This was a painful week for me. I’m not that upset at going 8-6 straight up (54-34 overall) because there were some upsets, but did I have to be on the short end of all the close finishes? St. Louis, Atlanta and Houston all hurt me in the final 15 seconds of their games by coming from behind not to mention Dallas failing in overtime. The 11-2 mark could have put me in solid shape at 63% on the season. However, I did stay ahead against the spread at 8-6 (50-34-3) which is nice knowing I can absorb my inevitable terrible week. My showing on the over/under was a frustrating 7-7 (39-45-3) considering 4 more points total would have put me at 10-4.

San Diego (3-3) @ Buffalo (4-1): pick SD +1/under 46.5

This is one of those games where it is hard to ignore the situation. The Chargers just played an emotional primetime game, blowing out the hated Patriots. Now they travel across the country to play a Bills team who has spent two weeks preparing for them. San Diego’s offense is potent, but they have struggled on the road. They “lost” at Denver, trailed big at Oakland and lost at Miami. They didn’t score in the first half against the Raiders and put up only 10 total against the Dolphins.

The Bills have been at home only twice, a wipeout of now hapless Seattle (34-10) and come from behind win over Oakland (24-23). Their defense has been solid all season other than a mirage in the desert the last time out. Arizona took advantage of Trent Edwards leaving the game and made them pay for turnovers. Warner’s 33/42 performance was impressive in that he completed 79% of his passes, but he had just 6 yards per attempt. Rivers can probably get to this defense, especially with McGee out and Youboty possibly out at cornerback. Edwards should be healthy enough to return the favor although he lacks the targets to hurt their oft-beaten secondary. Both teams will be able to run the ball successfully. The rest/travel issue gives me great pause, but the visitors are up against the wall and need this one more: San Diego 23, Buffalo 20

New Orleans (3-3) @ Carolina (4-2): pick NO +3/over 43.5

It’s usually fun and unpredictable when these division rivals get together. In a very competitive NFC South it is safe to say the rematch in the final week of the season might have some playoff implications given the strength both teams have shown at times this season. Each team is coming off a wipeout, but New Orleans won theirs 34-3 over Oakland and Carolina lost theirs 27-3 at Tampa Bay. Delhomme isn’t the first quarterback to exit with a 38.6 QB rating (3 interceptions) from the big pirate ship and he won’t be the last. On the other side Brees is making Marino sweat a little over one of his remaining records.

The single season passing mark is 5,083 yards and at his current pace Brees would enter the final four games needing 1,097 yards to get there or 274 yards per game. Oakland’s Gannon in 2004 was derailed in part by a rainy meeting with Kansas City, but the Saints play only two games outdoors after Thanksiving. Tampa Bay is one, Chicago is the other. The run is impressive because he has done it without Colston and Shockey who both are expected to return this week. A great quarterback can raise the level of his receivers. Back to Jake though, he is 6-2 against the team who let him get away although both losses are at home. He missed both of last season’s meetings.

The past three have gone to the road team in the series. It’s Carolina’s top five defense against a top five offense from New Orleans. I like the Panthers a little better on both sides (offense/defense) of the running game equation. Their game plan will be more conservative and I like it when I can count on a team. The Saints haven’t won on the road yet in two closes calls at Washington and Denver while the Panthers are 3-0 at home. Enough said, but it will be close: Carolina 24, New Orleans 22

Minnesota (3-3) @ Chicago (3-3): pick MIN +3.5/over 37.5

Other than Detroit who is doing their best impression of a placeholder anyone can win the NFC South. With Green Bay tussling with Indianapolis it is very possible the winner of this game moves into sole possession of the lead as we approach the halfway mark. I’m not sure what it says about the quarterbacks who have come out of college in the past decade, but this is Gus Frerotte vs. Kyle Orton. Sadly the NFL has become littered with guys who are counted on not to screw it up instead of players who grab a game by the throat.

Even with a pair of solid defenses somehow points always get scored when these teams meet, and as with many rivalries the games are close. Minnesota swept last season and Chicago swept in 2006, but in the four previous seasons the home team won both meetings. Translating that, the Bears had won five in a row at home against the Vikes before last year’s setback. Because each team is strong against the run they are challenged via the pass and both have held up well including solid sack totals. Neither quarterback is mobile so I think we can expect some game changing situations resulting from pressure. Last year’s hot shot rookie running back Adrian Peterson takes on this year’s leader Matt Forte. “All Day” has been a shade inconsistent while the rook hasn’t broken 100 yards since the opener. Another tight finish favors the home team: Chicago 21, Minnesota 19

Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Cincinnati (0-6): pick PIT -9.5/over 34.5

Looking at the records this appears to be a lock for the Steelers, but I wouldn’t mark them off on your survivor pool without a little thought. Things are certainly bad for the Bengals considering they want to make a guy who was on the street a few weeks ago facing court proceedings their starting running back not to mention their franchise quarterback being hurt. Yet somehow despite six losses they have been in nearly every game. They brought beads of sweat to the Giants and Cowboys in their stadium even. Then again, Palmer was the quarterback for both games. Fitzpatrick has a Harvard degree to fall back on and it’s a good thing. Even with one of the best tandems of receivers in the NFL he has mustered up just 308 yards passing on 68 attempts this season.

The offense has totally disappeared in Cincinnati and it seems like yesterday they were losing games 38-35, or 51-45. Suddenly in their past 11 games the team has scored over 23 points just once and it was the 2007 season finale against Miami who came in 1-14. The Steelers are a shaky 4-1 to be sure. Three of their wins could have just as easily gone the other way. Injuries are a factor in the backfield where Mewelde Moore might be their lone reliable threat. I would still take him over Cedric Benson especially considering the defensive units trying to stop each guy. Big Ben is also ailing. This is going to be very interesting because I feel like Pittsburgh will just slug them with defense, running with whatever guy is available and short passes to keep Roethlisberger from getting hammered. It will be close enough to keep the home fans in their seats to the fourth quarter: Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 13

Tennessee (5-0) @ Kansas City (1-4): pick TEN -7/over 35

The Chiefs are a mess right now. They played hardball with Green Bay attempting to steal a second round pick for tight end Tony Gonzalez as opposed to the very reasonable third round selection on the table. The Packers didn’t bite and now they have an Oscar winning performance from Gonzo pretending he isn’t annoyed and disappointed. Franchise running back Larry Johnson is in trouble and won’t play. Croyle says he is starting at quarterback as if anyone cares. The DNA of every quarterback on their team could be combined in a lab and it wouldn’t produce a guy capable of beating this Titans defense.

Kerry Collins has been through the gamut in his 15 year NFL career spanning five teams. He was a franchise starter for expansion Carolina as the #5 overall pick, unwanted in New Orleans after a short stint, revived in New York leading the Giants to a Super Bowl, paid in Oakland for keeping the seat warm and now here he is leading the last unbeaten team. Bear in mind his team’s passing numbers are in the bottom five not far ahead of these inept Chiefs. The rushing offense figures per game are also close with Kansas City actually a full yard better on average carries.

These teams are separated by defense. Tennessee flat out manhandles their opponent. Only one team has scored two touchdowns on them this season in a game. The Chiefs gave up two in the second quarter of last week’s 34-0 debacle in Carolina. On the plus side Arrowhead Stadium is a nice home field advantage coming off a bye. They did upset Denver in their last home game, but I’ve already been wrong picking against the Titans twice this season: Tennessee 26, Kansas City 10

Baltimore (2-3) @ Miami (2-3): pick MIA -2.5/under 37

These teams have a lot more in common than their identical records. Both are led by first year head coaches and new starting quarterbacks. The Ravens have rookie Joe Flacco who after last week’s performance appears to be on the Alex Smith TD/INT ratio path for his first campaign. Flacco is sitting on 1/7 after five outings while Smith finished at 1/11 in nine games. He has either been sacked or intercepted on 17 of his 154 passing plays this season. Enter a rabid Dolphin defense spurred by inflammatory comments about their head coach Cam Cameron not having much to work with in last year’s 1-15 train wreck and things get interesting. Miami always plays well on defense at home and has allowed 30 points while splitting two games this season.

The Ravens can certainly dominate on defense with Ray Lewis at the middle in his familiar surroundings as a former Miami Hurricane. The Dolphins have made the “Wildcat” formation a staple of their offense and will need it because running straight at this defense will not work. Both teams will struggle to move the ball. Miami is more vulnerable to the pass, but against a team with really only one effective receiving threat this season does it matter? This would be a good week for Todd Heap to show up. I’m sure his FFL owners would be happy considering he has 18 yards receiving per game without a touchdown. It does not make sense for me to take the Dolphins other than to count on their veteran quarterback Pennington to be happy with punts while Flacco forces a few bad throws for interceptions. With a considerable amount of hesitation they triple their 2007 win total: Miami 13, Baltimore 9

San Francisco (2-4) @ NY Giants (4-1): pick NYG -10/under 47

New York showed last week that on any given Monday anything can happen in the NFL. Now they return home on a short week once again trying to ostensibly bury a team’s playoff hopes for the season. The 49ers have the benefit of playing in the weak NFC West, but having already lost to the division leading Cardinals and with the rematch in the desert their hopes would be slim. Their defense is in the process of being rebuilt and I think a few parts might be on back order. They have allowed 30+ points four times already including the past three weeks. It isn’t all on the defense I know, but you get the point.

The Giants don’t really care about any problems the 49ers are having. They have a precarious lead in the NFC East and have three sharks wading in the waters below them. I know I’m laying off the stats a bit this week, but are they really averaging 6.1 yards per rush on offense? Yes, and somehow last week they piled up 181 yards rushing with a 7.2 average minus any really long runs (none over 18) while losing by three touchdowns. Interceptions will do that to you, and it ruined a string of 12 straight wins away from home dating back to last year’s season opener. However, despite losing their final four at home last year they have won their first three this season so perhaps they are returning to normalcy.

I’m still convinced J.T. O’Sullivan is part of some sort of exchange program with the CFL. I had some high school friends who went to UC-Davis and I never heard them talking about any football team. He has been sacked 23 times and turned it over 12 times. The Meadowlands will be his personal house of horrors by the end of the first quarter. I would say they can pound Gore and hope for the best, but Martz will never do it: NY Giants 33, San Francisco 10

Dallas (4-2) @ St. Louis (1-4): pick DAL -6/under 48

It’s never dull in Big D. I said before the draft it was more likely Blinky would be playing corner for them than Adam, formerly PacMan Jones. It looks like I’ll be more right than wrong unless Goodell loses his mind or receives a briefcase filled with unmarked bills from Jerry Jones. Star quarterback Tony Romo broke his pinky so the team gave up draft picks to acquire a solid #2 wide receiver in the form of Roy Williams. Having one on the team wasn’t enough and I wonder if the new Roy will be paying off the incumbent Roy to change his name. You know, like guys pay for uniform numbers. Maybe safety Roy can change his name to Tres Uno.

I digress, but it is almost shocking to consider Williams had just one season over 836 yards receiving with Detroit. As hapless as they are the team did pass for a lot of yards. The three times he fell short he played 14, 13 and 12 games but only once did he average enough to get there if healthy which was last year. Nevertheless this is potentially a great move because as the drama continues Romo might play with his broken digit.

With all of that being said apparently there is a game against the Rams to deal with. When Dallas is done thanking them before the game for knocking off Washington last week it should be a return to normalcy for both teams. Lost in the circus rookie running back Felix Jones was injured, but the Cowboys are still going to run early and often on this defense behind Barber and possibly another rookie Tashard Choice. St. Louis had given up 31+ points in each game of their 0-4 start and should be back in form here. Dallas has been erratic on defense, but they can roll into a stadium and score three touchdowns consistently. It’s the safe pick even if Brad Johnson is the guy: Dallas 30, St. Louis 17

Detroit (0-5) @ Houston (1-4): pick HOU -8.5/over 46.5

The Lions had their hopes of a first victory dashed in the final second with the help of a questionable call at Minnesota. It has become a troubling trend this season. The Texans appeared heading for another loss as well when Miami scored to take a 28-23 lead with 1:45 remaining. However, Schaub shook off a sack on the first play of the subsequent drive then quickly completed 4/10 passes before running in the winning touchdown. I have always felt like the Texans were better than their record indicated especially with a close loss at Jacksonville and mind numbing 31-27 defeat to Indianapolis when they blew a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter. The same feeling doesn’t strike me, or anyone else, with the Lions.

At least Detroit gave their future a chance by trading away Roy Williams. Two additional picks and moving from the seventh to sixth round will certainly help them build through the draft. I can hardly wait for them to target Michael Crabtree out of Texas Tech. Oh wait, Matt Millen has been fired. There is also the matter of disgruntled starting quarterback Jon Kitna being forced onto the IR. He gave them two seasons with over 4,000 yards passing and apparently isn’t aware his 63 turnovers in 36 games might be part of the reason he was benched – or the 129 sacks.  Now it’s on Dan Orlovsky and at this point I wonder if the fans wish J.T. O’Sullivan had hung around. Last week was a nice showing for the Lions, tremendous in fact considering it was on the road. Now it’s back to reality and the Texans are due to unload on someone: Houston 34, Detroit 13

Indianapolis (3-2) @ Green Bay (3-3): pick IND +0/over 46.5

These teams were both 13-3 and certainly came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations. The Packers are fortunate enough to be treading water with the rest of the NFC North, but the visiting Colts are losing ground in a hurry against Tennessee and there are only two wild cards available. A few fans probably wish this was another meeting between the all-time leading passer Brett Favre and the guy likely to pass him soon Peyton Manning. The last one ended with Indy winning 45-31 and nine combined touchdown passes. Peyton’s only trip to Lambeau came in 2000 and it was a 26-24 loss when the quarterbacks had only five scoring strikes combined. Given the way Rodgers has gutted out his injured shoulder he is starting to resemble Favre in that respect.

Speaking of injuries the Colts have huge issues in their backfield with Addai out. It will be up to veteran Dominic Rhodes to run the ball for the least productive rushing attack in the NFL. They obviously have the personnel in the passing game to compensate, but going up against a porous run defense might try their luck with Rhodes first. Indy hasn’t exactly been stout against the run either. It’s so bad they tried to trade for a defensive tackle, but McCargo was sent back to Buffalo after failing his physical. On the positive side Ryan Grant had 33 carries last week in Seattle, up from his previous season high of 18. On the negative side he failed to set a season best in yards, settling for 90 and a 2.7 average rush. His effectiveness is key to balancing the offense and keeping Peyton away from their secondary. Speaking of weak rushing averages Rhodes carried 25 times for 73 yards (2.9) but also faces a porous run defense. I think last week the Colts broke through to snap their early season slump although this is a coin toss game for me: Indianapolis 28, Green Bay 24

NY Jets (3-2) @ Oakland (1-4): pick NYJ -3/under 43

The Favre comeback has had some odd repercussions and this is one of them. Instead of his finale in the Black Hole being one of the most memorable moments in NFL history it will instead be leading a mediocre team against one in turmoil. Five years ago I witnessed in person the professional football equivalent of a miracle performance. It isn’t overstating it to say footballs soared through the sky as if guided by angels into the outstretched arms of Packer receivers down field. Favre threw for 399 yards that night in a 41-7 rout and in the process kept his consecutive start streak intact despite grieving the death of his father. The way Brees treated this defense last week he might turn in similar numbers to his last visit.

For the Raiders to have a chance it starts with running the football, which unfortunately for them is nearly half the offense. They also need to figure out a way to effectively rotate their three very different running backs now that Fargas is back and assuming McFadden is healthy. If neither is straight Bush needs to be in there, but it might not matter against this Jets front seven. Russell obviously has struggled mightily passing the football. Part of the problem is mediocre receivers. At this point high priced signing Javon Walker is interchangeable with Ashley Lelie who they signed off the street. In fact, Lelie has more receptions and yards. If Russell is going to have a breakthrough game this might be it although expect a lot of the damage to be done on screen passes. I think Thomas Jones has a solid day at the office while Favre patiently picks his spots against this defense. The Raiders won’t quit at home like they did last week, but they won’t win either: NY Jets 22, Oakland 16

Cleveland (2-3) @ Washington (4-2): pick CLE +8/over 42

It’s amazing how one game completely changed the perception of both teams. Everyone, including me, had the Browns at 1-4 with the champion Giants coming in on MNF. A smashing 35-14 victory had them brimming with confidence. Braylon Edwards, apparently not a math major at Michigan, even called it a “14 game season” now that they have their two wins. Someone needs to explain to him that they don’t start counting games with the first win. Anyway, the Redskins were flying high having lost only to those same G-Men which no one held against them. Then along came the lowly winless Rams. Even if St. Louis got a fluke touchdown and miracle completion leading to a field goal in the 19-17 loss they never should have been in that position.

This is the point of the season where teams really choose their path. I never believed Cleveland would be in this year’s playoffs because their schedule is so perilous and looking at it now only home games with Baltimore, Houston and Cincinnati show up as potential victories while every other game should be a struggle. They are desperate. Washington is desperate because the NFC East is a meat grinder. Since losing the opener their past five games have been decided by 5, 7, 2, 6 and 2 points. The luck ran out last week. Can they get it back?

Campbell can be efficient against this defense while Anderson needs to retain his swagger. The Redskin running game could be in trouble if Portis can’t go considering they signed Shaun Alexander. The 2005 MVP is so good the Steelers and Colts didn’t pick him up even as their running backs went down one after the other. Then again “old man” (he’s 29) Jamal Lewis seems to have lost his punch this year as last week’s 88 rushing yards marked a season best. I will still go with the upset that didn’t look one when the schedule came out. Call it a shocker and it misses send angry emails: Cleveland 27, Washington 23

Seattle (1-4) @ Tampa Bay (4-2): pick TB -10/over 38

John Madden is calling in “sick” for this one. I would too. Seneca Wallace is a nice backup quarterback and he is stepping up for his team despite an injured calf. Considering he is one of their better receiving options he might need a cloning chamber for them to pull this upset. The Seahawks are a disaster throwing the football to the point where last week Koren Robinson led the team with 23 receiving yards. Yes, that Koren Robinson. They have done a good job running the ball led by Julius Jones, but that’s not happening against the Buc defense.

I’ll try to be brief because this is like breaking down Kobe Bryant against Barack Obama is a game of H-O-R-S-E. On the other side of the football Garcia was a pro last week in leading a rout of Carolina. He is 28/37 for 266 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception since taking over for the injured Griese, a span of just under 6 quarters. This offense has averaged 27 points while going 3-0 at home. Is this a good time to mention that in two long road trips the Seahawks were outscored 78-16? I believe pride will keep them a little closer, and even though everyone has gone crazy for the Rays a few might watch this team hold their division lead another week: Tampa Bay 26, Seattle 13

Denver (4-2) @ New England (3-2): pick DEN +3.5/under 48.5

Last week the Patriots were crushed in San Diego by one of their bigger rivals this decade. Now another one comes into their stadium. The Broncos won the last meeting here 17-7 in 2006, and beat them twice at home in 2005 including of course ending their two year reign as Super Bowl champions. Overall since Brady took over to start New England’s reign of terror on the AFC they are 1-5 against Denver and 0-2 at home with the other loss coming in 2002. Let’s consider for a moment that the Pats are 86-24 in the regular season since Brady took over, throwing out this season. The Broncos are responsible for 1 out of every 6 losses they have suffered in those seven seasons.

History is important, and the present is even more reason to expect success from the visitors. Cassel is now their starter so if they had problems with Brady how about without? I think both of these teams are, for lack of a better term, overrated. New England has staggered past the Chiefs, Jets and 49ers for their wins. None of those teams will be mistaken for great. Denver lost to the hapless Chiefs and stole wins over the Chargers and Saints on terrible calls. If the NFL had integrity this team would be 2-4. However, here they are.

Neither team can stop the run, but while Denver has the running backs to take advantage New England is dealing with injuries at the position. At least I think they are. No one seems to know what is going on with Maroney’s shoulder because Belichick protects information better than the CIA. The Patriots are not the same on defense, obviously, having allowed 38, 21 and 30 points their past three games. The Broncos have nothing to brag about in that department, but are in a better position to succeed because Champ Bailey can be put on Randy Moss. Wes Welker’s short underneath receptions will enough to move the chains once in a while, but Denver is going to control this game from the outset: Denver 28, New England 20