiving. Culpepper will have to have his best game as a Raider if they want to stay competitive. I wouldn’t bet on it: Tennessee 24, Oakland 16
 
Buffalo (2-4) @ NY Jets (1-6): pick BUF +3/under 38
 
The Bills are a tough team to figure out, but if not for two late field goals they could be 4-2. On the other hand they have been blown out twice and lost one of the aforementioned games to Dallas despite a 6-1 advantage in the turnover department. They are going with rookie Trent Edwards at quarterback full time, which gives them stability New York currently does not have. Pennington had a good showing last week in their 38-31 loss to Cincinnati with 272 yards passing and 3 touchdowns although he turned it over twice. At some point they have to realize he is not a franchise player and merely a mediocre backup. He has never thrown for more than 3,352 yards (last year’s total in his only 16 game season) and even in injury shortened seasons his pace has never been more than 3,422 yards. He has 19.3 touchdown passes per 16 games played, hardly gaudy numbers. Now last year’s wild card winner has been reduced to a team ranked in the bottom 5 for both overall offense and defense. Then again, Buffalo is #31 in both. Their leading receiver has 211 yards for the season and they have thrown only 1 touchdown pass all year. Lynch has been a solid rookie running back with 76.2 yards per game and 4 touchdowns, but he is not the kind of player who can carry a team at this point. This is really a matter of which team is worse. I like Buffalo’s guts, but their success has been at home which included a 17-14 win over these Jets. New York has been competitive every week since losing 38-14 to the Patriots who blow everyone out. The law of averages has to level out at some point and this seems like a good time: NY Jets 19, Buffalo 17
 
Houston (3-4) @ San Diego (3-3): pick SD -9/under 45
 
It remains to be seen where this game will be played, but these teams are going to get together this weekend. Also in doubt is which quarterback leads the Texans. Schaub is day to day while Rosenfels stands ready to go following a wild outing last week with 290 yards and 4 touchdown passes with 4 turnovers. Even with Ahman Green back in the fold Houston has struggled to run the ball ranking #31 for the season with 75.6 yards per game. The Chargers can take away the run and pressure the passer with a defense that has turned around an awful September with two great showings earlier this month. They rested last week on a bye, the benefit of which is probably offset in light of the tragic fire evacuations. Offensively San Diego has added a weapon at receiver in Chris Chambers. Houston has been vulnerable on defense having given up 37 and 38 the past two weeks while yielding 26 and 30 points in their other losses. Tomlinson seemed to get back into MVP form with 198 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns against the Raiders. He will probably continue in that direction this week. Sometimes tragedy can bring a team together and while it is going to be difficult for the Chargers to focus on football they are vastly more talented than the Texans: San Diego 27, Houston 13
 
Jacksonville (4-2) @ Tampa Bay (4-3): pick TB -3.5/under 33.5
 
Perhaps the Jaguars were exposed on Monday Night Football in their 29-7 loss to division rival Indianapolis. They had skated to four straight wins over mediocre opposition, but were totally overwhelmed when the Colts came knocking. Now it gets harder because a guy who was their #3 quarterback this summer will be their new starter. Quinn Gray is just 30/60 for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns with 4 turnovers in his career. He hasn’t thrown a regular season touchdown pass since 2005. Maybe it is fitting that he hails from Ft. Lauderdale in this battle of Florida, but aside from having lot of friends and family in the stands he will struggle. Jacksonville has their running game going so the question is whether or not Tampa Bay can effectively stack the line to shut down Jones-Drew (coming off a sprained knee) and Taylor. When the Buccaneers have the ball it certainly helps that their injury riddled backfield finally got a jolt with Earnest Graham’s big game last week. He touched the ball 32 times and piled up 201 total yards, nearly doubling his output for the season’s first 6 games. Garcia survived an interception happy Detroit defense and still hasn’t thrown a pick although he did fumble twice for his first turnovers of the season. He also completed 37/45 passes for 316 yards in a losing effort. Only Tom Brady has a better completion percentage than Garcia (70.4%) on the season. The offense has struggled to score though having posted 14, 13 and 16 the past three weeks. Jacksonville also has four games scoring 17 points or fewer meaning this is likely a low scoring affair. Quarterback play is so huge in the NFL. Gray is bound to turn the ball over in a hostile environment against a defense conceived by Monte Kiffin. That’s the difference in the game: Tampa Bay 16, Jacksonville 10
 
Washington (4-2) @ New England (7-0): pick WAS +17/under 48.5
 
Most fans of the NFL are looking ahead to next week when the Patriots and Colts meet. I think everyone wants it to be a battle of 7-0 teams. The Redskins have other ideas, and they have some of the elements required to pull an upset. Randy Moss doesn’t like getting hit, and Washington’s safety tandem of Landry and Taylor will be lurking. If the deep passing game fails to click will the Patriots be able to run the ball on this defense? Their backfield has been banged up and Washington allows just 3.5 yards per rush (#4 in the NFL). The real problem is moving the ball against the Patriots. Campbell leads a below average offense that has seen big play threat Santana Moss disappear over the past month. Clinton Portis has failed to rush for 100 yards in a game, and perhaps only tight end Chris Cooley (4 TD receptions) and Antwaan Randle El (422 yards receiving) have pulled their weight. Still, I think the Redskins can keep the clock moving with conservative play on offense and consistent play on defense. They can frustrate New England for at least a half, and then reality will kick in: New England 27, Washington 12
 
New Orleans (2-4) @ San Francisco (2-4): pick NO -1/under 40.5
 
It almost seems like a mistake that these teams have the same record. The Saints have only just started to show signs of being the team that went to last year’s NFC title game. The 49ers have hardly even resembled an NFL team having lost by 18+ points in three of their last four. Thanks in part to losing quarterback Alex Smith and tight end Vernon Davis they have the NFL’s worst pass offense (125.0 yards per game) so it hardly matters that New Orleans is #27 in pass defense (244.0 yards per game). Frank Gore had a season high in rushing yards last week – with 88. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 2 when he had a season high 20 carries. The offense simply hasn’t had the ball enough to really get him going. For the Saints it boils down to the play of Brees. He has tightened up his play the past two weeks with 4 touchdown passes and just 1 turnover while completing 67.1% of his passes. The 49ers are much better on defense at home, but usually wear down when the offense fails to score. They have posted 10 points in their last two home games, both losses. I like the Saints to run right at them with Bush while Dilfer continues to pile up sacks and turnovers: New Orleans 22, San Francisco 14
 
Green Bay (5-1) @ Denver (3-3): pick GB +3/over 41.5
 
It has been over a decade since these teams met in the Super Bowl, but Favre is still leading the Packers. The past two weeks his play has been a little spotty with 2 interceptions in each game. One of those led directly to a Chicago touchdown during a loss in which they blew a 20-10 second half lead, and last week he was bailed out by a defensive score in a 17-14 win over Washington. One way to avoid Favre giving away this game would be by running the ball. It is the resistible force against the movable object in this case. Green Bay is dead last in run offense (65.7 yards per game) while Denver is dead last in run defense (176.2). Only three teams have fewer yards per carry than the Packers (3.3) and just one has allowed more per rush than Denver (5.2). Do Wynn, Jackson and Morency really have the ability to get it done though? If not it will be a battle of dangerous receivers against quality corners. The question is how healthy Bly and Bailey are. Without them playing well this could get ugly for Denver because even with them teams complete 67.4% of their passes, third highest in the NFL. On offense the Broncos got a huge game out of Cutler in their upset of Pittsburgh and he needs to have another one here against a defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56.7% of their passes (#2 in NFL). Usually I would love Denver at home, but they have already lost here twice. Green Bay has won both of their road games and is coming off a bye. They also have Favre who has done a few things on Monday Night Football: Green Bay 27, Denver 23
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