Oh the humanity! Let my bickering commence again. Some tough finishes, a few surprises and chances not paying off resulted in a tough week for me. Straight up I was fine at 10-4 (90-54 overall) which was tied with last week for my fourth best of the season. Against the spread I sputtered. At 6-7-1 I had just my second losing week of the season, but still have a solid overall mark (76-60-8). On the over/under I had my first loser since week 5 at 6-8 and fifth loser overall, but remain ahead for the season (73-65-6). Now the stakes get higher because I have to predict a full slate while also gauging the pulse of teams who will be fading from the playoff picture. Some will fight to play spoiler while others might pack it in.

NY Jets (6-3) @ New England (6-3): pick NE -3/under 42.5

Some football fans prefer the college game because of intense rivalries. In today’s NFL filled with high priced players, inflated egos, monstrous television contracts and outright greed I would cite Jets-Patriots as the best example as a true rivalry. These teams are at odds and it is bitter. New York went out and signed Ty Law just to play in this game. He won titles with the Patriots and had been with the Jets in 2005 before spending the past two seasons in Kansas City. Let’s be honest. At 34 years old and coming in cold he’s not exactly going to lock down Randy Moss. However, I love the signing. They want him on their side for this battle. It’s very similar to Yankees/Red Sox with players switching teams.

Another great element is Favre being thrust into the spotlight with Brady on the sidelines as the marquee quarterback against a team many have forgotten he beat for his only Super Bowl ring to date. In a way this is him coming full circle. He needed to beat them for a championship in order to validate his status as an elite quarterback and MVP. Now he needs to beat them again or some will question his decision to return to the NFL. This game is crucial because not only did he lose the first meeting at home, if he loses this one the division title and possibly wild card will become more difficult to grasp down the line.

Expect a much better football game this time. In New England’s 19-10 win both quarterbacks were making just their second start for each team. Cassel was making his second start period. Back then the Patriots actually had a healthy stable of running backs too. Jordan, Maroney, Faulk and Morris all carried the football at least 3 times. Even with those guys they averaged 3.2 yards per carry. Ironically they have done just fine with unheralded rookie Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Last week he had 105 yards rushing and midway through the season is 64 yards away from being their leading rusher overall. Leave it to the Patriots to find a guy who was 37th in the nation rushing with a pedestrian (for college) 4.9 yard average to be productive in their system. Can he do it against a solid front seven? No analysis is really needed. This is going to be a back and forth struggle for field position all game. It comes down to will. Favre will try to win it. Cassel will try not to lose it. The Pats will use confusion on defense. The Jets will use skill and athletic youth. All I can say is I learned my lesson going against this team at home in primetime when they blew away Denver: New England 19, NY Jets 13

Denver (5-4) @ Atlanta (6-3): pick ATL -4/under 51.5

Even past the midway point of the season I find myself not giving enough respect to certain teams and the Falcons fall in that category. It is hard to imagine a team that was clearly one of the five worst in 2007 suddenly competing for a division title. Ironically the ESPN guys joked about it in a commercial taped before the season because typically the NFC South turns upside down each season so the Falcons were “expected” to be good. This rematch of Super Bowl XXXIII is a mismatch in the other direction. The Broncos used the running of Terrell Davis to stomp out a victory in Elway’s farewell game. Revenge will be served when Turner and Norwood walk all over this defense. Only the Chiefs allow a higher average rush than Denver (5.1) while only the Giants are better than Atlanta’s rushing offense (4.6). What happens when a team gains roughly five yards per carry on offense? Good things, that’s what.

At quarterback we have possibly the best player from the 2006 draft going up against the best of the 2008 draft. Ryan has already dispatched the 2007 draft’s top pick JaMarcus Russell (Oakland) in a laugher and for good measure later blew out a seventh rounder from that draft (Tyler Thigpen) when they routed Kansas City. Never mind beating possibly the best quarterback from the 2004 draft (Aaron Rodgers) at Lambeau Field, a 27-24 win over Green Bay. He’s getting pretty good at beating these young quarterbacks. Oh, and not bad at beating guys who are on pace to set the single season record for passing yards either. Last week Drew Brees and New Orleans posed no threat to them.

I think it’s time for me to shell out some respect for a player who in his rookie season can erase Michael Vick from the minds of Atlanta fans and the record book as well. He has an opportunity to lead them where Vick never did and pile up stats Vick couldn’t reach passing the ball. No one wants a running quarterback anymore. Only two players have rushed for over 150 yards on the season at the position and Garrard leads with just 194. This is going to be a game of Atlanta controlling the action with running while Cutler tries to catch them up passing. Last week he was able to get it done at Cleveland, but this is a team on a mission that is 4-0 at home. I ignored that stat by picking them to lose to New Orleans and won’t repeat the mistake: Atlanta 27, Denver 23

Houston (3-6) @ Indianapolis (5-4): pick IND -7.5/under 50.5

Lost in the euphoria of the Titans taking over the AFC South is the fact that one of the most incredible streaks in the NFL is about to end. The Colts are one loss away from failing to win 12 games for the first time since 2002. That season they were 10-6 wild card winners behind Tennessee. You might think New England has done the same, but 2005 (10-6) tripped them up. This streak of five straight seasons at 12-4 or better might be more impressive than the 49ers going at least 10-6 for 16 straight seasons because those teams chewed up three pathetic division opponents. That being said, I don’t believe the streak ends with this game although it certainly will end at some point.

The Colts gave the Texans every opportunity to beat them in their stadium earlier this season, but sparked by 3 turnovers by Rosenfels managed to turn a 27-10 deficit into a 31-27 lead in just over two minutes of game play. That’s what happens when you own a team. They tense up even when it looks like they’re going to win. The Colts aren’t exactly back to elite status following their win at Pittsburgh, but they played that way in stealing a victory on the road. They have also grown more comfortable in their new stadium after losing the first two. Victories over Baltimore (31-3) and New England (18-15) are impressive considering both currently share their division lead. Houston is now 0-4 on the road although in their defense a hurricane forced them to play the first three games of the season away from their damaged stadium and the last two were close.

I don’t trust their defense whatsoever. The only teams they have held below 28 points this season are Detroit and Cincinnati, both at home. Those teams are a combined 1-17. The Colts only really get into trouble when the offense doesn’t score. Their losses to Chicago, Jacksonville, Green Bay and Tennessee produced an average of 17.3 points. They were lucky to survive 18-15 wins over Minnesota and New England and last week the defense set them up when the offense had left them in a 20-17 hole late. When they score they win. I’ll take Manning in a shootout over Rosenfels on any day of the week, any surface and any location: Indianapolis 30, Houston 17

Oakland (2-7) @ Miami (5-4): pick MIA -10/under 39

I’m sure the Raiders remember last season’s early visit to the Dolphins quite well. They ran for 299 yards and pummeled Miami 35-17 behind Daunte Culpepper who had been dispatched by the team he really wanted to play for because he’s from Florida. He might have only passed for 75 yards and rushed for 28 yards, but he scored every touchdown either by passing (2) or rushing (3). Oakland was looking decent at 2-2 yet finished 4-12. Miami continued to go into the tank for a 1-15 season. Over a year later the roles are reversed quite a bit. The Dolphins feel like they can still win the AFC East and for good reason because they thumped New England 38-13. The Raiders have a hopeless offense and barring a miracle are out of the playoff race.

The quarterbacks will be different in the rematch, as will both head coaches and a lot of personnel. Oakland took some heat for cutting cornerback DeAngelo Hall. Then they managed to hand Carolina’s Jake Delhomme a humiliating performance at quarterback so it must have been a good move. He completed just 7/27 passes (26%) with 4 interceptions. Every 7 times he threw the ball the Raiders picked it off once yet because their own quarterback Andrew Walter was equally bad they still lost. I expect a smarter performance from Chad Pennington. He has always been an accurate passer and has just 5 interceptions on the season with no lost fumbles. If you’re looking for a reason for their turnaround consider that by contrast last season three quarterbacks combined for 16 interceptions and 8 lost fumbles for 1.5 turnovers per game, or one more than Pennington. It doesn’t sound like much, but -1 is a big deal.

Momentum is very much in Miami’s favor. They have won three in a row and were also home last week. Oakland has lost three in a row and since playing two solid road games back in September they have not been competitive in losing at New Orleans and Baltimore by a combined 63-13. Their inspiration will be low. The defense doesn’t have a crowd to inspire them and whereas the Dolphins are creative on offense the Raiders are searching for someone to call the plays. Will the Raiders score their first touchdown this month? Probably not: Miami 26, Oakland 6

Baltimore (6-3) @ NY Giants (8-1): pick NYG -6/under 42

It must be Super Bowl rematch week. When these teams met for Super Bowl XXXV the Ravens had possibly the best defense ever assembled. I saw them beat the Raiders in the AFC Championship Game live and it was like seeing a pack of wolves set loose on a piece of raw meat. Now the situation is turned around a bit. New York is the defending champions with a hungry defense and solid running game plus a quality quarterback. Baltimore is still equipped with their running game yet the defense is older and not as dominant while instead of a veteran quarterback (Trent Dilfer) they have rookie Joe Flacco.

The key point of contention will be New York’s NFL leading rush offense at 5.2 yards per carry against Baltimore’s top run defense (2.9). If the Ravens win that battle the game is on. If not the game is over. Those who read my predictions often notice I always use play averages. Baltimore might be third in rushing offense per game, but are firmly in the bottom half in terms of average (3.9). Their best chance is to wear down an opponent rather than simply run them over. Both teams have multiple options and this could turn into a run heavy game. That favors the Ravens who lack the firepower passing the football to say the least. Only veteran Derrick Mason has more than 225 yards receiving for them on the season and he leads the team with 2 touchdown receptions. By contrast the Giants have six players with 212+ yards receiving and the top four all play wide receiver so it’s not like they are dinking the opposition with screen passes.

I truly believed the retirement of Strahan and injury to Umenyiora would ruin their pass rush, but there has been enough talent left with Tuck and “Kiwi” for them to rank third in the NFL with 30 sacks. Flacco isn’t known for his mobility and Baltimore has taken 17 this season. He has shown some nice flashes on the road including three wins in a row plus a close loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Giants will force him to beat them. His numbers have been good lately but the opposition is fairly weak with Houston, Cleveland and Oakland the past three of their current four game winning streak. Manning hasn’t thrown for 200 yards since October 5, but he hasn’t needed to other than a rough outing at Cleveland. This will be an ugly game and another ugly win for a team making a living on them: NY Giants 19, Baltimore 12

Detroit (0-9) @ Carolina (7-2): pick CAR -14/over 39 

The Lions are in serious danger of finishing the season without a victory. They are terrible on the road which makes this game plus trips to Indianapolis and Green Bay, both good teams, long shots. Their home games are against playoff contending Tampa Bay, undefeated Tennessee, NFC South leading Minnesota and New Orleans. Even the Saints have an explosive offense. The 1976 Bucs are getting nervous. Then again the Panthers have at times looked vulnerable, especially last week at Oakland. Delhomme had one of the worst games in NFL history for a winning quarterback despite playing a team coming off cutting their #2 cornerback. He’s the only guy dumb enough to throw at Asomugha too.

This week Carolina is fortunate to be playing a team with nowhere close to the defensive skill of the Raiders. Only one team has failed to score 25 points against Detroit this season. Considering the Lions have only scored 25 points once all season I think you see why they are winless. Daunte Culpepper continues his improbable comeback despite looking out of shape and a shell of his former near MVP self. The fact that reportedly politics are playing a role in him starting after being signed off the street instead of former GM Matt Millen draft pick Drew Stanton signifies the disarray of their organization. Carolina at times has been dominant at home and is 5-0. If I had one of those stone cold or lead pipe lock deals you see on various television shows this might be it. No more analysis is really necessary. If the Lions are up to fighting it might stay close for a half: Carolina 34, Detroit 10

Philadelphia (5-4) @ Cincinnati (1-8): pick CIN +10/over 40.5

The Eagles have the misfortune of playing in the highly competitive NFC East. I thought they had an opportunity to get a leg up last week by beating the Giants and they fell a little bit short. The danger here is taking a team with only one win lightly on the road. The Bengals have shown some fight at various points of the season and are coming off a bye week. Their last game produced their first win, 21-19 over Jacksonville. Consider momentum on their side with the Eagles banged up from dealing with the Giants. If Philly is going to save their season it has to be on the road where they play three of their next four and four of their next six games. The final three are against teams with a combined 18-7 record. This is a must-win game for them to stay in the wild card chase.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will again start at quarterback for the Bengals and while his QB rating this season (66.6) isn’t far off from Palmer (69.0) in his four games that’s not the whole story. He has been sacked a ton (19) and accounted for 10 turnovers. Perhaps the sudden resurgence of reclamation project Cedric Benson will help his cause. Benson had only two games over 100 yards rushing in three seasons with Chicago as the #4 overall draft pick, but is now trying for two in a row after finishing with 104 yards on 24 carries against the Jags. It will be tough against this defense. The blitzing will also be hard on Fitzpatrick because of his propensity for mistakes. I absolutely believe this team will be ready to put up a fight on their home field, but the Eagles have been pretty good on the road. They are 2-2 with both losses coming by 4 points to good teams (Dallas with Romo, Chicago). McNabb has done a ridiculously good job distributing the football this season. There are 10 players with at least 12 receptions and 142 yards receiving. Westbrook is hurting, but they will work around it and find a way to win this one: Philadelphia 27, Cincinnati 20

Chicago (5-4) @ Green Bay (4-5): pick GB -3/under 44.5

This is obviously one of the most storied rivalries in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers gets his first taste of it here. He won’t have any time to bask in the moment, however, because this is a critical point in the season for his Packers. After losing a heartbreaker at Minnesota last week they can’t afford to drop another game inside the division if they hope to win the North again. The Bears on the other hand would love to steal the first meeting with their hated rivals on the road and possibly gain a nice advantage in the division if Minnesota loses at Tampa Bay as well. Midseason games can change the direction of a team. Green Bay at 4-6 will be wondering if they even make the playoffs. At 5-5 it is possible they share the division lead.

We know Rodgers is getting his first start against the Bears, but we aren’t sure Orton will be on the other side. He is quickly turning into another Jay Fiedler who led the Miami Dolphins to a lot of great seasons despite mediocre numbers. All he did was win games and Orton has done the same. If he does start certainly his bum ankle will limit his mobility and the Packers will come after him. Neither team can really run the football, but the Bears have a far superior run defense. Neither team can really pressure the passer either, but both are in the top 5 for team interceptions. If Grossman is the quarterback it becomes a bigger factor in favor of the Packers. Chicago’s defense has been stumbling having allowed 20+ points in all but one game since stunning Indianapolis 29-13 in the season opener. Green Bay has been trending in a positive direction. They gave up 17, 14 and 19 preceding last week’s 28-27 loss. Discounting touchdowns scored on returns last week they haven’t allowed 20 points since October 5.

Clearly Rodgers has yet to master home dominance having just a 2-2 record at Lambeau, but I expect that to turn around. The Bears are similarly 2-2 on the road, but haven’t played away from Soldier Field since October 12. Seven of their games have been closely contested and decided by a touchdown or less. They are 4-3. The Packers are now 1-3 in such situations having won only the season opener so if it gets close in the end they are in trouble. It won’t. Their last home game was October 19 and as the saying goes it’s home sweet home: Green Bay 26, Chicago 17

New Orleans (4-5) @ Kansas City (1-8): pick KC +6/over 47.5

I keep waiting for the Saints to wake up and overwhelm an opponent with offense. This might be their best chance and then again it might not. The Chiefs are a feisty bunch as they proved last week at San Diego despite losing 20-19 when their two point conversion failed at the end. Their defense might not be up for this one though, even if they are coming off their best effort of the season. The three previous times they held a team below 28 points were against New England (when Brady left in the opener) Oakland (23 without a passing game) and Denver all which occurred in September. As the season wears on teams start to give in a bit on the defensive side of the ball when things don’t go their way. It is hard to imagine the Saints not attacking this secondary at will. Even if their scoring production has been spotty they have still managed to post four games with 31+ points and have only been held below 20 once.

Reggie Bush hopes to be back for this game and while his presence adds an explosive element to the offense they have no one on the roster capable of beating up this vulnerable run defense. McAllister is a shadow of his former self, Stecker is now hurt and Thomas hasn’t rushed for 30 yards in a game since the season opener. It’s no wonder Brees is doing his best to break Marino’s single season record of 5,083 yards passing. He had a season high 422 yards trying to dig them out of a hole against Atlanta last week. It was his seventh game with at least 320 yards this season. Then there’s the crazy story of Tyler Thigpen, a seventh round pick in 2007 out of Coastal Carolina. Even though he has yet to lead them to a victory in seven appearances the last three losses have come by a total of 8 points. In their road loss to the Jets he passed for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last week at San Diego he had 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. Since throwing 3 picks at Atlanta in week 3 he has no turnovers and has taken a reasonable 13 sacks in 192 pass attempts.

I think this is lining up in favor of the Chiefs who also get their best rusher Larry Johnson back in the fold. It comes at a good time because they couldn’t run at all against the Chargers behind a pair of rookies. The Saints are also weakened defensively by the loss of #1 cornerback Mike McKenzie. Dwayne Bowe has been a solid performer in a lost season for the Chiefs with at least 4 receptions in eight of nine games and five outings with 72+ yards. He will be big in this one and the Saints have no answer for Tony Gonzalez either. It seems odd to say this, but other than Brees throwing for 450 yards I don’t think the visitors stand a chance. I expect the Chiefs to control the game running the ball and when necessary convert their third downs to pretty much dominate. I’m always good for a surprise pick or two and this qualifies. Maybe the odds makers don’t realize the Saints are 0-4 on the road and Arrowhead Stadium is still a tough place to play: Kansas City 31, New Orleans 24

Minnesota (5-4) @ Tampa Bay (6-3): pick MIN +4.5/under 41.5

I’m curious to see how this one plays out because I have a feeling the visitors are in good shape. The Bucs are again overachieving this season and why Gruden doesn’t get more attention as one of the elite coaches in the NFL is beyond me. His quarterbacks are a combined 72 years old. One of his running backs is nearing 34 which is a few years past when players at the position are supposed to be done. The other wasn’t drafted. His leading receiver is a guy no one wanted (Antonio Bryant) followed by a player who despite being a former #7 overall selection has never gone over 1,000 yards in a season. How in the world is this is the #8 offense in the NFL if Gruden isn’t a genius? Please tell me, I’m dying to know.

However, there is cause for concern because the aforementioned running back tandem that has combined for 983 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns might be in street clothes. Dunn is out and Graham might be too even coming off a bye week. Garcia has done a good job since taking over at quarterback with a 3-2 record. The losses were by 3 and 4 points on the road. He also has two games over 300 yards out of his past three starts and just 2 turnovers in five games since Griese went out. I’m still trying to figure out how he can survive throwing 36, 43 and 43 passes the last three weeks with just 1 interception. No tipped or deflected balls or lapses of judgment? He is without question their key because unless Cadillac Williams is ready to light the world on fire in his return against one of the best run defenses in the NFL this game is on Garcia passing the football.

The Vikings come in brimming with confidence after escaping with a win over Green Bay. With two wins after the bye week they are tied for the division lead and ready to tip towards a playoff berth. Then again it’s hard to know what to expect from this defense. In a five game stretch they allowed 10, 30, 27, 10 and 48 points. The past two games they have allowed 21 and 27, but when allowing 21+ they are still 3-3. The Bucs are also good in that situation at 3-1. Their defense gave up a season high 27 last week and the offense bailed them out. I’m concerned about their ability to win without running the ball. Adrian Peterson is a weapon on the other side. Frerotte might be forced into some mistakes by Kiffin’s defense, but I’m feeling a big game from “All Day”. I know the Bucs are 4-0 at home so this is another risky upset pick: Minnesota 19, Tampa Bay 14

St. Louis (2-7) @ San Francisco (2-7): pick SF -6/over 43

I thought the 49ers made a lot of progress last week in Arizona, but the aftermath painted a different picture. Singletary is blaming Martz for the play calling and both are bickering about the officials failing to educate them on the situation in the waning moments. Guess what guys. If Hill just spikes the ball as he should have it’s not an issue. It was third down with 4 seconds remaining. Even a gut wrenching loss was a lot better than what the Rams endured. After looking pretty good in a three game stretch coming off their bye they have now lost 34-13 and 47-3. This was once a great rivalry even if the 49ers mostly got the better of it. Now it’s a battle to escape the NFC West cellar.

The Rams might get Steven Jackson back, but does it really matter? He has 784 total yards on the season. Almost 500 of that came in lopsided losses to Seattle and Buffalo plus their shocking blowout of Dallas. I’m not sure he can jump back into the saddle and carry them even against a struggling opponent. Meanwhile Bulger is looking like a quarterback who can’t get it done with Martz’s offense or veteran receiver Isaac Bruce. He has only one game with over 190 yards passing on the season and his lone multiple touchdown game was a 34-13 loss. When a backup who is 38 years old and concussion prone gets discussed as a viable replacement for you it is time to look in the mirror. Perhaps the big contract is putting too much pressure on him, but one on the team including Holt has 400 yards receiving. Holt is almost guaranteed his worst season since he was a rookie (788 yards) because his low after that is 1,188. When the season is over he will reflect on the pain of breaking a string of 8 seasons in a row over 1,000 yards.

San Francisco is in far better shape to win this game. Their new quarterback Hill is fired up. He wants to win and cares about winning. Their running back Gore might not be the next Faulk yet, but still has over 1,000 total yards already with an outside shot at 2,000 on the season if he has a big game or two. I realize they are 1-4 at home this season, but they are still capable of coming up big in front of the Candlestick Park fans. It happened earlier this season against another bad team (Detroit) and will happen again here: San Francisco 30, St. Louis 16

Arizona (6-3) @ Seattle (2-7): pick AZ -2.5/over 47.5

Even if the division leading Cardinals escaped Monday Night Football by the slimmest of margins over San Francisco, who came in 2-6, it was still a breakthrough victory. In two decades since moving to the Grand Canyon state they had never won on MNF. It was a lot of history to overcome and a team known for, as former head coach Dennis Green might say letting opponents off the hook, needed it to retain control of the division. Now they face an even bigger obstacle. You can take the 2-7 record for the Seahawks and throw it out the window. This team has Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback again plus a rabid home crowd. They will be fired up for this game. The Cardinals are just 2-3 on the road this season although only one of those, a 56-35 debacle at the Jets, was decided by more than a touchdown. Some of Seattle’s woes this season are the result of grueling long flights to Buffalo, New York (Giants), Tampa Bay and Miami. All of those games resulted in a loss.

Another factor for the Seahawks has been a bevy of injuries to their wide receivers. The good news is that rookie tight end John Carlson is having a solid debut with 27 receptions for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns. The bad news is that he leads the team in all of those categories. The reunion with Koren Robinson has produced little more than a warm body in the lineup because other than his 90 yard touchdown in a 26-7 loss to Philadelphia he has just a few catches per game for 23-38 yards in his other four appearances. Now Deion Branch is back. Remember him? They traded a first round pick to get him from New England and got pretty much what he had been with the Patriots - injury prone and not very productive. Thus far he has appeared in only 26 of 41 team games. It’s hard to imagine the healthy duo not sparking a passing offense second to last in the NFL with 144.7 yards per game.

Seattle is held together by running the football though. They are actually ninth in the NFL with 4.4 yards per carry. However, their guys aren’t going to take over a game. Julius Jones had his first game over 61 yards since September 21 last week at Miami (88 yards) and because the team keeps falling behind hasn’t rushed more than 17 times since then either. Most of what Maurice Morris has produced comes from a couple big runs of 45 and 28 yards out of his season total (173). I think Arizona can answer them in that regard. The pass defense has been suspect with an NFL in touchdowns allowed (18) but even with Hasselbeck and Branch they should be able to contain that as well. It’s really up to Seattle’s defense to keep them in the game. They can contain the run because even switching to rookie Tim Hightower hasn’t done much for the Cardinal rushing attack. However, it goes without saying MVP candidate Kurt Warner and his trio of receivers with 46+ receptions and 606+ yards will get it done. Fitzgerald leads in yards (788) Boldin in touchdowns (10) and Breaston catches passes when opponents pay attention to the other two. Eventually they will wrestle the division title, symbolically, from the Seahawks in this close battle although I wouldn’t be shocked to see the score go the other way: Arizona 28, Seattle 24

Tennessee (9-0) @ Jacksonville (4-5): pick TEN -1/under 40

The Titans are the darling of the NFL. I won’t pretend to know I saw it coming. In fact I saw the opposite, but of course I couldn’t foresee Kerry Collins taking over at quarterback and playing his best football in years. He was called a “journeyman” on a network which shall remain nameless. What? Yeah, he has been on five different teams but this guy was the #5 overall pick for Carolina. He was counted on to build their franchise and took them within a game of the Super Bowl. He later lost a Super Bowl with the Giants and passed for over 7,200 yards and 41 touchdowns in two seasons with the Raiders. It’s not like he’s been bouncing around as a backup all this time. Someone finally noticed he is #14 all-time in passing yards having just surpassed Jim Kelly. If he stays with the team and finishes next season healthy he will knock Joe Montana out of the top 10.

The Jaguars have been unpredictable in a bad way. They were hoping to be the team to unseat the Colts in the AFC South. Instead the offensive line, especially on the interior, has been riddled with injuries. Their dominant running game has been relegated to the middle of the pack. The defense hasn’t been able to take over either. Last week’s 38-14 rout over winless Detroit was the first time a team failed to score 17 points on them this season. In 2007 they were 7-1 when teams failed to reach 17. The exception was their season opener against these Titans, a 13-10 loss at home. They also opened this season losing to the Titans by a similar score (17-10) on the road when Vince Young was the starter. At the time it was stunning to see rookie Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined effort (30 carries, 133 yards) outperform veteran Fred Taylor and second year stud Maurice Jones-Drew (14 carries, 31 yards) so dramatically. Now it seems like a repeat is to be expected.

In the passing game a lot of pressure falls on David Garrard. If there is a syndrome for quarterbacks who struggle after getting a big contract it will be either named after him or Marc Bulger. His yardage numbers have been solid, but only 8 touchdown passes? Half of those came against struggling Cleveland (a loss) and Detroit. This is what happens when you give a lot of money to a good player who is mostly a game manager. When he needs to win games he can’t do it. Now he faces a defense that has allowed just 5 touchdowns against 14 interceptions on the season. When they take away the run, as they likely will, can he beat them through the air? This team has gotten a combined 9 receptions for 104 yards out of Porter and Williamson who were brought in to help in the passing game. Instead Garrard has been spreading it around to the likes of Dennis Northcutt, Reggie Williams and Mike Walker with Matt Jones the only consistent threat. If this game was at night I would be more prone to predict an upset. These guys were swept by the Ohio teams and only have one significant win (Indianapolis) all season. It’s not enough to warrant me hoping they suddenly show up big. They might, but I’ll take the team that has allowed over 17 points just once: Tennessee 16, Jacksonville 13

San Diego (4-5) @ Pittsburgh (6-3): pick SD +5.5/under 44

The Chargers really miss Shawne Merriman. He might represent basically 2% of their roster on a weekly basis and roughly 9% of their defense, but his impact is enormous. Whereas the Giants have made their way despite losing two pass rushers from their Super Bowl team this unit has not. Opponents have completed an ugly 67.8% of their passes, third highest in the NFL, against this secondary with 17 touchdowns. Only the Cardinals have allowed more which brings us to the quarterback situation for the Steelers. Roethlisberger is probably healthy enough to play, but for the second time in three weeks pretty much lost the game with interceptions. He had 4 against the Giants in a 21-14 loss and threw his second of three while leading Indianapolis 20-17 late last week. It led directly to the winning touchdown. I give an assist on that one to the play call. When your defense has allowed only two drives over 33 yards in the game, and one of them came on a fluke long pass reception, why are you passing the football? This is not your older brother’s Steelers apparently.

Even with these setbacks Pittsburgh is still leading the AFC North by virtue of their win over Baltimore. Having the #1 total defense which is equally tough against the run (#2) as the pass (#1) washes away an offense ranked #26 because of erratic quarterback play and a running game hampered by injuries. Willie Parker might be able to go this week and I actually like what Mewelde Moore has brought to the offense. He has 94+ total yards in four of his last five games, but doesn’t bring a smash mouth aspect. They need someone to pound at the opposition and it was supposed to be rookie Rashard Mendenhall who is out for the season. The Chargers have much bigger problems yet are still very much in contention for the AFC West title. If not for a certain poor call in week 2 against Denver they would have a virtual two game lead. Instead they are trying to find out if they are the team that crushed New England 30-10 or the one who came one two-point conversion away from losing to now 1-8 Kansas City last week on their home field. On the road things are even worse including the aforementioned “loss” at Denver and London showdown with New Orleans they are 1-4.

I still believe the Chargers can turn around this season, but when? Pittsburgh has lost their past two home games, but is still formidable at Heinz Field. It feels like San Diego is going through the motions at times. Perhaps they have lost their hunger because the past two seasons this has been without question one of the best few teams in the NFL. Tomlinson isn’t a touchdown machine and without discussing conspiracy theories for the cause let’s look at the numbers. He has only three games over 80 yards rushing. Three times he has been held under 90 total yards. He has scored in just three games this season. Rivers has been tremendous on the stat sheet with multiple touchdowns 7 times already plus four trips past 300 yards passing. However, the best teams rarely win by posting huge passing totals. This defense is bound to force him into some mistakes and he has only three games without a turnover this season. As for history Pittsburgh is 12-0 against the Chargers in regular season games at home. Never mind the 0-2 playoff record at old Three Rivers Stadium. Also disregard the fact that San Diego beat Pittsburgh in 2005 and 2006 at home. It’s another tough football game, but only one defense is up for it: Pittsburgh 19, San Diego 17

Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (6-3): pick DAL +0/under 46

The sigh of relief you are hearing is every Cowboy fan across the nation because Tony Romo is back in the lineup at quarterback. Never mind that he was also at the helm in the first meeting with the Redskins. Washington still won 26-24 on the road against a 3-0 team thought to be invincible at the time. Romo’s 300 yards passing and 3 touchdowns weren’t enough to overcome a big day rushing for Portis (121 yards) and receiving for Moss (145 yards). Both teams have had plenty of time to gear up coming off a bye week. No doubt they also took a hard look at the Giants and realized the fight now is likely for the two wild card spots. There are already two other teams (Carolina, Atlanta) at 6-3 not leading their division plus either Minnesota or Green Bay at 5-4 and of course Philadelphia at 5-4. Two more dangerous teams (New Orleans, Green Bay) are 4-5 making it an eight team struggle for two spots.

Home field advantage isn’t that big in this one. The Redskins are only 3-2 at home and have really looked bad in the past three. They lost to then winless St. Louis, escaped over Cleveland 23-6, and were thumped by Pittsburgh. Dallas is a decent 2-3 on the road and both wins were directed by Romo. He was injured in the midst of their first road loss at Arizona and didn’t appear in wipeouts at St. Louis and New York (Giants). It will be interesting to see how Romo’s return plays out with two notable newcomers added to the mix. Roy Williams has been relatively invisible in three games other than a game winning touchdown against Tampa Bay. One stat I saw showed he has been targeted only 7 times. He might be squared up with DeAngelo Hall, who was just cut by Oakland, if Shawn Springs can’t go. The Redskins have been great defending the pass spurred by stud rookie Chris Horton. I said during the draft it wouldn’t be wise for them to spend a high pick on a safety because of the emotion surrounding the death of Sean Taylor. It would have put too much pressure on his replacement. Instead Horton was the perfect fit. He has overachieved as a seventh round pick and is in the running for defensive rookie of the year.

This is a rivalry game and the stats are not as critical, especially considering how different Dallas is without Romo at quarterback. I love it when people say stupid things like “well he doesn’t play defense and they gave up 35 points to the Giants last week!” It’s true, he doesn’t. However, when the offense struggles suddenly the defense is put back on the field quickly and usually in poor field position. I would expect a slow start out of him, but before the injury he had thrown 3 touchdown passes and/or surpassed 300 yards in four out of six games even without Roy Williams. Then there is Jason Campbell who is coming off two games where he turned the ball over 3 times total after having none in the team’s first seven outings. Clinton Portis might not be able to play and can Campbell really match passes with Romo? Taking away a running back who until getting hurt against Pittsburgh had carried the ball 21+ times in every game is huge. His string of 120+ yard rushing games ended at five in that loss as well. It’s fun to dream that Shaun Alexander might save the day, but let’s keep it real. Like a few games this week it should be tight. Dallas is due and Washington is maybe a bit overrated. They have yet to win by more than 8 points this season. The defense will show up, but I don’t trust the offense. Plus, it’s national television and the Cowboys thrive in that environment: Dallas 21, Washington 17

Cleveland (3-6) @ Buffalo (5-4): pick BUF -4/over 41.5

I’ll be sure to free up a few hours on Monday even to watch this one. Fans might be wishing there was some sort of flex schedule in place for ESPN like there is for NBC by the end of the “action”. On the positive side the Browns and Bills are both led by two young quarterbacks out of the 2007 draft. Cleveland has finally gone to Brady Quinn who had to sweat for hours before the team traded up to select him #22 overall. Buffalo followed the same path to drafting J.P. Losman in 2004, trading up to #22. During the 2007 draft they went after his replacement and found him in Trent Edwards at the end of the third round. No one really wanted Edwards because he played on a terrible Stanford team behind an equally terrible offensive line. However, before Bill Walsh passed away he expressed confidence in him. Thus far he has been proven mostly right.

Back to Quinn though, and his debut on NFL Network’s first Thursday night game of the season. As I pointed out in my preview of their meeting with Denver it was a perfect situation. They were at home against a defense unable to defend the pass or run. Therefore no one should be surprised he went a decent 23/35 for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns without any sacks or turnovers. Now he has to do it on the road, in front of a truly national television audience, against a team that can defend the pass and the run. Good luck kid, and keep your head up afterwards. The Bills have allowed only 7 touchdown passes all season. Only the undefeated Titans and Colts have allowed fewer. Their run defense is #8 in yards per carry allowed (3.7). I don’t think they’re up for this one. Last week was their chance and they blew it. The Browns are a decent 2-2 on the road and are a little more rested. The Bills are 3-1 at home and dominated the game they lost to the Jets, losing on bonehead turnovers. This should be a snoozer, but typically primetime games are entertaining so the visitors stay closer than they should: Buffalo 27, Cleveland 19