Chances were taken and let’s just say it didn’t work out very well. A couple very unpredictable results didn’t help. The Yahoo pick’em users certainly agreed with me taking Dallas over St. Louis (88%) and the Jets over Oakland (91%) and I’ll blame the power outage for picking San Diego over Buffalo. I mean come on it’s the Chargers right? Enough excuses, and I’m just kidding anyway. It was a 7-7 week straight up (61-41 overall) pushing me three behind my one-sided rivalry with Yahoo’s Mike Silver (64-38) who has no idea I’m competing with him. Against the spread a long predicted disaster finally struck as I went with a lot of ‘dogs and finished 4-9-1 chewing into my cushion (54-43-1 overall). I did get out some season long frustration on the over/under at 8-5-1 (47-50-4 overall) which I hope becomes a trend.

Oakland (2-4) @ Baltimore (3-3): pick BAL -6.5/under 36

Personally I am glad Tom Cable recorded his first victory last week in the Black Hole. This Raider team has some good players, but this analysis will not take long. JaMarcus Russell is still developing as a quarterback. Cable is cutting him loose because unlike Kiffin he has nothing to lose given his interim tag as head coach. If he follows that pattern this week the Ravens will eat him alive in their stadium. Then again, what are the chances of running on a team allowing an NFL low 2.8 yards per carry? Baltimore has allowed only 1 rushing touchdown this season. In case you haven’t watched Raider games they struggling scoring touchdowns period. I hope Janikowski is ready for a few field goals of 55+ yards to keep them in this one.

Perhaps making matters worse are the recent comments from linebacker Terrell Suggs saying “We definitely like to send a message to rookie running backs who think they’ve made it”. Pittsburgh rookie Rashard Mendenhall was injured and lost for the season against this defense. How many times is Cable willing to risk first year stud Darren McFadden against these thugs? On the other side of the ball Oakland has struggled to stop the run. Baltimore has a low average rush (3.7) but remain dedicated to the run and rank #7 in yards per game (134.7). That’s slightly lower than what the Raiders allow and their average allowed (4.6) is seventh highest in the NFL. This is a typical punch you in the mouth, stagger you and then stand over your unconscious body type of a game: Baltimore 20, Oakland 6

Arizona (4-2) @ Carolina (5-2): pick CAR -4/over 42.5

It is tough to get a really good read on either team. The best I can say about the Panthers is their home play (4-0) has been consistently good and road play (1-2) pretty bad. Never has it been more evident than the past two weeks against NFC South contenders. They lost 27-3 at Tampa Bay then smoked New Orleans 30-7 at home. The Cardinals allowed 56 to the Jets, thumped the Bills when their quarterback went down and then beat Dallas in a game where their quarterback was injured. Again there is a trend, the past two were at home (3-0 overall) and the first was on the road (1-2 overall). As they say in real estate, location, location, location. I’m also pretty sure Jake Delhomme is a little nervous against this defense shooting for the triple play. He missed half the team’s games from 2006-2007 and saying their success hinges on his health is like saying breathing is important to living.

Based on the above location is the biggest factor by far. Teams coming east almost always struggle, and vice versa. The run defenses are identical in yards per carry allowed (4.0) but the important stat for me is that Arizona’s opponents run just 23.3 times per game, the fourth lowest in the NFL. Even without a ton of success running this season they won’t give up on it behind Williams and Stewart. The Cardinals are dead last with 3.2 yards per carry. Forget 100 yard, Edgerrin James has failed to break 60 in four of their six games. Their rookie Hightower is not much more than a fantasy football touchdown vulture. Carolina will be trying to control the game on the ground while Arizona should be forced to win it in the air, if they can get on the field. How’s that going to work against a team second in the NFL with 168.7 passing yards per game allowed? Warner is on a roll, but this defense is sixth in the NFL for opposing completion percentage (56.9%). Things will be a lot easier for Delhomme against a unit letting quarterbacks complete 67% of their passes. Balance always wins out and Warner will be familiar with what mouth wash Peppers prefers by the end of this: Carolina 30, Arizona 15

Tampa Bay (5-2) @ Dallas (4-3): pick TB +3/over 40.5

When I broke down the Cowboys last week I should have taken a look at Brad Johnson’s final season in Minnesota (2006) a little more closely. He had his second most interceptions (15) despite having five seasons with more pass attempts. I’ve always known him as a guy who protects the football and a closer look does show over half those picks (9) coming in three games. He hasn’t thrown multiple interceptions in consecutive games since the final two outings of 2003 when his Bucs were finishing up their Super Bowl hangover. Now the team he led to glory tries to derail his new team’s hopes before they can bother blowing it in the playoffs.

The Buccaneers honestly have been one of the best teams no one is talking about. While everyone is busy analyzing what brand of underwear Terrell Owens has on, Tampa Bay has yet to lose by more than 4 points despite playing a five teams who are at least 3-3 when playing other teams. Throwing out New Orleans/Seattle (3-8) their other games came against teams who are 20-9 against the rest of the NFL. These guys are for real and they have done it against good teams. Their run defense is better although their rushing offense is a little behind Dallas. Then again, without Felix Jones the edge goes away.

Is coming home going to cure the ‘Boys of all that ails them? Probably not and here’s why. Other analysts look at pass defense and measure yardage allowed per game. In this case the teams are almost dead even at 201 (Tampa Bay) and 203 (Dallas) but that’s not the whole story. Touchdowns are also even (9) but Tampa Bay has a 12-2 edge in interceptions. They also lead big in completion percentage allowed (56.8 to 62.6). Garcia takes on a wounded defense and with a successful running game (did you see Steven Jackson run over these guys?) can be selective. Johnson might need to throw some passes against an opportunistic defense who knows he will be in there. Heck, they also know what he can do because he played for them a few years ago. I’m not sure why this pick bothers me, but it seems like a lock for another Cowboy loss: Tampa Bay 24, Dallas 21

Washington (5-2) @ Detroit (0-6): pick WAS -7.5/over 42

If you’re going to see the Redskins don’t plan on leaving early. Since the NFL’s showcase opener, a dreadfully boring 16-7 loss, their games have all been decided by 2-7 points. They let by 11 with three minutes left last week against Cleveland, but a touchdown, two point conversion and defense stop had the Browns within a field goal of forcing overtime. It was my upset special of the week and now I’m left wondering if I was a week early or if this team is simply charmed. Their play on the road doesn’t drop off. After losing the aforementioned opener to the Giants they won at full strength Dallas and Philadelphia. Maybe getting back on the road will help them considering they gave St. Louis their first win of the season two weeks ago. Can the Lions do it to them this week? Are the Bengals getting excited for week 15?

I promise it would be a record to lose to teams who are 0-4, 0-6 and then 0-14 in one season but let’s stop that train right there. Detroit is very different from the Rams who feature a star running back and got lucky in the end. The Lions are led in rushing by rookie Kevin Smith. His season high in yards is 62 and only once has he carried the ball more than 10 times. I thought Martz left town? With 2.0 yards per carry over the past two games don’t expect much from Rudi Johnson either. The passing game took a major hit when Roy Williams was traded to Dallas. The move to Orlovsky at quarterback has helped in the turnover department though. He hasn’t lost a fumble and has just 1 interception in 69 passes in their last three games. Aside from a big play to Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey acting as their version of Wes Welker the offense didn’t do much against Houston.

If Detroit ever gets into fight they can run the ball more than their NFL low 18.2 carries per game. Washington should be able to run plenty on their defense. Portis is revitalized with 818 rushing yards this season. If it doesn’t work out only one team gives up more passing yards than the Lions per game (251.2). They have allowed 11 touchdowns against 1 interception not to mention letting quarterbacks complete 68% of their passes. Balance that against the Redskins on defense at 55.5%. This shouldn’t get into upset territory on paper, but the Lions are at least a viable threat at home: Washington 27, Detroit 17

Buffalo (5-1) @ Miami (2-4): pick BUF -1/under 42.5

Maybe the Dolphins have slowly lost the magic after beating last year’s AFC Championship Game participants in consecutive games. They haven’t beaten any other team. The Bills didn’t even let a power outage stop them. Their only kryptonite has been a trip to Arizona when starting quarterback Trent Edwards suffered a concussion and left the game. He was razor sharp in his return and has this team heading for an unlikely AFC East title. Miami on the other hand is discussing a quarterback change to rookie Chad Henne as it becomes evident a playoff berth isn’t within their reach. Losing this game won’t be the final nail in their coffin, but they’ll be driving by the funeral home.

Because the schedule makers always do something dumb, Buffalo is playing their first divisional opponent. They couldn’t be happier to see it is Miami. They swept the season series last year, as every team in the division did against the ‘Fins. Edwards is making his first start in this stadium having thrown 4 touchdown passes in the team’s 38-17 home win. The Bills have won four straight and seven of the past eight. Heck, they’ve won 10 of 12. History can be turned around if Miami controls the run. Their defense and Buffalo’s offense average 3.6 yards per carry. Likewise on the other side of the ball the averages jump to 4.1 meaning Miami could win the rushing battle.

Weather won’t be an issue. The Bills won their first trip to Florida beating Jacksonville 20-16 when it was more of a factor in September. For passing offense amazingly enough the offensive stats are nearly identical. Both teams have a 7/3 touchdown/interception total, Buffalo leads completion percentage (70.1-68.1) and Miami leads yards per game (247.0-241.3) with the teams in a near dead heat in attempts (Miami 21.0-20.3). Surprised? I was. The Dolphins don’t appear to have the talent and certainly lack a true #1 like Lee Evans. The other difference of course is pass defense where the Bills have quality personnel. This is going to be a struggle, but I have blown it two weeks in a row picking the ‘Fins: Buffalo 20, Miami 17

St. Louis (2-4) @ New England (4-2): pick NE -7/under 44

There can’t be a more fitting opponent for the Patriots as they try to hold onto their dynasty. It all started for them in Super Bowl XXIV when they upset the mighty Rams for the first of three titles. Suddenly three years have gone by without a championship despite going to the big game at 18-0 last year only to be the victim of an even bigger upset. Now with Brady on the sidelines and their stable of running backs thinning somehow they managed to destroy AFC West leading Denver 41-7. On one magical Monday night they went from a team who had been blown away twice in three games to their usual top of the heap AFC power – maybe. Speaking of turnarounds the Rams have just muscled past two of the better NFC teams Washington and Dallas. Both come with a footnote because the first was a comeback miracle and the second came against an aging backup quarterback. Still, it is worth noting these guys have already played the entire NFC East, unquestionably football’s best division, and gone 2-2.

The Patriots have had wide ranging results in recent weeks. Three of their past four games have been decided by 20+ points. The same goes for the Rams who have lost four times by 17+ and just won by 20. Odds tell me this is another New England rout, but it’s time to take a closer look. How in the world do the Pats average 4.4 yards per carry? It’s the offensive line people. Maroney is done for the season and Jordan is hurt so Morris and Faulk, who are over 30 and supposed be “done” in running back years, have combined to average 5.0, exactly the total St. Louis allows. On the flip side New England allows 4.5 and here comes white hot Steven Jackson. The recipe should have worked last week for Denver, but they turned it over 5 times. Unlike the Broncos though this passing offense has been weak with only 3 touchdowns through the air all season. Torry Holt is slumping as well. The time to “get” this team might have passed. Their coaching staff has proven to be among the best in making due with injuries and this is the latest example. It won’t be a total walk, but close: New England 27, St. Louis 13

San Diego (3-4) @ New Orleans (3-4): pick NO +3.5/over 44.5

This one takes place across the pond at fabled Wembley Stadium. Americans like to think football is the only sport in the world, but these fans would much prefer their version of the sport – soccer. Another thing they aren’t used to is a lot of scoring because soccer games often end without multiple goals being scored. This one should see a lot of action considering the Saints had put up 24+ in every game until last week’s 30-7 loss at Carolina. The Chargers have scored 24+ five times, but were slowed down twice in the past two weeks (10, 14) both resulting in losses. What fans won’t see is explosive running back Reggie Bush who wrecked his knee in the midst of a season looking like it would justify his #2 overall draft position. Now we find out if McAllister is really healthy. He has 48 carries over the past four games for a solid 4.13 average rush.

These teams have very similar numbers on both offense and defense in the running game. Tomlinson might be making the trip to London, but he certainly isn’t healthy. His 3.6 average is the lowest since his rookie season. The worst front office move this team made might be letting Michael Turner leave. If he’s in the fold I don’t think they are position to lose at the last minute to Carolina or Denver. Close road losses to Miami and Buffalo might have been reversed too. As it stands this game is looking like an aerial shootout. The Saints have Colston and Shockey back on the field. Colston didn’t catch a pass, but Shockey had 5 in his return. New Orleans leads the NFL with 317.7 passing yards per game and San Diego leads with 16 touchdown passes. The Chargers are dead last in yards allowed (254.6) while the Saints are also in the bottom half (222.4). The big difference in the secondary is completion percentage allowed. New Orleans is fifth (55.6%) while San Diego is fifth worst (67.3%). If Brees can be accurate and Rivers can’t it doesn’t look good for the team who will be suffering a little more from the travel. Both are coming off road games, but the Saints had a shorter first trip: New Orleans 31, San Diego 27

Kansas City (1-5) @ NY Jets (3-3): pick NYJ -11.5/under 39

In case we haven’t been force fed enough during the Brett Favre saga now there are allegations he provided inside information to Green Bay’s opponents. It might be a little bit of a distraction for his new team, but at least they have a quarterback. The Chiefs come in with their two best options at the position on ice for the season. Tyler Thigpen is their guy this week until Quinn Gray provides them with the best quarterback play this year once he learns the offense. Based on what we’ve seen so far he’ll be lucky to complete half of his passes for maybe 120-150 yards. New York has struggled in pass defense, but does it really make a difference? If the winds at the Meadowlands kick in it could get ugly.

Then there is the matter of suspended running back Larry Johnson. It was good to see him apologize. However, his teammates are in a terrible spot this week against New York’s run defense allowing 3.2 yards per carry, fourth best in the NFL. Rookie Jamaal Charles has only 24 carries on the season. Kolby Smith saw extended action last season, but wasn’t very productive when not facing the Raiders averaging 2.8 yards on 91 carries when they weren’t the opponent. Let’s see, can’t run and can’t pass right? Are they praying for touchdowns on special teams? The Jets have a solid running game averaging 4.5 yards per carry and taken on the NFL’s worst defense (5.6) giving up nearly 40 more yards per game (207.2) than any other team. Teams run on them an NFL high 36.8 times per game because, well, they’re beating the tar out of them. Favre will do whatever he wants against this defense as a result and it’s over before it gets started. The only question is how soon Edwards joins the Bay Area coaches on the fired list: NY Jets 31, Kansas City 6

Atlanta (4-2) @ Philadelphia (3-3): pick PHI -7.5/under 46

Wait a minute. The Falcons have a better record than the Eagles? Remind me which team is starting a rookie quarterback and which has one who has gone to the NFC Championship Game four times. That’s what I thought, but it’s still weird. Atlanta has had a week off to bask in their hot start although it did cost them first place when their rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina won. Philadelphia is also rested off their bye week and trying to straighten quit allowing so many points. This defense is better than the 24, 23 and 26 allowed in their last three games, two of which resulted in losses. Their opponent has survived jus fine despite allowing 20+ points in five of their six games with a 3-2 record when the defense isn’t stout. Philly is 1-3 under the same circumstances. In other words if we see a relatively high scoring game the rookie Ryan might be able to outmaneuver the veteran McNabb.

With all due respect the big showdown is Atlanta’s rushing offense (5.0 per carry, #2 in NFL) against Philadelphia’s rushing defense (3.5, #5). The duo of free agent acquisition Michael Turner and incumbent, still underutilized stud Jerious Norwood has produced the #2 ranked ground attack in the NFL as the pair has combined for 877 yards and 7 touchdowns with 5.25 yards every time one of them gets the ball. The best way to score an upset on the road is to establish the run. It’s easier said than done.

Philly counters through the air, even if their passes are short. They run just 23.3 times per game, the fifth lowest total in the NFL. Their spark plug Brian Westbrook is expected to play. Also back is wide receiver Kevin Curtis and with rookie DeSean Jackson leading the team in receiving it couldn’t come at a better time. Here are the things I know. The Eagles can stop Ryan through the air with a loaded secondary, freeing up defenders to stop the run. On the other side Philly should be able to beat up Atlanta’s defense behind McNabb and (hopefully for my sake) Westbrook: Philadelphia 26, Atlanta 14

Cincinnati (0-7) @ Houston (2-4): pick HOU -9/under 46.5

The Bengals have just about quit on the season. They say your record doesn’t lie, but sometimes it does. They have been in a lot of football games and simply couldn’t get in done in the second half. It is easy to look at last week’s 38-10 loss against Pittsburgh and think they were blown out. It was a 17-10 game with less than 9 minutes to play, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Then things got so out of hand Carson Palmer’s little brother Jordan was called in for the final series. Pretty soon it might be smart to throw big brother on IR and give him a look because obviously the playoffs are out of the question. Why risk your franchise? Two short weeks ago the Texans were in a similar spot at 0-4. Their playoff prospects would jumpstart in a hurry by winning this game. Only one team (New England) is 4-2 so they are one game behind the final spot.

A big part of Houston’s recent success is running the football. Rookie Steve Slaton gets lost in what is looking like a historically good crop of rookie backs, but he has 15+ carries over the past three weeks for 231 yards and an average of 4.81. The third round pick is #3 on the rookie rushing list ahead of first round selections Darren McFadden (Oakland) Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) and now injured Felix Jones (Dallas). Only two teams have been run on more times per game than Cincinnati and their 4.4 average allowed reflects that. Teams wear them down, and if Ahman Green is really awoken from his slumber to chip in it could spell another long day for their front line. On the other side I don’t think Cedric Benson being back in the state of Texas is enough to light his fire given that the Bengals gain an NFL low 3.2 yards per carry.

In the air Cincinnati is deceivingly good against the pass because they have the eighth fewest attempts against yet have managed to give up 10 touchdown passes, sixth most, and a healthy completion percentage (63.2). The Texans are worse on defense, but the Fitzpatrick factor will make it hard for them to capitalize. In three games he has thrown for 156, 152 and 164 yards with 2 total touchdowns so I think we can figure out what to expect. Schaub is dare I say on fire? He missed the Indianapolis loss, but has thrown for 307, 379 and 267 his past three outings with 6 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. Both picks came in the win over Miami and he has thrown 113 passes in those games. I have never thought this was a bad team, just stuck in a tough division where they are now 0-3 with a pair of losses by 3 and 4 points. Outside of the division they will surge: Houston 30, Cincinnati 13

Cleveland (2-4) @ Jacksonville (3-3): pick JAX -7/under 42

The Browns are yet another team dealing with an issue off the field, a trend that seems to be spreading. Kellen Winslow is suspended although as I’m typing this he has appealed. When your team has scored their first two wins of the season and was a missed field goal away from forcing OT this is not a welcome distraction. The season is on the line now more than ever. The Jaguars are much less distracted, and mark it down they are ready to make a run at this. Coming off their bye week center Brad Meester and guard Chris Naeole are back in the fold for the first time this season. For a team that thrives running the ball two interior linemen healthy will make a huge difference. In other words, buy low if you can with Maurice Jones-Drew on your fantasy football team.

Without them the team is stuck in the middle of the pack averaging 4.1 yards per carry, but has still been able to get wins against three teams who can’t stop the run very well (Denver, Indianapolis, Houston). The Browns give up 4.8 yards per carry, fifth highest in the NFL. Jacksonville’s next problem is stopping the run. Usually their strength, this season they are in the bottom 10 giving up 4.5 per carry. Teams don’t run on them very much though and an aging by the minute Jamal Lewis leads a team with a low average overall (3.8). The biggest impact here is that Jacksonville should be controlling the clock. Cleveland’s best shot is more of Derek Anderson on MNF (310 yards passing) and less of him last week (14/37). Brady Quinn might be doing more than starring in commercials with this team averaging more passing yards than only Tennessee, a team that never throws the ball, and Seattle who has no receivers and now a backup quarterback. The Jags are at least vulnerable in the air if Cleveland can get on the field. Meanwhile the Browns can make a difference with pass defense (9 interceptions) if they ever stop the run. I’m not sure either will matter in this one: Jacksonville 24, Cleveland 16

NY Giants (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (5-1): pick NYG +3/under 44

Count me among those who didn’t believe coming into the season New York would have a shot at repeating. Right now, I’ll second that opinion. Until now they have made their way against a very weak list of opponents. Even at that they struggled to beat Cincinnati, were hammered by Cleveland and looked vulnerable against San Francisco at times on the brink of the 49ers firing their coach. The Steelers have faced two of the same opponents, but beat Cleveland and trashed Cincinnati. Their loss came to a very capable Eagles team, not to mention wins over Baltimore and Jacksonville who are otherwise 3-2. Pittsburgh is also home for the first time in the month after two wins sandwiched around a bye. New York had their dominant run away from the Meadowlands shattered on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, the aforementioned 35-14 loss to Cleveland.

The question is how these teams follow up their division leading starts because no one cares where you were before Halloween. It’s New Year’s Day that matters. The Giants have the pressure of three quality teams chasing them while the Steelers are possibly a month away from starting to focus on a playoff bye week. Just like the earlier game on the other side of the state, the visitor’s bring a strong running game against a tough run defense. This is an even bigger showdown with the Giants by far #1 in yards per carry (5.6) and the Steelers #2 (2.9) trying to stop them. Highlighting the disparity, New York has gained exactly 100 more yards per game (169.7) than Pittsburgh has allowed (69.7). There likely will be some middle ground there because Coughlin isn’t going to abandon the run with his talented backfield. The home team gets a boost with Hampton expected back in the lineup.

Despite missing their two best running backs Mewelde Moore is capable of balancing Pittsburgh’s offense with some hard running. In the past two games he has ripped off 5.92 yards per carry and 219 yards. Before getting injured Willie Parker had a 4.0 average. The Steelers have a solid passing game going up against a pretty good pass defense. On the other side of it Eli Manning faces a Pittsburgh defense ranked #1 in passing yards allowed despite facing the seventh most passes in the NFL. They also have an NFL high 25 sacks, but New York is second with 21. The disparity in sacks allowed is bigger with New York giving up 6, third best in the NFL, to Pittsburgh’s 19 for sixth most. Still, both quarterbacks will be pressured. This one is going to be fun. I can’t fall back on my staple of taking the better quarterback, the home team or even the better running game. I simply believe the Steelers are more physical right now, as evidenced by their top wide receiver getting fined for vicious hits. It’s more meaningful than his opposite number throwing footballs into the stands. The real bummer is that because of the World Series this won’t be in primetime: Pittsburgh 17, NY Giants 16

Seattle (1-5) @ San Francisco (2-5): pick SF -4.5/under 42

It’s serious when your coach is fired a week before a bye. Even the Raiders waited until their open week before canning Lane Kiffin. Making matters worse, the team did it knowing Mike Holmgren was leading his Seahawks into town this week. He has serious ties to this area and team, and has already announced 2008 is his final season leading Seattle. This opening has forced him to repeat his intention to sit out 2009. Honestly, the 49ers should be thinking they have got their man. I was surprised to see Mike Singletary not chosen to lead a team sooner than this. His attitude reminds me of Bill Cowher who had consistent success leading the Steelers, culminating in a Super Bowl XL win.

Back to the field, unless I missed one this is the first rematch of the season. It is pretty much beyond argument that Detroit is the worst team in the NFC. The next three on the list are the West teams other than Arizona. The 49ers have only beaten those winless Lions and these Seahawks, 33-30 in the first meeting. The Seahawks got over on the other sad team in this division, the Rams, when they were starting the season 0-4. When these teams first met O’Sullivan got the better of Hasselbeck by a mile, or at least double his QB rating (106.4-42.5) when he threw for 321 yards without a turnover and his much more experienced counterpart completed just 50% of his passes with 2 interceptions. The following week O’Sullivan also had no turnovers, but in four games since has 12 and has been sacked a ridiculous 29 times this season. That would amount to 66 if he holds this pace, the most since 2005 when David Carr went down 68. In 2006 Martz led Detroit offense which saw Kitna taken out 63 times. Is this a coincidence?

At home I typically like the 49ers and the inspiration of Singletary only tilts me more in that direction. I think both teams can run a little bit in this one. Maybe the Seahawks are better off on paper and they did win the first battle (169-93, 5.0-4.0 average rush). Home field will even it out. Seattle’s secondary has been beaten deep in recent weeks and will be again. I like the progression of Josh Morgan and I’m starting to wonder how good Virginia Tech might have been last season with a better quarterback considering the start of his fellow Hokie receiver Eddie Royal. I like Seneca Wallace filling in on a good team, but this is far from that: San Francisco 24, Seattle 13

Indianapolis (3-3) @ Tennessee (6-0): pick TEN -3/under 42

I just realized I have picked the Colts to win every time this season, so they are responsible for three my misses. I keep waiting for them to turn it on, but injuries have held them down. It is hard to call this the overused “must win” game, but in terms of winning the AFC South I would say it is. The Titans are a team I picked to lose twice and I have had a difficult team backing a team winning with a one dimensional offense at times. These teams are responsible for 5 of my 41 misses on the season so take this prediction with a grain of salt. I do like that Tennessee does on defense. They are first in scoring defense at 11.0 points per game and have yet to allow a team over 17. Meanwhile they have scored 30+ three times. Benched starter Vince Young has appeared in 31 games and got them to that total just 4 times.

The Colts are high scoring right? Eh, not so much this season. They did roll up 31 in consecutive wins over Houston and Baltimore, leading me to believe they would beat the Packers last week. Instead they scored 14 and lost in their third game failing to top 18 points this season. In 18 games from the end of the 2006 regular season through 2007 they failed to 21 points just once. History is on their side having won 8 of 10 in the series, but more recent history is splitting the series the past two seasons including 1-1 for both teams at home.

The Titans are not a mystery. They win games running the football right at you. Did you see LenDale White busting up the middle on Kansas City? I had time to grab a soda before he finally scored. Teams attack Indianapolis on the ground a lot. With 34.8 rushing attempts against they rank ahead of only Cincinnati, Detroit and Kansas City who are a combined 1-18. Those teams are getting crushed when teams run on them. Indy will be lucky if they aren’t crushed in this game. They are going to lose the rushing battle badly. Their running back situation is down to Rhodes and goes up against a stout run defense. It’s up to Manning excelling and a defense without Sanders to force a mistake out of Collins. Oh yeah. Tennessee is fifth with 179.0 passing yards allowed and has 10 interceptions with only 1 touchdown pass given up. The Colts are better in yardage (175.5) but that’s because they’re fifth lowest in attempts against, and they’re second worst in completion percentage allowed (68.1). It’s a mismatch, but if I’m wrong you’ll know why: Tennessee 23, Indianapolis 17