I have said this since I started posting picks, and felt it long before that. The four toughest weeks to make picks are weeks 1, 2, 16 and 17. It really showed last week when various teams came out motivated to pull upsets while others fell flat at home. The result was an embarrassing 7-9 straight up mark (152-87-1 overall). The spread was even worse at 6-10 (121-109-10 overall) and the over/under a disastrous 5-11 (122-112-6 overall). It was one of those weeks where you have to just shrug it off. Three of my picked winners (Philadelphia, Denver and Minnesota) had the ball in real time trailing by 7 points with less than 2 minutes to play in their games. None of them came through. When Carolina failed to hold on at New York it put an exclamation point on my frustration.

Chicago (9-6) @ Houston (7-8): pick HOU +1/over 46.5

 

It is hard to decide which of these teams played worse last week. The Bears were horrific on MNF. Playing at home against the hated Packers, a 5-9 team playing for pride, they were punished start to finish. By some miracle they won the game. The Texans had been gaining momentum after upsetting now #1 seed Tennessee and still had a chance to finish with a winning record for the first time in team history. They responded by getting dumped at Oakland. In the process their defense made the Raider offense look prolific by comparison to their earlier performances. Houston returns home in the spoiler role. Chicago is traveling on a short week trying to stay alive in the NFC North and possibly wild card race. Their most realistic scenario is to win this game while simultaneously the Vikings lose at home to the Giants, who have nothing to play for, which hands them a division title.

 

The rub on this game is Chicago’s running game and defense sparking their team while Houston’s passing game has to carry them. I expect a great game from start to finish and here’s why. The Texans face a pass defense allowing the fifth most yards per game (235.4) but one that has picked off the second most passes (22). Houston leads the NFL with 20 interceptions thrown. Their key is protecting the football. It has been the reason this #3 ranked total offense in yardage is #20 in scoring. Now healthy again Schaub has only one turnover, including fumbles, in each of Houston’s last three games. The Texans are 4-2 when he does not turn the ball over multiple times.

 

The Bears will counter with a running game that will be much more effective than it was on MNF. The Texans have a bottom 8 run defense in yards per carry allowed (4.5) yards per game (126.2) and touchdowns (17). Rookie Matt Forte has only three games with 100+ yards this season and two of them came against the hapless Rams and Lions. The other was on NFL opening night against the Colts who at that point couldn’t stop the run. However, he has been a steadying presence with a dozen games with 19+ carries. I like him to really hammer this Houston defense. It’s a good thing because Orton will not have better passing numbers than Schaub. Orton needs to protect the ball, but even his 9 turnovers have not kept this team from winning three of four. Andre Johnson will recover this week now that Asomugha isn’t inside his jersey. 

 

Clearly this game deserves the fourth paragraph as one of the more important ones of the weekend. It is easy to sway on the emotions of the MNF victory. However, Chicago is only 3-4 on the road this season. They have not beaten a good team on the road since the aforementioned September 7 shocker at Indy. Where were you on September 7? This team was hammered 37-3 at Green Bay and 34-14 at Minnesota in November. The Texans just beat the Titans on this field. Only Indianapolis and Baltimore, one in the playoffs and the other probable, have beaten them here. It might matter, and it might not but the Texans pull out a thriller: Houston 27, Chicago 24

 

Tennessee (13-2) @ Indianapolis (11-4): pick TEN +2.5/over 38

 

There is really no way to logically break down this game. Neither team has a compelling reason to win this game. The Colts like to rest their regulars in meaningless games. Sometimes it has, according to some analysts, hurt them in the playoffs. The Titans are locked into the #1 seed and the Colts will be the #5 regardless of how this or any of the 16 games turn out. Those numbers are important. Unless the team claiming the second wild card this weekend is able to win a road game at the AFC East champion, an Indianapolis win at the AFC West champion would produce an instant rematch in Nashville two weeks from now. While both teams have a familiarity with each other because of their division rivalry, neither wants to run a single play to tip off their opponent because of the distinct possibility a third meeting looms.

 

Anyone want to make a guess? Which team has the better backups? I usually say in a situation like this the teams will prefer to run their way into the locker room. By that I mean keep it on the ground, keep that clock running and stay healthy. The team more equipped to get that done is the Titans. They can also shuffle out Vince Young at quarterback, who is more motivated than the king of week 17 Jim Sorgi. He has played in their finale three of the past four seasons, but only won once. It includes a split at home and last year’s 16-10 loss to these Titans at the now dust pile RCA Dome. This is a guess, I’m being honest. Tennessee has a healthier roster and is more likely to put talent on the field because they will follow this with a bye week. Indianapolis is banged up and has shown in the past they have no problem being blown away in meaningless finales: Tennessee 24, Indianapolis 17

 

NY Giants (12-3) @ Minnesota (9-6): pick NYG +7/under 42.5

 

This is not a meaningless game for the Giants even if they have wrapped up the #1 NFC seed. Last November New York was 7-3 when the Vikings came into the Meadowlands. Eli Manning threw 4 touchdown passes, but three of them counted for Minnesota in their 41-17 win. The game was already out of hand at 27-10 before two of those returns early in the fourth quarter. Perhaps more damning was the fact that then-rookie sensation Adrian Peterson did not even play. Tarvaris Jackson was a crisp 10/12 for 129 yards and a touchdown without an interception. He was sacked 4 times, but lost just 5 yards total. Last year New York played hard in a “meaningless” finale. They still lost to the Patriots who finished the first 16-0 season, but it was widely considered a momentum builder towards their eventual Super Bowl run capped off by upsetting those same Patriots.

 

The Vikings have a lot on the line. A victory gives them the NFC North title. A loss means they will need help from Houston beating Chicago or they are out of the playoffs. Either positive outcome locks them into the #3 seed which means any possible rematch with the Giants would have to be in the NFC Championship Game and of course be played at the Meadowlands. The added rub to this game is that New York has an opportunity to, assuming Chicago wins in another early game, eliminate Minnesota and not have to worry about facing Adrian Peterson down the line. They are the champs, but anyone who watched Carolina run on them will know they have to see this as a golden opportunity to keep a dangerous team out of their future.

 

Tarvaris Jackson should not be the starting quarterback for the Vikings in this crucial game. His weak start helped put this team in a hole at 0-2. Last week’s two lost fumbles in a 24-17 setback to Atlanta kept them from clinching the division title. I know he was sharp at Arizona, but does Childress know the Cardinals are playing like a high school team of late? If Gus Frerotte comes off the bench early he might save this team. Adrian Peterson will get his yards against a defense trying to avoid injuries. On offense New York will probably cart out Ahmad Bradshaw as their lead rusher. Last week even without Pat Williams the Vikings limited Michael Turner to 70 yards and Atlanta to 3.1 yards per rush. It is up to their defense again, and the offense has to protect the football. “All Day” had fumbling issues along with Jackson. The Giants are a great road team and have shown they will not lie down for anyone. I am taking a chance guessing Frerotte does come off the bench and leads a rally to win the division title even as the true clinching goes on when the Bears lose in Texas: Minnesota 22, NY Giants 19

 

St. Louis (2-13) @ Atlanta (10-5): pick ATL -14/under 45

 

I have no problem admitting I did not believe the Falcons would be able to finish off their great comeback season by making the playoffs. As unlikely as it might be, they are still in the running for a bye week and the #2 seed. More likely Atlanta claims the top wild card and a trip to Arizona next week. Who had Falcons/Cardinals in a playoff game back in August? Anyone who did is rich if they bet on it. Where St. Louis is concerned they just can’t do anything. The Rams had the hated 49ers on the ropes leading 16-3 in their stadium. San Francisco rallied for a one point victory. Now this team is in line to again hold the #2 draft spot.

 

Motivation against hopelessness is what this game is about. The Falcons are 6-1 at home while the Rams are 1-6 on the road. It’s not how, it’s by how much. St. Louis has been trashed by an average of 29 points in their last three road games. Weather had nothing to do with it if you’re wondering. Atlanta has won by at least two touchdowns four times already. They will run right at the Rams until they tap out. I expect that to be sometime in the middle of the first quarter. St. Louis general manager Jim Zygmunt resigned and interim head coach Jim Haslett probably follows him out the door. Massive changes are ahead and the only consolation for their fans watching this destruction is that at this point last season the Falcons were in similar disarray: Atlanta 38, St. Louis 10

 

Carolina (11-4) @ New Orleans (8-7): pick CAR +0/over 50

 

The storyline all season has been that teams in the NFC South do not lose at home. The Panthers wrapped up a perfect 8-0 home campaign two weeks ago, and the other team members of the division are 6-1 with home games this week. Obviously the Saints are one of them and although their playoff flame is extinguished they still have a few things on the line. The first is a coveted single season record for Drew Brees. He needs 402 yards to break Dan Marino’s record of 5,083 that has stood since the now Hall of Fame quarterback was playing his second season with Miami in 1984. In the first meeting at Carolina he was 21/39 for 231 yards marking the only game all year he failed to throw a single touchdown pass. It was also one of just four games he failed to crack 250 yards. The Saints were 1-3 in those games.

 

If Sean Payton is so inclined he will gear this game plan towards breaking the hallowed mark. Brees has thrown 43+ passes five times already this season and the team is 0-5 in those games even with 421 and 422 spots he put up in two of them. If he throws for 405 yards and they lose to finish 8-8 does the record ring hollow? Marino’s Dolphins went to the Super Bowl that season and lost to one of the greatest teams in NFL history, Joe Montana’s San Francisco 49ers. There are other things at stake. Carolina needs to win if they want to hold onto the #2 seed. This team is deflated after leading on points on points in their boxing match at the Giants only to get knocked down in a late round and knocked out in overtime. I can see them having a bit of a hangover effect in another road game when the stakes are less than desperate. Yes, they would love to be the #2 seed and South champion. Is it going to kill them if they lose this game and as the #5 seed are forced to play at Arizona next week? Certainly not and that’s a big factor.

 

Another key element is the running of Pierre Thomas. He is looking like the successor to Deuce McAllister and complement to Reggie Bush in 2009. Over the past three games he has averaged 17 rushes for 88 yards. He also caught 11 passes for 92 yards and scored 5 touchdowns over that span. In last year’s meaningless finale for the Saints he had what you could call a pretty good game at Chicago with 32 touches for 226 yards and a touchdown despite the Bears walking away with a 33-25 victory. This is their future and if he is used to help balance this offense I can see an upset brewing. However, with Brees going for the record a few of his 40-50 some odd passes are bound to find their way into the arms of Panther defenders. Delhomme’s offense will keep it on the ground and take the conservative route to victory: Carolina 30, New Orleans 26

 

New England (10-5) @ Buffalo (7-8): pick BUF +7/over 41

 

It is somewhat of a joke the Patriots are forced to play this game early and therefore will not have the benefit of their hated rival, the Jets, playing hard later on in the event they beat the Bills. A win from New England puts New York out of it, but they get a break because losing would be embarrassing because the team cut Chad Pennington after acquiring Brett Favre. Before those scenarios play out this team needs to focus on the Bills. If Denver had done that they would already be champions of the AFC West. Consider that another advantage because Belichick will certainly highlight Buffalo’s upset win as reason to focus on the task at hand. The Bills are a different team with a healthy Trent Edwards at quarterback. Missing two and a half games could not have come at a worse time. He had already engineered a comeback win over Oakland, and probably would have been able to do the same against the other Bay Area team if he had not been knocked out. Two weeks later his replacement J.P. Losman fumbled away a sure win over the Jets. Switch those two results and this team is 9-6 with possibly a few wild card scenarios in their favor.

 

As it is, Buffalo is trying to avoid finishing 0-6 in division play. In the first meeting New England really illustrated what it means to be a dominant running team. They used Benjarvus Green-Ellis at running back and he carried the rock 26 times for 105 yards and a touchdown during their 20-10 win. Their running back situation now is better than it has been in weeks. In a wipeout of Arizona last week Morris and Jordan combined for 35 carries in the snow for 166 yards and two touchdowns. Four true running backs have 275+ rushing yards on the season for New England and none of them are named Laurence Maroney. I can’t say it enough. This is an impressive attack. Then again, it is easier to run when your quarterback has passed for 3,615 yards with Wes Welker and Randy Moss at his disposal. There is no replacing Tom Brady, but while this offense has not been up to their elite 2007 level they have been more balanced.

 

The key is defense for the Bills. They allow a healthy 4.4 yards per rush. The Patriots will deliver body blows via the running game and knockout blows over the top in the passing game. This is an easy recipe for their success in such an important game. New England’s defense is not up to their standards this season and last week’s domination of Arizona is meaningless because the Cardinals never got off the plane. In their previous five games the Patriots allowed 34, 28, 33, 21 and 26 points. The last two of those were on the road in Seattle and Oakland who have not exactly lit up the scoreboard this season. Their vulnerability in this one is on defense. Buffalo wants to keep Marshawn Lynch running and shorten the game. New England has no problem with a short game, but they want to build a 14-0 lead first. It’s tough to do that on the road. Other than getting blown out 30-10 at San Diego the Patriots have been great on the road. Their only other loss was 18-15 at playoff bound Indianapolis. The Bills will fight, but they are not as talented and can’t win this game: New England 26, Buffalo 20

 

Kansas City (2-13) @ Cincinnati (3-11-1): pick KC +3/over 37.5

 

I will borrow a joke from a friend and assume the announcing team covering this game is the worst available. However, draft order is on the line. More importantly both head coaches are fighting for their jobs. I think Herm Edwards is fired even if the Chiefs win 52-0. I think Marvin Lewis has a shot to return if the team finishes with their third win in a row and closes out the home season 3-4-1 despite basically playing the season without his franchise quarterback. Granted, Edwards is down to his third string quarterback, but none of his guys were as capable as Carson Palmer. Comparing the seasons it becomes clearer. The Bengals lost early season road games to the Ravens (17-10) and Giants (26-23 OT). How are those teams looking right about now? Palmer played in both games, and obviously with him in the lineup this is a wild card contender. Seven times they lost by double digits, but six of those came after the team started the season 0-5 and lost Palmer. The Chiefs can hang their hat on losing close at the Patriots (17-10) but Tom Brady went out during the game. They went on to lose close road games to the Jets (28-24) and Chargers (28-24) who have playoff aspirations, but have yet to beat a team outside the AFC West. Kansas City does have fewer double digit losses (6). In fact, they lost by a single point to possible division champion San Diego twice.

 

When fans look at a team and scream, “They suck!” often times it is overlooked how close they are to not sucking. The Chiefs have lost four games by a total of 9 points in the past eight weeks against teams who are in the playoff hunt. Turning around those results this team would be 6-9 and ready to finish second in the AFC West. The difference is making the key plays. Good teams do, bad teams don’t. Finales like this are about desire. They are also about former first round picks at running back on both sides. Who in their right mind would have guessed the rushing yards for Cedric Benson (636) would be in the same stratosphere as what Larry Johnson (856) has done? I can see comparing their rap sheets, but no one could have foreseen the resurgence of Benson and demise of LJ. Let’s not get carried away though. Benson still has a low average (3.4) and Johnson (4.7) is not finished yet. However, he needs to get the ball in order to succeed and his number has been called only 40 times (plus just 3 receptions) this month. By comparison Benson ran the ball 38 times for 171 yards last week. He rang up 161 total yards the previous week.

 

Momentum is really on the side of the Bengals who are at home trying to salvage a nice finish to their lost season. The Chiefs, for all their failings, have not lost on the road by more than 7 points since getting shut out on October 5 at Carolina. This is going to be a close game. Tyler Thigpen has at least earned the right to compete for the starting quarterback position in 2009. He just dropped 320 yards passing on the Dolphins who might be the AFC East champs. He has rushed for an NFL leading (among quarterbacks) 382 yards. He is going to play hard and I think carry the Chiefs to a win: Kansas City 24, Cincinnati 17

 

Cleveland (4-11) @ Pittsburgh (11-4): pick PIT -10/under 33

 

I don’t really know how to look at this game. It is a bitter rivalry even if these are not the real Browns. The Steelers have locked down the #2 seed in the playoffs. They will be sitting at home next week watching the first round play out waiting to find out their opponent in the divisional round. However, if Mike Tomlin’s “bah humbug” attitude at the press conference is any indication they might be inclined to lay down the law in this finale as opposed to just laying down. It might be just rhetoric. He wants to give the perception his team will come out ready to pound the struggling Browns who are ready to fire their head coach Romeo Crennel. There is a lot of talk about the lack of black head coaches in the college ranks, but three of the ones in the NFL (Crennel, Kansas City’s Edwards, Cincinnati’s Lewis) are on the brink of losing their job. If Indianapolis head man Tony Dungy walks away, as he has suggested in recent years he might, and San Francisco interim coach Mike Singletary is not retained the problem in the NFL might exist again. It would leave Tomlin and Chicago’s Lovie Smith as the last men standing.

 

If I am Pittsburgh I sent out my “B” team with no reservations. This team has just played three of their past four games on the road. The home tilt was a 20-13 win over Dallas. The road games were in New England, Baltimore and Tennessee. All four of those teams could be in the Super Bowl tournament. Don’t they need a break? Roethlisberger has been sacked 46 times and the stat sheet does not count all the vicious hits he has taken. Warm up Byron Leftwich and let him lead the way. At running back Willie Parker has made it back from injury, but has not exactly been effective the past three weeks. He has a total of 44 rushes for 101 yards and you do not need a calculator to know that is barely more than two yards per rush. Why subject him to the pounding of a frustrated team? The Browns are throwing punches at their own teammates these days. I might not play a single starter if I am the Steelers for fear of a cheap shot leading to an injury.

 

With all of that being said, Pittsburgh really does not need to do much on offense. Their defense finally allowed a team more than 300 yards last week. They will be looking to regain their focus and possibly pitch a shutout over an offense led by effectively fourth string newcomer Bruce Gradkowski who does not even know the offense. Typically defenders are less likely to be rested in games like this because they are the ones doing the hitting. Cleveland has scored 24 offensive points in their past five games including zero touchdowns. The last time this team scored a touchdown was before Thanksgiving. It’s an ugly game neither team really wants to play, but the Steelers will not want to send their fans home unhappy: Pittsburgh 17, Cleveland 6

 

Detroit (0-15) @ Green Bay (5-10): pick GB -9.5/over 42.5

 

Last week it was trendy to pick the Lions to end their pain. I resisted the temptation and some might be looking at this as their second chance. The Packers, however, played their butts off on MNF nearly ending Chicago’s playoff hopes. They did everything in that game but win in miserable conditions on the road. Now they return home against a team without a road win since before Halloween – in 2007. Does anyone remember that Detroit was 6-2 after destroying Denver 44-7 last year? Then quarterback Jon Kitna had proclaimed them a 10 win team prior to the season and everyone laughed, but at that point it looked possible. Since that victory this team is 1-22. Someone from that television show Numbers needs to identify the odds of them losing so many close games over that span. Last year Dallas was the #1 seed at 13-3 and the Giants of course won the Super Bowl. The Lions lost to those teams 28-27 and 16-10 respectively late in 2007. Seven times they have been within a touchdown when the final gun sounded, but were unable to finish. Aaron Rodgers can relate.

 

For a guy saddled with following a legend Rodgers has done pretty well. If he has a good finale (270+ yards) against a horrid Detroit secondary Rodgers will pass for over 4,000 yards. He has 25 touchdowns against 16 turnovers. Last year Favre passed for 4,155 yards with 28 touchdowns against 18 turnovers. His numbers will be almost identical when the season is in the books. It is not his production that has hurt their season. He needs to develop his skill in the clutch. Four weeks in a row and seven times on the season his Packers have lost by no more than 4 points. Would Favre ever go 1-7 in games decided by no more than 5 points? The exception was his opening win over Minnesota. If they had started Gus Frerotte in that game he might be 0-8.

 

The defense is blamed for their season demise, but when the offense is your strongest link shouldn’t it carry you? In this game it will. Detroit will pull out all the stops. There is a high school team this season that decided their best strategy is never punting – ever, in any situation. The Lions might employ similar tactics because, well, nothing else has worked. As much as one team wants to avoid history so does the team on the other side. Detroit has already become the first team ever to go 0-15. If Green Bay hands them a win every time another team has a poor start everyone will bring up the Packers as the team that helped Detroit avoid the first ever 0-16 season. Their players don’t want that. Last week proved they have not mailed in their season and this is more proof: Green Bay 30, Detroit 17

 

Oakland (4-11) @ Tampa Bay (9-6): pick TB -12/under 40

 

There are almost too many storylines to list in this game. Sticking first to the action on the field, the Bucs need to win this game and start cheering for Philadelphia to beat Dallas later on. It is so much more than that though. Many traced the demise of the Raiders back to their loss in Super Bowl XXXVII to these same Bucs. I was at the game and in retrospect it was won a year earlier when head coach Jon Gruden was traded to Tampa Bay. The team might have made it to the big game on fumes, but once Gruden was gone their goose was cooked. They just didn’t know it yet. Several coaches later they are led by a nice guy in the form of Tom Cable who is best suited leading an offensive line. Gruden, on the other hand, is a killer. His presence has been sorely missed.

 

The next sideline is the more recent Kiffin connection. Oakland fired Lane Kiffin earlier this season. His father Monte runs the defense for Tampa Bay. In the aforementioned Super Bowl Gruden basically delivered his defense a road map to stopping MVP quarterback Rich Gannon, who will call this game for CBS just to add another intriguing element, and the high powered Oakland offense. Think the bitter Lane might be spending some time with his father this week? The duo will be reunited when the NFL season ends. Lane is now the head coach at Tennessee in the college ranks and his father will coach the defense. The timing of Monte’s departure had many, including myself even before it became official, questioning if it distracted a flagging Tampa Bay defensive effort. However, if he mailed it in while getting rolled by Carolina and San Diego in recent weeks I expect his focus to return for this one. Lane knows their weaknesses and believe me he will at worst be on the phone will his father to impart any information to stick it to his former employer.

 

In truth Oakland’s offense and special teams is on a bit of a roll. They have scored 53 points the past two games, or equal to the combined total in their 7 least productive scoring games this season. Those were home games, and while Russell has certainly passed the ball effectively of late he will struggle to duplicate that effort against the Bucs. They will force turnovers. The running game is Oakland’s best chance and explosive rookie Darren McFadden is starting to show why he was the #4 overall pick. If he can gash this defense on a big play or two it could be close. I don’t see it. Tampa Bay has faded against good teams, but will not stumble here. They are too smart to kick the ball anywhere near Higgins or Miller which limits the Raider scoring: Tampa Bay 27, Oakland 10

 

Seattle (4-11) @ Arizona (8-7): pick AZ -3.5/over 45

 

The Cardinals have become a bit of a laughingstock losing four of their past five games and stumbling towards the playoffs as the NFC West champion. There are even those who would like to see them cast aside in favor of more deserving teams with a better record. It is not that simple. Yes, Arizona has been wiped out at Philadelphia (48-20) and New England (47-7) plus at home by Minnesota (35-14) in the past four weeks. However, how soon does everyone forget the Giants came into this stadium on a serious roll and walked out with a tough 37-29 win? Motivation is strange. The Cardinals knew they had this division in the bag. They had no reason to risk injury by playing hard in snowy New England last week. Now the question is whether or not this team can flip the switch back on.

 

The first meeting between these teams signaled the changing of the guard. A 26-20 Arizona win at Qwest officially ended Seattle’s four year run as division champions. The Cardinals clinched the title three weeks later by beating the struggling Rams 34-10. The significance of waiting that long is that the played their next two outside of the NFC West. Since upsetting Dallas 30-24 way back on October 12 this team is 0-5 against teams not in their division and 3-7 on the season. If you know your math that means this game is a chance for them to finish the division sweep at 6-0. The Seahawks would love to spoil the party in Mike Holmgren’s finale as head coach. Last week they provided a huge 13-3 win over the Jets and put a serious damper on their playoff hopes in the process for his home finale.

 

Amazingly this is a coin flip game for me. The Cardinals want to enter the playoffs with momentum and certainly have none of it. Resting a starting lineup that has stumbled badly down the stretch is a choice that could have some second guessing head coach Ken Whisenhunt. It is fantastic to win a division title and get a home playoff game for the first time since most of the people reading this have been alive, and also the first since their move to Arizona. However, do they want to enter that game a joke at 8-8 and get blown away? I don’t think so. The Seahawks were getting beaten down at St. Louis two weeks ago before rallying to win. The Rams are a much less talented team. I think they will be glad to have sent out Holmgren a winner on their field and be much less interested this week. The Cardinals might turn to Matt Leinart at quarterback and continue working on the running game, but whatever their game plan is they want to win and do: Arizona 27, Seattle 20

 

Washington (8-7) @ San Francisco (6-9): pick SF -3/over 37

 

After falling on the sword for his team Jim Zorn’s team rewarded him by upsetting Philadelphia 10-3 last week. His job might still be in jeopardy. The same might not be true for interim coach Mike Singletary if he helps this team win five of their final seven games. It is possible this team would be the division champions if he had started the season at the helm. His fire took two weeks to really grab this team by the throat. A home thrashing at the hands of Seattle and mind numbing 29-24 loss at Arizona might have gone the other way if his leadership had been in place from the jump. Those two games are the difference between leading the division at 8-7 over 7-8 Arizona and being out of the hunt. In fact, just punching in a touchdown in the desert would have the teams tied. They are very close to contending.

 

Another big factor is Shaun Hill. He is not going to be on the cover of GQ magazine, but his leadership skills are there. On the other sideline Jason Campbell for all his hype is just a mediocre quarterback who protects the football. He is a less accurate Chad Pennington really. Elite quarterbacks would not lose close games to St. Louis (at home) and Cincinnati. In those games he was a combined 35/54 (64.8%) for 375 yards. He was sacked by the Rams four times and those are drive killers in a 19-17 game. He threw a total of 1 touchdown pass, and who really cares if he didn’t turn it over in either game? He failed in the most important column – wins and losses. Turning those two games around this team is 10-5 very much battling for a wild card spot.

 

I like that Washington is 4-3 on the road. San Francisco is only 3-4 at home, but beat the Jets and blew out the Rams in their only two home games in the second half of the season. The Redskins have lost their last two away from home. Their motivation is going to drop considerably in this game. Last week it was a chance to ruin a rival’s playoff prospects and with their help of their fans they put Philly on life support. Now the urgency is gone and instead the 49ers will be motivated by their fans to avoid losing 10 games. It is still a losing season, but the momentum of going 5-3 in the second half of the season will get their juices flowing. Portis has 1,407 yards rushing and wants to get over 1,500. He has been slowed by injuries though and without even the NFC rushing crown within reach the milestone is not enough to keep him going. Without his hard running this offense is flat. Gore is more motivated to play through pain as he needs only 22 yards to become the first 49er in franchise history to surpass 1,000 yards rushing in three consecutive seasons. His desire to get on the field is symbolic if this team’s effort and mindset in general. They will get this one fairly easily: San Francisco 24, Washington 14

 

Jacksonville (5-10) @ Baltimore (10-5): pick BAL -11.5/over 35.5

 

If the game last week against the Colts is any indication the Ravens would be wise not to sleep on the Jaguars in this spot. Both teams are coming off appearances on the NFL Network or as one writer once described it “the NFL’s equivalent of witness protection” which is very fitting. It’s true. Money is tight. Do you spend $5 per month just to watch a few extra NFL games? Is it even available in your area? Now that their season is over we can all rest easy knowing good old basic cable is covering all the games. Heck, you can still use a “rabbit ears” antenna until February. Speaking of rabbits, the Baltimore running backs sure looked like them sprinting down the field last week to close down Texas Stadium. I did not believe this offense would go into that building and embarrass the Cowboys, but ultimately they did thanks to two long touchdown runs. Before those scampers it was the low scoring game most of us expected.

 

This season has not turned out well for Jacksonville and this is really their playoff game as the cliché goes. Nothing is on the line, the teams do not play in the same division and they are on the road. However, their team wants to send a message that this season was not a total washout. In truth this team reached a 4-5 record despite losing all of those games by no more than 7 points. Without a bevy of injuries on the offensive line their ledger might have read 6-3 or even 7-2. However, starting in week 11 this team lost by 10, 18, 13 and 13 points to really fall into the lower tier of the NFL. Beating Green Bay and losing just 31-24 to Indianapolis who was playing to clinch a playoff spot are signs they have not quit. Neither of those teams have the defensive prowess of the Ravens. In this game Baltimore’s defense is going to punish Jacksonville. Too much of what the Jaguars do goes through the running/receiving of Maurice Jones-Drew and passing the ball to Matt Jones. The two of them represent over 2,000 yards of offense this season. Fred Taylor is out and do you really expect David Garrard to run past this defense? It is going to get ugly. On offense the Ravens are smooth. They are always set up by the defense and eventually wear their opponent down – just like last week at Dallas. Any team counting on this result to help them is going to know early they are out of luck: Baltimore 30, Jacksonville 6

 

Miami (10-5) @ NY Jets (9-6): pick NYJ -2/over 41

 

I think a few people will be watching this game. When is the last time a team that went 1-15 in the previous season has had an opportunity to knock a team that just went 16-0 out of the playoffs? I don’t need a research team to declare it is never. I also don’t need to be psychic to declare it will never happen again. When the Jets cut Chad Pennington they never imagined he would lead a team with one win into their stadium to end the season with playoff implications on the line. Heck, I’m not even sure they expected their own playoff hopes being alive. The truth is, by kickoff I fully expect it to be over for them. How they respond is anyone’s guess. Brett Favre went out like a bit of a chump last time. His weak interception against the Giants in overtime sent New York to the Super Bowl. Now he is complaining of arm pain after getting his butt kicked at Seattle to put this team on the brink of playoff elimination. The snowy conditions seemed ideal for him to thrive, but history shows the temperature dips only help him at home.

 

There are certain fans who wish Chad Pennington was back in a green uniform. I am here to tell those fans forget it. He had his opportunity to lead this team. In fact, he had several chances. It didn’t work. Just because it worked with a different team, in better weather, with a better offensive scheme does not make the decision to go with Favre a mistake. Yes, I just said that and I mean it. Pennington with the Jets is not Pennington with the Dolphins. It is a totally different scenario. Does anyone remember that in six seasons as New York’s main man he played a full slate of games just once? Or that he only passed for more than 3,000 yards twice? How about throwing for more than 17 touchdown passes once – way back in 2002? These are things people tend to forget when a guy is looking at setting career highs in completions (needs 15) and attempts (needs 39) while having already hit a new best with 3,453 yards. His QB rating (96.4) is second only to that first season as New York’s starter in 2002 and completion percentage (67.0) rests as his third best. The reality is that for Miami he was a viable quarterback option. In New York his inability to throw the deep pass in miserable weather ruined him.

 

The full paragraph was worth it. The Dolphins are seemingly built to win on the road in poor weather. Pennington even played in this stadium since 2000 right? If I’m reading the stat line correctly this will be game #41 for him here. He’s used to the cold right? Well, thanks to stat nerds we know he has played in 10 games where the weather is from 21-40. His quarterback rating is an unruly, by his standards, 76.4 and while his yardage and touchdowns are reasonable the interception total (13) is not. The Jets will attack him. Their defense is who will be facing him – not Favre. They will only be on the field at the same time if one of them fails on fourth down and the other trots on between plays to take over. This is clearly an emotional game, and therefore a very emotional pick. The Patriots are a great team. They deserve to make the playoffs. I bring them up because somewhere in the back of my mind I feel like the story of a 1-15 team winning a division title is somehow clouding the judgment of those predicting this outcome. Miami has reached this point by reeling off a 6-1 record against teams in the decidedly weaker West divisions of each conference, and is otherwise 4-4. New York is in this predicament because they were 3-5 against those same teams, and otherwise 6-1. This is a battle of the East where the J-E-T-S have lost only one game inside the division, a 19-10 decision to New England way back in week 2. They beat the Dolphins to open the season and beat them to end it. Some wild finish sends Favre out a winner and possibly into retirement spoiling a fantastic comeback: NY Jets 23, Miami 20 OT

 

Dallas (9-6) @ Philadelphia (8-6-1): pick DAL +2/under 43

 

Each network has a huge late game with playoff implications and this is the one for FOX. The Jets/Dolphins game will simultaneously run on CBS and poor suckers who live in the Bay Area will be subjected to a meaningless 49ers/Redskins game because, well, the NFL hates their fans that much. Or they love a certain contract paying them truckloads of cash to carry games on a certain satellite provider. Later in the evening everyone with a television gets to watch a winner go on loser go home “playoff” game though so all is not lost. By being involved in one of the three NFC games starting late the Cowboys and Eagles get a break. They will know how the other games finished and just how important their game really is. I’m sure FOX would love it if somehow Houston beats Chicago and Oakland beats Tampa Bay, for instance. Then this becomes a battle for a wild card regardless of who wins. However, if either the Bears or Bucs win the Eagles turn into spoilers while the Cowboys could care less how the early games go. If they win this game they are in.

 

They won the first meeting in Texas and it was a title fight atmosphere. There were nine touchdowns, eight lead challenges and a football dropped at the goal line. It is rare for a team to drop 24 points in the second quarter and lose a football games, but that’s just what the Eagles managed to do. The weirdest part of that game is that while the teams combined for 78 points there were only 717 total yards of offense, and only 7 points (a Dallas kickoff return touchdown) were not scored by the offenses. The biggest difference in this game is the backfield for the Cowboys. They are definitely without rookie Felix Jones, who scored that special teams touchdown, and no one knows if stud Marion Barber will be able to go. They have to be thrilled, however, with the production of their other rookie back Tashard Choice. He had 24 touches for 115 yards and a touchdown against the stingy Ravens defense. Mixing in performances against the similarly tough Steelers and Giants he has 424 total yards on 65 touches the past three weeks. I would take basically 22 touches for 141 yards against any defense, much less the best the NFL has to offer.

 

Last time Dallas won the sack battle 4-0. Typically the Eagles are known for blitzing the snot out of opposing quarterbacks. Tony Romo has a balky back and “feels like $100”. In two of their road losses he did not play, and at Arizona he finished the game hurt leaving his only complete failure the setback at Pittsburgh when his pick six was the winning margin. This one is definitely on him. I question how much Philly is going to stay up for this game when their playoff torch has been snuffed out. It is very possible Tampa Bay rolls up a big halftime lead on Oakland and most players will know they have no shot well before kickoff. There is talk about the McNabb/Reid marriage breaking up after this season, but I believe both are back regardless of this outcome. McNabb has had the best passing season of his great career and with just 135 yards will set a new personal high. He is already third on his personal list in touchdown passes (21) and the 22 sacks he has taken are by far his lowest total in seasons he has played 14+ games (45, 39, 43, 32, 44 were the others). The turnovers (16) are the only sore spot and Dallas is looking to take advantage. This is going to be a great game assuming the Eagles want it. I think they do, but the Cowboys just can’t miss the playoffs. Everyone needs to see them get their shot, just like the Patriots. A big play late is the difference and they slide in: Dallas 20, Philadelphia 17

 

Denver (8-7) @ San Diego (7-8): pick SD -7.5/over 48.5

 

There is no Monday Night Football this week, so NBC’s Sunday Night Football marks the end of the regular season. It was an easy decision to flex this game into primetime. I say “regular season” but truly this is a playoff game. The winner enters the playoffs and the loser goes home regardless of anything else that happens this week. Perhaps for the first time I am thankful for the blown call the first time these teams hooked up. Some less intelligent members of the media are claiming that “it’s all good” now that the Chargers are playing for the division title with their improbable comeback from 4-8. However, it’s not. They would be resting starters this week with the crown already locked up if that call goes the right way. Instead San Diego has to win this game to right that wrong.

 

I think too many people assume the Chargers are simply destined to win. They are at home. They have all the momentum. They were jobbed by the bad call. I don’t think so. The Broncos could care less about those things. They can undo a monumental collapse and claim their playoff spot by playing well, and just might do it. Jay Cutler has three quality receivers at his disposal. Brandon Marshall has 98 receptions, rookie Eddie Royal has 904 receiving yards and Brandon Stokley is still one of the best players out of the slot. It’s a good thing because the team has lost 843 running backs to injured reserve this season. One of them, rookie fullback Peyton Hillis, is going to lead the team in rushing with 343 yards which is barely over the NFL record for a single game. How in the world does Denver still rank #12 in rushing yards per game?

 

On the other side San Diego’s offense is catching fire at just the right time. I’m not sure exactly what happened early in their game at Kansas City, but they fired it up late and sandwiched that 22-21 win with 75 points scored by any means necessary. LaDainian Tomlinson has not been a dominant force this season and part of it can be blamed on letting veteran fullback Lorenzo Neal leave for Baltimore, and backup running back Michael Turner sign with Atlanta. I realize there were logical reasons, age and the salary cap, for both moves but the result has been devastating for LT. There is a chance he falls short of 300 carries for the first time in his eight year career. He needs 22 to get there and has reached that total only three times this season. His average per rush (3.6) is the lowest since his rookie season and down dramatically from last year (4.7) and the year before (5.2). He has scored 15+ total touchdowns every season since he posted 10 as a rookie. If he fails to score in this game it will leave him with a career low 9, and in terms of rushing yardage he needs 222 (good luck) to avoid finishing with a career low. He is also likely to finish with a new low in total yards. Now that I have beaten LT up, it is time to deliver the good news. Tomlinson will destroy this defense.

 

The Broncos just had 30 dropped on them by both Carolina and Buffalo. If the Chargers hit that number it will be the second time this season three teams in a row went “treinta” on them. Already eight of fifteen opponents have scored 30+. If Denver’s offense, notably their passing game, was not so dynamic they would probably be 5-10 or worse. I am looking for a shootout like everyone else in the free world. Cutler vs. Rivers is going to be much more exciting for viewers than Favre vs. Pennington earlier in the day. Do they set an over/under on passing yards for both quarterbacks in regular season games? It might be around 550 in this one and I’m taking over. In fact, they might break 700. An awesome thriller ends with the team possessing an actual professional running back winning. LT is the difference: San Diego 40, Denver 31