Arizona (12-7) vs. Pittsburgh (14-4): pick PIT -6.5/under 47

Are these teams lucky to be here? I think so. By no means am I trying to take away from their conference title wins, but certain breaks definitely made it easier for them to reach Tampa. The Cardinals would make Muhammad Ali proud with their rope-a-dope finish to the regular season. Opponents looked the films of them getting blown out game after game and had no idea what this team was really capable of. The team was able to tank those games because the three teams opposing them in the NFC West went a grand total of 7-23 when playing teams outside of the division. That’s a .233 winning percentage. Coasting home kept them rested, and winning the division put them at home for their tilt with Atlanta, an 11-5 team to their 9-7. To their credit Arizona went to Carolina and toasted the Panthers, but did it seem like the rain was just waiting to pour down at any moment? If it had I wonder how the game might have turned out. Finally, Philadelphia did them a huge favor taking out New York. Understanding that the Cards were on a roll I’m positive they would not have enjoyed the freezing Meadowlands.

Their lucky breaks pale in comparison to the Steelers actually. The first came when San Diego knocked off Indianapolis. Peyton Manning’s Colts had already registered a win over Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in November. Avoiding that rematch provided a little relief. Another loss was a 34-13 thrashing at Tennessee, but rival Baltimore took them out meaning there would be no return visit to the Music City. I realize the players say they would have relished a shot for revenge, but the fact remains that they lost the first meeting by three touchdowns. Finally, these Cardinals also did them a favor. I know it was September, but Philadelphia handled these Steelers pretty well in a 15-6 win. Amazingly, Pittsburgh was favored to play a team that had beaten them this season 3 times in a row (they lost just 4 games remember) only to have an upset win “save” them. Personally I think these guys would dominate any team in the NFL on any field, but it’s interesting anyway.

Did I just give away my pick? We’ll see. I like the deceiving running game for the Cardinals. They don’t run for average. They run just to keep the defense occupied while they are preparing for their next pass. The key for them is staying close enough that Kurt Warner will not be forced into 50 pass attempts. In half of their regular season games he threw 39+ passes, but in the three playoff games his average is 30.7. Oh, and they were 3-5 in those high pass games meaning their record is now 9-2 when he keeps his pass total below 34. One of those losses doesn’t even count because it was at snowy New England when the team didn’t care. Even with 690 passes thrown on the season he has been sacked only 1.68 times per game. The guy can beat the blitz. Pittsburgh will bring it because that’s what they do. Their safety play will keep their defense from being burned for huge plays.

When the Steelers have the ball it’s on Roethlisberger’s shoulders. In 18 games this season he has only 15 interceptions, but 9 of those came in three losses. Naturally they would like to get ahead as well and not put him in the position of leading a comeback. If he is in that spot he might have Super Bowl XL flashbacks and start going Rich Gannon. Hey, he is facing the guy who once led his offense (Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt) right? His offense has the better running game. Willie Parker is ready to go and has already done his thing in the big game, knocking Marcus Allen out of the record books with a 75 yard touchdown to help beat Seattle. His opposite number Edgerrin James is I’m sure motivated to be playing his home state of Florida and has definitely surged in his past four games. He has carried the ball 66 times for 303 yards (4.59 average) including the season finale against Seattle when he was basically taken off the bench (11 carries the previous 8 games). He’s not going to beat this defense. In fact, based on his “I’m not a blocker” comments I would be looking for those blitzing Steelers to knock him around a little.

Super Bowls are very emotional which muddies the water. The teams are rested. They know each other a bit. Haley is a great play caller and in my opinion is Kansas City’s new head coach in a week. Tomlin makes questionable calls in clutch spots. If this game is close I would favor Arizona. They need their inevitable trick play to work as it did in the NFC title game. I believe it will backfire and result in a turnover. The Cardinals have gotten this fire by muscling through the NFC. Both teams split their 4 games against the opposite conference, but Pittsburgh faced the rugged NFC East while Arizona took on a soft AFC East. Baltimore crushing champion Miami illustrated that. My inclination here is that the better conference flexes a bit.

The wrench in my plans is a strange dream I had shortly after the title games were over. Pittsburgh was leading the game 18-16 (don’t ask me how the point totals got there) late when Arizona hit a big play to get into field goal range. Naturally that was all I got. I have no idea if Rackers joined Vinatieri or Norwood in Super Bowl lore. I find it hard to even admit I dream about football results, but I feel like if I don’t mention it and by some miracle it comes to pass no one will believe me. Instead I’m dealing with reality. The Steelers are much better. Their defense is going to somehow slow down an effective Fitzgerald and, yes, Boldin to force field goals. If you noticed the Cards converted only two field goals in their home playoff wins meaning their red zone offense killed. This will not happen in the Super Bowl against the Steelers. Get ready for 3, 6 and 9 to pop up on your sheets for Arizona. Meanwhile field position will favor Pittsburgh because their defense is more likely to create turnovers. All it really takes is one touchdown drive to turn the tide. They get it early and honestly never look back.

Just for fun I’ll break it down by quarter. I’ll take Pittsburgh 10-3 after the first and 13-9 at halftime. Everyone will believe they are in for a great second half. Through the third quarter it still looks that way with the Steelers up 20-12, but when they cash in a touchdown midway through the quarter the game is ostensibly over. Perhaps the only question remaining is if Arizona goes for two points after their “garbage” touchdown. Nah, they take the point: Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 19